Friday, October 12, 2018
Trump’s Tariffs Echo US Trade Policy That Led to the Great Depression / Economics / Protectionism
By: John_Mauldin
We all wonder if Trump’s trade actions are as random as they appear or if there is a broader strategy.Some of my contacts argue that the relatively strong US economy allows the administration to take a harder line than would normally be advisable. We can ride out a trade war better than China can, the thinking goes.
This only works if the US economy keeps prospering long enough for the tariffs to make China bend.
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Friday, October 12, 2018
US Dollar Engulfing Bearish Pattern Warns Of Dollar Weakness / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Chris_Vermeulen
A unique setup has occurred in the UUP (Invesco DB US Dollar Index) that resembles an Engulfing Bearish type of pattern (even though it is not technically an Engulfing Bearish pattern). Technically, an Engulfing Bearish pattern should consist of a green candle followed by a larger red candle whereas the red candle’s body (the open to close range) completely engulfs the previous candle’s body. In the instance we are highlighting in this article, a unique variation of what we’ll call a “Completely Filled Engulfing Bearish” pattern is setting up.
Friday, October 12, 2018
Gold Action Does Not Make Sense / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Avi_Gilburt
I have been hearing for years how gold is manipulated to go down, and is expected to rise when allowed to trade freely. So, according to these manipulation theorists, gold is really only supposed to move in one direction and would never see any corrections.
Yes, I know that sounds ridiculous, but this is a perspective in the market. And this is why so many were not able to foresee the correction which began in 2011.
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Friday, October 12, 2018
Stock Market Storm Crash, Dow Plunges to Trend Forecast! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Here's my latest analysis update to my stock market trend forecast for the whole of the remainder of 2018 :
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Thursday, October 11, 2018
Gold GDX Is Being Torn Apart / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2018
By: Avi_Gilburt
Rising interest rates are good for metals. Rising interest rates are bad for metals. We have heard the arguments from both sides. In fact, I think it is no different when people claim inflation is good for gold relative to those who believe deflation is good for gold.
Personally, I don’t think either side is correct, as we have seen periods of time where both sides were seemingly correct. That means we have seen periods of time where both sides were seemingly wrong. So, what does that tell you?
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Thursday, October 11, 2018
SP500 Stock Market Sell Off Well Forecast by President Trump / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: readtheticker
TRUMP said 'we may have to take a hit!. No kidding, with stocks at extreme all time highs, add on the trade wars and you are surely to upset the worlds demand engine (i.e China). Of course you can not change anything with out breaking a few conventions, therefore investors can not be blind to changes in asset prices as president Trump made his intentions very clear. An investor must understand how the markets work, we know algo's work the intra-day market to the upside and after the SP500 95 pt sell off today it looks like they work to the down side. Plus Mr Market wants to find out the level of Powell 'fed put' is. Is it like Mrs Yellen at -10% ? Or is much lower. The things we are about to learn! Maybe the SP500 sell off is the Democrats move against the US president, as he has owned the 2018 rally? If it is President Trump warned all investors on June 4th 2018
Thursday, October 11, 2018
Forget What Phony Government Statistics Say – the "Strong Dollar" Buys Less / Economics / Inflation
By: Dan_Steinbock
Some of last week’s weakness in the stock market was attributed to surprisingly week jobs report on Friday. Non-farm payrolls came in significantly below projections.
However, much of that weakness was explained by Hurricane Florence. nd the headline unemployment rate dropped to 3.7% – the lowest in almost 50 years.
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Thursday, October 11, 2018
The First Casualty of Trade War Is Truth / Politics / Protectionism
By: Dan_Steinbock
As Trump tariffs continue to spread, an ideological war of words is redressing harsh protectionist realities. What is the state of Chinese growth amid the US tariffs? And what is the impact of the trade wars on global economic prospects?Recently, US academic Yasheng Huang argued on Wall Street Journal that “Jack Ma is retiring. Is China’s economy losing steam?” By the same logic, Elon Musk’s forced resignation from Tesla would mean US slowdown.
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Thursday, October 11, 2018
USD and US Tr. Yields Retreat, GBP Gains on Brexit-deal Report / Currencies / Forex Trading
By: C_Pissouros
The dollar traded lower against its major peers on Tuesday as US Treasury yields pulled back after hitting a new high. The pound was among the main gainers, surging after a report noted that the terms of the UK’s exit from the EU could be settled next week.
USD Pulls Back as US Treasury yields Come off Their Highs
The dollar traded lower against all but one of the other G10 currencies on Tuesday. It managed to gain fractionally only against SEK. The main winners against the greenback were NZD, GBP and AUD in that order, while the currency that gained the least was JPY.
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Thursday, October 11, 2018
Loss Of Yield Curve "Shock Absorber" Could Mean A Rough Ride Ahead For Markets & Housing / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: Dan_Amerman
Two important financial cycles are currently converging for the first time in more than ten years, and how they work in combination can provide key information about the future value of our retirement portfolios, the future prices of our homes, and even when the next recession may hit.
A continuing cycle of interest rate increases by the Federal Reserve has pushed Fed Funds rates up 2% from their floor. This same cycle has contributed to rapidly rising long term interest rates, with 10 year Treasury yields rising to 3.22% by the market close on October 5th, 2018.
This sharp surge in interest rates has led not only to falling bond prices, but to tumbling stock prices as well.
