Friday, December 13, 2024
Is Trump the Most Pro-Stock Market President Ever? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: EWI
According to CNBC on November 11, "Trump Is the Most Pro-Stock Market President in History." "The stock market could enjoy a bigger boost from President-elect Donald Trump than any previous administration," says the author of Stocks for the Long Run.
This belief is producing some spectacular risk-on biases. Here's a November 22 headline from Bloomberg that highlights investors' willingness to embrace his supposed influence on the futures markets: "Trump Set to Supercharge Options Boom by Retail Investors."
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Friday, December 13, 2024
Interest Rates, Unemployment and the SPX / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Donald_W_Dony
December's Federal Reserve meeting next week suggests a 25bps rate reduction. Traders are consolidating bets on a 90% chance of a cut by year-end. Still, there are concerns that price expansion will be sticky to lower. Core inflation remains unchanged at 3.30%. In addition, upside tariff threats and tax cuts magnified inflation risks. Both policies result in expansionary pressures.
The bond market and the US dollar illustrate the balancing act of persistent inflationary pressure and keeping interest rates low to support the economy (Chart 1).
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Friday, December 13, 2024
Fed Balance Sheet Continues To Decline / Interest-Rates / US Federal Reserve Bank
By: Kelsey_Williams
FED BALANCE SHEET
Below is a chart posted and updated regularly by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis…
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Sunday, December 08, 2024
Trump Stocks and Crypto Mania 2025 Incoming as Bitcoin Breaks Above $100k / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2025
By: Nadeem_Walayat
S&P is up 27.5% YTD! This after a 24% gain for 2023, this is NOT NORMAL, we are in early stage FOMO MANIA! Further evidence for which one only need look at crypto's as BTC up 130% YTD broke above $100k trading to $104k before the exchanges FLASH CRASHED leveraged longs out of their positions and now trading back over $100k.
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Sunday, December 08, 2024
Gold Price Multiple Confirmations - Are You Ready? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2024
By: P_Radomski_CFA
In my yesterday’s Gold Trading Alert, I wrote that we had some clues regarding the end of the corrective upswing.
Corrective Upswing Nearing Its End
We saw an invalidation in the GDXJ (of the tiny move to new short-term highs), and before that silver outperformed on a short-term basis, which was also a bearish indication. Today, we got some more.
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Sunday, December 08, 2024
Gold Price Monster Upleg Lives / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2024
By: Zeal_LLC
Gold’s monster upleg remains alive and well, after weathering a sharp post-election selloff. One had certainly been due, as gold had just surged to extremely-overbought levels. The resulting pullback was big and fast, doing much essential rebalancing work. Gold’s resilience defying some bearish headwinds is a bullish omen. Despite its massive size, this monster upleg doesn’t look ready to give up its ghost yet.
I don’t use this “monster” term lightly, reserving it for gold uplegs exceeding 40% gains. Over a long 12.9-month span from early October 2023 to late October 2024, gold rocketed a jaw-dropping 53.1% higher! A year ago gold achieved its first nominal record close in fully 3.3 years. Since then, a whopping 42 more have been written into the books! Superlatives don’t overstate the magnitude of gold’s powerful bull run.
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Monday, December 02, 2024
Stock & Crypto Markets Going into December 2024 / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2024
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
It's your lucky day, you get access to my most recent market brief -
Stock & Crypto's Market Brief 1st Dec 2024 - (6pm UK Time)
Folk keep messaging me that Bitcoins down, Solana's down, Doge is down and if they are now a good buy, I reply "dude you're a year late to the party!"
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Friday, November 29, 2024
US Presidential Election Year Stock Market Seasonal Trend / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Nadeem_Walayat
So far the election year seasonal trend has had 4 misses out of 9 months, so on it's own as is the case with most individual pieces of analysis has been a coin flip as to whether any particular month will follow the seasonal pattern or not.
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Friday, November 29, 2024
Who controls the past controls the future: who controls the present controls the past / Politics / Palestine
By: Nadeem_Walayat
"Who controls the past controls the future: who controls the present controls the past" - George Orwell
In a heated comments section a Patron recently commented, "what have the Arabs ever invented!"
Good luck with anything that resembles the modern world without Alchemy, Algebra, and of course Algorithms and much more during Islam's 400 year golden age, of course they built on what came before, devouring Greek texts that Christian Europe was busy burning as heretical texts, mathematics including the 0-9 numeric system that originates from India which we all take for granted that would take some 500 years to be eventually adopted by Europe, without any of this there would have been no Renaissance and Enlightenment instead we would all be out working the fields today on X_VI_MMXXIV whilst probably the United States of New Arabia would now be calling the shots on the world stage, what happened? The Mongol's is what happened! The mother of all Black Swans that changed the course of history,
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Friday, November 29, 2024
Gold After Trump Wins / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2024
By: Zeal_LLC
Gold has sure had a wild ride in the several weeks since the US elections! It first plunged then surged after Trump’s decisive victory, which surprised legions of traders. Gold’s earlier big down days helped fuel fears another Trump administration is bearish for gold. Its poor performance after Trump’s first win eight years ago buttresses that case. But that’s probably not predictive in today’s wildly-different environment.
On Election Day 2024, gold closed at $2,743. That was just 1.5% under its latest nominal record high achieved four trading days earlier. But the next day when Trump’s big win was already apparent, gold plunged 3.0%. That was its worst day by far since a 3.6% plummeting in early June on a huge US-jobs upside surprise, which in turn was gold’s biggest daily loss in 3.6 years. Then more post-election selling came.
