Category: Financial Markets 2023
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Thursday, November 23, 2023
Stock Market Ignoring Hawkish Fed / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2023
By: Monica_Kingsley
S&P 500 entered yesterday‘s session on a corrective note, but similarly to recovering from Barkin‘s hawkish message, it did the same following FOMC minutes. Not even NVDA earnings volatility could take the ES below 4,535 – clients‘ long gains whether in swing or intraday publications, are growing – and the result really comes down to when you enter and how you work with risk along the way. Crucial question to ask – are these the circumstances favoring outsized bets, or not?
It boils down to what you think about the bond market – are we see another 10y yield rising episode?
Saturday, November 18, 2023
Quad Witching Cracks Stock Market Nuts / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The S&P is complying with trend forecast expectations that saw Friday's Quad Witching day end down 1.22% at 4450, where some hours before the open I commented -
"It's QUAD Witching DAY. There is a 90% probability for a STRONG DOWN DAY! Which given where the likes of Apple are perched just above support should act as a catalyst for the the sell off into October."
Whilst apparently someone called Cem Karson was eager to convince folks that a correction was 'almost impossible!'
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Sunday, October 29, 2023
The Report that Will Change the Way You View the Markets Forever! / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2023
By: EWI
Dear Reader,
When investors and traders first discover the Elliott Wave Principle, they're often most impressed by its ability to predict where a market will head next.
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Monday, August 14, 2023
Stock Market FOMO Maniacs Rug Pull Imminent? US House Prices Trend Current State / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
We have CP LIE Tuesday and then the Fed rate meeting Wednesday in advance of which retail investors and many fund managers woke up June 1st to realise that there is a bull market underway and literally PANIC bought like a herd galloping towards the edge of the AI cliff.
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Thursday, June 29, 2023
Stocks and Junk Bonds: "This Divergence Appears Meaningful" / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2023
By: EWI
The trends of the junk bond and stock markets tend to be correlated.
The reason why is that junk bonds and stocks are closely affiliated in the pecking order of creditors in case of default. The rank of junk bonds is only slightly higher than equities because debt involves a contract.
Given these two markets are usually correlated, it's worth paying attention when a divergence takes place. Indeed, a divergence is in the works now. In other words, while stocks have been holding up, the price of junk bonds have been trending lower for much of the year.
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Friday, June 16, 2023
Test-Drive This Go-To Global Forecasting Service / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2023
By: EWI
Dear reader,
Do you ever just feel completely run-ragged with all the choices and decisions you're presented with daily? I know I do.
What insurance carrier? What doctor? What school? What... the list is endless.
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Thursday, April 27, 2023
Never bet Bgainst America unless… / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2023
By: Stephen_McBride
Warren Buffett’s latest move might surprise you… US stocks are passing the torch... Plus, a dead-simple way to invest in this big shift…
- When Warren Buffett makes an unusual move… pay attention.
Buffett is likely the best investor of all time.
His firm Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) delivered an average annual return of 20% from 1965 to 2022, which turned a $1,000 investment into $38 million.
Buffett is known for buying large stakes in iconic American companies. He’s invested billions of dollars into brands like Apple (AAPL), Coca-Cola (KO), and American Express (AXP).
Monday, April 03, 2023
Stock Market Counting Down to Pump and Dump US CPI LIE Inflation Data Release / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
US CPI Data released for October, November, December and January show the CPLIE script of usually a fake out drop ahead or on release followed by strong rally on relief that whatever the data is, it was not quite as bad as it could have been and thus triggers a FOMO rally fed by bears shorting during the preceding decline rushing to cover their shorts, and so are we in for a similar event Tuesday? or is this time going to be more like December, the only time when there was a deviation from the script as it was looking rather obvious by then and hence the market did the opposite, what is obvious right now? Probably a FOIMO rally, so on face value suggests to expect the opposite which is what I have been positioning towards these past weeks.
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Wednesday, February 08, 2023
S&P500, Gold, Silver and Crypto's Trend Forecasts 2023 / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
In terms of my stock market trend forecast the Dow by now would be trading at approx 32,500 vs actual last close of 33,203 for a +0.9% deviation, imagine if someone told you where the Dow will be in 3 months time and by that time the Dow is within 1% of the forecast price, so the forecast is proving to be an accurate road map against which to measure relative strength or weakness.
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Tuesday, January 31, 2023
Market Wake Up Call / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2023
By: Monica_Kingsley
S&P 500 did a fakeout yesterday, and closed on a weak note. Nothing sectorally enouraging, and even the mere comparison of Russell 2000 to emerging markets downswings reveals that more is to come today – extending also to real assets. Monday and Tuesday volatility are to turn out higher than I would appreciate, and illustrate the degree to which markets ran with the unreasonable optimism during Fed blackout.
