Category: Japanese Yen
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Tuesday, November 05, 2019
Larger Bullish Move in USD/JPY May Just Be Getting Started / Currencies / Japanese Yen
By: MarketsToday
Summary
- Once current retracement is complete the USD/JPY has a good chance of exceeding last week’s high.
- Pair still in early stages of following through on bullish breakout of a large head and shoulders bottom.
- Upside target zone around $110.51 to $110.70.
Following an upside breakout of a large head and shoulders bottom pattern several weeks ago, the USD/JPY pulled back to test support of the neckline last week. So far, the area of the neckline has held as support around $107.88. Whether it continues to do so remains to be seen.
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Friday, January 11, 2019
Japanese Yen Outlook In 2019 / Currencies / Japanese Yen
By: ElliottWaveForecast
In this updated article and video below, we will follow up our view on Japanese Yen outlook in 2019.
We wrote an article in late December last year titled “Will Yen Continue to Outperform in 2019?” In the article, we said that Japanese Yen can continue to strengthen against other major currency pairs in 2019. In that article, we presented two daily technical charts below to backup our thesis: GBPJPY and CADJPY.
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Saturday, December 29, 2018
Will Japanese Yen Continue to Outperform in 2019? / Currencies / Japanese Yen
By: ElliottWaveForecast
Care to guess what is the best performing major currency in 2018? Chances are you will say that it’s the US Dollar. Although US Dollar is doing pretty well this year, the best performing currency is in fact the Japanese Yen. You can see in the table below that despite the Dollar Index rallying 4.9% as of Dec 27th, the Yen has outperformed the U.S Dollar by 1.43%. We can also see the U.S. Dollar has rallied against all the other major currencies, but the Japanese Yen has rallied even at a greater percentage against the same currency. For example, EURUSD has dropped 5.08%, meaning that U.S Dollar has rallied 5.08% against European Dollar this year. However, EURJPY dropped 6.5%, which means that Japanese Yen has rallied at a greater percentage against the European dollar.
Tuesday, September 11, 2018
USD/JPY - Profitable Opportunity Just Ahead of the Bulls? / Currencies / Japanese Yen
By: Nadia_Simmons
Despite the Thursday’s closure below the lower border of the consolidation and the Friday's drop to the lowest level for more than two weeks, the bulls kept cool and reborn in recent days, erasing almost entire recent move to the downside. Will the pro-growth formation that is drawing on the horizon encourage them to fight for higher values of USD/JPY in the coming days?
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Sunday, August 26, 2018
USD/JPY Forex Trend Forecast / Currencies / Japanese Yen
By: Austin_Galt
Pattern – I believe a top is in place at 113.21 and a new downtrend has begun with price in the process of putting in a lower high. While it is possible that the first lower high is already in place, it is my belief that is not the case and a 5 point broadening low formation is in play with price currently on its way up to a point 4 high which will be the lower high. Considering the likely point 5 low is much lower, I am essentially viewing this formation as just a continuation pattern. The point 2 highs is at 112.50 and price turning back down at that lower would set up a bearish lower double top and that is certainly a very valid possibility.
Tuesday, January 09, 2018
USD/JPY: Bank of Japan’s Yield Curve Control Could Weigh / Currencies / Japanese Yen
By: Submissions
Two years ago, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) took financial engineering into a whole new level by introducing the concept of “yield curve control” in an attempt to rescue the country’s declining economy. Basically, this policy aims to keep the central bank’s 10-year government bond yield at zero. In order to do this, BoJ has opted to buy enormous amounts of Japanese government bonds at 0.110 percent.
Tuesday, September 12, 2017
Here’s A Strong Case For A Strong Yen / Currencies / Japanese Yen
By: John_Mauldin
I am well-known for suggesting that Japan was a bug in search of a windshield and in predicting that the yen would go 200 to the dollar.
About four years ago, when the yen was at 100, I even purchased 10-year options, which were ridiculously cheap, with strike prices 20 to 30 yen higher. I was willing to be patient and wait for 10 years, if I had to.
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Wednesday, August 23, 2017
USDJPY Recoil Rally On The Cards / Currencies / Japanese Yen
By: Enda_Glynn
My Bias: LONG
Wave Structure: rally in wave [C]
Long term wave count: wave [C] is underway, upside to above 136.00
Important risk events: JPY: N/A. USD: New Home Sales, Crude Oil Inventories.
Tuesday, November 08, 2016
The Yen is Expected To Benefit From US Dollar Uncertainty Over Election Week / Currencies / Japanese Yen
By: Submissions
Adam Teen writes: The US dollar enters a crucial week against its rivals, including the Japanese Yen, as the volatile sessions are expected because the USA is officially going into polls on Tuesday 8th.
Strong economic performance data released over the past week did not quite convince investors that it is safe to hold the green buck over the next few sessions.
Friday, September 09, 2016
USD/JPY Could Be Supported by BOJ Policy Stance / Currencies / Japanese Yen
By: Submissions
easyMarkets writes: When the Bank of Japan released its last monetary policy statement, many analysts expected that they would follow suit with Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and the rest of the Japanese government by releasing a large stimulus plan. Prime Minister Abe’s plan gave a 28 trillion yen stimulus plan to bolster the economy. However, the Bank of Japan did not follow suit. Instead, they decided on increasing dollar-lending and exchange traded fund purchases. Despite negative interest rates, no changes were made to the base interest rate or to the current bond-purchase program.
