Friday, September 09, 2022
Stocks Bear Market Rally End Game / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
Mega earnings week saw the stock market soar on reporting euphoria where apparently the worse the earnings the stronger the rally in stocks such as Amazon due to the twin forces of investors piling into breakouts AND the market running short stops, which surely implies that the bear market could be OVER! After all the stock market discounts the future and so is looking beyond current BAD earnings and economic data to the blue sky's of future quarters, that coupled with US bonds rallying as the market tempered future interest rate expectations down from a peak of 4% for Mid 2023 to currently 3.25% all contributing towards the S&P closing higher at 4130.
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Friday, September 09, 2022
Futures Still Dogging Gold Price / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: Zeal_LLC
Gold continues to languish near major lows after a rough summer, deeply out of favor with traders. Oddly this leading alternative investment seems oblivious to the first inflation super-spike since the 1970s. That should be driving big gold demand, fueling a major upleg. But that classic inflationary response has been temporarily delayed by heavy-to-extreme gold-futures selling. When that reverses to buying, gold will soar.
As everyone running a household or business knows, inflation is raging out of control. Not even lowballed government statistics can hide it. The monthly US Consumer Price Index has averaged blistering 8.3% year-over-year gains so far in 2022! That’s 4.6x 2019’s +1.8%-YoY monthly average, the last normal year before the pandemic-lockdown stock panic and its extensive aftermath. This June, the CPI soared 9.1% YoY.
That proved its hottest print since way back in November 1981, a staggering 40.6-year high! That’s despite today’s CPI being way watered-down compared to the 1970s one, extensively understating real inflation. Americans sure wish prices were only climbing 9%ish annually, but the grim reality out there is at least double to triple that. With such extreme inflation, gold should be soaring on huge investment demand.
Gold skyrocketed during the last similar inflation super-spikes in the 1970s. In the first the CPI blasted from +2.7% YoY to +12.3% over 30 months into December 1974. Gold’s monthly-average prices from trough to peak CPI months launched 196.6% higher! During the second the CPI exploded from +4.9% YoY to +14.8% in 40 months climaxing in March 1980. Gold’s monthly-average prices were a moonshot, up 322.4%!
If today’s CPI still used its far-more-honest 1970s methodology, headline inflation would be about double reported levels. Gold’s stunning disconnect from today’s raging inflation is troubling, leaving the great majority of traders forgetting about that 1970s precedent. After suffering one of its worst summers in modern bull-market years, gold has largely been left-for-dead. Instead of flocking back, investors are fleeing.
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Friday, September 09, 2022
Here's a Potential Signal for What May Be Next for U.S. Stocks / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: EWI
This action by investors resulted in "the highest total since 2014, and probably ever"
Frost & Prechter's Wall Street classic book, Elliott Wave Principle: Key to Market Behavior, first published nearly 45 years ago and said:
"Eight years of a raging bear market have taught today's investor to be cautious, conservative and cynical. Defensiveness is not in evidence at tops."
Considering this description of investors' mindset in the late '70s and early '80s, many market observers were not contemplating the start of a big bull market.
Yet, Elliott Wave Principle did forecast a major uptrend and that's what happened.
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Friday, September 09, 2022
How to Wash Your Car Hosepipe Ban with a Bucket and Sponge, Rinse and Polish, Save Water / Personal_Finance / Motoring
By: HGR
A hosepipe ban has kicked in across many regions of the UK, Here's how to wash your car with a just a bucket and sponge, including rinsing and polish, no fancy water butt attachments, just using a simple bucket and sponge! So get saving water, some excercise and have a clean sparking car on your driveway! And if you are good enough maybe you can earn some extra money by washing your neighbours cars as well!
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Friday, September 09, 2022
Answering Questions About Private Equity with Mark Hauser / Stock-Markets / Investing 2022
By: Sumeet_Manhas
According to McKinsey’s Private Markets Annual Review released in March of this year, private equity is continuing to experience growth. The report found that private market assets under management (AUM) has grown 170 percent over the past ten years, increasing by $4 trillion and today has reached an all-time high of $6.3 trillion. There are twice as many private equity firms out there than there were a decade ago, and the pooled investment rate of return (IRR) of 27 percent in 2021 saw private equity continue to be the highest-performing private markets asset class.
Mark Hauser, co-managing partner of Hauser Private Equity, highlights below what you need to know about private equity. Since its inception in 2008, Hauser Private Equity’s five funds have invested over $350 million in capital in privately-owned businesses nationally. With over three decades of investing and operating company experience, Hauser has facilitated the completion of over 500 investments and successfully realized over 150 of them.
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Friday, September 09, 2022
The Day Queen Elizabeth II DIED at Balmoral Castle, Scotland - LIve BBC / Politics / UK Politics
By: N_Walayat
It's the 8th of September and since just after mid-day non stop BBC coverage was of that the doctors had been making the Queen comfortable, this was not just start stop coverage but continuous broadcast which implied that the Queen was on or death bed and probably had already died and the announcement was pending everyone getting to Balmoral with the last person to arrive being estranged Prince Harry. Here is the BBC coverage live in the leadup to the announcement of the death of the Queen of the United Kingdom at Balmoral Castle, Scotland.
