Sunday, November 14, 2021
Silver Previous Trend Forecast Recap / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Nadeem_Walayat
My last in-depth Silver analysis:
29th Jan 2020 - Silver Price Trend Forecast 2020
Initially I am expecting a very volatile trading range between a low of $16.50 to a high of $19 for the next 3 months or so, following which the Silver price 'should' respond to a Gold price rally and follow the yellow metal higher. The trends not going to be pretty but I expect Silver to trade above $20, and likely reach a peak near $21 later in the year as the forecast graph illustrates.
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Sunday, November 14, 2021
US Economy in Economic Depression Since 2008 / Economics / Economic Depression
By: Nadeem_Walayat
You know the US GDP growth rate we are all bombarded with to illustrate the strength or weakness of the US economy, we'll it is just as FAKE as that which vomits out of the likes of the CCP.
The Fed states US real GDP is currently +12% year on year . Now consider this, what inflation measure do you think the Fed is using to calculate these GDP figures? CPI? WRONG! GDP price deflator which tends to consistently under estimate inflation even against CPI as the following graph illustrates.
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Sunday, November 14, 2021
Inflation to the Moon - Gold Wears a Space Suit! / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Inflation rears its ugly head, surging at the fastest pace since 1990. The yellow metal has finally reacted as befits an inflation hedge: went up.Do you know what ambivalence is? It is a state of having two opposing feelings at the same time –this is exactly how I feel now. Why? Well, the latest BLS report on inflation shows that consumer inflation surged in October, which is something I hate because it lowers the purchasing power of money, deteriorating the financial situation of most people, especially the poorest and the least educated who don’t know how to protect against rising prices.
On the other hand, I feel satisfaction, as it turned out that I was right in claiming that high inflation would be more persistent than the pundits claimed. After the September report on inflation, I wrote: “I’m afraid that consumer inflation could increase even further in the near future”. Sieron vs. Powell: 1:0!
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Sunday, November 14, 2021
Focus on Stock Market Real Gains / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Monica_Kingsley
S&P 500 declined, and not enough buyers arrived in my view. Still, we‘re likely to see a brief pause in selling, and that‘s giving the bulls a chance. Credit markets were a bit too beaten down by the troubled 30-year Treasury auction and Evergrande moving into the spotlight somewhat again. VIX managed another upswing, and doesn‘t point to the S&P 500 having gotten to an excessively bearish positioning just yet.
I think some treading the water before stocks make up their mind, is most likely next. The downswing doesn‘t appear to be totally over, but we have arguably seen the greater part of it already. Tech isn‘t yet stabilized, but the increasing volume spells a pause in selling. I‘m still looking for clues to the bond markets.
And it‘s clear that not even higher rates can sink the precious metals run – neither the late day rush to the dollar had that power. Miners continue behaving, and their daily black candle doesn‘t scare me – the realization of inflation not having peaked, and being as stubborn as I had been pounding the table since eternity, is working its magic:
(…) inflation expectations are moving higher – the more you shorten the maturity, the higher they go, let alone RINF, their key ETF. Markets will be proven very wrong about the transitory inflation complacency – inflation rates aren‘t going to decline if you just leave them alone. And taper coupled with rate hikes hesitancy won‘t do the trick either.
S&P 500 is still primed to go higher – the only question is the shape of the current consolidation. Liquidity is still ample, the banking sector is strong, and the Russell 2000 isn‘t really retreating.
Precious metals are consolidating – it‘s almost a pre-CPI ritual, but under the surface, the pressure to go higher keeps building. I‘m looking for a strong Dec in gold and silver, with unyielding oil and copper gradually waking up. Cryptos aren‘t taking prisoners either.
Crude oil is well bid in the $78 till $80 zone, and would overcome $85 – we aren‘t looking at a reversal, but at temporary upside rejection. Likewise copper would kick in with vengeance, and the shallow crypto consolidations are barely worth mentioning at all.
