US and UK Black Lives Matter Protests, Riots and Looting To Trigger 2nd Covid-19 Wave Peak?

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Briefly, the protesting and rioting of the past week that has shown little signs of social distancing coupled with relaxation of lockdown's is likely to trigger a second wave of sorts that a few weeks down the road could result in a rising death tolls for both the US and UK.

As things stand the Covid-19 deaths trend in the US continues to move the right direction with the 7 day average at 835 and the 14 day at distant 970, though the rate of decline has slowed over the past couple of weeks that implies that the US could be at risk of at least stalling at an average of about 800 deaths per day and worse risk an upwards trend towards a second peak over the coming weeks.

UK deaths 7 day average stands at 196, with the 14 day at 218 as the decline in the daily number of UK deaths just like the US is giving early warning signs of stalling, that could be a prelude to a second peak, though at this point in time is unlikely to be significantly result in more than 500 deaths per day as the UK largely remains under lockdown with for instance schools teaching barely 1/3rd of students for more 1 day a week.

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Nadeem Walayat has over 30 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

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