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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Stock-Markets

Monday, October 11, 2021

Stock Market Wall of Worry Meets NFPs / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Monica_Kingsley

S&P 500 reached my target, and then folded like a cheap suit – into an overnight correction, without attempting to overcome 4,420. As much as the prior advance was broad based, so was the retreat. Tech, value, credit markets – but the decline wasn‘t sold into heavily, and that means the bulls can recover. Still, sizable long profits had been taken overnight automatically, as neither the buyers nor the sellers got anywhere.

The non-farm payrolls thesis goes like this – unless the figure is truly disappointing, the Fed would have to execute on the practically promised Nov taper announcement. Treasury yields aren‘t though buying it, and have ventured higher on their own already, just as inflation expectations did. The debt ceiling has turned into a drama that wasn‘t as the can was kicked down the road into early Dec. The dollar didn‘t react much to the wrangling, but the selling will soon revisit the world reserve currency that is taking its time.

Commodities aren‘t budging, and cryptos continue appreciating while precious metals see encouraging, yet intermittent signs of life that would be delivered through monetary stance reevaluation (that equals no taking the foot off the gas pedal). More follow through is needed in gold and silver, and the white metal should lead the upswing. Copper did confirm it on a daily basis yesterday, but the red metal remains still internally weak – unlike oil that didn‘t even properly pierce the $75 level.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, October 11, 2021

Stock Market Intermediate Correction Continues / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Andre_Gratian

Current Position of the Market

SPX Long-term trend:  The 4540 projection which had been in effect since the March 2020 low has now been reached, but it is too early to call for an end to the bull market which started in March 2009.

SPX Intermediate trend:  An intermediate correction has started.  Let’s see if it evolves into something more serious.

Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. They are important adjuncts to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which determine longer market trends.

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Stock-Markets

Sunday, October 10, 2021

China / US Stock Markets Divergence / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Nadeem_Walayat

After having tracked each another quite closely since the pandemic low, Chinese stocks started to diverge during March 2021. The mania infected investors in US markets look to strong US GDP growth of +6.3% and strong earnings growth of 49% as reasons to ignore the lofty price earnings multiples, crazy valuations for trillion dollar corporations and even more for the mid cap tech stocks that are the darlings of the likes of ARK Invest, trading on bubble valuations that are literally straight out of the dot com bubble era where just as was the case then many don't even make a profit and a large percentage of which never will!

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Politics

Sunday, October 10, 2021

Can US Save Taiwan From China? Taiwan Strait Naval Battle - PLA vs 7th Fleet War Game Simulation / Politics / China US Conflict

By: N_Walayat

China over the past week has been ramping up it's incursions into Taiwanese air space culminating with Emperor Xi Jinping reiterating that Taiwan is a province of China and will reunify with the mainland either by peaceful means or by force. Whilst recently the US deployed 3 carrier groups accompanied by Britain's sole aircraft carrier near Taiwan though not in the Straits.

This war game simulation pits the Chinese PLA Navy against the US 7th Fleet that comprises 70 war ships including 2 air craft carriers, also deployed is a third carrier group with the objective of deterring the Chinese Navy from attacking Taiwan.

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Commodities

Sunday, October 10, 2021

Gold Price Outlook: The Inflation Chasm Between Europe and the US / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: P_Radomski_CFA

With inflation more than two times lower in Europe than in the US, the divergence between the economic zones deepens day by day. How might it impact gold?

QE Infinity

While I’ve warned on several occasions that the Fed and the ECB are worlds apart, the latter now wants to provide more QE once it concludes QE. To explain, with the ECB’s PEPP program set to expire at the end of March 2022, the central bank is increasingly worried about a bond market sell-off. And with sluggish Eurozone growth, exorbitant sovereign debt and a lack of fiscal impulse increasing the ECB’s anxiety, officials are studying “alternatives” to suppress interest rates in the Eurozone’s most debt-ridden countries.

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Housing-Market

Sunday, October 10, 2021

US Real Estate ETFs React To Rising Housing Market Mortgage Interest Rates / Housing-Market / US Housing

By: Nadeem_Walayat

As the Real Estate market shifts away from super-low interest rates and skyrocketing home prices throughout the COVID-19 crisis, we are starting to see the Real Estate ETFs weaken in trend and start to move lower.  The recent rising Mortgage Rates will likely continue to weaken sales trends and push home prices a bit lower over the next few months.  The Real Estate ETF, IYR, is already reflecting a roughly 10% decline in valuation since early September 2021.

In the first part of this research article, I shared a historical chart of the US Average Mortgage rate and some data suggesting the average US consumer is somewhat bound to certain home price constraints based on Average Income.  Typically, mortgage payments should stay below 50% of the borrower’s total take-home income.  Depending on the borrower and the home price, many US borrowers may already be priced out of the market – even with 3.25% interest rates.