Quoting yesterday‘s not to miss analysis:
(…) The rumor is still being bought, and selling the news would be overcome. The Fed would of course go with 25bp while not commiting to 50bp Mar (25bp are practically baked in the cake, and when I look at the short end of the curve and various yield spreads, I agree with that. The Fed will try to talk some good restrictive game, and will do its best to keep rates at restrictive levels for as long as possible, but Fed funds rate at 5% appears as sound estimate before recession rubber meets the road in Q2 2023.
Wednesday, January 18, 2023
State of the Global Stock and Financial Markets / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2023
By: EWI
Hi,
FACT: Most mainstream market pundits were BULLISH THE WORLD at the start of 2022.
FACT: CASH outperformed stocks AND bonds AND cryptos AND gold AND real estate in 2022.
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Monday, January 09, 2023
Stock Market Bad Is the New Good / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2023
By: Monica_Kingsley
Fitting summary of S&P 500 rally – we‘ve seen one of the largest 2y yields daily declines on slowing wage inflation. ISM Services PMIs also added to the Fed hawkishness reappraisal. Squeezing the bears, credit markets were confirming with a risk-on turn likewise.
Daily market breadth was really good, and spells that the move isn‘t over in the least. It progressed fast on the double punch – NFPs not coming in too hot, and real economy slowdown. Where does that leave us? With more prospects for LEIs moving lower, real estate declines, earnings downgrades and ultimately unemployment increase.
All in the name of fighting inflation, after the transitory debacle I called Apr 2021 vocally. Now, the Fed is to keep tightening into a slowing economy (and ready to overdo it), and its targets of CPI below 5% in 2023 and at 2.5% in 2024, are too rosy.
Apart from the shape of the recession, and how well it would be cushioned by the U.S. consumer (look at confidence, expectations, retail sales, deliquencies etc), the key questions are just how far the Fed would take the Fed funds rate, and how long it wishes to keep it at its own evolving definition of a restrictive level.
Saturday, January 07, 2023
Financial Markets Outlook 2023 - Recession Will Create Opportunities / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2023
By: Submissions
Owen WIlliams writes: As we close out 2022, the worst year for stocks since 2008, we enter 2023 with an elevated risk of seeing an economic recession. From a U.S.-perspective, 2022 was a rare year during which both stocks and bonds suffered major losses. The fastest pace of interest rate hikes since the Volker era, with a 425 bp increase in the Fed Funds rate, penalized both major asset classes and will certainly have repercussions beyond 2022. As many market observers and Fed officials often remind us, interest rate hikes have a long and variable impact on the economy and markets.Before presenting our outlook for each asset class, we share a few general observations for the new year. First, we have never seen two consecutive years during which BOTH equities and bonds have had dismal years. One of the two asset classes should turn in a much stronger performance in 2023. As we explain below, our bet is on fixed income, although there are many attractive areas in equities (outside of the indexes) which are already worth moving into for a long-term position.
Second, we see the extreme reversal in central bank interest rate policy as all part of the Covid episode. The central bank monetary policy, along with the Federal government fiscal policy, reaction to the Covid shutdown was disproportionate, maintained too long, and in our opinion was unnecessary. Policy mistakes in one direction often must be reversed by policy mistakes in the other direction. We believe that this is what is playing out. The Covid episode in its entirety (including the lagged policy mistakes) will become what we refer to as a “watershed moment” for markets. A watershed moment is a major dislocation in markets after any type of excess, be it market-drive (Tech Bubble) or policy-driven (Covid and Housing Bubble). After each dislocation in the past 40 years, we have seen a change in market leadership. As we explain in the Equity section below, the change in leadership we are expecting in this cycle is for relative equity market leadership to shift to international stocks and away from U.S. stocks, which have massively dominated since the Financial Crisis.
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Monday, January 02, 2023
THE TWIN TOWERS OF BABEL ARE COMING DOWN EQUITIES AND BONDS / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2023
By: Darryl_R_Schoon
When leveraged debt is money, what’s to worry?
For three hundred years, the banker’s ponzi-scheme of debt-based money brought wealth to the bankers and power to governments. Nothing lasts forever, however. In 2023, the dangers long dormant beneath the bankers’ debt-based markets are going to erupt.
BlackRock says get ready for a recession unlike any other and 'what worked in the past won't work now' – December 8, 2022
A worldwide recession is just around the corner as central banks boost borrowing costs aggressively to tame inflation — and this time, it will ignite more market turbulence than ever before, according to BlackRock.
The global economy has already exited a four-decade era of stable growth and inflation to enter a period of heightened instability — and the new regime of increased unpredictability is here to stay, according to the world's biggest asset manager.
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