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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Commodities

Wednesday, August 18, 2021

When Gold Price Rises, Will Bitcoin Fall? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: P_Radomski_CFA

What do the portents say? Well, we’ve been looking for connections between gold and bitcoin, and we see a chance to fatten the coffers. Read on.

But first, let’s talk about gold and the miners. Yesterday’s session provided us with a perfect confirmation of the bearish case in the precious metals sector for the short term.

The reason is that what happened was bearish in two ways:

  1. Nothing happened in gold
  2. Daily declines in mining stocks
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Currencies

Tuesday, August 17, 2021

Ethereum (ETH) Buying Levels - My Crypto Market Investing Strategy / Currencies / cryptocurrency

By: Nadeem_Walayat

1. BTC & ETH - My primary focus will be on building positions in BTC and ETH that will target approx 80% of my crypto portfolio, the balance spread between a number of Alt Coins such as Cardano and Pokadot.

2. Hold BUSD and USDC - In advance of buying crypto's I am funding my accounts (mainly Binance) with approx 50% of my target position size to as to capitalise on a high GBP exchange rate, converting into BUSD and USD whilst also correcting my initial error of holding USDT.

3. Place limit orders on approx half of the funds on account across the target crypto's in relatively nearby levels compared to the more distant levels i.e. BTC $21,500 and ETH $1400. Whilst my initial limit orders are far distant from the actual crypto prices as I am anticipating a decline in prices. However over time my orders will gravitate towards being nearer to the actual spot price i.e. over the next 6 months and where I could even be buy crypto at spot rather than with limit orders depending on what transpires over the remainder of this year due to various dynamics such as the Ravencoin halving due in Jan 2022 etc in advance of which I want to have a significant holding of raven coins.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, August 17, 2021

August Stock Market Flash Crashes Historical Analysis / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Crash

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Weakening volume after an extended rally phase is fairly common.  It represents a complacency in the markets where traders/investors are unwilling to chase an extended rally phase at higher prices.  Often traders are waiting for some type of market correction or rotation to happen – which will allow them to deploy capital back into the markets at decreased price levels.  Sometimes, this diminishing volume presents a unique scenario where traders shift their expectations away from traditional “buy the dip” thinking and that can sometimes create what is called a Flash Crash event.

Revisiting the August 2015 Flash Crash Event

In August 2015, a unique Flash Crash took place that prompted a -12.5% collapse in the S&P 500 in just four trading days – after a bout of selling pressure on a Wednesday/Thursday/Friday.  The following Monday, the markets opened with a small lower opening gap, yet traders were unwilling to buy into the ASK and this created a very unique scenario where price exploration created a widening price void.  As algos and computers continued to try to find active buyers in the marketplace, the ASK/BID spreads continued to widen as the liquidity trap had sprung.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, August 17, 2021

Fresh Stock Market Highs to Meet Fresh Volatility / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Monica_Kingsley

Inflationary pressures building up aren‘t spooking the markets, there is no forcing the Fed‘s hand through rising yields. The bond vigilantes seem a distant memory as yields are trading well below their historical band, stunningly low given the hot inflation data. I‘m not saying red hot because the monthly CPI figure came in line with expectations, providing relief to the transitory camp. But last week‘s ISM services PMI and yesterday‘s PPI paint a very different story (to come).

My call about summer lull in bonds before these slowly but surely make their way higher (the 10-year to 1.80%), is turning out just as well as the inflation expectations‘ continued rebound. The cheap magic of Fed‘s June jawboning is losing its luster. Stocks steady and making marginally higher ATHs practically daily, uneven credit markets, gold holding up well following Monday‘s hit job, oil and copper trading in narrow ranges while the crypto uptrend goes on – fresh profits harvested across the markets yesterday, and new ones growing today.

The countdown to the Jackson Hole is on though, with the Fed practically having to do something – something in all likelihood face saving only as the record deficit spending gives it little to no maneuvering room.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, August 16, 2021

US Bond Market Long-term Trend / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The screeching that one hears from the likes of Michael "Big Short" Burry is that the US Bond market is about to collapse. We'll all I can see when looking at the long-term chart is that since the pandemic panic bond market spike of March 2020, bonds have been in a correction against it's primary bull trend, and that correction appears to have ENDED.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, August 16, 2021

Stock Market Strong Intermediate Reversal Warning / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Andre_Gratian

Current Position of the Market

SPX Long-term trend:  There is some evidence that we are still in the bull market which started in 2009 and which could continue into 2021 until major cycles take over, and it ends.  A move up to ~4500 is possible before the current bull market makes a final top and SPX corrects into its next major cycle low due in 2023.

SPX Intermediate trend:  SPX should now have reached its next intermediate top.

Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. They are important adjuncts to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which determine longer market trends.

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Companies

Monday, August 16, 2021

The Trillion Dollar Health Trend Taking Over Wall Street / Companies / Health and Fitness

By: Submissions

...

