Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Monday, January 11, 2010
Baby Boomer Demographics, Household Formation and the Hoax Economy / Economics / Demographics
By: Mike_Shedlock
Following is a collection of Emails from a few key friends regarding household formation, baby boomer and millennials demographics, the labor participation rate, trends in unemployment, and debt deflation.
One of the emails is from Steve Keen, a noted economist.
Monday, January 11, 2010
U.S. Unemployment Numbers Illustrate Retarded Economic Recovery / Economics / Economic Recovery
By: Gerard_Jackson
When the official unemployment figure dropped by 0.2 per cent to 10 per cent the so-called media were quick to claim it as evidence that the economy was now moving in the right direction. But how could this be if firms were not hiring? To any reasonable observer of the economic scene it was obvious that the number of discouraged workers must be rising. The jury is now in, making this conclusion official: The Labor Department has reported that 929,000 "discouraged workers" ceased looking for work.
Sunday, January 10, 2010
On the Precipice of a Global Economic Avalanche That No Bailout Can Stop / Economics / Great Depression II
By: Mac_Slavo
Bob Chapman says we’re Still In A Credit Crisis, New Liquidity Threatens Inflation. On top of that, we could very well be on the precipace of a paradigm shift in America:
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Sunday, January 10, 2010
China Economy and Stock Market Crash Warning From Hedge Fund Manager / Economics / China Economy
By: Trader_Mark
This is not a new position for legendary short selling oriented hedge fund manager (who smoked out Enron) Jim Chanos, but he continues to pound the table on the dangers of China. [Dec 16, 2009: CNBC Video - Hedge Fund Maven Jim Chanos on Autos, Banking, and China] It's a tough environment to be short anything globally; I assume he is taking some pain even in his anti automotive parlays.
Sunday, January 10, 2010
Surge in U.S. Personal Bankruptcies, Foreclosures and Job Losses / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Bob_Chapman
The number of Americans filing for personal bankruptcy rose by nearly a third in 2009, a surge largely driven by foreclosures and job losses.
And more people are filing for Chapter 7 bankruptcy, which liquidates assets to pay off some debts and absolves the filers of others. That is significant because a 2005 overhaul of federal bankruptcy laws aimed to encourage Chapter 13 filings, which force consumers to sign onto debt-repayment plans in exchange for keeping certain assets.
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Sunday, January 10, 2010
Consumer Credit Drops Record $17.5 Billion; Steepest Declines Since WWII / Economics / Deflation
By: Mike_Shedlock
While monetarist clowns focus on so-called excess reserves and the huge surge in inflation that is supposed to bring (See Fictional Reserve Lending And The Myth Of Excess Reserves) I am watching the biggest plunge in consumer credit since WWII.
Saturday, January 09, 2010
Why Deflation is Not Ahead / Economics / Deflation
By: Gary_North
There is a debate going on within pro-gold circles: inflation or deflation. The deflationists predict that price deflation is inevitable and imminent. The inflationists insist that mass inflation is inevitable, but maybe not imminent.
Deflationists rarely speak of mass deflation, let alone hyperdeflation. Just deflation. They do not say by what percent prices will fall each year or for how many years.
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Saturday, January 09, 2010
Is The US At An Extreme Risk Of A Double Dip Recession? / Economics / Economic Recovery
By: Submissions
Safari Investment Research write: One of the major concerns at the end of 2008 and beginning of 2009 was how much the average U.S. consumer has to de-lever in order to reach a sustainable debt level that could be supported in a declining asset price environment. As we all know, the environment changed quickly in the 2nd quarter of 2009 when all asset prices began to rise in value and the national savings rate continued to climb (See Exhibit 1).
Saturday, January 09, 2010
Economic Aspects of the Pension Problem: Part II / Economics / Pensions & Retirement
By: Professor_Emeritus
As It Appears Sixty Years Later
In Two Parts. Part Two: Productivity Revisited - In Part One I discussed the clear and present danger to pension rights: deflation as manifested by the interest rates structure that has been falling for almost thirty years, while most observers still think that the real danger is inflation. In this concluding part I carry out a deeper analysis of the pension problem, looking at the marginal productivity of labor and capital.
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Saturday, January 09, 2010
Economy Forecast 2010 the Uncertain Statistical Economic Recovery / Economics / Economic Recovery
By: John_Mauldin
2010: A Year of Uncertainty
"Rocking Even Me"
Prisoners of Our Preconceptions
The Statistical Recovery
The Great Experiment
Whither the Fed?
