Category: Financial Crisis 2021
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Thursday, November 11, 2021
Financial Crisis 2.0 Checklist - China Crisis, Stagflation, Stocks Bubble, Reverse Repo... / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2021
By: Nadeem_Walayat
China's property market is collapsing but the only data we have at present is anecdotal from the property developer canaries in the coal mine which have been under extreme distress for several months, with now dozens defaulting on their debts triggering fire sales of housing stock to raise revenues as they desperately fight to stay alive in the face of impending debt and interest payments, playing their part in the brewing Financial Crisis 2.0.
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Wednesday, November 10, 2021
Financial Crisis 2.0 Checklist - The China Syndrome / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2021
By: Nadeem_Walayat
China's property market is collapsing but the only data we have at present is anecdotal from the property developer canaries in the coal mine which have been under extreme distress for several months, with now dozens defaulting on their debts triggering fire sales of housing stock to raise revenues as they desperately fight to stay alive in the face of impending debt and interest payments, playing their part in the brewing Financial Crisis 2.0.
Financial Crisis 2.0 Checklist
- China housing market in distress - CHECK
- China's economy slowing - CHECK
- US Economy slowing - CHECK
- Brewing STAGFLATION - Slowing economy coupled with rising prices - CHECK
- Black Swan Event - Crisis at the ports - CHECK
- Economic Models busted - Workers refusing to return to work not factored into Economic models - CHECK
- REVERSE REPO MARKET - Banks desperate to swap deposit liabilities for T-bills collateral so as to lower capital requirements which has drained the capital markets of over $1 trillion - CHECK
- STOCK MARKET BUBBLE - Valuations have lost touch with reality - CHECK
- FED TAPERING into a Weakening Economy - Huge Risk of a valuation reset - CHECK
- IMPEMDING DOOM! - The relentless march of the Climate Change Mega-trend where all that the worlds leaders did at COP26 was Blah Blah Blah - CHECK!
Friday, September 24, 2021
Evergrande not a Minsky Moment / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2021
By: Richard_Mills
The selloff in stocks that started last week and continued on Monday has some market observers wondering whether this is a “Minsky Moment”.
This refers to the idea that periods of bullish speculation will eventually lead to a crisis, wherein a sudden decline in optimism causes a spectacular market crash.
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Tuesday, September 21, 2021
Evergrande China's Lehman's Moment, Tip of the Ice Berg in Financial Crisis 2.0 / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2021
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Financial Crisis 2.0 continues to unfold where China's giant property developer Evergrande is the canary in the coal mine, tip of the ice-berg, China's Lehman's moment that looks set to default on $300 billion of debts. Here's what the giant property developers stock price looks like.
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Saturday, September 18, 2021
Why a Financial Markets "Panic" May Be Just Around the Corner / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2021
By: EWI
Here's why global investors should keep a close eye on "sight deposits"
Investors look to an array of indicators in hopes of determining what is next for the financial markets in which they are interested.
Some investors may focus entirely on "technical" indicators such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI), price levels of "support" or "resistance," or say, advancing vs. declining issues, just to name a few. As you probably know, there are many more technical indicators.
Market participants also look at sentiment readings such as mutual fund cash levels, investors' use of leverage, surveys and so on.
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Sunday, August 22, 2021
Repo, Debt and Bond Markets in Financial Crisis 2.0, Michael "Big Short" Burry CRASH is Coming's Track Record / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2021
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This is part 2 of my recent extensive analysis (Part 1) in advance of Financial Crisis 2.0 as a handful of stocks are driving the indices higher, Apple worth $2.3 trillion, Microsoft $2 trillion, Amazon $1.8 trillion, Google 1.8 trillion, Facebook $1 trillion even that over priced pile of poop Tesla came close to being valued at $1 trillion, we are definitely in a bubble, you only need to go onto youtube and watch the to the moon videos of Cathy Wood, literally everything's going to go to the moon because her barely out of puberty Quants decree it to be so. This is clearly a major warning sign of a unsustainable trend when indices are ruled by such a small clique of tech stocks where the greatest similarity is with the dot come bubble in terms of the valuation of stocks that actually produce revenues unlike the largely worthless dot com's of that time.
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Sunday, August 15, 2021
Financial System Liquidity Alarm / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2021
By: Gary_Tanashian
Market liquidity is draining from different vantage points
On Wednesday I made a post that showed the “metallic credit spread” (as coined by Bob Hoye) known as the Gold/Silver ratio (GSR) flipped on its head (to Silver/Gold) to indicate a dangerous situation for the S&P 500, if past is prologue. Here is that post and here is the Tweet that followed…
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Thursday, July 29, 2021
Reverse REPO Market Brewing Financial Crisis Black Swan Danger / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2021
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Financial Crisis 2.0 - You Don't Know How Big of a Bubble Your in until AFTER it BURSTS
A handful of stocks are driving the indices higher, Apple worth $2.3 trillion, Microsoft $2 trillion, Amazon $1.8 trillion, Google 1.8 trillion, Facebook $1 trillion even that over priced pile of poop Tesla came close to being valued at $1 trillion, we are definitely in a bubble, you only need to go onto youtube and watch the to the moon videos of Cathy Wood, literally everything's going to go to the moon because her barely out of puberty Quants decree it to be so. This is clearly a major warning sign of a unsustainable trend when indices are ruled by such a small clique of tech stocks where the greatest similarity is with the dot come bubble in terms of the valuation of stocks that actually produce revenues unlike the largely worthless dot com's of that time.
