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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Economics

Thursday, October 20, 2022

UK in CRISIS - Liz Truss Resigns, Inflation Nightmare, Soaring Interest Rates, Economic CRASH! / Economics / Inflation

By: Nadeem_Walayat

We have a Dogs dinner of a Tory government, waste of space Quasi Modo has gone, next will be Liz Trustless what a pair of idiots, Hunt, the Hunt as Chancellor is only good for reading scripts he gets given!, Come on Boris come back, all is forgiven, what was the worst under Johnson, parties, stoopid media wasted thousands of air time on parties! MSM Is an irrelevance, dumb, blind, completely clueless, after all they are Journalists NOT analysts, they don't have a clue! Quasi has gone, so will Trussless and it could even be as soon as today! Definitely before the end of October, she will be GONE! GOOD RIDDANCE to Britain's worst Prime Minister ever! And paving the way for Britain's first brown Prime Minister!

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, October 18, 2022

Keep Calm and Carry on Buying Quantum AI Tech Stocks / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022

By: Nadeem_Walayat

I must be a sucker for punishment to try and conclude my detailed 1+ year trend forecast at a time of maximum market uncertainty where major nations such as the UK are literally finding themselves on the brink of financial collapse! No really the UK financial system was a hairs breadth away from collapsing as it's pension funds that had GAMBLED ON INTEREST RATE DERIVATES with US rate hikes triggering a COLLAPSE in UK Bonds as Pension funds were forced to sell their most liquid assets, and the more UK bonds fell the more the pension funds were being forced to sell so as to meet MARGIN CALLS on their interest rate bets, which in effect was Britain's Lehman's moment prompting the Bank of England to BAIL THEM OUT by announcing that they would buy an UNLIIMITED amount of UK bonds so as to bring yields back down and thus push the capital value of Pension Funds UP so as to halt the forced selling that would have resulted in the Pensions funds defaulting and making the counterparty to their bets BANKRUPT! Yes you guessed it the BANKS BANKRUPT AGAIN! WALL STREET, LOMBARD STREET, CANARY WHARF, BERLIN! BANKRUPT! This is why whenever a patron mentions that the banks are cheap I tend to reply that you do know what they have gambled on until they explode!

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Personal_Finance

Tuesday, October 18, 2022

Rubber Dinghy Rapids Bro Fast Track at Alton Towers Scarefest 2022 / Personal_Finance / Theme Parks

By: Anika_Walayat

Paying homage to a funny clip from the black comedy Four Lions which featured Alton Towers and the extremely funny rubber dinghy rapids/congo river rapids ride that we partook aptly during SCAREFEST for a fast track to paradise, innit?

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Stock-Markets

Sunday, October 16, 2022

Why Most Stocks May Go Nowhere for the Next 10 Years! / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Here's why PE ratio's matter as the following chart shows the return 10 years forward from the starting average PE i.e if the stock market is trading on an average PE of 27 than can basically be expected to go nowhere for the next 10 years. Whilst the lower the PE the higher the expected return (on average), where the safe zone for investing is at a starting PE of between 10 and 20. Note graphs is as of September 2021, see below for updated ratios.

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Companies

Sunday, October 16, 2022

Are You Prepared for Widespread Bank Failures? / Companies / Financial Crisis 2022

By: EWI


"This time, the world economy appears to be on much shakier footing"

The ideal time to prepare for most anything in life, especially a potential circumstance that's adverse, is before it happens.

The problem is: Many people don't know what will happen in their lives ahead of time.

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Stock-Markets

Sunday, October 16, 2022

Post-bubble Economic Contraction / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2022

By: Gary_Tanashian

“Post-bubble contraction” (PBC) as coined by Bob Hoye, may finally be at hand

Bob Hoye has been talking about a coming post-bubble contraction (PBC) for many years, in my experience. Now after many false starts, it may finally be in play on the wider macro picture. Past contractions (e.g. 2008 and 2020) have proven to be little more than precursors, triggers to new asset bubble phases because the Fed’s main macro manipulation tool, bonds, were in a multi-decade long trend of disinflationary signaling.

To this point with respect to the PBC, timing has been an issue. This is not a critique of Hoye, a fine financial historian and macro fundamental analyst. In fact, it is the opposite. It is from him that I learned the proper fundamentals for gold and especially the gold mining industry. But perfectly good deflationary meltdowns (of previous inflationary operations) were foiled in both 2008 and 2020.

Why were they foiled so effectively? Because the Federal Reserve and global central banks have for decades had a lenient bond market to fall back on (the fabled ‘bond vigilantes of yore apparently rode into a small town, hit the saloon and never again emerged… until 2022, that is). I have for many years now used the 30-year yield ‘Continuum’ (monthly 30yr yield chart, below) as a nice visual to the mechanics of the Fed’s macro-manipulative wheel house, the US Treasury bond market.