 


Stock-Markets

Monday, August 16, 2021

How Options Are Fueling The Markets / Stock-Markets / Options & Warrants

By: Chris_Vermeulen

In the past week, we have seen the Nasdaq and the S&P reach all-time highs.  Since the covid crash, we have seen some massive movement to the upside.  I believe there are several factors driving these markets up.

First, let’s look at the covid crisis and how it played a role. As a result of the shutdowns, the FED took a really aggressive stance with its quantitative easing measures.  Lots of money printing to pay for massive stimulus payouts.  The worse news we hear historically is that the markets will react sharply to the downside. 

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Stock-Markets

Sunday, August 15, 2021

Stock Market Margin Debt Bubble / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Nadeem_Walayat

A handful of stocks are driving the indices higher, Apple worth $2.3 trillion, Microsoft $2 trillion, Amazon $1.8 trillion, Google 1.8 trillion, Facebook $1 trillion even that over priced pile of poop Tesla came close to being valued at $1 trillion, we are definitely in a bubble, you only need to go onto youtube and watch the to the moon videos of Cathy Wood, literally everything's going to go to the moon because her barely out of puberty Quants decree it to be so. This is clearly a major warning sign of a unsustainable trend when indices are ruled by such a small clique of tech stocks where the greatest similarity is with the dot come bubble in terms of the valuation of stocks that actually produce revenues unlike the largely worthless dot com's of that time.

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Stock-Markets

Sunday, August 15, 2021

Increasing Risks for Stock Market CRASH 2021 - AI Stocks Portfolio Buying and Selling Levels / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The US stock market has been content to rally to new highs with many stocks going to the Moon including most of our AI tech giants, a rally that I have been distributing into to the extent that I have now sold 80% of my holdings in the Top 6 AI stocks in my portfolio.

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Stock-Markets

Sunday, August 15, 2021

Financial System Liquidity Alarm / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2021

By: Gary_Tanashian

Market liquidity is draining from different vantage points

On Wednesday I made a post that showed the “metallic credit spread” (as coined by Bob Hoye) known as the Gold/Silver ratio (GSR) flipped on its head (to Silver/Gold) to indicate a dangerous situation for the S&P 500, if past is prologue. Here is that post and here is the Tweet that followed…

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Personal_Finance

Sunday, August 15, 2021

Corsair MP600 NVME M.2 SSD Review, Crystal Disk, Atto Benchmarks, How Hot Does it Get? / Personal_Finance / Computing

By: HGR

Corsair MP600 is a PCIE4.0 SSD drive with advertised read speeds of upto 4950 mb/s and write speeds of upto 4250 mm/s and in this video we benchmark a couple of these drives to see if real world use matches the sales pitch. Furthermore given the high access speeds it's good to know how hot these SSD drives get! As usually the hotter the drive the more likely it is to fail earlier, especially when SSD temps approach and pass 60c! So find out in our latest video of what to expect with MP600 SSD's

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Personal_Finance

Sunday, August 15, 2021

Birthday Balloons and Amazon Surprise Gifts for 7 Year Old Birthday Girl / Personal_Finance / Shopping

By: N_Walayat

It's Eliza's 7th Birthday soon and what is a requirement of all birthdays? Balloons, lots and lots of Balloons! And so Eliza begins the process of blowing up her own birthday balloons in advance of her birthday,

If you like Eliza's videos then consider sending her a surprise birthday present over Amazon, you can check out her birthday with list here - Eliza's Amazon Wish List. Nothing fancy or expensive but some of the items that she would like as a birthday gift, and of course we will feature any gifts received in a future video.

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Currencies

Saturday, August 14, 2021

Bitcoin Price Trend Analysis / Currencies / Bitcoin

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Dear Reader

This is part 4 of 5 of my extensive full spectrum analysis of the crypto markets, of what I expect to happen over the next 6 months in terms of a Bitcoin price trend forecast, and the strategy I am deploying to capitalise on as well as 5 potential black swans that could collapse the crypto markets where Stable Coins such as USDT are what could be imminent catalysts for.

Part 1 Investing in the Tulip Crypto Mania 2021,

Part 2 Bitcoin Halvings Price Forecast and Stock to Flow Analysis)

Part 3 Bitcoin, Crypto Market Black Swans from Google to Obsolescence

Bitcoin Bear Market Trend Forecast 2021 and Model Crypto Portfolio Buying Levels

Topics covered in this analysis:

