Stocks, Bitcoin and Crypto Markets Get High on Donald Trump Pump
Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2025 Feb 10, 2025 - 09:48 PM GMTBy: Nadeem_Walayat
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Most Recent Analysis -
President Chaos Delivering Tariffs Buying Opps - Earnings GOOG, AMD, QCOM, RBLX, AMZN
Donald Trump election win sends bitcoin, crypto and stock markets into a euphoric high on prospects for the forthcoming money printing binge. We may all be getting high on the pump right now but you all know it's not going to end well for most, those who FOMO into the highs, no matter how much we try game this, it's going to be a tough balancing act between how much we manage to take off the casino tables before the music stops and the SHTF!
Most missed the Trump win due to MSM propaganda and echo chambers, of course after the fact it was obvious to everyone that Trump would win, though the trick is to say and act on it BEFORE the event not a week AFTER it happens! One can't place bets on Trump to win AFTER it's happened!
Donald Pump winning has been my consistent view ALL YEAR, where I iterated why Kamala Harris taking over from lost all of his marbles Biden was not going to make any difference to the election outcome in fact regardless of the polls that consistently gave Harris a lead the exact opposite would turn out to be true, the election result was not even going to be close, a landslide win for Trump was incoming that would pump the markets, send crypto assets and stocks including Tesla to the moon so that is where the big bets should be placed.
3rd Nov -
According to MSM and pundits such as Leechman Karmal Harris has won!
According to DeemGPT (Me) it's not even going to be close, Donald Pump will win by a landslide (electoral college).
Remember MSM tells you to sell stocks at bear market bottoms and buy stocks at bull market tops, the exact opposite of DeemGPT. Anyway not long to go.....
Why was the landslide obvious to me since Harris took over ?
It's as simple as that! The Democrats infected with the woke virus picked the worst candidate that they could have chosen and hence even a senile old fool would win, had they picked a white man with an ounce of charisma then the Dems would have sood a good chance of winning!
Democrats were surprised that even Arab americans (those that voted) went for Trump instead of for HOLOCAUST HARRIS, GENOCIDE JOE & BUTCHER BLINKEN! US complicity in Israel's crimes played a significant part in ending Democrat rule, does not matter that Trump will likely be worse in terms of support for the messianic suicidal regime, it was a case of what was staring them in the face, Democrats speak with forked tongue and all that.... Though history suggests they will get well rewarded $'s for their blind loyalty to the Fourth Reich so not going to end up in the Hague anytime soon.
Litchman and his 100% correct 13 keys be DAMNED! The fool is now busy running around making excuses for why his 100% correct system got it BADLY wrong as I said he would do in my pre-election video.
The crypto markets are still pumping as i write, SOLANA busting above $240 achieving my target of a year ago! That's more than a 10X for all those who followed the analysis in my Last Chance to Board the Crypto Gravy Trains article of October 2023- Last Chance to Get on Board the Bitcoin Crypto Gravy Train - Choo Choo!
Choo! Choo!
Whilst Bitcorn hit $93k! Barley 2 months ago many Patrons were worried, some were even in a state of total despair on the drop below $60kl! So I had to hold hands so folk stayed the course, else make the mistake of exiting BEFORE the pump!
Market Brief - 3rd September
BTC $59k - My view has remained consistent since the March top that following this correction BTC targets a trend to first $88k and then 100k+ probably achieved before the end of this year where the longer this correction goes on the more powerful should be eventual upside breakout, this correction is now 5 months old so at most there could be 1 more month to go before it's blast off time by which time many will have exited crypto. especially those who use leverage and then will scramble to buy back in during the FOMO breakout or worse wait for the dip that never comes.
And not panic sell like many clowns did just BEFORE the BREAKOUT such as this fool who sold EVERYTHING on fears Bitcoin would soon drop down to $52k again -
https://youtu.be/pC9XoB-5oYc?si=riMkaNXim6pJHkCn&t=413
We need over trading fools like this to be on the wrong side of breakouts to drive the big green candles all the way to $100k as they forever wait for the dip to buy. I tortured myself by taking a look at the clowns latest video and guess what he is still all in cash waiting for bitcoin to drop, now he's aiming to buy at $84k instead of $52k!
Some patrons don't like hearing about crypto's but the whole point of what I do is to identify high probability trends to capitalise on be they in AI tech stocks or this years crypto bull market. Many patrons who did get with the programme are literally experiencing life changing profits from crypto's for the SECOND time this year, all for the cost of a cheap martini as folk turn crypto play money into real money, choo! choo!
And it's not just in crypto assets, Tesla stock has soared to $350 and has a destiny with $400 before the end of this year! Where all year I have iterated in response to patron fears during draw downs that all folk needed to know was first we will see $300 and then $400 on route to $500+ Tesla is a no brainier! Where as I often comment I fear RISING prices because no matter how much one holds one will wish one had bought more once it takes off! Six months ago when Tesla was trading at $170 I was 130% invested, now after a 2X I am down to 67% invested with more Tesla gravy train profits incoming!
