Tuesday, April 21, 2020

Bending the Inflation Curve / Economics / Inflation

By: John_Mauldin

Our responses to the coronavirus threat, necessary though they may be, are creating massive supply and demand shocks, the rapidity of which is like nothing seen in centuries, if ever.

The Federal Reserve and other central banks are doing unprecedented things. Some think inflation will be the result. While that may happen eventually, I believe we will first go through the most massive deflationary shock of all time.

Milton Friedman famously said, “… inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon.” During the timeframe in which he and his colleague Anna Schwartz did their famous study, there was clearly a correlation between money supply and inflation. What is not often noted is that the velocity of money (i.e., the rate at which money changes hands) was stable during that time.

Tuesday, April 21, 2020

The Subtle Precious Metals Signals Keep Coming In / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: P_Radomski_CFA

The greenback exerts powerful influence on the precious metals – that has been the case yesterday, and it unsurprisingly continues to be so also today. So, what message is the USDX sending out right now?

USD Index in the Spotlight

We’ll open up with a quote from yesterday’s Alert (by the way, please remember that all charts are expandable/clickable):

Looking at the 4-hour candlestick chart, we see that the USD Index just formed a reversal and is now testing the previous lows. There were very few 4-hour reversals in the recent days, but when we saw them, big and fast rallies followed. The early-March bottom is particularly similar to the current situation as the USD Index is – just like back then – after a visible decline, and the 4h reversal was followed by a re-test of the intraday low.

Monday, April 20, 2020

COVID-19 and the Greater Recession / Depression of 2020-2021 / Economics / Coronavirus Depression

By: Christopher_Quigley

In February2012, utilising the chart below, I published an essay courtesy of Market Oracle outlining how, based on Kondratieff wave theory, the world economy could head into a depression between 2013 and 2020. We are now entering that depression, or at least great recession, in my humble opinion. This long wave analysis was developed by Nikolai Kondratiev, a Russian economist.  He was shot by firing squad on the orders of Stalin in 1938.  His execution was ordered because his academic work propounded that the capitalist system would not collapse as a result of the great depression of 1929. He saw recessions and depressions as normal cycles of the capitalist system due to its reliance on debt. He explained that:

Monday, April 20, 2020

The UK is now a near Communist state run by Conservatives / Politics / UK Politics

By: Submissions

The State and Politics

Monday, April 20, 2020

Federal Reserve Funds 165% Of Record Pandemic Deficit Spending Through Monetary Creation / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing

By: Dan_Amerman

Two extraordinary and unprecedented actions are being taken in the attempt to contain the economic damage from the national shutdown, and thereby attempt to prevent a depression. Each are on a scale we have never seen before, and each are almost certain to be very long lasting.

Even if the actions are "successful" - a depression is prevented and a severe recession is shortened - these radical actions occurring over a matter of months and years are not only likely to dominate our investments, savings and retirements throughout the rest of the 2020s, but they are likely to still be changing our lives decades from now, long after the COVID-19 pandemic has been forgotten by most.

Between the economic damage to the nation, the lost earnings and careers for individuals, and the costs of the containment of that damage, the shutdowns being used to "flatten the curve" are likely to be the single most expensive event in U.S. history. How the expenses of attempted containment are funded - will change everything, and the effects will stay with us for the rest of our lives.

Monday, April 20, 2020

Gilead Drug May Cure COVID-19 But Won’t Save the Financial Markets / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2020

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Big news out today on CNBC about Gilead drug cured all 125 people from serious COVID-19 conditions within 5 days, This is amazing to hear, stocks are popping today up 3-5% which is to be expected for this type of news but the damage to the financial markets has already been done.

But early data recently published suggests the Banking and Finance sector may continue to get crushed under a massive weight of real losses and exposure to risk in the Derivatives Markets.  As with the 2008-09 Credit Crisis, Derivatives losses extended compound risk factors by 10x to 20x or more for in some instances.  We believe the banking and finance sector may be setting up for a massive implosion if global derivatives implode as leveraged accounts collapse.

Monday, April 20, 2020

Finger Pulse Oximeter, Blood Oxygen Saturation Monitor Usage (Zacurate Amazon) / Personal_Finance / Health and Fitness

By: HGR

In this time of crisis when the healthcare systems are both overloaded and their facilities at higher risks of spreading contagion then this nifty little device that 'should' not cost too much though prices have been hyped ignorantly from the £20 or so they were selling fro towards £40, other than those that have just appeared on Amazon and thus likely or of dubious quality.