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Sunday, July 31, 2016
Bank of Japan Disappointment Sets Stage For Further Yen Appreciation / Currencies / Japanese Yen
By: AnyOption
After the considerable fanfare that followed the Liberal Democrats sweeping victory in the upper house of Japanese Parliament, the monetary stimulus measures that have seen been unveiled have not been met with optimism as evidenced by the recent strengthening in the Yen. In a sign that confidence in the Bank of Japan continues to fall, and recently announcement of expanded JPY 6 trillion in ETF purchases failed to move the needle lower for the Yen. Anticipation of more aggressive stimulus measures including expanded easing and lower interest rates was not rewarded after the Central bank abstained from making serious adjustments to existing policy measures. Despite the pessimism that surrounded the decision, it may have been the best move considering the ongoing deflationary pressures that have not budged and weaker consumption metrics. However, with deteriorating economic fundamentals comes the added risk of another wave of Yen appreciation.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, July 20, 2016
Forex Trading: Investors Await Inside Bar Breakout for Clear Direction in USD/JPY / Currencies / Japanese Yen
By: Richard_Cox
The US Dollar (USD) extended upside movement against the Japanese Yen (JPY) on Thursday, increasing the price of USD/JPY to more than 105.00 as bulls gain strength. The technical bias however remains bearish because of a Lower Low in the recent downside move. The pair has formed a great inside bar trade setup after the emergence of a giant candle on 24th June amid Brexit vote. A breakout through the aforementioned candle will provide clear direction for the pair.
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Tuesday, June 28, 2016
Brexit’s Big Loser? Japan / Currencies / Japanese Yen
By: John_Rubino
One of the first results of Britain’s voting to leave the European Union was a sharply lower pound. Which means the UK is now winning the currency war. Henceforth its exports will be cheaper around the world, enabling its major companies to sell more stuff, make more money and hire more people. Inflation will pop, lessening the burden of government and consumer debts, and — other things being equal — growth will be faster.
Monday, May 23, 2016
Japan and US at G7 – Agree to Disagree / Currencies / Japanese Yen
By: Dan_Norcini
The big Pow-Pow taking place in Japan with the G7 ( Group of Seven) finance ministers yielded what most of us already expected – no agreement whatsoever.
I found Japanese Finance Minister Taro Aso’s remarks quite revealing. His view is that the recent movements in the Yen have been “excessive”. “The movement seen over the past several weeks can’t be described as ‘orderly,” he noted.
He noted that “one-sided, speculative trades” have been behind some of the move higher in the Yen. The Japanese find such things undesirable.
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Sunday, January 31, 2016
USD-JPY Back In Bullish Mode / Currencies / Japanese Yen
By: Austin_Galt
Many years from now, the people of Japan will tell their children and grandchildren of a time long since past when interest rates were negative and you actually had to pay the bank to give them money. The kids will go "Wow" in amazement and disbelief.
The Bank of Japan announced this exact thing the past week and this is the present we currently live in and is likely to be the case for the foreseeable future. This should see the USDJPY now trade higher.
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Monday, January 25, 2016
USDJPY: Big Correction Near Completion / Currencies / Japanese Yen
By: Gregor_Horvat
USDJPY is falling sharply and very aggressively towards the levels of August of 2015, but it's still too soon to confirm if wave four will be a triangle or a flat. It can be both as long as wave A) holds, but we still think that sooner or later bears will slow down and that price will rally in three legs; either from here or from around 114.00. So for now, trend is still down, but key for bulls will be a bullish reversal in five waves on lower time frames. Only then we can start looking immediately higher again.
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Saturday, September 12, 2015
Why the Japanese Yen's Bull Run REALLY Ended / Currencies / Japanese Yen
By: EWI
Monetary "Yentervention" did not cause the currency's depreciation -- it only COINCIDED with it
Talk about "star" wars.
"Asia's biggest action star" Donnie Yen was just cast in the next installment of the never-ending Star Wars movie franchise. Mr. Yen, in case you aren't aware, is known as "the strongest man in the entire universe." (Huffington Post)
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Monday, August 17, 2015
USDJPY At Critical Juncture / Currencies / Japanese Yen
By: Austin_Galt
Previously, I thought the high for the USDJPY was in place and a correction was now underway. It still may be. Price is now at a critical juncture and the potential exists for one last marginal false break high. Let's examine the situation using the weekly chart.
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Friday, July 10, 2015
USDJPY Correction Underway / Currencies / Japanese Yen
By: Austin_Galt
The USDJPY currency pair has traded exactly as laid out in previous client analysis and a correction now appears underway. Let's analyse both the medium term and long term pictures using the weekly and yearly charts.
Tuesday, June 16, 2015
USDJPY Rare 40-Month Cycle / Currencies / Japanese Yen
By: Ashraf_Laidi
While markets' attention is placed on the latest rumour from German tabloids and the habitual Greek denials, let's focus on the other USD pair.
When USDJPY hit the 125.86 high earlier this month, it was its highest level since June 2002. The 65% climb from the February 2012 lows of 76.03 lasted took 40 months to occur, matching the duration of the 85% rise from April 1995 low to this month's high.
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Thursday, June 11, 2015
Japanese Yen – Is Kuroda trying to talk it up? / Currencies / Japanese Yen
By: Dan_Norcini
Last night in the Asian trading session, Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda made some remarks, which I found rather unusual.
Here is the actual quote:
“Once an increase in the U.S. interest rate is priced into the market, the actual action won’t necessarily lead to a further rise of the Dollar again the Yen”.
Tuesday, May 05, 2015
Japanese Yen and U.S. Dollar / Currencies / Japanese Yen
By: EWI
A different way to look at familiar forex markets
Elliott Wave International's Alexandra Lienhard recently sat down with the editor of our Currency Pro Service, Jim Martens.
Learn what Jim sees next for such popular forex markets as Japanese yen (USDJPY) as well as the U.S. dollar.
