Most Popular
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2.Stock Market Presidential Election Cycle Seasonal Trend Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
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8.The Bond Trade and Interest Rates - Nadeem_Walayat
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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Housing-Market

Sunday, April 07, 2024

Hidden cost of US homeownership just saw its biggest spike in 5 years / Housing-Market / US Housing

By: Submissions

As millions of Americans lose sleep over record mortgage costs, many overlook one of the biggest expenses they’ll incur as homeowners: property tax.

According to real estate data analytics firm ATTOM, property taxes jumped by 6.9% or more than $4,000 in 2023—the largest annual increase in five years. It's also double the gain from a year earlier.

“Property taxes took an unusually high turn upward last year, pushing effective rates up, while huge gaps in average tax bills between different parts of [the] country remained in place,” said Rob Barber, ATTOM’s chief executive.

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Commodities

Sunday, April 07, 2024

What Happens To Gold Price If The Fed Doesn’t Cut Rates? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2024

By: Kelsey_Williams

GOLD PRICE IF THE FED DOESN’T CUT

With the increasing gold price of late comes the assumption that the expected cut in interest rates will open a torrent of cheap money that will bring the U.S. dollar down with a thud.  But, what would happen to the gold price if the Fed doesn’t cut interest rates?

What seemed like a universally expected event may not be as likely as some have assumed. In fact, the Fed has a history that includes examples of pivots and re-pivots; or, ignoring the presumed pivot and staying the course.

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Interest-Rates

Sunday, April 07, 2024

The Fed is becoming increasingly divided on interest rates / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Submissions

Powell reaffirms multiple rate cuts are on the table, but his peers thinks we’ll be lucky to get one this year

The Fed's officials can’t seem to get their stories straight.

On April 3, Fed Chair Jerome Powell reaffirmed his expectations for multiple rate cuts this year, shrugging off the recent uptick in inflation.

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Currencies

Sunday, April 07, 2024

The Evils of Paper Money Have no End / Currencies / Fiat Currency

By: MoneyMetals

Many prominent American founders warned us about paper money.

Thomas Paine may have summed it up best:

“The evils of paper money have no end.”

In an 1814 letter to Thomas Cooper, Thomas Jefferson was prophetic.

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, April 03, 2024

Stock Market Presidential Election Cycle Seasonal Trend Analysis / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024

By: Nadeem_Walayat

How are you enjoying AI tech stocks gravy train bull market of 2024?

This is my latest instalment of my in-depth analysis and and concluding S&P detailed trend forecast for 2024 - S&P Stock Market Analysis, Detailed Trend Forecast Jan to Dec 2024 that was first been made available to patrons who support my work.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, April 02, 2024

Stock Market Presidential Election Cycle Seasonal Trend / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024

By: Nadeem_Walayat

During 2023 it seemed like everyone woke up to the importance of the US presidential election cycle.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, April 02, 2024

Dow Stock Market Annual Percent Change Analysis 2024 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Dow Annual Percent Change

The 2022 Dow Annual Percent Change chart which accurately warned to expect the Dow to drop to 28k during 2022 in 2021 and that the Dow was cheap October 2022.

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Currencies

Sunday, March 31, 2024

Bitcoin S&P Pattern / Currencies / Bitcoin

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Here's a log chart of the Bitcoin price and S&P where I broken the bitcoin trend down into main bull and bear markets, which so far have been followed by minor bull and bear markets.

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Stock-Markets

Sunday, March 31, 2024

S&P Stock Market Correlating Seasonal Swings / Stock-Markets / Seasonal Trends

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Correlating Seasonal Swings

Not satisfied with just seasonal swings I've continued to evolve my near term seasonal swings analysis by comparing the year on year change of the past 5 years which resolves in the following recency bias pattern. Which is very similar to the above monthly seasonal analysis and only really differs to last years analysis in terms of the correction during May and June.

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Stock-Markets

Sunday, March 31, 2024

S&P SEASONAL ANALYSIS / Stock-Markets / Seasonal Trends

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The seasonal pattern suggests after a pause in Feb, higher into late April, then correct from early May into late June followed by a brief rally into late July /. Early August before a deep correction into Mid October, resolving in a sharp reversal to end October higher, which would set the scene for a bull run into the end of the year.

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Interest-Rates

Sunday, March 31, 2024

Here's a Dirty Little Secret: Federal Reserve Monetary Policy Is Still Loose / Interest-Rates / US Federal Reserve Bank

By: MoneyMetals

Everybody wants to know when the Federal Reserve is going to declare victory over price inflation and begin loosening monetary policy.

