Bitcoin Break Out, MSTR Rocket to the Moon! AI Tech Stocks Earnings Season
Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2024 Feb 10, 2025 - 05:51 AM GMTBy: Nadeem_Walayat
The US President has NO REAL POWER - Over the decades the Deep State Military Industrial Complex has eroded what power the office of the President had as Eisenhower warned would happen when he left office in 1961.
Once upon a time Presidents battled to control the reach of the military industrial complex, now they are mere puppets on the payroll of the Deep State. Biden would have been the perfect puppet president as most of the time he does not even remember who he is!
Not to worry both puppets currently standing are just acting out a role for the masses and as the great Bill Hicks once said -
On his first day in office the new president is introduced to his staff, they all congratulate him then someone says “And if you can just come through here Mr President…” and they take him to a side room, sit him down and run the Zapruder film of Kennedy’s head being blown off. “Now lets talk about how things actually work round here Mr President…”
https://youtu.be/d3q6Ar3IV34
Fight the Power!
This article Bitcoin Break Out, MSTR Rocket to the Moon! AI Tech Stocks Earnings Season Part 2 was first made available to patrons who support my work. So for immediate first access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $7 per month, lock it in now at $7 before it rises to $10 per month for new sign-ups . https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.
Most Recent Analysis -
President Chaos Delivering Tariffs Buying Opps - Earnings GOOG, AMD, QCOM, RBLX, AMZN
CONTENTS
Bitcoin Seasonal Trend
BItcoin Breaking Out
Bitcoin Big Picture
MSTR $272 �� ����️������������ ������
MSTR Dream For Some WIll be a Nightmare for Most!
AI Stocks Portfolio Earnings Season
30th - Microsoft $427 - EGF's +2%, +19%, Dir +1%, PE 36.2, PE Range 89% / 38%
30th - KLAC $674 - EGF's +15%, +30%, Dir +14%, PE 28, PE Range 170% / 104%
30th - GPN $101 EGF +11%, +12%, Dir +7%%, PE 9.1, PE Range -295% / -335%
31st - Arrow $134 EGF -25%, -5%, Dir +14%, PE 10, PE Range 92% / 104%
31st - AMAZON $188 - EGF's +12%, +25%, Dir -7%, PE 45 , PE Range -94% / -203%
31st - APPLE $233 - EGF's -11%, +8%, Dir 0%, PE 35 , PE Range +161% / +127%
BPMC has left the building.
The Coming AI IPO Bubble
ISRAELS NUCLEAR BLACKMAIL
The US Dollar is FINISHED MANTRA
Bonds SUCK!
The Housing Market 18 year / 18.6 Year Cycle
Bitcoin Seasonal Trend
BTC has been in a stealth bull market since it's August low where contrary to seasonal expectations we had an UP September and are on track for a strong October to be followed by a powerful BREAKOUT going into November and a strong December, which means we remain on target for $100k+ by the end of this year, though I suspect January will see a hangover as I don't think we will get 5 bullish months in a row.
BItcoin Breaking Out
BTC stands on the cusp of ending it's 6 month long exhausting consolidation range by breaking higher to new all time highs. The range has clearly been exhausting because so many have literally thrown in the towel and talked themselves into seeing Bitcoin failing at resistance and once more revisiting $52k and lower.
The range has worn most down, many convinced themselves to SELL ALL before the breakout convinced BTC $52k was next.... The breakout will come because fools have shorted the top of the range and so short covering will deliver the breakout rally to a new all time high.
All whilst the scared mass of crypto-holics focus on the trading range where many so called Crypto Gurus literally threw in the towel during the recent nothing burger dip from $68k down to $65k and announced they were SELLING EVERYTHING! due to convincing themselves and their tribe that bitcoin was headed back towards the bottom of it's $72k to $52k trading range.
https://youtu.be/pC9XoB-5oYc?si=riMkaNXim6pJHkCn&t=413
What better sign for an imminent breakout then when fools SELL ALL of their crypto just before it happens! That's what the market does, it wears folk down, why I often write one of the key requirements for successful investing is to have focus and a strong stomach else you will just be like a reed blowing in the wind that gets kicked out of your positions just BEFORE the big moves happen!
