Friday, December 30, 2022

Stock Market Cool as a Cucumber Despite Earnings and Fed Noise / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022

By: Nadeem_Walayat

I got my COVD AUTUMN BOOSTER JAB (Pfizer Biontech) Saturday afternoon, unfortunately I have since been paying the price in terms of side effects that kicked in some 12 hours afterwards with shivers and chills, and continue as I write some 36 hours later I am feeling like I have a light flu, lethargic, lack of energy, drowsy despite having slept for over 12 hours. some Brain fog. Still I will see this article posted even if it is the last thing I do!

Friday, December 30, 2022

What Signals Do Gold, Silver, and Stocks Send to Investors? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022

By: P_Radomski_CFA

While the statistics scream, investors, often blinded by emotions, do not hear them. However, since history seems to rhyme, what do gold, silver, and mining stocks have in store for us?

What a boring month!

At least for those who monitor the performance of junior mining stocks. It’s Dec. 29, and the monthly price change for the GDXJ ETF is $0.15 (0.41%). That’s how much higher the GDXJ is now than it was at the end of November. That’s next to nothing – almost a “statistical error.”

Friday, December 30, 2022

Dow Stock Market Annual Percent Change Analysis - Trend Forecast 2023 / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023

By: Nadeem_Walayat

In my extensive analysis of September 2021 this indicator warned to expect the Dow to drop to 28k, the low to date has been 28.7k! For the bull market proper to resume this indicator needs trade above the thick black line, until then the market remains in no mans land of trading within range with the risks of worse to come. Most probable is the market trades in a range i.e. to trade above the blue dotted line, until the market has worked through it's bear phase. At this point I am discounting a re-run of 2008, as so far the indicator is showing a tendency to remain above the grey line, however this also implies that the bull market proper could be as much as a year away! In terms of price, the Dow is not going to see a new all time high anytime soon, probably beyond the end of 2023.

Friday, December 30, 2022

Major Fed Myth: Debunked - Fed is Reactive in Setting Rates – Not Proactive / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: EWI

The days of near-zero interest rates are long gone -- at least for now.

As we look back on 2022, we know that it's been a year of rising interest rates, and many observers say it's all due to the Fed.

But it's a flat-out myth that the Fed determines the trend of interest rates. The market does. The Fed merely.

Friday, December 30, 2022

Sheffield Peace Gardens 2022 Christmas Lights Giant Displays Fun / Local / Sheffield

By: Eliza_Walayat

Here's a look at the wonderful sights and sounds at Sheffield Peace Gardens, christmas lights 2022, giant ornaments which this year included a teddy bear, telephone box and a couple of fountains. So do visit Sheffield and check out the light shows as well as the sights and sounds of the Christmas market and Barkers Pool amongst other shows in our other videos.

Thursday, December 29, 2022

How Stocks Bear Markets DIE! Technical Trend Analysis Forecast 2023 / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The Dow is bouncing off a new bear market low of 28,700 having already broken above the preceding low of 29.7k that targets resistance at 31k. However given the degree of momentum behind this rally the Dow could easily continue climbing to target 32k which would represent a sizeable 12% advance in what I would consider as being a sub-swing i.e. not the whole move which implies that this rally that apparently is being dismissed by most as bear market rally could eventually retrace the whole disown move from the 34k high. But for now the Dow 1st targets 31k and then 32k before it is likely to correct towards 30.5k before RESUMING it's bull run.

Wednesday, December 28, 2022

Formulating a Stock Market Trend Forecast for 2023 / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The character of this bear market has been changing since the June low, first came the break above 33.3k into the August FOMO peak. and then came the decline to 28.7k that whilst a new bear market low was weak in trend channel terms.

so what is going on?

ACCUMULATION is what's going on, Accumulating since the June low. It should be fairly obvious that there is a lot of buying gone on and market manipulation so as to allow it to happen. It's as though the wolfs of wall street are leading the retail investor lambs to slaughter as the retail crowd are dealt hammer blows in either direction aimed at fleecing them of their wealth.

