Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Monday, January 12, 2009
Credit Crisis Solutions That Should Scare The Hell Out Of You / Economics / Credit Crisis 2009
By: Mike_Shedlock
Things are looking pretty bleak. There is bad news in housing, the stock market, commercial real estate, jobs, and wages . Unfortunately, no matter how bad things are, someone always comes along to propose a "solution" that is guaranteed to make the situation much worse. Please consider the following ideas. Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, January 11, 2009
Antole Kaletsky's Economic Crisis Solution to Tax the Savers into Spending / Economics / Credit Crisis 2009
By: Mick_Phoenix
Dangerous Times - Be careful what you read when Antole Kaletsky is writing. Welcome to the Weekly Report. I have been reading the mainstream media of late to get a feel for the level of understanding writers (and therefore the vast majority of their readers) have for the new economic situation that faces the global economy.Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, January 11, 2009
The Cycle of Economic Deflation During 2009 / Economics / Deflation
By: Prieur_du_Plessis
Bloomberg: Nouriel Roubini - worst is still ahead of US “The global financial system in 2008 experienced its worst crisis since the Great Depression of the 1930s. Major financial institutions went bust. Others were bought up on the cheap or survived only after major bailouts. Global stock markets fell by more than 50% from their 2007 peaks. Interest-rate spreads spiked. A severe liquidity and credit crunch appeared. Many emerging-market economies on the verge of a crisis had to ask for help from the International Monetary Fund.
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Sunday, January 11, 2009
Obama Ups U.S. Job Creation Program to 4 Million / Economics / US Economy
By: Mike_Shedlock
While increasing his jobs creation forecast to 4 million jobs, Obama Calls for Sacrifice, Scaling Back Campaign Promises . President-elect Barack Obama said turning around the U.S. economy will require cutting back on some campaign promises and personal sacrifice from Americans.
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Saturday, January 10, 2009
Economic Forecast 2009: Deflation, Deleveraging, and Recession / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: John_Mauldin
- Forecast 2009: Deflation, Deleveraging, and the Stimulus Effect
- Muddle Through on Hold
- Lies, Damned Lies, and Government Unemployment Numbers
- Central Bankers of the World, Unite!
- Predictions 2009
Where are we headed in 2009? We will explore that in detail over the next few issues of Thoughts from the Frontline, but today we will start with some of the larger forces which will have a major impact on the economies of the world, and I will end with my usual attempt to forecast the various markets. We will look at deflation, deleveraging, the fallout from the stimulus plans (note plural), housing, consumer spending, unemployment, and a lot more. There is a lot to cover. But first two quick announcements.
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Saturday, January 10, 2009
Why the Economic Stimulus Packages are Doomed to Fail / Economics / Credit Crisis Bailouts
By: Oxbury_Research
The Sahara Desert used to have fish. Many people do not know this, but over the last 120,000 years or so, there were no less than three distinct time periods when what is now a desolate expanse of sand was instead covered with rivers, lakes, and grasslands. In fact, millions of years ago, evidence points to the area being a prehistoric ocean. Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, January 09, 2009
U.S. Unemployment Soars to 7.2%; Jobs Contract 12th Straight Month / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Mike_Shedlock
Before taking a look at the monthly jobs data, let's take a look at Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims from The US Department of Labor.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, January 09, 2009
Obama’s Inflationary Bond Market Busting Stimulus Plan / Economics / Credit Crisis Bailouts
By: Money_Morning
When is There “Too Much” Stimulus?
Martin Hutchinson writes: The Congressional Budget Office's announcement Wednesday that 2009's budget deficit was going to be $1.19 billion - before a nickel of President-elect Barack Obama's stimulus plan has been included - raises a crucial question for the U.S. economy: Is there too much stimulus, and what effect would too much stimulus have?
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Friday, January 09, 2009
2009 Money Printing Risks Igniting Hyper-inflationary Spiral / Economics / Credit Crisis 2009
By: Andy_Sutton
2009 has certainly started off with a bang. While the financial markets have been rather quiet, underlying economic fundamentals continue to deteriorate. Unfortunately, the rubber-stamped response to this deterioration has been nothing short of more of the same. More debt, more deficit spending, and more subterfuge to insist that it just isn’t so. The monetary stops have been pulled as the Federal government has gone public with its intentions. The biggest problem with this is that what we’re hearing now is what was going on six months ago. The idea of persistent trillion dollar deficits has been firmly planted with absolutely no mention of an exit strategy or how the Congress is planning on paying back these exorbitant amounts of borrowing. Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, January 09, 2009
U.S. Unemployment: The Great Year-End Jobs Blowout / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Oxbury_Research
1.1 Million Gone in Only 60 Days… In December, no less than 693,000 jobs disappeared from the private non-farm payrolls, a dramatic and disturbing increase from the 476,000 jobs lost in November. More than one million unemployed persons in two months would cripple most countries and throw them into a major depression, but even in a nation of 300 million persons this is a disturbingly large increase.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, January 08, 2009
Unintended Consequences of the 20th Century and Beyond / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: James_Quinn
“The law of unintended consequences is what happens when a simple system tries to regulate a complex system. The political system is simple. It operates with limited information (rational ignorance), short time horizons, low feedback, and poor and misaligned incentives. Society in contrast is a complex, evolving, high-feedback, incentive-driven system. When a simple system tries to regulate a complex system you often get unintended consequences.” Andrew Gelman Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, January 08, 2009
Unemployment Claims Crash Multiple State Websites / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Mike_Shedlock
As pink slips mount, so do calls to state unemployment centers. Those calls are pouring in so fast that state unemployment claim systems are overwhelmed .