As for the crypto guru, I can't tell if he is playing with real money or paper money but he is an over trading FOOL who complicates what should be fairly straight forward, i.e. buy the dips and trim a little at resistance in advance of an eventual breakout higher. Anyway I am glad I identified MSTR as a good bitcoin proxy that one can hold in a tax free wrapper that I first started buying at $30 ($300) as stated in the comments at the time during mid last year, that has outdone all expectations, the alternative to which is Coinbase which given the depth of it's deep draw down to $30 has also done pretty well to trade as high as $280 that will likely at least x2 off it's current price of $210.
Bitcoin Big Picture
A quick reminder of the Bitcoin bull market big picture trend forecast -
Bitcoin Trend forecast - Last Chance to Get on Board the Bitcoin Crypto Gravy Train - Choo Choo!
So here's my Bitcoin gift (trend forecast) that on the current price of $27k, Bitcoin will at least near X4 to $98k and likely a lot more than that, given that there will soon be a flood of Bitcoin ETF's hovering up limited supply of the NSA's, I mean Satoshi Nakamoto's crypto baby.
$120k is what I am aiming for with $100k an important way point on the way.
The current chart resolves in a messy Elliott wave pattern which is not so surprising given that we have been in a messy trading range, and the uptrend following the breakout will likely be just as messy and confusing to most but the underlying picture remains for a bull market to at least target $90k+ and given that bitcoin tends to overshoot then this still suggests bitcoin will trade to above $100k during early 2025, which is pretty much in line with the above graph of where bitcoin should be by early 2025 i.e. above $100k.
(Charts courtesy of stockcharts.com)
MSTR $272 �� ����️������������ ������
Holding MSTR is like playing in a high stakes poker game.... To trim or not to trim if so by how much>? Will it dip? if so by how much? it's not as though it's obeying the laws of crypto physics i.e. tracking the bitcoin trend.
MSTR has literally taken off like a rocket following it's post new all time high of $229 dip down to $186 that resolved in a target of $275 ($229 + $46 range), hence my messages that I aimed to sell about 30% of what I held at the time by $250 with most of the rest to be trimmed on route to my secondary target of $300. MSTR has truly gone nuts to the upside by not waiting for Bitcoin to breakout i.e. my primary target of $250 roughly equates to a Bitcoin price of $95k, and given that Bitcorn was trading at $69k at that time then that was a lot of future bitcoin FOMO being discounted in the present.as MSTR looks set to claw its way to over $300 which would equate to a bitcorn price of about $114k as per my Cryptos spreadsheet.
Though of course if BTC goes nuts to $200k then MSTR $500 is doable, in the meantime my plan is to continue trimming with limit orders stacked to sell all the way to $332 that will probably take my position down to about 0.5% of portfolio from a peak of about 3% and current at 1.1%, very satisfying to trim the last of my holding on IBKR in the overnight session at $272 given that bitcorn has yet to break higher!.
MSTR Dream For Some WIll be a Nightmare for Most!
MSTR $250 equates to about BTC $95k, as I've been warning all year that folk are going to set themselves up for huge losses in MSTR when they for instance FOMO in near $300, where even if BTC goes up MSTR will probably fall. Even now at $250+ I am getting comments if it's okay to buy MSTR at these elevated over valued prices.
MSTR has blasted past my primary target of $250 all whilst Bitcoin has done NOTHING! Still stuck in it's trading range pending a breakout higher. I trimmed 25% of my MSTR holding in the run up to $250, and at least another 15% since. MSTR is a trap because it is prompting folk to interpret the valuation of MSTR in terms of BTC $70k when the actual price MSTR is discounting right now is about $100k, just as I warned would happen, MSTR will pump hard to eye watering levels that one could only imagine trading to at the start of the year when I and many patrons where buying big at UNDER $50!
Folk don't realise just how much of a pipe dream the likes of MSTR $250 was at the start of the year when MSTR was trading at under $50! It's not easy to put $185 as a target when MSTR is trading at just $48! But that target was achieved within a couple of months that gave way to the wide range of $200 to $100 and the next targets of $250 and $300. When one pauses to think one realises just how nuts it is for MSTR to X5 to $250 and soon likely X6 to $300, so I will definitely continue to trim hard and so what if it keeps FOMO-ing to something daft like $500 for a x10 which was not even on my radar at the start of the year i.e. extreme FOMO to $300 was possible but only now is $500 coming into the view for which I will leave a sliver of current exposure on the poker table to capitalise upon due to the risk of it going up in smoke.