Wednesday, December 28, 2022

Formulating a Stock Market Trend Forecast for 2023 / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The character of this bear market has been changing since the June low, first came the break above 33.3k into the August FOMO peak. and then came the decline to 28.7k that whilst a new bear market low was weak in trend channel terms.

so what is going on?

ACCUMULATION is what's going on, Accumulating since the June low. It should be fairly obvious that there is a lot of buying gone on and market manipulation so as to allow it to happen. It's as though the wolfs of wall street are leading the retail investor lambs to slaughter as the retail crowd are dealt hammer blows in either direction aimed at fleecing them of their wealth.

Wednesday, December 28, 2022

Despite the War in Europe, Gold Remains Below Its 2011 High / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022

By: P_Radomski_CFA

Can gold's recent short-term rally be considered bullish, or can we expect a decline like in 2008?

Is Silver Really Strong?

Gold and silver are moving higher today, but nothing really changed despite that. Silver moved to its previous highs, while gold didn’t (chart courtesy of https://GoldPriceForecast.com).

Monday, December 26, 2022

How Stocks Bear Markets DIE! Technical Trend Analysis Forecast 2023 / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Dear Reader

Dow Short-term Trend Analysis

The Dow is bouncing off a new bear market low of 28,700 having already broken above the preceding low of 29.7k that targets resistance at 31k. However given the degree of momentum behind this rally the Dow could easily continue climbing to target 32k which would represent a sizeable 12% advance in what I would consider as being a sub-swing i.e. not the whole move which implies that this rally that apparently is being dismissed by most as bear market rally could eventually retrace the whole disown move from the 34k high. But for now the Dow 1st targets 31k and then 32k before it is likely to correct towards 30.5k before RESUMING it's bull run.

Monday, December 26, 2022

Gold Price Upleg Still Young / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2023

By: Zeal_LLC

Gold has been powering higher on balance for a couple months now, surging to major breakouts.  That upside momentum is improving sentiment, with traders growing more bullish on gold’s potential.  That is well-placed, as this upleg remains young.  Major gold uplegs are three-stage events, each having distinct drivers.  The first and smallest stage isn’t even finished yet, which bodes very well for gold and its miners’ stocks.

The yellow metal’s latest upleg was stealthily born at panic-grade lows in late September.  Over the next 2.8 months into this week, gold powered an impressive 12.1% higher!  Yet that remains small and young by recent-upleg standards.  Gold’s previous four uplegs in the last few years averaged way-bigger 28.8% gains over much-longer durations of 7.9 months.  This current upleg is likely only getting started, with a lot to prove.

Major gold uplegs evolve through three stages of specific buying from particular traders.  They are born when gold-futures speculators buy to cover short contracts, which is stage one.  After gold falls to deep lows, some catalyst spooks these guys.  So they rush to close out their risky hyper-leveraged downside bets, which is legally required.  That buying soon becomes self-feeding, catapulting gold sharply higher.

Monday, December 26, 2022

US Debt Jubilee / Interest-Rates / US Debt

By: Richard_Mills

A cross-the-board ‘Debt Jubilee’ might sound radical, but a reading of history shows that retiring debt can actually make a country’s economy, and its indebted citizenry, all the better for it. There is even a relatively recent example. In 2000, U2 front man Bono launched a campaign to provide debt relief to developing countries. The Jubilee 2000 coalition managed to get the G8 to agree to write off $100 billion in debts that developing countries owed to developed nations.

The term ‘Jubilee’ comes from the Old Testament. The book of Deuteronomy refers to a sabbath year during which any slaves would be freed, and everyone would be allowed to return to their family farms and live off the land. During the Jubilee, all debt obligations would be forgiven — such as land or crops that debtors had pledged to creditors.