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Thursday, September 08, 2022
What Is Options Trading And How To Know If It Is Good For You / InvestorEducation / Options & Warrants
By: Steve_Barker
Options trading is the buying and selling of assets that give the buyer the right to specify both the price and the time of purchase of a particular security. With options trading, you have complete control over your financial market decisions.
After purchasing an option, you are free to sell it at any time or day of your choosing. However, there is no penalty for not selling an option you have purchased. The two main categories of options are call and put options.
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Thursday, September 08, 2022
Russia Declares Energy WAR on Europe! GazProm Threatens to Cut Gas Supplies! / Politics / Energy Crisis
By: N_Walayat
Straight out of a Bond Movie, the evil dictator threatens to FREEZE europe into submission, only that this is not a movie it is reality in 2022. Gazprom threatens to cut supply of Gas to Europe as part of the defacto energy war on europe. This is for the horses mouth - Gazprom!
The energy crisis is only beginning! We are in the calm before the REAL storm!
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Monday, September 05, 2022
Stock Market Reality Check / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Mega earnings week saw the stock market soar on reporting euphoria where apparently the worse the earnings the stronger the rally in stocks such as Amazon due to the twin forces of investors piling into breakouts AND the market running short stops, which surely implies that the bear market could be OVER! After all the stock market discounts the future and so is looking beyond current BAD earnings and economic data to the blue sky's of future quarters, that coupled with US bonds rallying as the market tempered future interest rate expectations down from a peak of 4% for Mid 2023 to currently 3.25% all contributing towards the S&P closing higher at 4130.
Whilst the market was in the grips of BAD earnings mania I took the opportunity to trim my holdings which is another word for light selling, where my selling only went deep for Amazon which took my percent of portfolio down from 1.6% to 1.3% though after taking account of the price jump it's back up to 1.5% of portfolio which means I will probably sell more Amazon next week/ Whilst percent exposure is irrelevant right now as I am seeking to further reduce my max exposure limit. So more selling in the pipeline for Amazon and to a lesser extent others as the stock market so far has not done anything I have not been expecting it to do with the S&P having fulfilled my minimum target of 4080 and now has entered the TREACLE resistance zone of 4080 to 4180 as my forecast graph of some months illustrates.
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Monday, September 05, 2022
“Countering” China would pave the way to Global Economic Depression / Economics / China
By: Dan_Steinbock
In its pursuit for unipolar primacy, the Biden administration is risking the economic stability of China, the West, emerging Asia, and the futures of the Global South.
Before the global pandemic, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) reported China had replaced the United States as the engine of the global economy. In parallel, Reuters market analyst Jack Kemp warned that since early 2018, "the United States has pursued a deliberate policy of attempting to hurt China’s economy in response to concerns about the shifting balance of economic power and unfair trade practices.”
As economist Anne O. Krueger saw it, Trump’s trade war was “a failure that harmed both China and the US.” Consequently, many hoped that Biden's victory would come with a bilateral reset. But the reverse happened.
Building further on Trump’s flawed policies, the Biden White House began to weaponize those policies while diversifying risks to U.S. allies – from the EU and Japan to Ukraine and Taiwan.
Monday, September 05, 2022
Bet Successfully with The Help of Sportsbook Betting Reviews / Personal_Finance / Gambling
By: Sumeet_Manhas
There are hundreds, to thousands, of sportsbooks online and although many of them are reliable, many sports bettors lose money because they fall prey to scam or rogue sportsbooks. These sportsbooks default on player’s winnings, and as a result, leave successful sports betters left with nothing to show for their winning bets. To protect yourself from falling victim to sportsbooks, you need to read Sportsbook Betting Reviews.
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Monday, September 05, 2022
Clever Ways to Cut Business Costs with Technology / Companies / SME
By: Justin_Weinger
For any business, there’s a constant demand to find ways of keeping operational expenses low, and profits high. In recent years, an uncertain economy has placed even more pressure on business budgets, pushing executives to experiment with new and creative ways of minimizing fees. Increasingly, innovators are turning to technology solutions as an excellent way of improving cash flow, without compromising on business performance. The right tools and systems can offer everything from productivity boosts to efficiency increases in your workplace. What’s more, they can offer behind-the-scenes insights into where you’re missing out on places to save money. Here are just of some of the simple ways you can leverage technology to cut costs in your organization, without risking employee or customer experience.
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Friday, September 02, 2022
Gold Falls as Powell Appears Hawkish in Jackson Hole / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole symposium confirmed his hawkish stance, sending gold prices towards $1,700.Markets Were Quick to React to Powell’s Speech
Jackson Hole is behind us! What have we learned from Powell’s remarks at this year’s symposium? Well, the Fed Chair delivered a decisive and firm speech that reinforced the Fed’s hawkish stance and put to rest beliefs about a quick dovish pivot:
Restoring price stability will likely require maintaining a restrictive policy stance for some time. The historical record cautions strongly against prematurely loosening policy.
