Sunday, February 14, 2016

Is this the start of a run in Precious Metals? We think not / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: Donald_W_Dony

On the backs of a short-term weakness in the U.S. dollar, precious metals have made a sizable advance in the last few weeks.

Gold prices have jumped 17% and silver has increased over 12%.

Sunday, February 14, 2016

What is Gold Telling Us? MAP WAVE ANALYSIS / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: Marc_Horn

Cycle analysis is something that is not well understood and reinforces that markets are not propelled by any form of intrinsic value of anything, including gold and money! They are propelled by expectations of the future and nothing else!

So starting with that we will look at what the analysis says, and then we can look at how that fits in with human behaviour, because that is what drives prices which reflect nothing more than investors future expectations!

Sunday, February 14, 2016

GOLD In Two Words - BULL MARKET / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: Denali_Guide

BULL MARKET = 2 Words
     We know it bottomed in Jul 2013.  Really !!!
Lets go back to October of 2015 when this appeared on this blog.

GOLD NOW IS U$D 1336 - FIGURED IN COIN SHOPS FRIDAYS CLOSE WAS 1310 U$D, SO IT CORRELATES TO THE REAL WORLD, SINCE THE COIN SHOP PRICE IS F.O.B. COIN SHOP

Saturday, February 13, 2016

France CAC40 Stock Market Technical Outlook / Stock-Markets / European Stock Markets

By: Austin_Galt

The French stock index, the CAC40, has traded more or less as outlined in analysis produced back in May 2015. That analysis called the top in place and outlined expectations of a bear market to play out.

Price hit a low this past week at 3892 which was just over 26% down from the May 2015 high and I believe that may well represent the final low to the bear market.

Saturday, February 13, 2016

Stock Market Rally Time Off Retest?.......Still Some Positive Divergences... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Jack_Steiman

If we study the market charts we can see quite clearly that we're seeing bear-market action. That said, you can't go straight down forever. The Nasdaq fell 18% in just six weeks. By any bear-market measurement this is too much too fast. Price isn't the problem. It's the speed of the move along with price. Such a short time frame to have that size of a loss without some type of exhaustion. One would think anyway. There are missing ingredients to a short-term bottom, such I have recently discussed. Nothing with regards to a high put-call ratio for several hours over 1.5. No trin at 3.0 or higher, and clearly no dramatic VIX spike.

Saturday, February 13, 2016

Potential Stocks Bear Market Uptrend Underway / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market

By: Tony_Caldaro

Another wild week! The market started the week at SPX 1880. After a gap down opening on Monday the market dropped to SPX 1828, but reversed course in the afternoon. By Wednesday it turned slightly positive for the week when hitting SPX 1882. Thursday, however, started off with a gap down opening as the market hit a new downtrend low at SPX 1810. By late Thursday into Friday the market was rallying back up again, and ended the week at SPX 1865. For the week the SPX/DOW were -1.10%, the NDX/NAZ were -0.55%, and the DJ World index was -2.70%. Economic reports for the week were biased negatively again. On the uptick: retail sales, business inventories, GNP, plus the budget and weekly jobless claims improved. On the downtick: wholesale inventories, export/import prices, consumer sentiment, investor sentiment and the WLEI. Next week, after a Monday holiday, we get reports on Industrial production, FOMC minutes, the Housing market and it’s Options expiration.

Saturday, February 13, 2016

Seasonal Gold Price Correction on the Way / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: Submissions

Goldvybe writes: Not much has changed since our gold correction commentary post on the 10th (here) except that gold had spiked up to $1263 on Thursday after global equities weakness and continued fears about European banks.

The fib retracements have stayed pretty much the same except now moving up a bit. For the most part, our analysis has not changed as we still anticipate a move lower from the seasonal February high into a seasonal low (March-April) of between $1130-$1150.

Saturday, February 13, 2016

Gold’s Macrocosm: The Planets Align / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: Gary_Tanashian

We introduced the graphical view of the preferred counter-cyclical environment for gold and especially the gold stock sector in July:  Macrocosm.  We have updated the view several times since at NFTRH.com, with the macro backdrop getting more and more supportive of the gold sector over the last half a year.

Saturday, February 13, 2016

SPX Challenging its Orthodox Broadening Top Formation / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

SPX at the hourly level is still challenging its Orthodox Broadening Top formation. Earlier I had reported that I was expecting two Primary Pivot days. The first was Wednesday where SPX made the Wave B high at 1881.60. The second was today, where it appears to be making a Wave [ii] high that may be complete at 1864.28.

Saturday, February 13, 2016

Gold New Bull Market on Track / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

Last week we focused on the gold stocks. There was more initial evidence of a new bull market there than in Gold. However, Thursday Gold erased some doubts as it rocketed above $1200/oz and to as high as $1264/oz before settling a bit lower. That move puts Gold's recovery on par with those following past major lows and offers greater confirmation that a new bull market is underway.

Saturday, February 13, 2016

HUI Gold Stocks …Meet Me at The Bottomz Inn ? / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2016

By: Rambus_Chartology

This is the Question on Everyone’s mind .

Earlier this week we looked at the expanding triangle as a possible reversal pattern as it was testing the top rail with a beakout gap. The next two days saw the HUI decline back down to the top of the double bottom hump at 139 where it found support. Yesterdays price action took out the top rail of the expanding triangle again. Today the HUI backtested the top rail around the 155 area and is bouncing. There is no doubt the PM complex is overbought but we now have two possible reversal patterns in play. The double bottom which was the first pattern that showed itself and now the expanding triangle which has an odd number of reversal points, five, which makes it a reversal pattern instead of a consolidation pattern.