"Lying here, during all this time after my own small fall, it has become my conviction that things mean pretty much what we want them to mean. We'll pluck significance from the least consequential happenstance if it suits us and happily ignore the most flagrantly obvious symmetry between separate aspects of our lives if it threatens some cherished prejudice or cosily comforting belief; we are blindest to precisely whatever might be most illuminating." - from Transition, by Iain M. Banks
Friday, January 08, 2010
The History of Money, Credit, Debt and Banking, Financial Lessons of the Ages / Economics / Debt & Loans
By: Doug_Wakefield
Rather than rigorous study, which would help us connect the explosion of debt that has occurred in the last century (particularly since the early 1970s) with the financial markets, the majority of the financial industry and the investors who depend on their experience, have instead relied on simple slogans like, “the market always goes up over the long term” or “invest according to your risk tolerance.” And as long as the public believes that up markets mean the elixir of capitalism is working and we are getting better and that down markets are only temporary, these trite sayings will suffice. Human nature being what it is, I suppose we would rather seek “advice” that allows us see things the way we want them to be, rather than address how unsustainable debt and corporate and political corruption could impact our collective future.
Friday, January 08, 2010
December U.S. Job Losses Implications for Economic Recovery / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Sy_Harding
The Labor Department’s report that 85,000 jobs were lost in December was certainly a disappointment, much worse than the consensus forecast that job losses had bottomed in November and perhaps as many as 10,000 new jobs may have been created in December.
Friday, January 08, 2010
Massive 43% Jump in U.S. Emergency Unemployment Benefits, Government Manipulating Data? / Economics / Economic Statistics
By: Mike_Shedlock
I was intrigued by a post by Zero Hedge asking Is The Government Misrepresenting Unemployment By 32%?
Friday, January 08, 2010
The Next Major Bull Market Will Be In Economic Nonsense / Economics / Economic Statistics
By: Graham_Summers
I am not trying to be flippant, nor humorous. Indeed, we in the US will very likely see a massive escalation of propaganda, phony economic data, massaged labor statistics, and the like in 2010.
Thursday, January 07, 2010
The Nine Chinese Men Who Control the Fate of America / Economics / US Bonds
By: DailyWealth
Dr. Steve Sjuggerud writes: Nine politicians in China control the fate of the United States of America.
I'm not kidding. The implications are scary. Let me explain...
Thursday, January 07, 2010
How Long Will the Economic Recovery Continue? / Economics / Economic Recovery
By: Mike_Whitney
There's no denying that the economy is getting better, but will it last? Many economists don't think so, including experts at opposite ends of the ideological spectrum, like Paul Krugman and Martin Feldstein. They think the economy will begin to fizzle sometime in the latter part of 2010 when Obama's $787 billion fiscal stimulus runs out and consumers are forced to pick up the slack in demand. That's a safe bet, too, considering that unemployment will still be somewhere in the neighborhood of 9 percent and households will still be digging out from the $13 trillion they lost during the crisis. And the fact that the Fed is planning to end its quantitative easing (QE) program in early April, doesn't help either.
Thursday, January 07, 2010
U.S. Jobs May Rebound In 2010, But Unemployment ? / Economics / Employment
By: Mike_Shedlock
The USA Today says Jobs May Rebound In 2010.
The article has some very nice interactive graphs showing state by state forecasts. The charts below that I copied are not interactive.
Thursday, January 07, 2010
Do Technological Innovations Cause Business Cycles? / Economics / Economic Theory
By: MISES
Malte Tobias Kähler writes: Agora — "market" — was the name for the public place in the center of ancient Hellenic cities. Spanish film director Alejandro Amenábar recently gave his new movie the same dignified title. It tells the story of Hypatia of Alexandria, a wise and proud woman, a teacher of philosophy and astronomy at the library of that old metropolis. During those times, the dominant model of the solar system was the Ptolemaic view, in which the earth is located in the centre, and the sun and all the planets surround it in circles.
Thursday, January 07, 2010
U.S. Economy 2010 From Scandalous Past to Uncertain Future / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Prof_Rodrigue_Trembl
“Homes rose markedly in value, especially in hot markets like Florida and New York City. Borrowers believed that home purchases were no-risk ventures certain to escalade, and they went out on a limb to buy. Lenders who had once required large down payments now permitted home purchasers to combine two and three loans to buy a home. People took out what were called “buffet” loans, which were interest-only loans that buyers were told they should refinance in three years or five years. Lenders told home buyers not to worry; homes were rising so fast in value that it would always be easy to refinance into another loan.
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Thursday, January 07, 2010
Keynes and Bernanke on Bubbles and Manias: Blame the Free Market / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Gary_North
In 1936, John Maynard Keynes' book appeared: The General Theory of Employment, Interest, and Money. It changed the world. It justified in the name of economic theory what governments had been doing since 1932: running deficits and creating fiat money. Keynes' ideas took over. Today, they are dominant. The 30-year break, 1978–2008 – Chicago School, rational expectations, efficient market theory – is over. Academic economists, like Dorothy in Kansas, ran for the Keynesian storm cellar. Unlike Dorothy, they made it. No trip to Oz for them!