Thursday, March 26, 2015
USD JPY Shorts Break Down / Currencies / Japanese Yen
By: Ashraf_Laidi
The charts below show net speculative shorts in JPY vs. USD have broken out of a 4-year channel (signifying a potential turn), while the chart on the right shows protracted yen weakness will inevitably restore the trade balance into surplus for the first time in 4 years.
Thursday, December 04, 2014
Japan Abenomics From Faith to Failure to Stop Deflation / Currencies / Japanese Yen
By: EWI
Why the biggest monetary stimulus effort in the world did NOT stop deflation in its tracks
When Shinzo Abe became the Prime Minister of Japan in December 2012, he was regarded with the kind of reverence that politicians dream about. He was featured in a hit pop song ("Abeno Mix"), hailed as a "samurai warrior," and featured on the May 2013 The Economist cover as none other than Superman.
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Tuesday, November 18, 2014
How High Could USD/JPY Go? / Currencies / Japanese Yen
By: Nadia_Simmons
Yesterday, official data showed that annualized Japan's gross domestic product dropped by 1.6% in the third quarter, missing economists‘ forecast of a 2.3% growth and following a 7.3% drop in the second quarter, which puts the country in a recession. In these circumstances USD/JPY extended gains and hit a fresh multi-year high of 117.04. How high could the exchange rate go?
Thursday, September 25, 2014
Potential Bounce in the Japanese Yen / Currencies / Japanese Yen
By: DailyWealth
Brett Eversole writes: When the Prime Minister of Japan says he's going to debase the yen, it's hard to be on the opposite side of the trade...
Governments aren't good at a lot of things. But they are good at creating inflation and pummeling their currencies. And that's exactly what we're seeing in Japan today.
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Tuesday, September 09, 2014
What's With the Japanese Yen? / Currencies / Japanese Yen
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
The Yen has morphed into a different pattern than I had originally portrayed. Not that there weren’t clues already there, but the first Triangle formation threw me off, thinking that the decline in the Yen was complete on January 10, 2014. Usually Triangles occur in fourth waves. However, they also occur in B waves.
Thursday, August 28, 2014
USD-JPY Japanese Yen Set For Big Reversal / Currencies / Japanese Yen
By: Austin_Galt
Price is now at the key resistance area flagged in my last USDJPY report. So is it likely to turn back down or bust higher? Let’s have a look at the charts.
Friday, July 18, 2014
USD-JPY Rally Set To Fizzle / Currencies / Japanese Yen
By: Austin_Galt
In my last article on the USDJPY back in May, I identified a double bottom formation. Double bottoms in an uptrend are generally great buy opportunities and can leady to large move higher. However, the double bottom in the USDJPY at 100.76 has been quite flat. Let’s take a look at the daily chart to see what we’re dealing with.
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Wednesday, May 28, 2014
USD/JPY Trapped In Corrective Price Action? / Currencies / Japanese Yen
By: Gregor_Horvat
The USD/JPY is turning into a temporary recovery, and the reason is slow and overlapping price action at the late stage of recent decline that looks like an ending diagonal placed in wave C position, final leg of a three wave fall from 104.11. Therefore, we suspect that the USD/JPY is trapped in some bigger corrective price action, probably a triangle, and that pair will continue sideways or even slightly higher in the next couple of days. We expect a three wave rise up in wave C), back to 103.00.
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Friday, May 23, 2014
USDJPY Set For New Highs / Currencies / Japanese Yen
By: Submissions
Austin Galt writes: Let’s begin by taking a look at the big picture, the yearly chart.
YEARLY CHART
Here we can see a powerful up move started in 2012, went full bore in 2013 and seems to have stagnated in 2014. It appears that a longterm bear market is in force consisting of lower lows and lower highs and so far the last few years of trading hasn’t damaged that technical picture.
Monday, May 19, 2014
USD/JPY: Downtrend Continuation In View / Currencies / Japanese Yen
By: Gregor_Horvat
USD/JPY has turned down last week and fell beneath 101.42 after broken channel line (circled zone). As such, corrective rally up to 102.36 appears complete which means that traders should be aware of a downtrend continuation in days ahead, ideally close to 100. Invalidation level is now at 102.36, but break above 102.00 would already threaten the bearish look.
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Wednesday, May 07, 2014
USD/JPY Ignition / Currencies / Japanese Yen
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
Ignition...liftoff! USD/JPY rose from 101.43 at the low to 101.75 at 8:00 am. At 8:00 am SPX futures started to ramp. SPX pre-market is up 7 points and may go to Short-term resistance at 1876.00 or 17-day resistance at 1878.00 (not shown).
There is some concern that the decline so far is not impulsive. The best explanation why is that the shallow clustering of supports temporarily prevent the declines from making the longer declines typical in an impulse. Another explanation is that SPX may be making a Leading Diagonal wave. Something else may be happening if the ramp goes above 1885.51.
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Wednesday, February 12, 2014
USD/JPY: Temporary Recovery / Currencies / Japanese Yen
By: Gregor_Horvat
USD/JPY found a support at the end of last week around 100.74 from where pair recovered for around 200 pips so we suspect that pair completed first five wave decline from 105.34 labeled as leading diagonal. As such, we believe that pair is in bearish mode, but before downtrend may resume we expect a three wave pullback, ideally up to 103.30/60 resistance area. We see pair now moving sideways in irregular wave (b) that may test 101.40/60 zone and then send price up in wave (c).
