Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Friday, December 25, 2009
UK Retail Sales Signal Debt Fuelled Election Consumer Boom / Economics / Economic Recovery
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This is the next in a series of analysis as part of my unfolding inflationary mega-trend scenario towards the formulation of an inflation forecast for 2010 and beyond. I aim to complete the whole scenario including interest rates, economy and implications of before the end of December which will be published as an ebook that I will make available for FREE. Ensure you are subscribed to my always free newsletter to get the latest analysis in your email box and check my most recent analysis on the probable inflation mega-trend at http://www.walayatstreet.com
Thursday, December 24, 2009
UK Inflation Analysis, M4 Money Supply Adjusted for the Velocity of Money / Economics / Inflation
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This is the next in a series of analysis as part of my unfolding inflationary mega-trend scenario towards the formulation of an inflation forecast for 2010 and beyond. I aim to complete the whole scenario including interest rates, economy and implications of before the end of December which will be published as an ebook that I will make available for FREE. Ensure you are subscribed to my always free newsletter to get the latest analysis in your email box and check my most recent analysis on the probable inflation mega-trend at http://www.walayatstreet.com
Thursday, December 24, 2009
Labour Government Ends 2009 With Britain's Greatest Economic Depression / Economics / Great Depression II
By: Nadeem_Walayat
UK GDP for the 3rd Quarter was revised marginally higher to minus 0.2% from the earlier ONS estimate of minus 0.3%. The year has witnessed 'think tanks' and academic institutions flailing in all directions as optimistic forecasts of earlier in the year proceeded to be continuously revised lower in terms of economic contraction and then by late summer in advance of third quarter GDP data starting to anticipate an economic recovery in the third quarter with consensus for a 0.3% growth which failed to materialise.
Wednesday, December 23, 2009
Strong U.S. Dollar Foreshadows Economic Doom in 2010 / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Pravda
Normally, in what passes for Orthodox economics, a strong currency for a consumer nation is a good thing, a positive development. And America is the biggest consumer, and one of the smallest producers, in human history.
Wednesday, December 23, 2009
Bernanke's Flawed Understanding of Economic Theory / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Frank_Shostak
In his speech at the Economic Club in Washington, DC on December 7, the Fed chairman, Ben Bernanke, detailed his expectations of the future course of the US economy. Below, I comment on the various parts of Bernanke's speech.
Wednesday, December 23, 2009
Credit Card Law, Benefits and Fallout / Economics / Credit Crisis 2009
By: Andy_Sutton
It is probably very appropriate as we close in on the traditional climax of consumer largesse to discuss the backdrop of this year’s consumption binge (or lack thereof). So lavish has spending historically been between the day after Thanksgiving and the end of the year that it has become a month that retailers cannot do without. They’ve even gone as far as to name the days, coining the terms ‘Black Friday’ and more recently ‘Cyber Monday’.
Wednesday, December 23, 2009
Brace Yourself For a Hard Economic Landing / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Mike_Whitney
Ben Bernanke has been a bigger disaster than Hurricane Katrina. But the senate is about to re-up him for another four-year term. What are they thinking? Bernanke helped Greenspan inflate the biggest speculative bubble of all time, and still maintains that he never saw it growing. Right. How can retail housing leap from $12 trillion to $21 trillion in 7 years (1999 to 2006) without popping up on the Fed's radar? It's not possible. Bernanke is just fudging the facts to save his skin.
Wednesday, December 23, 2009
The Four Steps to Hyperinflationary Booms / Economics / HyperInflation
By: Dr_Jeff_Lewis
With the current US deficit soaring above $12 trillion, the conditions are ripe for inflation. However, is hyperinflation just around the corner?
Step 1: A Collapse
Before hyperinflation can begin, there is often a collapse, or series of collapses, that send currency prices higher. Fleeing from assets, whether metals, stocks, or even real estate, investors sell their holdings for currency or cash. When you sell an instrument, you are not necessarily selling an asset as much as you are buying another.&
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Tuesday, December 22, 2009
Staggered Return to Global Economic Growth For 2010 / Economics / Economic Recovery
By: Victoria_Marklew
We are ushering in 2010 on a note of guarded hope, unlike the dawn of 2009 when great apprehension about the global economy was the predominant theme. Three broad aspects stand out as the curtain closes on 2009. First, recession is now a matter of history. Second, massive financial sector blowups are mostly behind us, but smaller yet significant tempests cannot be ruled out. Third, an arduous economic recovery is nearly certain. Against this backdrop, we think the world economy will move ahead with mixed economic momentum but mostly tilted toward a positive economic growth trajectory. We begin with predictions of economic growth, inflation, and unemployment, then take a look at fiscal challenges, currency issues and potential asset valuation problems in selected countries.
Tuesday, December 22, 2009
E.U. IMF Debt Revolt, Greece, Iceland, Latvia May lead the Way / Economics / Global Debt Crisis
By: Ellen_Brown
Europe’s small, debt-strapped countries could follow the lead of Argentina and simply walk away from their debts. That would shift the burden to the creditor countries, which could solve the problem merely by a change in accounting rules.
Total financial collapse, once a problem only for developing countries, has now come to Europe. The International Monetary Fund is imposing its “austerity measures” on the outer circle of the European Union, with Greece, Iceland and Latvia the hardest hit. But these are not your ordinary third world debtor supplicants. Historically, the Vikings of Iceland successfully invaded Britain; Latvia n tribes repulsed the Vikings; and the Greeks conquered the whole Persian empire. If anyone can stand up to the IMF, these stalwart European warriors can.