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Stock-Markets

Saturday, October 15, 2022

Feeding the Stocks Bear Market Beast / Stock-Markets / Investing 2022

By: Nadeem_Walayat

For some reason most folk when looking at the charts focus on the high vs the low as if investors only buy and sell at the exact highs and lows, well maybe the mania herd bought near the highs last year to sell near the lows this year but most intelligent investors don't invest that way i.e. during the second half of last year, I sold down 80% of my AI tech stocks portfolio in advance of this bear market, including warning virtually within a few percent of the high to get ready for a bear market during 2022 and maybe even worse a crash! That was on the 5th of December 2021!

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Stock-Markets

Saturday, October 15, 2022

New Banking Crisis Looms as Fears of “Lehman Moment” Rise / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2022

By: MoneyMetals

As new inflation data pushes the Fed toward continuing with rate hikes, precious metals markets are struggling to make headway.

On Thursday, the government released Consumer Price Index data for September. The so-called core CPI, which excludes food and energy, increased 6.6% from a year ago. That’s the highest core inflation reading since 1982.

Although prices at the pump have eased since the summer peak, other inflation components continue to rise. Housing, food, and medical care are currently among the biggest contributors to rising consumer prices.

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Commodities

Saturday, October 15, 2022

The Fed’s Challenge and Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

As the economic slowdown deepens, the Fed’s challenges grow larger. It increases the risk of policy mistakes that could benefit gold.

Inflation Is Still a Challenge


It was a tough year for the Federal Reserve. The U.S. central bank’s inflation forecasts were embarrassing. In December 2021, it projected the PCEPI inflation rate at 2.6%, while it soared to 6.8% through June. The Fed disclosed $300 billion in unrealized losses on its assets as of the end of March, showing the negative impact of rising interest rates on the market value of the Fed’s balance sheet (that likely only intensified since Q1). There was a trading scandal with two top officials resigning.
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Personal_Finance

Saturday, October 15, 2022

SCAREFEST TOP TIPS! - Alton Towers Scarefest 2022 / Personal_Finance / Theme Parks

By: Anika_Walayat

Top tips for attending SCAREFEST 2022 so you enjoy the thrills and the scares. The carnival is back in town for Scarefest 2022 in this brand new scare zone at Alton Towers, Freak Show. A travelling side-show of circus rejects has descended upon Alton Towers. Dare you walk amongst the freakishly fascinating misfits, desperate for your undivided attention?

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Personal_Finance

Saturday, October 15, 2022

Investment Tips You Should Know About / Personal_Finance / Debt & Loans

By: Mark_Adan

1. P2P Lending
P2P lending, also known as peer-to-peer lending, is still pretty new. There are online P2P services that offers personal loans, business loans and other types of loans. You can join a service, and then you can pool your money with other investors to fund loans to others. If the borrower qualifies for a loan, then you'll make money when they start paying the loan back or when the loan is paid back in full.

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, October 12, 2022

Why Most Stocks May Go Nowhere for the Next 10 Years! / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Here's why PE ratio's matter as the following chart shows the return 10 years forward from the starting average PE i.e if the stock market is trading on an average PE of 27 than can basically be expected to go nowhere for the next 10 years. Whilst the lower the PE the higher the expected return (on average), where the safe zone for investing is at a starting PE of between 10 and 20. Note graphs is as of September 2021, see below for updated ratios.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Commodities

Wednesday, October 12, 2022

How Will the New CPI Data Affect the Gold Market? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022

By: P_Radomski_CFA

Fresh inflation data is to be released tomorrow. While it may trigger daily fluctuations, the precious metals’ medium-term fundamentals remain bearish.

Stuck in Reverse

While risk assets attempted a daily rally on Oct. 11, Bank of England (BOE) Governor Andrew Bailey spoiled the party with his hawkish warning to U.K. pension funds. After restarting QE to curb the rapid rise in U.K. interest rates, he said:

“My message to the funds involved and all the firms is you’ve got three days left now. You’ve got to get this done. The essence of financial stability is that [intervention] is temporary. It’s not prolonged.”

Thus, while gold bucked the trend, it was another down day for silver, mining stocks and the S&P 500. Furthermore, with Fed officials undeterred by the financial market volatility, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said on Oct. 11:

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Personal_Finance

Wednesday, October 12, 2022

Ways to increase efficiency while playing in mobile casino / Personal_Finance / Gambling

By: Varun_Kumar

Earlier online casino experiences were limited to a mere desktop experience. Things took a drastic turn with the invention of smartphones. And which resulted in the arrival of mobile casinos. That is super confinement and loaded with plenty of features. The followers of mobile casinos are rapidly rising as people see them as god sent.

The inevitable features it offered stole gamblers' hearts and became a quick obsession among the gambling community. If you are a gambler looking to try out mobile casinos, there couldn't be a better time than this. The mobile casino developers are thriving hard to make the gaming experience as smooth as possible. 

