Friday, November 26, 2021
Is the S&P 500 Topping or Just Consolidating? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Paul_Rejczak
The S&P 500 continues to fluctuate along the 4,700 level. So is this a topping pattern or just a flat correction before another leg up?
The S&P 500 index extended its Monday’s decline yesterday, as it fell to the daily low of 4,652.66. But it closed 0.17% higher following an intraday rebound. The market rebounded to the 4,700 level again. The broad stock market keeps trading within an over two-week-long consolidation. For now, it looks like a flat correction within an uptrend. However, it may also be a topping pattern before some more meaningful downward reversal.
Friday, November 26, 2021
Is a Bigger Drop in Gold Price Just Around the Corner? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: P_Radomski_CFA
As expected, after the applauded increase, gold fell. But will it manage to bounce off the bottom or rather slide lower?
Today’s analysis is going to be all about gold, and for a good reason. Based on yesterday’s and Monday’s sessions, November is now a down month for gold. Please let that sink in.
Gold ended last week above $1,850, with almost everyone in the market cheering and making bets, on how soon gold will move above $1,900 and then rally to new yearly highs. It was after the completion of the inverse head-and-shoulders pattern, after all!
Friday, November 26, 2021
Financial Stocks ETF Sector XLF Pullback Sets Up A New $43.60 Upside Target / Companies / Sector Analysis
By: Chris_Vermeulen
The recent downward price rotation in the Financial Sector ETF (XLF) may have frightened some traders. My research, however, suggests this move is setting up a future bullish price target near $43.60 – a more than +11% move. The end of the year Christmas Rally phase of the markets should drive spending and Q4:2021 expectations powerfully into the first quarter of 2022. Unless something big breaks this market trend, traders should continue to expect a “melt-up” bullish price trend through at least early January 2022.
Be sure to sign up for our free market trend analysis and signals now so you don’t miss our next special report!
The Financial Sector continues to deliver strong earnings and revenue data each quarter. The way consumers and assets prices have reacted after the COVID market collapse says quite a bit about the ability of financial firms to generate future profits. Financial firms are actively engaged in financial services, traditional banking, real estate and other investments, and corporate financing. The rising inflation trends and consumer spending activities suggest the US economy is still rallying after the COVID stimulus and recovery.
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Thursday, November 25, 2021
A Couple of Things to Think About Before Buying Shares / Stock-Markets / Investing 2021
By: Submissions
Buying shares is a form of investment that pays off in the long run. You can acquire shares at one price and sell them at a higher price. This is known as capital gains. From a historical standpoint, shares have provided some of the most resilient after-tax investment returns. You gain the money, pay income tax on it, and afterward deposit it into some kind of account, where it can earn interest. Alternatively, shares can provide income in the form of dividends. They’re usually paid out twice a year. Some companies pay dividends on an ad-hoc basis to demonstrate it has amassed sufficient cash reserves to make dividend payments.
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Thursday, November 25, 2021
UK Best Fixed Rate Tariff Deal is to NOT FIX Gas and Electric Energy Tariffs During Winter 2021-22 / Personal_Finance / Household Bills
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Gas and electricity prices have surged to extortionate levels and winter has yet to bite sending the fixed rate deals for ALL energy providers soaring in the stratosphere. In my latest video in my inflation mega-trend series I explain why those with expiring tariffs will be making a huge mistake if they now went ahead and fixed their tariffs as energy providers have been eager to get customers to fix ahead of warnings of price highs when the energy cap is lifted in April 2022. This video could literally save you £1000 in making a costly mistake by fixing at the worst possible time at the worst possible rates!
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Wednesday, November 24, 2021
Stock Market Begins it's Year End Seasonal Santa Rally / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Nadeem_Walayat
If one looks at the general stock market indices such as the Dow, S&P and Nasdaq then the correction is done and dusted, However look under the hood and one sees huge volatility in the tech sector, huge price drops of stocks crashing by over 10% in a single day and for some by as much as 1/3rd (Peloton). So where many tech stocks are concerned a significant correction HAS TRANSPIRED despite the indices largely giving a head and shoulders shrug by continuing to revert to new all time highs.
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Wednesday, November 24, 2021
How Silver Can Conquer $50+ in 2022 / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: MoneyMetals
Two realistic price movement scenarios can see silver finally ascend through the magnetic $50 level in 2022. A case can be made that either – or perhaps both – have a strong likelihood of taking place.
First Scenario:
In December, silver moves up from a strong multiple-year base, with an impulse leg-driven First Quarter, punching through strong resistance and spiking into the low '$40's before retreating to its breakout just above $30.
It builds a broad $15 sideways HSR (horizontal support-resistance) price box between $43 and $28.
Volume strengthens on up days, and lessens on down days, creating a descending technical triangle.
