Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Wednesday, December 16, 2015
UK Jobs: No Pay, No Play / Economics / Employment
By: Ashraf_Laidi
Today's release of the UK jobs figures confirms the suspicions of the doves at the Bank of England, with earnings (pay) growth continuing to decline, joblessness pushing higher for the fourth straight month even as the unemployment rate hit a fresh 7-year low of 5.2%.
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Tuesday, December 15, 2015
Vietnam Sails Smoothly Through The Commodity Storm / Economics / Asian Economies
By: Submissions
Dylan Waller writes: While the gloom faced in commodity prices has created slowed economic growth throughout frontier and emerging markets, there is one global market in Asia in particular that has not been deterred: Vietnam. Low commodity prices have been gruesome for some companies, and on a much larger scale has led to a global economic slowdown for commodity based economies. While the current environment has created a flurry of buy opportunities in commodity based economies, investment in Vietnam provides a similar opportunity with substantially lower risk. Vietnam’s economy, driven by its strategic advantage of low cost manufacturing, is continuing to maintain its position as one of the fastest growing economies in Asia, and is poised for stronger economic growth throughout 2025.
Tuesday, December 08, 2015
Do You Follow The Hype Surrounding Economic Reporting? / Economics / Economic Statistics
By: Rodney_Johnson
When my children were young, one of the books we read to them was: “When You Give a Mouse a Cookie.” The point of the book is to follow a chain reaction stemming from providing a treat to a rodent. He will want a glass of milk, a napkin, have to sweep up crumbs, etc. It was odd, but entertaining.I’m often reminded of this book when I see economic reports. It’s not that the numbers are frivolous, but taken as individual data points they can’t mean very much.
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Monday, December 07, 2015
What Deflation Quacks Like / Economics / Deflation
By: Raul_I_Meijer
As yet another day of headlines shows, see the links and details in today’s Debt Rattle at the Automatic Earth, deflation is visible everywhere, from a 98% drop in EM debt issuance to junk bonds reporting the first loss since 2008 to corporate bonds downgrades to plummeting cattle prices in Kansas to China’s falling demand for iron ore and a whole list of other commodities.
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Saturday, December 05, 2015
Strong U.S. Payroll Number +211,000 Assures December Interest Rate Hike / Economics / US Economy
By: Mike_Shedlock
Initial Reaction
Following last month's payroll surge comes a second strong month. The Bloomberg Consensus estimate was 190,000 jobs and the headline total was 211,000. The unemployment rate was steady to 5.0%, the lowest since April 2008. A rate hike in December is now assured.
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Friday, December 04, 2015
The “Real Stuff” Economy Is Falling Apart / Economics / US Economy
By: John_Rubino
Each month one or two high-profile government reports show the US is growing, adding jobs and generally recovering from the Great Recession. But it’s not clear how that can be, when the part of the economy that makes and moves real things keeps shrinking. Here’s a chart, published recently by Zero Hedge, showing that US manufacturing has been contracting for the past year:
Tuesday, December 01, 2015
Bank Regulations Continue To Hinder The U.S. Economic Recovery / Economics / Market Regulation
By: Steve_H_Hanke
Money matters — it’s one of Milton Friedman’s maxims that I repeat often in my columns. Since the Northern Rock bank run of 2007 — the “opening shot” of the financial crisis — the money supply, broadly measured, in the United States, Great Britain, and the Eurozone has taken a beating.
Recently, in the United States, money supply growth has started to rebound somewhat. This is a positive sign, because the quantity of money and nominal gross domestic product (GDP), as well as related measures of aggregate demand, are all closely related. Indeed, if broad money growth is robust, the nominal GDP, which is composed of real and inflation components, will be robust and vice versa.
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Tuesday, December 01, 2015
Collapsing Global Economic Trade / Economics / Global Economy
By: Chris_Vermeulen
The global economic trade is down 8.4 percent so far this year. Among the many economic indicators that experts use to gauge the health of the world economy, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) usually goes unnoticed. This Index offers an indication of the global demand and supply of major stock materials that are used by manufacturers at the beginning of production. And the shocking truth is that the index has been plummeting to reach a new low not seen before.
Friday, November 27, 2015
Economics Is About Scarcity, Property, and Relationships / Economics / Economic Theory
By: MISES
Michael J. McKay writes: The other day I was having coffee with a new friend, a retired businessman who had customized luxury cars in California. I mentioned I had recently retired from owning an investment firm and had studied economics for many years, especially Austrian economics.
Like so many people, he said, “I really don't understand economics and always have been confused by it.”
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Tuesday, November 24, 2015
BEA Revises 3rd Quarter 2015 US GDP Economic Growth Upward to 2.07% / Economics / US Economy
By: CMI
In their second estimate of the US GDP for the third quarter of 2015, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported that the economy was growing at a +2.07% annualized rate, up +0.58% from their previous estimate -- but still down nearly 2% (-1.85%) from the second quarter.
Monday, November 23, 2015
The Success of Irish Economic Austerity: The Joke is on Krugman / Economics / Economic Austerity
By: Michael_Pento
During the late 1990s, Ireland's economy was booming. This was mostly due to a low corporate tax rate of just 12.5% and an international real estate bubble that boosted global Gross Domestic Product (GDP). For a myriad of reasons Ireland was a magnet for foreign direct investment and the envy of Europe.
