Friday, January 11, 2019
Two Must Know Stock Index Trading Setups That Happen Every Week / InvestorEducation / Stock Index Trading
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Our ideal morning market swing as I mentioned in today’s members-only video has played out. A price drop to reach spike targets, then a reversal rally to gap fill. This is the third straight day the market had done this for us, it’s not always this good or frequent. 6 winning trades in 3 days is tough to beat and one day pays for years worth of access to our Wealth Building Newsletter Service.
If you don’t know about our two best short term trade setups which are the “Gap Window” and “Price Spike” then you’ll want to learn more and we will be adding a detailed trading guide on exactly how to trade these for our subscribers.
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Friday, January 11, 2019
Yield curve suggests that US Recession is near: Trading Setups / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019
By: FXCOT
Investors think recession risk is quite high. This, though, raises another question: Since investors have access to the same news and data as the Fed, how can they know the economy better than the Fed? Economist Jesse Edgerton of J.P. Morgan has found that economic data has a better record of predicting recession than the yield curve and right now, the data sees lower odds than the yield curve. Short-term interest rates are set by the Federal Reserve, and long-term rates by bond market investors. The curve has been flattening for the past two years as the Fed has slowly raised short-term rates in hopes of a “soft landing,” a slowing in growth that keeps both unemployment and inflation low and stable. But in recent months the flattening has been driven by falling bond yields. The usual interpretation: Investors in their collective wisdom think the Fed is overdoing it with rate increases and could shove the economy into recession, in which case short-term rates will be lower in a few years than they are now.
Friday, January 11, 2019
Jaguar Land Rover Exporting 3000 British Jobs to Slovakia / Politics / Auto Sector
By: N_Walayat
Thursday, Jaguar Land Rover announced 4,500 job losses most of which will take place in the UK that comes on the back of last years announcement to cut 1500 jobs with the car manufacturer putting the blame on a slowdown in China, a slump in demand for diesel vehicles as the trend towards electric cars gathers pace and of course BrExit uncertainty.
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Thursday, January 10, 2019
How Unrealistic Return Assumptions Are Ruining Your Stocks Portfolio / InvestorEducation / Learning to Invest
By: Jared_Dillian
There is no shortage of stupid things in the financial market. But probably the worst thing people can do is to have unrealistic return assumptions.Question to you: On a long-term basis, what annual returns do you expect in a broad-based stock market index?
- 6%
- 8%
- 10%
- 12%
Thursday, January 10, 2019
What’s Next for the US Dollar, Gold, Stocks & Bonds? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019
By: Axel_Merk
The quip, “if you aren’t confused, you aren’t paying attention” needs to be replaced: “with the Fed confused, you better pay attention.” You may want to buckle up. Let me explain.
It all starts with the Fed... In assessing our crystal ball for 2019, the starting point is the Federal Reserve (Fed) because they provide an anchor for the price of risk-free assets (Treasuries) around which risk assets are priced.1 When rates were near zero and the Fed purchased Treasuries, it wasn’t only Treasury yields that were depressed, but the Fed pulled down yields of risk assets as well. Differently said, the Fed made it appear as if risky assets were less risky; this didn’t only affect bonds, but also equities that enjoyed years of rising prices on the backdrop of low volatility. This was the era of compressed risk premia.
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Thursday, January 10, 2019
Jaguar Land Rover Car Crash 6000 Jobs Cut! / Companies / Auto Sector
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Today Jaguar Land Rover announced 4,500 job losses most of which will take place in the UK that comes on the back of last years announcement to cut 1500 jobs as the car manufacturer puts the blame on a China slowdown, a slump in demand for diesel vehicles as the trend towards electric cars gathers pace and of course BrExit uncertainty.
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Thursday, January 10, 2019
America's New Africa Strategy / Politics / GeoPolitics
By: Dan_Steinbock
Recently, the White House released its new U.S. Africa strategy, which seeks militarization and portrays China as a threat. Both are misguided. Africa can greatly benefit from Chinese and U.S. economic development.
On December 13, 2018, U.S. National Security Adviser John Bolton gave a speech in the conservative Heritage Foundation about the Trump administration’s new “Africa strategy,” based on Trump’s ‘America First’ foreign policy doctrine.
In the United States, the media focus was on Bolton’s attack against U.S. adversaries and American aid. Specifically, Boston accused Russia and China of “predatory practices” in Africa.
Thursday, January 10, 2019
Will Powell’s Put Support Gold? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Fed signals more patience with its monetary tightening, despite strong economy. Why? And what does it mean for the gold market?
Minutes from December FOMC Meeting and Gold
As everybody knows, in December the FOMC voted unanimously to raise interest rates for the fourth time in 2018. We have analyzed the implications of that hike for gold in two editions of the Gold News Monitor (here and here).
However, yesterday, the Fed published the minutes of its latest monetary policy meeting. The document shows that despite the apparent unanimity, the tensions were growing, as a “few” officials were actually arguing for the central bank to pause:
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Thursday, January 10, 2019
Stock Market Simple Day Trades – Gap Windows and Price Spikes / InvestorEducation / Stock Index Trading
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Every short-term trader wishes they had a strategy they could rely on for 1-5 trades a week. Well, two of my favorite intraday trade setups I discovered during my 23 years of trading everything from stocks, ETF’s, options, currencies, and futures 24 hours a day I am going to be sharing to subscribers of the Wealth Building Newsletter where these strategies and charts update live throughout the trading day for them to follow and trade the signals that are generated.
Thursday, January 10, 2019
Gold Mine Production by Country / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Michael_J_Kosares
Gold mine production by country Divergent paths among the major global producers tell an important tale
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Sources: MetalsFocus and the World Gold Council with permission.