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Wednesday, February 12, 2014
EUR/JPY: Yen Crosses Rallying Nicely / Currencies / Japanese Yen
By: Gregor_Horvat
Yen crosses are rallying nicely for the last few days since the S&P500 has turned up last week. We can see very tight correlation between these two markets where structures on both suggests more upside. For FX traders, the EUR/JPY will definitely be interesting for longs as pair reversed in five waves from the lows. However, patient traders will wait on pullbacks and better price entries. Ideal scenario would be a three wave set-back to 138.10-138.90 area before market turns up for wave C.
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Tuesday, November 19, 2013
When Will the Japanese Yen be Ready to Fall Again? / Currencies / Japanese Yen
By: Submissions
Adam Lemon writes: The biggest story in Forex over the past 12 months – or to put it another way, the most profitable story in Forex over the past 12 months – was the dramatic weakening in both the JPY and the AUD.
Leaving the AUD to one side and focusing on JPY, which is more liquid and at the heart of the story, the narrative went something like this: Japan is in trouble, facing a future with an ageing, shrinking population and a frightened, unproductive younger generation traumatized by years of stagnation. Constitutionally unwilling to countenance mass immigration, Japan has no choice but to try to inflate away its problems by engineering a dramatic depreciation of its currency.
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Friday, November 01, 2013
USD-JPY Could Be A Good Buy If US Bonds Will Be Trading Lower / Currencies / Japanese Yen
By: Gregor_Horvat
On the 5 year US notes we can count five waves up from the lows so sooner or later larger downward pullback will occur in three legs. This means that US yield will should be moving to the upside which is supportive for the USDJPY.
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Thursday, October 10, 2013
Rally For USD/JPY While 10 Year US Treasuries Move Lower / Currencies / Japanese Yen
By: Gregor_Horvat
US Bonds were trading lower in the last two sessions after the minutes of the Federal Reserve showed that most policymakers still favor a tapering program this year. But sell-off on bonds came on news that QE could end in mid-2014. USD was firstly down on the news, but then it recovered during the Asian trading hour. However, EUR/USD is again finding some bid, so no real direction at the moment. Meanwhile the S&P Futures are rallying.
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Monday, October 07, 2013
Japanese Yen USD Elliott Wave Forecast : Bullish Reversal Could Be Near By / Currencies / Japanese Yen
By: Gregor_Horvat
USDJPY did not accelerate to the upside yet, so it seems that we will have to wait on a bullish price action a little longer, As such, we adjusted the wave count and suspect that pair is in final stages of a wave (4) now. We however are still observing a triangle that should be near completion. We see wave E) down that could look for a bottom around 97.00 area from where we could reverse up in wave (5). An impulsive rally from current zone would be a confirmation for a new bullish period on USDJPY.
Wednesday, August 21, 2013
Elliott Wave Analysis: USDJPY Is Showing a Bullish Structure / Currencies / Japanese Yen
By: Gregor_Horvat
USDJPY has made three waves of a pull-back from latest high that could be near completion as price tested and already reversed from very important 61.8% Fibonacci support level. We expect to see a move higher from here, ideally in impulsive fashion back to 98.64.
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Tuesday, May 14, 2013
Japanese Government Green Light to Crush Yen, How High Will U.S. Dollar Fly? / Currencies / Japanese Yen
By: Gary_Dorsch
The Wise Sages of Ancient days used to say, “The fate of a Liar, is that nobody believes him, - even when he’s speaking the truth!” Such is the predicament of Japan’s propaganda artists, including the Prime Minister, the Finance minister, and central bank chief, who are all trying to cover-up their boldest scheme yet, to crush the value of the Japanese yen, against the currencies of its major trading partners. On May 11th, the finance chiefs of the Group of Seven (G-7) gave Tokyo the green light to continue with its radical QE scheme, which has already led to a -24% devaluation of the yen against the US-dollar, and a -33% devaluation against the Euro, since market savvy traders first got wind of the plot in late November.
In an age when ruling coalitions of every political stripe distort the truth to promote their self interests, it’s hardly surprising that Japan’s ruling LDP party is steadfastly denying that it’s engaging in a “beggar thy neighbor” devaluation of its currency. By the same token, Tokyo’s fraudulent claim that its economy is still plagued by a negative rate of inflation (deflation), is so wildly at odds with reality that it’s routinely regarded with cynicism and disbelief.
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Tuesday, May 14, 2013
USD/JPY Could Be In Final Stages Of An Uptrend / Currencies / Japanese Yen
By: ForexPros
The USD/JPY broke higher last week, out of a triangle pattern that we have been tracking since mid-April. This triangle has been placed in wave four, so we must be aware of a bearish reversal in the next few days/weeks; this type of patterns always occurs prior to the final move of the larger trend. So current leg up should be our final leg; most-likely wave 5 of an ending diagonal.
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Thursday, April 04, 2013
Is Now the Time for Japanese Yen Bears To Get Back In? / Currencies / Japanese Yen
By: Simit_Patel
We've been making the bear case for the Yen for some time now -- see our Japan archive, and our Guide to the Japanese Debt Crisis. Over the past three weeks -- since March 11 to be precise -- the Yen has been strengthening. Which begs the question: when will be a good time for Yen bears to speculate on the resumption of a downwards trend? Or is a larger move to the downside still to come?
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Monday, January 28, 2013
Has 2013 Currency Crisis Begun? / Currencies / Japanese Yen
By: Toby_Connor
As many of you who have read my work in the past know, I expect the eventual endgame to this whole Keynesian monetary experiment that has been going on ever since World War II to finally terminate in a global currency crisis. I'm starting to wonder if we aren't seeing the first domino start to topple.
I'm talking about the Japanese Yen of course.
