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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Category: Stock Market 2021

The analysis published under this category are as follows.

Stock-Markets

Monday, May 17, 2021

Stock Market - Should You Be In Cash Right Now? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Sometimes there are very clear advantages to being in an all-cash position and avoiding the risks in the US/Global markets. For example, you should consider cash as a position when the markets begin to execute a broad market consolidation pattern that often results in many weeks or months of sideways, choppy price activity. You should also consider going to cash when a bigger shift in market trends takes place, putting your account at real risk should there be a 20% to 30%+ downside price trend setting up. Moving your assets away from these risks and into cash as early as possible can save thousands of dollars in unwanted – and worse yet totally avoidable – losses.

I know the rules of the game, and how everyone always says “it is better to ride out the trends and buy into the dips in the long run”. Well, we believe there is a better way to approach these bigger market trends that do not include riding out massive downside price trends – watching our wealth melt away as the markets collapse.  We believe the purpose of actively managing your investments/trades should include a “cash position” as an active instrument in your portfolio.  Why?  Because moving your assets away from risks and into a cash position can often create a major advantage for all types of investors.  We will get into more detail about this later.

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Stock-Markets

Sunday, May 16, 2021

Is Stock Market Selling Madness About Over? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Monica_Kingsley

The inflation scare amplified by CPI data has died down yesterday a little. Buying returned into the S&P 500, lifting Nasdaq ever so little too. VIX steeply rejected moving higher, and looks ready to decline today, but the put/call ratio doesn‘t share the optimism as obviously the bearish scenarios, powered by the inflation scare forcing a deflationary outcome in an overleveraged financial system is emboldened by the downfall‘s steepness since Monday and ineffective attempts to coutner it on Tuesday. While one swallow doesn‘t make a summer, the technical picture in the hardest hit tech is gradually improving, worthy of benefit of the doubt while you dance close to the Nasdaq exit door.

Credit markets have crucially improved, with the junk corporate bonds leading the way, and value stocks being soundly bought again. All it took was a decent daily stabilization in long-dated Treasuries coupled with an intraday upswing attempt – no issue that it fizzled out before the close, apparently. The markets are coming to terms with higher inflation, and the commodities hit starting with lumber, stretching to copper, and eventually also oil and soybeans yesterday, would likely recover – first those that hadn‘t been all that overheated.

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, May 12, 2021

Stock Market Extending Phase Two? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Andre_Gratian

Current Position of the Market

SPX Long-term trend:  There is some evidence that we are still in the bull market which started in 2009 and which could continue into the first half of 2021 before major cycles take over and it comes to an end.

SPX Intermediate trend:  Phase two from 3853 does not look complete.

Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. They are important adjuncts to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which determine longer market trends.

Daily market analysis of the short-term trend is reserved for subscribers. If you would like to sign up for a FREE 2-week trial period of daily comments, please let me know at anvi1962@cableone.net

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, May 11, 2021

Stock Market Enters Early Summer Correction Trend Forecast Time Window / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The stock market is now moving into my forecast time window for a correction to begin of approx 10% decline as illustrated by my trend forecast graph.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, May 10, 2021

Stock Market Entering Early Summer Correction Trend Forecast / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The stock market is now moving into my forecast time window for a correction to begin of approx 10% decline as illustrated by my trend forecast graph-

9th Feb 2021 Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast 2021

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Stock-Markets

Friday, May 07, 2021

Stock Market Transportation Index Continues To Grind Higher / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Chris_Vermeulen

If the face of last week’s sideways price action and almost in a rebellious manner today (May 4, 2021), the Transportation Index is moving higher while the US major indexes are all broadly lower.  VIX has shot up over 20 again (over +13% higher) and the NASDAQ is off by more than 300 points (-2.75%) as I write this article.  Yet, the Transportation Index is bucking the trends and trading higher.

What Does It Mean When The Transportation Index Bucks The Major Index Trends?

My team and I have often highlighted the Transportation Index in our past research article. The reason we watch this index so closely is that it tends to lead market trends by at least 30 to 60 days.  In short, the Transportation Index is a measure of future expectations related to freight, shipping, transportation, and the movement of goods and commodities across the US and across the globe. 

