Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Sunday, May 04, 2014
A Stampede Of Elephants In The China Shop - The Chinese Shadow Banking System / Economics / China Credit Crisis
By: Raul_I_Meijer
I’m going to take a number of different sources to paint a portrait of China. I’ll take a great series of numbers from Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, whose analysis we can all do without, and leave the analysis up to David Stockman, who goes a long way but, in my proverbial humble view, seems to be stumbling a bit towards the end. That is to say, as I’ve written before, when I look at China these days, I see a bare and basic battle for raw power, economic as well as political power, between the Chinese government and the shadow banking system it has allowed, if not encouraged, to establish and flourish, and which now has grown into a threat to the central state control that is the only model Beijing has ever either understood or been willing to apply.
Sunday, May 04, 2014
Inside the Latest U.S. Jobs Report - Nonfarm Payrolls +288,000, Unemployment Rate Drops to 6.3%... / Economics / Employment
By: Mike_Shedlock
Initial Reaction
This month sported another amazing difference between the household survey and the payroll survey. The difference is so vast that looking at the numbers in isolation, one might think the results were from two different countries.
The headline number from the payroll survey beat expectations by a mile with 288,000 jobs, but beneath the surface, the household survey shows employment declined by 73,000.
Saturday, May 03, 2014
Gerald Celente Finally Gives a Date for U.S. Economic Collapse / Economics / US Economy
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Gerald Celente, a popular gloom and doom blogger and publisher of the TR Journal finally gives a date for the always coming economic collapse that I must have been hearing about for 5 years now.
WLW Radio - 30th April 2014
"Your predicting an economic collapse, when do you think that is going to happen Gerald?"
"I am going to say by the end of the second quarter." - Gerald Celente
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Friday, May 02, 2014
The Upcoming Dawn of the 60-Year Inflation Cycle / Economics / Inflation
By: Clif_Droke
The latest action by the Federal Reserve is part of a policy shift, the most important one in fact of the last five years. The Fed's plan for unwinding its quantitative easing (QE) stimulus coincides with the bottom of the 60-year cycle of inflation/deflation. It couldn't be happening at a better time and the results will be either very positive or extremely negative, depending on where you stand when the smoke clears.
Friday, May 02, 2014
Non-Farm Friday – U.S. Economy Is Not Working / Economics / Employment
By: PhilStockWorld
When is a job not a job?
When the job sucks! We've all had crappy jobs in our lives – something we stay in to pay the bills but has no chance of being a career. As you can see from the chart on the right, a lot of career Government jobs have disappeared over the past 4 years – the kind of jobs that held advancement and retirement and health benefits.
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Friday, May 02, 2014
Stagflation and the Credit Cycle / Economics / Stagflation
By: Alasdair_Macleod
Stagflation: When the general level of prices rises due to the purchasing power of currency-money falling, instead of price inflation due to a general increase in demand.
The credit cycle that normally drives advanced economies through boom and bust is turning out to be different this time round. The boom between the Lehman bust and the one yet to come never got going, because of very high levels of existing debt. This condition will almost certainly lead to stagflation.
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Friday, May 02, 2014
Is China Economy Cracking? / Economics / China Economy
By: Investment_U
Sean Brodrick writes: Signs of a near-term slowdown in the Chinese economy are apparent. And China's economy is so large and intricate that any slowdown there could have a big impact on investors here in the U.S.
In particular, I'm concerned about:
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Wednesday, April 30, 2014
Europe and Deflation Paranoia / Economics / Deflation
By: Frank_Hollenbeck
There is a current incessant flow of articles warning us of the certain economic calamity if deflation is allowed to show its nose for even the briefest period of time. This ogre of deflation, we are told, must be defeated with the printing presses at all costs. Of course, the real objective of this fear mongering is to enable continued government theft through debasement. Every dollar printed is a government tax on cash balances.
Wednesday, April 30, 2014
The Death of Deflation / Economics / Deflation
By: Clif_Droke
If investors have learned nothing else from the events of the last five years, they’ve at least learned that fighting the Fed doesn’t pay.Indeed, the biggest lesson of all since 2009 is that monetary liquidity is the single biggest determinant of future stock prices. Given a loose enough monetary policy, stock prices will always respond by going higher.
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Tuesday, April 29, 2014
Economists Are Stupid, Useless And Dangerous / Economics / Economists
By: Raul_I_Meijer
Economists are stupid because they have studied economics. Which doesn’t mean they weren’t born stupid, but that’s hardly relevant. Economists are useless because, well, they have studied economics. And economists are dangerous because they have studied economics, and people still listen to them; entire government policies are built around what they say. Now, you may think: isn’t that a bit harsh?, but don’t worry, I have proof.
Monday, April 28, 2014
Roubini: War in Ukraine Could Tip Europe Back into Recession / Economics / Global Economy
By: Bloomberg
In an interview with Bloomberg's Erik Schatzker and Stephanie Ruhle at the Milken Institute conference in Los Angeles, California, Nouriel "Dr. Doom" Roubini said, war in Ukraine could tip 'fragile' and 'uneven' Europe back into a recession, " I would say the last thing that the eurozone can afford and need right now is another shock coming from an increase in gas prices and or even a cut off of supply of gas coming from Russia to the Western European economies. That would tip the European economies back into a recession if that were to occur."
