The Stock Market Bear / Crash indicator Window
Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2025 Mar 09, 2025 - 10:21 PM GMTBy: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
It's your lucky day here are my 3 most recent market briefs sent Patrons -
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Stock Market Brief - The CI18 Correction Window
Sunday 9th of March 4pm UK Time
Greetings Patron
Agent Orange continues to wreck havoc with the US economy, financial markets and the US Empire as he fumbles for the light switch in the White house, does he even remember what he signed the day before? Tariffs on, Tariffs off all for being centre stage in Season 2 of the Trump Show that will likely eventually embolden Emperor Xi to make a move on Taiwan given how Agent Orange has been caving in to President Putrid in Ukraine
The S&P 5770 put in the mark of the beast swing low Friday at 5666, the 66th day of the year in the 6th year of the decade everyone's asking if the bottom is in. Unfortunately at 5850 CI18 implied that the 5% correction looked set to at least 2X to a 10% correction, so 6150 *0.9 = 5535, hence my target of 5600 to 5500 which should be achieved by Mid March and THEN usher in a rip your face off rally to 6450 by Mid April as a way point to higher prices beyond as per trend forecast for 2025.. And yes Bitcoin should also pump into Mid April. So I am positioned to buy further dips in target stocks.
Also CI18 data has been added to the spreadsheet.
(Patrons only)
S&P Probabilities.
(Patrons only)
GBP $1.29 - (Patrons only)
As the correction continues here are the top 4 Cheapest AI Primaries in terms of the metrics.
1. Google
2. QCOM
3. AMD
4. MSFT
Secondaries
1. ASML
2. AMAZON
3. AMAT
So there are plenty of opps out there during the current correction.
Bottom line we are in a bull market and thus the strategy is to buy the dip in target stocks, but what if I am wrong and the bear market has now started earlier than expected? In which case it will be better to be wrong once then every other month as is the case for the perma bear crowd.
Crypto's are a gamble that the tops are not already in and that we are already in a crypto bear market. Remember this year we had 3 windows for a pump Top
(Patrons only)
The risk is that the party ended on Inauguration day .Anyway I've been stating for a good 5 months now that as one sells the rips to withdraw from accounts so as not to plow profits back into crypto's so those who followed will have cashed out at a profit.
AGENT ORANGE
Even the anti-woke, goostepping fuhrer Musk's in DeepHitler mode LLM GROK estimates that there is a 85% probability that Trump is a Russian asset.
Don't believe ? Type this into Grok
"What is the probability based on all known information that Trump is a Russian asset"
Reply
"Based on all public data from 1980 to now, I estimate a 75-85% likelihood that Trump is a Russian asset, leaning toward 85% due to the cumulative weight of evidence. The remaining 15-25% reflects uncertainty and plausible non-compromise explanations. This isn’t proof beyond doubt—it’s a reasoned judgment based on patterns too consistent to dismiss lightly."
Same question about Biden
"Based on all known info as of March 9, 2025, I’d peg it at a low single-digit range—say, 1-3%—to account for uncertainty and the slim chance of hidden influence. "
You've got a KGB agent in the White house!
Meanwhile Tesla continues to die as it targets sub $200 with even more bad news for Fuhrer Musk as another US tax payer funded Starship explodes over the Gulf of SpaceX.
Your buying the dips analyst
Nadeem Walayat
For immediate first access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $7 per month, lock it in now at $7 before it rises to $10 per month for new sign-up's. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.
Stocks Bear / Crash CI18 Indicator
Tuesday 4th March 12pm UK Time
Greetings Patrons
CI18 Stock Market bear / Crash Indicator = 128% - Switch is ON! Warns of significant downtrend i.e. S&P at 5850 is down 4.8% off its high, could easily drop more than 10% i.e. to below 5600.
The risk is that Trump has crashed the US Economy. Biden handed OAP a goldilocks economy, growing at 3% per annum. 1 month into Extreme Chaos and US GDP estimate for Q1 is -3%! (GDP NOW) Q2 -x%? - What do we get? A RECESSION! NOW! not in 2026, but US could be in the recession RIGHT NOW!
The system is fragile, you let morons play with it and they will break it!
But wait there is a silver lining which is - RATE CUTS! If annualised GDP is -3% then the FED CUTS RATES HARD.
If there is even a whiff of a recession right now then stocks are going to FALL HARD. I'm getting that shovel ready to load up the back of the truck, depending on what drops and to what extent.
What's Trump done?
He's messed up the timeline..... There is no trend, only chaos!
Buying levels for AI Stocks have been updated, I'll look into updating others.
(Patrons only)
Alls I can do is buy the dip, but uncertainty is going to be extreme!
Your analyst, busy revising buy limit orders lower and trimmed some more IBM.
Nadeem Walayat
For immediate first access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $7 per month, lock it in now at $7 before it rises to $10 per month for new sign-up's. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.
Market Brief - Trump the Negative Stock Market Sentiment Machine
3rd March - 6am UK Time
Trump induces volatility and negative market sentiment, so the more he talks the more volatile and negative is the outlook for stocks, thus implies to expect weaker stocks, weaker economy, higher inflation due to tariffs and higher bond prices, these are the directions of travel, markets do not like uncertainty which is what Trump is delivering in bucket loads, the market is going to start discounting a recession, all these DOGE job cuts are dampening economic activity as companies cut back on expectations of less demand in the economy. The fool wants to put tariffs on everyone, push Europe, Canada and Mexico into recession without considering that this also puts the US into recession, whilst we are here busy investing in Artificial Intelligence the White house is going in the opposite direction i.e. lack of intelligence.
