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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Category: AI

The analysis published under this category are as follows.

Companies

Sunday, April 03, 2022

NVIDIA is ARMless - To Buy or Not to Buy, that is the Question / Companies / AI

By: Nadeem_Walayat

As suspected failure for the ARM deal to go through is about to become manifest and was expected to trigger a sell off buying opportunity, Though Nvidia IS firing on all cylinders, it's just that as has been the case for the whole of 2021, NVIDIA IS OVER VALUED! My exposure stands at 9.6% of target (0.5% of portfolio) which is actually down on last week as I took profits given that I do expect Nvidia to be one of the stocks to take a tumble to fresh lows. It is hard to believe that the stock can trade below it's recent low of $209, after all that WAS my target draw down for the stock! So it may yet turn out to be THE LOW, after all the bounce back from $209 was quite powerful, i.e. lots of buy the dippers stepping in. Nvidia is a tough stock to buy, because it is a FANTASTIC CORPORATION that trades at a too high a valuation. Which means no matter what price I pay for Nvidia in hindsight it will probably prove to VERY HIGH! It's one of those things where you know how good a corporation is and one is desperate to expand ones exposure to but you also know its DAMN expensive, especially when we look at where Facebook is trading right now i.e. on a valuations that's less than 1/4 that of Nvidia! Is Nvidia worth 4 TIMES as much as Facebook? Seriously? And this is why despite Nvidia's price plunge to date I see a lot more potential downside for this stock. Maybe I should just do the same as for Apple? I.e. buy to just 1% of portfolio and then hold fire for much, much lower prices IF they materialise great, if not then at some point I would have to bite the bullet and buy Nvidia for something like $265 a share!

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Companies

Wednesday, February 02, 2022

AI Tech Stocks Portfolio Buying Levels and Limit Orders for Buying the Panic! / Companies / AI

By: Nadeem_Walayat

A reminder that my plan is to capitalise on a valuation reset in the over valued tech giants as they are one by one marked lower by at least 20% from their bull highs as we recently enjoyed with Facebook down to $300, with Nvidia and AMD already along their path towards triggering buying opportunities and the likes of Microsoft and Apple to soon follow suit.

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Companies

Monday, January 17, 2022

Exponential AI Stocks Mega-trend / Companies / AI

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Firstly never forget that the AI Mega-trend is NOT LINEAR BUT EXPONENTIAL where the pandemic has only acted to to accelerate the mega-trend a notch higher. For instance GPT3 (which Microsoft owns) implies autonomous humanoid robots that people can have actual conversations with are just around the corner, we will probably see mass business if not retail consumer devices (robots) within the next FOUR YEARS!

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Companies

Sunday, January 09, 2022

IBM The REAL Quantum Metaverse STOCK! / Companies / AI

By: Nadeem_Walayat

IBM is another sleeping tech giant that the so called the analysts are clueless about.

What comes to mind when you think of IBM ?

It's stock price chart ?

Logo?

What comes to my mind is a quantum computer and then the 2001 Space Oddessy movie Monolith. If you have not watched the movie then watch it even though it is over 50 years old.

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Companies

Tuesday, January 04, 2022

Quantum AI Tech Stocks Portfolio Current State / Companies / AI

By: Nadeem_Walayat

In terms of the AI stocks portfolio this means I am scrapping small nearby limit orders I had for Apple,. Microsoft, AVGO, and LMT, and replacing with more distant limit order, for instance I would be buying significant exposure to LMT at around $300 rather than at my just scrapped limit order of $326. Similarly I amended my LIMIT order to buy more INTEL from $47 to $44 and and IBM from $115 to $108. Though I would not be surprised if both Intel and IBM ROSE whilst the rest of the market fell, hence why I am content to already be mostly fully invested in Intel and IBM.

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Companies

Monday, January 03, 2022

AI Tech Stocks Portfolio Updated Buying Levels and Zones Part 2 of 2 / Companies / AI

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Dear Reader

Happy Near Year!

This is the concluding part two of my extensive analysis on the state of the AI tech stocks highlighting several stocks trading at bargain basement levels despite the FOMO rally in the face of the countdown to Financial Crisis 2.0 during 2022.

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Companies

Wednesday, December 22, 2021

TSMC and Microsoft AI Tech Stocks Analysis / Companies / AI

By: Nadeem_Walayat

TSMC $117

PE 29.9, has been stuck in a tight trading range for virtually the whole of 2021 at between $125 and $108. Therefore I am raising the buying level to an achievable $109.5.