Thursday, January 10, 2019
Gold, Stocks and the Flattening Yield Curve / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019
By: Gary_Tanashian
The 3 Amigos were a blogger’s way of not boring himself to death while fleshing out important macro indicators month after month.
Amigo #1 (SPX/Gold ratio) got home and dropped from target. What’s more, it has taken back the ratio’s equivalent of the entire Trump rally and that is an eventuality we are very open to on nominal SPX as well.
The gaps are interesting and among several possibilities for 2019 we could see fear, loathing and a fill of the lower gap (a greed gap of sorts) prior to a filling of the upper gap, which could blow out the stock bull in manic fashion one day. Relax, it’s just one of several possible road maps. For now, we simply state that SPX/Gold reached a very viable target and dutifully dropped with the market stress.
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Thursday, January 10, 2019
Silver Price Trend Forecast Target for 2019 / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Nadeem_Walayat
My long standing approach to Silver is one of buying when cheap to invest and forget, for it only tends to come alive towards the end of precious metals bull runs as illustrated the last time I took a look at Silver on the 8th of May 2018 -
Silver Forecast 2018 and Beyond, Investing for the $35+ Price Spike!
In terms of a Silver market position then as is currently the case the silver market can usually be expected to be a dead market with the tendency to flat line not just for many months but even years as it tends to play second fiddle to Gold in terms of tradable swings, usually only really coming alive towards the latter stages of precious metal bull markets.
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Wednesday, January 09, 2019
Warning: This Stock Market Rig is Going to End Terribly / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Graham_Summers
This is getting old.
The PPT is now juicing Oil higher, because doing so relieves stress in the junk bond market (a large percentage of junk bond issuers are shale companies that require higher Oil prices to be profitable).
This, in turn, is sending a “all clear” signal to stocks, inducing algos to buy indiscriminately.
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Wednesday, January 09, 2019
How Waymo Will Destroy Uber / Companies / Self Driving Cars
By: Stephen_McBride
Google’s Waymo has officially launched the world’s first self-driving, ride-sharing service! Residents in four Phoenix suburbs can now ride around in its robo-taxis for a small fee.It’s one of the biggest disruptive forces in America.
In RiskHedge, I recently explained why self-driving cars are going to gut the auto industry like a fish. And Phoenix is only the first step in Waymo’s domination of American roads.
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Wednesday, January 09, 2019
Are Changing Prices to San Francisco Starter Homes Enough? / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Harry_Dent
Bubbles ultimately die of their own extremes, although it always helps to have a trigger like the subprime crisis in 2006.But the San Francisco area takes the cake when it come to the U.S. real-estate bubbles! (That Canadian honor goes to Vancouver and in Australia it’s Sydney and Melbourne.)
And prices have started to fall, albeit slowly, despite no slowdown in the economy and only modestly rising interest rates thus far.
Why?
Because of the insanity of home prices there! They’re massively overpriced, especially in the large and critical starter-home market.
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Wednesday, January 09, 2019
Silver Price Trend Forecast 2019 / Commodities / Global Debt Crisis 2019
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This is the 4th and final article in this series that concludes in a trend forecast for the Silver price 2019.
- Silver Price Trend Forecast 2018 Review
- Gold - Silver Ratio
- Silver Price Trend Analysis 2019
- Silver Price Trend Forecast Conclusion for 2019
The whole of this analysis has first been made available to Patrons who support my work.
So for immediate First Access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $3 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.
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Wednesday, January 09, 2019
Good News for Land Rover as US Sales Soar to New Record, But Facing China Headwinds 2019 / Companies / Auto Sector
By: N_Walayat
Finally some good news for Jaguar Land Rover as it's US sales soared by 24% during December 2018 to a total of 14,080 cars, ending a great year for JLR in the US seeing sales surge to nearly 123,000, up from the 114,300 for 2017, with the US now accounting for approximately 28% of total sales.
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Wednesday, January 09, 2019
There Goes Tesla’s Tax Break / Companies / US Auto's
By: Rodney_Johnson
As I’ve written before, Tesla (Nasdaq: TSLA) has many problems, including quality control (it now ranks 27th out of 29 vehicle makes, according to Consumer Reports) and a quick burn rate.But one issue hit harder on New Year’s Day than all the others.
Because the car company reached the milestone of selling 200,000 electric vehicles in the second quarter of 2018, the tax credit associated with buying a Tesla was cut in half on January 1, from $7,500 to $3,750, and will decline again before disappearing completely in early 2020.
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Tuesday, January 08, 2019
An Investment Lesson from Puerto Rico / Stock-Markets / Investing 2019
By: Rodney_Johnson
It takes two and a half hours to fly from Miami to San Juan, Puerto Rico, but the island might as well be on the other side of the planet.Even though it’s a U.S. territory and it’s a shorter flight from Miami to San Juan than to L.A. or even Washington, the place is the epitome of out-of-sight, out-of-mind.
When’s the last time you considered the tough conditions on the island?
Hurricane Maria flattened the place more than a year ago, and quickened the pace of migration from the island to Florida, leaving behind the vulnerable population.
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Tuesday, January 08, 2019
Wall Street Drools over Fishy Jobs Report / Stock-Markets / Economic Statistics
By: MoneyMetals
The Bureau of Labor Statistics delivered a blowout jobs report on Friday. Headline chasing algorithms and investors responded by snapping up stocks. They also sold some gold and silver futures, driving prices lower on the day.
To Wall Street cheerleaders, it looked like the stock market correction might be over and precious metals would be headed out of fashion, once again.
It looked like something else to anyone who read past the headlines. What a Potemkin Village the markets have become!