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Tuesday, January 22, 2013
Is the Japanese Yen FINALLY Ready for a Pullback? / Currencies / Japanese Yen
By: Simit_Patel
Many of us here on InformedTrades have been waiting for a pullback in the Yen, under the belief that the Yen is headed much lower. Our infographic on Japan as well as this video from ShortJapanDebt, explains all the rationale for the belief in a sustained devaluation of the yen; to summarize, here are the key reasons:
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Tuesday, January 22, 2013
Is the Japanese Yen Heading for a Big Fall? / Currencies / Japanese Yen
By: Money_Morning
Jeff Uscher writes: The Japanese yen has already fallen by more than 12% against the U.S. dollar since Nov. 1, 2012 - and it could still have further to fall.
That's mainly because the Bank of Japan appears likely to go along with the wishes of the Liberal Democratic Party, led by newly elected Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, and step up its attempts to eliminate deflation by using "unlimited easing" and setting a 2% inflation target.
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Sunday, January 13, 2013
The Japanese Yen Trade Is Exporting Inflation to China / Currencies / Japanese Yen
By: EconMatters
3-Month Depreciating Yen Trade
The 3 month Japanese Yen trade which every fund manager from San Diego to Hong Kong has taken part in will sure help Japanese exporters and help spur more economic activity in what has been a real laggard in both business competiveness, and the race to weaken their currency that has occurred during the last five years.
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Friday, December 14, 2012
Elliott Wave Analysis of USD/JPY / Currencies / Japanese Yen
By: WavePatternTraders
The relentless moves in the JPY pairs, is impressive to say the least, truly a remarkable run we have seen in some of the JPY crosses, some pairs like the EURJPY and GBPJPY have seen massive gains.
Although not one to be outdone the USDJPY has followed in sync, only now I think it’s nearing a potential high that should yield a decent pullback of 200-250 pips.
Wednesday, November 28, 2012
Is the Japanese Yen Doomed? / Currencies / Japanese Yen
By: Axel_Merk
Because of Japan’s massive public debt burden, pundits have called for the demise of the Japanese yen for years. Are the yen’s fortunes finally changing? Our analysis shows that the days of the yen being perceived as a safe haven may soon be over. Let us elaborate.
Friday, November 18, 2011
Japanese Yen Set For Major Reversal / Currencies / Japanese Yen
By: Colin_Twiggs
This is a 20-year (monthly) chart of the US dollar against the Japanese yen. The dollar has declined in a primary down-trend since early 2008. Long-term support at 80 failed to halt the fall and the greenback is now ranging between ¥75 and ¥80.
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Friday, August 05, 2011
Will Japan Currency Intervention Work? / Currencies / Japanese Yen
By: Asha_Bangalore
The yen closed at 78.74 per dollar on March 17 following the earthquake and tsunami on March 11; a similar strengthening occurred with respect to the euro also at this time. The yen was trading around 82 yen per dollar prior to the natural disaster. The strengthening of the yen led to a massive coordinated intervention of central banks in currency markets by March 18. The intervention was successful in bringing about a depreciation of the yen and the yen/dollar exchange rate closed at 85.26 on April 6.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, March 29, 2011
Japanese Yen Big Surprise / Currencies / Japanese Yen
By: Tony_Caldaro
As a followup to our recent long term report on the Japan Nikkei equity index we present our a long term analysis on the JPYUSD. The Yen is a western economy currency which generally follows the CHFUSD long term currency cycle model, as opposed to commodity sensitive currencies like the AUDUSD, CADUSD and ZARUSD. The CHFUSD model displays Cyclical tops and bottoms every 16-17 years, with the bottoms occurring only 6-7 years after the tops. The long term charts of the JPYUSD display this currency cycle quite well with a slight variation at the lows.
Friday, March 25, 2011
Recent Blow-off Move in USD/JPY? / Currencies / Japanese Yen
By: Seven_Days_Ahead
After some of the dust has settled since last week’s sharp, brief sell-off some initial ideas have formulated. These might begin to excite the bulls, but it is too early to draw conclusions yet.
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Wednesday, March 23, 2011
Japanese Currency Intervention, How Does Disaster Promote a Strong Currency? / Currencies / Japanese Yen
By: Robert_Murphy
After the catastrophic earthquake, the tsunami, and the nuclear-reactor scares, the Japanese currency ironically strengthened quite sharply. In response, the Bank of Japan and other major central banks last week launched a coordinated "intervention" into the currency markets in order to intentionally weaken the yen.
Sunday, March 20, 2011
Japanese Yen: G7 Intervention vs Laissez-faire / Currencies / Japanese Yen
By: Dian_L_Chu
The world's fifth-largest 9.0 magnitude quake and the resulted tsunami not only devastated Japan, but also wreak havoc in the Japanese stock market. The worst two-day rout in 40 years caused a 6.2% drop in Nikkei share index, wiping £90 billion (roughly $145.45 billion) off stocks and shares traded there, reported The Telegraph.
Saturday, March 19, 2011
Quake Response Puts Yen on the Line / Currencies / Japanese Yen
By: Peter_Schiff
One of the immediate financial consequences of the catastrophic Japanese earthquake is that Japan needs to call on its huge cache of foreign exchange reserves to rebuild its shattered infrastructure. To pay for domestic projects, Japan will require yen - not dollars, euros or Swiss francs. As a result of these conversions, the yen rallied considerably after the quake struck.
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Friday, March 18, 2011
Eye on the Yen, Watching ProShares UltraShort Yen (YCS) / Currencies / Japanese Yen
By: Mike_Paulenoff
Indeed, as we told subscribers to expect, the G-7 (US, Japan, Germany, France, the UK, Italy and Canada) decided to intervene with the Bank of Japan on Thursday to "stabilize" the Yen.
