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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Category: Gold and Silver 2021

The analysis published under this category are as follows.

Commodities

Tuesday, September 21, 2021

Silver Futures Market Speculators Crushed Again / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: MoneyMetals

The gold and silver futures markets were designed to increase volatility and discourage physical ownership of precious metals, as revealed in 1970s-era disclosures. The futures markets have also created opportunities for manipulation.

Today, the corruption is on full display for anyone who cares to look at the Wiki-Leaks documents, criminal prosecutions, and the other piles of evidence detailing foul play.

Yet the global price for precious metals is still set by these futures markets. And the trading volume has even grown, even as prices appear increasingly unhinged from fundamental drivers impacting supply and demand for the underlying metals.

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Commodities

Monday, September 20, 2021

Two Huge, Overlooked Drains on Global Silver Supplies / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: MoneyMetals

Precious metals markets got dealt a technical blow after gold and silver sold off on Thursday. Stronger-than-expected economic reports boosted the U.S. Dollar Index, which in turn gave futures traders all the rationale they needed to pound longs with sell orders.

Silver traded down to a slight new 2021 low. Unless prices recover quickly here and carve out a double bottom, stop-loss selling could send spot silver toward lower-range support levels from last year.

Meanwhile, gold is faring relatively better with prices still holding well within this year’s trading range. The gold to silver ratio has risen from a low of just under 64:1 in February to 77:1 as of Thursday’s close. Put another way, silver is now very cheap versus gold.

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Commodities

Monday, September 20, 2021

Gold gets hammered but Copper fails to seize the moment / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: Gary_Tanashian

The Copper/Gold ratio remains at a key decision point

Gold has been clobbered lately but a key metallic macro indicator remains in a long-term congestion zone. If it’s going to be cyclical ‘inflation ON’ we’d expect Cu/Au to break through and do what it has not done since a major inflation trade blew out in 2006-2008, and for the 30yr Treasury yield to eventually catch on and rise at least to the EMA 100 (blue line).

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Commodities

Saturday, September 18, 2021

If Post-1971 Monetary System Is Bad, Why Isn’t Gold Higher? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

August marked the 50th anniversary of Nixon’s abandonment of the gold standard. It caused so many problems for the economy…and gold didn’t take over?

Last month marked the 50th anniversary of President Nixon’s suspension of the convertibility of US dollars into gold. This move broke the last, thin link between world currencies and the yellow metal, effectively ending the ersatz of the gold standard that we still had back then (the official end came in March 1973, marking the start of an era of freely-floating fiat currencies).

I wrote about the collapse of the Bretton Woods in the last edition of the Gold Market Overview, but as it was a truly revolutionary event that paved the way for today’s monetary conditions, it’s worth mentioning the topic again.

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Commodities

Wednesday, September 15, 2021

Eurozone Impact on Gold: The ECB and the Phantom Taper / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

The ECB tapered its asset purchases. Only that it didn’t taper at all. Are you confused? Gold isn’t – it simply doesn’t care.

Tapering has begun. For now, in the Eurozone. This is at least what headlines suggest, as last week, the Governing Council of the European Central Bank held its monetary policy meeting. The European central bankers decided to slow down the pace of their asset purchases:

Based on a joint assessment of financing conditions and the inflation outlook, the Governing Council judges that favourable financing conditions can be maintained with a moderately lower pace of net asset purchases under the pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP) than in the previous two quarters.
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Commodities

Friday, September 10, 2021

Gold Price Back Below $1,800! / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Gold Price Back Below $1,800!

Easy come, easy go. The yellow metal rallied on Friday just to plunge on Tuesday. What’s your next move, Mr. Gold?

Ugh, the recent rally in gold prices was really short-lived. As the chart below shows, the price of gold increased after the publication of disappointing nonfarm payrolls on Friday. However, it declined as soon as on Tuesday, and on Wednesday it slid below $1,800.

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Commodities

Friday, September 10, 2021

Silver Price seen tracking Copper prices higher / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: Richard_Mills

As a keen observer of the silver market, something recently caught my eye concerning the relationship between silver and gold (well-recognized) and silver and copper (less so).

Traditionally, silver prices have tracked gold prices fairly closely, which makes sense given that both function as monetary metals, and they often occur together in mineral deposits. The correlation between gold and silver since 1975 has been 0.8876. The 10-year correlation coefficient is 0.7511. However this year, the correlation has dropped significantly to 0.1959.

I suggest the reason is the fact that both copper and silver are being increasingly demanded in green energy applications. The closer correlation is seen below in the similar-shaped line graphs of 6-month spot silver and copper.

This is something we at AOTH will definitely be watching.

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Commodities

Monday, September 06, 2021

Surging US Home Prices and Gold – What’s the Link? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

US home prices are surging, increasingly raising worries about inflation. Could gold follow houses? If so, why?

