Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Sunday, November 22, 2015
Limits to Economic Growth - Challenge and Choices / Economics / Global Economy
By: Nicole_Foss
Nicole Foss: After more than 30 years of exponential growth, gargantuan resource demand and increasingly frenetic consumption, we have now reached, or are reaching, an array of limits to growth. During our long, debt-fuelled boom, we reached out spatially through globalisation to monetise as much global production as possible, in order to facilitate the efficient transfer of wealth from the global periphery to its economic heartland.
We also, through the profligate use of credit and debt, reached forward in time to borrow from the future in order to stage an orgy of consumption in the present. This spectacularly successful modern form of economic imperialism delivered unprecedented wealth concentration, the like of which previous imperial structures could not have dreamed of attaining.
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Sunday, November 22, 2015
Pakistan Stands Strong During Emerging Market Uncertainty / Economics / Pakistan
By: Submissions
Dylan Waller writes: China’s currency devaluation in August created an FX turmoil for a large number of countries in Asia, and with a potential Fed rate hike coming this December, it may be befitting to turn to overlooked areas in Asia to achieve a solid portfolio return. Despite the rapid growth of Pakistan’s economy and its stock exchange, it remains a relegated destination for investment, and a country that Asia based hedge funds consider to be too risky. The Karachi Stock Exchange has had a 1 year return of 13.95%, making it one of the best performing stock markets in Asia. Pakistan’s currency is another bright spot for the country, as it has only had a 4.9% YTD depreciation against the USD. With much of Asia suffering from high FX losses and less superior performing stock markets, Pakistan’s recent performance gives it a prestigious standing in Asia.
Friday, November 20, 2015
The End Of The Economic Recovery, In One Chart / Economics / US Economy
By: John_Rubino
One of the questions on analysts’ minds lately is whether stock prices can keep moving up when corporate sales and profits are falling. But the same can be asked about the overall economy. Why would companies hire more people if they’re selling less stuff? The answer is that they probably won’t. As the chart below — put together by good friend Michael Pollaro — illustrates, business sales and employment have tracked closely since at least the 1990s. When sales have fallen, companies have responded with less hiring and more firing.
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Thursday, November 19, 2015
Japans Sinking Economy - Is Anybody Okay Out There? / Economics / Japan Economy
By: John_Rubino
In normal times, the world’s major economies are a mixed bag. Some are up, some are down, some are placid, some are in crisis. It’s only at the boom/bust extremes that everyone finds themselves in more-or-less the same boat.
This is looking like one of those times — and the boat is sinking. Japan, for instance, is back in recession…
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Thursday, November 19, 2015
The Great Fall Of China Started At Least 4 Years Ago / Economics / China Economy
By: Raul_I_Meijer
Looking through a bunch of numbers and graphs dealing with China recently, it occurred to us that perhaps we, and most others with us, may need to recalibrate our focus on what to emphasize amongst everything we read and hear, if we’re looking to interpret what’s happening in and with the country’s economy.
It was only fair -perhaps even inevitable- that oil would be the first major commodity to dive off a cliff, because oil drives the entire global economy, both as a source of fuel -energy- and as raw material. Oil makes the world go round.
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Wednesday, November 18, 2015
Central Banks Will Not Be Able to Halt Economic Collapse / Economics / Financial Crash
By: Graham_Summers
In 2008, the world experienced the worst economic collapse in 80+ years. This collapse triggered a stock market crash that erased $30 trillion in wealth.
Since that time, collectively Central Banks have cut interest rates over 600 times and have printed over $15 trillion in new money… money that has failed to generate sustained economic growth… money that has set the stage for another stock market crash.
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Wednesday, November 18, 2015
U.S. Inflation Setup to Upset / Economics / Inflation
By: Ned_W_Schmidt
Is U.S. inflation setup to upset the markets? Motivation for considering this question begins with graph to right. Plotted in that chart is the year-to-year percentage change for the median U.S. CPI. That measure is calculated monthly by the diligent elves at Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. Period of time for chart is past ten years.
Tuesday, November 17, 2015
The Gig Economy Is the New Normal / Economics / Employment
By: John_Mauldin
An already-confusing employment environment grew even more complicated this past week. Many readers responded to my “Crime in the Jobs Report” letter with their own stories. Some confirmed what I wrote, while others disputed it. Some of the stories I read from readers who are stuck far from where they want to be in this job market were very moving. I think everyone agrees the labor outlook is uncertain. I sense a lot of nervousness, even from those who have secure jobs that pay well. In today’s letter, I’m going to respond to some of the observations and data that came in this week on employment.
Monday, November 16, 2015
How the Great Depression 2.0 Will Soon Unfold / Economics / Great Depression II
By: Michael_Pento
Those who place their faith in a sustainable economic recovery emanating through government fiat will soon be shocked. Colossal central bank counterfeiting and gargantuan government deficit spending has caused the major averages to climb back towards unchanged on the year. Zero interest rate and negative interest rate policies, along with unprecedented interest rate manipulations, have levitated global stock markets. But still, sustainable and robust GDP growth has been remarkably absent for the past 8 years.
Monday, November 16, 2015
BRICS? No, CRISIS / Economics / Emerging Markets
By: Raymond_Matison
On Monday, October 23, 2015, the Iranian news agency Tasnim cited its Deputy Minister of Economic Development who announced that Iran would seek to become a participant in the BRICS New Development Bank (NDB). The NDB was officially created by the BRICS nations of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa - in July of this year, with an initial capitalization of $100 billion. Iran’s participation would allow it, or any other participating country, to develop closer economic, trade and international policy ties with the BRICS nations, and utilize NDB funds for economic development.
