Tuesday, October 26, 2021
Stock Market New Intermediate uptrend / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX Long-term trend: The 4540 projection which had been in effect since the March 2020 low has now been reached but appears to have been only an intermediate target. Higher levels should now be reached before an important top is struck.
SPX Intermediate trend: An intermediate correction has ended and given way to another intermediate uptrend.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. They are important adjuncts to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which determine longer market trends.
Monday, October 25, 2021
Investing in Crypto Currencies With Both Eyes WIDE OPEN! / Currencies / cryptocurrency
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Firstly, crypto's are VERY HIGH RISK, the crypto bugs constantly talk about how manipulated fiat, stocks and precious metals are hence they seek their financial freedom in decentralised crypto currencies. However in my opinion crypto currencies are probably the most manipulated markets of the lot where huge amounts of coins reside in whale wallets that could be dumped onto the markets at any time. Then there are the inflation rates, crypto coin printing on an epic scale that would even make the Fed's Powell blush where comparatively low prices against all time highs can easily fool unsuspecting crypto investors into buying garbage with masked inflation rates in excess of over 100% that thus can not sustain bull runs to capitalise on until the inflation rates moderate to under 10%, such as that of Filecoin where given the plethora of pump content out there one is hard pressed to determine the true inflation rate that apparently is currently running at 160% against that of say Bitcoin's inflation rate of about 1.6%.
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Monday, October 25, 2021
Is Bitcoin a Better Inflation Hedge Than Gold? / Currencies / Bitcoin
By: MoneyMetals
Gold and silver markets continue to gather upside momentum as inflation pressures spread throughout the economy.
Metals markets may be starting to reflect broader inflation trends that are manifesting in higher prices for almost everything. These price increases faced by businesses and consumers are showing no signs of letting up, despite the Federal Reserve line that they are “transitory.”
Billionaire hedge fund manager Paul Tudor Jones weighed in on the inflation threat during an appearance on CNBC this week.
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Monday, October 25, 2021
S&P 500 Stirs the Gold Pot / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: P_Radomski_CFA
With the S&P 500 back at its all-time highs, gold stopped lagging behind. However, how long can this unsustainable growth last?
The FOMO Rally
While the S&P 500 has demonstrated a resounding ability to shake off bad news, an epic divergence has developed between positioning and economic expectations. And while ‘fear of missing out’ (FOMO) keeps sentiment near the high-end of its range, Q3 DP growth is projected near the low-end of its range.
For example, while the Atlanta Fed’s third-quarter GDP growth estimate was north of 5% in early September, the bank reduced the estimate to 1.3% on Oct. 5. Moreover, with the outlook even worse now, the Atlanta Fed cut its Q3 GDP growth estimate to 0.5% on Oct. 19.
Monday, October 25, 2021
Stock Market Against Bond Market Odds / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Monica_Kingsley
Such was the S&P 500 correction, how did you like it? The whiff of risk-off that I was looking for yesterday, was a very shallow one in stocks, and much deeper in real assets. What‘s remarkable about the stock market upswing, is that it was led by tech while value barely clung to its opening values – and yields rose yet again. But the dynamic is supposed to work the other way – even financials felt the pinch, but at least real estate rose.
Another characteristic worth noting is that the dollar increased yesterday too, and stocks didn‘t mind. The VIX closed almost at 15, which is its lowest value since the beginning of Jul. S&P 500 indeed didn‘t hesitate at 4,520, and broke above similarly to the prior turning point (that wasn‘t) at 4,420. I‘m letting the open long S&P 500 profits run as rising yields aren‘t yet a problem for stocks, and inflation isn‘t still strong enough to break the bulls‘ back – but inflation expectations keep rising, and that‘s a factor once again underpinning precious metals.
When a brief risk-off moment arrives though, commodities are to feel the pinch, and that‘s true also about silver as opposed to gold. Indeed yesterday, the yellow metal did much better than the white one. Copper corrected with a delay to the fresh LME trading measures, and quite profoundly given that the London stockpile represents only a day‘s worth of China factory copper consumption. The dust in the red metal hasn‘t yet settled, but black gold recovered smartly from the steep intraday drop to $81, dealing open oil profits – and the selling in oil stocks looks to be overdone on a daily basis. Finally, the Bitcoin setback I was looking for, happened, but doesn‘t spell the end of the crypto run – more cypto gains to enjoy.
Sunday, October 24, 2021
Inflation Consequences for the Stock Market, FED Balance Sheet / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Here's another indicator to pile on top of a mountain of indicators that I have been covering over the past few months all flashing RED . The S&P real terms dividend yield is now LESS than at the dot com bubble peak! In fact one would need to go back to the depths of the early 1980s' inflationary depression to reach such poor returns.
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Sunday, October 24, 2021
To Be or Not to Be: How the Evergrande Crisis Can Affect Gold Price / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Evergrande is on the brink of bankruptcy. Will gold prices collapse together with the real estate developer or benefit from its default?Generals are always prepared to fight the last war, while economists are always prepared to fight the last recession. But what if the next economic crisis doesn’t start in the US financial sector, but in China’s real estate?
