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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Economics

Tuesday, February 07, 2017

Bad News For Stock Bulls.. the US is Sliding Into Recession / Economics / Recession 2017

By: Graham_Summers

While the financial media was applauding last week’s jobs number, those of us who actually look into the details can tell you that the report was complete fiction.

The headline number of 227,000 was largely crafted through seasonal adjustments, NOT actual job creation. At a minimum 170,000 of those jobs were created in an excel spreadsheet by bean counters, NOT by businesses hiring.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, February 07, 2017

SPX is Stretched, But Hanging On / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

It appears that the alternate view of the SPX may not apply even though the NDX and DJIA both made higher highs. Both needed fifth Wave completion, while it appears that SPX is already complete as an Ending diagonal.

There appears to be no sell signal yet. We’ll know it when the market breaks.

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Commodities

Tuesday, February 07, 2017

Gold and Crude Oil Link – What Does It Say? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadia_Simmons

Trading position (short-term; our opinion): Short positions (with a stop-loss order at $56.45 and an initial downside target at $45.81) are justified from the risk/reward perspective.

On Monday, crude oil lost 1.52% after oil investors reacted to Friday’s Baker Hughes’ report, which showed that U.S. drillers added 17 rigs, which was the 13th increase in the past 14 weeks. Thanks to this news light crude reversed and declined to the previously-broken short-term support/resistance line. Will it manage to stop oil bears in the coming days? Is it possible that the relationship between gold and crude oil give us more clues about oil’s future moves?

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Politics

Tuesday, February 07, 2017

America’s Aging Demographics / Politics / Demographics

By: Rodney_Johnson

It was a long time ago, way back in 1950.

The United States was recovering from World War II while facing down a new enemy, China, on the Korean Peninsula. We were an exporting powerhouse that fortunately escaped the war with all of our production capacity intact. And, our population was experiencing a baby boom.

We were growing our wealth, expanding our military capabilities, and increasing our population. Even after the ravages of war, we had a tremendous group of workers 20 to 49 years old, and an explosion of babies on the way.

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Politics

Tuesday, February 07, 2017

We’re Seeing More of Trump Reaction than Action / Politics / Immigration

By: Harry_Dent

Look. Economy & Markets isn’t a political newsletter, and I typically stay away from talking about it – people are touchy on the subject, and it’s the quickest way to make enemies.

Yet I find myself writing about Trump again! It’s like I just can’t escape the man.

Of course, I can choose not to write about him, and instead write about any number of other important things… but I don’t think that would be valuable to you because everything that The Donald has done so far connects directly back to the research and the heart of our operation: demographics and cycles.

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Companies

Tuesday, February 07, 2017

Major Banks Are Now Bullish for the First Time in Close to a Decade / Companies / Banking Stocks

By: The_Gold_Report

Chinese and European economic activities are finally showing signs of strength, and in 2017, any severe corrections should be viewed as opportunities to position more strategically for long-term gains, says Lior Gantz, editor of Wealth Research Group.

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Politics

Tuesday, February 07, 2017

Fake and False and Just Plain Nonsense News / Politics / US Politics

By: Raul_I_Meijer

Two and a half weeks after the inauguration, and yes it’s only been that long, the media still don’t seem to have learned a single thing. They help the Trump campaign on an almost hourly basis by parroting whatever things, invariably judged as crazy, he says. One day it’s that negative polls are all fake news, the next it’s some list of underreported terror events. All of it gets an avalanche of attention provided by the very people who claim to be against Trump, but greatly help his cause by doing so.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, February 07, 2017

SPX Rallies. Will Stock Market Make a New High? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

Good Morning!

SPX futures are higher this morning, although they have not broken out above last Friday’s high at 2298.31. It has missed that possibility by only 25 ticks, so there is still a chance that we may see a higher print this morning.

Given the rally after what appears to be an a-b-c decline yesterday, the odds are better than even we may see a new high this morning. The Cycles Model suggests it may happen in the first two hours of the day. I have placed the alternate Wave structure on the chart for our consideration. The target may be the “natural” target I gave last week at 2305.00, or possibly higher, should the rally have any strength.

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Politics

Tuesday, February 07, 2017

Left Coast Liberals Dream for Secession / Politics / US Politics

By: BATR

As the consequences of losing control of the federal government seeps into their delusional entitlement, the ultimate statists of the Left scamper to find a method to regain power.  A concept, whose day is gaining acceptance, is the Nation of Pacifica. With the incompatibility between the Trump Nation deplorables and the intolerant collectivists of Leftist state worshipers, the end game is rapidly approaching a final conflict that easily could erupt in a real civil war. Leave it to the beautiful people; their fantasia screen play scripts a peaceful dissolution of the disjointed union.  A sample of their dialectic:

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, February 07, 2017

Stock Market Nowhere to Go / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017

By: Ed_Carlson

Continue to look for an important top in the Dow near February 10.  As the Dow returned to near our price target (20,133) last Friday, this week is set to be a sideways consolidation as equities "spin their wheels" waiting for the big event to commence. Although the Lindsay work would have us erring later than earlier, equities may begin their drop earlier than forecast if they have nowhere to go but down.