Electronic unemployment filing systems have crashed in at least three states in recent days amid an unprecedented crush of thousands of newly jobless Americans seeking benefits, and other states were adjusting their systems to avoid being next.
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Thursday, January 08, 2009
Massive Jobs Contraction In Small and Medium Sized Businesses / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Mike_Shedlock
2008 is poised to become of the worst years ever for jobs. So far it is 11 out of 11 months for job losses. December will make it a perfect 12 of 12. Furthermore, it is now looking likely that December will exceed November's grim total of 533,00 jobs lost. See Jobs Contract 11th Straight Month; Unemployment Rate Hits 6.7% for more details.
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Wednesday, January 07, 2009
Unemployment Pink Slips Mount and So Do Concerns / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Mike_Shedlock
Increasing numbers of "Pink Slips" are weighing on the minds of consumers. Every industry, every service is affected, not just in the US, but globally. Please consider Alcoa to cut 13 pct of global work force Alcoa Inc., the world's third-largest aluminum maker, said Tuesday it will cut 13,500 jobs, or 13 percent of its work force, and slash spending and output to cope with the global economic slowdown.
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Wednesday, January 07, 2009
Families Start Saving; Does This Aggravate The Nation's Woes? / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Mike_Shedlock
Inquiring minds are reading Hard-Hit Families Finally Start Saving, Aggravating Nation's Economic Woes . Here are some snips from the article, followed by a rebuttal.
Rick and Noreen Capp recently reduced their credit-card debt, opened a savings account and stopped taking their two children to restaurants. Jessica and Alan Muir have started buying children's clothes at steep markdowns, splitting bulk-food purchases with other families and gathering their firewood instead of buying it for $200 a cord.
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Wednesday, January 07, 2009
Great Economic Paradox of Stimulus and Bailout Packages / Economics / Credit Crisis Bailouts
By: John_Mauldin
There is an ongoing debate on the current nature of the economic environment and what should the response be by government. Today's Outside the Box by Paul McCulley takes up one view, arguing that we need a federal response and stimulus package to protect the overall economy and save capitalism from itself. Tomorrow, I am going to send yet another view arguing that by doing so we are hurting the prudent investor and businesses that did not over-leverage and behaved responsibly. Both are important to understand. And as I will argue on Friday in my 2009 Forecast Issue, both are right. And that is one of the great economic paradoxes that we are faced with today. Navigating through this period is particularly challenging, but I think it is critical that you understand what Paul says today and what Bennet Sedacca will say tomorrow. Understanding what is going to happen, whether or not we agree with the philosophy behind it should be our goal, as it will make us better able to respond with our own portfolio and business decisions.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, January 06, 2009
Depression 2009 The Largest Train Wreck in Economic History / Economics / Great Depression II
By: Darryl_R_Schoon
Change is a constant whether perceived or not; but only when we see it do we believe it has occurred. Then, it is too late.
The phrase, speculative bubble, is used to describe the financial tumescence that characterizes the often manic unfounded rise of asset values. The phrase, however, is inadequate for it fails to convey the destructive aftermath that follows; for such purposes, train wreck, is a better description. In 2009, the largest train wreck in economic history is about to occur.
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Monday, January 05, 2009
Fed's Supports "Experimental Approaches" to Prevent Deflation / Economics / Deflation
By: Mike_Shedlock
Nearly everyone is hopping on the Keynesian bandwagon as the urge to try something, anything, to halt this economic slide is simply overpowering.Please consider Fed's Yellen Supports ‘Substantial' Economic Stimulus . The U.S. economy faces a “serious risk” of stagnating for an extended period of time and “it's worth pulling out all the stops” on fiscal stimulus, said Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Janet Yellen.
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Sunday, January 04, 2009
Deep Global Economic GDP Contraction During 2009 / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Prieur_du_Plessis
Financial Times: GMAC gets $6 billion injection from US Treasury
“The US Treasury department late on Monday unveiled up to $6 billion in aid for GMAC, the financial services group which is critical to part-owner General Motors‘ turnaround.
“The Treasury said in a statement it would buy $5 billion in senior preferred equity with an 8% dividend from GMAC, characterizing the investment as part of ‘a broader program to assist the domestic automotive industry in becoming financially viable'.
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Friday, January 02, 2009
United States a Banana Republic? / Economics / US Economy
By: Michael_Pento
Well, agriculturally speaking the answer is no: the United States has minimal banana production and the four leading exporters of the fruit are all located south of the Tropic of Cancer. Sadly, however, once you “peel” away the façade, the U.S. has recently embraced economic policies that could soon lead us to carrying the moniker of “banana republic.” Hanlon, being the optimist that he is, gets a little queasy when I use such phrases, but since respectable figures such as Steve Forbes and Larry Kudlow have even raised the question lately, he'll hold his nose and indulge me here!Read full article... Read full article...