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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Economics

Tuesday, June 29, 2021

Demand-Driven Price Hikes Are Underway / Economics / Inflation

By: John_Mauldin

James Bianco, president of Bianco Research, thinks most of the near-term inflation he foresees will be demand-driven. The fact that a lot of people have a lot of spending money will push prices even higher.

At Mauldin Economics' 2021 Strategic Investment Conference, he posed the question: Where did this cash come from? Check out this chart...
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Commodities

Tuesday, June 29, 2021

Is There a Next Housing Bubble That Will Make Gold Shine? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Home prices are surging, making some investors worry about the housing market. These fears seem to be exaggerated, but bubble-like conditions are widespread.

House prices are surging. As the chart below shows, the S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index has reached 239 in February 2021, the highest number in history and about 30% higher than during the 2006 peak.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, June 29, 2021

Jumping the Fed Tightening Ship / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021

By: Monica_Kingsley

S&P 500 powered higher after the daily pause, yet its solid gains don‘t have such a risk-on feel as the credit markets do. Depending on tech heavyweights for the lion‘s share of gains isn‘t though an immediate concern – the market breadth is slowly improving after value stocks were bombed out post-FOMC. Signs of life are returning, facilitated by the Fed‘s $8.1T and growing reasons to celebrate, so don‘t be spooked too many lower knots in VIX when there is no panic in the options arena either.

As tech-reliant as the S&P 500 is, the path of least resistance is still higher – and in the same way (tight trailing stop-loss) Nasdaq could be approached too, so as to protect our open profits while letting them grow.

PCE deflator readings often come below CPI thanks to the „weighted substitution effect“ at play, and it would come back to haunt the Fed. Taken to extremes, you downgrade from a steak to a hamburger, and then what? Cat or dog food? Obviously, this measure is favorable to the Fed as it defers the taper speculation further to the future.

Together with the redefinition of how long transitory used to last earlier, and what transitory (inflation) means now, the central bank wins in leaving the punch bowl available for longer (the job market offerrs plenty of excuses too). If last week gave us any lesson, it was that market players are all too quick to sell both the winners and losers. The spike in Treasuries was a clear warning sign of stress.

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Commodities

Tuesday, June 29, 2021

Gold Miners require a unique macro-economic backdrop / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: Gary_Tanashian

When gold stock bulls complain about a “smack down”, a “hit” or a “smash” against the poor gold stock sector what they should be thinking about is what a relatively small market the gold stock universe is compared to the multitude of galaxies populated by cyclical and risk on stocks and commodities and the massive bond market. The gold stock sector’s noise to trading volume ratio must be far and away the biggest bull market on the planet (I know because I am part of it :-)).

And once in a while the sector actually warrants all that noise. Like in 2001 when markets were beginning a bear phase and economies were faltering. Like in Q4, 2008 when gold stocks were crashing to unwind previous inflationary excesses, leading stocks and commodities into a terrible crash and rebounding first. Like in March of 2020 when the miners crashed and ‘V’ bottomed to lead what is to this day an ongoing economic recovery born of the inflation that gold and gold stocks first sniffed out.

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Companies

Monday, June 28, 2021

Apple between US China Wars / Companies / Apple

By: Dan_Steinbock

America's most valuable $2 trillion company is no longer immune to US geopolitics. Apple's global success is an anomaly to the protectionist Trump-Biden administrations - for all the wrong reasons.

Recently, Apple announced a set of additional privacy protections. The “private relay” feature will not be available to users in China. After the announcement, New York Times reported that Apple had given in to Beijing.

In fact, in addition to China, the privacy feature will not be available to users in many countries, including Belarus, Colombia, Egypt, Kazakhstan, the Philippines, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Turkmenistan, and Uganda.

Yet, Times only targeted China.
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Currencies

Monday, June 28, 2021

Four Best Cryptocurrencies to Start Spot Trading / Currencies / cryptocurrency

By: Umer_Mahmood

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Stock-Markets

Monday, June 28, 2021

Stock Market Final try at SPX 4310? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Andre_Gratian

Current Position of the Market

SPX Long-term trend:  There is some evidence that we are still in the bull market which started in 2009 and which could continue into 2021 before major cycles take over and it ends.  A move up to ~4500 is possible before the current bull market makes a final top and SPX corrects into its next major cycle low due in 2023.