CONTENTS
America's Angry Grandpa President
Trump War on Immigration WAR!
Trump Tariff Economic War
DONALD DEBT PUMP!
Trump Stock Market Road Map 2025
Why Apple Stock Refuses to Drop!
Nvidia Stock on a Stairway to Heaven Counting Down to Earnings
AI Stocks Portfolio Current State
Current Stocks Portfolio Buying Opps
Crypto FOMO Mania
Bitcoin Seasonal Trend
BItcoin Bull Market Target
Bitcoin Mind Game $98k to $104k Topping Zone
Bitcoin Bull Market Targets Redux
ALT COINS SEASON
SOLANA Bull Market Targets
Bitcoin & Crypto Corrections
MSTR Rocket Will Eventually Get Sucked Into the Crypto Black Hole
Exit Strategy - Leaving the Crypto Casino with Your Profits
The CURE for Diabetes!
America's Angry Grandpa President
Here's what I concluded a Trump Presidency would mean at the start of the year -
16th Jan 2024 - Stock Market Election Year Five Nights at Freddy's
Despite what the polls may state it is very possible that a. Trump wins the Republican nomination and b. That he wins the next Election, and then watch what the ANGRY Grandpa does!
You can say goodbye to Ukraine, it's going to be split into two regardless of all of the MSM propaganda that Russia is losing. And say hello to the rise of totalitarian states to capitalise on the chaos that a Trump Presidency would unleash around the world and in America. AI will win the 2024 US election and sow chaos across America for the next 4 years.
So regardless of ones point of view on the war UKRAINE is screwed! A lot fewer toys for the boys to play with over the sky of Ukraine. That's what President Trump is seeking to achieve as guided towards by the men in grey suits.
Why?
a. Because Ukraine cannot win the war.
b. Trump likes strong men, so regardless of the fact that China and North Korea and even Iran are enemy states, nevertheless they are led by strong men thus Trump favours disengagement vs confrontation which is actually a good thing as it only results in bringing Americas enemies closer together against a common foe.
c. The real enemy is CHINA! Thus the US support for Israel and Ukraine is NOT in the best interests of the US Empire, when instead the US should be concentrating it's military towards deterring China by means of deploying over whelming force in that region, so regardless of what Trump says in public his natural instincts would be to disengage America from conflict zones abroad..
Why would Putin agree to a Trump peace deal? Because the Angry Grandpa would threaten to escalate the conflict! Give Ukraine 2X the arms it's getting today.
It's a dumb strategy for the US to diminish its military capability by deploying it's military arsenal to Ukraine and the Fourth Reich.
So Ukraine is screwed!
Ukraine will be forced to give up occupied lands, sign an agreement of neutrality and likely see a constriction of a DMZ north Korea style. Ukraine has no choice but to comply as it is US tax dollars and weapons that are allowing Ukraine to stave off a Russian victory.
Whilst Israel is going to commit genocide anyway with or without US support.
Whilst the Biden regimes puppet masters seek to escalate war on Russia by authorising use of long range missiles deep into Russian territory. Where the sensible thing for Putin to do would be to wait for a couple of months for Trump to take over.
Of course Biden is not even aware of what time of day it is!
Meanwhile the WW3 clock keeps counting down .....
Trump War on Immigration WAR!
"They are eating the cats, they are eating the dogs"
Trump looks set to save America's pets by cracking down hard on immigration which risks killing the goose that lays the golden egg. I mean both TESLA the man and later Tesla the company exist because two immigrants came to America without a penny their pockets!
The worlds best and brightest come to America and you just don't know who will be the next Tesla! Maybe one of those Mexicans on the southern border.
Yes it is a balancing act, too much immigration and you send inflation soaring through the roof, to little immigration and you have the demographic time bomb exploding resulting in economic stagnation.
The problem with US Politics is there is no middle ground, instead there are extremes of too much immigration vs that of to little that will result in economic stagnation, business's need skilled workers!
Where does the US stand?
Immigration has saved America's butt as unlike China and Japan and many european nations, (especially eastern europe) it is not dieing, as these nations are experiencing net migration,and thus have fallen below the replacement rate with their respective demographic time bombs going off.
Immigration was one of the US elections big hot potato given the accelerating trend following the slump into October 2022 that now has the foreign born population at a record high of near 52 million.
However, what does the total immigrants chart closely resemble?
(Charts courtesy of stockcharts.com)
If the Joker in the White House actually starts to deliver on his election rhetoric then you can say bye bye to the stocks bull market which is exactly what I expect to happen i.e. President Trump was destined to win the 2024 election so that he can policy by policy break the back of this now approaching 16 year stocks bull market and usher in the NEXT MAJOR BEAR MARKET RECESSION. It is DESTINED to happen!
Any more fake tan and Trump will get himself deported!
