Thursday, October 11, 2018

USD and US Tr. Yields Retreat, GBP Gains on Brexit-deal Report / Currencies / Forex Trading

By: C_Pissouros

The dollar traded lower against its major peers on Tuesday as US Treasury yields pulled back after hitting a new high. The pound was among the main gainers, surging after a report noted that the terms of the UK’s exit from the EU could be settled next week.

USD Pulls Back as US Treasury yields Come off Their Highs

The dollar traded lower against all but one of the other G10 currencies on Tuesday. It managed to gain fractionally only against SEK. The main winners against the greenback were NZD, GBP and AUD in that order, while the currency that gained the least was JPY.

Thursday, October 11, 2018

Loss Of Yield Curve "Shock Absorber" Could Mean A Rough Ride Ahead For Markets & Housing / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Dan_Amerman

Two important financial cycles are currently converging for the first time in more than ten years, and how they work in combination can provide key information about the future value of our retirement portfolios, the future prices of our homes, and even when the next recession may hit.

A continuing cycle of interest rate increases by the Federal Reserve has pushed Fed Funds rates up 2% from their floor. This same cycle has contributed to rapidly rising long term interest rates, with 10 year Treasury yields rising to 3.22% by the market close on October 5th, 2018.

This sharp surge in interest rates has led not only to falling bond prices, but to tumbling stock prices as well.

Thursday, October 11, 2018

Just How Bearish is the Stock Market’s Breadth? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Troy_Bombardia

Mainstream financial media is tripping all over itself about “the stock market’s terrible breadth and why the stock market will crash”. Because hey, bad news sells like hot cakes.

*A lot of traders have an obsession with breadth. The reality is simple: with dozens of breadth indicators, there will always be one that screams bearish.

Thursday, October 11, 2018

“A Loaf Of Bread, A Gallon Of Gas, An Ounce Of Gold” Revisited / Currencies / Inflation

By: Kelsey_Williams

One of the earliest articles I wrote was “A Loaf Of Bread, A Gallon Of Gas, An Ounce Of Gold”.  The information contained in the article is basic to a fundamental and accurate understanding of gold.

The convolution and complication of basic fundamentals reigns supreme in almost all analysis of gold.  That is unfortunate, because it obscures the simple truth.

The simple truth is that gold is real money. Even that simple truth, however, deserves some further explanation.

Thursday, October 11, 2018

Transportation Breakdown Hinting to Global Economic Weakness? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Our research team highlighted the recent breakdown in the Transportation Index ($TRAN) as a very strong sign that the global economy and US economy may be starting to show early signs of weakness.

The Transportation Index typically leads the markets by about 3 to 6 months (on average).  When we see a big breakdown in the Transportation index, as we’ve seen recently, it immediately raises red flags that one or more component of the global markets may be crashing.  At this point in the Seasonal Cycle, one could expect the Transportation Index to rotate lower a bit.  Our concern is that global economic factors may be driving China and other markets into much deeper corrections – which could cause the US and other world markets to correct a bit further.

Thursday, October 11, 2018

SMIGGLE Advent Calendar 2018 UK Contents - A Look Inside! / Personal_Finance / Shopping

By: Anika_Walayat

Thinking of buying the new SMIGGLE advent calendar but wondering exactly what's inside, and is it worth the £25 price tag (discounted to £22.50 in Sheffield). Well wonder no more as we open up TWO SMIGGLE Calendars to see what goodies it contains. Two calendars because we wanted to make sure that the items don't vary from calender to calendar.

Thursday, October 11, 2018

SMIGGLE Shopping Binge! Pencil Cases, Smigglets and Giant Backpacks Review / Personal_Finance / Shopping

By: Anika_Walayat

Anika and Eliza just can't resist SMIGGLE, so of they went for another shopping trip to the local Smiggle store in Meadowhall, Sheffield, returning with loads of New Smiggle stuff, including pencil cases, rubbers, SMIGLETS and an amazing giant SMIGGLE backpack, about twice the volume of her old SMIGGLE backpack.

Wednesday, October 10, 2018

Here’s Why Gold Stocks, Gold, and Silver Are Great Buys Now / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2018

By: Frank_Holmes

Welcome to this week’s Market Wrap Podcast, I’m Mike Gleason. Coming up we’ve got a wonderful interview with Frank Holmes, CEO of U.S. Global Investors. Frank talks about some key developments in the gold community and why he believes a key merger in the gold mining industry could be a good indicator of a market bottom. He also shares his thoughts about Vanguard’s recent decision that leaves many gold investors hung out to dry. This is a must-hear interview with Frank Holmes, coming up after this week’s market update.

Precious metals markets struggled this week against the forces of rising bond yields and a stronger U.S. dollar. Where have we heard that before? Despite these headwinds, gold is holding up pretty well as it trades around the $1,200 level in a narrow range where it’s been locked in for the past month.

Wednesday, October 10, 2018

The Branded US Economy / Economics / US Economy

By: Peter_Schiff

Last week Donald Trump, in his own estimation, succeeded in replacing what he claimed to be the "worst trade deal in history" with what he claims was "the best trade deal in history." If true, this would not only make good on one of his central campaign promises, but it would be a genuinely significant development. In reality, the unveiling of the United States-Mexico-Canada (USMCA) trade deal is just the latest iteration of the President's talent for branding. As is the case in other aspects of the president's view of economic matters, the difference between then and now is almost purely semantic.

