Tuesday, December 06, 2022
UK House Prices CRASH 2023 - Warns every man and his dog! Reality vs Perma Doom! / Housing-Market / UK Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The doom merchants are back, that's if they ever went away, go search UK house prices forecast and you are met with a stream of expectations that UIK house prices will fall by between 10% to 30% all latching on to utterances from the OBR and Bank of England despite the fact that neither can forecast their way out of a paper bag!
SO are house prices about to enter a bear market or worse CRASH in response to RISING interest rates? Find out in my latest UK housing market video.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, December 06, 2022
Stock Market Investor Sentiment / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Sentiment
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Apparently today's stock market sentiment is the most bearish since the March 2009 low! Which implies the end of the bear market is imminent. However there could be a double dip lower low.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, December 06, 2022
Stock Market Breadth / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Cumulative NYSE Advancing / Declining issues proved a useful early warning indicator going into the stock market top, since which has closely tracked the markets decline so is not showing any obvious positive nor negative deviation, a case of continuing to keep ones eye on it for a similar cues.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, December 06, 2022
Gold Bullion’s Under-Appreciated Feature: It Will Never Go to Zero / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: MoneyMetals
Physical gold and silver will never become worthless. This fact does not make for much of a marketing pitch. But given recent events, this is a much more important feature than it looks at first glance.
Americans, and investors around the world, live in an age of collapsing confidence in institutions. The bubble economy built on zero interest rates by out-of-control central bankers appears to be in danger of implosion.
Companies can fail, and their share prices can go to zero. Bond issuers can default on their debt. This happens rarely in strong economies, but it can happen wholesale when bubbles pop.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, December 06, 2022
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: The Coming Week Will Tell Us How We Get To 4300SPX / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Avi_Gilburt
Early on in the week, the US markets declined and the supposed reason for such decline was due to the Covid lockdowns and mass protests of such in China. Yet, the Chinese markets surged strongly at the same time. And, this had many people scratching their heads.
Furthermore, right before we began the mid-week surge towards our next higher target/resistance, Powell gave a wonderful speech during which is he basically did not say anything different than what the market already knew. Yet, of course, pundits were quick to point to the speech as the reason we rallied to the next resistance/target.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, December 05, 2022
Best Student Budget Laptop for 2023 ASUS Vivobook Pro OLED 5600H, 5800H Unboxing / Personal_Finance / Computing
By: HGR
After much research weighing up specs and price we finally settled on the ASUS Vivobook Pro OLED as the best budget Student laptop, thus 512gb SSD, 16gb Ram Ryzen PC comes in two variations, the 5600H or the 5800H. Wait there's more! The SCREEEN is fantastic! OLED 2.8k! WOW on a budget laptop that currently costs £515 for the 5600h (Amazon link) or £600 for the 5800h, for those who want the 2 extra cores.
Find out as we unbox is to see what £515 to £600 bought us.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, December 03, 2022
Stock Market and Margin Debt Analysis / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Margin debt tends to peak and fall long before the stock market turns lower as basically speculators start to feel the pain of holding losing positions and thus cut back on their bets. Either that or are forced to close their losing trades due to failure to meet margin calls, in which respect this indicator proved very useful in flagging the prospects for a bear market long before it materialised as stock prices trended higher on petrol fumes as the fuel tank was empty.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, December 03, 2022
12 Days of Elliott Wave Market Analysis / InvestorEducation / Elliott Wave Theory
By: EWI
Hi,
We're feeling the holiday spirit!
Our friends at Elliott Wave International have just launched a brand new event for traders & investors. It's called the "12 Days of Elliott." From December 1st through the 12th, you get free access to 12 premium educational resources. You'll get a different one each day.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, December 02, 2022
HUI Gold Stocks Rally Hits Target / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2022
By: Gary_Tanashian
The HUI rally has hit the logical resistance target where the 200 day moving average meets clear lateral resistance. It has done so in a not particularly overbought fashion due to the chop and grind it took to get here off the lows of the shaded bottoming pattern that we established and tracked in NFTRH over the last several weeks.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, December 02, 2022
Why the Fed is Wrong about Inflation Coming Down / Economics / Inflation
By: Richard_Mills
The US Federal Reserve continues to grapple with inflation, which at 7.7% (October CPI) is more than triple the Fed’s 2% target, without causing a recession by lifting interest rates too high.
