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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Category: Recession 2016

The analysis published under this category are as follows.

Economics

Friday, October 07, 2016

The Next Recession Looms Large / Economics / Recession 2016

By: Peter_Schiff

Currently economists and market watchers roughly fall into two camps: Those who believe that the Federal Reserve must begin raising interest rates now so that it will have enough rate cutting firepower to fight the next recession, and those who believe that raising rates now will simply precipitate an immediate recession and force the Fed into battle without the tools it has traditionally used to stimulate growth. Both camps are delusional, but for different reasons.

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Economics

Wednesday, August 10, 2016

3 Recent Danger Signs of a Looming Recession / Economics / Recession 2016

By: John_Mauldin

BY TONY SAGAMI : The world of investing is much riskier today than when I was growing up.

The biggest risk I see is an economy that is barely expanding beyond stall speed and threatening to fall into a recession.

The Census Bureau recently reported that the US economy grew at a 1.2% annualized pace in Q2. Plus, they adjusted the Q1 GDP growth rate from 1.1% down to just 0.8%.

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Economics

Tuesday, July 05, 2016

Ready or Not the Recession May Have Already Arrived / Economics / Recession 2016

By: Michael_Pento

While investors have been focused on the perennial failed hope for a second half economic recovery, they have been missing the most salient point: the U.S. most likely entered into a recession at the end of last quarter.

That’s right, when adjusting nominal GDP growth for Core Consumer Price Inflation for the average of the past two-quarters the recession is already here. But before we look deeper into this, let’s first look at the following five charts that illustrate the economy has been steadily deteriorating for the past few years and that the pace of decline has recently picked up steam.

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Economics

Saturday, May 14, 2016

Transportation Recession Signals Retail Problems Ahead! / Economics / Recession 2016

By: Gordon_T_Long

Financial Repression and the Structural Concerns for the Retail Market

FRA co-founder Gordon T. Long is joined by Wolf Richter to discuss the struggling retail market and its subsequent impact on the U.S economy as a whole which are a result of the recent financial crisis.

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Economics

Wednesday, April 27, 2016

Global Recession in 2016 and Beyond - The Obvious Evidence / Economics / Recession 2016

By: Rajveer_Rawlin

Definition of a Recession:

The textbook definition of a recession is two quarters of negative GDP growth. Some examples of recessions include the great depression of the 1930's, the dotcom crash of 2000 and the great recession of 2008.

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Economics

Thursday, April 14, 2016

Why is The MSM Covering Up Recessionary Data? / Economics / Recession 2016

By: James_Quinn

The Census Bureau put out their monthly retail sales report this morning. During good times, the MSM would be hailing the tremendous increases as proof the consumer was flush with cash and all was well with the economy. Considering 70% of our GDP is dependent upon consumer spending, you would think this data point would be pretty important in judging how well Americans are really doing.

It's not perfect, because the issuance of debt to consumers to purchase autos, furniture, appliances and electronics can juice the retail sales numbers and create the false impression of strength. That's what has been going on with auto sales for the last two years.

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Economics

Thursday, March 03, 2016

Stock Market Faulty Recession Barometer / Economics / Recession 2016

By: The_Gold_Report

A cacophony of recession chatter is filling the airwaves. Some experts are already declaring we are in one while others are raising warning flags. Their message has not been lost on the masses: Google searches for the word "recession" have risen to the highest level since 2012. Interestingly, many commentators cite the 20% decline in global stock prices as the warning signal, if not the cause. But veteran investor Joe McAlinden believes the U.S. economy will continue to expand in the year ahead.

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Economics

Thursday, February 25, 2016

America We Are Already In A Recession 2016 / Economics / Recession 2016

By: Harry_Dent

So the S&P 500 is out of correction for now and the coast is clear. NOT! This is exactly what we’ve been predicting would happen – after reaching new lows, stocks would have to bounce before they inevitably resume their longer-term trend, which is down.

But stocks haven’t been the only victims of late. Just a couple weeks ago the January nonfarm payroll report came in at 151,000 jobs. So much for the expected 190,000! And of the ones reported, they were mostly low-wage jobs.

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Economics

Friday, February 19, 2016

These 3 Factors Make a U.S. Recession 2016 Highly Probable / Economics / Recession 2016

By: EWI

Dear Investor,

I'm sure you noticed that the markets went off the rails since the start of this year. During this decline, there has been one persistent question market pundits have been trying to answer:

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Economics

Tuesday, February 09, 2016

Oil Price Collapse U.S. Recession Odds 2016 / Economics / Recession 2016

By: Mike_Shedlock

David Rosenberg, chief economist at money-management firm Gluskin Sheff & Associates, went way out on a limb today.

Even though oil broke $30 to the downside again today, bond yields have crashed, and the price of many commodities is below the cost of production, Rosenberg made this statement today as quoted by the Wall Street Journal :

"I put the odds of a U.S. recession in the next year as close to zero as anything could be close to zero."