Trump Tariff Economic War
Trumps economic master plan centres on a 60% tariff levied on chinese imports and 10% on everyone else! The impact of which will be to increase the cost of goods and services to the customer. on the plus side it will create some jobs in the US as the exporter will seek to assemble goods within the US so as to avoid the tariffs.
Another negative of tariffs is that the exporting nation will also put tit for tat tariffs on US goods and hey presto we have a 1930's style trade war underway with many more jobs lost then gained.
The net effect of Tariffs is to increase the cost of doing business which will get passed onto the consumer and thus high consumer price inflation coupled with negative impact on the business sector due to making business more difficult.
So tariffs will result in lower economic growth, and higher inflation. Though it all depends on how far Trump travels down the tariffs road. A blanket 60% tariff on chinese goods is an act of economic warfare and thus will act to accelerate the time line towards War with China whilst also hitting allies. All of which is necessary to fulfill the Trump Prophecy of bringing about a deep recession bloody bear markets and eventually a high probability of outright military conflict with China.
DONALD DEBT PUMP!
US national debt is increasing at the rate of $1 trillion every 100 days despite all of the smoke and mirrors propaganda from Trumps henchman Musk the Trump Presidency will accelerate debt issuance, no net debt is going to get repaid!
Talk is cheap!
You want to know the Truth?
$36 trillion is a smoke and mirrors number, the actual size of the debt bubble is over $2 quadrillion! US national debt is an illusion, all of MSM and most folk don't even know where to start looking!
Alls I know is that Musk's primary objective is to become the worlds 1st dollar trillionaire, and he will climb over every man woman and child to achieve his primary objective all whilst the slave masses buy into the con that Musk is a good guy, no the richer folk get the more evil they become because you can't become mega-rich without being a psychopath!
If the DOGE master was true then he should start by cutting the billions in subsidies his own companies get from the US government each year!
Smoke and Mirrors folks, smoke and mirrors! Still it helps pump DOGE coin!
Trump Stock Market Road Map 2025
What to expect for the stock market over the first year of the Trump Presidency?
We already have the road map for that, it's what happened following Trumps 2016 win!
Yes that's right analysis can be as simple and as obvious as that once its been pointed out, after all it's not suggesting anything different than what I have already stated in articles that regardless of who wins we were in for a strong bull run for 2025 that targets an S&P trend to well above 7000, targeting somewhere between S&P 7200 and 7800 which matches what happened during 2016, until Trump blows the US economy and stock market out of the water which is what Trump 2.0 is destined to do by some time during 2026.
So keep that big picture of 7200 to 7800 in mind, in fact stick it on a post it note so as not to get side tracked by wasting too much time on whether the S&P will correct to 5700 or 5600. All folk need to do is accumulate target stocks as opportunities materialise for which there are several right now in the likes of ASML and AMD,
Why Apple Stock Refuses to Drop!
Low growth Apple stock refused to give any opportunity during the recent correction window.
Apple does produce good hardware i.e. the brand new Apple M4 mini by all accounts does the job in terms of delivering desktop processing power in a truly tiny box, there is no way any PC builder no matter how skilled can achieve anything similar.
But that's not why Apple stock price won't drop! Here's why -
Apple RIPS off it's customers! The $600 base model for a 16gb, 256gb is barely useable for any serious productivity tasks where the cost jumps X2 to $1200 for an extra 16gb of memory and 256gb of storage that likely costs Apple less than $50 bucks. That's how Apple stock defy's gravity by ripping folk off! What a CON! An extra $600 for what anyone can buy for LESS than $100! You can get X2 mac minis for the same cost as the upgrades! It's like Apple is playing a big joke on its customers! And that is Apple has turned t's customers into obedient slaves who appear happy to get ripped off on necessary upgrades. The only folk who buy the base model are those who are clueless about computers, 256gb storage in 2024 is a joke! Folk need at least 1tb as a minimum and and preferably 2tb for which Apple will rip the eyeballs out of your sockets to upgrade to.
And it's worse for those in the UK! Exchange rate ? What exchange rate! Apple truly rips Brit's off by treating the fx rate as being at parity instead of 1.3, so the real price should be £769 and not £999. What a CON! Which is why I NEVER buy Apple products because I have an aversion to getting ripped off!
That being said the base system at £599 is very good value for money, just that one can't do anything useful with it not unless one goes for 32gb and 512gb SSD, and even that is pretty feeble, i.e. to get a system that matches one of my 3 year old desktops (5950x RTX 3080, 32gb, 2tb M2) would see the Mac Mini config max out at £1800, that still would not work for me. To get a MAC equivalent to my 3 year old machine I would need to go with a M2 Max, 24CPU, 60GPU, 32gb Ram, 2tb SSD at a cost of £4600, just to match a 3 year old machine that cost LESS when new! Apple is charging folk about twice the cost for the same performance as one can get from a desktop PC where the Base Mac Mini is to get folk hooked into the Apple upgrade echo system.
