Category: US Housing
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Friday, October 11, 2024
US House Prices Trend Forecast 2024 to 2026 / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
This article is part 3 of 3 of my extensive analysis US Housing Market Analysis, House Prices Trend Forecast 2024 to 2026 that was first made available to patrons who support my work. So for immediate first access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $7 per month, lock it in now at $7 before next rises to $10 per month for new sign-ups. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.
CONTENTS
Stock Market Trend Forecast
US Stock Market vs M2 Money Supply
AI Stocks Portfolio
Nvidia 10 for 1 Stock Split
AI Computers Hype
2024 - AI Equals Loss of Agency
Why Alien Intelligence Cannot Predict the Future
Consequences of AI
UBI - Universal Billionaire Income
GLOBAL WARMING Housing Market Consequences Right Now
RECESSION When Yield Curve Uninverts
Global Debt Bubble.
IMMIGRATION DRIVES HOUSE PRICES HIGHER
US Housing Market Free Equity
US FIXED MORTGAGES LIMITING SUPPLY
HOA Nightmare
Florida Hurricanes
Rentals Crisis
Who is Buying All the Houses?
Commercial Property Capitulation
US House Prices Momentum
US House Prices Trend Forecast
US Housing Market Stocks
UK General Election - 4th July 2024
Monday, September 30, 2024
US Housing Market Analysis - Immigration Drives House Prices Higher / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
This article is part 2 of 3 of my extensive analysis US Housing Market Analysis, House Prices Trend Forecast 2024 to 2026 that was first made available to patrons who support my work. So for immediate first access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $7 per month, lock it in now at $7 before next rises to $10 per month for new sign-ups. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.
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Monday, September 23, 2024
US FIXED MORTGAGES LIMITING SUPPLY / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
No one wants to sell their home and then be forced to re-mortgage their next property at a much higher rate, typically double their current rate i.e. 7% vs 3.5% which acts to restrict the supply of homes coming to the market and thus those that do decide to sell i.e. the mortgage free command a higher price due to lack of supply where in the US 92% of mortgages are fixed unlike the UK where even those with fixed rate mortgage are typically for less than 5 years.
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Monday, September 23, 2024
US Housing Market Free Equity / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Have you wondered how every so often a huge amount of money apparently appears out of nowhere that completely upends the consensus view.,where most only realise it's significance long after asset prices have reacted to the event, a case in pont being March 2020 when few could understand how stocks were about to enter an epic raging bull market when the worst of the pandemic was yet to materialise. At the time one had clues such as that the governments will print twice the amount they printed before as I wrote long before the start of 2000, that will eventually flow into asset prices and of course experience of been through several cycles of similar events of impending doom inexplicably to most translating into soaring asset prices.
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Thursday, September 12, 2024
IMMIGRATION DRIVES HOUSE PRICES HIGHER / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
All those who want house prices to go up should be bending over backwards to encourage immigration because those western nations with little immigration are literally DYING. One only needs to look at Asia.
Japan, immigrant population 2.3% - Fertility rate 1.2 - DYING - Population falling at the rate of near 1 million per year!
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Sunday, April 07, 2024
Hidden cost of US homeownership just saw its biggest spike in 5 years / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Submissions
As millions of Americans lose sleep over record mortgage costs, many overlook one of the biggest expenses they’ll incur as homeowners: property tax.
According to real estate data analytics firm ATTOM, property taxes jumped by 6.9% or more than $4,000 in 2023—the largest annual increase in five years. It's also double the gain from a year earlier.
“Property taxes took an unusually high turn upward last year, pushing effective rates up, while huge gaps in average tax bills between different parts of [the] country remained in place,” said Rob Barber, ATTOM’s chief executive.
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Saturday, February 17, 2024
Nick Millican Explains Real Estate Investment in a Changing World / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Sumeet_Manhas
Real estate has long been considered the gold standard for investment, anchored by reliable returns and long-term stability. However, the world of real estate investment is constantly evolving, and successful investors must be able to adapt to the changing economic, technological, and environmental landscape to remain profitable. Nick Millican of Greycoat Real Estate has established himself as a recognized and trusted thought leader and advisor in the real estate market, particularly when it comes to large commercial properties and developments in central London.
Nick Millican’s work primarily involves acquiring, developing, and operating commercial properties. His company owns and manages a deeply diversified portfolio of assets, and his investment strategies have evolved significantly over the past several years in response to many multifaceted changes across the global economic, political, financial, and real estate worlds.
Friday, January 19, 2024
U.S. Real Estate Market: A 24% Problem / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: EWI
"...24% of U.S. single family homes are owned by investors."
A big reason that U.S. home prices have skyrocketed is that big investors like corporations did a lot of buying.
As a Redfin.com headline noted nearly two years ago (Feb. 16, 2022):
Real Estate Investors Are Buying a Record Share of U.S. Homes
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Tuesday, July 04, 2023
US Real Estate Bubble From A Technical Analysis Point Of View / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Understanding The Market Cycles
My focus usually lies with stock indexes, sectors, and commodities, but today, we venture into the real estate market. Real estate is a market that many people don’t fully comprehend. Many are excited by the robust housing market, believing it’s never been a better time to buy. But the reality is, I believe we’re in a phase that isn’t ideal for such investments.
Taking a leaf from Stan Weinstein’s book, he proposed that the market has four stages: Stage 1, where active investment capital isn’t advisable due to the choppy, flatlining market; Stage 2, the bull market phase; Stage 3, a volatile phase where struggle reigns; and Stage 4, a phase marked by a massive decline. Stages 2 & 4 are usually an easy time for investors to make money. But in Stages 1 & 3, it becomes harder to grow your capital and much easier to lose a hefty portion. This is the crucial time to preserve and protect your wealth for reinvestment when conditions improve.
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Tuesday, March 21, 2023
FOR - Forestar Group - US Housing Market Stocks Analysis / Companies / US Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
US House Prices Current State
My interim view as of early July 2022 based mainly on my stock market, economy and UK housing market analysis at the time (Stocks Bear Market Rally Last Gasp Before Earnings Season, US House Prices 3 Year Probability Range) concluded in an rough expectation for US house prices to target a gain of between 20% and 30% over the next 3 years that would be punctuated by a correction during 2023.
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Tuesday, March 21, 2023
MPW - Medical Properties Trust Inc - US Housing Market Stocks Analysis / Companies / US Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
US House Prices Current State
My interim view as of early July 2022 based mainly on my stock market, economy and UK housing market analysis at the time (Stocks Bear Market Rally Last Gasp Before Earnings Season, US House Prices 3 Year Probability Range) concluded in an rough expectation for US house prices to target a gain of between 20% and 30% over the next 3 years that would be punctuated by a correction during 2023.
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Tuesday, March 21, 2023
IIPR - Innovative Industrial Properties Inc- US Housing Market Stocks Analysis / Companies / US Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
US House Prices Current State
My interim view as of early July 2022 based mainly on my stock market, economy and UK housing market analysis at the time (Stocks Bear Market Rally Last Gasp Before Earnings Season, US House Prices 3 Year Probability Range) concluded in an rough expectation for US house prices to target a gain of between 20% and 30% over the next 3 years that would be punctuated by a correction during 2023.
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Tuesday, March 21, 2023
REDFIN - RDFN - US Housing Market Stocks Analysis / Companies / US Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
US House Prices Current State
My interim view as of early July 2022 based mainly on my stock market, economy and UK housing market analysis at the time (Stocks Bear Market Rally Last Gasp Before Earnings Season, US House Prices 3 Year Probability Range) concluded in an rough expectation for US house prices to target a gain of between 20% and 30% over the next 3 years that would be punctuated by a correction during 2023.
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Tuesday, March 21, 2023
XHB - SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF - US Housing Market Stocks Analysis / Companies / US Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
US House Prices Current State
My interim view as of early July 2022 based mainly on my stock market, economy and UK housing market analysis at the time (Stocks Bear Market Rally Last Gasp Before Earnings Season, US House Prices 3 Year Probability Range) concluded in an rough expectation for US house prices to target a gain of between 20% and 30% over the next 3 years that would be punctuated by a correction during 2023.
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Thursday, March 16, 2023
DR Horton DHI - US Housing Market Stocks Analysis / Companies / US Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
US House Prices Current State
My interim view as of early July 2022 based mainly on my stock market, economy and UK housing market analysis at the time (Stocks Bear Market Rally Last Gasp Before Earnings Season, US House Prices 3 Year Probability Range) concluded in an rough expectation for US house prices to target a gain of between 20% and 30% over the next 3 years that would be punctuated by a correction during 2023.
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Monday, February 27, 2023
US Housing Market House Prices Current State / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The only way I am going to be able to get the US housing market mega analysis done and dusted is if I break it up into digestible chunks, hence it will be delivered in 3 parts -
1. US Housing Stocks and Implications for House Prices
2. US Economy Implications for House Prices.
3. US House Prices Analysis and concluding 3 year trend forecast.
Why housing stocks first and not last?
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Saturday, February 18, 2023
How This Pattern from the Prior US Housing Market Bust is Repeating / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: EWI
Here's when homes will likely sell for once-in-a-lifetime bargains
Just like the gold "in them thar hills" motivated people from all walks of life to become miners way back when, real estate booms have motivated people from far and wide to become agents.
In both cases, easy riches seemed to be there for the taking.
But easy riches can be hard to get sometimes, as this New York Times headline indicates:
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Friday, January 06, 2023
US Real Estate and Banking Warning Signs / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: EWI
Dear Reader,
Here's a paradox for you: The more investors are convinced of a trend, bullish or bearish, the LESS likely that trend is to continue.
Yep. The big crowd gets aboard right as the trend is ready to change.
What about now? Is now one of those moments?
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Thursday, October 06, 2022
US Housing Market BUST - Why the Real Estate Tide is Turning / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: EWI
Here's your next step to get a handle on the global property market.
Treat houses as a consumption item -- or simply as a place to live, and history shows that real prices will fluctuate only modestly over the decades.
Treat houses as an investment, and the value of houses takes on the characteristics of the stock market.
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Thursday, June 09, 2022
UK Housing Market Affordability Crisis / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Most academic housing market commentators focus on the various measures of housing market affordability or rather unaffordability as house prices despite the price crash of 2008-2009 never fell to anywhere near the affordability levels of the early 1990's housing bear market lows and therefore ivory tower academics have continued to cling onto expectations that a further house prices crash is inevitable so as to fit in with their theoretical models of where house prices should fall to in terms of affordability that gets liberally regurgitated in the mainstream press, and looking at the graph below it is very easy to be seduced by something that on first glance appears obvious that house prices really did have a long way to fall to reach the affordability levels of the past.
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Friday, May 20, 2022
US Real Estate Investors – Is There An End In Sight? / Economics / US Housing
By: Chris_Vermeulen
The US stock market contracted sharply over the past 30+ days while traders attempted to identify the risks associated with the US Fed rate increase. Behind the scenes, real estate investors and homeowners are under pressure due to higher costs on nearly everything. Gas, food, everyday items, credit card interest payments – almost everything costs more due to inflation and increasing fuel costs.
