Monday, April 13, 2020
Are Coronavirus Death Statistics Exaggerated? Worse than Seasonal Flu or Not? / Politics / Pandemic
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This is part 1 of 2 that updates the current trend trajectories for the coronavirus mega-trend, where whilst the pandemic itself may not last more than a year nevertheless the magnitude of which is likely to impact many aspects of our lives for decades to come. Where the purpose of this analysis is to ensure that we are not all getting carried away by media headlines that could be over exaggerating covid-19 that has resulted in unprecedented government measures. Especially as a significant percentage of people, usually those yet to experience the first hand consequences of the Coronavirus, see it largely in terms of being a corona hoax, fake news, a grab for power, a plandemic, the elites once more playing their power games to enrich themselves just as they did during the financial crisis.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, April 13, 2020
The Society will Strike Back, or are the Swedish too Dumb? / Politics / Social Issues
By: Submissions
I first wrote about a contact tracing surveillance app on mobile phones on 6th April 2020. Six days later, on the 12th April Apple and Google announce their cooperation to develop such app. Apart from the fact the authorities will never let a tech company to store such sensitive information the fundamental problem with Google and Apple plan is the fact that a government will not accept a disease carrier individual to freely and anonymously pass a disease to others in society. It is against the fundamental responsibility of each sovereign state to keep health and well being of society. It is highly naive if Apple or Google thinks that the state will not get involved and will have a closed eye on the control of such sensitive information. As I stated before we will move eventually more to a full implementation of a state contact tracing (surveillance) plan.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, April 13, 2020
Global Trade: The War of the Throne / Economics / Global Economy
By: Stephen_Merrill
Now scribers, hear the tale of the mightiest battle of humankind. It is the war over the throne of global trade. The ongoing duel between the Rightful King and the Irresistible Force.With the Joker in the mix now, too.
Five Millenia of Global Trade
What tamed the tribalistic human into a more civilized state long ago was the logic and obvious benefits of trade and travel. From its very beginning, the global means-of -exchange facilitating trade was ultimately gold and its monetary stepchild silver. Even when Western Europeans traded with China, India and many others, the primacy of gold and silver was easily adopted by both sides based on their separate tradition.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, April 13, 2020
AI Fibonacci Trading System Predicts Next Stock Market Move / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Now that you’ve learned about Fibonacci Price Theory Part I and how major and minor Fibonacci Price Pivots help to map out true price structure Part II, we’ll continue our research article illustrating why we believe a deeper price low should take place before a true bottoms sets up in the US and global markets.
Our researchers use a host of available tools and proprietary price modeling systems in an attempt to identify the most likely outcome of future price activity. Within this article, we’re focusing on the Fibonacci Price Theory and our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system. We just taught you about Fibonacci Price Pivots and how to use them. Now, we are going to go into a detailed analysis of deeper Fibonacci price theory with the NQ (NASDAQ)
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, April 13, 2020
Covid-19: Who, what, when, where and Why? / Politics / Pandemic
By: Richard_Mills
If there is one thing we know about the coronavirus, it’s that getting a jump on it helps to limit the number of infections. Clearly the best time to stop this, and all outbreaks, is in its early stages.
Both China and the United States have been accused of suppressing information and delaying acting on knowledge that could have significantly limited the spread of covid-19.
Some may argue this is no time for armchair quarterbacking, as the virus continues to ravage the United States, Canada and several nations in Western Europe including the UK, France, Germany, Italy and Spain.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, April 13, 2020
Coronavirus Socialism / Politics / Coronavirus Depression
By: Patrick_Watson
When (hopefully soon) we all get out of coronavirus lockdown and try to resume normal life, we will probably find a different “normal.”
The best-case outcome: scientists discover a “magic bullet” treatment that quickly restores the most serious cases to health. We could then ease restrictions and get on with business.
But more likely, any such treatment is months away and a vaccine probably a year away, so many precautions will have to stay in place. We won’t see large gatherings and crowded restaurants anytime soon.
But we’ll see something else: a radically different economic structure.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, April 12, 2020
UK Coronavirus Trend Trajectory Current State - Video / Politics / Pandemic
By: Nadeem_Walayat
At times it can be difficult not to be swept along with the NHS wave that has gripped Britain, the clapping and cheering, and stories of Nightingale hospitals coming on stream with thousands of beds. But the same dynamics are at work here, i.e. a high percentage of people on ventilators eventually dying and a surge in the number of patients, so one should take media stories focused on the 15,000 or so of extra beds across Britain's Nightingale hospitals with a pinch of salt, as likely they will not turn out to be anywhere near as effective as people believe them to be should they end up in a Nightingale hospital. So more a publicity stunt than building effective extra capacity.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, April 12, 2020
Bitcoin Has Just Passed 50% Fibonacci Level And Is On Its Way To $7700 / Currencies / Bitcoin
By: Submissions
The recently rising price of Bitcoin against the US dollar is slowing progressing towards the next resistance level of $7700. Currently, we are seeing some pin bars forming near $7200 with the resurgence of some selling pressure.