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Companies

Tuesday, February 07, 2017

The Danger of Being Bearish in a Stocks Bull Market / Companies / Company Chart Analysis

By: Clif_Droke

One of the biggest contributors to losses for traders in the financial market is the temptation to sell short. Borrowing shares of a company that are not owned by the seller in the hopes of making a massive profit has shipwrecked more traders than probably any other factor. With stories abounding of the quick and easy profits to be made in selling stocks which are supposedly on the verge of plummeting, it's no wonder that the allure of "shorting" is so irresistible to so many.

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ConsumerWatch

Tuesday, February 07, 2017

Vauxhall Zafira B Fires Second Recall DVSA Offence Warning Letters! / ConsumerWatch / Auto Sector

By: HGR

The Zafira saga or nightmare continues as after an abysmally poor implementation of the first recall, apparently Vauxhall has either become more efficient or has hit the panic button in response to more Zafira B's bursting into flames. The latest is a threatening recorded delivery letter warning of amongst things of an offence for not arranging for a prompt recall!

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Economics

Monday, February 06, 2017

Why the Fed Gets Economics Wrong / Economics / Economic Theory

By: John_Mauldin

Economics (in general) is populated at its core by a lot of bad ideas. And these bad ideas have come to be accepted as the correct interpretation of how the economy functions and thus have become the basis for economic policy. This news shouldn’t come as a shock since I’ve written about this many times over the years in Thoughts from the Frontline.

Economics is an enormously useful tool for those of us who are trying to understand business and investments and government policy. But to paraphrase Dirty Harry, “An economist has to know his limitations.”

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Economics

Monday, February 06, 2017

A Non-Existent US Economic Recovery! / Economics / US Economy

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Where is this economic boom that Former President Obama and his administration had taken so much credit for?

The Obama Administration, with the assistance of the Federal Reserve and Company, deliberately kept the U.S. economy from creating any growth at all.  The money that flowed from the Federal Reserve, over the last 8 years, had a direct pipeline that flowed only into Wall Street Investment Banks. The American people were sold this false bill of sale that “Quantitative Easing” was going to make lending money to “Main Street America” easier to access. They promised that there would be a boost in hiring which would, in turn, increase aggregate demand and thereby reflect a newly stimulated economic growth!

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Politics

Monday, February 06, 2017

Health Tourism Cripples NHS, Nationwide Winter Crisis Paralysis / Politics / NHS

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The mainstream press has been reporting on the unfolding NHS crisis over the winter months, one of a building paralysis in the NHS that in large part has its roots in EU out of control immigration and wide spread health tourism abuse that in large part is of african origin. Where people who are ill come to the UK for FREE treatment on the NHS and thus clog up thousands of much needed beds for months at a time, health tourism impacts the NHS across the whole spectrum of services from maternity wards upwards across all age groups costing billions and crippling NHS services.

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Politics

Monday, February 06, 2017

Carnage of the Middle Class / Politics / Social Issues

By: Michael_Pento

In President Donald J. Trump's inaugural address he promised, "This American carnage stops right here and stops right now." And immediately liberals and the MSM took umbrage to his use of the word carnage, which means the slaughter of a large number of people, claiming it was just too dark a description for America. Maybe so. However, in a recent Bloomberg commentary, Justin Fox cites some sobering statistics that support Trump's statement.

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Commodities

Monday, February 06, 2017

Gold Price Trend Forecast, Where are the Gold Traders? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: Bob_Loukas

This is the 3rd piece on gold that highlights how unloved gold remains today.  Considering the 2016 rally in gold and the turbulent times we now find ourselves in, to be honest I'm rather surprised there are not significantly more gold traders all over this market. Part 1 and Part 2 cover the initial stages of this rally from the December lows. Below is an excerpt from the Financial Tap Member weekly weekend report.

I am rather surprised to read across the blogosphere how a majority of Gold Traders appear to discount and undermine the current gold market. I can appreciate that the longer term cyclical outlook remains unresolved, but in the short-term at least, I believe the gold sector looks to be in great shape.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, February 06, 2017

SP500 Index Got Closer To Record High - Will The Uptrend Continue? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017

By: Paul_Rejczak

Briefly: In our opinion, speculative short positions are favored (with stop-loss at 2,330, and profit target at 2,150, S&P 500 index).

Our intraday outlook remains bearish, and our short-term outlook is bearish. Our medium-term outlook remains neutral, following S&P 500 index breakout above last year's all-time high:

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Commodities

Monday, February 06, 2017

US Dollar and Gold Markets Update / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: SurfCity

As longer Cycles typically dominate shorter ones, this update will provide both longer and shorter views on the USD and Gold. Why the two together?  Obviously due to the negative correlation. No correlation works all the time, however, and I fully expect to see periods where the USD and Gold rise and perhaps fall together. That said, the correlation has been fairly strong over the past year so I find it best to sometimes cover these assets together.

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Commodities

Monday, February 06, 2017

CRB Commodities Index Deep Dive / Commodities / CRB Index

By: SurfCity

If you are going to trade the commodity sector, you had best follow the USD, which is why I do. If I am correct that the USD’s longer 15 Year Super Cycle is toping in 2017, then the CRB will be a fun sector where we will focus.

With respect to Weinstein’s 4 Stage Model, here is a great site that is the best I have found that covers his model quite well.

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