UK Corona Catastrophe Trend Analysis
Politics / Pandemic Jun 02, 2020 - 01:48 PM GMTBy: Nadeem_Walayat
The devastating consequences of the chinese Coronavirus catastrophe continues in terms of lives lost and severe economic contraction, which given who it's effecting and to what extent (the West) has all the hallmarks of being a bio-weapon that has in large part been engineered to target western population groups to a greater extent but which through negligence prematurely leaked out of the Wuhan bio lab and then proceeded to go on the rampage across world aided by infected Chinese travelers allowed to travel internationally whilst domestic flights out of Wuhan were suspended.
The whole of this extensive analysis that concludes in a detailed trend forecast for the Silver price was first made available to Patrons who support my work: UK and US Corona Catastrophe Trend Analysis, Stock Market State and Silver Price Trend Forecast Summer 2020
- UK Corona Catastrophe Trend Analysis
- FEEDING THE INFLATION MEGA-TREND
- US Corona Catastrophe Trend Analysis
- The Corona Riots of 2020 Have Begun!
- Stock Markets Failing to Give Another AI Mega-trend Buying Opportunity
- Silver vs Gold Trend
- Gold Silver Ratio
- Silver Long-term Trend Analysis
- Silver Trend Analysis
- Formulating a Trend Forecast
- Silver Price Trend Forecast Conclusion
So for immediate first access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $3 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.
UK Corona Catastrophe Trend Analysis
Britains half witted response to the coronavirus pandemic continues to unfold catastrophically, with bringing the pandemic under control virtually wholly left to the good sense of the general public to achieve as Government Ministers, MP's and Advisors fail to follow that which they have been preaching since the government ordered lockdown on the 23rd of March (a good 3 weeks too late).
THEY DO NOT PRACTICE THAT WHICH THEY PREACH! Which effectively means that Britain's LOCKDOWN is largely OVER! As the general public have been played for mugs. As illustrated by Dominic Cummings the Rasputin character at the heart of Boris Johnson's Government who at the height of the pandemic panic during late March, went on a 600 mile road trip across the UK whilst INFECTED, spewing viral particles all over the place, and especially in and around Durham, which included visiting a local beauty spot Bernard Castle for his wife's birthday, ALL WHILST INFECTED! NO self isolating for 14 days for this selfish ####!
Furthermore now that he has been exposed for BREAKING THE RULES, Boris Johnson's yes men cabinet has been busy explaining why Cummings was justified in BREAKING THE LOCKDOWN RULES! So Cummings instead of being sacked for effectively breaking the Lockdown law the politicians instead have done what they are good at which is using mealy mouthed excuses to subvert the truth.
Therefore Britains Lockdown is largely over because if the double standards of the Tory Government who never followed that which they ordered others to do.
Britain's official death toll now exceeds 37,000! It was only a couple of months ago the mad scientists advising the government were warning to expect upto 20,000 deaths if the people of Britain did not follow the lockdown rules, which they in large part have done with only the Tory Government MP's, ministers and their advisors breaking the lockdown rules. So Britain's response to the pandemic has been catastrophic even on the official government data.
Though as the ONS keeps reminding us every Tuesday, the real Covid-19 death toll is far higher than the official data, about 50% higher, so actual UK extra deaths right now are about 65,000 (including Scotland and NI)..
To further illustrate just how incompetent and negligent Boris Johnson's response to the crisis has been is to look at the world league table of deaths that has Britain only number 2 to the United States which has about 6 times the population.
Meanwhile Pretty polly Patel is announcing that anyone entering the UK from the 8th of June will need to self isolate, ignorant of the fact that it is the people of the UK who need to be quarantined when leaving and infecting the rest of Europe! Maybe if the morons in charge had quarantined infected Chinese in January and February when they landed in their hundreds spewing viral particles all over the place then Britain would not be in it's current Coronavirus crisis!
It gets worse, the NHS in all of it's wisdom discharged infected elderly patients to care homes to make space during February, and March and into April who then went on to trigger outbreaks across Britians care homes, with the same idiots now promising to investigate why there have been so many deaths in Britains care homes. Remember that when one claps for the NHS every Thursday. It's as though there is a cunning evil mastermind, a bond-esk villain who has been successful in every action to both spread the virus and cripple Britain's economy.
Trend Analysis
A better picture of the current state of the UK pandemic can be gleaned from the daily deaths chart coupled with moving averages.
The daily trend is definitely downwards on a weekly basis as illustrated by the 7 day average currently standing at 251, down from a peak of 1116. Whilst the 14 day moving average stands at 305 down from a peak of 959. In technical terms as long as the 7 day moving average remains below the 14 day average then pandemic is reducing and thus the UK should be okay to start relaxing lockdown rules soon, perhaps by Mid June if the 7 day average dips below 100. Which would be useful timing because the the government has lost a lot of it's authority in ordering lockdown's following revelations of those in charge failing to follow their own rules. Nevertheless the hot sun means that the viral particles are soon broken down by heat and UV rays so the reducing deaths trend should continue during June at least.
Though if this were a stock chart then that the pattern looks CORRECTIVE which means we need to brace ourselves for a 2nd peak and more lockdown's later in the year as the sun goes down and people become more relaxed about their social distancing, we may not pass the 3713 deaths per day peak but it's definitely going to surge above 1,000 deaths per day, lets see if a vaccine appears during September to help prevent a 2nd peak.
The whole of this extensive analysis that concludes in a detailed trend forecast for the Silver price was first made available to Patrons who support my work: UK and US Corona Catastrophe Trend Analysis, Stock Market State and Silver Price Trend Forecast Summer 2020
- UK Corona Catastrophe Trend Analysis
- FEEDING THE INFLATION MEGA-TREND
- US Corona Catastrophe Trend Analysis
- The Corona Riots of 2020 Have Begun!
- Stock Markets Failing to Give Another AI Mega-trend Buying Opportunity
- Silver vs Gold Trend
- Gold Silver Ratio
- Silver Long-term Trend Analysis
- Silver Trend Analysis
- Formulating a Trend Forecast
- Silver Price Trend Forecast Conclusion
So for immediate first access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $3 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.
And ensure you are subscribed to my ALWAYS FREE newsletter for my next in-depth analysis.
Your analyst reminding all not to let their guard down due to corona fatigue, as a 3.5% CFR warrants continuing caution.
Nadeem Walayat
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Nadeem Walayat has over 30 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.
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