I remember in 2007-08 when Oil reached levels above $140ppb and the seemingly high costs of everything just before inflation peaked and the markets turned bearish. Back then, much like today, a period of extreme speculation seemed to permeate buyers and investors throughout the US.
What broke this trend was the Global Financial Crisis. When the economy started to unravel, excessive credit/debt levels suddenly became unmanageable for nearly everyone. What seemed like a reasonable and manageable amount of debt suddenly became excessive as the US Fed raised the Fed Funds rate from 1.0% to 5.5% – a 450% increase.
Recently, we’ve seen the US Federal Reserve raise rates from 0.25% to 1.0%. The Fed may raise rates again soon, trying to tame inflation. I don’t have a crystal ball, but it is not difficult to understand how inflation, higher consumer costs, and increased debt servicing costs are going to panic many real estate investors, especially after many years of ZIRP and low inflation.
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Tuesday, May 17, 2022
This is Anything but Positive for US Housing Market / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: EWI
Has the rise in mortgage rates only begun?
A tug-of-war between bullish and bearish forces appears to be playing out in the U.S. housing market.
On the one hand, some areas of the country are still experiencing record-high home prices as buyers outnumber sellers.
On the other, the number of home sellers who dropped their asking price spiked to a six-month high of 15% during a four-week period ending on May 1, according to a Redfin report released on May 6.
Another development that falls in the bearish category for residential real estate is rising mortgage rates.
Here's what the April Elliott Wave Financial Forecast, a monthly publication which provides analysis of major U.S. financial markets, noted as it showed this chart:
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Thursday, February 10, 2022
Important Things You Need To Consider Before Selling A Property / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Steve_Barker
House-selling is one of the most complex things that you'll ever do in your life. It's not just about choosing the right realtor or finding an ideal property, but there are some other factors that are just as important, so keep reading to find out what they are.
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Saturday, January 22, 2022
Best Neighborhoods to Buy Real Estate in San Diego / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Umer_Mahmood
San Diego is known for immaculate weather and pristine beaches alongside a bustling downtown scene focused around PetCo Park and the Gaslamp district. While San Diego is not known for its affordable real estate, the area is still rapidly growing, and those who have the funds to spend can find some great neighborhoods that are rapidly growing.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, November 29, 2021
Should You Invest In Real Estate In 2021? / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Submissions
Investing in real estate has the capability to steadily generate income, and is a viable long-term investment option. Then again, investing in real estate is a serious undertaking, and you have to be doubly sure before coming to a decision. You can use a real estate investments API to discern whether the time is ripe for buying or selling.
In the US, the real estate sector saw a steep rise in sales even during the pandemic last year. So considering it a seller’s market, the main question is whether you should invest in real estate in 2021 or not.
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Sunday, October 10, 2021
US Real Estate ETFs React To Rising Housing Market Mortgage Interest Rates / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
As the Real Estate market shifts away from super-low interest rates and skyrocketing home prices throughout the COVID-19 crisis, we are starting to see the Real Estate ETFs weaken in trend and start to move lower. The recent rising Mortgage Rates will likely continue to weaken sales trends and push home prices a bit lower over the next few months. The Real Estate ETF, IYR, is already reflecting a roughly 10% decline in valuation since early September 2021.
In the first part of this research article, I shared a historical chart of the US Average Mortgage rate and some data suggesting the average US consumer is somewhat bound to certain home price constraints based on Average Income. Typically, mortgage payments should stay below 50% of the borrower’s total take-home income. Depending on the borrower and the home price, many US borrowers may already be priced out of the market – even with 3.25% interest rates.
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Friday, October 08, 2021
Why a Peak in US Home Prices May Be Approaching / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: EWI
"Is it a good time to sell a house?"Some people buy a house solely as an investment.
Others want a better place to live -- perhaps more room for a growing family. The investment part is secondary. However, even people in this category would likely hold off on a purchase if they had an indication that lower home prices were just around the corner.
Well, there is such an "indication."
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Thursday, September 09, 2021
This Boom-Bust Cycle in US Home Ownership Should Give Home Shoppers Pause / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: EWI
Here's "what happens when a consumption item becomes an investment item"
On a news / talk radio station in my local area, a commercial that frequently runs goes something like this:
"I buy all kinds of houses: big houses and small houses, condemned houses, foreclosed houses, 'my tenant won't pay the rent' houses ..." and on it goes. The speaker says he's a real estate investor and provides his phone number.
Real estate speculation like this helps drive home prices up across the country.
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Friday, September 03, 2021
Don’t Investing Tomahawk Yourself Just to Own a Home / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Jared_Dillian
A house is a terrible investment. But for a lot of people, it’s the best investment.
Let's unpack that…
Unless you buy a new house, you will probably spend up to 1% of the value of the house on maintenance every year.
Stuff breaks. Pipes burst, roofs leak, and occasionally the whole thing burns down. I live by the ocean, so the maintenance is relentless—constant leaks, not to mention the hurricanes. Plus, you have to pay to insure it, you have to pay the property taxes, and you have to pay for all the other stuff. And that's on top of the mortgage.
Saturday, August 14, 2021
U.S. Housing Market: Not "a Bubble This Time Around"? / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: EWI
Here's what usually coincides with a big decline in real estate pricesYou probably know that the U.S. housing market has been red hot.
A certified financial planner wrote a July 20 article for Kiplinger, mentioning the record price levels in many areas of the country, and then added a personal observation:
I witnessed the price rise first-hand. I recently returned from a family vacation in the North Carolina mountains, where many homes now sell for double or triple the price compared to just a couple of years ago.
Stories abound of buyers signing contracts on homes without even doing a walk through. Some real estate agents are advising buyers to forgo inspections, saying they will just slow the process.
Wednesday, August 11, 2021
The Tiny House I Grew up Just Sold for $430k / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Stephen_McBride
“$430,000 for THAT?”My colleague nearly spat coffee on his laptop when I showed him the house my mom just sold.
It’s the white door on the right:
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Saturday, July 10, 2021
US Home Buying Trends Showing Signs Of An Extreme Bubble Setup – Is It About To Burst? / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Chris_Vermeulen
As we continue to explore the recent data and setup related to the current Housing market bubble, this, Part II of our research, will continue to highlight the similarities we are seeing in the current market climate to the 2005~2008 Housing/Credit market event that crashed the markets over 15 years ago. Additionally, we’ll also highlight some of the efforts the US Federal Reserve and global central banks have taken to support the recovering global economy over the past 15+ years. Are they pushing the markets to extremes and will they be prepared for a reversion event if one takes place?
In the first part of this research article, we highlighted the Supply/Demand equilibrium function and the four laws of the Supply/Demand equation. It is important to understand that all price exploration/valuation functions operate within the boundaries of these Supply/Demand functions. Buyers and Sellers are always operating within these boundaries – even if they don’t know it.
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Saturday, June 19, 2021
Here’s Why Historic US Housing Market Boom Can Continue / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Stephen_McBride
Over the past few weeks, I’ve been getting the same question. And it’s an extremely important one.US housing prices are rising at the fastest pace since 2006. Can this possibly continue? I’ll get the short answer out of the way first—YES. In fact, my research says we’re just getting started. And it all has to do with one key metric.
I’ll explain what that is in a moment, as well as the #1 way to take advantage of it. But first, let’s look at where we are today.
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Monday, June 07, 2021
Why "Trouble is Brewing" for the U.S. Housing Market / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: EWI
"Home price declines follow home sales declines"
In many parts of the country, the price of homes has been skyrocketing.
Indeed, the index of home prices across 20 large cities increased at a yearly pace of 13.3% in March, according to a well-known home price index.
That statistic appears to represent a sign of health for the housing market. So, you may ask: "Why is trouble brewing?"
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Tuesday, May 18, 2021
Why the Demand for US Real Estate Licenses May Soon Fall into a Sinkhole / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: EWI
By this measure, the housing boom may be nearing an end
A lot of people who've lost jobs have turned to getting their real estate licenses as a path to prosperity.
Part of the mindset that selling houses is worth a try is the belief that prices go up most of the time.
As the Wall Street Journal noted on March 21:
[S]urging prices are persuading tens of thousands more Americans to try their hands at selling real estate.
There have been many other periods of time when home prices have trended higher. However, that's not always the case. As you know, home prices sank significantly following the subprime mortgage meltdown of nearly a decade-and-a-half ago.
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Friday, April 30, 2021
Want To Invest In US Real Estate Market But Don’t Have The Down Payment? / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Chris_Vermeulen
As an asset class, real estate should be a part of every balanced investment portfolio. That’s because real estate investments generally have a low correlation to stocks, can offer lower risk, and provide greater diversification.
Today about 65% of Americans own a home, but that means that tens of millions of Americans have no exposure to real estate. Making matters worse, becoming a homeowner today is harder than in previous generations, with 1 in 5 millennials believing they will never be able to afford a home. Is there a way to get exposure to the real estate market for as little as $100?
Residential real estate market trend
From the chart below, we can see that the residential real estate market continues to climb and the median price of houses sold in the US is near recent all-time highs of $347,500. Even though mortgage rates remain near all-time lows, the appreciation of prices in certain pockets of the country are making many cities and areas simply unaffordable for most. Things look much the same for industrial, commercial, agricultural, and most other specialized real estate subsectors.
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Thursday, April 22, 2021
Here's What to Look For When Hiring a Real Estate Agent / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Steve_Barker
The most daunting experience for an individual or family shopping for a new house or wanting to sell their property is hiring a real estate agent or firm that can represent their interest throughout the entire process.
Buying a home is a huge milestone in a person’s life, but when you lack knowledge about the real estate market, it could become a sour experience. And it is the same thing when you want to sell your home, you need realtors to help you navigate the process while holding your hand all the way.
Most people shopping for properties in the real estate market are first-time homeowners, to ensure that your lack of experience is not exploited, get the right property that suits you for the right price, it is important that you engage the services of a real estate agent.
It gets tricky here because you cannot just decide to hire a realtor on a whim; they need to tick certain ethical, professional, and psycho-analytical boxes before you make the final decision.
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Friday, April 16, 2021
What Skyrocketing US Home Prices Say About Inflation / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: MoneyMetals
Anyone who says inflation isn’t a problem hasn’t tried shopping for a new home recently.
Housing costs are skyrocketing. The median sales price of existing homes has spiked 16% over the past 12 months (from $270,400 to $313,000) – the fastest pace in 15 years.
The real estate market is being pressured not only by a low inventories of houses listed for sale, but also by rising prices for construction materials.
Home builders must deal with a massive 200% increase in lumber costs since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. According to the National Association of Home Builders, lumber’s elevated price adds about $24,000 to the final quote on a typical new single-family home.