Wednesday, April 23, 2014
Killing the Maximum-Wage Myth / Economics / Wages
By: MISES
Julian Adorney writes: As Bill Maher indicates, the issue of a maximum wage is one that simply will not go away. The comedian and liberal pundit recently expressed support for a maximum wage of $300,000, arguing that wages for the bottom 90 percent of Americans stagnated while worker productivity rose. Greedy executives, in Maher’s scenario, are robbing the worker and seizing more than their fair share.
Wednesday, April 23, 2014
U.S. Quarterly Economic Review - Optimism at the Fed / Economics / US Economy
By: John_Mauldin
In today’s Outside the Box, Lacy Hunt and Van Hoisington of Hoisington Investment have the temerity to point out that since the Great Recession officially ended in 2009, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has been consistently overoptimistic in its projections of US growth. They simply expected QE to be more stimulative than it has been, to the tune of about 6% over the past four years – a total of about $1 trillion that never materialized.
Given that dismal track record, our authors ask why we should believe the Fed’s prediction of 2.9% real GDP growth for 2014 and 3.4% for 2015 – particularly with QE being tapered into nonexistence.
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Friday, April 18, 2014
Cognitive Dissonance on Minimum Wages and Maximum Rents / Economics / Economic Theory
By: MISES
Gary Galles writes: “Many cities are pricey places to live.” That was the opening line and major premise of a recent Los Angeles Times opinion piece advocating that high-cost cities raise minimum wages to mitigate the problem. I was struck by the fact that for years, the exact same basis was used by the same left liberal groups to justify rent controls. Apparently, high costs of living, largely caused by a panoply of government taxes, regulations, and restrictions, justify still more government-imposed coercion in both the labor and housing markets. Unfortunately, those government “solutions” are not only based on flaws in basic economic logic, but they are mutually contradictory.
Friday, April 18, 2014
The Sad State of the Economics Profession / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Frank_Hollenbeck
It is not an exaggeration to say the current reputation of economists is probably just below that of a used car salesman. The recent failures of economic policies to boost growth or employment have tarnished this image even more. This, however, is in sharp contrast to the past when economists were seen as the intellectual roadblock to popular misconceptions, bad ideas, or more importantly, government policies sold to the public on false assumptions. Popular slogans such as “protecting American jobs” play on nationalism, but in reality only serve special interests. The economist of the past would never have hesitated to highlight the fallacies in such reasoning.
Friday, April 18, 2014
More To U.S. Economic Slowdown Than Weather / Economics / US Economy
By: Sy_Harding
The stock market has hung in there so far this year in spite of negative economic reports from December through February that indicated the economy was slowing significantly.
Not that the market continued its winter rally. For 2014 so far, the Dow is down 0.9%, the S&P 500 is up just 0.6%, and the Nasdaq is down 2.2%.
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Thursday, April 17, 2014
Economic Outlook Darkens / Economics / Global Economy
By: Alasdair_Macleod
Many decades of Keynesian-inspired economic and monetary corruption have left advanced economies with a legacy of debt and low savings. In a nutshell, that is the problem which is driving us into another financial crisis. That moment could be drawing upon us, signalled by the recent collapse in bond yields.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, April 15, 2014
Forecasting U.S. GDP Growth: A Look at WSJ Economists’ Collective Crystal Ball / Economics / US Economy
By: PhilStockWorld
Courtesy of Doug Short: One of the big economic numbers this month will be the Q1 Advance Estimate for GDP, due out on April 30th. With this morning’s first glimpse of March Retail Sales now in hand, let’s take a look at Q1 GDP forecasts from the latest Wall street Journal survey of economists conducted earlier this month. For some context, Q4 2013 Real GDP went from 3.2% in the Advance Estimate to 2.4% in the Second Estimate to 2.6% in the Third Estimate. And of course it will be subject to an annual revision in July.
Friday, April 11, 2014
Beware Another U.S. Recession is Lurking / Economics / Recession 2014
By: Clif_Droke
The New Economy Index (NEI) is on the brink of sending its first confirmed “sell” signal in four years. The index is a blend of the leading U.S. retail and business service stocks. NEI is based on the concept that these component stocks are accurate reflections of changes within the real-time U.S. economy (as opposed to the lagging economic statistics favored by the Labor Bureau).
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Thursday, April 10, 2014
For More Jobs and Stability, Set the Economy Free / Economics / Economic Theory
By: MISES
John P. Cochran writes: The headline in the print edition of theDenver Postof an associated press story on the nominationof Janet Yellen highlights a quote from President Obama, “She understands the human cost when people can’t find a job.” This statement about then-new Fed Chair Yellen, which emphasizes Yellen’s Keynesian-based commitment to the unemployment prong of the Fed’s dual mandate, underlies why some economists feared that no matter how bad policy might have been during Bernanke’s tenure, policy is likely to get worse rather than get better from a sound money perspective during a Yellen reign. Her empathy for the unemployed was clearly present in her remarks following her first official policy meeting which as reported by the Wall Street Journal “were a notable affirmation of her commitment to low rates until the economy is much stronger.” She emphasized, “The recovery still feels like a recession to many Americans, and it also looks that way in some economic statistics.” She then chose to support her remarks not with usual econ jargon and statistics, but“Ms. Yellen instead exhibited a personal touch ... by coloring her comments with experiences of three people who had struggled to gain full-time work.”