Most Popular
1. It’s a New Macro, the Gold Market Knows It, But Dead Men Walking Do Not (yet)- Gary_Tanashian
2.Stock Market Presidential Election Cycle Seasonal Trend Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
3. Bitcoin S&P Pattern - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Nvidia Blow Off Top - Flying High like the Phoenix too Close to the Sun - Nadeem_Walayat
4.U.S. financial market’s “Weimar phase” impact to your fiat and digital assets - Raymond_Matison
5. How to Profit from the Global Warming ClImate Change Mega Death Trend - Part1 - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Bitcoin Gravy Train Trend Forecast 2024 - - Nadeem_Walayat
8.The Bond Trade and Interest Rates - Nadeem_Walayat
9.It’s Easy to Scream Stocks Bubble! - Stephen_McBride
10.Fed’s Next Intertest Rate Move might not align with popular consensus - Richard_Mills
Last 7 days
US Housing Market Analysis - Immigration Drives House Prices Higher - 30th Sep 24
Stock Market October Correction - 30th Sep 24
The Folly of Tariffs and Trade Wars - 30th Sep 24
Gold: 5 principles to help you stay ahead of price turns - 30th Sep 24
The Everything Rally will Spark multi year Bull Market - 30th Sep 24
US FIXED MORTGAGES LIMITING SUPPLY - 23rd Sep 24
US Housing Market Free Equity - 23rd Sep 24
US Rate Cut FOMO In Stock Market Correction Window - 22nd Sep 24
US State Demographics - 22nd Sep 24
Gold and Silver Shine as the Fed Cuts Rates: What’s Next? - 22nd Sep 24
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks:Nothing Can Topple This Market - 22nd Sep 24
US Population Growth Rate - 17th Sep 24
Are Stocks Overheating? - 17th Sep 24
Sentiment Speaks: Silver Is At A Major Turning Point - 17th Sep 24
If The Stock Market Turn Quickly, How Bad Can Things Get? - 17th Sep 24
IMMIGRATION DRIVES HOUSE PRICES HIGHER - 12th Sep 24
Global Debt Bubble - 12th Sep 24
Gold’s Outlook CPI Data - 12th Sep 24
RECESSION When Yield Curve Uninverts - 8th Sep 24
Sentiment Speaks: Silver Is Set Up To Shine - 8th Sep 24
Precious Metals Shine in August: Gold and Silver Surge Ahead - 8th Sep 24
Gold’s Demand Comeback - 8th Sep 24
Gold’s Quick Reversal and Copper’s Major Indications - 8th Sep 24
GLOBAL WARMING Housing Market Consequences Right Now - 6th Sep 24
Crude Oil’s Sign for Gold Investors - 6th Sep 24
Stocks Face Uncertainty Following Sell-Off- 6th Sep 24
GOLD WILL CONTINUE TO OUTPERFORM MINING SHARES - 6th Sep 24
AI Stocks Portfolio and Bitcoin September 2024 - 3rd Sep 24
2024 = 1984 - AI Equals Loss of Agency - 30th Aug 24
UBI - Universal Billionaire Income - 30th Aug 24
US COUNTING DOWN TO CRISIS, CATASTROPHE AND COLLAPSE - 30th Aug 24
GBP/USD Uptrend: What’s Next for the Pair? - 30th Aug 24
The Post-2020 History of the 10-2 US Treasury Yield Curve - 30th Aug 24
Stocks Likely to Extend Consolidation: Topping Pattern Forming? - 30th Aug 24
Why Stock-Market Success Is Usually Only Temporary - 30th Aug 24
The Consequences of AI - 24th Aug 24
Can Greedy Politicians Really Stop Price Inflation With a "Price Gouging" Ban? - 24th Aug 24
Why Alien Intelligence Cannot Predict the Future - 23rd Aug 24
Stock Market Surefire Way to Go Broke - 23rd Aug 24
RIP Google Search - 23rd Aug 24
What happened to the Fed’s Gold? - 23rd Aug 24
US Dollar Reserves Have Dropped By 14 Percent Since 2002 - 23rd Aug 24
Will Electric Vehicles Be the Killer App for Silver? - 23rd Aug 24
EUR/USD Update: Strong Uptrend and Key Levels to Watch - 23rd Aug 24
Gold Mid-Tier Mining Stocks Fundamentals - 23rd Aug 24
My GCSE Exam Results Day Shock! 2024 - 23rd Aug 24

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Japan: An Economy of Zeros

Economics / Japan Economy May 09, 2016 - 02:05 PM GMT

By: Michael_Pento

Economics

The red sun on the flag of Japan symbolizes its position as the land of the rising sun. However, during WWII that round shape was pejoratively referred to as a zero. And now, since Japans economy is emitting so many zeros it can, unfortunately, once again be referred to as the land of zeros.


Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's economic plan known as Abenomics consists of three arrows. The 1st Arrow is aggressive money printing known as QQE in order to bring about yen depreciation. The 2nd arrow is massive deficit spending. And the 3rd arrow is structural reform, which is political claptrap for feckless growth proposals like increasing workforce diversity.

Therefore, the core strategy of Abenomics is to derive growth by increased government spending and flooding the world with the yen. If Abenomics were only about yen depreciation it would be considered a huge success. The yen lost 35% of its value between 2012-2015. Likewise, if the goal were to run huge deficits Abenomics has also achieved its goal. Since December of 2012 fiscal deficits have ranged between 6-8% of GDP.

What did the Japanese citizens get for losing 35% of their purchasing power? A ten year note that has hovered around 0% for most of this year. Inflation that has been stuck around zero percent and growth that has been virtually zero for years. But most importantly, in an example of how addicted asset prices have become to Japan's perpetually increasing stimulus, The fact that BOJ president Kuroda didn't expand on his 80 trillion yen annual bond buying spree caused the Nicki Dow to drop over 1100 points in the 2 trading days following his announcement.

Japan isn't the only nation with a zero economy.

The Fed printed 3.7 trillion dollars since 2008 and has artificially pushed short-term rates near zero percent for almost 90 months. Yet, all we have to show for this massive intervention in markets is 0.5% annualized GDP growth in Q1. And Q2 doesn't look any better. The usual Wall Street predictions of a Q2 rebound don't look all that promising as the Philly Fed (-1.6), ISM Manufacturing (50.8), Productivity (down 4 of the last 6 quarters) and ADP employment data (156k) all disappointed the Street and pointed to an economy that is merely bouncing around that anemic 0% level. The weak US economy has caused the Dollar Index to fall below 94; a place where it has found support 6 times in the past year.

The weak data in Japan, China, Europe, the United States and the rest of the world should be clear evidence that interest rate manipulation and money printing cannot produce viable growth. Therefore, the big surprise for dollar bulls still lies ahead. While short-term rates are near 0% across the globe, the U.S. is the only nation in the developed world that has been able to produce core inflation of 2.2%. Therefore, real interest rates in the United States are the most negative among all our major trading partners and the level of real interest rates is the primary driver of currency values.

That key 94 support level on the DXY was recently breached and there is no real support until it retreats back to 80 from where it first bounced in July 2014. The main point is while there are no central bankers in the world that are anxious to raise nominal interest rates, the US is the only nation that has been able to achieve CPI above the new 2% goal universally adopted by Keynesian central bankers.

We have a condition of stagflation here in the US. This is occurring in the context of a record $45.2 trillion total non-financial debt, which is growing at an incredible 3.44 times GDP. This is the truth as to why the Fed cannot normalize rates. If it did bring the Fed Funds rate back towards the pre-Great Recession level of around 5%, asset bubbles would collapse along with the tax base of the economy. This would make that already unsustainable ratio of debt to GDP growth explode even higher. You and your portfolio should be on high alert, the market chaos has just begun.

Michael Pento produces the weekly podcast “The Mid-week Reality Check”, is the President and Founder of Pento Portfolio Strategies and Author of the book “The Coming Bond Market Collapse.”

Respectfully,

Michael Pento
President
Pento Portfolio Strategies
www.pentoport.com
mpento@pentoport.com

Twitter@ michaelpento1
(O) 732-203-1333
(M) 732- 213-1295

Michael Pento is the President and Founder of Pento Portfolio Strategies (PPS). PPS is a Registered Investment Advisory Firm that provides money management services and research for individual and institutional clients.

Michael is a well-established specialist in markets and economics and a regular guest on CNBC, CNN, Bloomberg, FOX Business News and other international media outlets. His market analysis can also be read in most major financial publications, including the Wall Street Journal. He also acts as a Financial Columnist for Forbes, Contributor to thestreet.com and is a blogger at the Huffington Post.
               
Prior to starting PPS, Michael served as a senior economist and vice president of the managed products division of Euro Pacific Capital. There, he also led an external sales division that marketed their managed products to outside broker-dealers and registered investment advisors. 
       
Additionally, Michael has worked at an investment advisory firm where he helped create ETFs and UITs that were sold throughout Wall Street.  Earlier in his career he spent two years on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange.  He has carried series 7, 63, 65, 55 and Life and Health Insurance Licenses. Michael Pento graduated from Rowan University in 1991.
       

© 2016 Copyright Michael Pento - All Rights Reserved
Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

Michael Pento Archive

© 2005-2022 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in