Looking back it will be easy for folk to say I sold too early at say $290, I should have held my MSTR for the $483 final blow off top! Yeah well you will have done well to have ridden MSTR all the way from $48 to $290 and even if you sold all at $200, you still made at least 3X on what you bought which takes most an investing lifetime to achieve in the likes of an S&P ETF!
Well done to all those who managed to stay invested to some degree all the way to $250+, a probable x5 for many off of the sub $50 big buying range of January. Beyond $250 is pure FOMO mania unless Bitcorn soon plays catchup to trade to $100k then what goes up could soon come crashing down!
AI Stocks Portfolio Earnings Season
Here's a close look at 6 more stocks set to report this week,
Spreadsheet link - https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1CFfTkXm6Kpgp5YyJZ0H_0Bv4uv-xzq68i2cLvMFAvDg/edit?usp=sharing
See previous article for Google, AMD and META analysis, conclusions as below -
29th - Google $166 - EGF +7%, +17%, Dir -8%, PE 23.9, PE Range 60% / 24%.
The stock price is trading back into it's stairway to heaven channel and thus presents an opportunity to accumulate where earnings volatility may deliver another brief dip to below $160, but the stock is cheap so I would not get greedy chasing a few dollars and miss the big picture trend.
29th - AMD $154 - EGF's +15%, +54%, Dir +19%, PE 55, PE Range 95% / 51%
Bottom line AMD is in a trading range of about $190 to $130 pending a resumption of it's bull run to new all time highs during 2025
30th - META $582 - EGF +5%, +16%, Dir -1%. PE 29.7, PE Range 124% / 95%
I have continued to trim META during it's rally to $600 to now stand at just 17% invested though it still is a sizeable position at 3.8% of my portfolio, so I am more than ready to buy any dip, $540 to $500 looks doable on a weak earnings report as being flagged by the EGF's.
30th - Microsoft $427 - EGF's +2%, +19%, Dir +1%, PE 36.2, PE Range 89% / 38%
I often get asked why I only hold a small amount of X or Y stock, well as Microsoft illustrates its because it has yet to give an opportunity to accumulate and we can see the consequences of chronic over valuation in it's lack lustier performance, MSFT is only up 13.9% YTD vs the S&P up 22% , i.e. during late 2022 why buy Microsoft for $250 when one can get META for $100. Microsoft remains expensive today in relative terms i.e. why buy Microsoft when one can buy Google, even Nvidia is looking better value buy than Microsoft. This chronic over valuation has resulted in under performance when compared to what the other AI stocks have done this year. On the plus side the reason why so many hold Microsoft is because it is a SAFE LOW VOLALITY STOCK, most folk don't like wide ranges that I tend to seek out to capitalise upon hence why my position has stayed at a near constant 12% all year.
The EGF's point to a small earnings beat as earnings continue to play catchup to the stock price so Microsoft will eventually resume it's trend to a new all time high, it's just that there are better opportunities out there then the 10% to 15% Microsoft is offering. Microsoft is basically an invest and forget stock.
The stock is off it's $466 high, trading down to support at $386 early August since which has been in a weak up trend where I am seeking to pick up a small amount at $400, though $370 has been my main accumulation target all year which has failed to materialise and hence I have not added any MSFT all year. The buying range of $396 to $366 acknowledges the fact that MSFT does not tend to give much of any buying opps i.e. $396 would be -15% off it's ATH, a case of better something rather than nothing, failing that it is not worth chasing after as evidenced by the fact it has failed to even keep pace with the S&P.
30th - KLAC $674 - EGF's +15%, +30%, Dir +14%, PE 28, PE Range 170% / 104%
KLAC is s another one of those good stocks that rarely gives deep buying opps even off overbought states, instead tends to unwind overbought states via earnings growth. The near term EGF is strong at +15% vs the PE range of 170% shows the battle that is taking place on the stock chart between strong earnings growth and over valuation which has delivered a buying opp on the dip to the recent low of $654 vs $900 high hence I have been accumulating during the correction. EGFS are very strong as is direction of travel and the very high PE range is justified due to high earnings growth and very strong buyback's, hence why the PE range drops rapidly to 104% in a years time.
