Friday, January 04, 2019
The Last Time the Yield Curve Inverted, Stocks Soared 30%! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: John_Mauldin
Everybody is suddenly talking about the inverted yield curve.They’re right to do so, too, but alarm bells may be premature. Inversion is a historically reliable but early recession indicator. Even a fully inverted yield curve—which is not yet—isn’t saying recession is imminent.
What we see now is really more of a flattened yield curve. It has a smaller but still positive spread between short-term and long-term interest rates.
That’s not normal, but it’s also not a recession guarantee. However, when we combine this with other threats, it adds to the concerns.
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Friday, January 04, 2019
Oil Is At The Mercy Of Financial Markets / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
Oil prices regained more ground on Wednesday, pushed higher after equity markets rebounded from an initial selloff at the start of 2019 trading.
The price gains are not entirely convincing. WTI and Brent posted strong gains, each up more than 3 percent by midday in New York, but come largely after U.S. equity markets shook off an earlier bout of pessimism.
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Friday, January 04, 2019
China, Global Economy has Tipped over: The Surging Dollar and the Rallying Yen / Economics / Global Economy
By: FXCOT
We had noted of the coming storm in equity markets worldwide in our research to clients. A part of that research can be found herE: The coming storm . Also here: We did say. We also had noted of the fall in USDJPY rom 113 to 110 levels. But the pair fell even more and wiping away billions in retail margins.
We do suggest to forex traders to keep us boookmarked and also follow us on twitter. You can also register to be updated of important research we send so you are not caught on the wrong side of the market.
We run a highly successful forex trade copier. It is has made over +130% return in 2018. It has been running since 2010 and has made over 100% return every single year since 2010.
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Friday, January 04, 2019
Safe Havens are Surging. What this Means for Stocks 2019 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Troy_Bombardia
While the U.S. stock market has been trending downwards from December 2018 – present, safe havens (e.g. gold and Yen) have been going up.
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Friday, January 04, 2019
Will the Futures Markets Save Gold? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
The extreme bearish CoT positions necessarily imply the turning point in the gold market. Myth or fact? We invite you to read our today’s article about Comex positioning and find out whether futures will save gold.
Usually, the Comex is seen by precious metals investors as the main public enemy. After all, it’s a marketplace for all these short futures which allegedly suppress the gold prices. But now, the gold permabulls use the CoT report as an bullish argument in the discussion on the future of gold.
Why? Let’s look at the chart below. As you can see, the speculators (non-commercials) maintain very small long position, while the commercial traders are unusually close to being neutral. Although both groups have moderated their bets recently, their positioning is still extreme.
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Friday, January 04, 2019
The Men Who Stare at Charts: Decades of Disinflation & 7 Years Post-Op Twist / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Gary_Tanashian
I was going to look around to see if I could find a media article out there (complete with a TA trying to sound really important) that would be appropriate to be made fun of in our little Men Who Stare at Charts series. But then I decided to create my own chart, stare at it a little, post it and talk about it (hopefully not too self-importantly).
Introducing an all too busy long-term (monthly) view of the Gold/Silver ratio, along with some key nominal markets.
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Friday, January 04, 2019
What to do With Your Money in a Stocks Bear Market / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
By: Stephen_McBride
“Sell everything, I can’t take anymore!”
My stockbroker friend got a phone call from a hysterical client on Christmas Eve.
She was panicking over all the money she had lost in the market… and was demanding to sell her whole portfolio of stocks.
December, as you surely know, was horrendous for U.S. markets.
The S&P fell 10% for its worst December since 1931 during the Great Depression.
In fact, it was the S&P’s worst month overall since February 2009.
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Friday, January 04, 2019
Bitcoin: Another Bullish Attempt / Currencies / Bitcoin
By: Ryan_Wilday
Some time has passed since I wrote a more lengthy article, but not nearly as long a time as this gruelling bear market in cryptos - now 12 months long, and counting. So, in this article I’d like to rewind the clock a bit.
When we first saw our bull market top in cryptos, I did not fully expect a long bear market such as we’ve seen. While the March breakdown confirmed in my mind that the $3000 to $4700 zone would be visited again, I did not think it would take this long.
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Friday, January 04, 2019
Rising Cost of Moving Home / Personal_Finance / UK Housing
By: Submissions
It continues to be a time of uncertainty for the housing market with the ongoing Brexit saga. Therefore many people are choosing not to move home, when they usually would have done so. The cost of moving home also continues to rise as expected. Here we cover the breakdown of the average costs in 2018.
It is difficult to figure out an exact overall cost but based around the average house price in the UK, and the different services required for moving home, it is likely to add up to around £10,000. This of course would include the main areas of buying, selling and moving home. This is all based around the average house sold in the UK which in 2018 was £224,144 (according to the Property Price Index).
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Friday, January 04, 2019
Silver Price Trend Analysis 2019 / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This is the 3rd article in a series of 4 articles that concludes in a trend forecast for the Silver price 2019.
- Silver Price Trend Forecast 2018 Review
- Gold - Silver Ratio
- Silver Price Trend Analysis 2019
- Silver Price Trend Forecast Conclusion for 2019
The whole of this analysis was first been made available to Patrons who support my work.
