Wednesday, November 17, 2021
Sentiment Speaks: This Stock Market Makes Absolutely No Sense / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Avi_Gilburt
People still argue with me about the weight one should give to market sentiment when investing or trading. Yet, when the earnings were announced for AMC this past week, it certainly should make you scratch your head.
AMC stock was just below $8 before Covid hit. When we look at a little closer at today’s company data relative to the pre-Covid era, we realize that AMC has more shares outstanding, more debt, and higher losses post-Covid. Yet, today, the stock is over $40. In the recent earnings report, management even told us that they are not yet at the pre-Covid levels when it comes to their fundamentals. Yet, the stock is 5 times higher.
Many of you would shrug this off to “the madness of crowds.” But, what it highlights is that the only thing that can explain this is market sentiment. So, while many would shrug this stock off as simply being “over-valued,” have you considered what that really means?
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Wednesday, November 17, 2021
Biden Spending to Build Back Stagflation / Economics / Stagflation
By: MoneyMetals
President Joe Biden signed a $1.2 trillion “infrastructure” bill into law on Monday amid growing concerns that his administration’s policies are fueling higher inflation.
Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers, a Democrat, is warning of an economically and politically ruinous inflation problem brewing.
He wrote in a recent Washington Post op-ed that “far too much fiscal stimulus and overly easy monetary policy” will “threaten prosperity and public trust unless clearly acknowledged and addressed.”
That was an apparent swipe at the Biden administration’s pattern of denials and misdirections whenever confronted about inflation.
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Wednesday, November 17, 2021
Meshing Cryptocurrency Wealth Generation With Global Fiat Money Demise / Currencies / cryptocurrency
By: Raymond_Matison
The promise of electronic currencies
A couple of decades ago the internet started to revolutionize society in ways that could not have been predicted. Email systems developed and evolved to become indispensable and ubiquitous. People could sift and classify business data on spreadsheets in order to make smart business decisions faster. Vast libraries of books, data, news and other information from around the globe became increasingly available to anyone interested to read it. Global maps, archived music, and films could be shared, viewed, and listened to by anyone with a computer and access to the internet. Internet shopping became a reality; and just when it seemed that technological innovation might be slowing, all of these services migrated from desk-top computers to smart telephones. And this technology brought with it incredible amounts of new wealth.
Now continuing technological development is promising additional decades of innovation, that among other things will change ways in which we conduct financial payments, remit money across borders, invest in stocks, bonds and real estate, and control and custody our personal savings. These new technologies can be seen as decentralizing and liberating in the sense that individuals will be their own financial gatekeepers able to function as their own bank, without the need for permission from any trusted third party. This has already, and will continue to create much new wealth over coming years.
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Tuesday, November 16, 2021
Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast Into Mid 2022 / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
This is the fourth and final part of my extensive analysis that maps a stock markets trend forecast into Mid 2022 - Stock Market FOMO Hits September Brick Wall - Dow Trend Forecast Sept 2021 to May 2022
Part 1 - Stock Market FOMO Going into Crash Season
Part 2 - Why Most Stocks May Go Nowhere for the Next 10 Years!
Part 3 - Dow Stock Market Trend Analysis
Contents:
- Stock Market Forecast 2021 Review
- Stock Market AI mega-trend Big Picture
- US Economy and Stock Market Addicted to Deficit Spending
- US Economy Has Been in an Economic Depression Since 2008
- Inflation and the Crazy Crypto Markets
- Inflation Consequences for the Stock Market
- FED Balance Sheet
- Weakening Stock Market Breadth
- Why Most Stocks May Go Nowhere for the Next 10 Years!