Nevertheless we did our research and bought one that's been on the market for several years with plenty of feedback so that we can help monitor oxygen levels at this present time of global crisis so as to know where we stand. Of course it's good to get some base line readings so as to ensure these oxygen sensors actually work as this video illustrates as we check out the Zacurate oximeter bought from Amazon for £36 (Zacurate® Pro Series CMS 500DL Fingertip Pulse Oximeter Blood Oxygen Saturation Monitor with Silicone Cover, Batteries and Lanyard Mystic).

Monday, April 20, 2020

How to Create a Foolproof Retirement Plan / Personal_Finance / Pensions & Retirement

By: Submissions

 One of the main rules to remember when drafting a retirement plan is to make sure not to run out of money. The second essential rule is never to ignore the first rule.

Very few people want to take significant risks when making investments for their retirement plans. Retirees want to stick to zero risk investments such as treasury bonds to avoid any unforeseen losses. However, these “safe investments” do not offer a substantial payback when it comes time to withdraw, and often the savings dry out way before time even if the retiree is making moderate withdrawals over their lifetime. To avoid these situations, it is essential to keep an investment portfolio diverse, keeping the need for safety of the investment and capital preservation both in mind. It is also crucial to consider factors such as economic growth and hedge inflation when designing a portfolio. This will keep the retiree safe from drying out their savings earlier than expected.

Monday, April 20, 2020

Supply, Demand, and Depreciation: Key Drivers for Copper, Gold and Silver as the Economy Reopens / Commodities / Metals & Mining

By: MoneyMetals

The metals markets are being pulled in multiple directions simultaneously like never before. The global virus-triggered economic freeze has caused industrial demand for all commodities to crater.

At the same time, mining output is also crashing as virus fears force many mines around the world to suspend operations.

What is the “right” equilibrium price for copper, silver, gold, and other metals in an environment of such extreme and unstable supply and demand stresses? The verdict of the market changes – often dramatically – day by day.

Monday, April 20, 2020

Stock Market End of Countertrend Rally / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: Andre_Gratian

Current Position of the Market

SPX Long-term trend: An “official” bear market has now been declared.

SPX Intermediate trend: Intermediate low mid-year.

Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily-basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discuss longer market trends.

Daily market analysis of the short-term trend is reserved for subscribers. If you would like to sign up for a FREE 4-week trial period of daily comments, please let me know at anvi1962@cableone.net

Sunday, April 19, 2020

Coronavirus Stock Market Trend Implications, Global Recession and AI Stocks Buying Levels / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Coronavirus Stock Market Trend Implications

Whilst the UK's trend trajectory appears to be stabilising, which offers some light at the end of Britains' dark coronavirus tunnel. However, the key driver for stock market trends, the US is still accelerating away which means more uncertainty that the stock markets are likely to seek to discount as the markets are seeking numbers that are first stabilising in the rate of increase and then to start decreasing on a daily basis, instead were still in the DOUBLING ever 2 to 3 days phase!

This implies to continue expect a bearish trend trajectory despite Fed panic actions, and the US sending $1200 checks to every american who earns under $75,000 per year, with likely several more payments over the coming months. Though Dr Fauci putting a number of 100k to 200k deaths may shock americans and the markets, especially given Trump's ramblings of how it will all be over by Easter. Nevertheless gives a number against which the general public and markets will be measuring relative strength and weakness. For instance the US is currently trending towards 38,000 deaths by the end April in the face of which the markets could out perform if the number of deaths is seen to far under achieve the bottom figure of 100k.

Sunday, April 19, 2020

Stock Market Range-bound Price Action Awaiting Resolution / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: Ricky_Wen

Wednesday's session played out as a range day. Most of the downside action occurred during Tuesday night, and Wednesday’s regular trading hours were spent bouncing from our key support zone in the 2750 area back to the middle of the range towards 2785/2800 on the Emini S&P 500 (ES). As we demonstrated in real-time in our ES Trading Room at ElliottWaveTrader, it was just a textbook feedback loop squeeze setup given that bears/sellers kept failing to breakdown below our key 2750's support.

The main takeaway remains the same: Price action is still battling between our 4-hour white line and red line price projections. Price action is inside a range of 2840-2750 for the time being and trapping both sides, so traders need to be more patient in this area and wait for additional clues/edges.

Sunday, April 19, 2020

Why the Coronavirus Could Raise Wages / Economics / Coronavirus Depression

By: Patrick_Watson

US unemployment shot higher in the last month, thanks to coronavirus closures. Some 17 million people filed new jobless benefit claims.

But it’s actually even worse.

