Thursday, August 05, 2021
Revisiting The Excess Phase Stock Market Peak Pattern / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Chris_Vermeulen
The setup of the Excess Phase peak pattern consists of an exuberant rally to a peak (Phase #1), followed by a moderate price correction that sets up into a sideways flagging pattern (Phase #2). If the INDU and TRAN continue to move in a sideways flagging formation after recently moving moderately lower, we may start to see a new Excess Phase Peak setup in these two major indexes. This could be a warning of a much bigger breakdown in trends in the near future.
Please take a minute to review our earlier research posts related to the Excess Phase Peak setup (below) and how it related to the current market trend:
- November 25, 2020: HOW TO SPOT THE END OF AN EXCESS PHASE – PART I
- November 27, 2020: HOW TO SPOT THE END OF AN EXCESS PHASE – PART II
- May 20, 2021: BITCOIN COMPLETES PHASE #3 OF EXCESS PHASE TOP PATTERN – WHAT NEXT?
Thursday, August 05, 2021
Dramatic Divergence between US and European Stock Markets / Stock-Markets / Global Stock Markets
By: EWI
This chart shows a "dramatic divergence" between U.S. and European stocks
Cryptocurrencies and so-called meme stocks have certainly received a lot of attention from investors.
Another investment category that has been in favor recently is European equities. No, they may not be quite as "hot" as, say, bitcoin -- but they've been receiving more attention than usual.
Let's start with some recent headlines:
- U.S. investors are pouring money into European stock funds (Marketwatch, May 27)
- European Stocks Are Coming In From the Cold (Bloomberg, June 17)
- It's a Good Time to Invest in Europe (Kiplinger, June 24)
Thursday, August 05, 2021
Political Hacks Concoct Excuses for Their Inflation / Economics / Inflation
By: MoneyMetals
Jerome Powell, after last week’s FOMC meeting, said inflation has run hotter than expected. However, he wants to assure Americans that the destruction of their dollars’ purchasing power is temporary.
His diagnosis? Ballooning demand for goods and services when the U.S. economy reopened from COVID shutdowns drove prices higher.
Rest easy, folks. Prices will stop surging as soon as demand moderates and supply catches up!
That’s the official line, anyway.
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Thursday, August 05, 2021
Budgie Clipped Wings, How Long Before Flight Feathers Grow Back After Clipping, 4 Week Update / Personal_Finance / Animals & Pets
By: N_Walayat
So you have just clipped your budgies wings or are contemplating clipping it's wings. However, your wondering how long will it take for the budgie to grow new flight feathers and start flying again is answered in our latest budgie / parakeet care video where we have 2 budgies. the Green budgie had a total of 10 flight feathers clipped whilst the Blue budgie had 8 clipped. So lets find out how many have grown back after 8 weeks and what their flying capabilities are.
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Wednesday, August 04, 2021
Lisa Su's AMD Stock Price Rockets to the Moon! $200 Target, How to Buy for Under $78 / Companies / AMD
By: Nadeem_Walayat
AMD stock price rockets to new highs, trading to over $13 a share, as the emerging chip giant posted favourable earnings continuing it's phoenix like rise form the ashes that continues to erode Intel's market share. So why is AMD doing so well? We'll it's all down to ONE PERSON, Lisa Su! She took a dieing corporation trading at penny stock levels and turned it around. Much as that clown who ran Intel ruined that corporation over the same time period that Lisa Su was building AMD into a chip giant.
So the big question market Investors need to ask now is, did they AMD when it was dirt cheap, and if not why not? AND where is AMD heading to next, all in my latest AI Tech Stocks video.
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Wednesday, August 04, 2021
Gold Jumps for Joy Only to Hit the Ceiling… Hard / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: P_Radomski_CFA
Powell’s recent dovish remarks started a sugar high among investors. However, it seems like the hangover has already begun.
