Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Thursday, August 22, 2013
Africa: The Next Major Boom-Bust Cycle? / Economics / Africa
By: MISES
Chris Becker writes: As Western economies start to regress in earnest following decades of failed and destructive monetary inflation and debt accumulation, yield-starved investors are allocating real capital to the one industrially untapped continent in the world: Africa. However, we’re not seeing industry moving to Africa to set up shop. Rather, politically-directed capital flowing into the African resources sector is fueling and financing the strongest consumer boom in the world. It’s a vendor financing model for Asia, and it portends a major boom and bust cycle for the African continental economy.
Thursday, August 22, 2013
China's Unprecedented Demographic Time Bomb Problem Takes Shape / Economics / Demographics
By: STRATFOR
Chinese society is on the verge of a structural transformation even more profound than the long and painful project of economic rebalancing, which the Communist Party is anxiously beginning to undertake. China's population is aging more rapidly than it is getting rich, giving rise to a great demographic imbalance with important implications for the Party's efforts to transform the Chinese economy and preserve its own power in the coming decade.
Wednesday, August 21, 2013
Inflation - Deflation Confusion, Financial Reality Hidden By Commonly Used Theory and Jargon / Economics / Inflation
By: Dan_Amerman
As we will explore in this analysis, when we look at two of the largest sources of net worth in the United States – housing and stocks – then what history shows us is that for 22 out of the 40 years between 1972 and 2012, much of the truth about financial performance has been almost invisible to people who have been relying on the most commonly used definitions for inflation and deflation.
That is, most people phrase the question as being one of either a) inflation, or b) deflation, meaning it has to be one or the other and obviously can't be both together. As we will explore using simple to follow, round number examples, taking this seemingly common sense approach leaves us unable to distinguish between a 20% gain, a 20% loss and a 94% loss.
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Wednesday, August 21, 2013
Indian Rupee 20% Crash, Another 1997 Asian Financial Crisis? / Economics / Asian Economies
By: Sam_Chee_Kong
I don't know whether you recalled how the last Asian Financial Crisis in 1997-98 affected us all. Our stock market dropped from 1385 to 295 points while our ringgit went down to as low as RM4.80 to the dollar. At the height of the crisis our interest rates went up to as high as 18%. After a break of 15 years are we going to see the same scenario again? I do not know the answer but one thing for sure is that it does have some resemblances such as depreciating currencies and interest rates hike across the region. The last time the Financial Crisis was started in Thailand and this time I reckon it will be in India.
Tuesday, August 20, 2013
Doing Business, Singapore Style / Economics / Asian Economies
By: Steve_H_Hanke
Since 2004, the World Bank has produced the annual Doing Business report, which ranks countries on ten factors reflecting the ease with which entrepreneurs and businesses may conduct economic activity in a given country.
At first glance, such a survey would hardly seem controversial. After all, with so much unreliable data coming out of official government statistics offices these days, one would think that an unbiased system for ranking the ease of doing business would be a useful tool — not only for businesses, but for governments as well. Indeed, since 2005, a total of 1,940 reforms have been implemented by countries to improve their rankings. And, several prominent heads of state, such as Russia’s Valdimir Putin have made public pledges to improve their countries’ Doing Business rankings.
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Tuesday, August 20, 2013
The GDP Economic Growth Distractor / Economics / Economic Statistics
By: Peter_Schiff
Albert Einstein, a man who knew a thing or two about celestial mechanics, supposedly once called compound interest "the most powerful force in the universe." While the remark was likely meant to be funny (astrophysicists can be hilarious), it sheds light on the often overlooked fact that small changes, over time, can yield enormous results. Over eons, small creeks can carve large canyons through solid rock. The same phenomenon may be at work in our economy. A minor, but persistent under bias in the inflation gauge used in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) may have created a wildly distorted picture of our economic health.
Saturday, August 17, 2013
Russian Economy to Fall into Abyss? / Economics / Russia
By: Pravda
Experts are debating whether Russia's economy has slipped into a recession or whether it is "safely" stagnant. The difference between stagnation and recession is of insignificant technical nature. However, the dispute over the terminology also has a political dimension, and for that reason it was joined but such heavyweights as Alexei Ulyukayev, the Economic Development Minister, who argues that the economy is stagnating.
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Saturday, August 17, 2013
China's Fraudulent Inflation and GDP Economic Data / Economics / Economic Statistics
By: Mike_Shedlock
It's easy to make a case that GDP data everywhere is fraudulent because of the definition which includes government deficit spending, regardless of how ridiculous or useless the spending is. However, China takes the distortions to a level well beyond other countries.
Thursday, August 15, 2013
U.S. Economy Set to Continue Grinding Higher / Economics / US Economy
By: DailyWealth
Dr. David Eifrig writes: For the past year, I've been carefully watching for signs of trouble...
The two biggest potential sources of trouble – the two big concerns I hear from investors – are:
Wednesday, August 14, 2013
Economic Consquences of Climate Change - The New Normal / Economics / Climate Change
By: John_Mauldin
Everybody talks about the weather, but there's not much we can do about it except make plans that take into account what mother nature may throw at us. For most of us that means planning for the next few days, but we should all be aware of climate patterns that are going to affect us for the next 20 to 30 years. And those patterns are changing not just because of global climate change but also due to long-term periodic changes in the Atlantic and Pacific oceans.
Tuesday, August 13, 2013
Abenomics And The Fukushima Syndrome / Economics / Japan Economy
By: Andrew_McKillop
MIXED BAG - ONE MESSAGE
News media reported August 8 that Japan's Shinzo Abe “....made an unlikely companion with environment protection campaigner Greenpeace as both indicated Tokyo Electric Power Co. (Tepco) isn’t up to the task of containing the Fukushima nuclear disaster”. As media has reported on an extensive scale, Tepco's crippled nuclear plan is gushing about 300 tons-a-day of highly radioactive groundwater into the Pacific – while holidaymakers and fishermen enjoy a day out by the seaside in view of the plant! As some media also reported, the Fukushima plant has an increasing risk of simply exploding from pent-up heat released by hard-to-access molten radioactive fuel and equipment.