When an economy contracts, the Transportation Index will likely follow major indexes lower as future expectations related to economic activity contract.  When a recession or deep price correction happens, the Transportation Index usually moves sharply lower as the sudden shock of an unexpected economic contagion vastly alters future economic expectations.  But generally, the Transportation Index tends to front-run economic expectations.

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Stock-Markets

Friday, May 07, 2021

SPX Stock Market Correction Arriving or Not? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Monica_Kingsley

One more day of upside rejection in S&P 500, in what is now quite a long stretch of prices going mostly sideways. As unsteady as VIX seems at the moment, it doesn‘t flash danger of spiking in this data-light week, and neither does the put/call ratio. As I wrote yesterday about the selling pressure, these tight range days accompanied by 30-ish point corrections is as good as it gets when the Fed still has its foot on the accelerate pedal.

Yes, you can ignore the Kaplan trial baloon (have you checked when he gets to vote on the FOMC?) that spiked the dollar on Friday but didn‘t put all that a solid floor before long-dated Treasuries as seen in their intraday reversal.

Highlighting the key Treasury, inflation and reflation thoughts of yesterday, as these are still here to power stocks higher:

(…) the 10-year yield has been quite well behaved lately, closing at 1.65% only on Friday. The April calm seems to be over, and I‘m looking for the instrument to trade at 1.80% at least at the onset of summer. Then, let‘s see how the September price increases telegraphed by Procter & Gamble influence the offtake – will the price leader be followed by its competitors? That‘s one of the key pieces of the inflation stickiness puzzle – and I think others will follow, and P&G sales and profitability won‘t suffer. The company is on par with Coca Cola when it comes to dividends really.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, May 04, 2021

Stock Market SPX Short-term Correction / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Andre_Gratian

Current Position of the Market

SPX Long-term trend:  There is some evidence that we are still in the bull market which started in 2009 and which could continue into the first half of 2021 before major cycles take over and it comes to an end.

SPX Intermediate trend:  SPX has completed the next phase of its intermediate uptrend and should correct.

Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. They are important adjuncts to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which determine longer market trends.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Stock-Markets

Tuesday, May 04, 2021

Stock Market Investor Psychology: Here are 2 Rare Traits Now on Display / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: EWI

Stock market newcomers revel in their ignorance

In the past year, the stock market has been flooded by inexperienced investors.

Here's a May 12, 2020 CNBC headline:

Young investors pile into stocks, seeing 'generational-buying moment' instead of risk

The message of that headline matches up with the sentiment among many investors that the stock market is at the start of a boom -- not near an end.

Yes, financial history shows that the same psychology has been on display before, i.e., the heralding of "The New Economy" in 2000 -- just as stocks were topping. And, if you want to go all the way back to the 1929 top, the proclamation of "A New Era."

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Stock-Markets

Sunday, May 02, 2021

Stock Market Enough Consolidation Already! / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Monica_Kingsley

Stocks are readying another push higher, and not just on the heels of the still accomodative Fed. The Fed won‘t simply remove the punch bowl, let alone discuss removing it, and will keep repeating the transitory inflation mantra ad nauseam. The ingredients are in place for a continued upswing in stocks and commodities.

Look for nominal yields to continue rising, and my hunch is that won‘t be enough to turn the dollar around. We‘re about to experience continuously rising inflation expectations, rising nominal yields, and declining dollar:

(…) When even Larry Summers starts talking the dangers of an inflationary wave, things are really likely getting serious down the road.

(…) we‘re in the decade of precious metals and commodities super bull runs – and these are well underway. The debasement of fiat currencies against real assets is set to continue, and will accelerate given the unprecedented fiscal and monetary support already and ahead – sorry dollar bulls, the greenback declines are resuming – just look at the yen and yields nodding to the metals upswing.

