Thursday, October 01, 2015

Stock Market 180 in 50 Weeks. This is Different / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Ashraf_Laidi

A lot has happened since that fateful October bottom in stocks, which was driven by a multitude of factors namely, market worries over end of Fed QE and escalating casualties from the Ebola virus. But those were only worries and not factual manifestations of data weakness. Today, the extended weakness in the world's biggest buyer of commodities, combined with the erosion of the "Gulf Nations' Put" as well as the decline in EM FX reserves is a de facto tightening from in and capital markets.

Thursday, October 01, 2015

Stock Market S&P 500 Volatility-Based Price Probability Range / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Richard_Shaw

• Historical volatility projection suggests the range of probable S&P 500 prices from around 1750 to 2050 by year-end
• Major trend indicators suggest high probability of prices ending in the lower half of the probability range
• GAAP P/E and forward operating P/E ratios reverting to 5-year and 10-year averages suggest prices in the 1700’s
• GAAP earnings have turned down and prices tend to follow
• But GAAP earnings yield relative to current and near-term prospective 10-year Treasury yield is supportive of current index price

Thursday, October 01, 2015

The Great Illinois Gold Rush! / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2015

By: DeviantInvestor

There is no gold rush in Illinois.  The important question is, “Why Not?”

Per Mike Shedlock (Mish) here and here:

• “Illinois is in serious financial trouble.”
• “Illinois has no current budget.”
• “The reality is Illinois is flat-out broke.”

Thursday, October 01, 2015

Dow Stock Market About To Crash Like October 1929? Get Your Physical Silver / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash

By: Hubert_Moolman

Significant nominal peaks in the price of silver tend to come after significant nominal peaks in the Dow. This has been the case for the last 100 years at least.
It is no coincidence that significant silver rallies follow after significant Dow rallies end, as I have explained before. It is simply a natural reaction to what caused the stock market rally as well as the effects of that rally. So, if it happened before, it will certainly occur again.

Thursday, October 01, 2015

Stock Market Negative Expectations Once Again - Will It Break Down? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Paul_Rejczak

Briefly: In our opinion, speculative long positions are favored (with stop-loss at 1,810, and profit target at 2,020, S&P 500 index)

Our intraday outlook is bullish, and our short-term outlook is bullish:

Intraday outlook (next 24 hours): bullish
Short-term outlook (next 1-2 weeks): bullish
Medium-term outlook (next 1-3 months): bearish
Long-term outlook (next year): bullish

Thursday, October 01, 2015

Advice for Biotech Investors: 'Hold Your Powder' 'til Winter / Companies / BioTech

By: TLSReport

While waiting for biotech stocks to correct, investors should be focused on performing due diligence, says Hartaj Singh of investment firm BTIG LLC. Growth in company valuations has outpaced sales for several years, but the coming weeks will see rapid fluctuations as the two begin to realign. In this interview, Singh shares his predictions for the rest of 2015 with The Life Sciences Report, and identifies several companies to hold for potentially big returns.

Thursday, October 01, 2015

Best Short-Term Commodity Market Opportunities - Video / Commodities / Commodities Trading

By: EWI

Dear Investor,

Elliott Wave International's Senior Commodity Analyst, Jeffrey Kennedy, has just recorded a live webinar titled "Today's Top Commodity Opportunities."

Thursday, October 01, 2015

US Dollar El Peso Colombiano! / Currencies / US Dollar

By: Austin_Galt

It was the year 2001 when I first entered the country of Colombia. I crossed over the Rumichaca Bridge which separates Ecuador and Colombia and got the first bus of the day from Ipiales headed for Cali. I'd considered travelling overnight but had thought better of it having been warned about night time robberies along the way.

It wasn't long into my Colombian adventure when things heated up. Around 3 hours into the journey, travelling in some spectacular mountain scenery between the towns of Pasto and Popayan, the bus came to a screeching halt. That was because around five men in military fatigues jumped into the middle of the Panamericana highway pointing their guns at the bus. Here we go!

Thursday, October 01, 2015

Stock Market Closing the Books on September...Pessimism Extreme...Testing Weekly Support Lines.. / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Jack_Steiman

I thought, based on the markets behavior ending last Friday, that we'd see a bull-bear spread on the Investors-Intelligence survey of around minus -7% today when the new number was released. I wasn't pessimistic enough apparently as the number came in at -10.4%. With the action we saw in the market Monday and Tuesday it's actually quite possible we're now at lower levels on this measure. It goes to show you how fast things can unwind from froth to fear when all the leading froth stocks get completely annihilated, such as we've seen in the world of biotechs.

Wednesday, September 30, 2015

The Coming Corporate "Crime Wave" / Companies / Government Intervention

By: William_Anderson

William L. Anderson writes: In a recent appearance before Congress, Deputy Attorney General Sally Quillian Yates declared that the US Department of Justice is going to ratchet up its prosecution of individuals employed in corporations as part of a larger push against “white collar crime.” There is no doubt that such prosecutions will be very popular to a large section of voters, given that presidential candidates like Bernie Sanders, Hillary Clinton, and Martin O’Malley, along with Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren pretty much have declared that nearly all American businesses are part of a massive criminal conspiracy that must be brought down by federal authorities.