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Companies

Tuesday, December 21, 2021

AI Tech Stocks Portfolio Updated Buying Levels and Zones as Financial Crisis 2.0 Continues Brewing / Companies / AI

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Dear Reader

China's property market is collapsing but the only data we have at present is anecdotal from the property developer canaries in the coal mine which have been under extreme distress for several months, with now dozens defaulting on their debts triggering fire sales of housing stock to raise revenues as they desperately fight to stay alive in the face of impending debt and interest payments, playing their part in the brewing Financial Crisis 2.0.

Financial Crisis 2.0 Checklist

  • China housing market in distress - CHECK
  • China's economy slowing - CHECK
  • US Economy slowing - CHECK
  • Brewing STAGFLATION - Slowing economy coupled with rising prices - CHECK
  • Black Swan Event - Crisis at the ports - CHECK
  • Economic Models busted - Workers refusing to return to work not factored into Economic models - CHECK
  • REVERSE REPO MARKET - Banks desperate to swap deposit liabilities for T-bills collateral so as to lower capital requirements which has drained the capital markets of over $1 trillion - CHECK
  • STOCK MARKET BUBBLE - Valuations have lost touch with reality - CHECK
  • FED TAPERING into a Weakening Economy - Huge Risk of a valuation reset - CHECK
  • IMPEMDING DOOM! - The relentless march of the Climate Change Mega-trend where all that the worlds leaders did at COP26 was Blah Blah Blah - CHECK!

So yes, Financial Crisis 2.0 continues to brew in the background and will likely come knocking on many investor portfolio door's during 2022 so don't be so eager to FOMO into stocks today to later wish one had missed out on the preceding 6-8 months of price action by Mid 2022. Where whatever one buys and holds today needs to factor in a potential for lower lows than what we saw in October and for some a lot lower lows than that! If one is happy with that then continue to FOMO all the way to new all time highs, for the time being.

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Companies

Thursday, November 04, 2021

Artificial Intelligence Could Solve This $11 Trillion Problem / Companies / AI

By: Submissions

The $11-trillion healthcare industry is going fully digital, disrupting industry giants & government monopolies, and finally giving the power back to the people.

That means no more googling of symptoms for a panic-driven self-diagnosis… where a spot on the skin can turn into a rare fatal disease, or an upset stomach into Stage IV cancer.

The digital revolution in healthcare is about far more than simply scheduling an appointment with a clinic through an app …

It’s about empowering the individual to take control of their health.

It won’t be Google that leads this revolution. And it most certainly won’t be Cortana or Alexa.

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Companies

Thursday, October 28, 2021

AI Tech Stocks Portfolio Current State / Companies / AI

By: Nadeem_Walayat

AI Stocks Buying Pressure Evaluation

Its now over 6 weeks since I first posted the AI generated forecasts where I deemed the resulting Buying Pressure as being the most important derived indicator for what the stocks are likely to do. For instance Facebook and AMD were expected to be the strongest, and not far behind Microsoft, Apple, Google, where Nvidia strength was contrary to my expectations for this over valued stock. Basically the AI was saying that I had a mistake mistake by selling out of Microsoft, Apple and Nvidia etc. The only decision it was concurring with was that Amazon was expected to be weak with only 17% upwards buying pressure, as was Samsung at 34%. and IBM on 26%. Whilst an unloved Intel continued to carry huge unrealised potential hence my seeking to accumulate more on any dips below $50.

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, September 15, 2021

Dow Stock Market Trend Forecasting Neural Nets Pattern Recognition / Stock-Markets / AI

By: Nadeem_Walayat

So far all attempts to predict the Dow via machine learning have failed, as mentioned above feeding nets with obvious data such as open, close, high, low and then a candle chart version does not work. In fact the neural net part is the easy part via the likes of Tensor Flow. The problem is with the data which as I explained earlier needs to be preprocessed i.e. feeding raw data into the networks as inputs ends up with noisy networks, if it did work then it would be easy to successfully train neural nets and they would be widespread instead as far as I am aware there aren't really any neural nets out there that can successfully trade stocks.

So what does preprocessing actually mean?

There are 2 ways to go about preprocessing data for stock market forecasts.