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Politics

Saturday, October 09, 2021

US China War over Taiwan Simulation 2021, Invasion Forecast - Who Will Win? / Politics / China US Conflict

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The War with China Mega-trend. If you have been following my analysis over the past 5 years then you will know that I expect a war with China is being inevitable with many flashpoint's for an hot war likely culminating in the nuking of the spratly Islands in the South China Sea.

This simulation covers what is most probable outcome if China launched an all out assault to seize Taiwan and the US chose to intervened with determined force i.e. its 7th Fleet comprising 2 air craft carriers and about 70 ships to deter such an attack.

So who would win such an engagement of largely naval forces on an epic scale?

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Interest-Rates

Saturday, October 09, 2021

When Will the Fed Taper? / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: The_Gold_Report

In this review of the quarter, Adrian Day, founder of Adrian Day Asset Management, discusses the Federal Reserve's asset purchases, its talk of tapering them, and what that could mean for the broader markets.

To taper or not to taper, that is the question. So far, the Federal Reserve’s constant talk and threats of an impending taper have performed the job better than actually doing anything. Stocks are flat, gold is down, as are bonds. But markets are beginning to grow weary of the constant threats with no action. When the Fed actually starts to taper, we may see markets turn. It was a poor quarter in most major markets and assets.

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Personal_Finance

Saturday, October 09, 2021

Dancing with Ghouls and Ghosts at Alton Towers Scarefest 2021 / Personal_Finance / Travel & Holidays

By: Anika_Walayat

Prepared to be Scared! Very Sacred! Alton Towers Scarefest is BACK! Post pandemic frights for all you teens and adults and maybe a few brave kids out there! Here Anika jumps straight into the deep end by dancing with the Ghouls and Ghosts of Alton Towers!

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Stock-Markets

Friday, October 08, 2021

Stock Market FOMO Going into Crash Season / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Dear Reader

The stock market is continuing to rally on FOMO fumes with the Dow up 1.5% for August as the market enters the seasonally worst month of the year for stocks, followed by October, and we all know what October's tend to herald, especially for markets that have run well beyond every expectation and value metric that one can think of which is true for a wide spectrum of stocks from our AI tech giants right through to the junk that populates the likes of Cathy Woods ARK Funds, metrics as I covered in recent analysis such as the Reverse REPO market RED FLAG, then we have margin debt soaring to well beyond all previous market highs which actually would be expected in nominal terms given inflation, however Margin debt has also soared to new highs as a percentage of GDP 3.9% vs 3% in 2000. Here's another flashing RED LIGHT that of the market cap of negative earning stocks exceeding that of the dot com bubble, so folks enjoy your FOMO whilst it lasts, I personally have battened down the hatches for the hurricane that's coming our way that will likely blow novice investors out of the water, especially those who are investing on margin!

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Personal_Finance

Friday, October 08, 2021

Scan Computers - Custom Build PC 6 Months Later, Reliability, Issues, Quality of Tech Support Review / Personal_Finance / Computing

By: HGR

Here's what to expect when ordering a custom built PC from Scan Computers UK, where in this video in our series we evaluate how the system has performed over the past 6 months, how reliable is the build, what is the quality of tech support and what to look out for after suing our scan computers 5950x, RTX 3-80, 64gb £3300 monster for over 6 months.

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Commodities

Friday, October 08, 2021

Gold and Silver: Your Financial Main Battle Tanks / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: MoneyMetals

Armored vehicle-enabled soldiers and the designers who build them understand that a main battle tank must balance three critical elements in order to "complete the mission."

This has been true conceptually since the time of David and Goliath, the Three Hundred Spartans at Thermopylae, with Alexander the Greats' elite Silver Shields, and tank battles in four Israeli wars.

As an analogy for those who acquire and hold precious metals, it offers a close fit to their own ability to "complete the financial mission" of asset protection and growth.

First, a main battle tank must have superior firepower, being able to reliably counter and defeat its adversaries on the field of battle.

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Companies

Friday, October 08, 2021

How to handle the “Twin Crises” Evergrande and Debt Ceiling Threatening Stocks / Companies / Tech Stocks

By: Stephen_McBride

It’s the most overused word in finance…

And right now, markets are being tested by two “crises” at once.

You’ve likely noticed these “crises” are dragging down stocks, especially tech stocks. The Nasdaq just had its worst day since March. It’s now lost 6% in the last two weeks.

A 6% dip might not sound all that big… and it’s not. It’s a perfectly normal gyration that happens a few times a year.

But this dip feels worse to many folks, since it’s the first meaningful drop in the Nasdaq since May.

Today, we’ll look at the “twin crises” the media is focused on. And we’ll evaluate if and where you should shift your money in response to them…
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Housing-Market

Friday, October 08, 2021

Why a Peak in US Home Prices May Be Approaching / Housing-Market / US Housing

By: EWI

"Is it a good time to sell a house?"