Although Powell didn’t specify how large the next interest rate hike will be, he said that “another unusually large increase could be appropriate at our next meeting”. Importantly, Powell downplayed July’s deceleration in inflation, saying that “a single month's improvement falls far short of what the Committee will need to see before we are confident that inflation is moving down”.
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Friday, September 02, 2022
Stock Market Bull Bear Cat and Mouse Game / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Monica_Kingsley
S&P 500 dicey premarket upswing fizzled out right after the open, volume picked up, and market breadth correspondigly deteriorated. Bonds confirmed, and the higher yields didn‘t even send the dollar much upwards. Together with the sea of red in commodities and precious metals, this smacks of deleveraging, still of the relatively orderly flavor if you look at the well behaved VIX at 26 only. The steep post Jackson Hole downswing will pause, but there isn‘t a sign that would happen precisely today yet.
Looking at the daily chart of CRB Index, crude oil, gold and silver with the miners, odds are that we would see a repeat of yesterday‘s action today as well – to a good degree. Not much has really change since my yesterday‘s review of real assets and cryptos, and especially the crude oil setback (reinforced by the Iran deal speculation Europe is pinning its eyes on) is generally worrying. The Fed keeps hammering the same message, and short end of the curve keeps duly rising. Tombstone reminder for those overstaying in the S&P 500 rally to the 200-day moving average, would be „don‘t fight the Fed – the central bank doesn‘t have your bank now, and would act on the out of control inflation“.
Friday, September 02, 2022
Doing Business In Singapore? Learn How To Feel Comfortable There / Companies / SME
By: Steve_Barker
Singapore is often referred to as a "city in a garden," and it's easy to see why – with more than 50% of the island dedicated to green space, the city is teeming with lush parks, tree-lined streets, and beautifully landscaped gardens. Despite its relatively small size, Singapore is a bustling metropolis that is home to a diverse population of around 5 million people.
If you’re heading to Singapore for a business trip, there are a few things you should know first before you go so that you can feel as comfortable as possible for the duration of your trip. Let’s get straight into it!
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Thursday, September 01, 2022
Qualcom Harbinger, AI Predicts Future Stock Prices 3 Years Ahead, China Bank Runs / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
QCOM illustrates how the bottoms will tend to play out for most of the AI tech stocks, for if you are not already invested then you will likely end up waiting for the second chance to buy near the bottom all the way towards new all time highs. For instance I would be surprised if we see anywhere near $118 on Qualcom again, I may be wrong but I am assuming there are a lot of investors now wishing they had bought near $120 and are thus eager for another bite at the cherry.
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Thursday, September 01, 2022
Nothing Is Stopping the Gold GDXJ From Reaching 2020 Lows / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2022
By: P_Radomski_CFA
Both gold and silver’s results sagged, but gold stocks are the worst performers so far. What is this decline leading to?
Gold moved visibly lower yesterday, silver closed at the second-lowest level in over 2 years, and miners (both GDX and GDXJ) formed their lowest daily close in over 2 years! If someone has chosen to take short positions, profits have increased.
Thursday, September 01, 2022
Beware of This Deceptive Stocks Bear-Market Trait / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
By: EWI
There's only one rule which applies to a 2nd wave rally...
Big stock market trends don't progress up or down in a straight line. In a bear market, stocks typically rebound after the first leg down. In a bull market, the opposite happens: Stocks again take a big dive, making everyone think the bear market has returned.
But in a bear market, that "first leg down" is wave 1 and the partial "rebound" which follows is wave 2. I say "partial" because the only rule which applies to wave 2 is that it cannot retrace 100% of wave 1. Meaning, the bear market rally cannot go above the previous market top.
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Thursday, September 01, 2022
What Don’t They Tell You About Online Trading? / InvestorEducation / Learn to Trade
By: Sumeet_Manhas
Traders come in all shapes and sizes, but we can narrow it down to two types. There are risk takers and those who play it safe. By definition, trading is a risky undertaking. It always has been. Despite our best efforts, it’s impossible to predict the direction and magnitude of price movements at any time. We use a variety of trading tools and resources to gauge the performance of the markets. These include technical and fundamental analysis.
By and large, trading platforms sell the hype with lofty promises of significant returns and comfortable retirements. Regardless, there are no guarantees. Stakeholders in the financial markets – particularly those with something to gain from unsuspecting traders and investors, are single-minded. They want to generate as much profit as possible in double-quick time. Hence the presence of fraudsters, shell companies, and less than honest financial reporting.
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Thursday, September 01, 2022
5 ADVANTAGES OF ONLINE MARKETING FOR YOUR JEWELRY BUSINESS / Companies / Marketing
By: Kavinesh_A
Online marketing is the smart and cost-effective way for new and growing businesses to reach their target audience. When you think about traditional marketing activities, advertisements on radio, TV, newspapers, and magazines are not exactly cheap. Moreover, these forms of media have a limited reach. Today’s digitally connected customers are online every minute of every day. They expect businesses to be online, where they can find them and see what they stand for.
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