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Currencies

Monday, February 08, 2016

US Economy Slides One Step Further Towards A Recession / Currencies / Recession 2016

By: Dr_David_J_Harris

SUMMARY:

This article reviews whether the US is potentially sliding towards an economic recession, as defined by NBER.

  • The St. Louis FED publishes a monthly report that presents the output from its smoothed US recession probabilities model.
  • The model covers the period from June 1967 to the present day, and during this period there have been seven US recessions, as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER).
  • The FED model has three false positives and zero false negatives. All three false positives were within two years of a US recession starting, so they can be considered as early indicators of a recession rather than false positives.
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Economics

Friday, February 05, 2016

U.S. Recession 2016 has Arrived; Factory Orders Decline 2.9%, Inventories Rise / Economics / Recession 2016

By: Mike_Shedlock

Even though economists see a mere 20% chance of recession in 2016, I am increasingly confident a recession began in December 2015.

It was another disastrous factory orders report this month.

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Economics

Thursday, January 21, 2016

Why We Need a Recession / Economics / Recession 2016

By: MISES

Ronald-Peter Stöferle writes: According to the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), a recession is defined as a “significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months.” Often, this is understood as two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth as measured by a country’s GDP.

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Economics

Tuesday, January 19, 2016

Why This Economic Slump Has Legs / Economics / Recession 2016

By: Raul_I_Meijer

We’ve only really been in two weeks of trading in the new year, things are looking pretty bad to say the least, so predictably the press are asking -and often answering- questions about when the slump will be over. Rebound, recovery, the usual terminology. When will we get back to growth?

For me personally, but that’s just me, that last question sounds a bit more stupid every single time I hear and read it. Just a bit, but there’s been a lot of those bits, more than I care to remember. Luckily, the answer is easy. The slump will not be over for a very long time, there will be no rebound or recovery, and please stop talking about a return to growth unless you can explain what you want to grow into.

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Economics

Monday, January 11, 2016

Economic Recession, Could the Unthinkable Happen in 2016? / Economics / Recession 2016

By: Clif_Droke

The most important question investors should be asking at this point isn’t whether the secular bull market which began in 2009 is over, but whether continued equity market weakness in 2016 will lead to the unthinkable, namely an economic recession.  A recession in 2016 has been deemed virtually impossible by most mainstream economists, so much so that all discussion of this possibility has evaporated.  And while most U.S. economic data categories are still admittedly strong, the persistent weakness under the surface of the equity market over the last several months demands that the topic be reexamined.   

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Economics

Monday, December 21, 2015

The Recession And Bear Market Of 2016, In Two Charts / Economics / Recession 2016

By: John_Rubino

Good friend Michael Pollaro just sent a couple of charts that show the US economy heading for a brick wall. The first illustrates what happens when business sales (the green line) turn negative. In the previous two boom/bust cycles, when sales started falling the economy either tipped into recession shortly thereafter or (it was discovered in retrospect) was already well into a contraction.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, December 16, 2015

U.S. Interest Rate Hike Too late, Recession Likely in Next 12 Months - Video / Interest-Rates / Recession 2016

By: Bloomberg

Sam Zell, chairman at Equity Group Investments, spoke with Stephanie Ruhle and David Westin on Bloomberg TV's "Bloomberg <GO>." He discussed the expected Federal Reserve rate hike, the risk of a near-term recession, and investor flexibility provided by low-interest.

Zell said: "I think that this interest rate hike is probably 6 or 8 months too late. I think that the economy is closer to falling over than it is to going up."

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Economics

Tuesday, November 10, 2015

The Business Cycle Is Winding Down / Economics / Recession 2016

By: Rodney_Johnson

From April through October, I race a 37-foot sailboat every Thursday night. The course changes weekly, and ranges from three to seven miles long, depending on the wind.

Before the race, we review the course and weather conditions and decide our strategy for the starting line. During the race, we generally enjoy the sail and competition, with only the occasional bout of yelling. We also enjoy a good beer, while on the boat and afterwards when we retire to the local Irish pub.

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Economics

Friday, October 09, 2015

U.S. Can Expect Recession in 1-3 Years / Economics / Recession 2016

By: Bloomberg

David Rubenstein, co-founder and co-CEO at The Carlyle Group, joined hosts Stephanie Ruhle and David Westin on Bloomberg TV's new flagship morning program, Bloomberg <GO>. Rubenstein discussed his call for one or two percent U.S. growth in the next year and explains why the country can expect a recession within the next three years. He also spoke about a transformation taking place in China and unrealistic expectations for 10 percent growth in the nation's economy.

Rubenstein told Bloomberg TV that a U.S. recession is "inevitable." He said "We have not really had a recession in six years.  We came out of the last recession in June of 2009. We tend to have recessions every seven years, more or less in the United States, since World War II.  So at some point in the next year or two or three, you can expect a recession."

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