Sunday, November 14, 2021
Gold Price Reaches 15-Month Flag Apex / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Since the start of the COVID-19 virus event, Gold has rallied more than +26% to reach highs near $2090 on August 7, 2020. Yet, over the past 15 months, Gold has been trailing downward in a sideways price pattern. This price rotation has set up a very broad Pennant/Flag formation in Gold that has recently reached the APEX of the Flag setup.
This is very important for two reasons. First, as the global central banks begin to plan and prepare for more normalized monetary policy, and address credit excesses and inflationary price concerns, the advantages of Gold as a hedging instrument become more valuable. Secondarily, after a massive rise in asset prices and an even bigger global attempt to stimulate the economy after the COVID-19 virus event, the world has never been in this scenario. Near-zero interest rates, excessive amounts of money and credit throughout the world, asset prices showing near hyper-inflation trends, and the global central banks taking very little action to address any future economic concerns.
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Sunday, November 14, 2021
US Economy & Stock Market Addicted to Deficit Spending / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Want to know what's driving the stock market into the stratosphere? US Deficit Spending! (actually twin deficits including Trade).
Here's the Dow divided by the annual US budget deficit. Usually the lower the reading the better the prospects for the stock market because the stocks are being fuelled by rampant money printing deficit spending that is being monetized by he central bank on an epic scale.
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Saturday, November 13, 2021
UK Inflation Soaring into the Stratosphere, Real rate Probably 20% Per Annum / Economics / Inflation
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Forget the official UK inflation indices which are just as fake as those in the US and those that spew out of the CCP, a year ago I estimated the REAL rate of UK inflation was 16%, today I estimate it to be near 20%! But that is the average amidst that there will be huge variances with the price of many goods, materials and services more than doubling! Case in point being UK energy / natural gas prices which have doubled and are on their way to tripling as the pieces of turd energy companies FAILED to HEDGE prices as they crept higher during the summer months because they knew at the end of the day they could just walk away from their contracts with customers, shut up shop and reopen under a slightly different name with the same staff and premises, WHAT A SCAM!
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Saturday, November 13, 2021
Stock Market AI mega-trend Stocks Big Picture / Stock-Markets / Tech Stocks
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Just pause for a moment and take in the chart in this video - the message one should be receiving loud and clear is that I expect this bull market to run for many more years, whilst my best guess a year ago was that it would top in early 2027, as long as run away valuations moderate during 2022 then I don't see why this should still not remain as the big picture, thus the bull market could extend to 18 years from it's March 2009 low!
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Saturday, November 13, 2021
Emerging Markets: How to Get a Grip on "Chaos of History" / Economics / Emerging Markets
By: EWI
Hi reader,
The MSCI Emerging Markets Index is composed of 1,400 stocks from 27 nations. You'd think that the trillions of buy/sell decisions from across the region would result in a chaotic-looking chart.
But the opposite is true.
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Saturday, November 13, 2021
China Singles' Day - Toward Double 11 Record Sales, Despite Economic Uncertainties / Economics / China Economy
By: Dan_Steinbock
As the world’s largest e-commerce market, China is likely to continue growing faster relative to North America and Western Europe. Singles’ Day 2021 will reflect that expansion.
Before the Singles Day, some observers thought that recent growth deceleration and continued regulatory scrutiny could dampen e-commerce in 2021. Yet, the full-year results may prove not that different from the past year.
On October 20, Alibaba and JD.com kicked promotions off already on October 20 since they are no longer restricted to a 24-hour time window. Last year, Alibaba’s Tmall reported sales of $78 billion in the first 10 days of November; 26 percent more than the previous year. This year, the Double 11 turnover is expected to increase solidly in absolute terms, even if the growth rate slows, due to last year’s high base.
In times of uncertainty, consumers are more cost-conscious. Due to broad discounts and promotions, that is expected to translate record sales during the Singles Day.