SPX Intermediate trend:  SPX Fell short of its base projection of 4310 but may be trying to reach it again. 

Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. They are important adjuncts to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which determine longer market trends.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, June 28, 2021

Trustpac Review / Stock-Markets / Learn to Trade

By: S_N_Chatterjee

About Trustpac
Trustpac is an online trading platform covering over 2,000 tradable assets, including a wide range of cryptocurrencies. A place designed so traders will be able to invest with confidence, this is one of the few brands that are offering access to all their trading features for all customers, requiring only a $250 initial deposit to get started.

Regardless of trading strategy or style, this platform can fit the needs of a diversified audience. Customers will be able to use over 70 technical indicators, thousands of charts, client sentiment indicators, price alerts, and even the Social Trading feature. Let’s see what other benefits you can get when opening an account with Trustpac.

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Currencies

Sunday, June 27, 2021

Investing in the Crypto Bear Market of 2021 for the Bitcoin, Eth Tulip Mania Bull Market of 2022 / Currencies / cryptocurrency

By: Nadeem_Walayat

This video is part 1 of an extensive full spectrum analysis of the crypto markets, of what I expect to happen over the next 6 months in terms of a Bitcoin price trend forecast, and the strategy I am deploying to capitalise on as well as 5 potential black swans that could collapse the crypto markets where Stable Coins such as USDT are what could be imminent catalysts for.

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Economics

Sunday, June 27, 2021

Two Reasons Hyperinflation Is Unlikely / Economics / HyperInflation

By: Kelsey_Williams

The correct definition of inflation is “the debasement of money by government and central banks“.  

The effects of inflation show up in the form of higher prices for all goods and services.

Hyperinflation is defined as “out-of-control general price increases in an economy, …typically measuring more than 50% per month.”  (source)

There are two specific reasons why hyperinflation re: out of control general price increases for all goods and services, possible US dollar collapse, etc., is unlikely.

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Commodities

Sunday, June 27, 2021

Powell Didn’t Come to Gold’s Rescue – Now What? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Powell’s testimony to Congress failed in generating a rebound in gold prices; thus, the bearish trend could continue.

On Tuesday (June 22) the Fed Chair testified before the Select Subcommittee on the Coronavirus Crisis, U.S. House of Representatives . Before Powell’s appearance in Congress, there were some hopes that he would soften the Fed’s hawkish signals from the previous week. However, these hopes only partially materialized.

This is because Powell’s testimony was basically a confirmation of the last FOMC meeting . In particular, he reiterated the view that higher inflation would be transitory, as “a substantial part or perhaps all of the overshoot in inflation are from categories directly affected by reopening.”

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Stock-Markets

Sunday, June 27, 2021

Market Bubbles Galore / Stock-Markets / Liquidity Bubble

By: MoneyMetals

Is the entire financial system currently in a massive bubble? That is the question that astute investors may now be asking.

According to Nouriel Roubini, CEO of Roubini Macro Associates and professor at NYU Stern School of Business, now is the time to be overweight gold as more bubbles pop up.

Stocks, bonds, crypto, tech, real estate, whatever sector you want to focus on – these all appear to now be building into or rapidly falling from bubble territory.

The higher these markets do ascend, the greater the eventual fall may be.

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Personal_Finance

Friday, June 25, 2021

How to Fix Windows 10 Boot Startup, Log on Problems Nightmare PC Needs to Restart Message / Personal_Finance / Computing

By: HGR

NIGHTMARE when your windows 10 fails to start instead your met with the dreaded @Your PC Needs to Restart@ blue message screen. And were automatic system repair fails. We'll here are the steps I went through to get back into Windows when I experienced such a failure and so can too can quickly get back into windows as well as taking further actions to make disaster recovery even more certain by means of making system images, even going as far as cloning ones system disk so in case of an even worse nightmare you can just swap out your system drive for the cloned one and be up and running.

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Companies

Friday, June 25, 2021

Have Cathy Woods ARK Invest Funds Bottomed? / Companies / Investing 2021

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Have Cathy Woods managed ARK funds such as ARKK hit bottomed? Given that a quick youtube search suggests many think so.