Tuesday, March 23, 2021
US Housing Market House Prices Trend Forecast 2021, 2022 / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Formulating a US House Prices Forecast
Pandemics end, momentum, economic, trend and real terms prices analysis ALL point towards a US house prices boom of sorts for 2021. Targeting a bull run into the end of 2021 of about +10% on the most recent Case Shiller 10 city Index (SPCS10RNSA ) rising from 248.5 (Oct 2020 data) to about 273 for Dec 2021 data.
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Monday, March 22, 2021
US House Prices Real Terms BUY / SELL Indicator Trend Forecast / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
What does my primary indicator on the health of the US housing market say that has proven accurate for literally decades! Catching every major bull and bear market of the past 30 years! From it's first SELL signal in 1990 to it's last BUY in 2012. What do real terms US prices say for the prospects for 2021?
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Thursday, March 11, 2021
Debt and Yield Curve and US House Prices Trend 2021 / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
One of the reasons why my analysis of April 2019 was more subdued in terms of the prospects for US house prices than it would otherwise have been is because the yield curve was flirting with inversion, that I concluded that the Fed would not allow to take place and thus adopt whatever measures were necessary to PREVENT inversion that tends to foreshadow lower inflation and recessions.
Tuesday, March 02, 2021
US Housing Market Trend Forecast 2021 / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Given the US governments continuing catastrophic response to the coronavirus virus resulting in severe economic contraction then one would assume that the crowing from the rooftops perma bear deflationistas would finally be proven right with their decade long perma bear messages of a US housing market crash finally being fulfilled. So is that what happened? Were the perma bears finally proven right by chance, a black swan event courtesy of a leak from a wuhan bio lab?
We'll in economic terms the US as is the case for all western nations has come under severe economic pressures following the panic lockdown responses to an out of control pandemic with further economic pain expected during Q1 2021 in a race against time to deliver vaccines into american arms.
The recovery in US employment has started to flat line as the US heads into new lockdown's as the pandemic Wave 4 starts to materialise, thus expect US unemployment to increase though to nowhere near the extent of the first wave.
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Tuesday, March 02, 2021
Covid-19 Vaccinations US House Prices Trend Indicator 2021 / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
In my opinion one of the primary indicators for economic recovery for the US and the rest of the world is the percentage of the the adult population that has been vaccinated, and especially the segment of the population at highest risk of hospitalisation and death from covid-19 i.e. the over 50's. In which respect US vaccinations currently stand at 6.2 million with approx 1 million americans being vaccinated per day (1st dose) or about 0.3% of the population. Which frankly is just not good enough. So unless things step up a gear perhaps after Biden takes office then under the current pace the US is not going to have vaccinated 50% of the population until late May and that is just with the first dose!
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Friday, February 26, 2021
US Housing Market House Prices Momentum Analysis / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Houston we have Lift OFF! If it were not clear from the house prices graph then it should be clear form the momentum graph that US house prices have taken off! Rising at their fastest pace since 2012! Likely to end 2020 up about 8% on the year. Furthermore the breakout above the 2018 peak suggests further strong house prices gains to come during 2021 i.e. this sort of powerful up thrust in trend usually does not turn on a dime.
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Thursday, February 25, 2021
Work From Home Inflationary US House Prices BOOM! / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The pandemic has resulted in many tens of millions more americans working from home. As someone who has been working form home for a good 15 years I can well understand why house prices have rocketed higher as prospective home buyers both seek out properties that are better suited to working from home, more suburban, quiet office spaces, plenty of storage, or view properties with scope to being upgraded into work from home environments.
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Wednesday, February 24, 2021
US Housing Market 2021 and the Inflation Mega-trend - QE4EVER! / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Whilst the US stock market had a panic attack crash into Mid March. The crash where US house prices are concerned was UPWARDS! Which should not come as much of a surprise to those who have been following my analysis for the past 10 years! Money printing, MONEY PRINTING! When you know the Fed is about to print a shit load of money whatever they call it, will mean that assets that cannot be easily printed will surge higher, this IS the INFLATION MEGA-TREND IN ACTION!
The primary mega-trend IS THE INFLATION MEGA-TREND! Those who bet against it on hopes of a repeat of the 1930's depression will keep going BROKE!
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Tuesday, February 23, 2021
US Economic Trends - GDP, Inflation and Unemployment Impact on House Prices 2021 / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
GDP
The US economy is recovering fast from the corona crash with annualised GDP down just 2.8% for Q3, a remarkable performance and far better than most western nations.
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Tuesday, February 23, 2021
US House Prices Trend Forecast Review / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Did the coronavirus pandmeic deliver the perma bears their US house prices crash that they have been crowing so loudly for for over a decade now?
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Sunday, February 21, 2021
US House Prices Vaccinations Indicator / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
In my opinion one of the primary indicators for economic recovery for the US and the rest of the world is the percentage of the the adult population that has been vaccinated, and especially the segment of the population at highest risk of hospitalisation and death from covid-19 i.e. the over 50's. In which respect US vaccinations currently stand at 6.2 million with approx 1 million americans being vaccinated per day (1st dose) or about 0.3% of the population. Which frankly is just not good enough. So unless things step up a gear perhaps after Biden takes office then under the current pace the US is not going to have vaccinated 50% of the population until late May and that is just with the first dose!
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Saturday, February 20, 2021
US House Prices Momentum Analysis / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Houston we have Lift OFF! If it were not clear from the house prices graph then it should be clear form the momentum graph that US house prices have taken off! Rising at their fastest pace since 2012! Likely to end 2020 up about 8% on the year. Furthermore the breakout above the 2018 peak suggests further strong house prices gains to come during 2021 i.e. this sort of powerful up thrust in trend usually does not turn on a dime.
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Saturday, February 20, 2021
The Most Important Chart in Housing Right Now / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Stephen_McBride
American homeowners just got a lot richer. According to internet realtor Zillow (ZG), US housing gained $2.5 trillion in value last year. That’s the biggest jump since 2005.
Simply put, the housing market is booming right now. The CEO of homebuilder Toll Brothers said: “We’re experiencing the strongest housing market I’ve seen in my 30 years.” Mortgage lenders handed out a record $4.4 trillion in home loans in 2020. America’s largest lender, Quicken Loans, was writing $1 billion of loans per day!
This is one of the greatest comebacks in American history. Between 2006 and 2009, the average home lost over a quarter of its value. More than eight million Americans lost their homes during the collapse.
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Thursday, February 18, 2021
Work From Home Inflationary House Prices BOOM! / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The pandemic has resulted in many tens of millions more americans working from home. As someone who has been working form home for a good 15 years I can well understand why house prices have rocketed higher as prospective home buyers both seek out properties that are better suited to working from home, more suburban, quiet office spaces, plenty of storage, or view properties with scope to being upgraded into work from home environments.
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Monday, February 15, 2021
US House Prices Real Estate Trend Forecast Review / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Did the perma bears finally get their US house prices crash that they have been crowing so loudly for a decade now?
Firstly a recap of my existing US house prices trend forecast.
30th April 2019 - US House Prices Trend Forecast 2019 to 2021
Therefore my forecast conclusion is for a relatively weak continuation of the US housing bull market into late 2020 at a much shallower pace than experienced in recent years for a likely gain of just 3% over the next 2 years (Jan 2019 to Jan 2021) before entering into a downtrend going into 2021 i.e. Case Shiller 10 city Index (SPCS10RNSA ) rising from 225.9 (Jan 2019 data) to just 232.4 (Jan 2021 data) as illustrated by my trend forecast graph.
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Monday, February 08, 2021
Will Commercial Real Estate Recover in 2021? / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Sumeet_Manhas
With the COVID-19 pandemic devastating many industries worldwide, tourism and commercial real estate are two of the most prominent and the most negatively impacted.
With remote working forced upon many companies across the UK and abroad, the commercial property market has plummeted; “fallen off a cliff” is possibly the best metaphor to highlight the industry's plight amid the pandemic.
With tourism hit as well, hotel rent delinquency rates grew from 1.5% in the US during January 2020, to approximately 25% in July 2020 according to one report from Yahoo Finance.
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Monday, November 09, 2020
Americans Are Buying Homes Sight Unseen: Here’s Why / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Stephen_McBride
Lester Knispel bought the $1.5 million white-columned house on the second fairway. His Porsche is now parked in the garage. And family pictures hang in the living room.
But Lester and his wife have never set foot inside their new country club home! They live in California, and didn’t want to visit Florida during the lockdowns.
So instead they toured the five-bedroom mansion virtually, bought it, and then shipped the car and furniture soon after. “I never thought I’d buy something like this, sight unseen” Knispel told the Wall Street Journal.
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Sunday, November 01, 2020
US Housing Market Is In A Full-Fledged Boom / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Stephen_McBride
The US housing market is booming. Last month, the number of Americans buying new houses spiked to a 14-year high. Home prices are growing at their fastest pace since 1991. And US mortgage lenders just recorded their biggest quarter in two decades. Lenders handed out a staggering $1.1 trillion in home loans in the past three months!
I’ve been pounding the table on the US housing market since early 2019. And it’s still one of the best money-making opportunities in the entire stock market today. Not even coronavirus could derail this runaway train.
For example, mortgage applications jumped 50% this year to their highest levels since 2005. In other words, US housing is as strong as it was at the height of the housing bubble.
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Friday, August 07, 2020
The Great American Housing Boom Has Begun / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Stephen_McBride
What if I told you that US housing is one of the best money-making opportunities today? You’d probably think I’m crazy. After all, how can anyone think housing is a good bet right now… especially in the middle of a global pandemic?
Well, today I’m going to show you the facts. You’ll see exactly why I’ve never been more excited about US housing. You’ll see why the coronavirus hasn’t even dented this market. And you’ll find out the best way to play this boom for maximum profits.
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Friday, July 31, 2020
Why US Commercial Real Estate is Set to Get Slammed / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: EWI
Commercial real estate investors are in an especially precarious position should another financial crisis unfold.
A July 18 Marketwatch article titled "The open secret in commercial real estate is that owners regularly take cash out of properties ..." says:
Borrowers, ahead of this [year's] downturn, pulled more equity out of U.S. commercial buildings than ever before. ...
Debt relief conversations already started in April ... between the hardest-hit commercial property borrowers and their lenders.
Since then, delinquent commercial mortgage-backed securities loans have climbed to nearly 10%, rivaling the worst levels of the global financial crisis [in 2007-2009].
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Monday, July 20, 2020
US Housing Market Collapse Second Phase Pending / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Chris_Vermeulen
In this second part of our research into what we believe is the US pending real estate collapse, we’ll explore more data supporting our expectations. In the first part of this article, we highlighted the Case-Shiller data showing home price levels had already exceeded 2006-07 levels and how earning levels have collapsed after the COVID-19 virus event. Our research team believes thee extremely high price levels, combined with the uncertainty of future earnings, unemployment, layoffs, and other economic contractions will result in a late 2020 or early 2021 shift in the residential real estate market.
We already know that commercial real estate has experienced one of the worst declines in decades. Delinquencies have skyrocketed and thousands of US businesses have entered bankruptcies. Main street and consumer services sectors will likely continue to feel the pain related to the post-COVID-19 economy for many months still. The question before all investors should be “how will the price levels reflect the changes in earning and economic data throughout this transition?”
