Wednesday, December 18, 2024
Silver’s Evolving Market: Bright Prospects and Lingering Challenges / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2024
By: Submissions
Silver is stepping back into the spotlight, glinting with the promise of rising prices, surging demand, and shifting market dynamics. Building on insights from my previous article, “Silver Worth $150-$170? Facts to Make the Case for a Major Price Surge,” it’s clear the metal isn’t just playing second fiddle to gold, it’s tuning up for its own symphony.
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Wednesday, December 18, 2024
Extreme Levels of Work-for-Gold Ratio / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2024
By: P_Radomski_CFA
How many hours of work would it take to purchase one ounce of gold? Now you’ll know.
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Monday, December 16, 2024
Tesla $460, Bitcoin $107k, S&P 6080 - The Pump Continues! / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2024
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
Latest Market Brief 16th Dec 2024
Tesla $460 - I sold a big chunk today now down to 11% invested, 2.7% of portfolio, Fomo mania in msm and twit land, I"ll probably have sold 80% by 500! I remember when I bought huge at $166 those who followed were soon crying because it continued to fall to a low of $139, that's the thing, one does not want to try and buy THE low because you won't! At THE low you'll think THE low is much lower. Now folk wish they could turn back time and buy at $166 just as I said they will wish they could in the not too distant future. How to time travel will be a topic in my next article ��
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Sunday, December 15, 2024
Stock Market Risk to the Upside! S&P 7000 Forecast 2025 / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2025
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Just so that we are all reading from the same page - A Correction is a Correction is a Correction, 5500 vs 5750 is not even 5%! Primary focus is to remain exposed to the AI mega-trend stocks and seek opps to accumulate as they come along, look at what happened to Chinese AI tech stocks!
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Sunday, December 15, 2024
Stock Market 2025 Mid Decade Year / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2025
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Statistically 2025 is expected to be the stronger of 2022,2023 and 2024, which again is supportive of the thesis that 2025 will see a gain of between 20% and 30% and probably nearer to 30%, i.e. a rip the face of the bears rally where those sat on the sidelines throw caution to the wind and FOMO in propelling the S&P well beyond 7000 towards 8000
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Sunday, December 15, 2024
Sheffield Christmas Market 2024 Is a Building Site / Local / Sheffield
By: N_Walayat
Sheffield city clowncil had a whole year to prepare for the big city centre event of 2024, Christmas markets, one would have thought that the clowncil would pull out the stops to deliver as good a market event as they did for 2023, instead when visiting the Sheffield Christmas market we were met with a bloody building site! Fargate is a ruin! What they did to Castle Market they have now done to Fargate! This stupid useless city clowncil!
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Sunday, December 15, 2024
Got Copper or Gold Miners? Watch Out / Commodities / Metals & Mining
By: P_Radomski_CFA
Copper, silver, and gold quite often move together, especially during the big moves.
Impending Massive Slide
And this is currently very helpful.
Given gold’s recent decline and a much bigger decline in silver and mining stocks, one might wonder whether miners’ and silver’s weakness are telling the truth about the precious metals market’s outlook, or if it’s gold that’s been holding up relatively well.
Friday, December 13, 2024
Republican vs Democrat Presidents and the Stock Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Stock market performance based on whether the President is Democrat or Republican.
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Friday, December 13, 2024
Stock Market Up 8 Out of First 9 months / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Nadeem_Walayat
A strong September during a strong year that has only seen 1 down month (April), so what does this rare pattern suggest could come next?
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Friday, December 13, 2024
What Does a Strong Sept Mean for the Stock Market? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Nadeem_Walayat
September is seasonally the weakest month of the year, and has been so for 3 years in a row until September 2024 resulting in the unexpected up closing month, though there are too factors that should be obvious -
1. Three years down in a row increases the probability for an UP September, a little more attention to detail should have flagged this as being probable.
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Friday, December 13, 2024
Is Trump the Most Pro-Stock Market President Ever? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: EWI
According to CNBC on November 11, "Trump Is the Most Pro-Stock Market President in History." "The stock market could enjoy a bigger boost from President-elect Donald Trump than any previous administration," says the author of Stocks for the Long Run.
This belief is producing some spectacular risk-on biases. Here's a November 22 headline from Bloomberg that highlights investors' willingness to embrace his supposed influence on the futures markets: "Trump Set to Supercharge Options Boom by Retail Investors."
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Friday, December 13, 2024
Interest Rates, Unemployment and the SPX / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Donald_W_Dony
December's Federal Reserve meeting next week suggests a 25bps rate reduction. Traders are consolidating bets on a 90% chance of a cut by year-end. Still, there are concerns that price expansion will be sticky to lower. Core inflation remains unchanged at 3.30%. In addition, upside tariff threats and tax cuts magnified inflation risks. Both policies result in expansionary pressures.