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Friday, January 04, 2019
What to Know When Buying an Approved Used Land Rover 2019 / ConsumerWatch / Motoring
By: N_Walayat
Here's what you need to know when buying an approved used Land Rover in 2019. As my comprehensive mega review of after having owned and driven Land Rover's popular Discovery Sport's model in a HSE Black trim for over 1 year! Answering questions I should have asked a year earlier of what you would need to know before buying, after having put the car through its paces of what to expect under real world driving conditions, with the video covering the following topics -
Thursday, January 03, 2019
Gold Hedges Stock Market Falls In 2018 – Gains 2.7% In Euros and 3.8% In Pounds / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: GoldCore
– Gold acts as hedge in 2018 – up 2.7% and 3.8% in euros and pounds (see tables & charts)
– Stocks fall sharply – S&P500, FTSE & Euro Stoxx 5o fall 6.25%, 12.5% & 15% respectively
– Worst year for most international equity indices since 2008
– Sharp falls in economically sensitive commodities: oil (WTI), gasoline and lumber down 24.2%, 27% & 23.8% respectively
– Volatility surges as seen in VIX rising over 110%
– Volatility continues in 2019 as stocks globally fall with Apple falling 8% overnight
– Gold and silver likely to outperform risk assets again in 2019 (see Outlook 2019 Podcast)
Thursday, January 03, 2019
Will Technology Save Baby Boomers? / Politics / Demographics
By: Patrick_Watson
Baby Boomers get blamed for all kinds of problems.Much of the blame is unfair. But there is no doubt the first postwar generation brought a lot of changes—culturally, economically, and otherwise.
Last month, I helped John Mauldin write his Pyramids of Crisis letter. As a result of decisions made decades ago, there’s a rapidly growing proportion of older people in the US.
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Thursday, January 03, 2019
What are Stablecoins, Stable Coins or Stable Tokens about? / Currencies / BlockChain
By: Submissions
It is no secret that the crypto market has taken a serious hit this year in terms of the decline of crypto prices across the board - although fundamentally the crypto market is stronger than ever before, measured by the number of crypto projects that have made great progress in terms of product development, etc. - regardless of the percentage of failures (real or perceived).
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Thursday, January 03, 2019
Sri Lanka’s Short Term Outlook Is Hazy: Limited Pockets of Value Present / Economics / Asian Economies
By: Dylan_Waller
Sri Lanka 2019-2020 Outlook: Neutral Outlook for the Equity Market/Looking Elsewhere
The recent political crisis in Sri Lanka, coupled with its less favorable external position, has resulted in the depreciation of its currency and sell off in the stock market this year. Moody’s downgraded Sri Lanka’s sovereign credit to B2, while other countries funding Sri Lanka previously announced concerns due to the rising political risks. These issues all came at a time when Sri Lanka’s economy was beginning to rebound somewhat from the lows of 2017, though growth has still not been able to break 4% in recent quarters. Poor Q3 performance further exacerbates economic concern for the market, which should now not see a meaningful rebound until 2020. Sri Lanka’s external debt still remains a looming issue, and foreign exchange reserves have also been depleted somewhat in recent months compared to historical norms. FX reserves currently only cover around 3.8 months of imports and 54% of the country’s short term external debt. Notably, the increased political clarity seen in recent weeks will result in a gradual release of funding that was put on hold due to the political uncertainty, and paints a brighter economic picture. This would include funding from Japan, Millenium Challenge Corporation, and the IMF.
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Thursday, January 03, 2019
Stock Market Invstors Be Careful Going Into 2019 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Troy_Bombardia
With the start of a new year, some of these market studies are going to look at the stock market in 2018 and see what that implies for 2019.
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Thursday, January 03, 2019
Warning: The Stock Market Bounce Was a Head Fake / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Graham_Summers
In December, Jerome Powell confirmed that he is going to implement a financial reset.
That reset will crash stocks.
We know this because the Fed didn’t even HINT at tapering its Quantitative Tightening program at this latest Fed FOMC despite stocks staging the worst December since the Great Depression.
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Thursday, January 03, 2019
Gold and Dow Jones Big Profits from Big Channels / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019
By: readtheticker
Big profits come from big swings within the long term channels. Here are the big channels for gold (GLD) and Dow Jones (INDU). Readtheticker has price data for 100+ years for the important securities. The red arrows are points of interest. Gold holds support, demand present.
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Thursday, January 03, 2019
Money Metals 2019 Precious Metal Markets Outlook / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: MoneyMetals
Precious metals markets enter 2019 with an opportunity to shine. Several major bullish drivers are lining up to start the New Year – including technical, fundamental, monetary, and political drivers.
Before delving into each of them, let’s consider where we’ve been over the past 12 months.
To be frank, 2018 wasn’t a particularly bright year for gold and silver prices. Gold will finish with a slight loss; silver with a larger loss just shy of 10%.
Thursday, January 03, 2019
Britain's Tortured Commuters Hit With Rail Fare Hikes / ConsumerWatch / Travel & Holidays
By: Adnaan_Walayat
Britain's tortured commuters have been hit with their annual new year rail fare price hikes of typically 3.2% as an automatic reward for the rail companies for delivering another year of anxiety inducing bad rail services, one of daily delays and cancellations with the rail companies ready with a string of worthless excuses as they play pass the parcel between themselves and network rail.
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