- FANG Stocks
- Margin Debt
- Dow Short-term Trend Analysis
- Dow Annual Percent Change
- Dow Long-term Trend Analysis
- ELLIOTT WAVES Analysis
- Stocks and 10 Year Bond Yields
- SEASONAL ANALYSIS
- Short-term Seasonal Trend
- US Presidential Cycle
- Best Time of Year to Invest in Stocks
- 2021 - 2022 Seasonal Investing Pattern
- Formulating a Stock Market Trend Forecast
- Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast Sept 2021 to May 2022 Conclusion
- Investing fundamentals
- IBM Continuing to Revolutionise Computing
- AI Stocks Portfolio Current State
- My Late October Stocks Buying Plan
- HIGH RISK STOCKS - Invest and Forget!
- Afghanistan The Next Chinese Province, Australia Living on Borrowed Time
- CHINA! CHINA! CHINA!
- Evergrande China's Lehman's Moment
- Aukus Ruckus
Tuesday, November 16, 2021
Stock Market Minor Cycle Correcting / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX Long-term trend: The long-term trend continues unimpeded but could be challenged in early 2022.
SPX Intermediate trend: An intermediate correction has ended and given way to another intermediate uptrend which could continue into early 2022.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. They are important adjuncts to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which determine longer market trends.
Tuesday, November 16, 2021
The INFLATION MEGA-TREND - Ripples of Deflation on an Ocean of Inflation! / Economics / Inflation
By: Nadeem_Walayat
So called transitory US inflation surged to 5.4% for September remaining sticky at above 5% with little signs of moderation and thus likely to prompt the Fed to taper in the near future to signal intentions to bring inflation down to 2% in 2 years time as their 'transitory' propaganda smoke screen is wearing thin. Of course real US inflation in is at least double official fake CPI. Whilst the real rate of inflation in the UK is even worse, likely 3 to 4 times official CPI i.e. about 15% to 20%.
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Tuesday, November 16, 2021
Are gold prices really bottoming? That all depends on the indicator / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Donald_W_Dony
Holding gold has largely been about a hedge for inflation, weak US dollar or a store of safety during times of trouble. At present, it is the inflationary pressures that is the main driving force for the yellow metal.
Inflationary pressures are building around the world as the global economy tries to reopen. Consumer prices are sharply rising with the US Inflation rate posting a three-decade high of 6.2% in October and Germany hitting 4.5%, the highest level since 1993.
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Tuesday, November 16, 2021
Gold Stocks technically short-term bullish, but… / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2021
By: Gary_Tanashian
An update of the gold stock bounce
As a TA, I respect charts first and foremost. On occasion that respect has burned me as I’ve missed big profit opportunity or not seen a disaster unfolding that the charts missed. But much more often it helps me profit or saves me from disastrous ends. TA is just one tool in the box. An important one, but it should not stand alone. With the gold stocks especially, the correct macro-fundamentals matter.
Lately, with respect to the HUI Gold Bugs index, TA has helped me (and NFTRH subscribers) manage a low born of over-bearish sentiment at a key long-term support area (230 ), one of three downside targets we’ve had open since the correction began in summer 2020. For management of the correction and its bounces we’ve used various charts of varying detail and time frames. But last week in NFTRH 680 we simplified to the daily view below. With the rally now in full flight it is time to be paying attention to what may come next.
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Tuesday, November 16, 2021
Why Most Stocks May Go Nowhere for the Next 10 Years! / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Here's why PE ratio's matter as the following chart shows the return 10 years forward from the starting average PE i.e if the stock market is trading on an average PE of 27 than can basically be expected to go nowhere for the next 10 years. Whilst the lower the PE the higher the expected return (on average), where the safe zone for investing is at a starting PE of between 10 and 20.
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Tuesday, November 16, 2021
Investing Tips For New Investors / InvestorEducation / Learning to Invest
By: Mark_Adan
1. Know Your Investment Goals
There are several key questions every potential investor should ask themselves before venturing into the industry. Your reasons for investing and how long are two of the key questions you should have an answer to before you can venture into the stock market. Are you looking to grow your wealth, saving for retirement, or hoping for a house deposit? It is only after identifying and defining your investment goals that you’ll be able to determine what stocks to invest in and for how long.