Now the real battle begins, but as I have mentioned lately, the plight of the Yen since 2008 (its relentless climb, that is) in defiance of otherwise dismal Japan fundamentals, which were negatively exacerbated by the recent earthquake and tsunami damage, desperately calls for a lower currency to enable the Japanese economy, the Japanese Government, and its dynamic people to recover.
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Friday, March 18, 2011
G7 Yen 'No-Buy' Zone, UN Libya No-Fly Zone / Currencies / Japanese Yen
By: Ashraf_Laidi
Before we get into today's yen action, our regular readers and followers on Twitter were warned of a potential China tightening action at 7:24 am GMT (over 3 hours before it materialized) when most pundits were mulling the details of the yen intervention. The PBOC raised its reserve requirement ratio by 50-bps to 20% as part of its gradualist approach to reining in lending and combating inflation.
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Friday, March 18, 2011
Japanese Banking Crisis is Inevitable Despite G7 Currency Market Intervention / Currencies / Japanese Yen
By: Money_Morning
Keith Fitz-Gerald writes: The United States and Canada today (Friday) joined other Group of Seven (G-7) nations to intervene as a means of weakening the Japanese yen in an effort to help Japan deal with last week's catastrophic earthquake and tsunami.
This G-7 intervention is a substantial development, although there are precious few details, since none of the world's central bankers (a list that includes the U.S. Federal Reserve) have commented on exactly what "intervention" entails. Nor have they identified what currencies will be involved.
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Thursday, March 17, 2011
Why the Yen Should Become Stronger, Not Weaker, Japan Government Faces Debt Crisis / Currencies / Japanese Yen
By: ECR_Research
Renate van Ginderen writes: Japan’s Economics Minister Kaoru Yosano stressed that damage from last week's devastating earth quake and tsunami to the country's economy would be limited. However, what he did not mention was that the adverse effects from damaged nuclear plants are likely to be much bigger.
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Saturday, February 19, 2011
Japanese Yen Bear Run Begins? / Currencies / Japanese Yen
By: Justin_John
John Thomas, Mad Hedge Fund Trader, loathes YEN. He has been negative for over 6 months. I do not disagree with him. I think YEN is putting in a major top in place for maybe years and we can see a near 30-40% correction in YEN over the next 24 months. The return could be higher against the EURO which is probably going to be the best performing currency in the next 24 months with constant rate hikes to fight a surging commodity inflation.
Monday, February 14, 2011
Currency Trading Update, Yen is the Pick to Short / Currencies / Japanese Yen
By: Justin_John
YEN and Nikkei Trade: Where is YEN going?
Yen is at 120 levels which represent a multi decade high. There are very few things out there which are hitting a multi decade tops. Yen was 120 levels in 1995 after which it took a wild swing down to hit a bottom at 1998. After nearly 9 years of consolidation, YEN broke out and ran away to 120 levels in the last 4 years. It has been an extraordinary run, one which has confused many. Bill Gross has been on record saying that Japan is worthless piece of crap. Yen needs to be shorted against every high yielding currency.
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Tuesday, November 02, 2010
Explaining Japanese Yen Strength Despite Weak Economy / Currencies / Japanese Yen
By: Kieran_Osborne
For many, the strength of the Japanese yen is a conundrum. How can the currency of a country with such a weak economy, such a high level of debt, weak leadership, poor demographics, combined with an ever deteriorating economic outlook be so strong? Many market participants did not anticipate that the yen would demonstrate such strength 24 months ago. Now, many commentators focus on Japan’s “safe haven” status as a key reason why the currency has appreciated.
Sunday, September 19, 2010
Biggest Ever Yen Intervention, 25% Over Valued Agains the Dollar / Currencies / Japanese Yen
By: Bryan_Rich
Last week, I pointed to the challenges facing Switzerland and Japan’s currencies. As for the yen, I said that nothing short of actual intervention would relieve the pressure on its exporters. I also said that I expected it to happen.
And it did.
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Wednesday, September 15, 2010
Currency Intervention Madness, Japan Intervenes to Weaken the Yen / Currencies / Japanese Yen
By: Mike_Shedlock
After months of attempting to talk the Yen down, Japan Intervenes First Time Since ’04 to Rein in Yen.
Read full article... Read full article...Japan intervened in the foreign-exchange market for the first time since 2004 after a surge in the yen to the strongest against the dollar in 15 years threatened to stunt the nation’s economic recovery.
Saturday, August 07, 2010
Japanese Yen on Central Bank Intervention Watch / Currencies / Japanese Yen
By: Bryan_Rich
As major global economies are beginning to feel the threat of another bout with recession, Japan is dealing with an extra challenge: An unwelcomed strong currency.
Weak structural economic fundamentals around the world and tough austerity are proving to squash the feeble recovery. And the likelihood of central banks returning to, or intensifying, the easy money policies are growing.
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Saturday, July 17, 2010
Japanese Yen Draws Safe Haven Share / Currencies / Japanese Yen
By: Ashraf_Laidi
As long as US economic data shows fresh round of deterioration, and the Eurozone is able to supress event risk on the sovereign front, the Japanese yen shall cotinue to draw the lion's share of risk-aversion flows away from the USD. But let's first go over the USD's recent decline before further dissecting the yen flows.
Wednesday, March 10, 2010
Selling the Japanese Yen / Currencies / Japanese Yen
By: Mike_Paulenoff
Apart from the fact that apparently the equity market never goes down anymore, the potentially most exciting technical set-up is selling YEN (buying USD/YEN) or being long, or adding to longs, in the UltraShort Yen ProShares (NYSE: YCS).