And then they have all of their subscription scams on top and built in obsolescence.
Apparently the M2 drive can be removed easily, but as with most things Apple it is propriety so one cannot just plug another M2 into the slot as many mistakenly online think they can, no for DIY storage upgrade one needs to replace the actual NAND chip on the Apple supplied M2, and only then can you get to upgrade storage at about 1/8th the cost of what Apple charges!
Nvidia Stock on a Stairway to Heaven Counting Down to Earnings
Numero Uno, in a class all of it's own, we got lucky this year as Nvidia gave us 2 opps to accumulate at deep discounts to it's high. As I have been voicing for several months since $120 that Nvidia looks set to x2 once more to $240 with $200 acting as a way point along the way. Everyone wants it to dip so they can add more, but unfortunately the only thing that's going to get Nvidia to dip for a third time is if there is an external panic event, or what I call nothing burgers as was the early August Yen Carry trade nothing burger dip to $90, can you imagine Nvidia dipped down to $90 and folk got wobbly legs and failed to hit the buy buttons! Yes that dip was swift with not much time for most to act on, but then we got lucky with a second dip! Unfortunately that dip petered out at $100 as obviously every one was waiting for Nvidia to revisit $90 before hitting the buy button, nevertheless I increased my exposure substantially from, about 3% invested in June to 24% invested today, eager for any further dip to add even more as we go into earnings day where bad earnings news is good news for piling into numero Uno, that's the thing that most investors don't grasp that stocks FALL on BAD NEWS! Unfortunately every time there is bad news folk get wobbly knees, "but Nadeem it's BAD, the news is BAD, should we wait for much lower prices to buy ?" My reply "what else do you think is going to make the stock price drop? Good news?"
The solution is this - DO NOT PAY ANY ATTENTION TO THE NEWS EVENTS, only focus on the price chart. You want Nvidia to drop so you can buy so if it drops then BUY! It's as simple as that! Once upon a time I did not pay any attention to EARNINGS because all I was interested in was the PRICE CHART. Yes analysing earnings ADDS an extra layer of information and insight and makes one better able to take the punches but where investing is concerned I could continue without any earnings analysis because at the end of the day I will do what I have always done which is to BUY when my target stocks take a dump, so the reason for the dump does not matter because there is ALWAYS a reason, most investors waste time chasing after reasons why stock prices move, I hear it in the comments all of the time, about this or that reason where folk have now gotten used to my auto response that the news event they are focusing on is a NOTHING BURGER!
so I remind folk that when you are investing in a stock you are placing a BET, where given time one expects most of ones bets to pay off and thus deliver upwards portfolio momentum.
Nvidia's metrics are firing on all cylinders i.e. EGF's +29%, +52%, percent of ranges 96%, 38%, the stock remains in a class of it's own which is why right now it is trading near it's all time high, so any deviation from it's high going into earnings will be us getting lucky, all one can do is place ones limit orders scaling in from say $135 down to $110 and see what gets filled once the dust settles, of course you will need to utilise a broker that allows outside of market hours orders such as IBKR and T212.
Going into earnings I have been reluctant to trim at the highs because I want to own more than my current 24% exposure, and so I am eager to buy more, so look forward to BAD NEWS or earnings volatility where I deem the actual results to be irrelevant, the only thing that matters is what the stock price does, so far it's resisted the correction under way in other tech stocks, but this is what Nvidia usually does.
(Charts courtesy of stockcharts.com)
Nvidia's trend i.e. peaks and troughs closely tracks the S&P trend, so S&P bull run into at least Mid Jan suggests Nvidia should also continue its bullish trend into at least mid January. For Nvidia we have a central channel within which I expect Nvidia to trend higher all the way to $200 and beyond where price action above puts Nvidia into an overbought state and price action below into an under valued state as occurred during August and September where the primary takeaway should be this is a rising channel which is why Nvidia should continue to see higher highs and lows, so if we get lucky we could see Nvidia spike down to $130, though more probable is a spike up to a new all time high to beyond $160.
AI Stocks Portfolio Current State
Crypto Mania has resulted in a huge increase in the percent cash on my accounts jumping from 20% a few months ago to 25% today all whilst I have been accumulating target AI stocks. Mostly courtesy of MSTR X10'ng since January! and this does not even allow for the funds I have pulled out of crypto accounts as part of my exit strategy that I cover later in this article.
So portfolio stands at 75% invested of which 8.5% are crypto assets that I aim to disinvest from during the remainder of the crypto bull market that will continue to inflate my percent cash all whilst I likely maintain or even add to AI stocks as many patrons have been doing i.e. cycling crypto profits into AI stocks such as numero Uno.
The higher crypto's go the higher the percent cash will go all whilst the percent of portfolio in crypto's stays fairly constant as a consequence of the increase in the value of the crypto assets which acts to mask the selling underway. For instance by MSTR $448 I have sold 94% of my MSTR, which now sits at 0.2% of my portfolio vs a peak holding of about 2.5% that I aim to replicate across all crypto assets over the coming months by trimming as I go long which is the best one can do without hindsight!