Wednesday, October 10, 2018

IPCC Reports a Climate Fit For a Groundhog / Politics / Climate Change

By: Raul_I_Meijer

And there we go again. Another IPCC report, and they all keep getting more alarming than the previous one. And then nothing substantial happens. Until the next report is issued and makes everybody’s headlines for a day, or two. Rinse, spin and repeat. “Now we really have to do something!”. “World leaders have a moral obligation to act!”.

Oh boy. To start with that last bit, world leaders don’t act because of moral obligations. They act to stay in, or get in, power. And they all know that to achieve that goal they must keep their people happy, even if dictators do this differently from ‘democratically elected’ leaders.

Wednesday, October 10, 2018

Russian Ruble Technical Chart Analysis and Forecast / Currencies / Russia

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Today I am taking a look at the Russian Ruble against the US Dollar that follows a request from a $12 Patron. The Ruble is not a market I monitor so my analysis is limited to a quick technical take.

Wednesday, October 10, 2018

Oil Price Rally Boosts Electric Car Sales / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: OilPrice_Com

Tesla’s competition is about to get more crowded next year with many legacy automakers and luxury brands launching a record number of battery electric vehicles and plug-in hybrids.  

All EV makers will have one common element that could help lift demand for battery vehicles—rising oil prices leading to fuel prices at four-year highs, which could turn consumers towards EVs.

Wednesday, October 10, 2018

Society Trends To Keep in Mind in the USA / Politics / Demographics

By: Dylan_Moran

Wednesday, October 10, 2018

[eBook] How to Identify Turning Points in the Market / InvestorEducation / Learn to Trade

By: Submissions

Dear Reader,

Everyone knows that trading reversals are some of the highest profit potential trades out there…

Risk is low and targets can be huge!

But the tricky part is identifying the exact “turning point” within the market so you can setup these fantastic trades.

Wednesday, October 10, 2018

A Bottom in Gold but not THE Bottom / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

Gold has struggled to rebound despite an extreme oversold condition and extreme bearish sentiment. Nevertheless, conditions for Gold have not worsened in recent days. In fact, Gold as well as gold stocks appear to be basing for a potential rebound into the holiday season. While some gold bulls expect a major bottom, we aren’t in that camp because the fundamentals are not in place yet to support a sustained advance.

The weekly chart below shows several positives for Gold.

First, last week Gold made a somewhat bullish candle after six weeks of testing $1180-$1190 support and failing to make new lows. With a daily close above $1215, a short-term bottom would be confirmed.

Wednesday, October 10, 2018

Presidential Cycle 3rd Year (after midterm election) VERY Bullish for Stocks / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Troy_Bombardia

The third year of the presidential cycle is the year after the midterm elections (i.e. November 2018).

Historically, this is extremely bullish for the U.S. stock market.

Here’s what the stock market does next after midterm elections.

Wednesday, October 10, 2018

Google's Dragonfly Serves their Chinese Master / Politics / Google

By: BATR

If there was ever any doubt that Google is committed to the destruction of freedom of speech, just examine their enthusiastic efforts to censor, track and restrict the Chinese use of the internet. Ryan Gallagher reports in The Intercept on a project – code-named Dragonfly.  

"Following a December 2017 meeting between Google’s CEO Sundar Pichai and a top Chinese government official, according to internal Google documents and people familiar with the plans.

Tuesday, October 09, 2018

Inflation Target Regrets / Economics / Inflation

By: Michael_Pento

Beginning this fall, and continuing throughout 2019, the stock market’s performance should be vastly different from what has occurred during the prior few years. Indeed, the huge reconciliation of stock prices is arriving now.

The primary reason behind this is the watershed change in global central banks’ monetary policies. For years central banks had been keeping rates near 0%, or below, and at the same time printing over a hundred billion dollars’ worth of fiat currencies each and every month to purchase bonds and stocks. That is all changing now. According to Capital Economics, fourteen major global central banks are either in the process right now, or have indicated that they be will next year, in the process of raising interest rates. At the same time, QE on a global net basis will plunge from $180 billion per month at its peak during 2017, to $0 by December…and will then go negative in 2019.

Tuesday, October 09, 2018

Euro Vulnerable as Slowing Growth Reveals Underlying Issues / Currencies / Euro

By: Submissions

Deb Shaw writes:

In our last commentary on the euro in late August, we wrote that the common currency was set to weaken further thanks to (1) slowing growth, (2) slowing inflation and (3) an outsized speculator long position in euro futures and options. Following the publication of our last commentary, EUR/USD has weakened from 1.1730 – 1.180 (the top-end of its trading range that we update daily on our website) down to 1.1510 (the current price on October 4).

Tuesday, October 09, 2018

Construction Companies to Watch For in 2019 / Companies / Sector Analysis

By: Dylan_Moran

Build, build, build. The construction industry can help drive the economy of a certain nation, a collective of countries, and the world for that matter.

The construction sector is important because it generates jobs that spill over to other aspects such as spending, according to Dr. Sitsabo Dlamini in his graduate paper for the University of Reading. In Europe alone, the industry accounts for 9% of the whole region’s economy and generates 18 million jobs according to the European Commission (EC).