Thursday, May 07, 2020

Quantitative INFLATION - Fed QE4EVER / Stock-Markets / Quantitative Easing

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Once money printing starts it never ends! Instead what happens is any unwinding of central bank balance sheets tends to be temporary in advance of the next crisis which tends to send balance sheets through the roof. This has been my consistent message for the past 10 years since Quantitative INFLATION began in 2008! And so the corona crisis has seen the Fed once more flood the markets with liquidity buying up all sorts of assess left right and centre from junk bonds, to stocks of bankrupt corporations to of course government bonds, and when the buying is done the Fed will likely have DOUBLED it's balance sheet from $4.2 trillion a couple of months ago to approaching $9 trillion!

Thursday, May 07, 2020

Bitcoin Price Trades Like the S&P 500, and is Testing Resistance / Currencies / Bitcoin

By: Chris_Vermeulen

If you pay attention to the trends taking place on the Weekly Bitcoin chart, you’ll notice that it has reacted to the global market Covid-19 trends almost exclusively since the beginning of 2020.  After the end of 2019, the US stock market rallied on Q4: 2019 data and so did Bitcoin.  The US Stock market peaked near February 20 and began a deeper selloff on February 25 – Bitcoin followed this pattern as well.  When the US Fed initiated the stimulus on March 23, Bitcoin prices had already started to bottom in anticipation of the Fed stimulus and really began to rally after the Fed began intervening.

Before you continue, be sure to opt-in to our free market trend signals before closing this page, so you don’t miss our next special report!

Thursday, May 07, 2020

Money Printing is the New Mother's Milk of Stocks / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: Michael_Pento

My friend Larry Kudlow always says that Profits are the mother's milk of stocks. That used to be true when we had a real economy. But sadly, that is no longer factual because we now have a global equity market that is totally controlled by central banks.  To prove this point, let's look at the last few years of earnings. During the year 2018, the EPS growth for the S&P 500 was 20%; yet the S&P 500 Index was down 7% over that same time-frame.

Conversely, during 2019, the S&P 500 EPS growth was a dismal 1%; yet the Index surged by nearly 30%. What could possibly account for such a huge divergence between EPS growth and market performance? We need only to view Fed actions for the simple answer: it was the degree to which our central bank was willing to falsify asset prices.

Thursday, May 07, 2020

Another Stock Market Selloff Could Drive More Bullion Buying / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: Avi_Gilburt

Investors got a look at first quarter GDP, and it wasn’t pretty. The U.S. economy contracted by 4.8%, even worse than the 3.3% decline anticipated by economists.

In addition to that bad news, 4 million more Americans filed for unemployment last week. More than 30 million people have lost jobs over the past 6 weeks, and the situation is only getting worse.

The S&P 500 lost 2.8% on Friday.

Perhaps equity investors are beginning to wonder if share prices, which have moved relentlessly higher in recent weeks, accurately reflect the dismal economic data.

Thursday, May 07, 2020

This Stock Market Makes No Sense / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: Avi_Gilburt

The title to this update is likely the most repeated phrase you have heard over the last month from market participants and analysts alike. As more and more bad economic news is presented through the media, somehow, the market just keeps grinding higher.

I think this picture taken from one of Jim Cramer’s shows expresses the disconnect best:

Doesn’t the market understand what everyone else clearly “knows:” we are heading into the next Great Depression?

As I have always tried to make people understand, the stock market and the economy are not one and the same. Rather, there is a reason that the stock market is considered the best “leading indicator” for the economy. And, it is purely because market sentiment (the true underlying driver of the stock market) is seen in action much quicker within the stock market as relative to the fundamentals within the economy, which take time to catch up to the market action.

Thursday, May 07, 2020

Covid-19: Major Risks as US Eyes Re-Open / Economics / Coronavirus Depression

By: Dr_David_J_Harris

SUMMARY

This article provides a quick review of the current state of the US lock-down in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Major risks lie ahead in terms of re-starting the US economy without re-igniting the spread of the COVID-19 coronavirus.

• Current number of active cases is 50x the number when US lock-down started
• Peak number of US active cases still not yet reached, and likely weeks away
• Peak number of deaths for US in a day, observed relatively recently
• Model projections are predicting at least 100,000 US deaths by May 31
• Contact tracing in today’s complex society is a major problem to overcome
• The US is now in a recession that could last at least 12 to 18 months

Wednesday, May 06, 2020

Economic Collaspe Gold Price $6,600 or $22,000 / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: The_Gold_Report

Bob Moriarty of 321gold discusses economic collapse and gold.

I like to read. I read fast and that helps.

I can't quite come to grips with all these guys now coming out with 25-minute videos they insist we watch instead of reading. Do they really believe that everyone has so much free time that they can pay attention to someone chattering away for 25 minutes?