For instance back at MSTR $190 many patrons eyeing the rally from the $100 low to $200 wanted to bail ship, asking me if they should sell, I just iterated what I have stated all year, my primary target is $250, secondary $300 and it will probably trade to $332, beyond which there could be FOMO mania to $500. However I will have sold about 75% by $300 which is precisely what I did do and since have sold down all the way to $448 to now stand at just 6% of what I held at peak position size, which is the best one can do without hindsight. "But Nadeem you could have waited and sold all at $448 for much more profit", yeah well go back to $200 and see what most wanted to do whilst looking down the barrell of a gun that had either $300 or $100 in it's sights. I told folk what I was doing, those who followed have continued to ride the MSTR gravy train all the way to $448 and likely to $500, many got itchy feet bailed at just over $200, happy at the time with their huge profit but forever since asking me when will it drop so they can buy back in..... I would reply yes it could drop to $180, and if we get lucky we could see $160, but that's not the plan I'm following. So as I often write, have a plan and and then FOLLOW IT! because you can not buy or sell with the benefit of hindsight!
Portfolio Spreadsheet - https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1CFfTkXm6Kpgp5YyJZ0H_0Bv4uv-xzq68i2cLvMFAvDg/edit?usp=sharing
Current Stocks Portfolio Buying Opps
BEST
AMD, Qualcom, ASML, Samsung, CRUS
OKAY
Google, Microsoft, AMAT
ADDING TO ANYWAY
AVGO
OTHERS
SLB,FSLR, UKW, FCX, GPN, Tencent, Alibaba,
Crypto FOMO Mania
CRYPTO FOMO MANIA UNDERWAY sees COIN $300+ MSTR $400+, BTC targeting $98k. DOG COIN TO THE MOON! People are over thinking crypto's, has it topped, where will it top, will it 4x, all you need to focus on is GETTNG RICH! $$$$$ in ones bank account is what counts! That's what I'm doing, fruit machines going kaching across the spectrum even pieces of crap such as XRP and ADA are triggering sells. At the end of the day crypto's are a side salad, the main course is AI, so all I see crypto is as a means of making some quick big bucks, a gamble on some of these turd coins FOMO-ing to the moon, the greater fool theory at play, so never buy into any of the hype of how crypto's will change the world!
MSTR - I have been trimming as it has gone higher, my targets for some time for MSTR has been to sell 75% by $300+ so by $448 I have sold most, over 90%. Don't forget it has already 10x'd off it's January LOW! So we are well past the buying points.
MSTR is a cow to be milked, one day it's going to get slaughtered! Folk who sold at $200 when I told them I was waiting for $300+ now want to buy at $400 ��
An infinite money glitch all the way across the event horizon and into the BLACK HOLE. - MSTR can NEVER SELL a single bitcoin because as soon as the market gets any whiff of that happening it's going to CRASH HARD! And I mean like a 90% CRASH!
A patron commented earlier that all of this MSTR / COIN / crypto's big profits trimming is resulting in too much cash and he does not know what to do with it all, well that is the whole point of taking profits! The worst thing to do would be to plow those profits back into crypto's! You need to know how much hard cash you have invested because you need to reduce that during the bull market, the mistake most will make is to plow their profits back into crypto's and thus when the bubble pops they will discover that they have given all of their profits back to the market! In a perfect world one would sell all before the bubble pops, at best one can hope to have sold most.
Bitcorn - As I have been iterating since April, the longer the consolidation the greater will be the resulting breakout, thus unlike many I eye' d the looooong correction as a good thing as it increased the probability of $100k being achieved in short order, without much of any reactions against the breakout which is what we have been experiencing with those who missed the breakout now sat on the sideline praying for a dip as bitcorn relentlessly climbs higher towards $100k.
CLSK - sold a big chunk at $16.9 - crazy crypto roller coaster ride up from $8.5 bottom. Folk want certainties, there are no certainties with any stock let alone crypto's, fortune favours the brave, you place your bets and take your chances, you need to learn to take the punches! Else you'll be a scared little mouse instead of a ROARING LION!
COIN - From what I can tell is out shining everything major since the election i.e. MSTR, SOLANA, ETH, DAGB, x6 bitcoin. Just remember the SHINING was a HORROR movie! Coin has reached it's first objective of $300+ Where I am sure I stated was targeting $332, which is where it is trading right now, beyond that to $400+ is pure gravy, but it looks weak here..
DOGE bust through 30 cents straight to 42 cents thanks to Musk the Doge Father - Crypto Folk expecting THE tops in October 2025, the crypto tops going to come much earlier than that, my best guess a year ago was June 2025, now I suspect a little earlier say April 2025. A lot of folk are going to get slaughtered, forget about THE TOPs! All folk need to do is take their X3 to X10 profits as they go along...
