Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Wednesday, February 06, 2013
Hidden Good News Buried in Bad U.S. GDP Economic Data / Economics / US Economy
By: Money_Morning
Martin Hutchinson writes: The markets were hit with an unexpected twist last week. On Wednesday the Bureau of Economic Analysis shocked markets by announcing that U.S. Gross Domestic Product had declined by 0.1% in the fourth quarter.
That marked the first time economic output had fallen since the end of the Great Recession.
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Sunday, February 03, 2013
Debt Delinquancy - Seamless Collapse Economics / Economics / Global Debt Crisis 2013
By: Andrew_McKillop
MAYBE THE MAYANS WERE RIGHT
The New Age mystics told us that the Mayans told them the world would end in Dec 2012, but in reality the world ran out of Mayans an awful long time ago: about 1550 AD. Nearer to us, the world has already run out of credit, more than 5 years ago, or 1800 days back in time from today.
Friday, February 01, 2013
January 2013 Jobs Report: Four Reasons U.S. Unemployment Will Stay High / Economics / Unemployment
By: Money_Morning
Diane Alter writes: The U.S. Labor Department released the January 2013 jobs report Friday, showing the unemployment rate inched upward from 7.8% to 7.9%.
Employers added 157,000 jobs in January, short estimates of 168,000, which would have kept the unemployment rate stable.
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Thursday, January 31, 2013
Paul Krugman May Be the World's Last Flat Earth Keynesian Economist / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Money_Morning
Keith Fitz-Gerald writes: Nobel Prize-winning economist and New York Times columnist Dr. Paul Krugman is at it again.
A favorite of the Keynesian crowd, he claimed earlier this week that fixing the deficit is important but added that "doing it now would be disastrous." He also observed that the 10-year U.S. debt situation isn't really all that bad.
At least he's consistent. I'll give him that.
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Thursday, January 31, 2013
France Is Dead Broke, But At Least Its GDP Came In Positive / Economics / France
By: Raul_I_Meijer
US GDP came out today and it was a stinker: -0.1%. Enter a choir of 10,000 pundits who all figured out that all that bad smell was the result of one thing only: cuts in military spending. That's the sort of thing that tells me - or more correctly: confirms - that the optimism bias has become so strong and infectious it's no longer worth even discussing. And that's before I notice - caveat: I haven't read all the eerily similar comments - that nobody I read bothers to explain by how much military spending has raised US GDP lately. Or to what degree they hope it'll go up again. Soon.
Wednesday, January 30, 2013
Keynes Said: Lets Euthanize The Rentiers, Instead, We Euthanized The Economy / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Andrew_McKillop
In the end notes to his 1936 'General Theory', John Maynard Keynes said that he looked forward to the "Euthanasia of the Rentier", to be replaced by “communal saving by the agency of the state; maintained at a level which will allow the growth of capital up to the point where it ceases to be scarce”.
Wednesday, January 30, 2013
Why There's No Real Inflation - Yet / Economics / Inflation
By: Money_Morning
Martin Hutchinson writes: According to Milton Friedman, "inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon."
If that is true, then you have to wonder where the heck all of the inflation is.
Every central bank in the Western world is holding interest rates down, and almost all of them are printing money like it's going out of style.
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Wednesday, January 30, 2013
Nanny Society - Loser Economy / Economics / Government Spending
By: Andrew_McKillop
EPIDEMIC STATUS
Wikipedia defines "the nanny state" as a system or process where governments play the role that a nanny has in child rearing. This could seem good, but as early as 1965 British MP Iain Macleod lashed out at the underside of the nanny state: authoritarian, interfering, overprotective, repressive. Since then, this politically correct mix has taken over in almost all Western states, becoming ever more intense, and is now a sure and certain driver of economic failure. The process is simple: the state "babies" its governed population, but pretends to be aghast at the consequences when it finds out that creating and sustaining a nation of zombies with no interest in creating wealth - only consuming it - is a loser.
Tuesday, January 29, 2013
John Williams Forecasts U.S. Dollar Hyperinflation Before End of 2014 / Economics / HyperInflation
By: Videos
Anybody who thinks the U.S. is in a so-called recovery isn’t listening to economist John Williams. He contends, “We haven’t had a recovery and we’re not about to have one, and it’s getting worse.” Williams says it’s because, “The consumer is in very serious trouble. . . . The average guy is not making it. His income is not keeping up with inflation.” As far as Congress getting the budget and debt ceiling under control, Williams says, “Both sides are faced with devil’s choices.”
Sunday, January 27, 2013
Is China's Economic Miracle Government Sponsored Fraud? / Economics / China Economy
By: Graham_Summers
A few months ago, we asked, “is China an economic miracle or one giant government sponsored fraud?” Our views were the latter with corruption as one of the key driving forces for wealth creation and economic growth in China.
Friday, January 25, 2013
Can U.S. Economy Avoid Recession in 2013? / Economics / Recession 2013
By: Money_Morning
Diane Alter writes: The U.S. economy is currently two-for-two in its attempts to skirt recession 2013.
The first came after we narrowly avoided a tumble over the fiscal cliff with a down-to-the-wire deal on New Year's Day. The second came Wednesday with the passage of a three-month extension on raising the debt ceiling.