A probable earnings beat vs high PE range could result in a volatilise earnings day i.e. an initial spike lower that I will be seeking to capitalise upon all the way to sub $600 should it transpire, but the dip will prove temporary i.e. eventually KLAC will trade to a new all time high over $900 so one should not fixate too much on trying to buy a dip below $600 as adding at $673 is a lot better than looking in the rear view mirror in some months time with Klac over $900.
The MACD is at an extreme low which suggests KLAC could see a rapid rally to over $800, so any spike lower on earnings to below $600 could prove very short lived so one needs to have placed ones limit orders in after hour accounts well before the event. My limits range down to a big buy at $502 the chances of getting filled are very low but you never know!
30th - GPN $101 EGF +11%, +12%, Dir +7%%, PE 9.1, PE Range -295% / -335%
GPN, good metrics but so far has failed to budge far from it's bear market floor. EGF's suggest an earning beat, GPN has under performed the S&P all year towards the bottom of it's absolute and relative range for the fifth time in 2 years, stuck in a range of between $135 and $94 which whilst it has delivered opps to trim and rebuy, nevertheless has not resulted in the bull market that the metrics suggest should transpire that thus remains pending, just as Qualcom's bull market remained pending for a whole year until it took of like a rocket. Buying the dip has once more got me to an over exposed 187% invested so I am eager to start trimming once more on GPN's next run to over $125 with an eye on $135+ until GPN experiences it's own QCOM moment.
(Charts courtesy of stockcharts.com)
Bottom line is that GPN remains stuck in a trading range pending a breakout higher, where the run to $140 February 2024 had me reduce my exposure from about 190% invested down to 110% which on the subsequent series of downswings is back at 187%, so I will definitely seek to trim near half of my holding once more on the next run to $135. Buying range is $97 to $90 so not far from where the stock currently trades.
31st - Arrow $134 EGF -25%, -5%, Dir +14%, PE 10, PE Range 92% / 104%
Bad EGF's are warning of an earnings miss so likely to take a dump, luckily we have known bad earnings have been coming for some time (EGF's) in advance of which the market gave us a recent rally to $138 to trim into that leaves me at 53% invested. On the plus side ARW is a range trader with the narrow range of buy $118 sell $134, and a wider range of buy $110, sell $142. Currently trending weakly higher towards $140+ Another plus is the degree to which Arrow buys back its own stock. Buying range is $118 to $105, though should it dip I will start adding at $122 as there is strong support under $120 with a floor at around $117.
(Charts courtesy of stockcharts.com)
Bottom line Arrow is a good range trader that will eventually break higher, earnings may deliver an opp to accumulate down to about $119 but the risks are to the upside.
31st - AMAZON $188 - EGF's +12%, +25%, Dir -7%, PE 45 , PE Range -94% / -203%
Amazon had a strong bull run into it's August $201 peak since which entered the correction window that saw a deep draw down to $151 early August, that was your chance got get Amazon cheap, of course I like most was focused elsewhere and so missed that opp, since which Amazon has been in a strong trend higher all the way to this weeks earnings. The EGF's suggest ab earnings beat and the PE range states in historic terms Amazon is cheap but not in absolute terms i.e. I would rather add to any of the primaries then Amazon, still if the opp presents itself I will accumulate some more Amazon.
Buying range has stayed constant for most of the year at $158 to $155 so folk did get an opp to add to Amazon so can't ask after the fact when will amazon fall into it's buying range as it did, and investing is a game of capitalising on opportunities as they present themselves, not when one wants the opportunity to happen hence have limit orders already in place. In terms of dip potential we are still in the correction window so earnings volatility could trigger a drop to first $180 and then $170, beyond which would be a case of getting lucky, so I will seek to add some at $181 and $170.
Bottom line is that Amazon has strong metrics that are improving over time and thus to see the likes of sub $170 will be a case of getting lucky as eventually Amazon targets a new bull market high beyond $200.
31st - APPLE $233 - EGF's -11%, +8%, Dir 0%, PE 35 , PE Range +161% / +127%
The AI stock that I don't have much interest in that I will only seek to accumulate on a deep draw down to under $180. It's not just Apple's products that are very expensive so is the stock price, Apple lacks growth, the only reason Apple has gone up is due to it's large buyback's only rivaled by KLAC though without KLAC's growth rate.