In April, silver breaks out of its four-month coil and drives into new multiple year highs between $44 and $55 per ounce, creating spikes above $50, but without managing three closes (above a given price, in this case the historic $50) David Morgan looks for to validate a bullish (or bearish) impulse leg breakout.
Wednesday, November 24, 2021
Stock Market Betting on Hawkish Fed / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Monica_Kingsley
S&P 500 reversed from fresh ATHs as spiking yields sent tech packing. Value didn‘t soar, but held up considerably better – still, stock bulls are getting on the defensive. Markets have interpreted the Powell nomination as a hawkish choice. I‘ve written the prior Monday:
(…) the Fed is still printing a huge amount of money on a monthly basis, and it remains questionable how far in tapering plans execution they would actually get – I see the risks to the real economy coupled with persistently high inflation as rising since the 2Q 2022 (if not since Mar already, but most pronounced in 2H 2022.
Inflation hasn‘t moved to the Fed‘s sights, and yesterday‘s rection in yields and precious metals is a bit too harsh. While rates are on a rising path as I‘ve written yesterday, precious metals overreacted. True, the bullish argument for the dollar stepped to the fore as yields differential between the U.S. and the rest of the world got more positive, and at the same time, various yield spreads keep compressing. That‘s a reflection of less favorable incoming economic data. Just as much as Friday‘s reaction was about corona economic impact projections, yesterday‘s one was about monetary policy anticipation.
Inflation expectations though barely budged – the decline doesn‘t count as trend reversal. CPI isn‘t done rising, and the more forward looking incoming data (e.g. producer prices) would confirm there is more to come. All in all, it looks like precious metals (and to a smaller degree commodities), are giving Powell benefit of the doubt, which I view to be leading to disappointment over the coming months. Should Powell heed the markets‘ will, the real economy would weaken dramatically, forcing him to make a sharp dovish turn – and he would, faster than he flipped since getting challenged in Dec 2018.
Wednesday, November 24, 2021
Stock Market Elliott Wave Trend Forecast / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Every high is the fifth of the fifth of the fifth! until the market fails to follow through and on we march with the next high then the next high, which is why I take Elliott Wave Theory with a mountain of salt.
My Elliott Wave pattern of Feb 2009 has proven remarkably accurate (as did the pattern before that), see being skeptical works! It's when people think they have found the holy grail when things start to go wrong!
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Wednesday, November 24, 2021
Your once-a-year All-Access Financial Markets Analysis Pass / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021
By: EWI
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But how do you know WHEN is the best time to jump in? Jump out? Stay flat?
Today, millions of new traders think that trading means "buy and hold." They are wrong. Trading means punching in both directions -- and our friends at Elliott Wave International can show you how, right now.
Once every year, EWI offers their full library of high-quality, online, on-demand e-courses at a heavy discount. They call it the All-Access Pass.
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Wednesday, November 24, 2021
Did Zillow’s $300 million flop prove me wrong? / Companies / Tech Stocks
By: Stephen_McBride
Every homeowner loves browsing Zillow (ZG)…Zillow is America’s go-to website to look at homes for sale.
And we’ve all checked out “Zestimate,” which estimates how much your house is worth.
But a few years ago, Zillow jumped into a new business…
The business of buying and selling homes instantly, sight unseen.
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Wednesday, November 24, 2021
Now Malaysian Drivers Renew Their Kurnia Car Insurance Online With Fincrew.my / Personal_Finance / Insurance
By: Sumeet_Manhas
All auto insurance policies are valid only for some time: some guidelines must be renewed after one year, three years, or five years. A car insurance renewal is necessary not just to continue to enjoy the benefits of the policy cover, but it is required by the law to carry a form of insurance policy for your car. There are many auto insurance policy providers in Malaysia, but one of the standouts is Kurnia Insurance. They offer a range of personalized policies such as Kurnia comprehensive motor insurance and Kurnia's Auto365 designed to mirror the diversity of their customers' needs.
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Tuesday, November 23, 2021
Gold / Silver Ratio / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The chart shows that Silver is in a long-term losing battle against Gold, basically Silver is mostly not a precious metal anymore, it really is an industrial metal, well that's what the chart implies for at the time of panic when everything was crashing which commodity did people turn to? It was GOLD! NOT SIlver! So maybe it is time for the Silver bugs to ditch the alternative to fiat currency mantra and realise that it may have been true at one point many, many years ago but not for some time.
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Tuesday, November 23, 2021
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: Can We Get To 5500SPX In 2022? But 4440SPX Comes First / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Sentiment
By: Avi_Gilburt
Before you begin reading this article, I want to warn you that it is quite lengthy and also recaps some of our analysis over the past 20 months. So, if this will offend you or you don't want to hear that, feel free to stop reading right now.