Naturally, I refer to Evergrande, a Chinese developer with total liabilities of more than $300 billion — around 2% of China’s GDP! A default of one of China’s largest and most indebted companies could entail significant repercussions for the global economy.
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Sunday, October 24, 2021
During a Market Mania, "no prudent professional is perceived to add value" / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: EWI
"I don't want to hear about it."
That's the general response from many new retail investors here in 2021 when a veteran stock market observer expresses any hint of caution about the stock market.
This lack of respect for sober reflections about the market has been exhibited before.
Indeed, as far back as 1997, in a Special Report titled "Bulls, Bears and Manias," The Elliott Wave Theorist, a monthly publication which provides analysis of financial markets and cultural trends, said:
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Sunday, October 24, 2021
Stock Market S&P500 Rallies Above $4400 – May Attempt To Advance To $4750~$4800 / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Two main factors are driving the rally in the US stock markets recently; retail traders buying the dip, and Q3:2021 earnings data is starting to shake away the concerns that resulted in the recent market rotation. Combine these activities with the start of the Christmas Rally phase (which usually starts sometime after mid/late-October and carries through into early January), and we have the making of a moderately strong potential price rally in the US major indexes over the next 60+ days.
The $4550 Level Is Critical Resistance For The S&P500
I’m highlighting this ES Daily & Weekly chart pattern, below, to share with you how important it is to see the ES break above the $4550 level – the past high price peak. If the markets are going to start a new rally headed into the 2021 Christmas season, then we need to see the ES continue to rally and break above the $4550 level. It is critically important that price breach the $4550 level and attempt a strong move higher if this bullish momentum persists.
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Saturday, October 23, 2021
Inflation and the Crazy Crypto Markets / Currencies / cryptocurrency
By: Nadeem_Walayat
One of the reasons for investing in crypto's is INFLATION i.e. fiat currency is constantly being devalued whilst many crypto's are limited to print run such as Bitcoin. So whilst I have not bought any Bitcoin to date due to not meeting my price targets so far. However, going forward I will be retaining all mined bitcoin regardless of what happens to the price, roughly I mine about $300 worth of bitcoin per month across 2 desktops.
Meanwhile I have limit orders all over the place attempting to capitalise on the crazy crypto markets. For instance recently Litecoin first dropped to to $100 and then spiked to $300. Which triggered me long at $112 and $118, current price is $185. So I am seeking to capitalise on such highly volatility price moves in both directions due to immature trading platforms and low volume i.e. where Litecoin is concerned I have limit orders to buy at $146 and below with limit orders to sell at $280 and above.
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Saturday, October 23, 2021
Easy PC Upgrades with Motherboard Combos - Overclockers UK Unboxing - MB, Memory and Ryzen 5600x CPU / Personal_Finance / Computing
By: HGR
A motherboard combo, the cost effective way to get your new built built with the added bonus being that the supplier will have pre checked that the parts actually work. Here we unpack a Motherboard combo from Overclockers UK, a 5600x, Aorus B550, 16gb of ram, find out exactly what you get in the box when buying an Motherboard combo.
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Saturday, October 23, 2021
Gold Mining Stocks Q3 2021 / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2021
By: Zeal_LLC
The gold miners’ latest quarterly earnings season will soon get underway, with their full Q3’21 results due out by mid-November. These fundamental reports are invaluable to traders, revealing how companies are actually faring operationally and financially. Despite Fed-tightening fears hammering gold and gold stocks last quarter, the miners are likely to collectively report outstanding results further lowering their valuations.
After a rough stretch technically this past summer, gold-stock sentiment remains down in the dumps. This battered sector has few bulls left, with the vast majority of speculators and investors either ignoring the gold miners or despising them. This overwhelmingly-bearish psychology resulted from a sharp gold-stock selloff between early June to late September. That trying time tested the mettle of contrarian traders.
The gold miners weren’t market pariahs earlier this year. Their leading sector benchmark, the GDX VanEck Gold Miners ETF, powered 28.4% higher in just 2.5 months between early March to mid-May. That solid young upleg was starting to win some converts, with herd sentiment shifting back towards bullish. Unfortunately that promising start was torpedoed by extreme gold-futures selling on Fed-tightening fears.
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Saturday, October 23, 2021
Gold calmly continues cobbling its Handle, Miners lay in wait / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Gary_Tanashian
You see, there is all this noise out there. It comes mostly from inflationists touting gold in the same breath as copper, as oil, and as commodities of all flavors (and aside from gold and to a degree, silver, those flavors are cyclical).
But you also see, gold is counter-cyclical in its best suit. You see on this monthly chart that gold has been forming its Handle to the bullish Cup ever since the inflation trades came to the fore in the summer of 2020. Therefore, you see that those touting gold and inflation together have been wrong for over a year now (and counting).
For those dealing in reality instead of dogma, gold is a candidate to break the Handle at any time. Then it would be off to the target at 3000+ over the course of a year or more. But reality holds another option as well, and that is to finish the Handle making lower.