The Gold Miners
While gold, silver and mining stocks jumped for joy following Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s dovish remarks on Jul. 28, their sugar high ended on Jul. 30. And while I warned that FOMC press conferences often elicit short-term bursts of optimism, it was likely another case of ‘been there, done that.’
I wrote prior to the announcement:
While the PMs may record a short-term bounce – which often occurs following Powell’s pressers – lower lows are still likely to materialize in the coming months.
Wednesday, August 04, 2021
Is Wise Really The King of Online Money Transfer Services? / Personal_Finance / Forex Trading
By: Boris_Dzhingarov
Wise, formerly known as Transferwise, has generated tremendous success and hype over the past 10 years in the online foreign exchange transfer industry. Granted, the company is one of many that offer consumers a nearly identical service of transferring funds from one currency to another.
But what separates Wise from so many UK currency brokers is the fact that its two co-founders scaled a solution to a personal problem to become an industry titan.
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Wednesday, August 04, 2021
Tips for Investing Your Money in Stocks - The Ultimate Guide / Personal_Finance / Investing 2021
By: Mark_Adan
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Wednesday, August 04, 2021
Gold is the Key to Financial Wisdom / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Michael_J_Kosares
To fully understand markets, understand gold. It is the key to financial wisdom. By learning of its role as a financial asset, one will discover universal truths about the value of money, and hence, the underlying value of all assets. It does not do much good, for example, to make a small fortune in the stock market, only to see it dwindle (or disappear overnight) in an inflationary storm or an implosion in financial markets.
The central tenet to the wisdom of gold lies in its status as the most liquid and widely owned asset that is not simultaneously someone else’s liability. Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan once remarked: “No one refuses gold as payment to discharge an obligation. Credit instruments and fiat currency depend on the creditworthiness of a counter-party. Gold, along with silver, is one of the only currencies that has an intrinsic value. It has always been that way. No one questions its value, and it has always been a valuable commodity, first coined in Asia Minor in 600 BC.”
In 2001, James Grant wrote an essay aptly titled “For Real Money.” It is a study of gold’s role in the financial marketplace. Though two decades old, that essay still resonates today. In it, he said that a new bull market for gold was already underway. Few believed him, but he turned out to be right. At the time, the metal was trading in the $280 range. Over the ensuing twenty-year period, it would rise to a little over $1800 per ounce today for a total return of 567%, or just over 10% per year compounded. (Gold reached a record high in August 2020 at $2067 per ounce.) He summed up the need for gold as follows:
“There are many differences between physics and economics, but the greatest of these is that particles aren’t people. Participating in a monetary system, clever people will exploit the rules in such a way as eventually to bring the system down. The system in place subsidizes and encourages risk-taking and borrowing. Accordingly, leveraged financial structures and colossal debts abound. The gold standard failed by reason of its structure (perceived as rigid). The pure paper standard is failing on account of its lack of structure. Anticipating the end of the dominance of the paper dollar, we have cast around for an alternative. The answer we keep coming up with is the one you already know.”
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Monday, August 02, 2021
How to Trade Binance Vanilla Options for the First Time on Bitcoin, Crypto's / Currencies / cryptocurrency
By: HGR
Trading Options on Binance, looking at the options screen for the first time can be a daunting sight, what does it all mean here I show you what all of the facts and figures mean as I put on my very first Calls, Puts long and short options trades on Binance's Vanilla options trading platform, not to be confused with their Neapolitan or chocolate options :). Though do bare in mind that OPTONS are VERY HIGH RISK! So if your considering trading options start very, very small! I just started with 11 bucks that's how small because at the beginning it is very easy to make a mistake. So again start very small and beware that trading options is VERY HIGH RISK so do, do research before jumping in with both feet.
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Monday, August 02, 2021
From vaccine inequality to economic apartheid / Politics / Coronavirus 2021
By: Dan_Steinbock
Thanks to the containment failures of Covid-19 and the resultant new variants, coupled with vaccine inequality, global prospects are overshadowed by economic apartheid – the polarization between the West and poorer countries.Today, sub-Saharan Africa is in the grip of a third wave, parts of Latin America continue to see high levels of new deaths, and concerns remain about the Covid-19 situation in parts of South and Southeast Asia.