S&P 5955, strong rebound Friday as we move from Feb expected Down month to March expected up month as per trend forecast pattern for stocks and crypto to pump into at least Mid April with Bitcorn targeting +$120k and S&P 6450.
Tariff Tuesday incoming which given trend expectations should turn out to be a bluff.
Can we still get to S&P 7200 this year?
it depends on how much more chaos and uncertainty Trump creates because right now it is too much for the bull market to cope with to make it to 7200. I suspect Trump is being allowed 100 days to run his mouth before he becomes a lame duck President so things should eventually calm down to some degree so as to allow stocks to trend higher.
Also the S&P is trading at 5955, a year ago it was 5100, 2 years ago it was 3900, so buying at 5950 is a bit late in the game. Meaning ones exposure to most stocks should be reducing in what could be the final leg of this bull market i.e. each time Trump opens his mouth he shortens the life span of this bull market and thus brings the bear market closer. In a best case scenario we get similar to 2022, worst case like 2008-2009. So something like 1-3 years for my portfolio anyway, maybe the nothing burger S&P will get stuck but the AI stocks should rebound.
Buying Opps?
We'll there was Thursday and Friday, I added FLSR, Nvidia, TSLA, COIN, TSM, MSFT, AMD, ADSK and Trimmed - MPW, IBM, JNJ
Most folk commented about Nvidia and AMD, a few sold out of AMD! AMD is now 44% of it's PE range, in late March 2024 it was 170%. the time to sell was when it was above say 140% of it's range not now below 50%. Of course with the stock market you can't know for sure but the metrics are usually reliable indicators.
Where stocks are concerned things rarely go as expected, i.e. stocks go a LOT higher than one thought they could and then the drop a lot lower than they imagine they could, AMD expected $180 went to $230, on the downside I am sure I wrote back in the $170's that it could fall to as low as $110, though most probable is between $130 and $120.
Nvidia EGFS +20%, +59%, Dir -6%, PE ranges 56% and -1%.
I did a chart in a previous article shows that Nvidia gets cheaper the higher the stock price goes. Yes tariffs imply some sort of impact but it has to show in the metrics until it does then for Nvidia they are a nothing burger.
Bitcoin pumped, at $86k I commented - BTC $86k, echoing what it did during 2021 when it plunged off a new all time high, then spent 6 months climbing to a marginally higher all time high. So we should yet see BTC trade to a new all time high, north of $110k, will have to get above $100k to see how much above $110k BTC could go, but as per recent analysis we have 2 windows for a BTC Top, Mid April (most probable) and October.
Now BTC is trading at $93k, with alt coins such as ADA up 50% triggering take profits. This is all part and parcel of Trumps strategy to milk the Presidency for personal gain with the crypto reserve, get the US to pump turd coins Trump Inc holds. And a SWF to pump turd stocks.
Do check out the comments, though yes it is full of Trump chaos.
Your analyst still waiting for Trump to shut his mouth so stocks can pump to new bull market highs.
Nadeem Walayat
Most recent analysis -
Stocks, Crypto and Housing Market Waiting for Trump to Shut His Mouth!
Contents
State of the Stocks Bull Market
It's the 1990's All Over Again!
Stock Market Deviation Against Trend Forecast
When Will US Interest Rates Next Be Cut?
Nvidia DeepSeek FEAR and PANIC
Nvidia Earnings Blast Off?
AI Megatrend
Tesla is Toast!
AI Stocks Portfolio
Bear Market Strategy
FEAR RISING PRICES
UK House Prices
US Home Builders
US House Prices Momentum
US House Prices
Bitcoin Trend Forecast
Pensions Lump Sum Take it Or Leave it?
For immediate first access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $7 per month, lock it in now at $7 before it rises to $10 per month for new sign-up's. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.
Recent Analysis -
President Chaos Delivering Tariffs Buying Opps - Earnings GOOG, AMD, QCOM, RBLX, AMZN
Trump's Squid Game America, a Year of Black Swans and Bull Market Pumps
Earnings Black Swans - MSFT, TSLA, META, AAPL, KLAC, IBM, INTC
Trump's Squid Game America, a Year of Black Swans and Bull Market Pumps
CONTENTS
The External Revenue (Inflation) Service
The Next Wave of the Inflation CRISIS
UK Inflation Crisis
CPLIE - BTFD!
How to Hack the Inflation Wage Slave System
GOLD Price Trend
Silver Price Trend
Sterling Cyclical Bull Market
US Dollar Topping
Japan Rate Hike - Black Swan Panic Event Incoming?
Why Recession Fears Are a Nothing Burger
Stock Market Post Election Year Five Nights at Freddy's
Stock Market Deviation Against the Trend Forecast
Stock Market Forecasts Redux
Nvidia DIGITS Mini PC
Your Only Defence in the Age of AI is Your Stocks Portfolio!
Tesla Stock Slide
Tesla - Secondary
AI Stocks Portfolio
TSM Signals AI Trend is Strong!
SMT.L Garbage Recovers
Bitcoin Target
China Has Lost the War Even Before the First Shot is Fired
First 100 Days of the Trump Reich
California's Burning Climate Change Consequences
UK ISA Platforms
What Brit's Need to to do Get £11.5k per annum for FREE!
Squid Game Stock Market 2025, S&P Detailed Trend Forecast
Stocks, Bitcoin and Crypto Markets Get High on Donald Trump Pump
Stocks Santa Rally, Bitcoin Final Pump and AI Stocks Buying Gifts
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Your buying the black swan panic events analyst.
By Nadeem Walayat
Copyright © 2005-2025 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.
Nadeem Walayat has over 35 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.
Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk
Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.
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