Tuesday, August 13, 2013
The Best Way to Ignite the U.S. Economy / Economics / Economic Stimulus
By: Money_Morning
Shah Gilani writes: The problem with the U.S. government's stimulus efforts to create jobs, and the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing to foster full employment, is that banks are the only direct beneficiaries.
There's just no good pool of jobs being formed from the trickle-down effect that first bathes bankers in bonuses, and then showers shareholders with buybacks and dividends.
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Monday, August 12, 2013
Obamacare, Stimulus, and Other Economic Disasters / Economics / Government Intervention
By: David_Gordon
John Lott is best known to the public for his outstanding analysis of gun control legislation, but his research as an economist extends far beyond that topic; and he here gives us a devastating account that covers the full range of the Obama Administration’s economic policy.
Readers stirred to anger by the simpleminded statism of Paul Krugman will be delighted by Lott’s demolition of several of his claims. To those who urge that high taxes on the wealthy discourage investment, to the disadvantage of us all, Krugman often recalls the palmary era of the 1950s. Did we not then see very high tax rates together with high rates of economic growth? “In the 1950s incomes in the top bracket faced a marginal tax rate of 91, that’s right, 91 percent, while taxes on corporate profits were twice as large, relative to national income, as in recent years.” (p. 200, quoting Krugman)
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Monday, August 12, 2013
The Cult Of Economic Propaganda / Economics / Economic Statistics
By: Andrew_McKillop
COMPULSIVE LYING
Modern economic communication can be called a degenerate art. For the Nazi regime 'entartete Kunst' meant degenerate art and described virtually all modern art – which was banned as anti-German. Today, economic propaganda has reached a high point of degeneracy, falsifying all and any information with a very simple goal. The information available to anybody – whether specialists or ordinary citizens – is no longer sure. Consequently we do not know what is really happening, but more important, almost nobody cares. This is one key goal of any propaganda campaign – to produce a confused, disoriented, fearful and childish-minded public craving for reassurance.
Saturday, August 10, 2013
The Half Full U.S. Economy / Economics / US Economy
By: Peter_Schiff
The marginal economic strength that was described in the most recent GDP release from Washington has caused many to double down on their belief that the Federal Reserve will begin tapering Quantitative Easing sometime later this year. While I believe that is a fantasy given our economy's extreme dependence on QE, market observers should have learned long ago that the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) initial GDP estimates can't be trusted. A perusal of their subsequent GDP revisions in the last five years reveals a clear trend: They are almost twice as likely to revise initial estimates down rather than up, and the downward adjustments have been much larger on average.
Friday, August 09, 2013
Fingers of Instability - Developed World Centrally Planned Socialist Economies Continue to Fail / Economics / US Economy
By: Ty_Andros
"In the blink of an eye this week, they made the size of the American economy grow by $560 billion." This is but the latest addition to PHANTOM growth to cover up gross mismanagement of the economy by Washington DC (District of Corruption). A few of the items of NEW growth created out of thin air include double counting of R&D spending which is ALREADY contained in final sales numbers, another is unfunded pension obligations are now called PAID wages. A report of growth is nothing but an apparition (ghost). When socialists can’t get the economy to grow they rely on doublespeak and newspeak for the masses. Look at an illustration of what the new phantom growth has done to the record books courtesy of Lance Roberts (www.streettalklive.com, I highly recommend this newsletter):
Friday, August 09, 2013
A Monetary Master Explains Inflation / Economics / Inflation
By: Terry_Coxon
[Ed. note: One of the best things about being a partner in a research firm employing about 40 analysts is that I have unfettered access to really smart people. While we have a great team with expertise across the spectrum, when it comes to monetary matters, my go-to guy is Terry Coxon, a senior editor for our flagship publication, The Casey Report.
Thursday, August 08, 2013
The Part Time-ification of America: How We've Been Conned Again / Economics / Employment
By: Money_Morning
Keith Fitz-Gerald writes: By now, you've had a few days to digest the "wonderful" jobs numbers reported from Washington last Friday.
Well, don't get too excited about the economy. We've been conned again.
First off, 59% of all jobs created this year are in 3 sectors: Leisure/Hospitality, Retail Trade and Administrative/Waste Services. Wages in those sectors have fallen by 0.7%. These jobs pay an average of $15.80 per hour versus the $23.98 average hourly wage. Which means "jobs creation" just equals cheaper labor.
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Thursday, August 08, 2013
U.S.Demographic Trends and Economic GDP Growth / Economics / Demographics
By: John_Mauldin
For today's Outside the Box we have a very special research piece by Rob Arnott of Research Associates and his colleague Denis Chaves. Rob was with us at Leen's Lodge last week, and in the final evening discussion session he asked an interesting question having to do with demography and GDP growth. I was intrigued by it, but the group soon moved on without fully exploring Rob's idea; so I mentioned it to him again later, and he was good enough to send along the following paper.
Monday, August 05, 2013
If the U.S. Economy is Recovering… Why Is Nominal GDP in a Recession? / Economics / Recession 2013
By: Graham_Summers
The financial world is abuzz with the unexpected jump higher in our manufacturing and non-ISM(s). The world seems to think these two jumps are the result of the US economy suddenly getting back on track.
The whole thing smacks of political games. Is it really coincidence that the scandal-ridden Obama administration suddenly decided to focus on the economy (again) and the official economic data starts improving the next week?
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