US Bond Market Panic Continues Towards May Expected Japanese Rate Hike Volatility Spike
Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2025 Apr 24, 2025 - 04:27 PM GMTBy: Nadeem_Walayat
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Tuesday 22nd April 6am UK Time
US 10 year yield is now 4.41% heading for 5%+
Capital has been flowing out of the US since before Donald Dump implemented his tariffs on 3rd April, stocks, dollar and bonds all falling together
Instead of President Dumbo trying to fix the damage he has done. he's been busy putting up a smoke screen so that he can deflect blame onto others such as Fed Chair Jerome Powell for not cutting interest rates and thus responsible for the recession that Trump is causing completely ignorant to the damage that he is doing or maybe it's all part of Agent Orange's plan kill America for Putin?
China China China - The narrative is China is SELLING US Bonds but what China if it plays this intelligently should do to grab Trump by his tiny balls is to BUY US Bonds WHEN the yields spike to over 5%! So China is probably NOT selling US bonds, it's everyone else who is panic selling US Bonds!
Gold safe haven $3430 targeting $4k, FOMO is kicking in, imagine where it will be after 4 years of Trump chaos! China central bank has a lot more gold then they officially say, reserve currency by stealth. I think the Britain's King has more gold in his crown then the UK central bank has in it's vaults, the morons have played it badly, went all in on US treasury bonds!
Bitcoin $87k non dollar asset targeting $100k as per article, but it's not a safe haven i.e. during a panic it does tend to tank along with tech stocks, so it is trying to snake higher but won't be able to buck the coming storm.
This means stocks, bonds and the dollar will continue lower as per article S&P targeting just above 4800, traded down to 5100 Monday. VIX failed to fall to under 30 now spiking higher again which suggests building towards another panic event. We are getting further discounts in AI tech stocks, i.e. Nvidia right now is trading at $97 where 4800 could deliver as low as $80.
TESLA EARNINGS TODAY $227 - EGFS -3%, 24%, Dir -7%, PE RANGE 147% / 101%
Tesla earnings miss baked in so if there is one stock that should take a big dump that stock is TESLA, though Musk is good at talking the stock up with fairy tales of FSD that is 10 years late!, he will pump Optimus but with X-AI I suspect most of the AI profit will go to him through that vehicle rather then Tesla. Anyway lets see if Tesla breaks below $200 which has been my expectation as of $460. We need to see the deputy fuhrer cry on break below sub $200 given that what he spends is borrowed against his Tesla stock, how low could Tesla blow? when the dust finally settles we could see Tesla trading at sub $120.
GOOGLE Reports Thursday - $149 - EGFS 3%, 16% Dir-1%, PE RANGE 5% / -22%
Expect earnings beat, Google is CHEAP! Continues to integrate Gemini into it's products, the only downside is that it's not as good as Chat GPT. Google needs to boost Gemini, make it more easily available for FREE to folk else Chat GPT will eventually impact on Google's earnings. I want to see what Google says about what it's going to do to kill Chat GPT's user growth rate.
Earnings season will give us an early warning of the coming recession in the direction of travel column W which I suspect will turn negative for most stocks.
Latest article -
Stock Market Tarrified as President Dump Risks Turning Recession into a Stagflationary Depression
https://www.patreon.com/posts/stock-market-as-126879270
Spreadsheet metrics in process of being updated (link in article)
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Nadeem Walayat
Most recent analysis -
Stock Market Tarrified as President Dump Risks Turning Recession into a Stagflationary Depression
Contents
Trumpet of the Apocalypse
The Yen Carry Trade
Bitcoin Brief
US Exponential Budget Deficit
QE4EVER
US Interest Rates
Trade War Unintended Consequences
Trump Tax Cuts
Stock Market's Got Anxiety - Panic Attacks!
Stock Market Volatility
AI Stocks Portfolio current state
ASML - Wednesday 16th April - $673 - EGF 29% / 33%, PE Range 53% / 11%
TSMC - Thurs 17th April - $155 - EGF 21%, 43%, PE Range 62% / 26%
TSLA - Tues 22nd April - $252 - EGF -2%, 27%, PE Range 173% / 116%
IBM - Wednesday 23rd April - $239 - EGF 3%, 8%, PE Range 95% / 80%
LRCX - 23rd April - $68 - EGF 14%, 12%, PE Ranges 76% / 60%
Google $158 - EGF +5%, +19%, PE Ranges 16% / -15%.
Who wants to Live for Ever?
Canada's New National Anthem
Recent analysis - Stocks Bull Market End Game Bear Start Strategy
CONTENTS
Money Printer Getting Ready to go Brrr
Trumponomics Breaks the US Dollar
S&P Correction Trend
Deviation Against Stock Market Trend Forecast
Recession Self Fulfilling Prophecy
Next Stocks Bear Market How Bad Could it Get?
AI Stocks Portfolio Current State
Buying the Dip
Elon's Butt Must Hurt
Stocks Bull Market End Game Strategy in Brief
PSYCHOLOGY FOR SUCCESSFUL BEAR MARKET INVESTING!
Bull / Bear Strategy To Do List
The During the last legs of the bull market
During the bear market
Road Maps and Ongoing Analysis
Post bear market
FX Impact - Sterling Bear Market Hedging
AI Tech stocks During a BEAR MARKET
Draw downs from 2021 highs to lows 2022 lows
Best and Worst Stocks to Hold During the Nest Bear Market
Agent Orange Stock Market / Financial System Doomsday Scenario
Stocks, Crypto and Housing Market Waiting for Trump to Shut His Mouth!
Contents
State of the Stocks Bull Market
It's the 1990's All Over Again!
Stock Market Deviation Against Trend Forecast
When Will US Interest Rates Next Be Cut?
Nvidia DeepSeek FEAR and PANIC
Nvidia Earnings Blast Off?
AI Megatrend
Tesla is Toast!
AI Stocks Portfolio
Bear Market Strategy
FEAR RISING PRICES
UK House Prices
US Home Builders
US House Prices Momentum
US House Prices
Bitcoin Trend Forecast
Pensions Lump Sum Take it Or Leave it?
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By Nadeem Walayat
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Nadeem Walayat has over 35 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.
Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk
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