(Charts courtesy of stockcharts.com)
The stock is converging towards a decision point where bull market FOMO mania will likely see it break higher given then Apple and the S&P are joined at the hip so given that the S&P is targeting new all time highs all the way to 6000+ this year then that means so will Apple set new highs. But Apple is not a stock for me, not at $200 let alone $233.
BPMC has left the building.
A high risk pharma range trader pending a breakout higher has exited the high risk portfolio, I sold out of it months ago north of $100 pending a return to $50 in attempts to rinse and repeat the range but now all buy orders have been cancelled.
Why?
Because I am doing the opposite of what most people are doing, reducing exposure and selling out of the loss making gamble stocks just as most are seeking out ever higher risk plays in attempts to replicate what the AI stocks have done that they largely ignored for the past 2 years, remember the bull market has an expiry date!
So as I have voiced several times this year I am seeking to reduce the size of my higher risk public and legacy portfolios as opportunities present themselves, selling out of as many of the gamble stocks as possible and reduce exposure to over extended positions that litter the high risk portfolio of which DOCU is an example of what I intend to do that now sits at 57% invested and similarly seek to reduce the size of the medium risk portfolio all whilst most investors drunk on FOMO will YOLO into garbage stocks usually after they have collapsed in value thinking that they are now a much better buy.
So BPMC sets the ball rolling, I have my eye on reducing exposure to ALL of the High risk stocks as opportunities present themselves so by the time the bull market ends I can say I did my best to get the JOB DONE! And no this does not mean I will do the same for Primary and Secondary AI tech stocks that ride the AI Mega-trend which means draw downs are TEMPORARY, so just focused on the higher risk stocks as we race towards the climax of this bull market.
The Coming AI IPO Bubble
Your smoking gun for why stocks topped during 2021
Whilst IPO's for 2024 are higher than 2023 we are not at the bubble mania stage yet, but it's coming!
This is what 2021's IPO mania looked like.
Your early warning signal will be a sharp drop off in monthly IPO's as there was in April 2021.
Whilst its early days but trend to date is inline with my big picture for a AI IPO bubble mania blow off top during 2026.
12th June 2020 - Machine Intelligence Quantum AI Stocks Mega-Trend Forecast 2020 to 2035!
Therefore the following graph illustrates my road map forecast conclusion of how I expect the AI mega-trend to play out over the next 15 years and why I will continue the mantra of buy the dips and panics all the way towards liquidating holdings during the next mania peak when valuations go out the window and when I will likely heavily short these same stocks all the way down towards the buying opportunity of the 2030's.
The bottom line is this - NEVER INVEST IN AN IPO!
ISRAELS NUCLEAR BLACKMAIL
Nuclear Blackmail is one of the primary reasons why the US Defends the Fourth Reich by All Means Necessary,
So it's not just the power of the israel lobby that has cuck'd the United States to lay down the lives of US soldiers in the defence of the zionist regime, It is also out of FEAR of what the Fourth Reich would do if the US was not committed to come to the defence of Israel which is to drag the United States into a nuclear war.
A nuclear armed stated CANNOT LOSE A WAR! And not even come close to doing so against NON NUCLEAR states.
Israel with it's arsenal of 300 nukes holds the US to ransom in that if the US fails to come to the unlimited defence of Israel, Israel would use Nuclear weapons triggering a cascade of escalations that culminates in a short lived nuclear world war three. And that in a nutshell is why the US has no choice but to support Israel in all of it's genocidal endeavours due to World Ending consequences of not doing so.
IRAN getting nukes not only immediately triggers Saudi Arabia getting nukes via Pakistan, and probably Turkey too, but increases the chances that the Fourth Reich opts to use Nuclear Weapons against Iran on a FIRST strike basis, Israel's so called Samson Option.
During the 1973 war the THEN Fourth Reich Fuhrer had authorised use of nukes targeting major regional cities with 13 missiles deployed to aircraft on the airfield ready to go if the US failed to comply to the demands of the Fourth Reich in terms of unlimited military support that brought the world to the brink of nuclear war prompting the US to go to Defcon 3 as Kissinger prepared to sacrifice the United States for Israel . One of the reasons why the US does the Fourth Reich's bidding is nuclear blackmail, if you don't do what veee tell you to do then vee vill use zee nuclear bombs as per doctrine.
