Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Wednesday, October 31, 2012
UK Household Debt Deleveraging: Are We There Yet? / Economics / UK Debt
By: Adrian_Ash
Who killed the UK recovery? UK households of course...
Deleveraging, like Hamlet's nothing, is only good or bad when you come to think about it.
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Tuesday, October 30, 2012
Is China's Economic Boom Over / Economics / China Economy
By: InvestmentContrarian
Sasha Cekerevac writes: The strength of the Chinese economy over the past two decades has been nothing short of amazing. Because of this Chinese boom, we’ve seen one nation’s large consumption have a heavy impact on global commodity prices. The Chinese economy also has been a large driving force for lowering inflation levels for Western nations. As Western countries like America import cheaper products, the average consumer can buy a lot more goods for the same price.
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Tuesday, October 30, 2012
The Virtual Economic Recovery Courtesy of Inflation / Economics / Inflation
By: Paul_Craig_Roberts
Since mid-2009 the US has been enjoying a virtual recovery courtesy of a rigged inflation measure that understates inflation. The financial Presstitutes spoon out the government’s propaganda that prices are rising less than 2%. But anyone who purchases food, fuel, medical care or anything else knows that low inflation is no more real that Saddam Hussein’s weapons of mass destruction or Gadhafi’s alleged attacks on Libyan protesters or Iran’s nuclear weapons. Everything is a lie to serve the power-brokers.
Monday, October 29, 2012
Measuring GDP, Economics of Assumptions and Investing in an Uncertain World / Economics / Economic Theory
By: John_Mauldin
“As far as the laws of mathematics refer to reality, they are not certain; and as far as they are certain, they do not refer to reality.” – Albert Einstein
“To trace something unknown back to something known is alleviating, soothing, gratifying and gives moreover a feeling of power. Danger, disquiet, anxiety attend the unknown – the first instinct is to eliminate these distressing states. First principle: any explanation is better than none… The cause-creating drive is thus conditioned and excited by the feeling of fear …"– Friedrich Nietzsche
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Saturday, October 27, 2012
Iran's Hyperinflation: Questions from Tehran / Economics / HyperInflation
By: Steve_H_Hanke
Interview with Steve H. Hanke By: Kourosh Ziabari
Targeted with the biting sanctions of the United States and European Union over its nuclear program, Iran's economy is experiencing difficult and breathtaking days. The import of vital goods, including medicine and foodstuff is being impeded, the energy, insurance, transportation and industrial companies are unable to smoothly do business with their foreign counterparts and their financial transactions have been obstructed and the price of goods increases on a daily basis.
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Friday, October 26, 2012
A New Model for Capitalism - How to Spark an Economic Boom Without Increasing Debt / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The UK and US economies are stagnating whilst much of the euro-zone economies are in the grips of an economic death spiral of ever greater economic austerity in response to ever increasing debt to GDP ratios as economies contract.
The solution as far as the west is concerned has been one of printing money (electronically) to monetize government debt via the bailed out banks which is highly inflationary as the money printing is not backed by any real economic activity and hence continues to drive an exponential inflation mega-trend resulting in real terms loss of purchasing power for all workers and savers.
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Thursday, October 25, 2012
U.S. Dollar Hyperinflation by 2014 Says John Williams / Economics / HyperInflation
By: Videos
Economist John Williams says the latest round of “open-ended” QE has set the table for a global “dollar sell-off” and “hyperinflation” no later than 2014. Williams says, “There’s no way the consumer can fuel the economic recovery, and there is no way we’re going to see one in the near future.” Williams predicts, “The Treasury is going to have funding problems, and that means the deficit gets a lot worse.”
Wednesday, October 24, 2012
U.S. Monetary Cliff? Fed Dilemma Will Continue for Many Years / Economics / Money Supply
By: Axel_Merk
As the presidential election is rapidly approaching, little attention seems to be getting paid to the question that may affect voters the most: what will happen to the “easy money” policy? Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Bernanke’s current term will expire in January 2014 and Republican candidate Mitt Romney has vowed that if elected, he would replace Bernanke. Given the tremendous amount of money the Fed has “printed” and the commitment to keep interest rates low until mid-2015, the election may impact everything from mortgage costs to the cost of financing the U.S. debt. Trillions are at stake, as well as the fate of the U.S. dollar.
Wednesday, October 24, 2012
Inexorable Money Supply Growth / Economics / Money Supply
By: Michael_Pento
The economies of Southern Europe continue to experience extreme duress. For example, the bad loans of Spanish banks jumped to 10.5% in August, which is up 17 straight months and has increased from just .72% at the end of 2007. However, the answer provided by governments and central banks to propel the economy is to create more of the same condition that brought about the problems in the first place. That is, to increase the level of base money in the hopes of increasing the rate of broad money supply growth and inflation. But despite the fact that inflation is already growing at 2.6% in the Eurozone, Mario Draghi is still promising to do whatever it takes to dilute the Euro’s purchasing power and create more inflation.