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Tuesday, June 02, 2020
US Real Estate Stats Show Big Wave Of Refinancing Is Coming / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Current data released for the May Real Estate and Consumer Spending activity suggests a wave of refinancing is taking place – and not much else. Pending home sales slipped to 69. That level is 7.4 points below the lowest level in 2010 – at the height of the 2008-09 credit crisis that collapsed the global Real Estate values. How big is this new low level in Pending home sales? It’s HUGE.
It suggests the rate of sales in the US for Real Estate has collapsed beyond levels that were seen at the worst possible time in recent history (July 2010). In fact, over the past 20 years, there has never been a time when the pending home sales index has collapsed below 74 to 75 – until today.
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Friday, May 22, 2020
Signs Of Long Term Devaluation US Real Estate / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Continuing our research into the Real Estate market and our expectations over the next 6+ months or longer, we want to point out the disconnect between the current US stock market rally and the forward expectations related to the real economy. Our researchers believe the current data from Realtor.com as well as forward expectations suggest a major shift related to “at-risk” real estate (both commercial and residential).
Unlike the 2008-09 credit crisis, the COVID-19 virus event is quickly disrupting consumer engagement within the global economy and disrupting spending activities. Spending is shifting to online, fast food, and technology services for those that still have an income. For those that have lost their jobs, spending is centered around surviving the COVID-19 virus event and hoping to see new opportunities and jobs when things open back up.
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Thursday, May 21, 2020
US Housing Market Covid-19 Crisis / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Continuing our multi-part article related to our belief the Real Estate sector is about become the next big segment to begin to collapse as a result of the COVID-19 virus event and the extended shutdowns taking place throughout the globe, we’ll continue to review the data and explore various options for skilled technical traders.
In Part I, we shared some recent data that suggests the housing market is starting to fracture at quite a fast rate. Today, we’ll explore additional data that could help us understand where opportunities exist and how to prepare for this potential second phase of a broader financial collapse.
Over the past few years, the housing market has continued to rally past almost everyone’s expectations. The COVID-19 virus event was simply a catalyst for a revaluation event within a hyper-inflated financial system. For nearly 20 years, global central banks continued to pour capital in the global markets attempting to spark inflation rates that supported rising interest rates. This is like pumping Helium into a failing balloon attempting to keep it inflated and floating. As long as the structure of the balloon does not rupture, it might hold up for a while longer. Once the structure bursts, it’s all over.
With the housing market, the revaluation event that usually takes place is a contraction in price that usually lasts about 3.5 years. Are we setting up another revaluation event in the housing market?
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Tuesday, May 19, 2020
US Real Estate Showing Signs Of Covid19 Collateral Damage / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Chris_Vermeulen
As we continue to digest economic and global data, our researchers have focused on Real Estate as we believe the contraction in the US economy, spanning corporate, main street, and millions of Americans, will quickly reflect in a slowing Real Estate market. Our researcher attempted to dive into the most recent data from Realtor.com (https://www.realtor.com/research/) to identify any trends or insights we could find to prepare for a broader contagion event.
Current data suggests the US Real Estate market has begun a dramatic slowdown even though the listing and pricing data does not reflect this data yet. In short, more homes are being pulled from active listings and those that are still listed are sellers that can wait out their price or are under pressure to sell because of other factors. Historically, Summer months typically result in a moderate decrease in price levels as more homes get listed for sale and “Days On Market” (DOM) lengthens. Something big is starting to take place almost everywhere in the US as current data suggests inventory is shrinking, price levels are still moderately high and DOM level has increased dramatically.
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Wednesday, May 13, 2020
Why Financial Trouble Brews on the "Home" Front / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: EWI
The world has been hearing a lot about "homes" in recent months, as in -- "stay there" to help halt the spread of COVID-19.
At the same time, the sales of those homes in the U.S. have seen a significant slowdown.
No doubt about it, the coronavirus has played a big role. Yet, a notable divergence was taking shape in the housing market long before the current pandemic.
Financial history shows that it's happened before.
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Saturday, April 25, 2020
US Housing Market Real Estate Crash The Next Shoe To Drop – Part II / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Chris_Vermeulen
As we continue to delve into the looming Real Estate crisis that will likely hit the US and globe over the next 12 to 24+ months, we want to focus on the human psychological process of dealing with a crisis event and how that relates to economic engagement. In the first part of this research article, we discussed how the time-line and events that have unfolded over the past 120+ days have setup a continuing global crisis event. The best of our knowledge, there has been nothing like this, other than massive wars like WWII, that have taken place on the planet over the past 75+ years.
This presents a very real possibility that human psychological processes have engaged throughout the planet that may disrupt how effective the recovery efforts are in the near future. If humans engage in a traditional psychological crisis-cycle process, then there is little chance that the economic recovery will reach 2018-2019 levels very quickly. Let’s review the psychological process of a crisis event.
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Friday, April 24, 2020
US Real Estate Housing Market Crash Is The Next Shoe To Drop / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Chris_Vermeulen
The past few weeks and months have been very interesting to see how the global central banks and governments have attempted to position themselves ahead of this COVID-19 virus event. We continue to suggest that we are just starting the process of navigating through this potentially destructive virus event. We believe the sudden onset of the virus pandemic has sent a shock-wave throughout the globe in terms of expectations and valuations that are, just now, starting to become “real”. Let us try to explain our thinking and how this relates to Real Estate…
Before we continue much further, we suggest taking a moment to review our previous research articles related to the Real Estate market which we predicted the selloff and falling values. Both of these articles were at the top of the Yahoo finance and Google with hundreds of thousands the week we posted them:
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Thursday, March 26, 2020
US Housing Real Estate Market Concern / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Chris_Vermeulen
In this second part of our research into the potential collateral damage, the Covid-19 global virus event may cause in the housing and commercial real estate markets, we want to start by sharing some information that severe cracks are already starting to appear in the entire system. If you have not read PART I – Click Here
Hedge funds and banking institutions may already be feeling the pressure to attempt to contain the losses that are piling up (source: https://www-bloomberg-com).
An extended decline in the global markets will continue to place pressure on institutional financial markets, banks, hedge funds, and other traditional lending and investment firms. Investors will start to pull investment capital away from risk (out of the markets and funds) and may expose some of these larger institutions’ excessive leverage and risk exposure in the process.
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Monday, March 23, 2020
Concerned About The US Real Estate Market? Us Too! / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Chris_Vermeulen
The current global Covid-19 virus event has upended everyone’s forward expectations related to the US and global economy. Recently, President Trump has announced a 12-month reprieve for homeowners who find themselves without income, or a job, because of the US National Emergency related to the Covid-19 pandemic (source: https://www.npr.org).
All of the recent repositionings of the global markets and forward expectations got us thinking about “what happens after 8 to 12+ months? How will the US and global markets attempt a recovery process – if at all?”. Today, we are going to try to start digging into the data that we believe is relevant to the future in terms of hard asset prices (home and other property) and more liquid asset prices (global financial markets).
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Wednesday, February 05, 2020
There’s More Than One Way To Invest In Real Estate / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Joshua_Rodriguez
Investing in real estate is a hot topic these days. After all, there are several people that have made a killing doing it. Not to mention, several television shows have popped up over the past few years, outlining the fact that there’s money in the space.
However, the general perception is that in order to invest in real estate, you have to have enough money to buy a house, piece of land, or commercial building. While this is one way to go about an investment in real estate, it’s not the only way to do it. If you’re considering getting into the space, here are a few ways to consider breaking through:
Tuesday, December 03, 2019
About To Relive The 2007 US Housing Market Real Estate Crash Again? / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Does history repeat itself? Are price patterns and chart patterns reliable enough to suggest that a global Real Estate market collapse may be set up? What would it take for another Real Estate collapse to take place in today’s global market?
First, let’s start with this simple chart highlighting the “Bear Flag” setup from 2007 and the current 2019 Bear Flag setup. This price pattern was enough of an early warning sign for our research team to run into our offices and tell us of the exciting pattern they just identified regarding Real Estate and what they thought could happen. We listened to them share their ideas and concepts of how we have 11 months to go before the 2020 US Presidential election takes place and how higher risk delinquencies and foreclosures are starting to spike. They suggested the political theater of the global markets and US election cycle will likely distract from the weakening economic cycle which could present enough “smoke and mirrors” to keep investors’ attention away from this potential collapse in the housing market.
Much like a magician attempts to distract you just long enough to pull of their new trick, could the political theater, global economic news cycles and the never-ending battle in Washington DC be just enough of a distraction that skilled traders miss this critical setup? We hope not.
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Monday, November 25, 2019
New Threat To US Housing Market & Stocks From Government Deficits / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Dan_Amerman
A new era began for us all in September and October of 2019, with the introduction of a new element that is likely to become one of the dominant investment market influences in the 2020s.
What is shown in the orange area of the graph above is something brand new. When we understand why the Federal Reserve abruptly reversed course, created $280 billion in new money in two months and injected it into the financial system - then we can also explore why this new element could still just be getting started and could lead to quite different prices and risks for stocks, bonds and homes in the 2020s, making the new decade entirely different from the 2010s or any previous decade.
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Wednesday, October 30, 2019
Why Americans Will Begin Regretting Buying That New Home / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Harry_Dent
There’s one thing that is always true: Most people are not good investors. They buy the most near a long-term top and they sell the most near the bottoms that follow.We have lived in a rare period since World War II wherein housing was first boosted by the first middle class generation (The Bob Hope) who could more broadly afford homes and mortgages, and then by the unprecedented and massive Baby Boom generation’s demand.
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Wednesday, October 23, 2019
Downsizing – What to Watch Out For / Personal_Finance / US Housing
By: Submissions
If you find that your current home is now too big for you, the idea of downsizing can be very appealing. Perhaps your children have moved away and the extra space is making you miss them more. Perhaps you’re starting to struggle with getting up and down the stairs, or with keeping everything clean. Perhaps you just like the idea of having a smaller place in a more convenient location, or of freeing up money so you can live more comfortably. Downsizing isn’t always trouble-free, however. To avoid problems, give some thought to the following.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, October 18, 2019
The Biggest Housing Boom in US History Has Just Begun / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Stephen_McBride
Bill Brame edited Star Trek films before he took up “house flipping.”
During the housing boom, Bill was often “turning around” 14 houses at once with three crews of renovators working full time.
In 2004, he paid $400,000 for a house in Hollywood, California. A year later he flipped it for $1.2 million.
Back then, flipping houses was the most profitable side-job in America. Buy a house, fit it with a new kitchen, sell it for a big mark-up, repeat.
In 2006, one in every 10 homes was bought to flip!
Friday, October 11, 2019
US Housing Market 2018-2019 and 2006-2007: Similarities & Differences / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Dan_Amerman
As can be seen in the graph below, there is an almost uncanny similarity between housing prices at the 2006-2007 peak, and current home prices.