Saturday, February 13, 2016

Is Deutsche Bank the Next Lehman Brothers? / Companies / Financial Crisis 2016

By: Submissions

Nathan McDonald writes: Has the crash begun? The similarities between the current market environment and those seen in the 2008 economic crisis are scary to say the least. Investors are panicking and for good reason - signs that another Lehman-style crisis may be on the horizon.

Deutsche Bank is the one in question. This German banking powerhouse has had its liquidity called into question and is now on the fence, being attacked from all sides as article after article is released pointing to the dangers the bank now finds itself in.

Friday, February 12, 2016

Is This the Debt Bubbles Last Rattle? / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis 2016

By: Raul_I_Meijer

What we see happening today is why we called our news overview the “Debt Rattle” 8 years ago. The last gasps of a broken system ravished by the very much cancer-like progress of debt. Yes, it took longer than it should have, and than we thought. But that’s pretty much irrelevant, unless you were trying to get rich off of the downfall of your own world. Always a noble goal.

There’s one reason for the delay only: central bank hubris. And now the entire shebang is falling to bits. That this would proceed in chaotic ways was always a given. People don’t know where to look first or last, neither central bankers nor investors nor anyone else.

Friday, February 12, 2016

Gold Stocks Upside Targets / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2016

By: Zeal_LLC

The gold miners’ stocks are rocketing higher again, multiplying wealth for smart contrarian traders who bought them low in recent months.  But after such a blistering surge, traders are naturally wondering how much farther gold stocks can run.  Is it time to realize gains, or buy aggressively for greater gains to come?  This critical question can be answered by looking at fundamentally-derived gold-stock price targets.

Many analysts shy away from offering price targets, with good reason.  Divining precise future outcomes in volatile markets is all but impossible.  Prevailing stock prices result from the chaotic interplay between sentimental, technical, and fundamental drivers.  And an effectively-infinite array of variables can affect each one, making forecasting stock prices a fool’s errand.  Nevertheless, this exercise is absolutely necessary.

Friday, February 12, 2016

Stock Market Observations / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

I am showing the larger charts because they display the big picture more clearly. It is now clear that Intermediate Waves (1) through (5) of Primary Wave [C] are A-B-C Waves and not impulsive in the strict sense. We would normally expect to see a clean 5-wave decline in Wave C. This is either a rare variation or an outright aberration. Which is it? I don’t know.

This has Elliott Wavers tied in knots, since an A-B-C move is normally corrective and in this case tells the Elliottician that the next move is a rally! In fact, most analysts would say that today’s decline is a Wave B-with- rally-to-follow. What no one else is watching is the natural resistance at the cycle Bottom at 1868.20 which has been stopping the retracement rallies all week long.

Friday, February 12, 2016

Will Capital Controls Return? / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis 2016

By: Dan_Amerman

The average person may have no interest in capital controls, but to rephrase a well-known saying, capital controls are interested in you. The residents of Greece found this out in 2015 when capital controls were imposed, and they could not legally send the money in their bank accounts out of the country.

Like the rest of the world, they had been encouraged to move their data to the Cloud, and their software to subscriptions, each of which required small monthly payments. But if all our data is in the Cloud and we can't pay to access it as a matter of law, because the money would have to leave the country - what can we do next?

Friday, February 12, 2016

Looking For The Next Financial Crisis; Try Student Debt / Stock-Markets / Student Finances

By: Sol_Palha

"Calamities are of two kinds: misfortune to ourselves, and good fortune to others." ~ Ambrose Bierce

Student debt is increasing at the rate of almost $3000.00 per second; this is stunning considering that education tour system does not even rank in the top 10 globally ; we are ranked 18 out of 20. Worse yet, it indicates that colleges are simply forcing young individuals to take on mind-boggling amounts of debt in the hopes of landing a good job when they graduate. Getting a student loan is about as easy it was to get a loan during the booming housing market cycle and look how that story ended.

Friday, February 12, 2016

Gold, Gold Stocks, and the End Game / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: DeviantInvestor

We have seen the bottom in the gold market and gold stocks.

Evidence:

• Examine the 30+ year chart of the monthly XAU (gold stock Index) to Gold ratio. You can see that the downtrend in the ratio has lasted about 20 years – since 1996.  The ratio is now at all-time lows in the form of a contracting triangle.  The triangle has been broken to the upside.

Friday, February 12, 2016

The Coming Silver Price Rally Will Be Fueled By A Crashing Dow / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: Hubert_Moolman

It is good news for silver investors when significant nominal peaks of the Dow are formed. This is because significant nominal peaks in the price of silver tend to come after significant nominal peaks in the Dow. This has been the case for the last 90 years at least.

The two most significant nominal peaks of the Dow were in 1929 and 1973. Silver made a significant peak in 1935, about six years after the Dow's major peak in 1929. Again, in 1980, silver made a significant peak, about seven years after the Dow's major peak in 1973.

Friday, February 12, 2016

Is the Gold Price Manipulated? Part2 / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

One of the main arguments for the systematic suppression of the gold price says that governments and central banks try to stop gold being the canary in the inflationary mine. We have problems with this view.

First, there are many other indicators of inflation, like official indices (CPI, PPI, and PCEPI), inflation premiums embedded in Treasury prices, or oil and other commodity prices. Do central banks also suppress oil, copper and practically all commodities? We do not think so. The current bear market in gold and base metals is more connected with the strong U.S. dollar than with diligent manipulation.