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Stock-Markets

Friday, April 30, 2021

Stock Market Correction Time Window / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Nadeem_Walayat

One of the most common questions I am often asked is when to sell ones stocks i.e. after a surge in stock prices there is a tendency to fear the gains will evaporate as followed soon after the March 2020 lows, where many investors are focused on trying to Sell the Tops with a view to Buying the Bottoms. Apparently this is how most investors tend to approach investing as it crops up in many communications I have with investors i.e. when should one sell their holdings with a view to buying back after a market correction, which is especially true at the present time given the recent rally in stocks to new highs that my trend forecast for 2021 suggests is now converging towards a time window for a correction.

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Stock-Markets

Friday, April 30, 2021

Stock Market "Fastest Jump Since 2007": How Leveraged Investors are Courting "Doom" / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: EWI

"Our view is that the use of margin to buy stocks is far higher than the NYSE figures indicate"

The stock market uptrend has extended for more than 11 years.

Even so, instead of displaying caution, investors have been borrowing to buy stocks like there's no such thing as a bear market.

For example, consider this chart and commentary from the March Elliott Wave Financial Forecast, a monthly publication which provides analysis of major U.S. financial markets:

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, April 29, 2021

Stock Market Leverage Reaches New All-Time Highs As The Excess Phase Rally Continues / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Chris_Vermeulen

A recent Forbes article highlights the incredible increase in market leverage since the start of the COVID-19 crisis.  There has never been a time in recent history where market leverage has reached these extreme levels.  Additionally, highly leveraged market peaks are typically associated with asset bubbles. 

The easy money policies and global central bank actions have prompted one of the longest easy money market rallies in history.  Historically low interest rates, US Federal Reserve and global central bank asset-buying programs, and extended overnight credit support have prompted some traders and investors to move into a more highly leveraged position expecting the rally to stay endless.  Although, the reality of the global market trends may be starting to cause traders and investors to become a bit unsettled.  Precious Metals, Utilities, and Bonds have all started reacting to perceived fear related to this extended bullish rally trend recently.

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, April 28, 2021

Stocks Bear Market / Crash Indicator / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Current Risk Remains VERY LOW at 5%, Recent highest reading was 15%.

This Indicator is one of the neural nets I am working on as my AI takes baby steps into understanding how to interpret the stock market. It's task is to state the current risk of a bear market or crash being imminent i.e. within the next couple of weeks or so. So an independant technical indicator that acts as a warning to HEDGE stock portfolios ahead of further high probability drops in the market. Where my preferred hedging tool is to go short stock index futures so as to capitalise on any drop without selling any stock holdings, and delivering fresh funds to buy more AI stocks at deep discounts just as I did during March 2020. The last time this indicator triggered a warning was late February 2020, so it is NOT a trading indicator but instead advance warning that a correction already underway could turn into something worse so I need to hedge my stocks portfolio to some degree.

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, April 28, 2021

SPX Indicators Flashing Stock Market Caution / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Andre_Gratian

Current Position of the Market

SPX Long-term trend:  There is some evidence that we are still in the bull market which started in 2009 and which could continue into the first half of 2021 before major cycles take over and it comes to an end.

SPX Intermediate trend:  SPX has completed the next phase of its intermediate uptrend and should correct.

Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. They are important adjuncts to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which determine longer market trends.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Stock-Markets

Monday, April 26, 2021

The Tax Plan to Slay the Stocks Bull Market? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Monica_Kingsley

A day like almost any other – S&P 500 about to take again on the ATHs until the capital gains tax hike proposal came, shaving off 50 points in stocks within an hour. The 4,415 support held though, both before and after the closing bell. Are we ready to shake off the cold water and resume running higher again?

Depends on where you look – stocks have quite some recovering still to do, and it‘s the precious metals and commodities that are performing best today. Both as an index and sectoral collection, the S&P 500 sustained broad damage, concentrated in the tech heavyweights. The volatility spike has been partially repelled but option traders seem expecting another shoe to drop, which attests to us better dampening expectations of a fast return above 4,170.

Look still though how little has changed, as if the tax raising plans haven‘t been around since the infrastructure bill or implicitly even before. It‘s still April, and markets are pricing in not only this select reality, but broader tax increases coming. Yes, they have woken up, and the reflation paradigm is getting an unwelcome companion. This hit won‘t bring down the bull, but will slow it down – and the implications for broader economy will only hasten the pronounced advent of the commodities supercycle (well underway since the corona deflationary crash last year).