In Africa, the highly infectious Delta variant of coronavirus is spreading like a wildfire. Infection numbers have soared for 1.5 months with 224,000 new cases being recorded every week. Due to the low degree of testing, detection and vaccination, real numbers are much higher than official estimates.
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Monday, August 02, 2021
Stock Market Intermediate Top Reached / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX Long-term trend: There is some evidence that we are still in the bull market which started in 2009 and which could continue into 2021 until major cycles take over, and it ends. A move up to ~4500 is possible before the current bull market makes a final top and SPX corrects into its next major cycle low due in 2023.
SPX Intermediate trend: SPX has now reached its next intermediate top.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. They are important adjuncts to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which determine longer market trends.
Monday, August 02, 2021
Gold at a Crossroads of Hawkish Fed and High Inflation / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Gold has been trading sideways recently, but this won’t last forever – the yellow metal is likely to move downward before continuing its rise.
So, so you think you can tell heaven from hell, a bull market from a bear market? It’s not so easy, as gold seems to be at a crossroads. On the one hand, accelerating inflation should take gold higher, especially that the real interest rates stay well below zero. On the other hand, a hawkish Fed should send the yellow metal lower, as it would boost the expectations of higher bond yields. The Fed’s tightening cycle increases the interest rates and strengthens the US dollar, creating downward pressure on gold.
However, gold is neither soaring nor plunging. Instead, it seems to be in a sideways trend. Indeed, as the chart below shows, gold has been moving in a trading zone of $1,700-$1,900 since September 2020.
Sunday, August 01, 2021
Bitcoin, Crypto Market Black Swans from Google to Obsolescence / Currencies / Bitcoin
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
This is part 3 of my extensive full spectrum analysis of the crypto markets, of what I expect to happen over the next 6 months in terms of a Bitcoin price trend forecast, and the strategy I am deploying to capitalise on as well as 5 potential black swans that could collapse the crypto markets where Stable Coins such as USDT are what could be imminent catalysts for. (Part 1 Investing in the Tulip Crypto Mania 2021, Part 2 Bitcoin Halvings Price Forecast and Stock to Flow Analysis)
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Sunday, August 01, 2021
Gold Stocks Autumn Rally / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2021
By: Zeal_LLC
The gold miners’ stocks were whacked hard earlier this summer on a Fed-rate-hikes scare. That serious anomaly really damaged sentiment, spawning exceptionally-weak seasonal performance in this contrarian sector. But the bruised gold stocks and the metal they mine have trudged through, making it back to the start of their traditional strong season. That begins with robust autumn rallies that usually start marching now.
Seasonality is the tendency for prices to exhibit recurring patterns at certain times during the calendar year. While seasonality doesn’t drive price action, it quantifies annually-repeating behavior driven by sentiment, technicals, and fundamentals. We humans are creatures of habit and herd, which naturally colors our trading decisions. The calendar year’s passage affects the timing and intensity of buying and selling.
Gold stocks exhibit strong seasonality because their price action mirrors that of their dominant primary driver, gold. Gold’s seasonality generally isn’t driven by supply fluctuations like grown commodities see, as its mined supply remains relatively steady year-round. Instead gold’s major seasonality is demand-driven, with global investment demand varying considerably depending on the time in the calendar year.
This gold seasonality is fueled by well-known income-cycle and cultural drivers of outsized gold demand from around the world. Starting in late summers, Asian farmers begin to reap their harvests. As they figure out how much surplus income was generated from all their hard work during the growing season, they wisely plow some of their savings into gold. Asian harvest is followed by India’s famous wedding season.