Monday, November 15, 2021
Stock Market Inflation Consequences - S&P Dividend Yield vs CPI / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Valuations
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Here's another indicator to pile on top of a mountain of indicators that I have been covering over the past few months all flashing RED . The S&P real terms dividend yield is now LESS than at the dot com bubble peak! In fact one would need to go back to the depths of the early 1980s' inflationary depression to reach such poor returns.
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Monday, November 15, 2021
Best Real Terms Asset Price Growth Countries for the Next 10 Years / Forecasts / Investing 2021
By: Nadeem_Walayat
What one wants to see is what is likely to happen over the next 10 and years, so after much number crunching here are my tables as a rough guide for which are the best nations in terms of relative strength of asset prices in real terms i.e. housing and stocks and which are the worst over the next 10 and 20 years based on the ageing population metric. However, a single metric even though a very important one is just not enough so I have also included a nations climate change risk profile that is expected to increasingly impact on GDP as well as GDP per capita where the lower the GDP the greater the potential for real terms growth i.e. it is much easier for Nigeria to double the size of their economy per capita than Malaysia. Whilst nations with very low GDP Per capita such as Afghanistan have a huge mountain to climb before they become stable enough for sustained growth spurts.
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Monday, November 15, 2021
Covid Vaccinations - THEY WANT US TO FEAR ROOM 101 / Politics / Coronavirus 2021
By: James_Quinn
“You asked me once, what was in Room 101. I told you that you knew the answer already. Everyone knows it. The thing that is in Room 101 is the worst thing in the world.” – O’Brien – Orwell’s 1984
GreatWritersFranzKafka: George Orwell`s 1984: The Downward Journey by Brian W. Aldiss Fauci pressed over U.S. funding of cruel medical experiments on dogs and puppies; Beagles locked in cages with sand flies, vocal cords removed | National | stardem.com
“’By itself,’ he said, ‘pain is not always enough. There are occasions when a human being will stand out against pain, even to the point of death. But for everyone there is something unendurable — something that cannot be contemplated. Courage and cowardice are not involved.” – O’Brien – Orwell’s 1984
When the story broke about mass murderer Anthony Fauci funding the torturing and killing of puppies in Tunisia, with the picture of the puppies with their heads in cages so they could be eaten alive by hungry sandflies, after having their vocal cords slit (so the poor “experimenters” wouldn’t be subject to the harrowing howls of the dying puppy beagles), my mind immediately jumped to the climactic scene in Orwell’s 1984.
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Monday, November 15, 2021
Inflation and the Crazy Crypto Markets 2021 / Currencies / cryptocurrency
By: Nadeem_Walayat
One of the reasons for investing in crypto's is INFLATION i.e. fiat currency is constantly being devalued whilst many crypto's are limited to print run such as Bitcoin. So whilst I have not bought any Bitcoin to date due to not meeting my price targets so far. However, going forward I will be retaining all mined bitcoin regardless of what happens to the price, roughly I mine about $300 worth of bitcoin per month across 2 desktops.
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Monday, November 15, 2021
Gold’s run shows interest rate hikes not coming soon / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Richard_Mills
Gold continued to rally on Tuesday, as investors and metal traders priced in expectations that central banks will keep interest rates low until late 2022 at the earliest.
At time of writing spot gold and gold futures were both changing hands at about USD$1,833/oz.
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Sunday, November 14, 2021
Gold Price Trend Implications for Silver / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Clearly at times of market panic investors rush to Gold and then eventually once the dust settles soon realise in comparison Silver is cheap and thus plays catchup, usually swinging from cheap to expensive against Gold. So allowing for a delayed reaction there does exist a strong correlation between the Gold price and Silver. In terms of trend both Gold and Silver appear to be correcting their 2020 bull runs so should resolve upwards once the correction ends.