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Friday, January 25, 2013
High Unemployment Isn’t Just an American Dilemma / Economics / Unemployment
By: InvestmentContrarian
George Leong writes: We have nearly eight percent of Americans pounding the pavement, but it is more likely double that if you count the workers actually unemployed or underemployed. But the problem of high unemployment is not only an ongoing issue in America; it’s a problem that is found in pockets all around the world, from the rust belt in Ohio to the massive manufacturing plants in China.
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Thursday, January 24, 2013
Nouriel Roubini: Financial Tensions Could Lead to Protectionism / Economics / Global Economy
By: Bloomberg
Nouriel Roubini of Roubini Global Economics and Ian Bremmer of Eurasia Group appeared on "Bloomberg Surveillance" today from the World Economic Forum in Davos. Roubini said that "problems are global, but policies are national" and that "coordinating among different countries is going to become increasingly difficult. Political tensions, economic and financial tensions, like currency wars, can lead eventually to protectionism." Video for viewing and embedding here:
Wednesday, January 23, 2013
The Free Money Miracle? / Economics / Economic Theory
By: MISES
Jonathan Goodwin writes: The "Miracle of Wörgl," refers to the story of currency demurrage and the impact it had on the economy of Wörgl, a small town in Austria. For a bill of such currency to retain its face value, the currency holder must pay a regular, periodic payment (a tax) for a stamp or other marking. Wörgl is regularly touted by advocates of demurrage as a successful implementation of such a currency, one designed to encourage velocity due to the incentive to spend it in order to avoid the periodic tax.
The experiment at Wörgl was implemented by the town’s mayor, Michael Unterguggenberger in the midst of the Great Depression. Wörgl, like many towns throughout the world at the time, was suffering from high unemployment and low economic activity. The experiment began on the 31st of July 1932, with the issuing of "Certified Compensation Bills," a form of currency commonly known as Stamp Scrip, or Freigeld. It resulted in a boom in government projects, and a corresponding increase in employment and economic activity not just in the government sector, but throughout the town.
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Tuesday, January 22, 2013
United States on the Verge of an Explosion of Greatness! / Economics / US Economy
By: Bloomberg
David Tepper, founder of Appaloosa Management, told Bloomberg Television's Stephanie Ruhle on "Market Makers" today that he's "going to come out of the closet right now...we are bullish... This country is on the version of just an explosion of greatness. Do you like that? Explosion of greatness."
On how he founded Appaloosa, Tepper said, "after you work on Wall Street it's a choice, would you rather work at McDonald's or on the sell side? I would choose McDonald's. Over the sell side."
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Tuesday, January 22, 2013
Why Investors Need to Look to the Emerging Markets for Growth / Economics / Emerging Markets
By: InvestmentContrarian
George Leong writes: The key to the global economy is a rise in consumer spending. My view is that the emerging markets will continue to be an excellent place to invest some capital, whether it’s the BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India, and China) or the Southeast Asian “Little Tigers,” comprising Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea, and Taiwan. I’m bullish on this area of the world. My reasoning is that the newfound wealth and growing middle class in these markets will drive consumer spending and economic growth.
Monday, January 21, 2013
Confusing Economic Data from China; What’s Really Happening? / Economics / China Economy
By: InvestmentContrarian
Sasha Cekerevac writes: Recently, we have heard and seen some data stating that the Chinese economy is beginning to rebound. Many analysts have started to raise their economic forecast for the Chinese economy in 2013.
One of the difficult aspects when calculating an economic forecast for the Chinese economy is that much of the official data from China are questionable.
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Saturday, January 19, 2013
Corporate Hoarding Of Cash May Soon Become A Big Economic Positive! / Economics / US Economy
By: Sy_Harding
For a number of years politicians and analysts have bemoaned the fact that U.S. corporations were hoarding cash to an unprecedented degree, refusing to invest it for future growth that might have helped the economy recover from the back-to-back recessions of 2001 and 2008. Lagging business investment has continuously been tagged as one of the major factors stifling the economy.
Depending on whose numbers you believe, corporations are sitting on a record $2 trillion to $4 trillion in idle cash, earning only today’s minimal interest.
Saturday, January 19, 2013
US Economy - The Erosion of Growth, Tax Consequences From Gain to Drain / Economics / US Economy
By: John_Mauldin
In their fourth-quarter 2012 Quarterly Review and Outlook – today’s OTB – Lacy Hunt and Van Hoisington spell out the consequences of the so-called American Taxpayer Relief Act, as well as the even more egregiously named Affordable Care Act. They quickly conclude that the real effects of the tax increases on both individual taxpayers and the overall economy will be much greater than media reports have suggested.
One of the more interesting impacts is that many corporations, large and small, borrowed multiple billions of dollars to make early or special dividend payments, or paid 2012 bonuses before the year turned over. This, the authors write, “… will cause the fourth quarter national income and product figures to be dramatically overstated and will provide no guide to the prospects for 2013. However … income should show a sharp decline early in 2013.”
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Friday, January 18, 2013
The Secret Word: Deflation - And the Next Five Years of Financial Turmoil / Economics / Deflation
By: EWI
The following is a sample from Elliott Wave International's new 40-page report, The State of the Global Markets - 2013 Edition: The Most Important Investment Report
You'll Read This Year. This article was originally published in Robert Prechter's July 2012 Elliott Wave Theorist.
In the first five months of 2012, there were 20 times as many Google searches on "inflation" as there were on "deflation." This is down from a ratio of 50 times in June 2008. If any theme has been overdone over the past six years, it is the theme of inevitable inflation if not hyperinflation.
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