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Tuesday, January 19, 2010
Japanese Yen's Kamikaze Flight Trajectory / Currencies / Japanese Yen
By: Axel_Merk
Forget about the flight to the dollar at the peak of the financial crisis: the yen was the ultimate beneficiary. The endlessly quoted unwinding of the carry trade was a factor, but there may have been a more important force at play. As that force may now be under increased pressure, the yen may be in trouble. The force we are talking about is the free market.
Saturday, December 05, 2009
Has the Japanese Yen Topped? / Currencies / Japanese Yen
By: Bryan_Rich
The Japanese yen has been the best performing currency over the past two-and-a-half years. Since the unraveling of the subprime mortgage market and the subsequent peak in the carry trade, the yen has soared 38 percent against the U.S. dollar, 21 percent against the euro, 41 percent against the British pound and 23 percent against the well-loved high-yielder, the Australian dollar.
Thursday, December 03, 2009
Japanese Yen Reaches 14 Year High Against U.S. Dollar / Currencies / Japanese Yen
By: LiveCharts
The US dollar continues to find major low points to reach against major foreign currencies and other speculative investments. Gold is now over $1,200 with some top analysts calling for a quick move through the $2,000 level in the near future. Oil remains near $80.
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Friday, November 27, 2009
The Yen's Perfect Storm / Currencies / Japanese Yen
By: Ashraf_Laidi
The Yen's Perfect Storm escalated overnight amid the combination of unexpected decline in Japanese unemployment and falling global equity futures following the Dubai fallout. FX traders shall be eager to find out how Japanese officials will follow up on their threats to stabilize their soaring currency in the midst of the latest bout of global risk aversion, which was bound to emerge considering equity indices' largely-dollar driven gains (see previous notes on unsustainability of currency-driven stock rallies).
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Tuesday, November 10, 2009
Don't Forget the Yen, Especially During Risk Aversion / Currencies / Japanese Yen
By: Ashraf_Laidi
Much has been said about the US dollar's role as a funding currency for carry trades and its well publicized rebound during the most recent episode of risk aversion (Oct 21-Nov 2). But once again, it was the Japanese yen that outperformed the US dollar as well as all major currencies. This helps explains why the emerging gains in non-USD currencies (EUR, GBP, AUD, CAD etc) remain limited against the JPY when equity markets are on the rise and are quick to lose ground vs. JPY than against USD. Both USD and JPY pay ultra low interest rates, with 3-month LIBOR at 0.27% and 0.32% respectively. But the medium term future prospects remain brighter for JPY relative to USD.
Tuesday, October 13, 2009
Will Japanese Government Intervene to Weaken the Strong Yen? / Currencies / Japanese Yen
By: Bryan_Rich
In the summer of 2007, Bear Stearns confessed it had spent $3.2 billion bailing out two of its funds that were exposed to the sub-prime market. At the same time, the yen carry trade marked its top. Soon thereafter, Bear Stearns went belly up, and the needle on the world’s sentiment shifted towards risk aversion.
Thursday, October 01, 2009
Japanese Politics and the Yen / Politics / Japanese Yen
By: Axel_Merk
The U.S. dollar has been getting a beating from all sides, but its woes may be far from over – recent developments in Japan, China, Germany and the United Kingdom, not to speak of domestic developments in the U.S., are pointing to a rocky road ahead. Today’s focus is on Japan and, more specifically, how a country on a downward economic spiral can have a strong currency.
Wednesday, July 08, 2009
Japanese Yen, JPY Moving Higher / Currencies / Japanese Yen
By: Frederic_Simons
After having remained in a seemingly directionless trading range within the last few weeks, the price of the Japanese Yen is currently behaving in a bullish way, as evidenced by its rising prices in the last days (rising prices in the Japanese Yen Future are mirrored by falling prices in USD/JPY).
Friday, July 03, 2009
Japanese Yen: Resumption of the Bull Market ? / Currencies / Japanese Yen
By: Frederic_Simons
Until the middle of 2007, the Japanese Yen was notoriously weak, as the selling of this low yielding currency was funding the purchase of higher yielding currencies, ranging from the British Pound to the Australian and New Zealand Dollar and many emerging market currencies. The so-called carry trade yielded investors the interest rate difference between what they paid for borrowing Yen, and what they earned for the investment in high-yield currencies, ie between 3 and 10 percent annually. And since the carry trade was mostly done at a high leverage, the carry trade became a fantastic cash-cow during the days of easy money and complacency.
Tuesday, February 24, 2009
Yen Could Crash Following Collapsing Japanese Economy / Currencies / Japanese Yen
By: Money_Morning
Keith Fitz-Gerald writes: Historically speaking, the Japanese yen has proved to be a safe haven against global turmoil. Right now, however, Japan's economy is among the worst hit of all the global powers. It is ill prepared to weather the global storm and it's falling like a rock.
That's why, this time around, as Japan's economy falls away, I think there's a very good chance the yen could drop as well.
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Friday, December 19, 2008
Japan Announces Currency and Stock Market Intervention / Currencies / Japanese Yen
By: Mike_Shedlock
Countries are now playing a game of "Top This" to see who can do the dumbest things. Please consider the following: Japan plans to buy $227 billion in shares to boost market
Japan's government said Thursday it is submitting a bill to parliament allowing for the purchase of 20 trillion yen ($227 billion) in stock to help stabilize the Japanese stock market, Kyodo news reported. Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, November 09, 2008
Jump on Board the Global Capital Stampede to the Japanese Yen / Currencies / Japanese Yen
By: Money_and_Markets
Jack Crooks writes: Last year I dedicated several Money and Markets columns solely to my expectations for the Japanese yen carry trade to unwind. But since that trend took a breather in the middle of this year, I haven't been keeping you up to speed.
Let me get you caught up today.
