Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Friday, November 30, 2012
Turkish Economy, Is Turkey Golden? / Economics / Emerging Markets
By: Steve_H_Hanke
Recently, Moody’s Investors Service took some wind from Turkey’s sails, when it declined to upgrade Turkey’s credit rating to investment grade. Moody’s cited external imbalances, along with slowing domestic growth, as factors in its decision. This move is in sharp contrast to the one Fitch made earlier this month, when it upgraded Turkey to investment grade. Moody’s decision not to upgrade Turkey, and its justification, left me somewhat underwhelmed – given how well the Turkish economy has done in recent years.
Friday, November 30, 2012
In 1929, Deflation Started in Europe Before Overtaking the U.S. / Economics / Deflation
By: EWI
What Happens in Europe Will Not Stay in Europe
More than 1,500 years after the fact, scholars still debate the causes of the Roman Empire's fall.
What historians do agree on is that the crumbling empire's final days were marked by economic contraction, a struggle to fund Rome's routine affairs and excessive debt.
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Thursday, November 29, 2012
France In Big Trouble, EU Just Lost Another Prop / Economics / Eurozone Debt Crisis
By: Graham_Summers
Meanwhile, as Greece continues to distract the markets, France, the other primary prop for the EU besides Germany, is now experiencing an economic contraction on par with that of 2008-2009.
Indeed, France’s September’s auto sales numbers were worse than those of September 2008 (the month Lehman collapsed). The country’s PMI reading is back to April 2009 levels. Even the French Central Bank, which would hold off as long as possible before unveiling bad news, has announced the country will re-enter recession before year-end.
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Wednesday, November 28, 2012
The Fed’s Most Ominous Economic Indicator! / Economics / US Economy
By: Sy_Harding
Fed Chairman Bernanke has been pounding the table publicly and privately, stressing how important it is that Congress reach an agreement preventing the economy from going over the fiscal cliff at year-end. You’ve seen the numbers estimating the impact on the already anemic economy.
Tuesday, November 27, 2012
Economic Impact of Super-Storm Sandy and the Electoral Blues Update / Economics / US Economy
By: CMI
Earlier this month we reviewed the impact of Hurricane Sandy and the presidential election on the shopping behavior of American consumers by comparing this year's behavior with what we had observed during the 2008 election campaign. In both cases we witnessed a significant fall-off in consumer demand that was broadly coincidental with the election:
Tuesday, November 27, 2012
Capital Formation and the Fiscal Cliff, Economic Perception Vs Reality / Economics / Economic Theory
By: John_Mauldin
In today’s economic environment, we often complain about volatility and uncertainty, but there is one thing I think we can be fairly certain of: taxes are going up. I constantly try to impress upon my kids, most of whom are now adults, that ideas and actions have consequences. In today’s letter we will look at some of the consequences of an increase in taxes. Please note that this is different from arguing whether taxes should rise or fall. For all intents and purposes that debate is over. As investors, our job is to deal with reality. We must play the hand we are dealt. Taxation is a complex issue, but let’s see if a few word pictures can help us understand what we face.
Tuesday, November 27, 2012
Age Of Illusionists, Focus on Government Spending and Money Supply / Economics / Money Supply
By: Steve_H_Hanke
Watching Barack Obama and Mitt Romney duel in the presidential campaign should have convinced the spectators that we live in an age of illusionists. Few of the assertions and conjectures thrown around have been subjected to what the political chattering classes deem to be the indignity of factual verification.
Tuesday, November 27, 2012
Economic Deception At The Heart Of The U.S. Fiscal Cliff / Economics / Government Spending
By: Dan_Amerman
Truth Testing The Narrative
Among many politicians and much of the media there is an accepted narrative about deficits, taxes and the so-called "Fiscal Cliff". It goes something like the following:
"The United States is running massive deficits that are bankrupting the country. These deficits are so high because of the Bush era tax cuts.
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Monday, November 26, 2012
Marc Faber Forecasts Keynesian Catastrophe for Global Economy / Economics / Global Economy
By: Videos
Marc Faber in this 47 minute presentation from a few months ago that shows why the world economy is heading for a Keynesian catastrophe and what opportunities are likely to emerge for institutional investors if sovereign debt continues. He assesses the possible impact of social and political unrest in North Africa and the Middle East, and how hedge funds can invest in emerging markets.
Friday, November 23, 2012
Economics Can't Violate the Laws of Physics: Rising Systemic Risk and Multiple Black Swans / Economics / Economic Theory
By: DK_Matai
In the aftermath of the colossal damage caused around the world by extreme weather induced floods, fuel and food shortages, questions are constantly being posed about the improbability of endless growth of human population and over consumption on a planet with finite resources. There are limits to growth and humanity is colliding with them head on. High fuel and food prices and floods caused by climate chaos are all symptomatic of those growth limits.
Thursday, November 22, 2012
Ireland and Iceland : A Tale of Two PIIIGS / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Frank_Shostak
There were a lot of commentaries regarding the Ireland and Iceland 2008–2012 financial crises. Most of the commentaries were confined to the description of the events without addressing the essential causes of the crises. We suggest that providing a detailed description of events cannot be a substitute for economic analysis, which should be based on the essential causes behind a crisis.
