Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Friday, September 21, 2012
Do Trade Deficits and Surpluses Matter? / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Ian_R_Campbell
Why read: Because I believe that where a country runs continuous net trade deficits and increasing net cumulative trade deficits that is a bad thing in the context of the economic well-being of that country. Others disagree, and in the current economic environment where the United States - still the world's most important economy - continuously:
Friday, September 21, 2012
Today’s Global Economic Crisis Worse than the Great Depression? / Economics / Great Depression 2010's
By: Washingtons_Blog
What Do Economic Indicators Say?
We’ve repeatedly pointed out that there are many indicators which show that the last 5 years have been worse than the Great Depression of the 1930s, including:
Friday, September 21, 2012
Eurozone Panic! Steepest Economic Contraction Since June 2009, Global Recession / Economics / Recession 2012
By: Mike_Shedlock
The global recession which started in Europe, is strengthening led by further declines in the eurozone. Markit reports Eurozone sees steepest contraction since June 2009 despite downturn easing in Germany.
Friday, September 21, 2012
Forget About QE… I’m Worried About UC / Economics / Inflation
By: Graham_Summers
Let’s just be blunt here.
Inflation is back in a big way. It’s not going to show up in the official numbers, but if you’ve paid for gas or food or healthcare recently, you’ve no doubt noticed that:
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Thursday, September 20, 2012
Money Printing Stimulus, Is this the world’s most important debate? / Economics / Quantitative Easing
By: William_Bancroft
Last week the Bernanke Fed recommenced its interventionist tendencies and announced QE3. The world’s most important central bank will be able to buy its previously targeted range of securities to the tune of $40bn a month.
The Fed probably felt newly empowered by the ECB’s recent promises to action, and the deliberately awe inspiring words of ‘Super’ Mario Draghi. The world’s most systemically important central banks are building their balance sheets and with it an even bigger hand in the world’s most important financial game of poker.
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Wednesday, September 19, 2012
Why You Should Prepare for Econcomic Catastrophe / Economics / Inflation
By: Gary_North
It is not often that readers get a clear-cut choice between two forecasts. Most forecasts have wiggle room. Not the following.
1. The United States government will default.
2. The United States government will not default.
I hold the first position. John T. Harvey holds the second. He wrote a piece for Forbes defending his position: "It Is Impossible For The US To Default".
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Tuesday, September 18, 2012
Mexico, the “Forgotten” Emerging Market / Economics / Mexico
By: Benjamin_Shepherd
Mexico is the closest emerging market to the US, after all, it’s right next door but it hasn’t been getting much attention from American investors.A major reason is Mexico’s close linkage to the economic behemoth to its north. Mexico doesn’t just catch cold when America sneezes; it comes down with a nasty case of pneumonia.
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Monday, September 17, 2012
Slow Painful Economic Death Spiral of Debasement and Despair / Economics / Great Depression II
By: James_Quinn
ARE YOU SEEING WHAT I’M SEEING?
Is it just me, or are the signs of consumer collapse as clear as a Lowes parking lot on a Saturday afternoon? Sometimes I wonder if I'm just seeing the world through my pessimistic lens, skewing my point of view. My daily commute through West Philadelphia is not very enlightening, as the squalor, filth and lack of legal commerce remain consistent from year to year. This community is sustained by taxpayer subsidized low income housing, taxpayer subsidized food stamps, welfare payments, and illegal drug dealing. The dependency attitude, lifestyles of slothfulness and total lack of commerce has remained constant for decades in West Philly. It is on the weekends, cruising around a once thriving suburbia, where you perceive the persistent deterioration and decay of our debt fixated consumer spending based society.
Sunday, September 16, 2012
Is the "Fiscal Cliff" a Threat to the U.S. Economy? / Economics / Taxes
By: Frank_Shostak
The US Congressional Budget Office (CBO) said on August 22, 2012, that scheduled tax increases and spending cuts in 2013 would reverse the current modest economic recovery. The CBO and other experts are of the view that large government spending cuts and tax hikes will cause severe economic slump.
Sunday, September 16, 2012
Understanding Deflation, Pro Football Defense, Downside Pressure on Prices Has Only Begun / Economics / Deflation
By: EWI
You've heard (and probably used) the phrase, "I'd rather watch the game on television."
It's what a sports fan says if he doesn't want to face traffic jams, inadequate parking, overpriced tickets, noisy crowds, and possibly a poor view of the game.
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Thursday, September 13, 2012
Hyperinflation Is Virtually Assured – John Williams / Economics / HyperInflation
By: Videos
The Federal Reserve is talking about “unlimited QE,” or money printing, to boost employment. Economist John Williams says, “That’s absolutely nonsense. The Fed is just propping up the banks.” Williams says, “You’re likely going to see a dollar sell-off . . . That should evolve into hyperinflation.”