Saturday, November 14, 2015
How Many More U.S. Recession Confirmations Do You Need? / Economics / Recession 2015
By: James_Quinn
Despite the bogus BLS employment report last week (so the Fed could raise rates before the next financial crisis hits), all economic data confirms an economic recession. Corporate profits are falling, and their forecasts for next quarter are worse. Global trade is slowing dramatically. Oil prices and other commodities are plummeting to multi-year lows. Manufacturing and Services surveys are flashing red. China, Japan and European economies continue to suck wind. Layoff announcements by major corporations are up 40% over last year. A global deflationary recession is underway. Only a CNBC bimbo, shill or Ivy League educated economist isn’t bright enough to see it.
Friday, November 13, 2015
Brutal Economic News As The World Rolls Over / Economics / Global Economy
By: John_Rubino
Brutal news is pouring in from pretty much everywhere.
US retail sales are flat and wholesale prices are falling. Big retail chains are missing on earnings and seeing their shares plunge.
Chinese nonperforming loans are soaring while imports, car sales and steel production are way down.
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Friday, November 13, 2015
Deflation and the Devaluation Derby - A Closer Look at All Those New U.S. Jobs / Economics / Deflation
By: EWI
U.S. labor force participation rate is at its lowest level in 38 years
Editor's note: You'll find a text version of the story below the video.
I was in the café of a bookstore recently and overheard a young man tell his friend, "It's hard to get a job these days, even with a degree."
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Wednesday, November 11, 2015
Oops The Feds Did it Again- Are They Setting up The Masses for Another Stimulus Program / Economics / Economic Stimulus
By: Sol_Paha
Is the Fed playing mind games with the masses or is it simply another version of Britney Spears hit song "Oops I did it again"? Only this time they did not. They keep mouthing off that they are ready to raise rates and then suddenly just before the moment to pull the trigger draws near; some unforeseeable event springs up, and they kick the can down the road again. Two questions comes to mind.
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Wednesday, November 11, 2015
BOA's Moynihan: U.S. Consumer Spending Strong in October / Economics / US Economy
By: Bloomberg
Brian Moynihan, Bank of America CEO, spoke with Bloomberg Television's David Westin today about the risks facing the banking industry and the state of the global economy.
Moynihan on U.S. consumer spending: "October is probably one of the strongest months this year relative to October of last year…It's a strong economy…Unemployment levels are down, and wage growth is picking up. That’s all good. Now the question is, what can derail that. And that’s what we have to pay attention to."
Tuesday, November 10, 2015
The Business Cycle Is Winding Down / Economics / Recession 2016
By: Rodney_Johnson
From April through October, I race a 37-foot sailboat every Thursday night. The course changes weekly, and ranges from three to seven miles long, depending on the wind.Before the race, we review the course and weather conditions and decide our strategy for the starting line. During the race, we generally enjoy the sail and competition, with only the occasional bout of yelling. We also enjoy a good beer, while on the boat and afterwards when we retire to the local Irish pub.
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Monday, November 09, 2015
Is Japan's Wicked Economic Winter Almost Over? / Economics / Japan Economy
By: EWI
Economic blossoms may bloom again in the Land of the Rising Sun
The winter season is a common metaphor for a bleak period in someone's life: Borrowing a line from Shakespeare, John Steinbeck titled his final novel "The Winter of Our Discontent."
Nikolai Kondratieff used "winter" to describe the worst part of an economic cycle. Indeed, the famous Russian economist used all four seasons as metaphors for the four natural phases of expansion and contraction that an economy goes through in 50 or 60 years.
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Monday, November 09, 2015
U.S. Manufacturing Renaissance Turns Into the Dark Ages / Economics / US Economy
By: Michael_Pento
The October ISM Manufacturing Index, which has been the official barometer of the U.S. manufacturing sector since 1915, came in with a reading of just 50.1. This was a level barely above contraction.
Of the 18 industries surveyed in the Regional Manufacturing Survey, 9 reported contraction in October: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Primary Metals; Petroleum & Coal Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Machinery; Transportation Equipment; Wood Products; and Computer & Electronic Products.
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Monday, November 09, 2015
U.S. Jobs NonFarm Payrolls +271,000; Is the Game Changing? / Economics / Employment
By: Gary_Tanashian
I can already tell NFTRH 368 is going to be a flowing thing because there is a lot of on-point material to talk about. So the usual standard charts will be minimized in favor of trying to get a good read on what is in process in the markets, in policy and in the economy.
Specifically, given the October Payrolls data, its effect on interest rates and the US dollar we seem to be back to a point similar to where we were 1 year ago when we used a strong USD (and corresponding weak Yen and Euro) to plot bullish trade possibilities in Japan and Europe, and a bearish environment for US exporters.
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Wednesday, November 04, 2015
The Fed Desperately Tries to Maintain the Status Quo / Economics / US Federal Reserve Bank
By: MISES
Ronald-Peter Stöferle writes: During the press conferences of recent FOMC meetings, millions of well-educated investment professionals have been sitting in front of their screens, chewing their fingernails, listening as if spellbound to what Janet Yellen has to tell them. Will she finally raise the federal funds rate that has been zero bound for over six years?