Saturday, November 13, 2021
Tips For Investment Success / InvestorEducation / Learning to Invest
By: Mark_Adan
We live in an information society - however, the information that we receive cannot always be relied upon. That information is supplied by the mass media and is often the product of pundits in cyberspace - that obviously might not be those who are the best sources of information. However - as a logical human being you may very well have more logical ideas. But - even given that insight there are some hints and tips that can provide guidelines that will improve the performance of your portfolio.
So here are some hints and tips from those who know a portfolio and how to make it provide them with an income in a time of high uncertainty.
There is a tremendous amount of information that is available to those who want to enter into the realm of cyberspace. The print media still has a gravitas that is not easy to match. Then there are friends and family - and they can be tremendously influential in shaping your thoughts. Given all these inputs, how do we find that path towards a personal investment that actually delivers,
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Saturday, November 13, 2021
How To Shop For The Right Good Online Video Editor / Personal_Finance / Money Supply
By: Submissions
Not all video editing tools can give you high-quality videos. Remember, there are hundreds of tools online. Some of these tools are out to take your money. Some of these tools come with poor features. Getting the best videos from these tools isn’t easy. Thus, it’s important to do your homework property when shopping around for the right editor. Here are key things you should look for in a good video editor.
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Friday, November 12, 2021
Window OPEN! Budgie GONE! PANIC Search for LOST Budgie! / Politics / Animals & Pets
By: N_Walayat
Where’s the Budgie! Where’s the Blue Budgie! Left the budgies in the room with the window open and can not find the blue budgie, it’s GONE out of the open WINDOW!
Panic search begins for the budgie in the garden, is it in a tree, is it on the ground, has it hopped over the fence into the neighbour’s garden – WHERE IS IT???? PANIC!
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Friday, November 12, 2021
FREE TRADE the Best Stocks and Shares ISA? / Personal_Finance / Learning to Invest
By: Nadeem_Walayat
There is a UK based fractional share ISA solution called FREE TRADE, that similar to Etorro offers a commission free fractional shares platform that has two crucial differences that makes it a far better INVESTING platform to Etorro's TRADING platform.
1. An ISA tax free wrapper at a cost of £3 per month along with their FREE general investing account (non ISA). Though there is a way to offset their monthly fees completely via their plus account by keeping £4k in cash on account that earns 3% / £120 per annum..
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Friday, November 12, 2021
How Emerging Markets ETF Followed a Classic Elliott Wave Pattern / Stock-Markets / Emerging Markets
By: EWI
Here's what happened after the completion of a "bullish triangle"
A Charles Schwab survey shows that 15% of today's retail investors started investing in 2020.
And, regarding 2021, an August 2 CNBC headline said:
New investors are jumping into the market
So, when you combine the influx from this year and last, that adds up to a lot of new investors.
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Friday, November 12, 2021
How Strange! Gold Rises on Strong Payrolls! / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
US economy added 531,000 jobs in October, surpassing expectations. Gold reacted… in a bullish way, and jumped above $1,800!The October nonfarm payrolls came surprisingly strong. As the chart below shows, the US labor market added 531,000 jobs last month, much above the expectations (MarketWatch’s analysts forecasted 450,000 added jobs). So, it’s a nice change from the last two disappointing reports. What’s more, the August and September numbers were significantly revised up – by 235,000 combined. Let’s keep in mind that we also have the additions of 1,091,000 in July and 366,000 in August (after an upward revision).
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Friday, November 12, 2021
FREE TRADE FREE SHARE - What Stock Will You Get? IBM? Apple? AMD? Nvidia? Microsoft? Maybe Intel? / Personal_Finance / Investing 2021
By: HGR
Open an account with FREE TRADE, fund it with just £1 and you get a FREE SHARE worth between £3 and £200! Woooaaah! Apple? AMD? IBM? Nvidia? Microsoft even? If not what about Intel?
Find out you could actually expect to get for your FREE SHARE for FREE TRADE!