Indians believe getting married during their autumn festivals is auspicious, increasing the likelihood of long, successful, happy, and even lucky marriages. And Indian parents outfit their brides with beautiful and intricate 22-karat gold jewelry, which they buy in vast quantities. That’s not only for adornment on their wedding days, but these dowries secure brides’ financial independence within their husbands’ families.
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Sunday, August 01, 2021
Earn Upto 6% Interest Rate on USD Cash Deposits with Binance Crypto Exchange USDC amd BUSD / Personal_Finance / cryptocurrency
By: Nadeem_Walayat
How can one earn a decent rate of interest on CASH, or near to cash as one can get in a select few stable coins such as BUSD and USDC, note I am ignoring the largest stable coin USDT because I consider that as being ponzi scheme. Nevertheless crypto exchanges offer a way to earn an interest rate of as much as 6% on CASH USD deposits! Of course one should NOT just bung the whole of their excess cash onto a crypto exchange such as Binance for 6% as the risks of loss of funds is too high!
However, I have funded this crypto exchange whilst I await for better crypto prices to invest into, and those funds can earn as much as 6%! So at this point in time I am only depositing a relatively small amount of funds whilst I wait for the crypto bear market to play out over the next 6 months, in the meantime I am earning a return that is a good 5X what any banks are offer for deposits.
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Sunday, August 01, 2021
Vuze XR VR 3D Camera Takes Near 2 Minutes to Turn On, Buggy Firmware / ConsumerWatch / Technology
By: HGR
This Vuze XR VR 180 and 3D camera is proving to be a pain in the butt as it takes literally for ever to turn on! 2 MINUTES! How can one grab those moments when one has to wait for 2 minutes before it videos anything! Here's what the issue is straight out of the box that will probably require a firmware update to fix.
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Sunday, August 01, 2021
Sun EXPLODES! Goes SuperNova! Will Any planets Survive? Jupiter? Pluto? / Personal_Finance / Education
By: N_Walayat
Sun flashes, explodes at best we would have a 3 minute warning of doom, for if the Sun goes SuperNova one things for sure the Earth would be toast, v vaporised within minutes but what about the other plants in our Solar System? Surely giant Jupiter would survive? If not what about far distant Pluto? Find out as I EXPLODE the Sun and see what happens.
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Friday, July 30, 2021
USDT is 9-11 for Central Banks the Bitcoin Black Swan - Tether Un-Stable Coin Ponzi Schemes! / Currencies / cryptocurrency
By: Nadeem_Walayat
To get my crypto bear market investing ball rolling I recently opened an account with Binance (10% trading fees discount link). Deposited £3600 sterling that I quickly converted into USDT so as to initiate my initial limit orders on mainly BTC and ETH, aiming to add more funds and limit orders over the next few weeks. Unfortunately on taking a closer look at USDT Tether stable coin which probably holds true for most of the other so called stable coins, I find that USDT is NOT backed 1 for 1 by that which it seeks to represent i.e. from what I have gleaned at best USDT is backed by 75% of dollar 'safe-ish' assets with most of the remaining 25% may not even exist i.e. PRINTED MONEY! Likely to cover losses incurred to date such as the $800 million USDT's parent company lost some years ago etc,. So USDT's true value is somewhere between 15% and 25% LESS than that of the US Dollar given it's actual reserves as I covered in my recent video, and the backing could be far worse as exchanges use USDT to allow traders to trade on margin and thus are vested interests in perpetuating this scam.
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Friday, July 30, 2021
Behavior of Inflation and US Treasury Bond Yields Seems… Contradictory / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
The bond yields dropped despite surging inflation. It’s not a usual thing on the market, so we have to ask: what does it mean for gold?The markets hide many mysteries. One of them is the recent slide in the long-term bond yields. As the chart below shows, both the nominal interest rates and the real interest rates have been in a downside trend since March (with a short-lived rebound in June). Indeed, the 10-year Treasury yield reached almost 1.75% at the end of March, and by July it decreased to about 1.25%, while the inflation-adjusted yield dropped from -0.63% to about -1%.
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