  • Investing in the Tulip Crypto Mania
  • Bitcoin Price Trend Forecast Review
  • Lessons Learned
  • Cathy Crypto Wood's View on Bitcoin
  • BITCOIN HALVINGS TREND TRAJECTORY
  • Stock to Flow Infinity and Beyond!
  • Bitcoin, Crypto's and the Inflation Mega-trend
  • Black Swan 1 - Will Crypto's Get Banned?
  • Black Swan 2 - GOOGLE
  • Black Swan 3 - USDT Tether Un-Stable Coin Ponzi Schemes!
  • BLACK SWAN 4 - Bitcoin 51% Network Attack by China?
  • Black Swan 5 - Bitcoin is Already Obsolete
  • US Trending Towards Hyperinflation
  • BITCOIN TREND ANALYSIS
  • Bitcoin Bear markets analysis - How low could she blow?
  • Bitcoin Trend Forecast
  • Bitcoin Long-term probable Next bull market price target
  • Alternative Scenarios
  • My Crypto Bear Market Investing Strategy
  • Crypto 1 - Ethereum (ETH) $2600
  • Crypto 2 - Bitcoin $40,375
  • Crypto 3 - Ravencoin $0.078
  • Crypto 4 - Cardano $1.59
  • Crypto 5 - Pokadot $25
  • Crypto 6 - ChainLink $26
  • Crypto's 7 to 10
  • Creating The Perfect Crypto
  • How to Invest in Crypto Without Getting SCAMMED
  • CHIA SCAM COIN
  • Binance vs Coinbase
  • Have ARK Invest Funds Bottomed?
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Economics

Saturday, August 14, 2021

Everything Peaked in 1980 – The Waning Effects Of Inflation / Economics / Inflation

By: Kelsey_Williams

EVERYTHING PEAKED IN 1980

Both gold and crude oil peaked at all-time highs in 1980. Those highs are still intact when the effects of inflation are accounted for. Below are the charts for both gold and crude oil…

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Commodities

Saturday, August 14, 2021

Nonfarm Payrolls Crushed Gold Like a Sandcastle / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

The US economy added almost 1 million jobs in July, building solid ground for tapering. Meanwhile, the PMs’ sandy foundations crumbled spectacularly.

Another blow to gold! July’s nonfarm payrolls came in strong. As the chart below shows, the US labor market added 943,000 jobs last month, following 938,000 additions in June (after an upward revision). More than one-third of all gains occurred in leisure and hospitality, reflecting the economy’s reopening after the Great Lockdown.

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Housing-Market

Saturday, August 14, 2021

U.S. Housing Market: Not "a Bubble This Time Around"? / Housing-Market / US Housing

By: EWI

Here's what usually coincides with a big decline in real estate prices

You probably know that the U.S. housing market has been red hot.

A certified financial planner wrote a July 20 article for Kiplinger, mentioning the record price levels in many areas of the country, and then added a personal observation:

I witnessed the price rise first-hand. I recently returned from a family vacation in the North Carolina mountains, where many homes now sell for double or triple the price compared to just a couple of years ago.

Stories abound of buyers signing contracts on homes without even doing a walk through. Some real estate agents are advising buyers to forgo inspections, saying they will just slow the process.

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Commodities

Friday, August 13, 2021

Gold Miners: Celebration Time / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: P_Radomski_CFA

Another day, another decline in junior miners – and another increase in profits from short positions in them. Shouldn’t we expect a rebound though?

Well, no. The rebound already happened in late July and early August, and what we see now is the trend being resumed. Consequently, even if it wasn’t for all the long-term analogies to the 2012-2013 declines in gold and gold stocks (HUI Index), one should expect the current short-term decline to be significantly bigger than the counter-trend upswing which ended earlier this month. At this time, the move lower is just somewhat bigger than the preceding rally. Thus, it’s not excessive and can easily continue.

However, let’s keep in mind that periods of very high volatility usually need to be followed by periods of relatively low volatility. That’s when investors verify if the “new reality” – the price levels after the decline – are justified or not. If the market votes “no”, we get huge rebounds and breakdowns’ invalidations. So far this week, the markets have been voting “yes”.

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Personal_Finance

Friday, August 13, 2021

Budgies Outdoor Wet Grass Natural Bath Time Fun Play - VR 180 3D / Personal_Finance / Animals & Pets

By: N_Walayat

Here;s another unique budgie video from the Walayat Family budgie / parakeet care experts. In this video our budgies have bath time fun outdoors in wet grass! Shot in VR 3D 180, a completely unique VR experience, probably a world first! And even if you don't have an headset then any 180 capable browser such as fire fox will allow you to pan around the garden as the budgies enjoy their bath fun time.

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Commodities

Friday, August 13, 2021

Precious Metals “Mini Flash Crash” Surprises Markets / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Overnight, on Sunday and early Monday, Precious Metals and Oil started a fairly big collapse which quickly bottomed and recovered – at least in the Precious Metals markets.  Crude Oil is still moving lower in early trading on Monday, August 9, 2021.  Can we learn anything from the pre-COVID market trends and extrapolate any real-world analysis from this?

Precious Metals “Mini Flash Crash” Surprises Markets This Week

One thing that struck me related to this move is this is a similar type of move that took place at the start of COVID in February 2021.  Crude Oil started to move lower in early January 2020 while the US stock market continued to move higher before the COVID virus event hit.  Gold also moved higher from January 2020 to a peak in February 2020 – just before COVID.  Yet, all of them, Precious Metals, Oil, and the US major markets, moved dramatically lower as soon as the reality of a COVID type economic event setup and traders realized the scope of the issues before all of us.

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