As seen in the BTCUSD Daily chart below, the Bitcoin price has been rising gradually since its lowest levels this year, when the price briefly dropped on the 12th of March to $3600.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, April 12, 2020
Can the S&P 500 Bulls Sound the All Clear Now? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: P_Radomski_CFA
The buyers repelled the opening selling pressure, and gradually made their way higher. While it wasn’t smooth sailing throughout the whole session, they overcame every attempt of the sellers. Closing near the daily highs, and with futures little changed during the premarket session, can the buyers repeat their performance later today as well?
In the search for answers, let’s check the daily chart (charts courtesy of http://stockcharts.com).
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, April 12, 2020
Kids Easter Bunny and Chicken's Hunt in Lockdown Britain, Ecclesall Woods, Sheffield / Local / Sheffield
By: N_Walayat
It's Easter in lockdown Britain, so here's a quick trip to the woods near where we live, time for Eliza's Easter bunny and chickens hunt. Hopefully better times are just around the corner (Ecclesall Woods, Sheffield).
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, April 12, 2020
Will Fed and Trump Save the US Economy And Sink Gold? / Economics / Coronavirus Depression
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
The Trump administration will seek an additional $250 billion to support small businesses hurt by the widespread economic shutdown and slowdown. Will the government and the Fed save the US economy? What would be the consequences for the gold market?US Epidemiological Update
As of April 7, more than 360,000 people were confirmed to be infected by the coronavirus in the US, and more than 10,000 out of them died because of the COVID-19, as the chart below shows. Actually, the US is entering the worst period of the epidemic, as hospitals are struggling to maintain and expand capacity to care for infected patients.
Saturday, April 11, 2020
Federal Reserve Notes Are Now “Backed” by Junk Bonds / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: MoneyMetals
Wild price action and unprecedented interventions once again characterized this holiday-shortened trading week.
Oil prices whipsawed lower Thursday on concerns about expected oil production cuts from Russia and Saudi Arabia. But the general trend for most other assets, including metals and equities, was up – way up.
Stocks finished out the week with the major averages posting their biggest weekly gains in decades in the space of just four trading days. Investors went on a buying spree based on hopes that we will soon see a definitive peak in coronavirus cases and begin the process of restarting the economy.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, April 11, 2020
The Invisible Hand of Capitalism / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Jared_Dillian
The Fed is more or less doing modern monentary theory (MMT) as we speak.
But rather than giving printed dollars to the Treasury, it’s using the bond market as a conduit. Trillions in bond issuance, financed by trillions of dollars of printed money.
Don’t get me started on the pathetic levels of assistance we are offering American citizens in favor of financially irresponsible corporations.
What we are practicing here is not capitalism. In order for capitalism to work, we must allow corporations to fail. The bankruptcy process works just fine. Sure, shareholders and creditors would experience losses, and this would teach them to be more careful next time.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, April 11, 2020
Global Shutdown and Gold / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Have you read Ayn Rand’s novel Atlas Shrugged? The main theme of the book is that – overwhelmed by growing statism – entrepreneurs at one point say finally “basta!” and announce a strike. The symbolic Atlas who carries the world, shrugs. As a result, the economy collapses, plunging the world into chaos. This what we are observing right now – the only difference is that Atlas has not shrugged but got infected. But the result is the same. The economy freezes. We invite you thus to read our today’s article and find out what does the global shutdown implies for the global economy and the gold market!
Have you read Ayn Rand’s novel Atlas Shrugged? The main theme of the book is that – overwhelmed by growing statism – entrepreneurs at one point say finally “basta!” and announce a strike. They disappear, leaving their businesses to their fate. The symbolic Atlas who carries the world, shrugs. As a result, the economy collapses, plunging the world into chaos.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, April 11, 2020
A ‘Good’ Thursday as Gold Stocks Show the Way / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2020
By: Gary_Tanashian
[edit] It goes without saying that gold miners and the royalty companies that live off them will be shown to have been impaired like many other companies by the coming Q2 numbers due to shutdowns. An emailer questioned my view on this and it has been one of my personal caution points. Markets should be looking ahead, but during this euphoric sentiment release across broad markets maybe they’re overlooking some things. The other caution point is that a big bullish expression on the heels of the Fed announcement is also a setup for short-term disappointment. So with respect to the daily chart below, maybe Friday’s gap will fill after all. But as noted in the article below “the gold stocks lead and their fundamentals and value proposition will have improved by leaps and bounds as we exit the COVID-19 global lock down”.