Recently I went to a wedding and met a nephew I've not seen for a good 10 years, he was into crypto so I chatted, he was on about shit coins like Ton, I told him go for DOGE trading at 10 cents at the time as it could go to 40 cents. he told me it was poop, I agreed yes it is total poop but it's got eyeballs, it's got MUSK, all he needs to do is tweet about it and it will double, triple and more..... the rest is history.... I wonder if he listened, but that's the thing about most folk, they talk but don't act, only after the event they ask if it will drop again so they can buy.
Bitcoin Seasonal Trend
Bitcoin is trending in line with the seasonal expectation of a strong October giving way to a strong November to again be followed by a strong December which means it's full steam ahead for $100k+ to be achieved this year which has been my mantra all year that folk with weak stomachs only need to know is that BTC is heading for $100k+ this year.
BItcoin Bull Market Target
So what's the target for the bull market how far and for how long could this bull market run?
Folk have had the answer to that for over a year since October 2023 - Last Chance to Get on Board the Bitcoin Crypto Gravy Train - Choo Choo!
So here's my Bitcoin gift (trend forecast) that on the current price of $27k, Bitcoin will at least near X4 to $98k and likely a lot more than that, given that there will soon be a flood of Bitcoin ETF's hovering up limited supply of the NSA's, I mean Satoshi Nakamoto's crypto baby.
That's right as far as I can tell we remain on target towards achieving my primary target of $134k by June 2025 as illustrated by my crypto spread sheet.
Of course I have not been sat waiting for $134k before hitting the sell buttons, in fact I have already sold 1/3rd of my bitcoin on the rally to $93k as I will cover later in my exit strategy.
And my October 2023 article was not even the firing of the starting gun where this bull markets expectations are concerned for that we go right back to the beginning of this bull market, right back to the November 2022 bear market bottom when Bitcoin was trading at $16k and one of my fave crypto picks of this bull market SOLANA was trading at just $9 vs $240 today!
Dec 2022 - S&P500, Gold, Silver and Crypto's Trend Forecasts 2023
My existing trend forecast for the Bitcoin price as of 28th November is target a trend to $100k during 2024. So every time I look at the bitcoin price I do the mental math of dividing 100k by current price $17k = 5.9.
So nothing has changed, Bitcoin remains on target to achieve $134k by June 2025 as of October 2023 and $100k by end of 2024 as of November 2022. So you can well understand why I have stubbornly stayed the course for the duration of this bull market because to date bitcoin has done pretty much what I expected it to do, where the only distraction from was the fact that crypto's are a mere side salad to the AI mega-trend stocks portfolio which has been my primary focus. Who know's if AI had not been my primary focus then I would have gone all in on crypto instead i.e. 70% invested instead of about 4% of hard cash at peak exposure.
Bitcoin Mind Game $98k to $104k Topping Zone
Bitcoin ultimate mind game - Current swing tops out at $98k...... Just as most become convinced that $100k+ is imminent.
This isn't something new but the tail I pinned on the bitcoin donkey over a year ago! I.e. what is most probable as per the above bitcoin forecast chart.
Yes it could top at $98k, it's feasible, I will continue to follow my plan as laid out in my crypto strategy as whilst feasible It's now not the most probable outcome i.e. most probable is bitcoin trading well beyond $100k where I have the likes of $118k in my sights. Still I would rate a correction off of $98k as highly probable, i.e. bitcoin dumps just as most are positioned to capitalise on a break above $100k.
So that there is no confusion, what we are doing is tip toeing across a minefield hoping that poking a stick in the ground ahead of us will get us across without getting blown up. Then there are the genius's using leverage who are running across the minefield with a big smile on their face at all of the profit they are going to make...... which if they make it won't have any idea just how lucky they were not to get blown up!
What follows the peak?
Will it be a short sharp correction or something more protracted along the lines of the 6 month consolidation?
A correction from 98k looks set to resolve in in a move that could resemble a choppy trading range that sees a draw down from the high of between 18% and 26%, the problem with trading ranges is that all one can say is if they are too short or too long, i.e. a few weeks into the trading range off the March high I stated that it should run for at least 3 months and if it follows the historic pattern for as long as 6 months, which is what eventually transpired. At the start my best guess was 3 months, but that it would be better for the prospects for the bull market if the correction went on for longer.
So again I am leaning towards a choppy correction, with lots of false signals both above and below that will confuse all, which by the end will have everyone concluding to expect another 6 month correction just before it blasts off into the final run towards my primary target of $134k with a chance that it makes a run for my secondary target of $144k.
I will take the correction as an opp to lock and load only the primary crypto's that have allowed me to capitalise on this bull market, namely Bitcoin, MSTR and SOLANA, and Doge as for the rest they have not performed as well as expected so I am not going to add to them because despite buying the dip the primary objective is now to reduce exposure to crypto's hence I will only engage in selective buying of these crypto's, and maybe Coinbase if it takes a big dump to under $240.