So why not tune out the perma-pompoms in real time, realize that the thing is bullish, but the trigger is either coming sooner or later? We are doing that more focused work in NFTRH and associated updates every week and will be on the spot when the proper signals engage.
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Friday, October 22, 2021
US Economy Has Been in an Economic Depression Since 2008 / Economics / Economic Depression
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Wait things are even worse than that! You know the US GDP growth rate we are all bombarded with to illustrate the strength or weakness of the US economy, we'll it is just as FAKE as that which vomits out of the likes of the CCP.
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Friday, October 22, 2021
Extreme Ratios Point to Gold and Silver Price Readjustments / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: MoneyMetals
Kicking the can down the road is the new national pastime. Every time the government’s bills come due, officials at the Treasury Department find creative ways of paying them with money they don’t have.
One measure of just how overextended the United States has become financially is the debt to GDP ratio. For most of the country’s history, excluding temporary wartime blips, net general government debt tended to be less than 50% of the economy.
As recently as the early 1970s, debt as a percentage of GDP came in at under 25%. By the early 1980s, it grew to over 30% and fiscal hawks became concerned. In the 1990s, it climbed to over 40% and concern started morphing into alarm.
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Friday, October 22, 2021
Bitcoin $100K or Ethereum $10K—which happens first? / Currencies / Bitcoin
By: Stephen_McBride
What happens first… bitcoin to $100k or Ethereum to $10k?”That’s one of the many questions I get about crypto.
Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) are far and away the two largest cryptos, worth roughly $1.4 trillion combined.
They’ve skyrocketed in value. If you had invested five hundred bucks into both cryptos five years ago, you’d be sitting on $180,000.
Today, bitcoin is roughly $55,000 per coin. Ethereum trades for around $3,500. My research shows both should continue to rise.
But which will hit their big milestone first?
Will bitcoin hit $100K—which is roughly double from here?
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Friday, October 22, 2021
This Isn’t Sci-Fi: How AI Is About To Disrupt This $11 Trillion Industry / Companies / Tech Stocks
By: OilPrice_Com
TikTok’s nearly 700 million users seek medical advice from random individuals and charlatans, since anyone can claim to be a medical expert on this raging social media machine.
Dr. Google is also working overtime, receiving more than one billion healthcare questions every day.
Web MD is recording over one billion searches a year, too.
When you combine this voracious hunger for digital diagnosis, symptom checkers and immediate medical assistance, with a global mobile app market whose revenues had already hit $365 billion in 2018, and are now on track to generate over $935 billion by 2023 ...
You get one of the best bets on disrupting the virtual medicine industry to date. You get Big Tech built by doctors for doctors in the Global Library of Medicine (GLM).
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Thursday, October 21, 2021
Ravencoin RVN About to EXPLODE to NEW HIGHS! Last Chance to Buy Before it goes to the MOON! / Currencies / cryptocurrency
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Ravencoin appears to be on the verge of a major move higher once it breaks above it's 200 day moving average on a closing basis at 0.11 (current price 0.1055). If we are lucky it will break the 100 day lower first before going higher i.e. into 0.065 to 0.078, but at this point that looks like a low probability. RVN looks like its about to go to the MOON! Your last chance to get onboard.
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Thursday, October 21, 2021
Stock Market Animal Spirits Returning / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Monica_Kingsley
S&P 500 prompt recovery confirms my bullish run thesis – above 4,520, and given my Feb announced year end target of 4,700, fresh ATHs are approaching. Get ready though for quite some volatility as the current lull won‘t last indefinitely – I‘m not looking for VIX at 15 to be broken to the downside on a closing basis, and wouldn‘t be surprised by another noticeable correction once the current upswing runs out of steam somewhat above prior ATHs.
So far so good, and the stock market run continues without marked credit markets confirmation as the risk-on turn there isn‘t complete (yet). Treasury yields aren‘t retreating, yet tech is the driver of the S&P 500 upswing while value keeps treading water. Encouragingly, financials do well – it‘s cyclicals‘ time, and the open S&P 500 long position is very solidly profitable already.
Commodities upswing continues, and precious metals (silver leading gold), are in the tow. Less so when it comes to silver, which is inspired by the great copper run. As if indeed silver was sniffing the copper awakening soon – strong copper long profits keep growing too. Crude oil refused to yield much ground, and any timid intraday move down, gets swiftly bought. Similarly cryptos aren‘t looking back.
Thursday, October 21, 2021
Inflation Advances, and So Does Gold — Except That It Doesn’t / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Inflation accelerated again in September, and gold prices (finally!) reacted positively. Bad news: the rally was short-lived.Unfortunately, I was right. One month ago, when commenting on the CPI readings for August, I wrote that inflation “doesn’t have to go away anytime soon” and that the economic developments suggest that “inflation isn’t disappearing just yet.” And here we are, one month later, with inflation accelerating again.
Indeed, the latest BLS report on inflation shows that the CPI rose 0.4% in September after increasing 0.3% in August. The core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, also accelerated to 0.2% in September from 0.1% in the preceding month.
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