Home price growth in the US has accelerated even further, reaching a new record. The S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index rose from 255.3 in May to 260.9 in June, boosting the annual percentage gain from 16.8% to 18.1%, as the chart below shows. That’s the largest jump since 1988 when the series began.
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Commodities

Sunday, September 05, 2021

Bond Conundrum - Boom or Bust for Gold? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Inflation has risen, but bond yields have declined. Such a divergence is strange — beware gold bulls!

Would you like to see something mysterious? If yes, please look at the chart below. It shows the yields on 10-year US Treasuries (red line) and CPI annual inflation rates (blue line) in recent years. As you can see, a huge divergence emerged this year: while inflation surged above 5%, nominal bond yields declined from 1.6% to 1.3%.
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Commodities

Thursday, September 02, 2021

When Will It Be Time to Sell Precious Metals? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: MoneyMetals

Clients often ask when they should sell precious metals. We usually suggest one basic rule around the timing. After that, the decision to sell will depend upon whether your reasons for holding gold and silver have changed.

The basic rule is to avoid selling based on impulse. Humans are emotional creatures and studies show most of us make poor choices when it comes to timing. If you are making a snap decision to sell (or buy) based upon a surge of either fear or greed, odds are you will regret it.

The trick to avoiding an emotional decision about when to sell is to understand why you bought precious metals in the first place and stick to your guns.

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Commodities

Thursday, September 02, 2021

Facing down our investment fears, Courage comes from a strategy you can genuinely believe in / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: Michael_J_Kosares

“Gold shone with the placid certainty of received tradition. Honored through the ages, the standard of wealth, the original money, the safe haven. The value of gold was axiomatic. This view depends on a concept of gold as unchanging and unchanged—nature’s hard asset.” – Matthew Hart, Vanity Fair magazine

Facing down our investment fears
Courage comes from a strategy you can genuinely believe in

“As markets shake off their summer slumbers,” writes London-based analyst Bill Blain, “what should we be worrying about? Lots..! From real vs transitory inflation arguments, the long-term economic consequences of Covid, the future for Central Banking unable to unravel its Gordian knot of monetary experimentation, and the prospects for rising political instability in the US and Europe.”

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Commodities

Thursday, August 26, 2021

Gold Price GameStop Stock Connection? It's an Emotions Game / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: P_Radomski_CFA

There are many factors affecting gold prices on a daily basis, but… how can GameStop stock be one of them?

Given today’s pre-market slide in gold, it seems that the triangle-vertex-based turning point worked once again. Declines are likely next.

In yesterday’s analysis, I explained why the situation remains very similar to what happened in 2013, and that remains up-to-date. On top of that, two interesting things happened yesterday: one quite obvious and one less obvious.

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Commodities

Tuesday, August 24, 2021

Gold Happy 50th Anniversary / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: Michael_Pento

Friday the 13th of August 1971 was a very important date in U.S. history. It was the date that set the table for the beginning of the end of the USD's world reserve currency status. And, greatly expedited the road to perdition for the dollar's purchasing power.

That means this past Friday was the 50-year anniversary of President Nixon's absolute termination of the dollar's ability to be redeemed for gold. Therefore, I thought it would be a good idea to review gold's performance since that time against some popular investments—especially since the MSFM took this same opportunity to impugn this most precious of metals—as they are always prone to do. And, to also once again explain what really drives the gold market.
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Commodities

Tuesday, August 24, 2021

USDX Resurgence: Gold and Silver Don’t Let It Catch You Flat-Footed! / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: P_Radomski_CFA

With its negative correlation to the metals, the USDX rally weighed heavily on gold, silver and stocks. Stop and think: what would be if it continued?

While the overwhelming majority of investors entered 2021 with a bearish outlook for the U.S. dollar, our optimism has proved quite prescient. The USDX bottomed at the beginning of the year. With the USD Index hitting a new 2021 high last week – combined with the EUR/USD, the GDX ETF, the GDXJ ETF, and the price of silver (in terms of the closing prices) hitting new 2021 lows – the ‘pain trade’ has caught many market participants flat-footed. Even silver stocks (the SIL ETF) closed at new yearly lows.

Moreover, after the USD Index surged above the neckline of its inverse (bullish) head & shoulders pattern and confirmed the breakout above its cup and handle pattern, the combination of new daily and weekly highs is quite a bullish cocktail. Given all that, even if a short-term pullback materializes, the USDX remains poised to challenge ~97.5 - 98 over the medium term — perhaps even over the short term (next several weeks).

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Commodities

Sunday, August 22, 2021

Gold Price and the ‘Taper Tantrum’ / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: Richard_Mills

Gold prices are slipping as talk of a “taper tantrum” has investors thinking that the US Federal Reserve’s bond-buying program could be scaled back.