Overwhelmed web sites and bureaucratic snafus kept many from applying. Others, while still nominally “employed,” saw their wages or hours cut. It’s terrible and will keep getting worse until the shutdowns ease and people believe they can circulate safely again.

But while the immediate outlook is dire, these events could ultimately mean higher wages for many workers. To see why, we have to think a few steps ahead.

Sunday, April 19, 2020

Does Gold Really Care Whether Coronavirus Brings Us Deflation or Inflation? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

One of the many bothering issues about the coronavirus crisis, is whether it will turn out to be inflationary or deflationary. What do both of these scenarios mean for gold ahead?

US Inflation Rate Declines in March

Many people are afraid that the coronavirus crisis will spur inflation. After all, the increased demand for food and hygiene products raised the prices of these goods. Moreover, the supply-side disruptions can reduce the availability of many goods, contributing to their increasing prices.

Sunday, April 19, 2020

An Alternative to the Lockdown Strategy in the Fight Against Coronavirus / Economics / Coronavirus Depression

By: Frank_Hollenbeck

The current coronavirus strategy of most governments is a recipe for a worldwide economic disaster. In many countries, the strategy of confinement and forcing shops to close is a sure-fire path to large-scale business failures. The cascade of economic and financial repercussions to come is likely to lead to another Great Depression.

Saturday, April 18, 2020

VITAMIN D3 Could Save Your Life! Protect From COVID-19 Infections / Personal_Finance / Health and Fitness

By: N_Walayat

Vitamin D could save your life! Latest medical studies confirm that Vitamin D3 protects from repertory infections bacterial or viral such as influenza and Covid-19!

Which means Vitamin D could :

a. Stop you from becoming infected.

b. If infected have a far milder illness

c. And if you are unlucky to have severe illness, then Vitamin D supplementation now could make the difference between recovering or dying!

Saturday, April 18, 2020

SILVER AND COVID-19, CAPITALISM’S BLACK SWAN / Economics / Coronavirus Depression

By: Darryl_R_Schoon

Regarding today’s markets and gold and silver, on April 15th,  Sandeep Jaitly wrote:

COURSE OF THE EXCHANGE

♦♦♦♦♦♦♦

Metals update: backwardation or not?

Over the past few weeks and months, there have been seismic changes in the way people are thinking of markets – and the concept of markets – generally.

As evidenced by movements in the Federal Reserve’s sale and repurchase facility from last September, which has resulted in the TARP balance sheet reaching a record of $6,000bn and at a record rate of over $630bn/month since the year began, there are ‘issues’ with all markets – in as much as markets are markets with ‘monetary’ fiat.

Saturday, April 18, 2020

If Stock Investors Crunched Economic Data Like This Their Expectations Would Change Dramatically / Economics / Coronavirus Depression

By: Chris_Vermeulen

New economic data being released as earnings start to hit may alter how investors perceive the recent price recovery in the US and global markets.  Many institutional analysts began suggesting “the bottom is in” and recently began to issue stronger forward guidance.  The new data suggests we are seeing an economic contraction that, in some cases, maybe 2x or 3x the contraction that took place in the 2008-09 Credit Crisis.

The US stock markets reacted to this news and earnings data by collapsing over -2% in early trading.  Gold and Silver are both lower as we write this article which would indicate weakness across the broader market.  We continue to believe a deeper price low will set up in the near future with the US and global stock prices attempting to retest recent price lows – possibly falling below these levels.  We believe the collateral damage to consumer engagement, manufacturing, transportation, retail/leisure, real estate and other sectors of the economy is just now starting to become evident.  What the economy may look like near Mid-May is anyone’s guess.

Saturday, April 18, 2020

In Every Stock Bear Market, One Asset Always Surges in Value / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: EWI

"The relative value of cash will necessarily zoom higher when stocks plunge."

A negative sentiment toward cash had been in place for quite some time.

Let's go back a little more than a year when our Feb. 2019 Elliott Wave Theorist showed this chart and said:

Saturday, April 18, 2020

Could This Be a “Suckers” Stock Market Rally? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Everyone I know who is not involved in the stock market or has little knowledge about it is calling me and asking what stocks, indexes, and commodities to buy because everything is so cheap and dividends are juicy again.

Just look at the market sentiment chart, and price cycles that the stock market goes through, and listen to my talk below while reviewing these to images. It’s not rocket science, but the lack of education on the financial markets coupled with the force of greed to make money and miss out on the next big bull market has everyone getting suckered into this dead-cat bounce, also known as a bear trap, bear market rally.