Most of what you read or watch will be noise, meaningless stuff put out by guys who always have an agenda and certainly a bias. The majority has never had an original thought in their lives; all they do is parrot what some other fool has to say. When they want your money and that is pretty often, they figure out what you want to hear. That's what they tell you, just like TV preachers and politicians.

Wednesday, May 06, 2020

Crushing the States, Saving the Banks: The Fed’s Generous New Rules / Politics / Coronavirus Depression

By: Ellen_Brown

The new terms could be harnessed for local governments to own and operate their own banks.

Congress seems to be at war with the states. Only $150 billion of its nearly $3 trillion coronavirus relief package – a mere 5% – has been allocated to the 50 states; and they are not allowed to use it where they need it most, to plug the holes in their budgets caused by the mandatory shutdown. On April 22, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell said he was opposed to additional federal aid to the states, and that his preference was to allow states to go bankrupt. 

Wednesday, May 06, 2020

A Tale of Two Economic Depressions / Economics / Coronavirus Depression

By: Richard_Mills

As the coronavirus continues to hammer state and provincial economies, politicians are being forced to consider whether lockdown “cures” are worse than the disease. Pressured by the Trump administration, and in some cases the public, several US states are planning a re-opening, or partial re-opening of their economies, sometime in May. 

About half of Canadian provinces and territories are also in the midst of a re-start of some description; among those still locked down are British Columbia, Alberta, Nova Scotia, and Newfoundland/ Labrador. 

The question weighing on the minds of both health officials and economists, is whether letting up on social distancing restrictions will cause the number of covid-19 cases to spike, thereby setting back virus containment efforts and the timeline of economic recovery. Yet regardless of what comes next, it doesn’t take a lot of analysis to see we are already in a heap of trouble. 

Wednesday, May 06, 2020

Why Americans Don't Have Any Savings / Economics / US Economy

By: Frank_Hollenbeck

In response to a likely worldwide recession, governments have turned on full blast the fiscal and monetary spigots. A $2 trillion spending plan has just been approved in the USA, central banks are on a buying spree, and the $1200 stimulus payment is just helicopter money. Since the government does not have a magical tree of plenty and can only redistribute from the left pocket to the right by taxing, borrowing, or printing money, how does this make any economic sense or make any country better off? Government and Keynesian economists will tell you it’s to protect us from the coming dangers of hoarding; specifically, that banks will stop lending and just let funds sit. Keynes brought hoarding to the forefront of economics in his The General Theory of Employment, Interest, and Money; a concept that the classical economist considered to be irrelevant.

Wednesday, May 06, 2020

To Avoid a Collapse of the Eurozone, Europe Moves Closer to a European Megastate / Politics / European Union

By: Frank_Hollenbeck

The French president Macron recently fired a warning shot across the bow of the European ship of state. He said that without making all EU countries mutually responsible for the debts of individual countries the EU could collapse. In March, Christine Lagarde asked eurozone finance ministers to consider a one-off joint debt issuance of “corona bonds” to assist with the coronavirus pandemic. But this has been met with opposition by Germany and other northern European countries, since they do not want to be responsible for the debts of the more spendthrift nations of the EU.

Wednesday, May 06, 2020

SP500 Kitchin Cycle Review / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: readtheticker

Early 2020 the fear was the human race 'David' may suffer terribly under a frightening new flu (COVID 19) 'Goliath', well after few short months it is now clear the human race will win this trial by combat.

Previous Post: SP500 Kitchin Cycle Review

In the previous post the blog said (part 1)

.."We must conclude the major 900 period low is now in, and we are now in a up swing, which may top out ate 2020 or late 2021. Any future top out may only generate a 10% to 20% correction, of course this can be deemed very mild. This is expected, but the expected does not always play out."...

Wednesday, May 06, 2020

How to Find Trustworthy Will Writers in Birmingham / Personal_Finance / Pensions & Retirement

By: Submissions

It is not something that everyone would want to think about, but having a Will written can make life so much easier for your loved ones should anything happen to you. Young or old, it doesn’t matter, a Will is something that everyone should have. As we go through life, we gather assets, whether they be possessions, a car, a house or money, everyone will have something. By creating a Will, you are leaving clear instructions as to how your assets should be shared in the event of your death. Without a Will, it is left for your loved ones to decide upon the distribution of your assets and not only may they be distributed in a way that you would rather not have but it can cause endless arguments between family members when decisions have to be made and sometimes it can cause a permanent rift. With a Will, you can also appoint an Executor, a person that you would trust, to have the responsibility to share your assets according to your wishes. You can find out more about will writers Birmingham through the provided site.

Tuesday, May 05, 2020

Fed Cuts Equities Stimulus 86% This Week and Stocks Are Falling / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: Chris_Vermeulen

What happens to the global markets when the US Fed begins to weaken stimulus activity and when the global markets must begin to function on their own?  Are the global markets capable of sustaining current price levels without the Fed supporting them?