The biggest difference is that current home prices are substantially higher. Should we be worried about a repeat scenario - and another six year decline in home values?
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Friday, October 11, 2019
What’s Your Plan as the Home Price Index Hits Zero / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Rodney_Johnson
The real estate industry must have the best lobbyists in the country. How else can you explain that a data-driven transaction – buying or selling a home – has become more onerous, and more cumbersome. And overall more painful even as information becomes cheaper and easier to get?These guys are protecting their turf, and we’re paying for it.
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Friday, October 11, 2019
Will Miami be the First U.S. Real Estate Bubble to Burst? / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Harry_Dent
Earlier this week I read a great article by Kuppy at Adventures In Capitalism. It brought back memories of the last condo and real estate bubble in Miami… I was there. I was moving to Tampa and sold before the crash that I was nearly alone in forecasting in late 2005 .Kuppy noted that prices had plateaued for a few years and had begun to drop 20% to 35% in South Beach – and worse in the downtown Brickell area. He talks to a friend who makes non-traditional loans against these condos, and he says “it’s about to blow… just give it six to nine months.”
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Wednesday, September 18, 2019
No More Realtors… These Start-ups Will Buy Your House in Less than 20 Days / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Stephen_McBride
Roughly $900 billion worth of real estate changes hands every year in America.
For many folks, buying a home is the biggest decision of their lives.
What is the neighborhood like?
Are the schools good?
How far is the drive to work?
Monday, September 16, 2019
The Disconnect Between Millennials and Real Estate / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Rodney_Johnson
A couple of weeks ago, I wrote about the tribulations associated with selling a home. We were in the thick of inspections, appraisals, etc. As we sold our home, and worked on a separate home purchase at the same time.Then our home sale fell through, which killed my purchase. While I might not be heeding Harry’s advice to be real estate free, I’m also not so bullheaded as to own two homes that function as primary residences.
Just like baseball, there’s no crying in real estate. We wiped the slate clean and started over. A new buyer showed up within 10 days.
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Monday, September 02, 2019
US Housing Market House Prices Trend Forecast Current State / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
It's been a while since my last analysis of the US housing market, in fact a full 3 years, preceded by my original 3 year trend forecast covering November 2012 to early 2016 that forecast a strong a bull market against expectations at the time (and for many subsequent years), for it's forgotten today that in the aftermath of the financial crisis the prevailing view was that the US housing market was dead for a generation, and this not just from the usual perma doom merchants (I don't like to name names but you know who they are!) but was consensus view at the time.
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Friday, August 23, 2019
Is the Fed Too Late Prevent A US Housing Bear Market? / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Chris_Vermeulen
So, the reality is that based on our modeling system and our research, there are only two ways that the US Fed (and likely the global central banks) can navigate out of this inflation killing debt glut that has sunk the global markets into a quicksand-like economic malaise; either A. reduce debts dramatically across the board (all nations) in an attempt to allow for some level of future growth/inflation opportunity, or B. find a way to push GDP out levels to 2x (or higher) that of current debt levels. A is much more difficult to negotiate and navigate – but it may be an option sometime in the future. B is the more likely option with a transition into some type of new 21st-century economic model that assists in advancing the build-it, sell-it model.
In the last, Part II, a section of our research, we showed you a chart of our US Fed modeling system and where we believe the US Fed should be targeting rates currently. The one thing that was a bit different than our original model, created in 2013, was the election of President Trump and the EU, US/China trade wars. This could complicate things a bit in the future, but overall the model continues to perform well.
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Thursday, August 22, 2019
Fed Too Late To Prevent US Real Estate Market Crash? / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Chris_Vermeulen
In Part I of this research, we highlighted the Case-Shiller index of home affordability and how it relates to the US real estate market and consumer economic activity going forward. We warned that once consumers start to shift away from an optimistic view of the economy, they typically shift into a protectionist stance where they attempt to protect wealth, assets and risk of loss while attempting to weather the economic storm.
We’ve seen this happen in 2008-09 as well as after the 9/11 attacks in the US in 2001. The process is always somewhat similar. Consumers start to react to pricing levels that are unaffordable and do so by trying to skimp on extraneous purchases like travel, new cars, credit card debt or other items that are not essential. The other thing that happens is that the lower tier borrowers (the “at-risk borrowers”) typically begin to become delinquent on debts and fall behind on their mortgage payments. This is how the process starts.
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Wednesday, August 21, 2019
Fed Too Late To Prevent A US Housing Market Crash? / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Real Estate is one of the biggest purchases anyone will make in their lifetime. It can account for 30x to 300x one’s annual income and take over 30 years to pay off. After you’re done paying for your property, now you have to keep paying to maintain it and to support the property taxes to keep it. What has happened to the US Real Estate market since the 2008-09 global credit market collapse and is the US Fed behind the curve?
Case-Shiller Home Price Index
One of the most common indicators used to measure national housing affordability and price trend is the Case-Shiller Home Price Index. In this chart, we are displaying the Case-Shiller National Home Price Index – including all markets in the US. It is fairly easy to see that in last 2016, on a national level, the Case-Shiller index had reached the 2006 peak level. After that, the new Trump economy pushed it even higher where we now near 210. This is a very uncommon level for this index and because we are in uncharted territory with this 210 ranking, it should concern everyone that a reversion maybe somewhere in our future.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, August 20, 2019
How to Play Interest Rates in US Real Estate / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Rodney_Johnson
I can walk into a car dealership and drive away with a moving asset worth more than $130,000 in less than an hour. However, if I want to buy – or sell – an immovable object that’s always right where you left it, then I have to go through a million hoops.
Home Sale And Home Purchase
Clearly, I’m frustrated with the latest twist in my home sale and purchase saga.
Everything started out pretty good. We listed the house, had a fair number of showings, no real bites, so lowered the price. And we negotiated with one couple, but before we settled on a number, another group jumped in and out-bid them. We came to an agreement and started the option/inspection/negotiation/appraisal process.
Saturday, July 20, 2019
US House Prices Trend Forecast 2019 to 2021 / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This is the final analysis in my US housing market series that concludes in a detailed multi-year trend forecast.
- Current State
- Momentum Analysis
- US ECONOMY - GDP
- Unemployment
- Inflation
- Producer Prices Index
- Yield Curve
- US Debt
- QE4EVER!
- DEMOGRAPHICS
- US Home Builders Index (XHB)
- US Housing Market Real Terms BUY / SELL Indicator
- US House Prices 2019 to 2021 Trend Forecast Conclusion
- Peering into the Mists of Time
Tuesday, July 16, 2019
US Housing Market Real Terms BUY / SELL Indicator / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This is the latest analysis in my US housing market analysis that concludes in a detailed multi-year trend forecast that covers the following in bold
- Current State
- Momentum Analysis
- US ECONOMY - GDP
- Unemployment
- Inflation
- Producer Prices Index
- Yield Curve
- US Debt
- QE4EVER!
- DEMOGRAPHICS
- US Home Builders Index (XHB)
- US Housing Market Real Terms BUY / SELL Indicator
- US House Prices 2019 to 2021 Trend Forecast Conclusion
- Peering into the Mists of Time
Friday, July 05, 2019
US Home Builders Index (XHB) Analysis / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This is the latest analysis in my US housing market analysis that concludes in a detailed multi-year trend forecast that covers the following in bold
- Current State
- Momentum Analysis
- US ECONOMY - GDP
- Unemployment
- Inflation
- Producer Prices Index
- Yield Curve
- US Debt
- QE4EVER!
- DEMOGRAPHICS
- US Home Builders Index (XHB)
- US Housing Market Real Terms BUY / SELL Indicator
- US House Prices 2019 to 2021 Trend Forecast Conclusion
- Peering into the Mists of Time
Friday, July 05, 2019
US Housing Market Demographics / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This is the latest analysis in my US housing market analysis that concludes in a detailed multi-year trend forecast that covers the following in bold
- Current State
- Momentum Analysis
- US ECONOMY - GDP
- Unemployment
- Inflation
- Producer Prices Index
- Yield Curve
- US Debt
- QE4EVER!
- DEMOGRAPHICS
- US Home Builders Index (XHB)
- US Housing Market Real Terms BUY / SELL Indicator
- US House Prices 2019 to 2021 Trend Forecast Conclusion
- Peering into the Mists of Time
Thursday, July 04, 2019
US Housing Market Is Booming, but Investors Are Still Too Scared to Invest in It / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Stephen_McBride
The US housing market is booming.
This past month the number of Americans looking to buy a new house spiked to a three-year high. Mortgage applications jumped 40%.
And Quicken Loans, the US’s largest mortgage lender, had its best month in 30 years.
“The phone is ringing off the hook” CEO Jay Farner said in a recent interview.
Tuesday, July 02, 2019
Are US Real Estate ETF’s The Next Big Trade? Part II / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Chris_Vermeulen
In part I of this research post, we highlighted how the shifting landscape of the US real estate market may be setting up an incredible trading opportunity for technical traders. It is our belief that the continued capital shift which has been driving foreign investment into US assets, real estate, and other investments may be shifting away from US real estate as tell-tale signs of stress are starting to show. Foreclosures and price drops are one of the first signs that stress exists in the markets and we believe the real estate segment could be setting up for an incredible trade opportunity.
SRS, the Proshares Ultrashort Real Estate EFT has recently completed a unique “washout low” price bottom that we believe may become an incredible trading opportunity for technical traders. If the US Fed pushes the market into a panic mode, sellers will become even more desperate to offload their homes and buyers will become even more discerning in terms of selecting what and when to buy.
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Monday, July 01, 2019
Are Real Estate ETF’s The Next Big Trade? / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Chris_Vermeulen
A subscriber recently mentioned getting into a real estate ETF so we started going over the data which may suggest the Real Estate sector could become the next big trade over the next 12+ months. The news that the US Fed may decrease rates in an attempt to front-run global economic weakness and real estate market weakness may result in a waterfall event in local and regional real estate markets. This type of event could become a fantastic trading opportunity for technical traders.
Recently we have been talking about the unit and very different opportunities in other physical assets like precious metals. Each metal is unique for market timing has its own personality. Our gold predictions are an eye-opener, why silver is awesome, and our most recent analysis on platinum is timely.
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Monday, July 01, 2019
5 Real Estate Investment Tips to Consider / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Umer_Mahmood
If you’re looking to invest in something that will provide you with a steady amount of wealth, then the real estate market may be an option.Investing in real estate has been around for decades and has proven to make investors quite a bit of money. Much of the success comes down to the interest rates and inflation. What you bought 20 years ago will likely bring you a hefty return in 2019.
As with any investment journey you go on, it’s essential to have a plan. We have five real estate investment tips that you’ll want to consider as you create your plan.
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Tuesday, June 11, 2019
US House Prices Yield Curve, Debt, QE4EVER! / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Yield Curve
The yield curve (spread between 2 year and 10 year US bonds) continues to flirt with inversion, currently standing at 0.23%. Clearly the housing market is not comfortable with an inversion given the slowing trend since 0.5%.