The real question is - when are they going to make monetary policy tight again?

Because despite all the worry about high interest rates, monetary policy remains relatively loose. 

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Companies

Sunday, March 31, 2024

Tandem Chairman Paul Pester on Fintech, AI, and the Future of Banking in the UK / Companies / Banking Stocks

By: Sumeet_Manhas

Since the emergence of the first online-only challenger banks and fintech startups in the early 2010s, the U.K. banking landscape has undergone a profound transformation, culminating in the ubiquity of mobile finance. One of the early architects of this shift, Paul Pester, is now the chairman of U.K. green digital bank Tandem, and he hopes to draw on decades of experience in digital banking to support new avenues for improving consumers’ retail banking experience and supporting the next wave of fintech startups.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, March 25, 2024

Stock Market Volatility (VIX) / Stock-Markets / Volatility

By: Nadeem_Walayat

One of the reasons why so many have missed the bull market boat during 2023 is because they focused on the likes of the VIX whilst starting in the rear view mirror at 2022 completely flummoxed as to why the stock market is not having a spike in the vix so they can buy. What they failed to understand is that volatility is LOWER during bull markets, so no the vix was unlikely to spike to levels they were all waiting for.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, March 25, 2024

Stock Market Investor Sentiment / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024

By: Nadeem_Walayat

TD Ameritrades retail investors sentiment chart illustrates this fact, retail investors have been SELLING since the July high, which followed fairly feeble accumulation, convinced by the cartoon network's mantra that a recession is coming.... Just look at the chart, there is NO FOMO! The S&P is on the verge of breaking to a new all time high and most investors are sat on the sidelines waiting for their fantasy S&P 3200 to materialise! This SHOWS you where you would also be if you had followed the herd during 2023! Another reminder - DO NOT PAY ANY ATTENTION TO MSM which is populated by clueless journalists and fund managers (sales people).

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Interest-Rates

Monday, March 25, 2024

The Federal Reserve Didn't Do Anything But It Had Plenty to Say / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: MoneyMetals

The Federal Reserve didn’t do anything at its March Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, but Jerome Powell & Company had plenty to say.

The Fed’s dovish rhetoric sent a wave of relief through the markets and drove stocks to yet another all-time high.

People would probably be wise to remember that saying isn’t doing.

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Stock-Markets

Sunday, March 24, 2024

Stock Market Breadth / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Cumulative NYSE Advancing / Declining issues proved a useful early warning indicator going into the stock 2021 market top, since which closely tracked the markets decline into the bear market bottom, flashing relative strength during the bull market, the only false signal was the sell off into late October. Presently is showing divergence to the S&P i.e. suggesting a downtrend is imminent.

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Stock-Markets

Sunday, March 24, 2024

Stock Market Margin Debt Indicator / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Margin debt tends to peak and fall long before the stock market turns lower as basically speculators start to feel the pain of holding losing positions and thus cut back on their bets. Either that or are forced to close their losing trades due to failure to meet margin calls, in which respect this indicator proved very useful in flagging the prospects for a bear market long before it materialised as stock prices trended higher on petrol fumes as the fuel tank was empty.

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Stock-Markets

Sunday, March 24, 2024

It’s Easy to Scream Stocks Bubble! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024

By: Stephen_McBride

As I write, it’s currently the 15th anniversary of the 2009 stock market low.

In March '09, US stocks were trading at levels not seen since 1996. Investors had suffered more than a lost decade.

Fast-forward to today, and the S&P 500 has surged 650% off those generational lows.

It’s easy to look at the S&P’s 650% rise and scream “bubble!”
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Stock-Markets

Sunday, March 24, 2024

Stocks: What to Make of All This Insider Selling / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024

By: EWI

Here are details of "The Great Cash-Out"

Corporate insiders may sell the shares of their company for any number of reasons but one of them is not because they think the price is going up.

In other words, insider selling can serve as a warning.

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Stock-Markets

Sunday, March 24, 2024

Money Supply Continues To Fall, Economy Worsens – Investors Don’t Care / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2024

By: Kelsey_Williams

The money supply continues to fall, but investors don’t seem to care. They are convinced that their success is connected to a potential Fed shift in interest rate policy. Nothing else seems to matter. That is partially attributable to the fact that, as the financial markets continue their upward trajectory, less and less attention is paid to the deteriorating economy. And, the deterioration is getting worse.

When worsening economic conditions – especially in the labor market – are pointed out, it is either not noticed or ignored. The wealthy and well-connected don’t care; and others don’t know enough to care. If stocks are up, things must be okay.

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