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ConsumerWatch

Wednesday, October 12, 2022

Barratt Smith Brown - How Britains' Debt Collectors Actually Operate, Treat Victims of Energy Firms / ConsumerWatch / Debt & Loans

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Firms such as Barratt Smith and Brown are literally a law onto themselves, wracking up self imposed 'penalties' onto NONE EXISTENT DEBT! All courtesy of Administrators such as ENSORS ACCOUNTANTS. As this article illustrates how they play their milk the debt victim game which includes PREVENTING victims from being able to pay off 'debts' all whilst the so called Financial Ombudsman and Financial Conduct Authority sleep,

Firstly how does one cross paths with Debt Collecting outfit such as this if one has NO debt?

In step Britain's Energy companies that walked away from fixed rate tariff contracts, dumping their customers onto the regulator to parcel off onto the the likes of EDF resulting in huge hikes in tariffs. For instance I paid in advance above the market rate to fix my Gas tariff at 2.5p per kwh with Zog Energy who instead of honouring their contract took the money and ran, dumping their customers onto the regulator who ditched all onto EDF that hiked the tariff rate to 7.5p per kwh, three times the fixed rate! So triple the gas bill!

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Stock-Markets

Monday, October 10, 2022

Stock Market Trend Current State of Play / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022

By: Nadeem_Walayat

S&P closed at 3680. trading to a low of 3633, June's low is 3622, so the 50% retracement studies conclusion so far remains in tact which implies that this decline is a bear trap, to be clear a trap for the bears all betting on a collapse into the abyss of 3,200 and below, fantasy numbers such as 3000 area being bandied around, and apparently Monday 26th is the end of the SHIEMITA when a big CRASH is due!, Note I don't for a minute take this nonsense seriously, anyway today's the last day of the SHEIMTA that was ironically brought to my attention in June near the bear market lows when there were shrill cries of SELL EVERYTHING NOW! In which case the Shemita folk are looking to break even today (in US dollars). To be clear SHIMTA is BS, but like all BS's there will be coincidences which with the benefit of hindsight will be twisted and turned into support of BS as will probably happen to this SHEIMITA where what it originally implied will be subverted with the benefit of hindsight, that's the case with religious mumbo jumbo, people actually do want to believe in the super natural! That ancient religious texts somehow have magic powers to predict what the stock market will do in 2022 which can only happen via a self fulfilling prophecy, i.e. if enough believe in it and act on it then yes it sort of comes true, which in fact is the basis of Technical Analysis, traders and algo's lock step acting on wiggly lines on the charts. A quick google shows that most of the major market CRASH events happened AFTER SHEMITA but for some reason SHEMITA claims jurisdiction over them as well i.e. 1987 Crash, 9-11 attack and so on,

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Commodities

Monday, October 10, 2022

Gold Is Below $1,700 Again. Will It Repeat Its Fall to $1400? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022

By: P_Radomski_CFA

The current situation of gold and its behavior in 2013 share many bearish analogies. Is the yellow metal only halfway through its massive collapse?

A Decade Ago

After we posted last week’s gold price forecast, gold, silver, and mining stocks declined in tune with the analysis. Is the rally over?

Let’s start by taking a closer look at gold.

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Personal_Finance

Monday, October 10, 2022

FREAK SHOW - Alton Towers Scarefest Scare Zone 2022 / Personal_Finance / Theme Parks

By: Anika_Walayat

Welcome to Freak Show, you can stay forever! The carnival is back in town for Scarefest 2022 in this brand new scare zone at Alton Towers, Freak Show. A travelling side-show of circus rejects has descended upon Alton Towers. Dare you walk amongst the freakishly fascinating misfits, desperate for your undivided attention?

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Personal_Finance

Saturday, October 08, 2022

Scarefest 2022 – Halloween Fright Night Has Begun! Enter Alton Towers at Your Peril! / Personal_Finance / Theme Parks

By: Anika_Walayat

Prepare to be scared! Very Sacred! Alton Towers Scarefest is BACK for another post pandemic year, frights for all you teens and adults and maybe a few brave children out there! Here is our first video in our Scarefest series of what it's like to step foot into Alton Towers Scarefest 2022! With lots of ghouls and ghosts to give you plenty of frights!

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Commodities

Saturday, October 08, 2022

Quantum AI Tech Stocks Portfolio Investing At Bear Market Lows / Commodities / Investing 2022

By: Nadeem_Walayat

I made lots of small across the board buys earlier in the the week with my main focus on Nvidia, HPQ, Logitec and Arrow, and 1 big buy - Samsung. Current state of my portfolio is 71% invested, 29% cash. Remember as stock prices go up so does the percent invested, similarly when stock prices fall the percent invested naturally drops.

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