The bond market and the US dollar illustrate the balancing act of persistent inflationary pressure and keeping interest rates low to support the economy (Chart 1).
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Friday, December 13, 2024
Fed Balance Sheet Continues To Decline / Interest-Rates / US Federal Reserve Bank
By: Kelsey_Williams
FED BALANCE SHEET
Below is a chart posted and updated regularly by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis…
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Sunday, December 08, 2024
Trump Stocks and Crypto Mania 2025 Incoming as Bitcoin Breaks Above $100k / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2025
By: Nadeem_Walayat
S&P is up 27.5% YTD! This after a 24% gain for 2023, this is NOT NORMAL, we are in early stage FOMO MANIA! Further evidence for which one only need look at crypto's as BTC up 130% YTD broke above $100k trading to $104k before the exchanges FLASH CRASHED leveraged longs out of their positions and now trading back over $100k.
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Sunday, December 08, 2024
Gold Price Multiple Confirmations - Are You Ready? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2024
By: P_Radomski_CFA
In my yesterday’s Gold Trading Alert, I wrote that we had some clues regarding the end of the corrective upswing.
Corrective Upswing Nearing Its End
We saw an invalidation in the GDXJ (of the tiny move to new short-term highs), and before that silver outperformed on a short-term basis, which was also a bearish indication. Today, we got some more.
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Sunday, December 08, 2024
Gold Price Monster Upleg Lives / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2024
By: Zeal_LLC
Gold’s monster upleg remains alive and well, after weathering a sharp post-election selloff. One had certainly been due, as gold had just surged to extremely-overbought levels. The resulting pullback was big and fast, doing much essential rebalancing work. Gold’s resilience defying some bearish headwinds is a bullish omen. Despite its massive size, this monster upleg doesn’t look ready to give up its ghost yet.
I don’t use this “monster” term lightly, reserving it for gold uplegs exceeding 40% gains. Over a long 12.9-month span from early October 2023 to late October 2024, gold rocketed a jaw-dropping 53.1% higher! A year ago gold achieved its first nominal record close in fully 3.3 years. Since then, a whopping 42 more have been written into the books! Superlatives don’t overstate the magnitude of gold’s powerful bull run.
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Monday, December 02, 2024
Stock & Crypto Markets Going into December 2024 / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2024
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
It's your lucky day, you get access to my most recent market brief -
Stock & Crypto's Market Brief 1st Dec 2024 - (6pm UK Time)
Folk keep messaging me that Bitcoins down, Solana's down, Doge is down and if they are now a good buy, I reply "dude you're a year late to the party!"
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Friday, November 29, 2024
US Presidential Election Year Stock Market Seasonal Trend / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Nadeem_Walayat
So far the election year seasonal trend has had 4 misses out of 9 months, so on it's own as is the case with most individual pieces of analysis has been a coin flip as to whether any particular month will follow the seasonal pattern or not.
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Friday, November 29, 2024
Who controls the past controls the future: who controls the present controls the past / Politics / Palestine
By: Nadeem_Walayat
"Who controls the past controls the future: who controls the present controls the past" - George Orwell
In a heated comments section a Patron recently commented, "what have the Arabs ever invented!"
Good luck with anything that resembles the modern world without Alchemy, Algebra, and of course Algorithms and much more during Islam's 400 year golden age, of course they built on what came before, devouring Greek texts that Christian Europe was busy burning as heretical texts, mathematics including the 0-9 numeric system that originates from India which we all take for granted that would take some 500 years to be eventually adopted by Europe, without any of this there would have been no Renaissance and Enlightenment instead we would all be out working the fields today on X_VI_MMXXIV whilst probably the United States of New Arabia would now be calling the shots on the world stage, what happened? The Mongol's is what happened! The mother of all Black Swans that changed the course of history,
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Friday, November 29, 2024
Gold After Trump Wins / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2024
By: Zeal_LLC
Gold has sure had a wild ride in the several weeks since the US elections! It first plunged then surged after Trump’s decisive victory, which surprised legions of traders. Gold’s earlier big down days helped fuel fears another Trump administration is bearish for gold. Its poor performance after Trump’s first win eight years ago buttresses that case. But that’s probably not predictive in today’s wildly-different environment.
On Election Day 2024, gold closed at $2,743. That was just 1.5% under its latest nominal record high achieved four trading days earlier. But the next day when Trump’s big win was already apparent, gold plunged 3.0%. That was its worst day by far since a 3.6% plummeting in early June on a huge US-jobs upside surprise, which in turn was gold’s biggest daily loss in 3.6 years. Then more post-election selling came.
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