Tuesday, September 11, 2012
A Decade of Volatility: Demographics, Debt, and Deflation / Economics / Deflation
By: John_Mauldin
Harry Dent gave a speech I listened to a while back, and I got him to transcribe it for this week's Outside the Box. One thing about Harry is, you are never left wondering what he thinks about a topic. He sees inevitable demography-caused deflation in our future and makes some very intriguing arguments that deserve pondering.
At the end is a link to another report and a way to subscribe to his letter, if you are interested in more of his perspective. But first, I suggest you read this straightforward, informative presentation. There is also a link to the actual video of him speaking, should you prefer that.
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Tuesday, September 11, 2012
ECB Calmed the Markets, Will China Act Next? / Economics / Economic Stimulus
By: Frank_Holmes
After Mario Draghi announced the European Central Bank's new bond buying program, I was the first guest on CNBC Asia's Squawk Box to weigh in on this decision. I reiterated my stance that the endgame for Europe would be to print money, which will eventually lead to currency wars. These actions are positive for gold and also for increased economic activity.
Sunday, September 09, 2012
How Down Economic Statistics Can Be Up if You Make the Rules, QE3? / Economics / Economic Statistics
By: John_Mauldin
"In the financial markets, the current economic cycle is still often viewed as if it is comparable to the far shorter cycles we have experienced since World War II. If that was indeed the case, the solution would be to implement fiscal and monetary stimuli now until lending to the private sector and thereby growth rise substantially. However, what is being overlooked is that the total debt/GDP ratio has risen so sharply over the past 75 years that the limit has probably been reached.
Saturday, September 08, 2012
U.S. August Employment Data Contains Ample Evidence to Justify QE3 / Economics / Employment
By: Asha_Bangalore
Before examining the nitty-gritty aspects of the August employment report, the main take away is that the overall tone of the numbers is disappointing. In addition, recent economic reports also cast a long shadow. The three consecutive monthly readings of the factory PMI that are below the critical mark of 50 (which denotes a contraction in factory activity) and the drop in July construction outlays are each sufficiently worrisome signals to win over the skeptics in the FOMC.
Saturday, September 08, 2012
Are Euro-zone Rescue Efforts Too Late To Prevent A Global Recession? / Economics / Global Economy
By: Sy_Harding
Economic growth continues to slow at an accelerated pace globally, not just in Greece and Spain, and other euro-zone countries in the headlines, but in the world’s ten largest economies of the U.S., China, Japan, Germany, France, the United Kingdom, Brazil, Italy, India, and Canada. The 17-nation eurozone as a whole is already in a recession. Many other nations are just barely keeping their heads above water.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, September 07, 2012
Central Banks Attack on Aggregate Demand / Economics / Economic Stimulus
By: Andy_Sutton
We are now at least somewhat clear on one central bank’s plans for the economies under control. Save a significant reversal, the European Central Bank (ECB) is going to ‘nuclear’. That is to say the bank will engage on a program of bond buying in the Eurozone that is unlimited in scope, duration, and magnitude. A thoroughly anemic August jobs report has now applied even more pressure on the USFed to act when it meets next week. While the markets will undoubtedly cheer any indication of further monetization or a formal announcement itself with a flurry of high-frequency trading activity, this is nothing for Mr. and Mrs. Main Street to get too excited about. Why? The idea that money is being pumped into the economy sounds pretty good especially if some of it lands in your lap, right? Once again, things are not always what they seem and this is another prime example.
Friday, September 07, 2012
U.S. Economic Report Card / Economics / US Economy
By: Richard_Mills
Let's ask ourselves two simple questions;
- How do economists, and Federal Reserve chief Ben Bernanke is an economist, discern whether an economy is growing, is vibrant and healthy? Well, for most economists it's a simple number, they use a country's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to measure the state of the economy.
- What's the most important thing for a politician? The answer is getting reelected.
Thursday, September 06, 2012
U.S. Structural Unemployment Trillion Dollar Question / Economics / Unemployment
By: Ian_R_Campbell
Why read: Because it is arguable that the most important questions facing America and its politicians today are:
Tuesday, September 04, 2012
Competing with China, the Real Answers are Never that Simple / Economics / China Economy
By: Money_Morning
Keith Fitz-Gerald writes:Q - The Chinese copy everything. Companies can't make money there, especially lately.
A - That's simply not true. Domestic Chinese companies have made plenty of money. So have foreign companies like McDonalds, ABB, Coke, and even GM, which have been fabulously successful there because they've taken the time to localize their products.
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