Category: Seasonal Trends
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Sunday, March 31, 2024
S&P Stock Market Correlating Seasonal Swings / Stock-Markets / Seasonal Trends
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Correlating Seasonal Swings
Not satisfied with just seasonal swings I've continued to evolve my near term seasonal swings analysis by comparing the year on year change of the past 5 years which resolves in the following recency bias pattern. Which is very similar to the above monthly seasonal analysis and only really differs to last years analysis in terms of the correction during May and June.
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Sunday, March 31, 2024
S&P SEASONAL ANALYSIS / Stock-Markets / Seasonal Trends
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The seasonal pattern suggests after a pause in Feb, higher into late April, then correct from early May into late June followed by a brief rally into late July /. Early August before a deep correction into Mid October, resolving in a sharp reversal to end October higher, which would set the scene for a bull run into the end of the year.
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Saturday, December 17, 2022
Stock Market Correlating Seasonal Swings Analysis / Stock-Markets / Seasonal Trends
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Not satisfied with seasonal swings I've continued last years near term years seasonal analysis by comparing the year on year change which suggests that the market IS at BOTTOM and thus due a rally into Mid October for a higher low retest into early November, though October should end higher than where it began, where an early November low sets the scene for a powerful rally into at at least Christmas, 2023 bull into September, down into October start.
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Friday, December 16, 2022
Stock Market SEASONAL ANALYSIS / Stock-Markets / Seasonal Trends
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The seasonal pattern suggests after a pause in Feb, higher into late April, then correct from early May into late June followed by a volatile summer terminating in a swing low during September that should set the scene for a bull run into the Christmas Holidays with of course intra month volatility during October that resolve to the upside just as the perma-bears are crowing at their loudest that the end is neigh.
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Wednesday, November 10, 2021
Stock Market Long and Short-term Seasonal Trends / Stock-Markets / Seasonal Trends
By: Nadeem_Walayat
SEASONAL ANALYSIS
The seasonal pattern suggests after a pause in Feb, higher into late April, then correct from early May into late June followed by a volatile summer terminating in a swing low during September that should set the scene for a bull run into the Christmas Holidays with of course intra month volatility during October that tends to resolve to the upside just as the perma-bears are crowing at their loudest that the end is neigh.
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Saturday, April 06, 2019
Stock Market DOW Seasonal Trend Analysis - Video / Stock-Markets / Seasonal Trends
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This is the eigth analysis in a series of videos that concludes in a detailed trend forecast for the Stock Market Dow Stocks Index covering to September 2019.
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Wednesday, February 03, 2016
Stock Market Seasonality Is Out of Season / Stock-Markets / Seasonal Trends
By: Chris_Vermeulen
A “rally” attempt is underway. Stocks are continuing to rebound and all is well with the World? Or is it? With each passing day, the United States plummets deeper and deeper into a “black hole” of debt, of which it will be almost impossible to repay. At the time, of this writing the national debt is $18,939,663,109,937!
To put this into perspective, the national debt is so bad that if every citizen (including children) were to help pay it off, each one of us would have to contribute $58,652.00.
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Friday, March 20, 2015
Why Stock Market Seasonality May Be Critical in 2015 / Stock-Markets / Seasonal Trends
By: Sy_Harding
With its FOMC statement, the Fed provided the market with what it wanted to hear.
They removed the ‘patience’ phrase as expected, but replaced it with a similar assurance that there is no set timetable for rate hikes, that it will continue to be in no hurry. “The Committee anticipates that it will be appropriate to raise the target range for the federal funds rate when it has seen further improvement in the labor market and is reasonably confident that inflation will move back to its 2 percent objective over the medium term.”
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Saturday, January 03, 2015
Seasonal Sweet Spot for Small Stocks? / Stock-Markets / Seasonal Trends
By: Sy_Harding
Studies show that one of the most persistent patterns investors follow is
‘chasing performance’. It’s most prevalent at this time of year. Investors shop for next year’s winners from the lists of the best performing stocks or mutual funds of the previous year. They switch from the successful investment strategy they have been following to one that out-performed it over the previous period. Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, June 14, 2014
Sell in May - Stock Market Seasonal Trading Myth Busters / Stock-Markets / Seasonal Trends
By: Investment_U
Whatever happened to the old seasonality adage “Sell in May, go away”?