Buoyed by cheap money, the Irish government embarked on a debt-fueled property boom from 1997 to 2006, which caused the price of an average house to jump more than four-fold. Flush with tax revenue the government also went on a spending binge: investment in Ireland's health service soared by five times and pay for government workers doubled.
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Sunday, November 22, 2015
Limits to Economic Growth - Challenge and Choices / Economics / Global Economy
By: Nicole_Foss
Nicole Foss: After more than 30 years of exponential growth, gargantuan resource demand and increasingly frenetic consumption, we have now reached, or are reaching, an array of limits to growth. During our long, debt-fuelled boom, we reached out spatially through globalisation to monetise as much global production as possible, in order to facilitate the efficient transfer of wealth from the global periphery to its economic heartland.
We also, through the profligate use of credit and debt, reached forward in time to borrow from the future in order to stage an orgy of consumption in the present. This spectacularly successful modern form of economic imperialism delivered unprecedented wealth concentration, the like of which previous imperial structures could not have dreamed of attaining.
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Sunday, November 22, 2015
Pakistan Stands Strong During Emerging Market Uncertainty / Economics / Pakistan
By: Submissions
Dylan Waller writes: China’s currency devaluation in August created an FX turmoil for a large number of countries in Asia, and with a potential Fed rate hike coming this December, it may be befitting to turn to overlooked areas in Asia to achieve a solid portfolio return. Despite the rapid growth of Pakistan’s economy and its stock exchange, it remains a relegated destination for investment, and a country that Asia based hedge funds consider to be too risky. The Karachi Stock Exchange has had a 1 year return of 13.95%, making it one of the best performing stock markets in Asia. Pakistan’s currency is another bright spot for the country, as it has only had a 4.9% YTD depreciation against the USD. With much of Asia suffering from high FX losses and less superior performing stock markets, Pakistan’s recent performance gives it a prestigious standing in Asia.
Friday, November 20, 2015
The End Of The Economic Recovery, In One Chart / Economics / US Economy
By: John_Rubino
One of the questions on analysts’ minds lately is whether stock prices can keep moving up when corporate sales and profits are falling. But the same can be asked about the overall economy. Why would companies hire more people if they’re selling less stuff? The answer is that they probably won’t. As the chart below — put together by good friend Michael Pollaro — illustrates, business sales and employment have tracked closely since at least the 1990s. When sales have fallen, companies have responded with less hiring and more firing.
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Thursday, November 19, 2015
Japans Sinking Economy - Is Anybody Okay Out There? / Economics / Japan Economy
By: John_Rubino
In normal times, the world’s major economies are a mixed bag. Some are up, some are down, some are placid, some are in crisis. It’s only at the boom/bust extremes that everyone finds themselves in more-or-less the same boat.
This is looking like one of those times — and the boat is sinking. Japan, for instance, is back in recession…
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Thursday, November 19, 2015
The Great Fall Of China Started At Least 4 Years Ago / Economics / China Economy
By: Raul_I_Meijer
Looking through a bunch of numbers and graphs dealing with China recently, it occurred to us that perhaps we, and most others with us, may need to recalibrate our focus on what to emphasize amongst everything we read and hear, if we’re looking to interpret what’s happening in and with the country’s economy.
It was only fair -perhaps even inevitable- that oil would be the first major commodity to dive off a cliff, because oil drives the entire global economy, both as a source of fuel -energy- and as raw material. Oil makes the world go round.
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Wednesday, November 18, 2015
Central Banks Will Not Be Able to Halt Economic Collapse / Economics / Financial Crash
By: Graham_Summers
In 2008, the world experienced the worst economic collapse in 80+ years. This collapse triggered a stock market crash that erased $30 trillion in wealth.
Since that time, collectively Central Banks have cut interest rates over 600 times and have printed over $15 trillion in new money… money that has failed to generate sustained economic growth… money that has set the stage for another stock market crash.
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Wednesday, November 18, 2015
U.S. Inflation Setup to Upset / Economics / Inflation
By: Ned_W_Schmidt
Is U.S. inflation setup to upset the markets? Motivation for considering this question begins with graph to right. Plotted in that chart is the year-to-year percentage change for the median U.S. CPI. That measure is calculated monthly by the diligent elves at Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. Period of time for chart is past ten years.
Tuesday, November 17, 2015
The Gig Economy Is the New Normal / Economics / Employment
By: John_Mauldin
An already-confusing employment environment grew even more complicated this past week. Many readers responded to my “Crime in the Jobs Report” letter with their own stories. Some confirmed what I wrote, while others disputed it. Some of the stories I read from readers who are stuck far from where they want to be in this job market were very moving. I think everyone agrees the labor outlook is uncertain. I sense a lot of nervousness, even from those who have secure jobs that pay well. In today’s letter, I’m going to respond to some of the observations and data that came in this week on employment.
Monday, November 16, 2015
How the Great Depression 2.0 Will Soon Unfold / Economics / Great Depression II
By: Michael_Pento
Those who place their faith in a sustainable economic recovery emanating through government fiat will soon be shocked. Colossal central bank counterfeiting and gargantuan government deficit spending has caused the major averages to climb back towards unchanged on the year. Zero interest rate and negative interest rate policies, along with unprecedented interest rate manipulations, have levitated global stock markets. But still, sustainable and robust GDP growth has been remarkably absent for the past 8 years.