The risk is that $98k is the final high, but buying at deep discounts means one can still turn a profit on rebuy's, i.e. buying bitcoin below $80k for a pop to at least towards $98k, allows one to trim rebuy's at a profit.
Bitcoin Bull Market Targets Redux
Bitcoin targets dating back to October 2023 analysis and since.
1. $88k - Achieved
2. $98k - Mind games top
3. $104k - chop top
4. $118k - chop top
5. $120k - chop top
6. $130k - Resistance to slice through,
7. $134k - Primary Target.
Each target is an area of resistance i.e. $88k could have marked an interim top since bitcorn traded to above $89k then that implied Bitcoin is targeting an interim top at $98k, beyond which bitcoin enters heavy resistance at $104k, $118k and $120k i.e. I expect choppy price action in that area that will be accompanied by many comments asking if bitcoin has topped. IF bitcorn survives the chop then targets resistance at $130 that I suspect will break to give way to $134k by that time FOMO mania will reign supreme as most cryptoholics plow all of their profits back in for $200k, I suspect bitcoin could top at any point between $134k and $150k so the safest play would be to be virtually out of all crypto by $134k and live with the comments "But Nadeem you sold too early, bitcoin is now at $144k, it's clearly going to the MOOOOOOOOON", to be followed within a few weeks back at $98k, "Nadeem when is bitcoin going back up to $134k ?", not long afterwards - "Nadeem Bitcoin looks very cheap at $88k, should I buy big?"
My reply will be "I am done with crypto's, your now on your own buddy"
ALT COINS SEASON
You won't know it's over until it's OVER! Alls one can do during alt-season is take profits.
First objective is to take what you put in OUT of the market.
Second objective is to milk the crypto coins of profit where the key metric I keep an eye on is the percent of portfolio where if one did nothing and just let the crypto's ride then the percent invested will go up. Instead what one should at least be seeking to do is to maintain the percent invested at a constant percentage else risk being left holding the bag.
In this cycle we have been lucky to get TWO alt seasons, the first was the run up into the March high which saw many crypto's take off like a rocket, that's where the likes of Solana topped out at $204 and then entered into a wide 6 month long trading range that allowed one to accumulate a position whilst taking profits, with the same true for Bitcoin and the primary leveraged proxy MSTR.
However, the correction for alt coins went far deeper which tends to be the case, i.e. lose the eyeballs, speculator interest and the prices tend to collapse as illustrated by AVAX that soared like a phoenix to $64, that likely many found difficult to resist the FOMO only to see the whole advance since the start of the year wiped out all the way to the August low of $18, spending 6 months trading at a deep discount to it's high typically 1/3rd the March high! That's what alt coins do!
(Charts courtesy of stockcharts.com)
For AVAX the first target would be the March high of $66, beyond that FOMO will kick in and propel AVAX towards $100 and beyond that lies the all time high of about $150, given it's price action to date I don't think it will make to a new all time high, thus an achievable FOMO drive target for AVAX would be $100, which would still be a 3X from where it currently trades.
So as we enter alt season once more you do not want to get greedy and you don't want to get complacent, look at what happened in the 4 month run to the March highs, you want to trim as the price goes up with limited rebuy's on the dips, else you will be left holding the bag! The bull market will have come and gone turning all of your paper profits into paper losses.
Unfortunately most are going to get greedy, fantasise they are going to get out at the exact top, instead what will happen is that they will give back ALL: of their profits. I won't be waiting for AVAX $100 before selling, I am already trimming right here right now at $35!
SOLANA Bull Market Targets
One of the few crypto's with an actual use case given the volume of activity and associated fees it generates as being meme coin central, which is why it has already just about achieved my 1st bull market target of $250 this early in the game hence why I voiced a good 6 months ago that Solana could see a huge surprise to the upside were I could see it trading to $500 and may even go nuts and trade to something daft like $1000! Which would be like 50X from where I decided to start seriously accumulating Solana just over a year ago when it was trading at $20! Of course in hindsight I would have bought a lot more, but still by early this year I had stuffed 1% of my portfolio into betting on Solana, a true hero or zero, risk losing 1% for a 10x! A cow that I have been milking first into the $200 March top and during its $100 wide trading range.
The rest of the crypto's are pure gambles, even Ethereum that most for some reason cling on to probably as a legacy of what they experienced during the last bull market, when they completely miss the big picture that Solana IS the NEW Ethereum, this is not something I am saying with the benefit of hindsight but was espousing a year ago! For why I favoured Solana over Ethereum though I do own some Ethereum as well just in case Solana's bubble bursts and Eth remains the defacto king of the crypto's in terms of smart contracts use case.