The Fed has two options when it comes to interest rate increases designed to tackle the highest US inflation since the early 1980s. The first is it continues to hike rates, beyond what the economy can handle, causing a recession, usually defined as two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth. This is the “Volcker Fed” playbook.
In 1979, then US Federal Reserve Chair Paul Volcker faced a serious challenge: how to quell inflation which had been wracking the economy for most of the decade. The prices of goods and services had averaged 3.2% annually since World War II, but after the 1973 oil shock, they more than doubled, to an annual 7.7%. Inflation reached 9.1% in 1975, the highest since 1947. Although prices declined the following year, by 1979 inflation had reached a startling 11.3% (led by the 1979 energy crisis) and in 1980 it soared to 13.5%.
Not only was inflation going through the roof, but economic growth had stalled and unemployment was high, rising from 5.1% in January 1974 to 9% in May 1975. In this low-growth, hyperinflationary environment we had “stagflation”.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, December 01, 2022
US Recession 2023 Already Happened in 2022! Stealth Stocks Bull Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
FED Balance Sheet
Not to forget the inflation mega-trend courtesy of rampant central bank money printing to monetize government debt coupled with the fake inflation indices where up until recently the Fed had succeeded in hoodwinking the masses that US inflation was just 1%. Instead at that time I warned it was more like 6%! Now it's more like 14%. Anyway the money printing binge now totals $8.8 trillion, up from $4 trillion at the start of 2020 and down from a a peak of $9.62 trillion in the so called Taper. We saw how the taper of 2019 went which at the time I warned would eventually resolve in the Fed Balance sheet DOUBLING. of course I was not expecting it to happen the very NEXT YEAR in 2020!
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, November 29, 2022
Stock Market Valuation Reset and Future EPS / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Stock markets trend between a state of over valuation and under valuation in earnings terms, hence my warnings to expect a valuation reset during most of the second half of 2021 which means regardless of what happens to the economy THIS bear market WAS inevitable! And it HAS come to PASS to great extent where many of the most over valued stocks have HALVED in price and not just the usual suspects but the likes of AMD and TSMC! AMAZON! And so on.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, November 29, 2022
SILVER INVESTORS – MONEY TO BURN? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: Kelsey_Williams
Over the past two years, there have been some wild and crazy things happen with regard to premiums charged and paid for various physical silver investment products. For the privilege of owning silver in certain specific forms, investors are paying through the nose; and, apparently, willingly so. WHY? Is the cash burning holes in their pockets?
I just completed a review of current market premiums for both silver and gold products. It shouldn’t be a surprise as to what particular product heads the list for the most expensive premiums. Investors are having a torrid love affair with U.S. Silver Eagles.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, November 29, 2022
Why I’m Buying These “Boring” Tech Stocks / Companies / Tech Stocks
By: Submissions
By Justin Spittler : Is the bottom in?
It’s the most common question I’ve been getting.
At the time of writing, the Dow is coming off its best month since 1976. The S&P 500 is up 8% in four weeks. Many investors see this as an opportunity to get back into the markets.
As you’ll see, the markets haven’t give us the “all clear” yet.
But that doesn’t mean you should avoid all stocks. In this essay, I’ll show you where I’m putting my money today.
Tuesday, November 29, 2022
Crude Oil: Why You Should Look Beyond Supply / Demand / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: EWI
The primary regulator of the rises and falls in oil's prices is market psychology
As I write on the morning of Friday, Nov. 18, crude oil is on track for its second weekly decline.
The financial media usually finds "reasons" for a market's price action that are rooted in "market fundamentals," and this decline in oil's price was no exception.