1. Pattern recognition

2. Trend Analysis preprocessing.

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Companies

Saturday, August 28, 2021

AI Predicts AI Tech Stock Price Valuations into 2024 / Companies / AI

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Dear Reader

This analysis is focused on my continuing journey to gradually off load my stock analysis processing power onto neural nets where this net attempts to forecast the value of AI stocks 3 years out based on my EC indicator resulting in a upwards pressure under the stock price indicator.

This article is an excerpt form my recent in-depth analysis : AI Predicts AI Tech Stock Price Valuations into 2024, Time to Buy Chinese Tech Stocks?

Contents:

  • AI Stocks Value Forecaster (ASVF).
  • How I Use ASVF6 - Percent Upwards Pressure (PUP)
  • AI Stocks Buying Levels Plus ASVF & PUP 
  • AI Stocks Portfolio Buying Levels
  • Dow Stock Market Trend Forecasting Neural Nets
  • Pattern Recognition 
  • Trend Analysis Preprocessing
  • Crossing the Rubicon With These Three High Risk Tech Stocks
  • Cheap Chinese Tech Stock 1
  • Cheap Chinese Tech Stock 2
  • Cheap Chinese Tech Stock 3
  • CME Black Swan
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Companies

Friday, August 27, 2021

AI Neural Net Predicts Facebook, AMD, and Nvidia Stock Prices Three Years Ahead / Companies / AI

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Here my neural net stock price forecaster predicts where Amazon, Microsoft and Apple stock prices will be trading in 3 years time. For an expiation of the forecaster see AI Stocks Value Forecaster (ASVF) as excerpted form my recent extensive analysis -

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Companies

Tuesday, August 24, 2021

AI Neural Net Predicts Amazon, Microsoft and Apple Stock Prices Three Years Ahead / Companies / AI

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Here my neural net stock price forecaster predicts where Amazon, Microsoft and Apple stock prices will be trading in 3 years time. For an expiation of the forecaster see AI Stocks Value Forecaster (ASVF) as excerpted form my recent extensive analysis -

AI Predicts AI Tech Stock Price Valuations into 2024, Time to Buy Chinese Tech Stocks?

Contents:

  • AI Stocks Value Forecaster (ASVF).
  • How I Use ASVF6 - Percent Upwards Pressure (PUP)
  • AI Stocks Buying Levels Plus ASVF & PUP 
  • AI Stocks Portfolio Buying Levels
  • Dow Stock Market Trend Forecasting Neural Nets
  • Pattern Recognition 
  • Trend Analysis Preprocessing
  • Crossing the Rubicon With These Three High Risk Tech Stocks
  • Cheap Chinese Tech Stock 1
  • Cheap Chinese Tech Stock 2
  • Cheap Chinese Tech Stock 3
  • CME Black Swan
Read full article... Read full article...

 


Stock-Markets

Friday, June 18, 2021

AI Stock Buying Levels, Ratings, Valuations Video / Stock-Markets / AI

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Here is my updated AI stocks table with buying levels to capitalise upon during the anticipated stock market correction. In terms of overall valuations the portfolio is a little more expensive today than at my last update with some individual stocks very overbought so should be primed for a correction during May as I first flagged to expect in my analysis of 9th of Feb.

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, June 17, 2021

AI Stock Buying Levels, Ratings, Valuations and Trend Analysis into Market Correction / Stock-Markets / AI

By: Nadeem_Walayat

This is part 3 of my recent extensive analysis focused on updated buying levels for my AI tech stocks portfolio going into the summer stock market correction, of what I will be looking to accumulate at what price levels.

Part 1 covered Tesla, ARK Funds and more - TESLA! Cathy Wood ARK Funds Bubble BURSTS!

Part 2 covered The Top 5 AI stocks trend analysis - Top 5 AI Tech Stocks Trend Analysis, Buying Levels, Ratings and Valuations

Whilst the whole of this extensive analysis AI Stock Buying Levels, Ratings, Valuations and Trend Analysis into Market Correction was first been made available to Patrons who support my work.