Iran getting nukes increases the probability of the Fourth Reich using nukes FIRST! The Fourth Reich is itching to use nukes hence the tail that wags the dog. NUCLEAR BLACKMAIL is the name of the game! The US has no choice but the defend the Fourth Reich by all means necessary because the zionist nut jobs are prepared to trigger a nuclear WW3. In fact the deeper one digs the more one see's how eager they are bring about the end of the world so as to fulfil prophecy aided by rapture seeking nut job prophecies.
The world is racing towards nuclear war and so far Iran staying sub nuclear has helped stave off nuclear armageddon, so maybe one should thank the Iranians for delaying taking that final step that would exponentially increase the risks of nuclear war! Because NO ONE wins a nuclear war, there is not going to be any bloody second coming, or rapture or Messiah! As Charlton Heston once said "Goddamn you all to hell!"
The US Dollar is FINISHED MANTRA
That's all one hears, but as I often remind folk the US Dollar will be the last fiat currency standing! All other currencies will DIE before the US Dollar dies. My focus is on the USD-GBP pair as that is what effects my finances but the US Dollar is in a long-term bull market against all major currencies which is contrary to what you hear in the media.
This is why whenever I am asked about he prospects for the British Pound I iterate since the October 2022 blood bath bottom that sterling is in a cyclical bull market within a secular bear market that targets a bull run to £/$1.4 which may over shoot to £/$1.5 though that is not what I am betting on, but if it happens I would seek to capitalise on such a move by buying a lot of dollars.
Nevertheless my plan is to accumulate dollars in the run up to 1.4 where at £/$1.3 we currently stand at 75% of the to 1.4 to 1.0 range, thus at above 50% of the range one should be seeking to accumulate dollars the higher the pound goes whilst sub 1.20 (50%) one should be seeking to accumulate sterling the lower it goes.
The goal here is not to use these dollars over the next few months as sterling rises, but for when we are well into the next bear market and sterling is trading sub $1.20, probably all the way down to parity once more, where say buying today at 1.30 will yield 30% MORE buying power than at the time exchanging sterling for dollars to buy US stocks, so it does not matter if in the meantime sterling goes to 1.40 or even spikes to 1,50 as one is playing the long game, of course sterling spiking to 1.50 would be a great opportunity to accumulate dollars, hence one is scaling into dollars as the pound goes higher, thus as the bull market continues ones percentage cash should go up as one trims over valued stocks where that cash should be increasingly parked in dollars with a view to buying stocks during the next bear market, hence why I have engaged in testing the bond market in determine where best to stash ones dollars.
Bonds SUCK!
That is the conclusion of my experiment over the past year or so by putting just over 1% of my portfolio into a mix of US and UK bond funds. BONDS SUCK! The plan for bonds is to ride out the next bear market and have funds to capitalise upon for when buying the dips.
Bonds are not helped by rampant money printing and dollar weakness.
So the easiest thing to do is to just hold US Dollars which unfortunately is not possible within ISA's and even most SIPPs,
What do I seek ?
I want to hold US Dollars, I want to earn some interest.
The problem with holding US bonds in pursuit of these goals is the effect of INTEREST RATES on the value of the bonds as all those who got fooled into holding bonds during 2022 found out as they got wiped out by rising interest rates!
What's worse is what the Fed does to the Fed funds rate is largely irrelevant as the trend in current bond prices illustrates, where the Fed is cutting but the bond yields are spiking due to the INFLATION MEGA-TREND, where my expectations are for waves of inflation for the whole of this decade as a consequence of rampant money printing..
So longer duration bonds are too risky which means one needs to gravitate towards the short-end i.e less than 1 year, hence I am in the process of investigating short end bond ETFS that I will cover in future articles.
The Housing Market 18 year / 18.6 Year Cycle
Every now and then I get a comment if I am aware of this or that person and their theory of the US 18.6 year property cycle,
understand this, all of these discoverers are FAKE! I heard of the 18 year cycle in the 1980's! note heard not discovered, read about it in books, most written by folk who were long since deceased. Probably first heard of it in Dewey's comprehensive book on cycles and then from earlier still authors, I can't remember which books or authors, but for sure it was long before the johnny come latelies with their updated copy and paste jobs from works done 50+ years earlier.
So understand this if you read something that mentions someone who is living today discovered the 18 year housing cycle then they are full poop!
