Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Tuesday, November 20, 2012
Student Loans, the Next Debt Bubble / Economics / Global Debt Crisis 2012
By: John_Mauldin
For the last year, as I travel around, it seems a main topic of conversation is “Where will my kids find jobs?” It is a topic I am all too familiar with. Where indeed? Youth unemployment in the US is 17.1%. If you are in Europe the problem is even more pronounced. The basket case that is Greece has youth unemployment of 58%, and Spain is close at 55%. Portugal is at 36% and in Italy it’s 35%. France is over 25%. Is this just a cyclical symptom of the credit crisis? Much of it clearly is, but I think there is something deeper at work here, an underlying tectonic shift in the foundation of employment. And that means that before we see a true recovery in the unemployment rate, there must be a shift in how we think about work and training for the future of employment. This week is the first of what will be occasional letters over the coming months with an emphasis on employment. (This letter will print a little longer, as there are a lot of charts.)
Monday, November 19, 2012
U.S. Recession Forecast 2013 / Economics / Recession 2013
By: Money_Morning
Martin Hutchinson writes:
Everyone is worried about the damage the "fiscal cliff" might do to the U.S. economy in 2013, but the reality is that's only one of the potential problems in our 2013 U.S. Economic Forecast.
At present there appears to be four problems-- aside from the fiscal cliff-- that could throw the U.S. economy into recession in 2013.
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Monday, November 19, 2012
Bulgaria Hyperinflation Fifteen Years Later / Economics / HyperInflation
By: Steve_H_Hanke
The first of July marked the anniversary of a momentous day in Bulgarian history. On that day, fifteen years ago, Bulgaria installed its currency board system (CBS), finally ending its hyperinflation, which had peaked with a monthly inflation rate of 242%, in February 1997.
But, I am getting ahead of myself. As the Soviet Union and allied communist countries began to collapse, I anticipated that a big issue facing the newly-liberated, former communist countries would be inflation, and the instability associated with it. In consequence, I shifted the emphasis of my research program from privatization to currency reform.
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Saturday, November 17, 2012
Hurricane Sandy and the Economy: The Lesson from Katrina / Economics / US Economy
By: PhilStockWorld
Doug Short writes: In studying the data for my latest Big Four Economic Indicators update, I wondered how much impact Hurricane Sandy might have had on the economy in October and what to expect in the months ahead. I thought it would be interesting to take a close look at the behavior of the Big Four in the months before and after Hurricane Katrina hit the coast in August 2005.
Friday, November 16, 2012
The Fall Of Micro- And Macro- Economics And The Rise Of Mega-Economics / Economics / Great Depression II
By: Dr_R_M_Mathew
The Opening Note
This is the second part of my recent work, appeared in the Market Oracle (UK), ‘The Great Depression II Lasting Till 2025’ (www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article37335.html) . In spite of the Stimulus Packages of America, European Countries , India , China and etc besides the brain storming sessions of the World Economic Forum, deliberations of the UN, IMF. OECD and World Bank and lecturing of the Nobel Laureates in Economics and advices of the Management Gurus, the teaching and research works of the Harvard or Stanford Business Schools, the world is at the grip of the Great Depression II Lasting at least 2025. This is an inquiry in to the underlying causes of the Global Economic Crisis and Failure of Economists, Management Experts and Rulers and Political Leadership. It also suggests some alterative global strategies under ‘Mega Economics’ in stead of the familiar Micro and Macro Economics, including Keynesian Economics.
Thursday, November 15, 2012
Why Governments Always Punt on Economic Austerity / Economics / Economic Austerity
By: Michael_Pento
The simple reason why governments never freely decide on fiscal responsibility is because fixing their well-entrenched problems of over borrowing and spending means that their already fragile economies would be temporarily thrown over a cliff.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, November 13, 2012
UK CPI Inflation Soars Despite Bank of England Deflation Propaganda, Shocks Academic Economists / Economics / Inflation
By: Nadeem_Walayat
UK CPI inflation soared for October by rising to 2.7% up from 2.2% (Sept) which is set against academic economists / mainstream press expectations for a rise to just 2.3%. Whilst the more recognised inflation measure, RPI rose to 3.2% up from 2.6%, against press expectations of 2.8%.
Tuesday, November 13, 2012
An Economic 'Sell' Signal by Christmas? / Economics / Recession 2013
By: Clif_Droke
With the U.S. presidential election out of the way, the economy has taken center stage lately and for good reason: the economy typically benefits during a presidential election year while the 4-year Kress cycle is also peaking. The latest economic reports strongly indicate that the U.S. consumer has benefited (or at least feels he has benefited) from this year's presidential cycle and the loose money it typically brings.
Monday, November 12, 2012
Green Shoots of a US Economic Recovery? / Economics / US Economy
By: Alasdair_Macleod
There is growing hope in some quarters that economic recovery is at last under way in the USA. Is this just an election-inspired pick-up in sentiment, now rapidly vanishing, or do we take it more seriously; and if it really is recovery, what are the inflationary consequences?
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Sunday, November 11, 2012
The Tragedy Of The Euro! What About Germany? / Economics / Eurozone Debt Crisis
By: GoldSilverWorlds
Brecht Arnaert writes: 2012 has been a year of great turmoil for the euro. But our economy is not the only thing that is in crisis. Our economic theory is too, and even more so: for decades macro-economic policy has been conducted within a Keynesian framework, and while no Keynesian economist has predicted this crisis, or even is able to explain it’s causes, we are still listening to them today to get out of the mess they brought us into. I would say that this is a problem of legitimacy.