On Thurs., Nov. 17, a CNBC headline noted:
Oil falls on easing geopolitical tension, China demand outlook
The gist of the story was that a rising number of COVID-19 cases in China would contribute to a lower demand for crude oil in the world's second largest economy; hence, the falling prices.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, November 27, 2022
US Recession 2023 Already Happened in 2022! / Economics / Recession 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Yes it is a a big fat con because the US has already posted 2 quarters of negative GDP, what can you do? This is the world we inhabit of fake economic data, the Fed does not like CPI, lets run with the much lower PCE, 5% instead of 8% inflation! What a con!
The facts are the US had a recession in 2022 that everyone is ignoring!
The US posted it's 2nd negative GDP of -0.6%, that's -2.4% year to date, what does that mean for stocks? Corporate profits Dividend by GDP graph clearly shows that we are still near the cycle peak, i.e .unlike Q4 2019 BEFORE the pandemic crash, earnings have not contracted anywhere near to signal an earnings bottom. So this metric suggests new highs in the indices are NOT likely anytime soon, especially given that GDP is FALLING. However against this we have the MAGIC of INFLATION that should support nominal stock prices as Inflation INFLATES GDP and corporate profits, case in point being the 1970's where corporate profits ROSE albeit form a 1970 trough, but the indices ended the decade little changed.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, November 27, 2022
Why Silver Price 'Should Resume Upwards Path / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: Clive_Maund
Expert Clive Maund reviews silver's 4-month, 1-year, and 5-year charts to tell you where he believes the future is headed for this precious metal.
When the dollar broke down over a week ago, silver joined gold in breaking higher, as we can see on its 4-month chart below, and now we are seeing a normal post-breakout reaction as the dollar rallies somewhat to relieve the extreme condition that resulted from its steep lunge.
Once the dollar’s relief rally is done, silver should resume the upward path.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, November 27, 2022
After This Holiday Stock Market Rally, You Better Know When To Walk Away / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Chris_Vermeulen
This week’s investor insight will make you think twice about the current stock and bond rally as we head into the end of the year.
We get a lot of questions about if the stock market has bottomed or if it is headed lower and how they can take advantage of the next Major market move. Over the next 6 to 12 months, I expect the market to have violent price swings that will either make or break your financial future. So let me show a handful of charts and show what I expect to unfold.
Let’s dive in.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, November 27, 2022
US Bond Market and Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: Gary_Tanashian
For someone who uses the bond markets as important indicators to the macro analysis, I am the furthest thing from an astute bond trader and am certainly not a bond investor. This probably owes to the fact that my earliest (gold bug) training in the markets was with an eye toward the dangers of debt in a fiat driven system.
In other words, how could I take seriously the debt of a government hopelessly in multi-trillions of dollars in debt and adding to it all the time? That is what a bond as an investment is, a call on the debt of, in this case, a supposedly high quality entity (the US government). No thank you.
Though I am not well liked in some corners of the gold promotion err, analysis business, I consider myself today to be a full on gold bug just as I did 20 years ago. Nothing has changed because gold does not change. It has remained a steady literal and figurative rock within the financial system for years, decades and centuries. It’s what confidence in risk assets – including bonds – is measured by.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, November 27, 2022
Gold and Silver Post Breakout Reaction Provides Another Buying Opportunity / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: Clive_Maund
With the breakdown of the U.S. dollar, expert Clive Maund reviews charts for gold, copper, and palladium to tell you where he believes the metals are headed and which he thinks you should buy.
The last update was prescient as it called for a major breakdown in the dollar and breakouts by gold and silver, all of which happened just days later. If this were 2010 or 2011, this update would have generated considerable interest and numerous emails, but today nothing — it was greeted with a yawn.
This means one of two things or a combination of the two – either American investors or others are now broke and have no money to invest. Hence no interest or sentiment towards the precious metals sector is now so negative after recent underperformance that there is no enthusiasm for it.
I believe that the explanation is largely the latter reason, in which case it is exceedingly bullish because the more negative the sentiment towards a sector, the more upside potential it has, and I saw an article or video confirming this a few days ago because it described the rally this month as a “bull trap.”
Read full article... Read full article...