The forecast mid cycle dip has been a bit of joke, a perpetual moving target for when the dip happens, if it ever happens as this forecast at the start of 2020 illustrates.
The dip was supposed to happen in 2020, never happened so moved it along to 2022 and it still never happened so what did the proponents do, delete the word dip and replaced it with slowdown which is the current state of play.
What about all those sat in cash since early 2020 waiting for the dip?
Seven years from the 2012 low takes us to the 2019 mid cycle top! Instead of dipping US house prices took off like a rocket. Okay no dip in 2020 but wait for the second dip in 2022! That's AFTER house prices have gone up by 50%! It's garbage! All you needed to do is what I suggested folk do back in in early 2020 which was that if you are thinking about buying a house then do it sooner rather than later because there was a huge amount of inflation in the pipeline, instead this 18 year cycle garbage convinced many folk to wait for the dip! IT IS TOTAL GARBAGE!
What actually matters is bubble FOMOd Mania, if we get that then yes there will be a top followed by a bear market but if we don't then the housing market will give the middle finger to 18.6 year cycle and continue marching higher all the way until there is a bubble mania top, all whilst folk stay sat on the sidelines waiting for the collapse to happen and if it doesn't the cycle proponents will come out with some BS excuse just as they did when the mid cycle dip failed i.e. re label the collapse as another slowdown.
Most folk should not concern themselves with the risk of falling house prices as their number 1 objective should be to buy a house to live in. Fools such as whatever his name is convinced many NOT to buy a house in early 2020 because the market was supposed to dip, at the time I stated that a lot of inflation was incoming due to pandemic spending so folk need to buy a house sooner rather than later, this is the problem with such 18 year cycles, they are blind to what is obvious at the time, and thus instead of realising they stick to their guns and give the opposite advice to what folk should do. Which is why to stop falling into such traps I often state that each tool on it's own is a coin flip, you have to follow the money and where it's going, it's no good them saying after the fact some years later that oh the dip did not happen because of money printing, it's too bloody late! the damage has been done, money printing ensures that housing will keep snaking higher, yes there will be FOMOd driven tops and thus bear markets BUT the cycle will get you out before or after the top and then in before or after the bottom so is pretty much useless.
Your trimming the MSTR rip and buying the dips in target stocks analyst.
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And access to my exclusive to patron's only content such as the How to Really Get Rich series.
Change the Way You THINK! How to Really Get RICH Guide 2023
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Here's what you get access to for just $7 per month -
※ Patrons Get FIRST access to all of my In-depth analysis and high probability Trend Forecasts, usually 2 full months before the rest of the world. Notified by Patreon by email as well as posted on this page and I will also send a short message in case the extensive email does not make it to your inbox.
※Access to my carefully constructed and maintained AI Tech Stocks Portfolio that is updated on an ongoing basis, that includes on going commentary and a comprehensive spreadsheet that features unique innovations such as the remarkably useful EGF's.
※A concise to the point Investing Guide that explains my key strategies and rules
※ Regular content on How to Trade & Invest incorporated into most articles so as to keep patrons eyes on the big picture and net get too sucked into the noise of price swings.
※ Access to my comprehensive How to Really Get Rich series of articles, clear concise steps that I will seek to update annually and may also eventually form a Patrons only ebook.
※ Access to conclusions from my ongoing market studies from a total of over 200 conducted studies over the decades. updated whenever the market poses a question to be answered. Also enjoy the fruits of R&D into machine learning such as the CI18 Crash indicator that correctly called both the pandemic crash (Feb 2020) and the 2022 bear market (Dec 2021) well before the fact.
※Join our community where I reply to comments and engage with patrons in discussions.
※ I will also keep my Patrons informed of what I am currently working on each month.
※ Influence over my analysis schedule.
My objective is to provide on average 2 pieces of in-depth analysis per month and regular interim pieces of analysis as market briefs. So over a 12 month period expect to receive at least 24 pieces of in-depth analysis. Though my focus is on providing quality over quantity as you can see from the extent and depth of my analysis which I deem necessary so as to arrive at that which is the most probable market outcome.
So for immediate first access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $7 per month, lock it in now at $7 before next rises to $10 per month for new sign-ups. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.
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Your analyst.
By Nadeem Walayat
Copyright © 2005-2024 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.
Nadeem Walayat has over 30 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.
Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk
Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.
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© 2005-2022 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.