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Thursday, July 08, 2021
Financial Crisis 2.0 - You Don't Know How Big of a Bubble Your in until AFTER it BURSTS / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2021
By: Nadeem_Walayat
A handful of stocks are driving the indices higher, Apple worth $2.3 trillion, Microsoft $2 trillion, Amazon $1.8 trillion, Google 1.8 trillion, Facebook $1 trillion even that over priced pile of poop Tesla came close to being valued at $1 trillion, we are definitely in a bubble, you only need to go onto youtube and watch the to the moon videos of Cathy Wood, literally everything's going to go to the moon because her barely out of puberty Quants decree it to be so. This is clearly a major warning sign of a unsustainable trend when indices are ruled by such a small clique of tech stocks where the greatest similarity is with the dot come bubble in terms of the valuation of stocks that actually produce revenues unlike the largely worthless dot com's of that time.
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Tuesday, July 06, 2021
You Don't Know How Big of a Bubble Your in until AFTER it BURSTS - Financial Crisis 2.0 / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2021
By: Nadeem_Walayat
I had planned on sending five more biotech stocks to invest and forget for a potential X10 as a continuation of my analysis of 25th May when I covered 5 small cap stocks (4 biotech) (Five More Small Cap Bio and Tech Stocks to Invest for 2021 and Beyond! . However, instead for the past few weeks I have been focused on adding meat to my decision of 17th June 2021 to disinvest from my AI stocks portfolio by reducing it by about 38% to date, having sold 50% of my Google shares, 70% Facebook, 100% Amazon, 100% Nvidia, 100% IBM, and I am contemplating some further selling given that the stocks are over valued and many divergences are taking place in the markets which were giving me flash backs to 2007 (Financial Crisis), 2000 (Dot Com Bubble) and even 1989 (Japanification) as we appear to be in a mix of all 3 bubbles to varying degree, though this does not mean a market top is imminent, it's just that we won't know a top is in until after the fact, anyway I had to de-risk to be able to sleep more comfortably at night and also let my Patrons know what I was doing that this article now seeks to illustrate why as stocks are rising into a high risk environment where complacency and high stakes gambling rules for which we only need to look at the likes of the Cathy Woods funds, Gamestop and the crypto mania bubble that topped in April but still over leveraged vested interests cling onto Bitcoin having bottomed with highly convincing commentary spewed to the masses such as stock to flow, halving's, institutional interest as I covered in my in-depth analysis of 15th June (Bitcoin Bear Market Trend Forecast 2021 and Model Crypto Portfolio Buying Levels). Which to me despite the 50% drop to date, the crypto's are still in a BUBBLE with much further downside to come given the amount of leverage and further exaggerated by the likes Tether the $62 billion ponzi scheme that provides daily liquidity to the crypto markets.
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Thursday, June 03, 2021
Bank run, or run from the banks? / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2021
By: Raymond_Matison
Our nation’s economic conditions have been influenced negatively by a viral lockdown of overall industry such that many of its component parts are in dire financial straits, and a large portion of our total labor force not earning an adequate or any income. This has easily understandable consequences to our overall national economic fabric. For example, as individuals have less or even no earned income - it implies reduced spending on their behalf, which for a consumer–based economy has notably negative consequences. Also when a lockdown occurs people cannot and do not spend as much money – so our consumer driven economy is debilitated.Lower consumer spending also means reduced revenues and profits for manufacturers, distributors and marketers. Lower income for both individuals and companies necessarily means lower taxes collected by local and national governments, usually weakening their capabilities for stimulative fiscal policies.
Lower consumer incomes also mean that credit card, auto and mortgage loan defaults will rise – as indeed they have risen over the last several years and are likely to rise further. The inability of consumers to pay rent will cause owners of rental properties to default on their mortgages. Lower corporate profits suggests that available bank company credit lines will be tightened, and corporate bond defaults necessarily rise. Local, state, and national governments collecting fewer dollars in taxes suggests that their borrowing has to increase, heightening the concern also over such more significant bond defaults. None of this is rocket science. Corroborating this with pithy charts or tables is now unnecessary and unproductive – as such data has been ignored by investors for a decade or more, while the Federal Reserve has been flooding the country with newly created, inflationary money. Individuals, companies, and governments believe that they will always be bailed out by FED money easing policies! But quite the opposite is the truth: debt and FED money printing is now destroying both money and the economy.
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Monday, February 01, 2021
Biden to Preside Over Another Financial Crisis / Politics / Financial Crisis 2021
By: MoneyMetals
Being put in charge of the U.S. government’s finances in 2021 is a bit like being appointed captain of the Titanic in 1912.
More to the point, trying to avert a financial disaster ahead in the current environment is akin to trying to steer a doomed ship away from a deadly iceberg moments before impact.
By the time the Titanic’s crew had realized the impending danger in front of them, it was too late to change course. The massive ship’s momentum ensured a collision would occur.
President Joe Biden’s incoming U.S. Treasury Secretary will be virtually powerless to change the trajectory of government debt growth – a trajectory that history suggests will end in disaster.
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