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Tuesday, June 04, 2019
US Unemployment and Housing Market Trend Forecast / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
A stable strong economy can further be seen in the unemployment statistic of just 3.8% marginal above the low of 3.7% and off of a recent high of 4%. As long as unemployment stays stable at around 4% then this should be supportive of house prices going forward.
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Friday, May 31, 2019
US House Prices Momentum Analysis / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The US housing market since early 2015 had been trundling along nicely on a momentum of between 4% and 6% per annum. However as of the most recent data that trading pattern has been breached with momentum falling to +3.2% as a consequence of outright falls in US house prices over the past 3 months. Therefore given the trend trajectory it is highly probable that US house prices are now trending towards 0% house price inflation and may even briefly go negative, which I am sure will send alarm bells ringing at the Fed, as it would fear that its banking brethren are about to feel some pain, and we all know what happens when the banks start to feel pain!
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Wednesday, May 01, 2019
US Housing Market House Prices Bull Market Trend Current State / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
It's been a while since my last analysis of the US housing market, in fact a full 3 years, preceded by my original 3 year trend forecast covering November 2012 to early 2016 that forecast a strong a bull market against expectations at the time (and for many subsequent years), for it's forgotten today that in the aftermath of the financial crisis the prevailing view was that the US housing market was dead for a generation, and this not just from the usual perma doom merchants (I don't like to name names but you know who they are!) but was consensus view at the time.
So before we plunge into the analysis deep towards concluding in a trend forecast, it's good to understand the reasons why the consensus led by academics usually tend to find themselves on the WRONG side of major market trends.
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Saturday, April 27, 2019
How to Make Money on Your House / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Rodney_Johnson
My house is in a bit of disarray. We’re spring cleaning, but it’s more than that. We’ve decided to move, so going through clutter takes on new meaning.We don’t need to move, but as I wrote a few weeks ago, we’re looking to the future and trying to determine how best to position ourselves. Two hundred feet from open water in one of the more expensive homes in the neighborhood looks less attractive when I consider rising taxes and higher flood insurance. As many of you commented, it might be time.
But now I’m a bit anxious. Other high-end homes in my neighborhood aren’t moving. After making a tentative decision to sell, I have that nagging worry that I won’t be able to get the price I want.
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Saturday, April 27, 2019
Dangers in the US Real Estate Market / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Harry_Dent
There’s been a lot in the news lately about a slowing U.S. property market, with San Francisco a particular worry. According to Reuters, home sales fell more than expected last month. The National Association of Realtors said that existing home sales dropped 4.9%.
I’m, in fact, in Australia for the next two weeks – my third visit in 14 months – because real estate prices are cratering. Everyone seems shocked. I’ve been warning of this for a long time now.
While scanning headlines at 2 a.m. local time (4 p.m. Eastern – jet lag’s a *****), I saw several articles about trouble brewing in the San Francisco real estate market. Again, not surprised.
Friday, April 12, 2019
Elliott Wave Analysis of XLRE (Real Estate Select Sector SPDR ETF) / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: WavePatternTraders
XLREThis index is one of the more cleaner markets and showing a potential impulse wave (5 wave advance) from the Dec 2018 lows, whilst many other sectors and US stock markets have lagged this index, the clarity of this particular index, actually highlights a potential setup for a reversal and an opportunity for those that want to bet on a potential decline.
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Wednesday, March 20, 2019
Here’s What You’re Not Hearing About the US - China Trade War / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Harry_Dent
China’s been playing hardball with the U.S. over trade talks. There’s good reason: they’re gunning for the title of Top Global Economic Power, above the U.S. and other players.They’re embracing the short-term pain to win the long-term fight.
But…
They have growing problems, with slowing growth and exports, and we’ve heard much about this lately from Main Street. But those are only symptoms.
Deep down, they have a demographic problem, an overinvestment-in-infrastructure problem, and a real estate problem. Today, let’s talk about that last one.
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Thursday, March 07, 2019
Millennial Home Buyers Not as Active as Boomers Were in US Property Market / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Harry_Dent
Andrea Riquier, my favorite commentator on the housing market, grabbed my attention again with her 2018 MarketWatch article entitled “Missing Millennial Homeownership Endangers the American Dream.” You can follow her on Twitter @ARiquier.She pointed to a report from the Urban Institute’s Housing Finance Policy Center that suggests the “story of Millennials and homeownership is in many ways a story of inequality in America – and one that might be getting worse,” as she put it.
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Thursday, March 07, 2019
How Will Boomers Affect US Real Estate and Nursing Homes / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Harry_Dent
Recently we talked about why Millennials aren’t buying a house at the same rate as their Boomer and Gen X parents. Today, let’s talk about how Boomers and Gen Xers are actually contributing to the housing shortage, and so driving up prices and thwarting the ability of younger people to buy.And…
Why that could start to change rapidly just ahead.
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Saturday, February 16, 2019
My Favorite Real Estate Strategies: Rent to Live, Buy to Rent / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Harry_Dent
Did you read Andrea Riquier’s two articles on Market Watch last year about real estate strategies?Definitely worth it!
The first was “The new housing play: helping priced-out renters become long-distance landlords.”
It was a strategy aimed at people living in unaffordable areas like San Francisco, Los Angeles, Miami, or New York.
Rent in those areas to avoid the high purchase costs and a major bubble burst (when it inevitably comes). Then use your freed-up borrowing power to buy a house in an affordable area where renting for income is more lucrative, and far less risky. We’re talking places with high percentages of single-family rentals, like Detroit, Las Vegas, or Kansas City and a few more listed below.
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Wednesday, January 09, 2019
Are Changing Prices to San Francisco Starter Homes Enough? / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Harry_Dent
Bubbles ultimately die of their own extremes, although it always helps to have a trigger like the subprime crisis in 2006.But the San Francisco area takes the cake when it come to the U.S. real-estate bubbles! (That Canadian honor goes to Vancouver and in Australia it’s Sydney and Melbourne.)
And prices have started to fall, albeit slowly, despite no slowdown in the economy and only modestly rising interest rates thus far.
Why?
Because of the insanity of home prices there! They’re massively overpriced, especially in the large and critical starter-home market.
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Tuesday, December 11, 2018
Making Money through Property Investment / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Submissions
When it comes to making money, there are various ways in which you can invest in order to get returns. People have their own preferences when it comes to the most suitable investments for them but one type of investment that has always proven popular and lucrative is property investment. Whether you are in it for the short term or the long haul, property investment provides a great means of making money.
People have their own ideas and preferences when it comes to making money from property investments. The great thing about this type of investment is that you can opt long term and short term investments with property. You should think carefully about which of these options is going to be right for you depending on your finances, preferences, and long terms goals.
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Saturday, December 08, 2018
Rising US Home Prices and Falling Sales / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Harry_Dent
Did you watch my video two Fridays ago? If not, check it out here. I explained how gold bugs are giving you dangerous advice about gold as an investment.But gold isn’t the only investment that people mistakenly make because they’re told the wrong thing.
Real estate is another one.
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Thursday, November 15, 2018
Buying Your First Home? Here’s How to Save Money / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Dylan_Moran
...
Monday, November 12, 2018
How "Free Money" Helped Create Sizzling Housing Market & REIT Gains / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Dan_Amerman
Housing prices and the associated REIT returns have worked very differently in the United States since the recession of 2001. The increasing financialization of the real estate markets by Wall Street, and the aggressive and unconventional interventions by the Federal Reserve over that time, have combined in multiplicative fashion to produce new and volatile sources of housing profits and losses.
One such change has been the creation of an extremely powerful profit engine for housing, that most real estate investors have not been taking into account. Indeed, there is a strong mathematical case to be made that "yield curve spread compression" has supported and enabled the substantial majority of housing price gains for homeowners and investors on a national average basis since the beginning of 2014.
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Monday, November 05, 2018
The Cycle Saving Home Buyers $3,000 Per Year Just Ran Out Of Fuel / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Dan_Amerman
Home buyers in every city and state have been benefiting from a powerful financial cycle for almost five years. Most people are not aware of this cycle, but it has lowered the average monthly mortgage payment for home buyers on a national basis by about $250 per month since the end of 2013.
The interest rate cycle in question is one of "yield curve spread" expansion and compression, with yield curve spreads being the difference between long term and short term interest rates. This interest rate spread has been going through a compression phase in its ongoing cycle, meaning that the gap between long term interest rates and short term interest rates has been falling sharply in recent years.
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Sunday, October 07, 2018
Where Have the Affordable Homes Gone? / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Harry_Dent
Bubbles are self-defeating. Their success is what eventually kills them.The same is true for cycles.
Take the urbanization cycle for example…
As a population urbanizes, people get wealthier. But more affluent urbanites have fewer kids and that slows future demographic growth for the next generation.
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Friday, August 31, 2018
If You Consider Your Home an Investment, Read This / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Jared_Dillian
Is your home an investment?
Some say yes.
Some say no.
I say:
- It is an investment
- Not a great investment
- But for a lot of people, the best investment
Let’s unpack.
Tuesday, August 21, 2018
The Sunbelt is Dominating the US Housing Market / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Harry_Dent
I’ve never read so many good articles and rankings on cities by growth, affordability, and desirability. Especially during a time when the real estate market is crazy!This is the last one I’ll bring you for now…
This study rates on three measures, population and housing, workforce and earnings, and business growth.
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Tuesday, August 21, 2018
Rent Your House: The Ultimate US Real Estate Strategy / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Harry_Dent
I enjoyed two recent articles by Andrea Riquier at MarketWatch.The first was “The new housing play: helping priced-out renters become long-distance landlords.”
It was a strategy aimed at people living in unaffordable areas – like San Francisco, Los Angeles, Miami, or New York…
By renting there to avoid both high purchase costs and a major bubble burst (when it inevitably comes), you free up your borrowing power to buy a house in an affordable area where renting for income is more lucrative, and far less risky.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, August 12, 2018
Hardest US Housing Market Places to Live - Look Out Middle Class / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Harry_Dent
In San Francisco, a household now needs an income of $188,000 to afford rent for the average two-bedroom house or apartment with 30% of the household income spent on housing.
The problem is that the median income is only $103,801.
Housing is 81% out of reach!
And this is true across the country as well.
Sunday, August 12, 2018
America’s Suburbs Are Making a Comeback / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Harry_Dent
Lately, I’ve been focusing a lot on real estate.There are starting to be clear signs of extremes in pricing, and high rent burdens.
Cities are starting to crack on the high end.
It’s what I’ve forecasting – that this second bubble burst would start on the high end and work down. Unlike the last bubble, which started on the low end with the subprime defaults.
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Saturday, August 04, 2018
America Where to Live, Most Desirable Best US Cities / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Harry_Dent
There was an update to the rankings of the most desirable cities to live in the U.S. by U.S. News & World Report.
Colorado Springs sprung into first place for the first time. I’ve been there, and can understand why they picked the place.
It’s beautiful, at the foot of dramatic mountains (Pike’s Peak), close to the glorious Broadmoor Resort, and only one hour from one of the most attractive larger cities, Denver, which comes in at number 10 on the list.