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Stock-Markets

Friday, June 25, 2021

Are The US Major Stock Market Indexes Rolling Over In An Excess Phase Peak Setup? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Recently, I published a research article on Bitcoin suggesting there may be a bigger downside price move setting up – breaking support near $30k and extending the Excess Phase Peak pattern that we warned about back in November 2020.  Today, my team and I wanted to alert you that the recent price rotation in the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Transportation Index COULD setup in an early stage (Phase #2) peaking formation similar to what started the recent down trend in Bitcoin.

The setup of the Excess Phase peak pattern consists of an exuberant rally to a peak (Phase #1), followed by a moderate price correction that sets up into a sideways flagging pattern (Phase #2).  If the INDU and TRAN continue to move in a sideways flagging formation after recently move moderately lower, we may start to see a new Excess Phase Peak setup in these two major indexes. This could be a warning of a much bigger breakdown in trend in the near future.

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Commodities

Friday, June 25, 2021

Fed’s Liquidity Circus and Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: P_Radomski_CFA

Fed pumped so much money into the financial system, that the latter started sending it back. How will this and Fed’s more hawkish tone impact gold?

With Jerome Powell, Chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve (FED), testifying before Congress on Jun. 22, his prepared remarks signaled that the FED remains on autopilot. Despite saying that “job gains should pick up in coming months as vaccinations rise,” he added that “we at the FED will do everything we can to support the economy for as long as it takes to complete the recovery.”

And while Powell supported our thesis by saying that “labor demand is remarkably strong and over time we will find ourselves with low unemployment and wages going up across the spectrum,” when asked if inflation is transitory, he responded:

“[Perhaps] all of the overshoot in inflation comes from categories such as rising used car and trucks, airplane tickets, hotel prices that have been affected by the reopening of the economy. [And while] these effects have turned out to be larger than we expected , the incoming data are consistent with the view that these factors will wane over time .” For context, of course inflationary pressures will “wane over time.” That’s not up for debate. However, “when” is the key question.

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Commodities

Friday, June 25, 2021

Fed 'Narrative Nonsense' Rattles Precious Metals Investors / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: The_Gold_Report

Sector expert Michael Ballanger explains how recent statements by the Federal Reserve could prove hazardous to one's wealth. In the past week, precious metals investors, speculators and traders have been forced to apply all kinds of salves, balms and ointments to jangled nerves, rattled resolve and battered net worth statements, all directly the result of an unexpected shift in the official narrative on interest rate policy released during Wednesday's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement.

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Companies

Thursday, June 24, 2021

Life Sciences Biotech Smaller Cap High Risk Stocks Investing Binge / Companies / BioTech

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Why has my focus shifted to biotech stocks and not more tech stocks?

Firstly, I have been investing in biotech stocks for DECADES, it's just that since 2015 my focus shifted to the emerging AI mega-trend to make sure I was invested to capitalise on a trend that was clear to me would span DECADES, at the time I thought I was probably getting in late on the AI Mega-trend but clearly that is always the case! WE ALWAYS THINK we're late to the party but this trend is going to run right into the end of the 2030's

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Commodities

Thursday, June 24, 2021

Central Banks to Keep Buying Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: MoneyMetals

The move away from the Federal Reserve Note as the global reserve currency of choice has continued in recent years, with fresh developments increasing the greenback’s stiff competition.
This has led to massive central bank buying of gold, and that trend appears set to continue in 2021. According to a recent report from the World Gold Council, 21% of global central banks plan to purchase gold this year.

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Commodities

Thursday, June 24, 2021

Will Gold Survive Hawkish Fed? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

The recent Fed’s hawkish turn is fundamentally negative for gold prices but there is still some hope.

The hawkish counter-revolution within the Fed continues. On Friday, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said that the recent FOMC shift towards a faster tightening of monetary policy was a natural response to faster economic growth and higher inflation than anticipated:

We were expecting a good year, a good reopening, but this is a bigger year than we were expecting, more inflation than we were expecting, and I think it's natural that we've tilted a little bit more hawkish here to contain inflationary pressures.

Bullard also noted that “Powell officially opened the taper discussion this week”. Indeed, in my Friday edition of the Fundamental Gold Report , I focused on the changed dot-plot , which suggested that FOMC members were ready to hike interest rates twice in 2023. However, the second major shift in the stance of the US central bank was that the Fed officials started to “talk about talking about” tapering.
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