A recent news article suggests the US Fed has drastically slashed stimulus activity over the past 5+ days.  From a peak level of nearly $600 Billion a week to current levels near $83 Billion per week – a -86% decrease.  How will this reflect in the market’s ability to sustain current price levels in the face of disastrous Q2 expectations? Yup, markets are falling fast and hard going into the weekend as expected!

Tuesday, May 05, 2020

Gold and Silver: Pay Attention to This Noteworthy Record High / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: EWI

Here's what usually occurs in related financial markets when "big changes in social mood are afoot"

Related financial markets tend to move together. For example, gold and silver.

Or, consider stocks. When the Dow Industrials are up on a given trading day, the NASDAQ is usually in the green too. The same applies when the Dow is down. Other major stock indexes tend to close in negative territory as well.

However, when a trend is near exhaustion -- whether bullish or bearish -- "non-confirmations" often happen. A non-confirmation occurs when one market makes a new high (or low), but a related market does not.

Tuesday, May 05, 2020

Americans Just Can’t Get Enough Gold & Silver / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: MoneyMetals

Precious metals markets enter the month of May with some mixed signals near term.  But the long-term picture continues to look constructive.  All the metals appear to have put in major bottoms during the panic selling of mid to late March.

Barring another wave of virus outbreaks and economic lockdowns, the gradual reopening of state, local, and national economies should start to unleash more industrial and jewelry demand in the not too distant future. 

And the extraordinary fiscal and monetary stimulus being pumped into the financial system will, if nothing else, work toward the debasement of the U.S. dollar. 

Tuesday, May 05, 2020

Silver’s Epic Mean Reversion / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Zeal_LLC

Silver is powering higher in a new bull market after getting clobbered in March’s stock panic.  Investors have been flocking back to silver in the aftermath of that ultra-rare extreme-fear event.  That brutal selloff also utterly wiped out speculators’ upside bets in silver futures, giving them massive room to buy back in.  After being pummeled to record-low levels relative to gold, an epic silver mean reversion higher is underway.

A couple weeks ago, I wrote a popular essay “Big Silver Bull Running!”.  It explained what happened to silver in this recent COVID-19 stock panic, and why silver soared in its wake.  Sucked into that blinding fear maelstrom, silver was thrashed to a miserable 10.9-year low.  This metal plummeted in a near-crash, fueled by speculators’ fastest long purge ever witnessed!  That exhausted their selling, totally resetting longs.

That meant these super-leveraged traders’ capital firepower was fully available to buy back into silver.  And much more bullish than that, strong and relentless silver investment demand emerged since that mid-March collapse.  That’s evident in the soaring silver-bullion holdings of silver’s leading exchange-traded fund, the SLV iShares Silver Trust!  This dominant silver ETF is the best daily proxy for global investment demand.

Tuesday, May 05, 2020

Do I Need Business Van Insurance? / Companies / Insurance

By: Submissions

A commercial van is the beating heart of many small businesses. In some cases, losing access to a van could mean that operations would be interrupted, if not halted entirely. Picture a custom carpentry business that is left without a cargo van. It couldn’t reasonably ask customers to pick up their furniture and third-party transport would put a huge dent on profits.

Insuring your van is required, as it’s a registered vehicle the same as any other. However, that doesn’t mean that standard coverage is adequate for a commercial van. Instead, you’re going to need business van insurance.

Tuesday, May 05, 2020

United States Coronavirus Trend Trajectory Update / Politics / Pandemic

By: Nadeem_Walayat

A quick update for the US Corona catastrophe trend trajectory. Over 1 million testing positive and 61,656 reported deaths resolves to a case fatality rate of 5.8% up from 2.1% at the start of April. Which just reiterates how badly wrong ALL those who were touting that the CFR would fall when the US starts to test many more people, we'll just as I warned at the time that is NOT what's going to happen and HAS not happened!

Regardless of what President Trump and the mad scientists state about flattening the curve , in reality there is little sign of the curve flattening on even the official data which just like the UK UNDER REPORTs the actual number of deaths by likely 70%-80%! Still official data is all I have to work with and the curve on this graph does not look like it's flattening. Instead projects towards an End May death toll of about 110,000!

Tuesday, May 05, 2020

Stock Market Hit Resistance and Fell, Transportation Sector Forms Topping Pattern / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Recently, the Transportation Index and the S&P SPDR ETF setup topping patterns near the end of April 2020.  In terms of technical triggers, these patterns need to see additional downside price confirmation before we can confirm the true potential for these setups. If they do confirm, we could be starting a new downside price trend fairly soon.

The recent market upside price move is dramatically different on the TRAN chart vs. the SPY chart.  Even though the SPY price advance has mirrored the move in the ES and NQ, the TRAN upside price move has been more muted.  This is because global economic activity has continued to stall and is not translating into active shipping and trucking activity.  Remember, the Transportation Index helps us to understand the core levels of economic activity as parcels and products move around the globe.