As the Chinese say, may you live in interesting times, and I am glad to have caught the April 2020 turnaround reasonably well.  I‘m bringing this up just to say that this isn‘t the time to turn bearish on stocks yet – not in the least. The initial panic is over, real economy keeps recovering (amazing how fast were the reasonably good unemployment claims of yesterday forgotten, right?), inflation expectations aren‘t running progressively hotter, and Treasury yields continue retreating.

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Stock-Markets

Sunday, April 25, 2021

SPX Stock Market Short Squeeze – Here Or Not? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Monica_Kingsley

S&P 500 turned around at the open, and didn‘t look back. Is the selling over, have the markets turned the corner? Buy the dip looks to have won the day, VIX has been beaten back, and corporate credit markets scored strong gains. The benefit of the doubt would go with the bulls as the Russell 2000 and emerging markets joined in the buying spree. Heck, even the option traders turned more complacent again.

The table looks set for brighter days, but it‘s the odd performance in value (the reopening fireworks don‘t seem to go stale ever really) ignoring retreating yields, which the tech heavyweights strangely neither rejoiced. That reminds me of the dog that didn‘t bark story. I‘m thus looking for a daily consolidation of surprisingly easily gained ground without ruling out a weak downswing attempt – but it‘s the upside potential that‘s looking short-term limited here. The daily SPX chart doesn‘t give me confidence yet to declare this correction as not returning next week.

Nominal yields have again retreated a little, and inflation expectations are sending inconclusive messages – but don‘t forget that inflation is what the Fed ultimately wants. It just has to balance that with the Treasuries market not going into a tailspin – for now, mission accomplished, inflation expectations have peaked, move along, nothing to see here.

But the higher commodity prices are sending a clear message to the contrary – look for the PPI readings to be affecting CPI increasingly more. Markets aren‘t waiting for the Fed, and have been transitioning to a higher inflation environment already, even though the Fed sold the transitory talking points quite well – it would indeed be a 2022-3 story when inflation supported by the overheating job market would kick in. That‘s the context decreasing nominal yields should be interpreted in.

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Stock-Markets

Friday, April 23, 2021

This "Lopsided" Stock Market Ratio Is Sending a Clear Signal / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: EWI

Investors always find ways to "rationalize" bearish or bullish stances

For a stock market investor who understands that markets are not random or chaotic but instead patterned, the most important information to know is the price pattern of the market in question.

For an Elliott wave investor, the task is even more defined. As Frost & Prechter's Wall Street classic book, Elliott Wave Principle, says:

The market's progression unfolds in waves. Waves are patterns of directional movement.

So, familiarity with the Elliott wave model for forecasting financial markets is a must.

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Stock-Markets

Friday, April 23, 2021

Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: Watch Out For The “Bear Market” / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Avi_Gilburt

Throughout the years I have been writing on Seeking Alpha, many readers have recognized that we have been quite accurate in our market prognostications, yet they have had a hard time understanding the lens through which I view the markets.

I want to first start by stating that in all the years I have been doing research and analysis into financial markets, I have not found a single form of analysis that provides market context as does Elliott Wave analysis. In fact, it was the reason I was so confident in my expectation that the market would exceed the 4000SPX region even though we were down in the 2200SPX region last year.

So, before I move into my discussion of a “bear market,” I wanted to take a moment to again reference the six-part series I wrote, which explains not only the application of my analysis methodology, but also provides you with the background and theory behind the methodology: https://www.elliottwavetrader.net/market-update/Elliott-Wave-Series-Part-1-201808184848063.html

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, April 22, 2021

Dow Stock Market Dow Trend Forecast Current State / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Nadeem_Walayat

My trend forecast for 2021 as of the 8th of Feb analysis Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast 2021 is for a bull run to Dow 35k punctuated by a summer correction beginning early May as illustrated by the forecast graph for a gain of about 15% on the year.

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