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Tuesday, December 22, 2009
Fed Fictional Reserve Lending And The Myth Of Excess Reserves / Economics / Deflation
By: Mike_Shedlock
In A Case for the Inflation Camp Robert P. Murphy asks When Will the Inflation Genie Get Out of the Bottle? Murphy's concern is over "excess reserves".
Tuesday, December 22, 2009
A Case for the Inflation Camp / Economics / Inflation
By: Robert_Murphy
One of the more awkward situations facing Austrian economists today is that we are divided on whether to expect price deflation or inflation. Although it's good that we publicly disagree with each other — rather than bury our disagreements to reassure the lay public that we know what we're talking about — it's nonetheless unsettling that our prognoses for the US dollar are so divergent.
Tuesday, December 22, 2009
The Recession Is Over but the Economic Depression Has Just Begun / Economics / Great Depression II
By: LewRockwell
Edward Harrison writes: This is an updated version of a post I wrote about two-and-a-half months ago over at Credit Writedowns. When I wrote it, I had been looking for bullish data points as counterfactuals to my bearish long-term outlook. I found some, but not nearly enough.
Monday, December 21, 2009
Dubai Crisis to Sustained Growth / Economics / Middle East
By: Submissions
Dr. Raju M. Mathew writes: Dubai A Victim - Dubai is a victim of over-projection at the time of boom and underestimation at the time of bust or crisis. Builders, investors, sellers and buyers in Dubai behave irrationally without having a clear cut idea or knowledge about the actual strength and weakness of Dubai. Misinformation and semi-processed data were the basis of all the speculation in Dubai. In Dubai fantasy prevails over reality. The real economy of Dubai is far away from the over projection and under estimation made by the market players as well as its friends and enemies.
Monday, December 21, 2009
U.S. Government Caught in a Lie on Bogus Jobs Data / Economics / Market Manipulation
By: Captain_Hook
It’s no secret governments and our ruling elite (the bureaucracy) lie for their own benefit, and this has been increasingly prevalent for years now. Perhaps the most well known statistics in this respect center on the Employment Report, viewed as the central economic release of the month by most observers in that employment is seen as the core of the economy. In knowing this, and not forgetting governments lie to us in just about everything, it should be of no surprise then that John Williams of Shadow Government Statistics has been able to make a business out of reporting on irregularities and discrepancies in official statistics, where even though such fraudulent data was sufficient to spark a noticeable sell-off in commodities and precious metals last Friday via bogus jobs numbers, one knows this is more fiction than reality.
Monday, December 21, 2009
Is the Economic Stimulus Recovery Party Over? / Economics / Great Depression II
By: Q1_Publishing
Is the Fed’s free money, economic “reflation” party coming to an end?
There are a lot of well-publicized signs it may be.
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Monday, December 21, 2009
Krugman Falls into the Keynesian National Income Accounting Trap / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Robert_Murphy
It's one thing to criticize Paul Krugman for his views on Austrian economics, but only a brave soul would have the temerity to question Krugman's discussion of the Keynesian approach to international trade, right? Since Krugman is the world's most famous living Keynesian, and he won the Nobel (Memorial) Prize for his work on trade theory, accusing him of a basic error on this score would be akin to telling Madonna she knows nothing of pop music.
Monday, December 21, 2009
The Credit Crisis is Not Over / Economics / Credit Crisis 2009
By: Bob_Chapman
As we look back and this year comes to an end we find two plus years of failure. Even government admits to 1-1/2 years of negative growth - a sorry record after having poured trillions of dollars into the economy. The recent 3rd quarter results supposedly broke that record. If it did it was the result of government stimulus and Fed monetization. If you look back further you will find a stock market that rallied 54% just to reflect the highs of 1999. House prices have decline to 1990s levels as well. Both markets, which were bubbles, next year will fall again. Americans opened their markets to products of Communist China’s slave labor and China became the world’s biggest exporter. Via free trade, globalization, offshoring and outsourcing, transnational conglomerates have stolen America’s destiny and handed it to China. This is what corporatist fascism is all about.
Monday, December 21, 2009
The Fed, A Weapon of Monetary Destruction / Economics / Central Banks
By: LewRockwell
In an extended propagandistic interview in Time magazine, Ben Bernanke is finally asked the crucial question:
Read full article... Read full article...Q: So, I'm a fringe economics type, I'm not personally, but I'm saying a reader picks up TIME Magazine, and they see this and they go, oh, my God, Ben Bernanke, low interest rates caused this whole thing. He's just an extension of that devil man, Alan Greenspan. Low interest rates, this is the whole cause. What's your bullet answer to that?
A: It's hard to give a bullet answer.
Monday, December 21, 2009
U.S. Economy Faces a Very Unhappy New Year 2010 / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Gerard_Jackson
Since US business investment peaked in 2008 it has dropped by 20 per cent. Not to worry though. According to Professor Blinder -- an eminent Princeton economist -- the situation will reverse itself because "plants and equipment wear out". This is an incredible statement for professor of economics to make. It assumes an automatic process that replaces capital once it is consumed. But capital replacement requires a human decision based on the availability of savings and favourable expectations about the future.