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Sunday, November 14, 2021
Silver Previous Trend Forecast Recap / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Nadeem_Walayat
My last in-depth Silver analysis:
29th Jan 2020 - Silver Price Trend Forecast 2020
Initially I am expecting a very volatile trading range between a low of $16.50 to a high of $19 for the next 3 months or so, following which the Silver price 'should' respond to a Gold price rally and follow the yellow metal higher. The trends not going to be pretty but I expect Silver to trade above $20, and likely reach a peak near $21 later in the year as the forecast graph illustrates.
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Sunday, November 14, 2021
US Economy in Economic Depression Since 2008 / Economics / Economic Depression
By: Nadeem_Walayat
You know the US GDP growth rate we are all bombarded with to illustrate the strength or weakness of the US economy, we'll it is just as FAKE as that which vomits out of the likes of the CCP.
The Fed states US real GDP is currently +12% year on year . Now consider this, what inflation measure do you think the Fed is using to calculate these GDP figures? CPI? WRONG! GDP price deflator which tends to consistently under estimate inflation even against CPI as the following graph illustrates.
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Sunday, November 14, 2021
Inflation to the Moon - Gold Wears a Space Suit! / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Inflation rears its ugly head, surging at the fastest pace since 1990. The yellow metal has finally reacted as befits an inflation hedge: went up.Do you know what ambivalence is? It is a state of having two opposing feelings at the same time –this is exactly how I feel now. Why? Well, the latest BLS report on inflation shows that consumer inflation surged in October, which is something I hate because it lowers the purchasing power of money, deteriorating the financial situation of most people, especially the poorest and the least educated who don’t know how to protect against rising prices.
On the other hand, I feel satisfaction, as it turned out that I was right in claiming that high inflation would be more persistent than the pundits claimed. After the September report on inflation, I wrote: “I’m afraid that consumer inflation could increase even further in the near future”. Sieron vs. Powell: 1:0!
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Sunday, November 14, 2021
Focus on Stock Market Real Gains / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Monica_Kingsley
S&P 500 declined, and not enough buyers arrived in my view. Still, we‘re likely to see a brief pause in selling, and that‘s giving the bulls a chance. Credit markets were a bit too beaten down by the troubled 30-year Treasury auction and Evergrande moving into the spotlight somewhat again. VIX managed another upswing, and doesn‘t point to the S&P 500 having gotten to an excessively bearish positioning just yet.
I think some treading the water before stocks make up their mind, is most likely next. The downswing doesn‘t appear to be totally over, but we have arguably seen the greater part of it already. Tech isn‘t yet stabilized, but the increasing volume spells a pause in selling. I‘m still looking for clues to the bond markets.
And it‘s clear that not even higher rates can sink the precious metals run – neither the late day rush to the dollar had that power. Miners continue behaving, and their daily black candle doesn‘t scare me – the realization of inflation not having peaked, and being as stubborn as I had been pounding the table since eternity, is working its magic:
(…) inflation expectations are moving higher – the more you shorten the maturity, the higher they go, let alone RINF, their key ETF. Markets will be proven very wrong about the transitory inflation complacency – inflation rates aren‘t going to decline if you just leave them alone. And taper coupled with rate hikes hesitancy won‘t do the trick either.
S&P 500 is still primed to go higher – the only question is the shape of the current consolidation. Liquidity is still ample, the banking sector is strong, and the Russell 2000 isn‘t really retreating.
Precious metals are consolidating – it‘s almost a pre-CPI ritual, but under the surface, the pressure to go higher keeps building. I‘m looking for a strong Dec in gold and silver, with unyielding oil and copper gradually waking up. Cryptos aren‘t taking prisoners either.
Crude oil is well bid in the $78 till $80 zone, and would overcome $85 – we aren‘t looking at a reversal, but at temporary upside rejection. Likewise copper would kick in with vengeance, and the shallow crypto consolidations are barely worth mentioning at all.