Monday, December 26, 2022

US Economy and Stock Market Addicted to Deficit Spending - Trend Forecast 2023 / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Want to know what tends to drive the stock market into the stratosphere? US Deficit Spending! (actually twin deficits including Trade).

Monday, December 26, 2022

Fuse Box RCD Tripping - How to Troubleshoot Putting Power Back On. Before Calling an Electrician / Personal_Finance / Home Maintenance

By: HGR

Fuse box keeps tripping? Does your electric keep tripping? Then watch this video on how to troubleshoot to get your power back on before calling an electrician.

Monday, December 26, 2022

Llandudno Ferris Wheel at Sheffield City Centre Christmas Market 2022 / Local / Sheffield

By: Eliza_Walayat

Here's a look at the wonderful sights and sounds at Sheffield Christmas Market where the prime attraction was the giant Ferris Wheel brought over from Llandudno Wales. Llandudno Pier owner Adam Williams rolled the the £1million Wheel all the way from Wales to Sheffield Christmas Market after being taken down from the Llandudno pier last month that takes centre piece at Sheffield's christmas festivities.

Saturday, December 24, 2022

How to Disconnect Reconnect a Car Battery, Positive Negative Terminals First and Last - Nissan Micra Example / Personal_Finance / Motoring

By: HGR

Winter has arrived which means many older car batteries may not have enough charging capacity to turn the starter motor to start the car. So it is time for a new battery, bought one online or from the local store but which terminal to disconnect and reconnect first! That and why is answered in this video! No more jump starts or push starts. This example is using a Nissan Micra IV which added it's own complication in terms of post size so something to consider before you rush out to buy a car battery, check your post size first!

Saturday, December 24, 2022

What type of trader or investor are you? / InvestorEducation / Learn to Trade

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Trading and investing are much more complex and challenging than most people think. While countless books have been written about how to trade and invest, most skip over what I consider to be the foundation and most important area – You!

The Brutal Truth

The financial markets are driven by fear and greed. Most individuals find this costly as they get sucked into large news-driven moves in the market that often quickly reverse direction. Or they fall in love with a stock or commodity and decide they can’t sell even when it’s pulling their entire account balance down, causing serious financial harm.

Saturday, December 24, 2022

Why the Fed Intertest Rates Pivot will Happen Faster than People Think / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Richard_Mills

Most market participants see the Fed’s tightening policy as similar to what Paul Volcker’s Fed did in the late 1970s, when double-digit inflation necessitated a cycle of rate hikes that brought the federal funds rate to 20%. Volcker succeeded in taming inflation but the price was the 1982 recession, considered one of the longest and worst in economic history.

There is one crucial difference between 1982 and 2022, and that is the debt. According to the FRED chart below, the US debt to GDP ratio in 1982 was around 35%. Today it is more than three times higher, at 120%.

This severely limits how much and how quickly the Fed can raise interest rates, due to the amount of interest that the federal government must pay on its debt.

Saturday, December 24, 2022

Santa's Grotto UK Cost of Living Crisis Christmas 2022 - 60% INFLATION! / Politics / Social Issues

By: Eliza_Walayat

Nurses, postmen, railwaymen and many others are striking for higher pay due to the raging cost of living crisis as workers pay do not match the prices in the shop, FAKE inflation indices of 10% when real inflation is 20%! Even Santa has hiked his Grotto price by 60%! Making Christmas that bit more painful for many families - BAD SANTA!

Friday, December 23, 2022

TESLA MARGIN CALL PANIC - Margin Debt Analysis - Stock Market Trend Forecast 2023 / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Over leveraged investors in Tesla are learning a painful lesson right now as they are getting kicked out of their positions right at the bottom!

Margin debt tends to peak and fall long before the stock market turns lower as basically speculators start to feel the pain of holding losing positions and thus cut back on their bets. Either that or are forced to close their losing trades due to failure to meet margin calls, in which respect this indicator proved very useful in flagging the prospects for a bear market long before it materialised as stock prices trended higher on petrol fumes as the fuel tank was empty.