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Wednesday, November 27, 2024
The AI Stocks, Housing, Inflation and Bitcoin Crypto Mega-trends / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2024
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
Folk keep messaging me that Bitcoins down, Solana's down, Doge is down and if they are now a good buy, I reply "dude you're a year late to the party!"
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Wednesday, November 27, 2024
Gold Price Ahead of the Thanksgiving Weekend / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2024
By: P_Radomski_CFA
Today we finally see it – the USDX moved lower at last. USD’s breather here is nothing surprising, and it’s not bearish either.It’s simply normal for a market to correct after launching a rally as strong as what we saw in October and November.
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Monday, November 25, 2024
Bitcoin Gravy Train Trend Forecast to June 2025 / Currencies / Bitcoin
By: Nadeem_Walayat
President Donald Trump's win Pumps the markets, Bitcoin, Crypto's and stocks to the moon. Bitcoin pumps to $99k whilst Alt coins literally go nuts and not just the big markets such as Solana that has 10xd, but even once taken for dead coins such as ADA have 4xd over a few short weeks. And then we have the no brainier trade of the year Microstrategy, which back in January was trading at just $44 that durng the past week rocketed higher to $548, that's more than a 10X move!
All of which my Patrons had OVER a YEAR to plan towards capitalising upon, so whilst the Crypto Gravy train has been rolling for over a year we have a lot further left to run as my following in-depth analysis laid the ground work for that was first made available to Patrons for just $7 bucks! 10X for just $7 bucks! This is ridiculous I am way under selling myself as those who follow me soon find out!
Just $7 bucks for immediate first access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts.
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Thursday, November 21, 2024
Stocks, Bitcoin and Crypto Markets Breaking Bad on Donald Trump Pump / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2024
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Donald Trump election win sends bitcoin, crypto and stock markets into a euphoric high on prospects for the forthcoming money printing binge. We may all be getting high on the pump right now but you all know it's not going to end well for most, those who FOMO into the highs, no matter how much we try game this, it's going to be a tough balancing act between how much we manage to take off the casino tables before the music stops and the SHTF!
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Thursday, November 21, 2024
Gold Price To Re-Test $2,700 / Commodities / Gold & Silver Stocks 2024
By: P_Radomski_CFA
That’s an interesting situation that we have today. Gold us up, but silver and miners are down. What gives?Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, November 21, 2024
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: This Is My Strong Warning To You / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Avi_Gilburt
As the market has now struck the upper end of my long-term target set many years ago, it seems many have embraced this bull market, to the extent that they see no reason for it to end. However, that is usually the time one has to pay attention for the potential for it to come an end.
The last 25 years have only reinforced the common perspective that the market “always comes back.” Whether we are speaking about the manner in which investors have been trained in a Pavlovian fashion to believe in the omnipotent power of the Fed or whether we are speaking about the manner in which the market has always come back stronger after each larger drop seen over the last 25 years, there is one thing that has become a certainty in the market: Buy and hold is the ONLY way to go.
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Thursday, November 21, 2024
Financial Crisis 2025 - This is Going to Shock People! / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash
By: EWI
"It's going to make 2008 look like child's play," says ElliottWave Trader's Avi Gilburt when discussing the precarious balance sheets of U.S. banks with Elliott Wave International's Robert Prechter.
In the just-released webinar "A Fireside Market Chat with Robert Prechter & Avi Gilburt," Gilburt shares the story of his year-and-a-half study of U.S. banks and said what he discovered "is going to shock people." You can learn the disturbing details of his findings by accessing the webinar for free.
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Monday, November 18, 2024
Dubai Deluge - AI Tech Stocks Earnings Correction Opportunities / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2024
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
President Donald Trump Win Pumps the markets, Bitcoin, Crypto's and stocks higher, most missed the Trump win due to MSM propaganda and echo chambers, of course after the fact it was obvious to everyone that Trump would win, yeah sure it was, the trick is to say and act on it BEFORE the event not a week AFTER it happens! One can't place bets on Trump to win AFTER it's happened!
Donald Pump winning has been my consistent view ALL YEAR, where I iterated why Kamala Harris taking over from lost all of his marbles Biden was not going to make any difference to the outcome in fact regardless of the polls that consistently gave Harris a lead the exact opposite would be true, the election result was not even going to be close, a landslide win for Trump was incoming that would pump the markets, send crypto assets and stocks including Tesla to the moon so that is where the big bets should be.
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Friday, November 08, 2024
Why President Trump Has NO Real Power - Deep State Military Industrial Complex / Politics / US Presidential Election
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Donald Trump wins! However, the US President has NO REAL POWER - Over the decades the Deep State Military Industrial Complex has eroded what power the office of the President had as Eisenhower warned would happen when he left office in 1961.
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Friday, November 08, 2024
Social Grant Increases and Serge Belamant Amid South Africa's New Political Landscape / Politics / Social Issues
By: Sumeet_Manhas
South Africa’s welfare system is navigating turbulent political and economic waters following the May 2024 general election. For the first time since the end of apartheid, the African National Congress (ANC) lost its parliamentary majority, forcing it into a coalition with the Democratic Alliance (DA) in a Government of National Unity (GNU). This seismic shift in South African politics is significant for both governance and welfare, as key social programs such as the social grant system remain vital to millions of citizens.Read full article... Read full article...