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Wednesday, October 24, 2012
Japan Is Not A Good Example Of How Deflation Typically Plays Out / Economics / Deflation
By: Nicole_Foss
Japan is not a good example of how deflation typically plays out. As Ilargi points out, they were an exporting powerhouse exporting into the biggest consumption boom the world has ever seen. They also had a very large pile of money to burn through building their four lane highways from nowhere to nowhere, since they were the world's largest creditor when their bubble burst in 1989. This is clearly not our situation.
Wednesday, October 24, 2012
Austerity Problems, Fiscal Cliff Perils, U.S. Election it's the Economy Stupid! / Economics / US Economy
By: John_Mauldin
“Spain is not Greece” – Elena Salgado, Spanish Finance Minister, February 2010
“Portugal is not Greece” – The Economist, April 2010
“Greece is not Ireland” – George Papaconstantinou, Greek Finance Minister, November 2010
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Tuesday, October 23, 2012
Why Estonia Is Beating the Eurozone Economy / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Frank_Shostak
Against the background of a severe economic crisis in the eurozone, one is surprised to find a member of the euro area that is actually showing good economic performance. This member is Estonia. In terms of so-called real gross domestic product (GDP) the average yearly rate of growth in Estonia stood at 8.4 percent in 2011 against overall eurozone performance of 1.5 percent. So far in 2012 the average yearly growth stood at 2.8 percent in Estonia versus -0.2 percent in the eurozone.
Monday, October 22, 2012
Iran's Hyperinflation Economic Death Spiral / Economics / HyperInflation
By: Steve_H_Hanke
My October 2009 Globe Asia column was titled "Iran's Death Spiral." In light of the recent events that have transpired in Iran, I think I might have been onto something back in 2009.
Since early September, there has been an accelerated slide in the value of the Iranian rial. This slide has been punctuated by dramatic collapses in the demand for the rial. With each collapse, there has been something akin to a "bank run" on rials — with a sharp rise in the black market (read: free market) IRR/USD exchange rate (see the accompanying chart). Ironically, Iranians are clamoring for U.S. Dollars.
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Sunday, October 21, 2012
The Recipe For U.S. Hyperinflation, Looming Dollar Collapse / Economics / HyperInflation
By: Graham_Summers
For the last year, I’ve steered clear of commenting on the US Presidential election for the simple reason that I wanted us to be closer to the actual date before I went through the process of explaining what’s to come.
The reason for this is that elections by their very nature are conflicting processes. Most people vote based on emotions when we are in fact electing someone to fulfill a role that is economic in nature.
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Saturday, October 20, 2012
QE3 and Coming Economic Crash / Economics / Financial Crash
By: EWI
Why monetarist theory is flawed
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke really means it this time.
He will rescue the economy.
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Saturday, October 20, 2012
The Growth Recession, Can the Fed Create Demand? / Economics / Economic Theory
By: John_Mauldin
The Hoisington Quarterly Review and Outlook is one of the cornerstones of my reading on where the economy is headed. Van Hoisington and Lacy Hunt do a masterful job of turning data points into cogent, well-argued themes.
This month they waste no time in dissecting the Fed’s recent move to QE3 and similar efforts in Europe, arriving at the conclusion that “While prices for risk assets have improved, governments have not been able to address underlying debt imbalances. Thus, nothing suggests that these latest actions do anything to change the extreme over-indebtedness of major global economies.”
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Saturday, October 20, 2012
Remember The BRICs? / Economics / Emerging Markets
By: Andrew_McKillop
A now nicely mythologised theme for government-friendly, politically-correct good news suppliers such as The Economist or Financial Times, and related propaganda outlets, is that the BRICs (Brazil, Russia, India, China) can still save us.
The term was coined by Goldman economist Jim O'Neill in November 2001, possibly to cheer us all up after the September 11th street theatre events staged in New York and Washington.
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Friday, October 19, 2012
Halloween And The Ghost Economy / Economics / US Economy
By: Andrew_McKillop
Ghost cities in China, ghost racetracks in Greece, ghost jobs and growth in America: Halloween is coming right on time. However, in the now intensely mythologized Euro Crisis, even the ghost of terminal crisis seems to be dying. Today, the Eurozone is running a bigger and bigger capital surplus simply because the economy collapsed. With it, there are impressive falls in imports of Donald Duck flashlights and other stuff from China. Even black oil imports from friendly Russia and Arab countries are declining: most recent YOY data for motor fuel demand in the Eurozone-17 group shows about 6.5% decline. Trade deficits can only decline - as in the USA.
Thursday, October 18, 2012
Bernanke's QE3 Bubble - the Coming Economic Deflationary Crash / Economics / Deflation
By: EWI
Why monetarist theory is flawed
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke really means it this time.
He will rescue the economy.
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Thursday, October 18, 2012
China’s Economy Slowing Down as Power Output Drops to Four-Month Low / Economics / China Economy
By: Mike_Shedlock
A rally in Asia is underway this morning as Wen Jiabao, China’s premier is upbeat on China’s economy
Wen Jiabao, China’s premier, has given his most optimistic assessment of the Chinese economy since the start of the year, saying that it had stabilised and that the government’s target of 7.5 per cent annual growth was well within reach.