Wednesday, September 30, 2015

Stock Market Retracement May Have Run Its Course / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

SPX met neckline resistance near 1912.00 and has been repelled near the Fibonacci 50% retracement level at 1912.35. Apparently there were a significant number of stops at 1910.00 that attracted the Algos.

The algos appear to be spinning their wheels at 1916.50, which may be the top of this retracement. Selling pressure appears to be settling in.

Wednesday, September 30, 2015

A Stocks Bear Market Is Now More Likely Than Not / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market

By: Richard_Shaw

• A Bear market from this Correction is more likely than not
• Yield Curve suggests Bull has further to go
• Breadth measures suggest Bull is exhausted
• Triple top and Head & Shoulders pattern suggests breakout to the downside
• 4 Factor Technical indicator suggests Bear is around the corner

Wednesday, September 30, 2015

The Killer Ape, Human Evolution, Artificial Intelligence and Extinction End Game / Politics / Evolution

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Some 7 million years ago our human ancestors split from the Apes that would go on to become our closest living relative the Chimpanzee. For the next 5 million years our ancestors would have physically looked little different to modern Chimpanzees  as well as in terms of behaviour and circumstances as there was a very gradual process of evolution of physical abilities such as walking upright in addition to still being good at climbing trees. Even as recently as 2 million years ago, some 3 million years into the age of the Australopithecine's, they would not have looked that different to modern Chimpanzees, living a precariously frightened existence constantly falling victim to predators, and where brains were of comparable size to Chimpanzees, about 1/3rd the cranial capacity of modern man.

Wednesday, September 30, 2015

China Boosts Gold Reserves 1% in August, Diversifying Assets / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: GoldCore

In his article for Bloomberg Business Ranjeetha Pakiam takes a look at China’s recent accumulations in gold and how the country now compares in the world league table on gold holdings. He observes that there is a deliberate policy of increased transparency in China “as the country improves data quality, increases its presence in commodities trading and promotes the international role of the yuan”.

Wednesday, September 30, 2015

Stocks One More Crash Leg Down Into Mid October / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Gary_Savage

Stocks should be getting close to a bounce out of the half cycle low, but there should still be one more crash leg down into mid October before the 7 year crash low is complete. The 200 week moving average is at roughly 1700. I would think that would be a minimum target with a maximum target at 1550.

Wednesday, September 30, 2015

Help to Buy keeps the UK Housing Mortgage Market Alive Two Years On / Housing-Market / UK Housing

By: MoneyFacts

The Help to Buy Mortgage Guarantee Scheme will soon be celebrating its second birthday. Phase two aimed to help borrowers who have a 5% deposit buy a home by giving lenders a Government-backed guarantee of 15% of the mortgage.

Since its launch in October 2013, the 95% loan-to-value (LTV) mortgage market has changed dramatically, and data from Moneyfacts.co.uk has revealed that not only are there now lower rates available for borrowers with small deposits, but there’s also far more product choice.

Wednesday, September 30, 2015

More U.S. Municipal Bankruptcies on the Way / Politics / US Debt

By: BATR

Even to the casual observer, the financial condition of government budgets are under severe stress. Taxes have gone up consistently and have outpaced any meager adjustments in income for most taxpayers. No one can reasonably expect that municipal financing is assured by simply raising assessments and rates to keep their bloated bureaucracies solvent. Since the middle class has never recovered from the money centered meltdown, the average community struggles with diminished resources.

Wednesday, September 30, 2015

Junk Bond Market Imminent Collapse Threatens (Unwelcome) BIG Rate Rises / Interest-Rates / International Bond Market

By: Clive_Maund

Everyone is so focused on looking at the Fed and whether or not it decides to raise rates by a puny 0.25%, that they are completely overlooking the fact that it is the market's role to set interest rates, and if the Fed is not up to the job, then the markets will eventually take over and do it in a manner that is likely to involve rises vastly greater than a mere 0.25%, which given the current fragile and extremely unstable debt structure, can be expected to have catastrophic consequences.

Wednesday, September 30, 2015

What Could Reverse The Global Stock and Commodity Markets Decline? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Clif_Droke

Falling stock and commodity prices around the world are underscoring a change of fortunes for the global economy. As the shockwaves from Europe, China and the developing markets spreads, there is a growing sense among investors that the U.S. might be the next casualty of the global slowdown.

Economists have already begun questioning what, if anything, the Federal Reserve might be able to do to stem the financial market selling pressure. Weakness has been broad-based and is visible in stocks, commodities as well as high-yield corporate bonds. Since the first bear market of the new millennium, the Fed has played an outsized role as a stimulator of equity markets and the economy.

Wednesday, September 30, 2015

Panic Is Spreading, Part 1: Surge in Junk Bond Defaults Imminent / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: John_Rubino

One of the early signs that a cycle is about to turn down is disorder in junk bonds. That’s because the companies that issue such bonds are by definition financially and/or operationally weak and therefore ultra-sensitive to changes in their environment. A modest drop in, say, consumer spending or the price of wind turbines will hardly be noticed by an Apple or GE but might threaten the survival of those companies’ weakest competitors. And as credit bubbles inflate, the weak in every field tend to proliferate as overexcited bankers and bond funds offer them plenty of rope with which to hang themselves.