Tuesday, November 20, 2012
Student Loans, the Next Debt Bubble / Economics / Global Debt Crisis 2012
By: John_Mauldin
For the last year, as I travel around, it seems a main topic of conversation is “Where will my kids find jobs?” It is a topic I am all too familiar with. Where indeed? Youth unemployment in the US is 17.1%. If you are in Europe the problem is even more pronounced. The basket case that is Greece has youth unemployment of 58%, and Spain is close at 55%. Portugal is at 36% and in Italy it’s 35%. France is over 25%. Is this just a cyclical symptom of the credit crisis? Much of it clearly is, but I think there is something deeper at work here, an underlying tectonic shift in the foundation of employment. And that means that before we see a true recovery in the unemployment rate, there must be a shift in how we think about work and training for the future of employment. This week is the first of what will be occasional letters over the coming months with an emphasis on employment. (This letter will print a little longer, as there are a lot of charts.)
Monday, November 19, 2012
U.S. Recession Forecast 2013 / Economics / Recession 2013
By: Money_Morning
Martin Hutchinson writes:
Everyone is worried about the damage the "fiscal cliff" might do to the U.S. economy in 2013, but the reality is that's only one of the potential problems in our 2013 U.S. Economic Forecast.
At present there appears to be four problems-- aside from the fiscal cliff-- that could throw the U.S. economy into recession in 2013.
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Monday, November 19, 2012
Bulgaria Hyperinflation Fifteen Years Later / Economics / HyperInflation
By: Steve_H_Hanke
The first of July marked the anniversary of a momentous day in Bulgarian history. On that day, fifteen years ago, Bulgaria installed its currency board system (CBS), finally ending its hyperinflation, which had peaked with a monthly inflation rate of 242%, in February 1997.
But, I am getting ahead of myself. As the Soviet Union and allied communist countries began to collapse, I anticipated that a big issue facing the newly-liberated, former communist countries would be inflation, and the instability associated with it. In consequence, I shifted the emphasis of my research program from privatization to currency reform.
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Saturday, November 17, 2012
Hurricane Sandy and the Economy: The Lesson from Katrina / Economics / US Economy
By: PhilStockWorld
Doug Short writes: In studying the data for my latest Big Four Economic Indicators update, I wondered how much impact Hurricane Sandy might have had on the economy in October and what to expect in the months ahead. I thought it would be interesting to take a close look at the behavior of the Big Four in the months before and after Hurricane Katrina hit the coast in August 2005.
Friday, November 16, 2012
The Fall Of Micro- And Macro- Economics And The Rise Of Mega-Economics / Economics / Great Depression II
By: Dr_R_M_Mathew
The Opening Note
This is the second part of my recent work, appeared in the Market Oracle (UK), ‘The Great Depression II Lasting Till 2025’ (www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article37335.html) . In spite of the Stimulus Packages of America, European Countries , India , China and etc besides the brain storming sessions of the World Economic Forum, deliberations of the UN, IMF. OECD and World Bank and lecturing of the Nobel Laureates in Economics and advices of the Management Gurus, the teaching and research works of the Harvard or Stanford Business Schools, the world is at the grip of the Great Depression II Lasting at least 2025. This is an inquiry in to the underlying causes of the Global Economic Crisis and Failure of Economists, Management Experts and Rulers and Political Leadership. It also suggests some alterative global strategies under ‘Mega Economics’ in stead of the familiar Micro and Macro Economics, including Keynesian Economics.
Thursday, November 15, 2012
Why Governments Always Punt on Economic Austerity / Economics / Economic Austerity
By: Michael_Pento
The simple reason why governments never freely decide on fiscal responsibility is because fixing their well-entrenched problems of over borrowing and spending means that their already fragile economies would be temporarily thrown over a cliff.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, November 13, 2012
UK CPI Inflation Soars Despite Bank of England Deflation Propaganda, Shocks Academic Economists / Economics / Inflation
By: Nadeem_Walayat
UK CPI inflation soared for October by rising to 2.7% up from 2.2% (Sept) which is set against academic economists / mainstream press expectations for a rise to just 2.3%. Whilst the more recognised inflation measure, RPI rose to 3.2% up from 2.6%, against press expectations of 2.8%.
Tuesday, November 13, 2012
An Economic 'Sell' Signal by Christmas? / Economics / Recession 2013
By: Clif_Droke
With the U.S. presidential election out of the way, the economy has taken center stage lately and for good reason: the economy typically benefits during a presidential election year while the 4-year Kress cycle is also peaking. The latest economic reports strongly indicate that the U.S. consumer has benefited (or at least feels he has benefited) from this year's presidential cycle and the loose money it typically brings.
Monday, November 12, 2012
Green Shoots of a US Economic Recovery? / Economics / US Economy
By: Alasdair_Macleod
There is growing hope in some quarters that economic recovery is at last under way in the USA. Is this just an election-inspired pick-up in sentiment, now rapidly vanishing, or do we take it more seriously; and if it really is recovery, what are the inflationary consequences?
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