Contents:

  • TESLA
  • Cathy Wood ARK Funds CRASH!
  • India Apocalypse Heralds Catastrophe for Pakistan and Bangladesh
  • Covid-19 in Italy in August 2019!
  • Stock Market Early Summer Correction Trend Forecast
  • Stocks Expensive or Cheap Indicator (EC)
  • AI Stock Buy % Rating Review
  • 1. GOOGLE - $2398
  • 2. AMAZON - $3312
  • 3. MICROSOFT - $252.5
  • 4. APPLE - $130
  • 5. FACEBOOK - $320
  • 6. NVIDIA - $592.5
  • 7. AMD - $78.8
  • 11. IBM - $145.5
  • 12. INTEL - $57.7
  • AI Stocks Buying Levels Update May 2021
  • So what am I going to do
  • GPU Mining FREE MONEY!
  • CHIA Crypto Farming with Your Hard Drives Insanity!
Read full article... Read full article...

 


Companies

Monday, June 14, 2021

AI Stocks Strength vs Weakness - Why Selling Google or Facebook is a Big Mistake! / Companies / AI

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Stock market corrections are useful in gauging what is going on under the hood of corporations long before any information makes it into the public arena. For instance looking at the relative strength of the top 5 AI stocks shows Google and Facebook showing relative strength, whilst Apple and Amazon are showing relative weakness with Microsoft in the middle. What this is saying is that one should definitely NOT make the mistake of Selling Google or Facebook! Whilst as expected in my last AI stocks update Apple and Amazon are looking tired and so are unlikely to start galloping higher any time soon and thus set to under perform for some time. whilst Microsoft is doing its own thing somewhere in the middle.

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Companies

Thursday, June 10, 2021

Top 5 AI Tech Stocks Trend Analysis, Buying Levels, Ratings and Valuations / Companies / AI

By: Nadeem_Walayat

This is part 2 of my recent extensive analysis focused on updated buying levels for my AI tech stocks portfolio going into the summer stock market correction, of what I will be looking to accumulate at what levels. Part 1 covered Tesla, ARk Funds and more - TESLA! Cathy Wood ARK Funds Bubble BURSTS!

Whilst the whole of this extensive analysis AI Stock Buying Levels, Ratings, Valuations and Trend Analysis into Market Correction was first been made available to Patrons who support my work.

Contents:

  • TESLA
  • Cathy Wood ARK Funds CRASH!
  • India Apocalypse Heralds Catastrophe for Pakistan and Bangladesh
  • Covid-19 in Italy in August 2019!
  • Stock Market Early Summer Correction Trend Forecast
  • Stocks Expensive or Cheap Indicator (EC)
  • AI Stock Buy % Rating Review
  • 1. GOOGLE - $2398
  • 2. AMAZON - $3312
  • 3. MICROSOFT - $252.5
  • 4. APPLE - $130
  • 5. FACEBOOK - $320
  • 6. NVIDIA - $592.5
  • 7. AMD - $78.8
  • 11. IBM - $145.5
  • 12. INTEL - $57.7
  • AI Stocks Buying Levels Update May 2021
  • So what am I going to do
  • GPU Mining FREE MONEY!
  • CHIA Crypto Farming with Your Hard Drives Insanity!
Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Thursday, May 27, 2021

The Shifting US Economy: AI and Automation Lead the Way / Economics / AI

By: Submissions

The Biden administration is 125 days old, and things certainly feel different. What strategies are you employing to take advantage of the shift?

Things often change temporarily before reverting to a mean. Just like market instruments, changing political ideals can, do, and will change, before ultimately reverting back to a mean, or an average state.

Labor force configurations have changed drastically, partially due to the pandemic. What was once everyone’s dream “to work from home”, went from a wish to a potentially harsh reality and has stayed there for many people.

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Companies

Wednesday, April 14, 2021

AI Tech Stocks Buy Ratings, Levels and Valuations / Companies / AI

By: Nadeem_Walayat

This is the final part of my most recent investing in AI tech stocks series focused on the remaining AI stocks on my list following the Top 5 in my last article. However the whole of this extensive analysis was first made available to Patrons who support my work:

AI Tech Stocks Buying Ratings, Levels and Valuations March 2021

  • AI Tech Stocks Buying Levels and Valuations 2021 Explained
  • Coronavirus Pandemic Vaccines Indicator Current State
  • Post Pandemic Summer 2021 Social Unrest ?
  • Get Ready for Inflation Mega-trend to Surge 2021
  • The AI Megatrend Big Picture
  • Human Brain vs High End Desktop PC in 2021
  • AI Stocks Investing 2021 - Top 14 Stocks Analysis
  • AI Stocks Portfolio Table 2021
  • Stocks Bear Market / Crash Indicator (CI18)

So for immediate first access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $3 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.

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