I have been writing for Seeking Alpha now for over a decade. And, during that time, I certainly have had my share of critics. I have been told that I do not understand the markets I track. I have been called names like "insane," "dimwit," "charlatan," and "snake oil salesman." And, I have been told that my "squiggly line" analysis cannot foretell anything, is "absurd," "chart magic," and "highly unmeaningful."
And, these are just some of the comments I received over the last 20 months alone, as you can see for yourself:
Are You As Foolish As Most Market Participants?
So, it has certainly been an interesting past 20 months, in addition to the last decade.
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Tuesday, November 23, 2021
A Month-to-month breakdown of how Much Money Individuals are Spending on Stocks / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Sentiment
By: EWI
It's been noted before in these pages that ...
... Investors have put more money into stocks in the last 5 months than the previous 12 years combined
That was an April CNBC headline.
That remains an astounding fact to contemplate and a testimony to a widespread cavalier sentiment toward risk. The basic attitude is that stocks almost always go up.
Well, nearly a half year since that CNBC headline published, the public's interest in stocks has remained intense.
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Tuesday, November 23, 2021
S&P 500: Rallying Tech Stocks vs. Plummeting Oil Stocks / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Paul_Rejczak
The S&P 500 index nearly topped its record high on Friday, but it closed lower following an intraday decline. Is this a topping pattern?
For in-depth technical analysis of various stocks and a recap of today's Stock Trading Alert we encourage you to watch today's video.
The S&P 500 index lost 0.14% on Friday, Nov. 19, as it extended its short-term consolidation along the 4,700 level. The broad stock market went sideways despite record-breaking rallies in large tech stocks like AAPL, MSFT and NVDA. It still looks like a short-term topping pattern, as the S&P 500 index keeps bouncing from the Nov. 5 record high of 4,718.50.
Tuesday, November 23, 2021
Like the Latest Bond Flick, the US Dollar Has No Time to Die / Currencies / US Dollar
By: P_Radomski_CFA
While the dollar is on a tear, precious metal stocks have gotten away with it lately. But how long will their resistance last?
The USD Index (USDX)
After the USD Index’s negative response to the ECB’s monetary policy meeting on Oct. 28, I warned on Oct. 29 that dollar bears were unlikely to celebrate for much longer. I wrote:
Based on the rather random comment during the conference, the traders panicked and bought the EUR/USD, which triggered declines in the USD Index (after all, the EUR/USD is the largest component of the USDX).
Was the breakout to new 2021 lows invalidated? No. The true breakout was above the late-March highs (the August highs also served as a support level, but the March high is more important here) and it wasn’t invalidated.
What was the follow-up action? At the moment of writing these words, the USDX is up and trading at about 93.52, which is just 0.07 below the August high in terms of the closing prices. Consequently, it could easily be the case that the USD Index ends today’s session (and the week) back above this level.
Monday, November 22, 2021
Why BITCOIN NEW ALL TIME HIGH Changes EVERYTHING! / Currencies / Bitcoin
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Crypto Portfolio Current State
So far the crypto markets have managed to dodge the black swan bullets and so I hold ZERO of the two largest market cap crypto's, Bitcoin and Ethereum. Instead what had fallen to deep discounts have been the Alt coins, though again not to the extent where I would have piled in head first hoovering up huge amounts of crypto's as the current state of my crypto portfolio illustrates where even the crypto I have been banging on about all year Ravencoin is just scratching the surface at about 12% of my target holding, the table lists crypto's in order of my target $ position size.
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Monday, November 22, 2021
Cannabis ETF MJ Basing & Volatility Patterns / Commodities / Cannabis
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Recently, the Cannabis sector has shown signs of increased volume, volatility, and a reasonably strong potential for a price base. Volume started increasing near mid-September as the price of MJ fell below $15. This support level originated from late December 2020 after a significant rally trend from recent lows near $10 – when the Reddit retail trader event started to unfold.
I wrote about this sector and these opportunities in many articles before the incredible rally in late 2020 into 2021.
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Monday, November 22, 2021
The Most Important Lesson Learned from this COVID Pandemic / Politics / Coronavirus 2021
By: Frank_Hollenbeck
We must reduce government power to a bare minimum, or the next threat to our security will lead to an even greater loss of individual freedoms.
In life, we are constantly making trade-offs between life, liberty, and property. When we take our car out for a ride, we trade life for liberty: walking is safer than driving. When we take our car to work, we trade life for liberty and property. The minute we get out of bed, we make these trade-offs, and we do it so often that most times we don’t even realize we are making them: Indeed, our entire lives are a series of continuous trade-offs. However, for this pandemic, politicians decided they knew the best trade-off for everyone, and like sheep we should blindly accept these government edicts. They even tried to "infantilize" their populations (e.g. most COVID propaganda used child-like cartoons) to quash any dissent.
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