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Thursday, November 11, 2021
Financial Crisis 2.0 Checklist - China Crisis, Stagflation, Stocks Bubble, Reverse Repo... / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2021
By: Nadeem_Walayat
China's property market is collapsing but the only data we have at present is anecdotal from the property developer canaries in the coal mine which have been under extreme distress for several months, with now dozens defaulting on their debts triggering fire sales of housing stock to raise revenues as they desperately fight to stay alive in the face of impending debt and interest payments, playing their part in the brewing Financial Crisis 2.0.
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Thursday, November 11, 2021
Dow Stock Market Trend Analysis / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This is part 3 of my extensive analysis that maps out the stock markets trend into Mid 2022 - Stock Market FOMO Hits September Brick Wall - Dow Trend Forecast Sept 2021 to May 2022
Part 1 - Stock Market FOMO Going into Crash Season
Part 2 - Why Most Stocks May Go Nowhere for the Next 10 Years!
Contents:
- Stock Market Forecast 2021 Review
- Stock Market AI mega-trend Big Picture
- US Economy and Stock Market Addicted to Deficit Spending
- US Economy Has Been in an Economic Depression Since 2008
- Inflation and the Crazy Crypto Markets
- Inflation Consequences for the Stock Market
- FED Balance Sheet
- Weakening Stock Market Breadth
- Why Most Stocks May Go Nowhere for the Next 10 Years!
- FANG Stocks
- Margin Debt
- Dow Short-term Trend Analysis
- Dow Annual Percent Change
- Dow Long-term Trend Analysis
- ELLIOTT WAVES Analysis
- Stocks and 10 Year Bond Yields
- SEASONAL ANALYSIS
- Short-term Seasonal Trend
- US Presidential Cycle
- Best Time of Year to Invest in Stocks
- 2021 - 2022 Seasonal Investing Pattern
- Formulating a Stock Market Trend Forecast
- Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast Sept 2021 to May 2022 Conclusion
- Investing fundamentals
- IBM Continuing to Revolutionise Computing
- AI Stocks Portfolio Current State
- My Late October Stocks Buying Plan
- HIGH RISK STOCKS - Invest and Forget!
- Afghanistan The Next Chinese Province, Australia Living on Borrowed Time
- CHINA! CHINA! CHINA!
- Evergrande China's Lehman's Moment
- Aukus Ruckus
Thursday, November 11, 2021
Stock Market Great Profitable Runs / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Monica_Kingsley
S&P 500 pause goes on, and bonds support more of it to come. Tech keeps thus far the high ground gained, but value is showing signs of very short-term weakness – and yields haven‘t retreated yesterday really. The correct view of the stock market action is one of microrotations unfolding in a weakening environment – one increasingly fraught with downside risks.
To be clear, I‘m not looking for a sizable correction, but a very modest one both in time and price. It‘s a question of time, and I think it would be driven by tech weakness as the sector has reached lofty levels. It‘ll go higher over time still, but this is the time for value and smallcaps in the medium term.
The dollar though isn‘t putting much pressure on stock, commodity or precious metals prices at the moment – such were my yesterday‘s words:
(…) when the dollar starts rolling over to the downside (I‘m looking at the early Dec debt ceiling drama to trigger it off), emerging markets would love that. And commodities with precious metals too, of course – sensing the upcoming greenback weakness has been part and parcel of the gold and silver resilience of late. Precious metals are only getting started, but the greatest fireworks would come early spring 2022 when the Fed‘s failure to act on inflation becomes broadly acknowledged.
For now, they‘re still getting away with the transitory talking points, and chalking it down to supply chain issues. As if these could solve the balance sheet expansion or fresh (most probably again short-dated) Treasuries issuance (come Dec) – the Fed is also way behind other central banks in raising rates. Canada, Mexico and many others have already moved while UK and Australia are signalling readiness – the U.S. central bank is joined by ECB in hesitating.
And that‘s what precious metals would be increasingly sniffing out. Commodities are joining in the post-taper celebrations, and my prior Tuesday‘s market assessments are coming to fruition one by one. Oil is swinging higher and hasn‘t topped, copper is coming back to life, and cryptos aren‘t in a waiting mood either.