That’s what some seasonal investors do, with the idea that the summer months tend to be weak for the stock market.
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Tuesday, March 04, 2014
Stock Market and U.S. Mid-Term Election Years / Stock-Markets / Seasonal Trends
By: Ed_Carlson
Mid-term election years are typically poor performers for most of the year until finding a bottom in the fall and beginning a rally which lasts well into the following pre-election year.
The traditional approach to seasonality during a mid-term election year (chart) shows the final high (prior to the long period of under-performance) in April.
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Wednesday, May 08, 2013
Stock Market Sell in May… Please Go Away / Stock-Markets / Seasonal Trends
By: Investment_U
Joe Martinson writes: I firmly believe blindly jumping in and out of the market is a fool’s game. That’s why I dread the annual flood of articles preaching the virtues of “Sell in May and Go Away.”
I hardly have time to shower… let alone sell all of my stock positions. But the experts tell me sitting on my hands each May 1 costs me money.
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Tuesday, May 07, 2013
Stock Market Don't Sell In May! Reasons Why to Extend Your Stay / Stock-Markets / Seasonal Trends
By: Frank_Holmes
During the first week of May every year, the maxim, "Sell in May and Go Away," gets taken out, dusted off and powered up as a reason to sell stocks. The rhyme is more than just a catchy urban legend: June, July, August and September have historically been the weakest months of the year for the S&P 500 Index.
Yet even if seasons trigger certain events, when the snow falls in Minnesota in May, Midwesterners need to throw on their winter gear and roll out snowblowers, not lawnmowers.
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Saturday, April 20, 2013
Ominous Stock Market Warning Signs - Sell in May and Go Away / Stock-Markets / Seasonal Trends
By: Sy_Harding
As the potential Sell in May and Go Away influence approaches, problems for the stock market are stacking up from both the fundamental and technical sides.
On the fundamental side;
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Tuesday, November 27, 2012
It’s the Season to Own Utility Stocks / Companies / Seasonal Trends
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Over the past week I have been keeping my eye on several key sectors and stocks for potentially large end of year rallies to lock in more gains before 2013.
Monday, October 29, 2012
Time To Trade On The Stock Market Halloween Effect / Stock-Markets / Seasonal Trends
By: Regent_Markets
With Halloween just around the corner, investors are entering what has persistently been a highly profitable period for world stock markets. Investment returns on the benchmark S&P 500 have been roughly three times higher in the period between November and April compared to the summer months of May to October.
Tuesday, May 01, 2012
Why Stock Market Investors "Sell in May and Go Away" / Stock-Markets / Seasonal Trends
By: Money_Morning
Jonathan Yates writes:
The time-value-of-money concept forms the basic foundation for all investments.
And like anything having to do with people, there are rhythms to the stock market that are a function of time-- whether it is the time of the trading day or a particular time of year.
One of these seasonal rhythms is so strong it has given birth to its own adage. Every investor knows it.
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Tuesday, May 01, 2012
Stock Market Sell in May and Go Away? Not this Year / Stock-Markets / Seasonal Trends
By: Frank_Holmes
One catchy investing maxim that's popular this time of year is "sell in May and go away," the notion that investors should cash in their investments and take the summer off. Historically, this hasn't been a bad strategy. You can see from this chart that June, July, August and September have been the worst four months of the year for the S&P 500 Index since 1988.
Saturday, March 31, 2012
Stock Market Trend Similarities to the Last Two Aprils / Stock-Markets / Seasonal Trends
By: Sy_Harding
Almost a year ago in this column I pointed out the eerie similarities in April (2011) to conditions the previous April (2010). And sure enough the similarities continued into almost identical 20% market corrections before the bull market resumed.And here we are again this year looking at eerie similarities as March draws to a close, this time to the last two Aprils.
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Saturday, February 11, 2012
Should Stock Market Investors Worry About February’s Reputation? / Stock-Markets / Seasonal Trends
By: Sy_Harding
Most investors are aware of the market’s various seasonal patterns.
In the Four-Year Presidential Cycle the market has a strong tendency to be positive in the last two years of each Presidential term. Within each year it tends to make most of its gains in its annual favorable season between October and May. Shorter term, it tends to be positive in the few days surrounding the end of each month.