Sunday, November 11, 2012
Obama, Romney And The Deflation Fireball / Economics / Deflation
By: Andrew_McKillop
OBAMECONOMICS, MORMONOMICS: SAME THING
US voters rallied to the lesser of two evils or two Also Rans, and voted Obama. His economic style, the house style of all OECD country governors and far beyond, was attacked by the leading Mormon business writer and Romney supporter, Howard Ruff, as "Obameconomics". Who won in the election however had no importance - or hold on what happens next, as financial and commodity market operators have already signalled, in their own easy-to-deny way. Oil prices and European equities in a widening number of "most exposed" countries went on weakening, as the Obama victory news came in, with several indexes now at six-week lows, as Fitch Ratings and leading commentators again warned the US could re-enter open and frank recession if it fails to "manage" the so-called fiscal cliff and if China slows more, the UK economy turn further downward, French industrial production and business confidence shrinks further, and German industrial output continues to weaken.
Saturday, November 10, 2012
EU Game Changer: Economic Austerity Hits The Core / Economics / Economic Austerity
By: Raul_I_Meijer
Here's what may be a useful angle to explain to people what is happening in Europe right now, and what's yet to come. It's not about Greece, which shoved another "Deal" through its besieged parliament this week, a deal that itself is also still under siege. It's not about Spain either, which managed to borrow a few billon more, enough to stay alive till Christmas, but sees its bond yields enter the land of ugly (yawn) again.
Friday, November 09, 2012
Zimbabwe’s Four-Year Anniversary—From Hyperinflation to Growth / Economics / HyperInflation
By: Steve_H_Hanke
In mid-November 2008, Zimbabwe recorded the world’s second-highest hyperinflation. Today, it can boast strong growth and single-digit inflation rates. In 2008, Zimbabwe’s annual real GDP growth rate was a miserable -17.6 percent and its annual inflation rate was 89.7 sextillion percent—that’s roughly 9 followed by 22 zeros.
Friday, November 09, 2012
America's Double Trouble and The Reckoning, U.S. Debt Higher than Greece / Economics / US Debt
By: Andy_Sutton
Now that the untold billions have been spent trying to convince America that our leaders actually know what they’re doing, they’re going to get put to an early test, and a critical one at that. Looming large are two big issues: the debt ceiling (again), and the ‘fiscal cliff’ automatic budget cuts. While they may seem like two separate issues, it all really ties together rather nicely into one big package that can be loosely labeled as yet another attempt to spend more than is brought in and at the same time justify it. The good news is that the players are the same so the egos are the same and we can use that as barometer based on how they ‘handled’ the situation in 2010. The bad news is the egos are the same and they did a pitiful job in 2010, opting to simply kick the can down the road as opposed to actually embarking on any meaningful reform pathway.
Friday, November 09, 2012
Obama Election Win Means Big Inflation is Coming, Investor Refuge in Gold and Silver / Economics / Inflation
By: Zeal_LLC
Well, Americans voted and the winner is inflation. Half our voting populace inexplicably decided to award a second term to Obama. Four more years of mind-boggling record deficits and record national debt growth! Obama’s Administration spent roughly 50% more than the government took in, which can essentially only be financed in two ways. Borrowing from foreigners and running the printing presses.
Friday, November 09, 2012
Can President Obama Really Help the U.S. Economy? / Economics / US Economy
By: InvestmentContrarian
Sasha Cekerevac writes: When it comes to the latest presidential election, the central focus for many U.S. citizens has been the lack of gross domestic product (GDP) growth for America. Since the Great Recession began several years ago, GDP growth has remained far below potential, leaving millions of people unemployed and looking for work. During this time, the global economy has also slowed. While President Barack Obama has made large claims about what he can do to help increase GDP growth, let’s take a look at the most likely scenario.
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Friday, November 09, 2012
When is a Good Time for Economic Austerity? / Economics / Economic Austerity
By: Michael_Pento
It is a basic rule of human nature not to voluntarily self inflict pain upon ourselves. If there is any way to avoid the day of reckoning, even if it means the eventual catastrophe will be much worse if we delay, we always choose to hold reality in abeyance. This principle applies to countries as well because the notion of embracing austerity on a national level goes against the grain of our collective psyche.
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Friday, November 09, 2012
Canada to Follow U.S. Into 'Fiscal Cliff' Recession / Economics / Canada
By: Ian_R_Campbell
Jim Flaherty, Canada's Finance Minister, is reported as having said yesterday that if the America hits the so-called fiscal cliff on December 31 Canada will follow the U.S. into recession.
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Wednesday, November 07, 2012
When Infinite Inflation Isn't Enough / Economics / Inflation
By: Peter_Schiff
If no one seems to care that the Titanic is filling with water, why not drill another hole in it? That seems to be the M.O. of the Bernanke Federal Reserve. After the announcement of QE3 (also dubbed "QE Infinity") created yet another round of media chatter about a recovery, the Fed's Open Market Committee has decided to push infinity a little bit further. The latest move involves the rolling over of long-term Treasuries purchased as part of Operation Twist, thereby more than doubling QE3 to a monthly influx of $85 billion in phony money starting in December. I call it "QE3 Plus" - now with more inflation!
Wednesday, November 07, 2012
Why Bernanke Can't Stop The Kress Cycle Deflation Tsunami / Economics / Deflation
By: Clif_Droke
A question that many are asking right now is what impact the Fed's latest monetary policy action will have on the projected deflationary scenario for 2013-14. Specifically, market participants are wondering if the Fed's monetary policy action will prevent deflation from running its course.