Sunday, July 22, 2018
The Death of the US Real Estate Dream / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Harry_Dent
In I showed how Japan’s first and more massive real estate bubble peaked in 1991. And then showed how it crashed right along our bubble model into 2013.
The difference was, it never bounced. Even when its Millennial generation came along to buy houses again.
A rise of “dyers” (sellers) were offsetting the rise of Millennial buyers.
Now let’s look at the U.S. bubble – or our double bubble.
Saturday, July 21, 2018
The Death of Japan's Real Estate Dream / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Harry_Dent
It’s no secret that Millennials are not buying homes as early or to the degree that Boomers did.They saw the first major real estate crash since the Great Depression. So, rentals are up and home buying is down.
But this is being called “the Dream on Hold.”
Our view is based purely on demographics, and it is more extreme than that: By 2024 the home ownership dream as a means to wealth will be DEAD!
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Thursday, July 12, 2018
One Drawback to the US Real Estate Bubble / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Harry_Dent
I’ve been ranting for weeks now about it… People don’t understand that sky-high home prices are bad for countries, cities, businesses, and consumers.And only the 62% of people who already own homes are feeling the “bliss” of the bubble. They’re the ones who want prices to keep going up so they get something for next to nothing…
There’s another side effect of this housing bubble. We’ve seen it in the bubbliest areas for years…
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Sunday, June 17, 2018
How Oil Prices Are Affecting Real Estate / Commodities / US Housing
By: Rodney_Johnson
I had a finance professor in college who referred to self-evident ideas as BGOs, or blinding glimpses of the obvious.The term stuck with me, and my kids have heard it their entire lives.
And it came to mind recently when I considered if rising oil prices weighed on the real estate market.
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Sunday, June 10, 2018
All US Homes Are Overvalued / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Raul_I_Meijer
My long time pal Jesse Colombo, now at Real Investment Advice, recently linked on Twitter to a Zero Hedge article, which quoted CoreLogic as saying more than half of American homes are overvalued. CoreLogic calls itself “a leading provider of consumer, financial and property data, analytics and services to business and government.”
Well, CoreLogic is way off. All American homes are overvalued. How can we tell? It’s easy. It’s so easy it’s perhaps no wonder that people overlook the reasons why. But we all know them: The Fed has pushed some $20 trillion down the throats of the financial system. It has also lowered interest rates to near zero Kelvin. Then the government added a “relaxation” of lending standards and an upward tweak of credit scores. And Bob’s your uncle.
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Wednesday, May 23, 2018
How Much Is Your House Worth Today? Another Crisis Brewing? / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Kelsey_Williams
We seem to have come full circle in the past ten years or so. The pipe dream of being a millionaire by virtue of owning a home – any home – is stoking unrealistic fantasies once again.
But, before we get carried away, here is a story about home ownership that might cause you to question the potential reality of that dream.
The house was built in 2007, almost concurrent with the peak in froth and expectation surrounding residential real estate at that time.
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Wednesday, May 09, 2018
It’s Not Supply & Demand Inflating This US Housing Market Bubble / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Harry_Dent
I recently told our readers about how this latest real estate bubble looks just like the last one. It’s surged about the same, this time peaking a little higher, and has run for about as long.But what’s driving this bubble is totally different than what drove the last one.
The first bubble was thanks to Baby Boomers flooding the market as they surged through their peak home-buying years in unprecedented numbers. They were helped along with the most liberal lending standards in history. Remember the days of subprime, variable rates, and NINJA loans?
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Wednesday, May 09, 2018
The Top 20 Small Towns Millionaires Call Home / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Harry_Dent
I came across some interesting data recently…If you’re thinking of retiring or moving to a smaller area that still has some affluence, maybe a few good restaurants, here are 20 small towns that have a high percentage of millionaires.
Millionaires are only 4% of households in the U.S. with an overall median income of $59,039.
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Wednesday, May 09, 2018
The 20 Cities Most at Risk in US Real Estate Market / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Harry_Dent
Guess where the greatest real estate gains have been since the Great Recession and the massive QE surge?Florida and California… surprise, surprise!
California real-estate prices have exploded because there’s very limited supply there and Florida prices shot to the moon thanks to that states high domestic and international migration.
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Tuesday, April 17, 2018
Triggers to Set off the Next US Housing Market Real Estate Collapse / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Harry_Dent
Did you see the recent Bloomberg article about how Manhattan home sales have tumbled the most since 2009?How about Thursday’s Washington Post article about how new D.C.-area real estate firms have started offering sellers a commission (rather than expecting them to pay one)?
Or the one from CNBC on Wednesday about how mortgage application volume was 5.5% lower last week, from one year ago?
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Saturday, April 07, 2018
The Biggest Weakness Facing US Real Estate / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Harry_Dent
Right now, Millennials are the largest cohort of homebuyers in America.And even though they’re waiting longer to get married, start a family, and buy a home… and they’re more likely to skip buying a starter home and opt for a larger property…
They have almost ZERO interest in the massive McMansions the Baby Boomers built. Those behemoths cost a fortune to maintain, they typically lack the desirable open floor plans and high-end amenities Millennials want, and they’re usually located in hellish suburbia, far away from the hip neighborhoods and fun activities.
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Saturday, April 07, 2018
Looking at My US Housing Market “Doomsday” Map / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Harry_Dent
Jeff was a small business owner in New Hampshire. One Tuesday afternoon, his neighbor called…“You need to get home NOW! There’s a dumpster in your yard, a padlock on your door, and a bunch of guys are ransacking your house!”
Completely panicked, Jeff dropped everything and raced home. When he got there, he found most of his family’s possessions either in a heap in the front yard or tossed inside the dumpster.
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Saturday, April 07, 2018
Looking at Real Estate Prices in Major World Cities / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Harry_Dent
£593,369 – the average price of a house in London in January! (That’s about $829,000.)$1 million plus – what 400 square foot condos go for in Vancouver!
$1.5 million – the cost of a median house in San Francisco!
$20 million – for a 2,000-square foot penthouse condo with a view of Central Park!
Who the hell can afford prices like these?
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Monday, March 19, 2018
US Housing Real Estate Market and Banking Pressures Are Building / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Early signs that the US Fed may be pushing the envelope of rising rates and creating pressure on banks and borrowers are starting to show up more prominently now. One component of our research at Technical Traders Ltd. is to find data that may be overlooked or ignored by some other researchers. We believe that any pressures or hardships related to general consumers will be seen first in discretionary debt (credit cards, autos, and entertainment/activities). When consumers feel the debt pressure starting to build, they react by cutting back on certain discretionary spending – focusing their purchasing/paying abilities on essential items like food, human necessities (toiletries and other essentials) and maintaining essential components of their lives.
Wednesday, January 24, 2018
This US Real Estate Bubble Looks Very Familiar / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Harry_Dent
We called the real estate bubble top in late 2005, just before it began to burst in early 2006. So did Jim Stack, a newsletter writer in Whitefish Montana.Now Jim has a Housing Bubble Bellwether Barometer that’s flashing a sell signal after going up 80% last year. All our alarms are going off as well.
The Confidence Indicator for the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo is at its highest reading in 18 years… higher than it was in early 2006.
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Thursday, November 16, 2017
Instructions to Stop a Dispossession Home Sale and How to Purchase Astutely at Abandonment Home / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: D_Morgan
David Morgan writes: Auctions
On the off chance that you are one among the individuals who are sitting tight for their home, which is going to be sold and a huge number of adjacent individuals have gathered to buy your property, don't feel this is the end. Dispossession has gone up by very nearly 57 rates in the initial a half year of 2008.
Wednesday, October 04, 2017
Tools for Doing Successful Real Estate Marketing / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Kavinesh_A
Today you have all kinds of tools you can use for doing good marketing of real estate. Besides the traditional billboards and signs, there are also plenty of other tools that have been very successful if you want to sell property fast. Online marketing is essential of course, but offline real estate marketing should never be neglected. The following are some tools that should help you make successful real estate marketing.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, July 19, 2017
US Housing Market - Goodbye Hotel California / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Rodney_Johnson
Not everything about my recent move from Florida to Texas was tough. I didn’t enjoy the packing and cleaning, or the unpacking and more cleaning. But there was one thing that made me smile.I kicked my storage unit to the curb.
Five years ago we decided to downsize. There was no way to put 4,000 square feet of furniture into 2,100 square feet of space. We made tough decisions on what to keep and what to give away or sell, but in the end we had a few items that had no home in the new house, but we couldn’t part with.
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Friday, July 07, 2017
Find Out How to Amazon-Proof Your Real Estate Portfolio / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Charles_Sizemore
I recently heard Amazon, the world’s largest online retailer, described as a “bull in a china shop” for the way it’s disrupted industry after industry.But that’s really the wrong analogy. An angry bull lashes out erratically, goring or trampling whatever happens to be in front of it at the moment. Amazon is far too mechanical for that.
The better comparison for Amazon would be a steamroller. Like a steamroller, Amazon slowly and methodically flattens everything in its path.
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Wednesday, April 19, 2017
US Housing Market Starts Plunge 6.8% as Sentiment Soars / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Mike_Shedlock
Unless housing starts data is another one-time affair, and it could be given the volatile nature of housing starts, this recovery is nearly over just as sentiment is peaking.
Econoday notes a 6.8% decline in housing starts for March to 1.215 million units seasonally adjusted annualized (SAAR).
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Monday, April 17, 2017
US Housing Market Mortgage Delinquency Rates Increase & 3X ETFs / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Delinquency rates in Single Family Residential Mortgages and other Consumer Loans began to climb through the later half of 2016 and early 2017. The timing of this delinquency rate increase coincided almost identically with the Fed increases in their Funds Rate. Additionally, commercial loan origination stalled for the first time since 2008-2011 (prior to that was a stall in 2000).
As you’ve been likely been following our daily video market analysis, you’ll know that we believe the market is still in a bullish trend and that we expect this upward price action to continue for a while.
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Monday, April 03, 2017
Why US Commercial Real Estate Is the Next ‘’Big Short’’ / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: STRATFOR
A small but growing group of hedge funds are positioning themselves to profit from the collapse of the real estate market. Sounds like 2007, right? It’s actually happening right now.
But this time, hedge funds (along with Deutsche Bank and Morgan Stanley) aren’t targeting subprime mortgages—they’re going after commercial real estate.
It’s no secret retailers and malls have been struggling for years, but it looks like the perfect storm is set to hit them in 2017.
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Friday, March 31, 2017
Our Economies Run On Housing Bubbles / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Raul_I_Meijer
We are witnessing the demise of the world’s two largest economic power blocks, the US and EU. Given deteriorating economic conditions on both sides of the Atlantic, which have been playing out for many years but were so far largely kept hidden from view by unprecedented issuance of debt, the demise should come as no surprise.