It’s a good Friday because I get to start my weekend work earlier. Many people temporarily have no weekends because they are huddled at home as one day bleeds into the next amid the global pandemic. Monday is Thursday is Saturday. Good Friday is Halloween is Festivus.
But when times are normal I have no weekends, working 7 days and most intensely on the weekends (with more freedom than the average worker on weekdays). When times are abnormal like now, I work hard on weekends but the more intense days are during the week. As one subscriber put it:
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, April 11, 2020
Our Fib Trading System is Telling Us Where The Stock Market Is Headed Next / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Chris_Vermeulen
In this section of our multi-part research post centered around our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system’s expectations, we are focusing on the NQ (NASDAQ futures) and the future expected price rotations. As we discussed earlier, in Part I, Fibonacci price theory teaches us that price must always attempt to establish new price highs or new price lows within a trend. Reversals happen when price fails to continue establishing new price highs or new price lows and breaks above or below a recent critical price level.
First, we’ll focus on the major Fibonacci Price Pivots and how to identify and use them with the Fibonacci Price Theory. Major Price Pivots are points in time where a major new High or Low price is established that becomes a critical price top or bottom. Often, within extended trending, a minor price pivot will become a major price pivot simply because the price trend has extended for many weeks or months without establishing any type of moderate price rotation. The reason we could consider a minor price pivot as a major price pivot is that, within the extended trend, we attempt to identify where price setup a “unique low” or “unique high” as a point of support or resistance within the trend.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, April 11, 2020
US Coronavirus Trend Trajectory Forecast Update - Video / Politics / Pandemic
By: Nadeem_Walayat
My forecast as of 22nd of March is for the US to trend towards 531,000 tested as infected by the end of April coupled with 26,550 deaths, for a Case Fatality Rate (CFR) of 5%, as it was hoped that valuable time would not be squandered on political bickering during this escalating national emergency, where every day counts.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, April 10, 2020
Gold and Understanding the Current Investment Reality / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Nick_Barisheff
Gold has been misunderstood and ignored by retail investors, financial advisors and pension managers as a critical portfolio asset during normal market conditions. However, during periods of market stress, such as we are experiencing now, gold becomes a safe haven asset that will mitigate losses in the portfolio. For a number of years, many experts have been warning about overinflated markets that were just waiting for a spark to ignite the entire system.
I warned investors that we were in a triple bubble in stocks, bonds and real estate that was created by central bank policies. Although I concluded that a market crash was inevitable, I didn’t foresee that the spark to ignite all three bubbles would be the Coronavirus. While the virus itself is life threatening and will result in large demographic changes across the globe, the economic implications may be worse than the disease. Major economies in Europe, Canada and the United States have been shut down. Every industry—airlines, hotels, manufacturing, entertainment, sports, schools and retail—is in lockdown. Most of the western world is ravaged by fear, isolation, loss of employment, loss of income and the psychological effect of this massive lockdown situation. Employees have either been terminated or laid off indefinitely. The scale of this unemployment crunch and financial crisis is beyond the reach of governments’ assistance. Many businesses will not be able to reopen once the health issues have been controlled.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, April 10, 2020
See a Stock Price Gap? Learn to Capitalize on Them / InvestorEducation / Learn to Trade
By: EWI
Hi,
In volatile markets especially, you often see price gaps -- those blank spaces on a chart where the prices jumped so fast, they left a gap behind.
Did you know there are 4 types of price gaps -- and you can use each type to your advantage?
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, April 10, 2020
A Rare Bottoming Pattern on the HUI Gold Stocks? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Rambus_Chartology
Back at the 2008 crash low in the HUI there was a reversal pattern, that is pretty rare, which helped confirm that very important low. If you ever wondered what the 2007 – 2008 top looked like and the decline that followed to the 2008 crash low this daily chart for the HUI paints the Chartology I posted at the tent, in real time, as the impulse move to the downside took place.
The 2007 – 2008 H&S top was actually a double H&S top which ended the first 8 years of the bull market that began in 2000. Even though that is a beautiful H&S top no one wanted to believe it could be possible when I first began to post the possibility of what the implications were. At the time I viewed the H&S top as a normal H&S reversal pattern but I had no idea it would lead to the crash it did. Even during the crash of that magnitude the Chartology was about as good as it can get.
Read full article... Read full article...