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Thursday, October 11, 2018
Just How Bearish is the Stock Market’s Breadth? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Troy_Bombardia
Mainstream financial media is tripping all over itself about “the stock market’s terrible breadth and why the stock market will crash”. Because hey, bad news sells like hot cakes.
*A lot of traders have an obsession with breadth. The reality is simple: with dozens of breadth indicators, there will always be one that screams bearish.
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Thursday, October 11, 2018
“A Loaf Of Bread, A Gallon Of Gas, An Ounce Of Gold” Revisited / Currencies / Inflation
By: Kelsey_Williams
One of the earliest articles I wrote was “A Loaf Of Bread, A Gallon Of Gas, An Ounce Of Gold”. The information contained in the article is basic to a fundamental and accurate understanding of gold.
The convolution and complication of basic fundamentals reigns supreme in almost all analysis of gold. That is unfortunate, because it obscures the simple truth.
The simple truth is that gold is real money. Even that simple truth, however, deserves some further explanation.
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Thursday, October 11, 2018
Transportation Breakdown Hinting to Global Economic Weakness? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Our research team highlighted the recent breakdown in the Transportation Index ($TRAN) as a very strong sign that the global economy and US economy may be starting to show early signs of weakness.
The Transportation Index typically leads the markets by about 3 to 6 months (on average). When we see a big breakdown in the Transportation index, as we’ve seen recently, it immediately raises red flags that one or more component of the global markets may be crashing. At this point in the Seasonal Cycle, one could expect the Transportation Index to rotate lower a bit. Our concern is that global economic factors may be driving China and other markets into much deeper corrections – which could cause the US and other world markets to correct a bit further.
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Thursday, October 11, 2018
SMIGGLE Advent Calendar 2018 UK Contents - A Look Inside! / Personal_Finance / Shopping
By: Anika_Walayat
Thinking of buying the new SMIGGLE advent calendar but wondering exactly what's inside, and is it worth the £25 price tag (discounted to £22.50 in Sheffield). Well wonder no more as we open up TWO SMIGGLE Calendars to see what goodies it contains. Two calendars because we wanted to make sure that the items don't vary from calender to calendar.
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Thursday, October 11, 2018
SMIGGLE Shopping Binge! Pencil Cases, Smigglets and Giant Backpacks Review / Personal_Finance / Shopping
By: Anika_Walayat
Anika and Eliza just can't resist SMIGGLE, so of they went for another shopping trip to the local Smiggle store in Meadowhall, Sheffield, returning with loads of New Smiggle stuff, including pencil cases, rubbers, SMIGLETS and an amazing giant SMIGGLE backpack, about twice the volume of her old SMIGGLE backpack.
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Wednesday, October 10, 2018
Here’s Why Gold Stocks, Gold, and Silver Are Great Buys Now / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2018
By: Frank_Holmes
Welcome to this week’s Market Wrap Podcast, I’m Mike Gleason. Coming up we’ve got a wonderful interview with Frank Holmes, CEO of U.S. Global Investors. Frank talks about some key developments in the gold community and why he believes a key merger in the gold mining industry could be a good indicator of a market bottom. He also shares his thoughts about Vanguard’s recent decision that leaves many gold investors hung out to dry. This is a must-hear interview with Frank Holmes, coming up after this week’s market update.
Precious metals markets struggled this week against the forces of rising bond yields and a stronger U.S. dollar. Where have we heard that before? Despite these headwinds, gold is holding up pretty well as it trades around the $1,200 level in a narrow range where it’s been locked in for the past month.
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Wednesday, October 10, 2018
The Branded US Economy / Economics / US Economy
By: Peter_Schiff
Last week Donald Trump, in his own estimation, succeeded in replacing what he claimed to be the "worst trade deal in history" with what he claims was "the best trade deal in history." If true, this would not only make good on one of his central campaign promises, but it would be a genuinely significant development. In reality, the unveiling of the United States-Mexico-Canada (USMCA) trade deal is just the latest iteration of the President's talent for branding. As is the case in other aspects of the president's view of economic matters, the difference between then and now is almost purely semantic.
Wednesday, October 10, 2018
IPCC Reports a Climate Fit For a Groundhog / Politics / Climate Change
By: Raul_I_Meijer
And there we go again. Another IPCC report, and they all keep getting more alarming than the previous one. And then nothing substantial happens. Until the next report is issued and makes everybody’s headlines for a day, or two. Rinse, spin and repeat. “Now we really have to do something!”. “World leaders have a moral obligation to act!”.
Oh boy. To start with that last bit, world leaders don’t act because of moral obligations. They act to stay in, or get in, power. And they all know that to achieve that goal they must keep their people happy, even if dictators do this differently from ‘democratically elected’ leaders.
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Wednesday, October 10, 2018
Russian Ruble Technical Chart Analysis and Forecast / Currencies / Russia
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Today I am taking a look at the Russian Ruble against the US Dollar that follows a request from a $12 Patron. The Ruble is not a market I monitor so my analysis is limited to a quick technical take.
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Wednesday, October 10, 2018
Oil Price Rally Boosts Electric Car Sales / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
Tesla’s competition is about to get more crowded next year with many legacy automakers and luxury brands launching a record number of battery electric vehicles and plug-in hybrids.
All EV makers will have one common element that could help lift demand for battery vehicles—rising oil prices leading to fuel prices at four-year highs, which could turn consumers towards EVs.
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