Some people buy a house solely as an investment.

Others want a better place to live -- perhaps more room for a growing family. The investment part is secondary. However, even people in this category would likely hold off on a purchase if they had an indication that lower home prices were just around the corner.

Well, there is such an "indication."

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Personal_Finance

Friday, October 08, 2021

Alton Towers Scarefest is BACK! Post Pandemic Frights Begin, What it's Like to Enter Scarefest 2021 / Personal_Finance / Travel & Holidays

By: Anika_Walayat

Prepared to be Scared! Very Sacred! Alton Towers Scarefest is BACK! Post pandemic frights for all you teens and adults and maybe a few brave children out there! Here is our first video in our series of what it's like to step foot into Alton Towers Scarefest 2021!

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Personal_Finance

Thursday, October 07, 2021

AJ Bell vs II Interactive Investor - Which Platform is Best for Buying US FAANG Stocks UK Investing / Personal_Finance / Investing 2021

By: Nadeem_Walayat

AJ Bell vs Interactive Investor, which is best for buying US stocks from the UK. This video goes through the pro's and cons of buying FAANG stocks, that's Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Nvidia, and Google, (Netflix is NOT a proper Faang stock!) How much does it cost to buy Facebook shares, which platform is best to trade with in terms of order management and quotes execution. What's the best platform in terms of holding onto ones cash.

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Commodities

Thursday, October 07, 2021

Gold: Evergrande Investors' Savior / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: The_Gold_Report

Sector expert Michael Ballanger links debt and wolf packs in this exploration of the effects that the troubled Chinese company will have on gold.

When I first launched the GGMA Advisoryservice in January 2020, the very first Forecast Issue dealt with the globe's number one ailment, and it was not then, and is not today, related to mankind's physical health but rather its financial health. The word that kept resonating throughout that issue was debt.

If the global financial system was a human body, debt would be the fatty tissue that surrounds and clogs our organs, while recessions would be the fasting that rids the body of type 2 diabetes, obesity and depression. The problem that I identified as early as 2008 was that those that would manage our lives (whether elected or unelected) carry a belief system that holds that the best cure for obesity is a bowl of chicken noodle soup followed by six Big Macs and a big slice of apple pie.

"Debt default in tough times is the economic wolf pack that culls the economy of inefficient businesses and excesses."

In other words, it has been debt that has caused the past two major financial upheavals, and both involved the unprecedented creation of mind-boggling amounts of debt in order to avoid the natural cleansing of debt that occurs during economic downturns.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, October 07, 2021

Here's What Really Sets Interest Rates (Not Central Banks) / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: EWI

See "powerful evidence that the Fed is not in control of interest rates"

Most everyone is familiar with the phrase: "Keep your eye on the ball," which of course means -- focus on what really matters.

Those who seek clues about the direction of interest rates believe the "ball" is their nation's central bank.

For example, in the U.S., Federal Reserve announcements are the subject of countless financial headlines, like this one from Sept. 22 (Reuters):

Fed signals bond-buying taper coming 'soon,' rate hike next year

The assumption in most of these headlines is that the central bank determines the direction of rates.

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Companies

Wednesday, October 06, 2021

CISCO 2020 Dot com Bubble Stock vs 2021 Bubble Tech Stocks Warning Analysis / Companies / Tech Stocks

By: Nadeem_Walayat

CISCO, the backbone of the then fast developing internet, much as Tesla is the backbone of the fast emerging EV and automated vehicles sector, with the likes of Google throwing tens of billions into AI and robotics each year. Everyone owned Cisco, just as everyone owns Google, Amazon, Apple or Facebook stock today.

Back In March 2000 Cisco was trading at a price of $146, on a PE of 120, to the moon, TO THE MOON! Where many were concerned Cisco WAS the Internet, one of the most valuable certification tracks of the time were those by Cisco, where even I was CCNA certified, desperately trying not to get further sucked into the highly costly Cisco certification tracks where CCNA gave way to CCNP to CCIE and beyond, the certifications were mushrooming into more OTT levels than what scientology has! CCNA OTTIV where after decades and several hundreds of thousands of dollars one would become one with the internet, be able to move data packets around with their mind! Other companies soon saw what a money spinner the certification tracks were and so the likes of Microsoft started their own such as Microsoft Office certifications, but I digress.

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Commodities

Wednesday, October 06, 2021

Precious Metals Complex Searching for a Bottom / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: Rambus_Chartology

Lets start with the BPGDM, Gold miners bullish percent chart which has just made a lower low along with the GDX on top. If you recall I was looking for some kind of divergence between the 2 which hasn’t happened yet red arrows on right side of the chart. There is no doubt that the BPGDM is trading down toward the low end of its range between 100 on top and zero on the bottom. It would be nice to see the GDX on top trade back above the 2016 horizontal S&R line at 30.50.

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