Over the last three days spot gold has dropped $18, peak to trough, on news of US jobless claims falling sharply to 348,000, and the US dollar scaling over a nine-month peak. The dollar’s rise makes gold expensive for holders of other currencies and therefore dents demand for the precious metal.

Good job news indicative of a potential taper and interest rate increase was also responsible for a gold take-down on Aug. 9, when the spot price and gold futures both settled around $1,726, the worst since Mid-April.

A few factors have taken the shine off gold, including a strong US economic recovery with lower unemployment and healthy manufacturing data (the IHS Markit US Manufacturing PMI has risen from 59 in January to 63.4 in July); a climbing US dollar index (from 89 in January to its current 93.56), and most importantly, persistent rumors that the US Federal Reserve will reduce its current $120 billion per month asset purchases designed to flood the financial system with money for lending out, and follow that up with a rise in interest rates.

Because gold does not offer a yield, any suggestion of raising rates makes it less attractive to investors looking for interest on their investments. And because gold is a hedge against inflation, winding down the Fed’s balance sheet (a tally of asset purchases) also dents gold’s appeal because there is less chance of rising inflation caused by a continuation of “quantitative easing”.

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Commodities

Friday, August 20, 2021

Why Silver’s Breakout Into a Major New Upleg Is Likely Soon / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: The_Gold_Report

Technical analyst Clive Maund charts silver and explains why he believes the metal is in the “perfect” buy spot.

Silver is now regarded as the best value hard asset around, and it really doesn’t matter in the long-term whether J. P. Morgan and the other banks try to suppress the price or not. Like gold, it has intrinsic value and, in the situation of high inflation that we are moving into and that has already started, when most asset prices are surging it is illogical to think that silver won’t do likewise.

If they insist on trying to sit on it, all that will happen is that the physical market will break completely from the paper market and they will be increasingly perceived as absurd. We should therefore take advantage of its current relatively very low price to accumulate silver investments across the board.

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Commodities

Thursday, August 19, 2021

Gold Rallies on Softening Inflation. What’s Going On? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Inflation softened slightly in July and gold prices rose, but the bullish joy may be premature. How should we respond?

Inflation eased a bit in July, but it remained disturbingly high. According to the latest BLS report on inflation, the CPI increased 0.5% in July after rising 0.9% in June. The core CPI, which excludes food and energy, also softened, as it rose 0.3% in July after increasing 0.9% in June. The deceleration was mainly caused by a much smaller advance in the index for used cars, which increased only 0.2% (it was 10.5% in June).

However, on an annual basis, inflation practically stayed unchanged since June, as the chart below shows. The overall index surged 5.4% for the second month in a row (on a seasonally unadjusted basis), while the core CPI soared 4.3%, following a 4.5% jump in the previous month.
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Commodities

Wednesday, August 18, 2021

When Gold Price Rises, Will Bitcoin Fall? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: P_Radomski_CFA

What do the portents say? Well, we’ve been looking for connections between gold and bitcoin, and we see a chance to fatten the coffers. Read on.

But first, let’s talk about gold and the miners. Yesterday’s session provided us with a perfect confirmation of the bearish case in the precious metals sector for the short term.

The reason is that what happened was bearish in two ways:

  1. Nothing happened in gold
  2. Daily declines in mining stocks
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Commodities

Saturday, August 14, 2021

Nonfarm Payrolls Crushed Gold Like a Sandcastle / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

The US economy added almost 1 million jobs in July, building solid ground for tapering. Meanwhile, the PMs’ sandy foundations crumbled spectacularly.

Another blow to gold! July’s nonfarm payrolls came in strong. As the chart below shows, the US labor market added 943,000 jobs last month, following 938,000 additions in June (after an upward revision). More than one-third of all gains occurred in leisure and hospitality, reflecting the economy’s reopening after the Great Lockdown.

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Commodities

Friday, August 13, 2021

Gold Miners: Celebration Time / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: P_Radomski_CFA

Another day, another decline in junior miners – and another increase in profits from short positions in them. Shouldn’t we expect a rebound though?

Well, no. The rebound already happened in late July and early August, and what we see now is the trend being resumed. Consequently, even if it wasn’t for all the long-term analogies to the 2012-2013 declines in gold and gold stocks (HUI Index), one should expect the current short-term decline to be significantly bigger than the counter-trend upswing which ended earlier this month. At this time, the move lower is just somewhat bigger than the preceding rally. Thus, it’s not excessive and can easily continue.

However, let’s keep in mind that periods of very high volatility usually need to be followed by periods of relatively low volatility. That’s when investors verify if the “new reality” – the price levels after the decline – are justified or not. If the market votes “no”, we get huge rebounds and breakdowns’ invalidations. So far this week, the markets have been voting “yes”.

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