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Friday, July 11, 2008
US Dollar / Japanese Yen Homing in On Break Below 105 / Currencies / Japanese Yen
By: Black_Swan
A subscriber recently emailed us the other day and asked, “What happened to the Japanese yen?”
There was nothing else written in the email except that. And since nothing notable has really happened to the Japanese yen in the last few months, I can only assume he was asking why the Japanese yen disappeared from our radar.
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Wednesday, June 11, 2008
Yen vs. SPU– Break down of Inverse Relationship / Currencies / Japanese Yen
By: Black_Swan
Give your risk thermometer a good shaking because mine are giving me conflicting readouts. Stocks, the primary measure of risk-taking levels in the financial system, are tumbling. The Japanese yen, now a secondary measure of risk-taking levels in the financial system, is also tumbling.Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, January 19, 2008
Housing Bubble Bursts, Subprime Loans Implode, Recession Coming - Buy the YEN! / Currencies / Japanese Yen
By: Money_and_Markets
Jack Crooks writes: I wish I had a dollar, or maybe a euro, for every time an analyst equated the current subprime mortgage crisis to the Asian financial crisis, and every time the housing bubble was likened to the tech bubble.
With the "R" word threatening in 2008, analysts and economists find themselves turning to earlier events for guidance.
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Sunday, December 02, 2007
Japanese Yen Will Surge Higher Than Most Think Possible! / Currencies / Japanese Yen
By: Money_and_Markets
The Japanese yen is like a global risk thermometer. When it's going up, investors are nervous.
And now, not only has the yen been going up ... but I think the mercury will soon break through the top of the glass.
Reason: The yen carry trade is reversing.
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Friday, October 26, 2007
Sovereign Wealth Funds Are A Booster Shot for the Yen / Currencies / Japanese Yen
By: Money_and_Markets
Jack Crooks writes: It's often been said that when the U.S. sneezes, economies around the world catch a cold.
But even as health warnings of a 'superbug' staph infection spread across the U.S., our weakened economy appears much less contagious to the outside world than it has in years past.
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Thursday, October 18, 2007
US Dollar Continues to Give Way Against Japanese Yen / Currencies / Japanese Yen
By: Mike_Paulenoff
The dollar is very weak in general today versus both the euro and even the yen, which could be a change of profile, as in a more generalized, global exodus out of the greenback that will get the attention of the G-7 monetary authorities. Be that as it may, today's up-gap in the CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust (NYSE: FXY) reflects yen strength as the currency heads for a test of the 114 Aug-Oct support line. Right now the dollar is trading at 115.60/65, and my work argues for downside continuation against the yen, which will lift the FXY over the 86.70 level on the way to 88.00 immediately thereafter.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, September 14, 2007
US Dollar / Yen - One of the Greatest Market Moves of All Time / Currencies / Japanese Yen
By: Money_and_Markets
Martin here with a change in our line-up that will make a lot of readers very happy: The dollar's decline is now so critical — and surging foreign currencies so potentially profitable — that we have decided to add a tremendous new resource for Money and Markets readers:
Our currency expert, Jack Crooks, will be here for you each Friday morning with his timely insights on the dollar, foreign currencies, international markets, and everything they impact.
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Friday, August 24, 2007
Japanese Yen The Biggest One-Way Bet of All Time / Currencies / Japanese Yen
By: Money_and_Markets
Jack Crooks writes: Since Mike Larson is off today, he's asked me to fill in for him. And his request couldn't have come at a better time: My specialty is foreign currencies. Foreign currencies have been surging against the dollar. And we're on the verge of a very specific currency explosion that could generate one of the greatest profit opportunities in a quarter century.
Here's the scoop:
The world's largest hedge funds and the world's richest institutions have been borrowing massive amounts of cheap Japanese money to fund some of the riskiest bets of all time. And now, that whole mountain of debt and risk is starting to crumble.
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Thursday, August 02, 2007
US Dollar to Fall to 115.60 Japanese Yen by the End of August / Currencies / Japanese Yen
By: Ashraf_Laidi
The 48K seen in the ADP National Employment report on private payrolls for July, was well below expectations of 100K following 150K in June and 98 in May. Considering the ADP's 66% track in predicting the direction of (up or down) in private payrolls reported by the US Department of Labor, today's disappointing figure causes us to downgrade our forecast for non farm payrolls to 80K from June's 132K. Consensus of forecasts currently stands at 124K.
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Monday, July 09, 2007
Will Japan Destroy the yen to save the US Dollar? / Currencies / Japanese Yen
By: Peter_Schiff
As the Japanese government continues holding short-term interest rates near zero while printing yen like it is going out of style, getting out of the yen has now replaced pachinko as the national pastime for rank and file Japanese. With housewives and cab drivers debating the best techniques to exchange their yen savings for higher yielding non-yen assets, the Japanese monetary authorities are facing the prospect of the complete destruction of their own currency, subjecting their citizens to the horrors of hyperinflation.Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, March 11, 2007
Japanese Yen Forecast - The Yen Carry Trade: Global Removal of Liquidity and Deflation / Currencies / Japanese Yen
By: Francois_Soto
How does the carry trade work?It's actually very simple. Here is a fictive example from Wikipedia depicting the process:
Bank ABC is borrowing X billions of Yen at 0.0% interest rate in Japan.
Bank ABC is converting X billions of Yen in $USD.
Bank ABC is investing the amount of $USD at 4.5% interest rate in USA with 10x leverage.
Bank ABC profit is (4.5%-0.0%) * 10 = 45.0%
Seems too good to be true! What is the catch?
If the Yen appreciates in value vs. the $USD, Bank ABC may lose a significant amount of money.
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