So Solana has already more than 10Xd to achieve its 1st bull market target, the next target will be $300 and then $500 which now looks doable,. beyond that is the chance of a FOMO MANIA driven run to $1000, though I will probably have cashed out 90% of my SOLANA casino chips by $500,
Bitcoin & Crypto Corrections
The target is $134k, which means the risk is to the upside, which means corrections are technically getting lucky, I say technically because crypto's are not stocks, crypto's are GAMBLING, there is no delusion of rose tinted glasses here, I've stated from the outside that investing in crypto's is gambling in which respect I committed about 3% cash to crypto's to cash out into the bull market mania peak during 2025.
Nevertheless the trim and rebuy game can also be played with crypto's to attempt to milk the crypto cows during bull market volatility as fools FOMO into the tops that deliver the subsequent drops. The crypto corrections table shows the buying ranges of where I would seek to rebuy should a correction materialise though in a bull market the risks are to the upside, so it's not a case of sell everything now to rebuy at at 80,360!.
The Crypto corrections table has been added to the spreadsheet.
MSTR Rocket Will Eventually Get Sucked Into the Crypto Black Hole
As I voiced in my last article holding MSTR is like playing in a high stakes poker game.... To trim or not to trim if so by how much>? Will it dip? if so by how much? it's not as though it's obeying the laws of crypto physics i.e. tracking the bitcoin price trend, $448 is already discounting BTC Trading above $150k hence why I have sold out of 94% of my holding.
MSTR has literally taken off like a rocket, gone nuts to the upside, where I imagined it could find it's way to $332 beyond which was pure fomo mania all the way to $500 that it now could achieve in a matter of days!
There is no point in guessing how high it could go from where other than that the eventual collapse in the MSTR stock price is going to be spectacular, we will probably see it trade to below $100 where my analysis of 8 months ago warned that MSTR would likely be one of the first crypto nuts to crack that would fool many into buying the dips all the way into black hole oblivion as BTC goes up and MSTR goes down. But for now FOMO mania reigns supreme as $500 beckons.
Exit Strategy - Leaving the Crypto Casino with Your Profits
WITHDRAW funds that exceed DEPOSITS, So far I am at 1/3rd of total deposits withdrawn. Note withdraw means WITHDRAWN from crypto accounts and not just cash sat on accounts.
The higher one buy the more likely one will be left holding the bag when crypto's break lower, so one has to have a mechanism to STOP adding more crypto's and start selling out of crypto's. Unfortunately most folk will plow all of their crypto profits back into alt coins and end up losing all of their profits during the inevitable collapse.
The CURE for Diabetes!
More accurately how most can prevent becoming diabetic or reduce their blood sugar towards a normal range.
It's also the primary mechanism for slowing down the ageing process - INCREASE MUSCLE MASS!
At the core of the ageing process and all of the associated diseases such as diabetes is loss of MUSClE MASS! Which is why I keep iterating folk need to take up strength training, and one does not need to waste money on expensive equipment or gym memberships that most who sign up to fail to utilise but just a simple routine 2 or 3 times a week, start light with press ups and progress to pull ups and then after some time one can think about gym equipment or memberships.
Why does it work for preventing type 2 diabetes, because muscles soak up excess sugar from the blood stream! The more muscle mass you have the better your body will be able to cope with blood sugar spikes! These medical quacks have things back to front, insulin this, it's where the blood sugar is supposed to go they need to focus on! Muscles!
Lack of muscle mass is why folk tend to become more diabetic as they age, so yes lay off the carbs (easier said then done) but having significant muscle mass as one ages acts as a protective shield AGAINST all of the consequences of aging!
So if you are pre-diabetic then get strength training and and doing exercise on a regular basis and you should soon find yourself back into a normal glucose range.
Yes, it's not a cure if you are already jabbing yourself with insulin but increasing ones muscle mass will improve your condition. There is no downside to strength training! Unlike all of these pills and potions big pharma and the snake oil sales men tend to come out with every other year, Ozempic, Semaglutide, yes it drops you body weight fast, but if you lose muscle mass disproportionately then you are probably in a worse state then before you lost the weight! If you take these GLP1 antagonists then you need to do a LOT of strength training! So if you are considering taking them then start your strength training programme first for at least 3 months so you are well into the swing and THEN take the GLP1s and ensure you strength train hard because as your weight drops you WILL lose muscle mass and it is infinitely harder to build muscle mass then lose weight! As it involves a learning curve and motivation to get your butt moving at least twice a week, as opposed to sticking a needle in your butt once a week! A patron asked in a comment if Eli Lilly is now a buy given that it's fallen to $750, maybe it's fallen because the GLP1 bubble is bursting, i.e. folk eventually hit the max dose limit and then the med stops working, so who is going to pay and take a med that no longer works?
STRENGTH TRAINING + HIGH PROTEIN DIET = BYE BYE TO DIABETES TYPE 2
All these Dr's with their PHD's tend to talk out of their arse! Of course they are part of the system, on the payroll of big pharma!
Your converted virtually all of his of MSTR casino chips into real money analyst.
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By Nadeem Walayat
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Nadeem Walayat has over 35 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.
Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk
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