The debt levels are not just unprecedented, they would until recently have been unimaginable. When the conditions for today’s debt orgasm were first created in the second half of the 20th century, people had yet to wrap their minds around the opportunities and possibilities that were coming on offer. Once they did, they ran with it like so many lemmings.
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Thursday, March 23, 2017
Is Now a Good Time to Invest in the US Housing Market? / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Nicholas_Kitonyi
The US housing market has maintained its subdued growth following Trump’s election to The White House. Towards the end of last year, especially in the run-in to the US presidential elections, there was what appeared to be a strong belief that Trump would be bad for the stock market if elected as president, and by extension the overall economy of the US.However, the US stock market has experienced one of the best runs in history repeatedly breaking the all-time highs from one week to the next. The housing market, on the other hand, has experienced a rather slower growth since Trump’s election, but the point is that it’s been growing, nonetheless.
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Tuesday, March 07, 2017
US Real Estate & Interest Rate Change – You’ve Been Warned! / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Is this the moment which could spark a stock market sell-off?
Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen, in a speech given in Chicago, last Friday, March 3rd, 2017, suggested that the FED will likely resume raising interest rates later this month.
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Thursday, March 02, 2017
US Real Estate May Never Be the Same Again / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Harry_Dent
I expected Japan’s 67% drop in residential real estate to rebound substantially, even with its smaller, but still substantial millennial generation. But that hasn’t happened. So, I went digging to find out what was going on.I’ll admit that this had me stumped for a while… until I began to understand that real estate was different than other consumer sectors of spending. It’s obviously not a consumable like food or clothing. But it’s not like a durable product either, like cars and washing machines. Real estate, with the exception of natural disasters or human insanity (arson, wars, etc.), tends to last forever.
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Wednesday, February 01, 2017
Interesting US Real Estate Market Trends That Will Appear In 2017 / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Boris_Dzhingarov
2016 saw a really surprising twist in the US as Donald Trump won the presidential race. This in itself is a guarantee that the market will see different changes, given that Trump is a real estate magnate. Although associated created controversy affects various parts of US economy, the real estate market is expected to continue its upwards trend started in 2016.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, January 09, 2017
Four Major Trends to Expect from the U.S. Housing Market in 2017 / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Nicholas_Kitonyi
2017 is already off to an interesting start in the global real estate market and the forces of demand and supply are building up momentum that will determine the pace of the markets this year. In the UK, home prices ended up 7.2% in 2016 in contrast to the prevailing fears that the UK housing market will suffer a post-Brexit crash after London recorded weakness in house prices. Now, many housing market analysts think that the UK housing market has survived the worst ; hence, they believe that 2017 could be a bullish year in the real estate markets.
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Saturday, December 17, 2016
US Housing Starts Dive 18.7 Percent as Mortgage Interest Rates Soar / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Mike_Shedlock
The often volatile housing starts numbers took another dive this report, down 18.7% in November according to the Census Bureau New Residential Construction report for November 2016.
Thursday, December 08, 2016
UK Housing Market Panic Buying Accelerates House Price Inflation / News_Letter / US Housing
By: NewsLetter
The Market Oracle Newsletter8th April, 2016 Issue # 10 Vol. 10
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Thursday, December 08, 2016
U.S. House Prices Forecast 2016, Crash or Continuing Housing Bull Market? / News_Letter / US Housing
By: NewsLetter
The Market Oracle Newsletter14th Mar, 2016 Issue # 7 Vol. 10
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Sunday, October 09, 2016
US Housing Market Bubble II – It’s Happening Again! / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Andy_Sutton
This will be a bit different of a piece because we are not reporting on something that has already happened; we’re dealing with something that is ongoing and developing. Graham will handle roughly the first half of the article, then Andy will handle the second. Please bear with us as we try to break this editorial into two distinct pieces. You’ll understand as you read it why we chose to handle this in such a fashion.
Since everything in the blogosphere goes by what is officially declared by who, so forth, and so on, ditto, ditto, etc, etc, we are officially declaring there is yet ANOTHER bubble – this one in housing. Again. Perhaps ‘still’ is the proper word rather than ‘again since the first one never really was totally washed out of the system. As an addendum to our very well-received ‘American Economics’ piece, we’ll add a corollary: binges are good, purges are not to be tolerated unless absolutely necessary. If a purge becomes necessary, it will be only enough to give the Proletariat the idea that the problem is actually gone. A purge will never last longer than is absolutely necessary since that might affect consumer spending and the consumetariat’s voracious appetite for debt and financial self-mutilation.
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Saturday, August 20, 2016
Housing Bubble - The Marginal Buyer Holds The Pin That Pops Every Asset Bubble / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Adam_Taggart
A: Whatever the highest bidder is willing to pay for it.
Those of you who took an introductory Economics class in high school or college may remember learning that prices are set "at the margin". That's a fancy way to say that prices are set by the person (or people) willing to pay the most.
This person willing to pay top dollar is called the "marginal buyer". Most of us don't really think about him much, but he (or she) is very, very important.
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Wednesday, August 10, 2016
Preparing Yourself for US Housing Market Bubble 2.0 / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Rodney_Johnson
Waiting out Bubble 1.0
I moved to Florida in 2005, just before the housing bubble peaked. Believing that prices couldn’t remain high, we bought a smaller home than we otherwise would have. Renting would’ve been nice, but we couldn’t find a rental in a school district we liked.
Home prices marched higher for six months or so, and the S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index reached 206. Then things slowed down. By late 2006, it was obvious that the housing market had changed. We know what happened next.
Thursday, July 28, 2016
The State Of The Economy / Economics / US Housing
By: .....
If the economy was a game of bingo, we'd all be waiting for the 75 ball to get pulled. Things are going well - in some areas, at least - and it looks like things will continue to improve. Unfortunately, it also seems like we can't quite get back to that pre-2008 level of prosperity that we left so long ago. Something seems to be missing, and there are disagreements on what that might be. Waiting for that proverbial ball to get pulled is difficult, but it helps to know what to be on the lookout for. As always, though, there are multiple possibilities.
Thursday, July 14, 2016
US Housing Market Real Estate Mania Redux / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Clif_Droke
Among the biggest relative strength leaders in the U.S. broad market right now are the home builders and REITs. The U.S. real estate sector is heating up and is also beginning to attract “hot money” inflows from foreign investors looking for a profitable safe haven. Real estate is building a measure of momentum not seen since before the 2008 credit crash. As such, the question as to whether a renewed property market mania is underway is a timely one and will now be addressed.
Wednesday, June 29, 2016
The U.S. Housing Market Bubble Appears to Have Peaked! / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Harry_Dent
Two weeks ago, I wrote about an upcoming New York City condominium listing for $250 million. I mention this because, as I’ve explained before, it’s always the tallest buildings and priciest condos to get hit during major downturns.
Just look at the early 1930s and mid-1970s marking peak bubbles if you don’t believe me!
Wednesday, June 15, 2016
This Manhattan Condo’s $250 Million Price Tag Real Could Mean US Estate Bubble Is Ready to Pop / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Harry_Dent
I’ve been doing a lot of traveling lately. Our lease ran up at our home in Tampa many weeks ago, and my wife and I have been staying at several of our favorite spots up and down the east coast.We’re in San Juan now, but last month I got a look at this new “billionaire’s row” that’s popped up on the south side of Central Park in New York.
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Tuesday, June 07, 2016
US Housing Market - It Looks Like the Dumb Money’s at It Again / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Harry_Dent
New home sales just went up a staggering 16.6% in April.619,000 new homes were sold – the most since early 2008 just before the worst of the housing meltdown, and the highest rate of growth in 24 years.
So is this a sign that the economy is back on track?
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Monday, May 23, 2016
U.S. Housing Market Real Estate Bubble Part II / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Michael_Pento
It shouldn't be hard to understand that nearly 90 months of ZIRP has regenerated the equity and real estate bubbles that first pushed the global economy off a cliff back in 2007. In fact, the Fed's unprecedented foray with interest rate manipulation has caused these assets to become far more detached from underlying fundamentals than they were prior to the start of the Great Recession.
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Monday, May 02, 2016
US House Prices Outpacing Official Inflation Rate, Household Income / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: MISES
Ryan McMaken writes: This week, the latest numbers from the S&P/Case-Shiller index showed continued significant home price growth in most of the 20 cities within the survey. The cities with the most growth were found in the Western US and, to a lesser extent, the South:
Saturday, April 09, 2016
U.S. Real Estate & Fed, Systemic Risk is Rising Quickly / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Chris_Vermeulen
The Federal Debt:
The current amount The U.S. Government owes is over $19 trillion and therefore it is mathematically impossible to pay back. They will never be able to pay this back. Central bankers are in uncharted waters. They do not know how to create economic growth and fight deflation in some areas of the market. They do not know how to even return to a time of “normal” monetary policy. Their pretense of knowledge, of being able to effectively control currencies used by billions of people, is coming to an end.
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Wednesday, March 16, 2016
U.S. House Prices Forecast 2016 - Video / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The most recent release of US House prices data for December 2015 (Case Shiller 10 City Composite) continues to show little change at 197.21 against 197.40 of 4 months earlier which means that US house price inflation has spent virtually the whole of 2015 within a tight range of between +5% and +4%, which whilst stable is nevertheless a far cry from early 2014 that had house price inflation galloping ahead at near 14% per annum.
Monday, March 14, 2016
U.S. House Prices Forecast 2016, Crash or Continuing Housing Bull Market? / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The most recent release of US House prices data for December 2015 (Case Shiller 10 City Composite) continues to show little change at 197.21 against 197.40 of 4 months earlier which means that US house price inflation has spent virtually the whole of 2015 within a tight range of between +5% and +4%, which whilst stable is nevertheless a far cry from early 2014 that had house price inflation galloping ahead at near 14% per annum as illustrated by the below momentum graph.
Thursday, February 25, 2016
New U.S. Home Sales Unexpectedly Plunge 9.2%, Median House Prices Down 5.7% / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Mike_Shedlock
New Home Sales Report Dismal Many Ways
Today's new homes sales report was a disaster. Sales fell 9.2% overall, sales in the west plunged 32%, the median price fell 5.7%, and supply rose to 5.8% from 5.1%.
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Wednesday, February 24, 2016
U.S. Housing Market at the Edge of Another Huge Cliff? / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: EWI
Time and again, we've said that financial markets do what they do despite the Federal Reserve.
When the central bank raised its key rate in December for the first time since 2006, many thought that would translate into higher mortgage rates.
Instead, mortgage rates are nearly as low as they've ever been. A Feb. 12 CNBC headline reads:
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Tuesday, January 05, 2016
Government 'Processing Error' Sinks U.S. Housing Market Reports for Entire Year / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Mike_Shedlock
Huge "Processing Error" in Government Housing Data
When I saw some of the upwardly revised GDP estimates in 2015 I thought they were too good to be true, and that downward revisions were coming.
I had almost given up on that idea, but I was correct all along.
Last month, construction spending was reported to be up 1%. Today we see it was only 0.3%. Economists, being perpetual optimists, came up with a consensus estimate for this month of +0.7% The actual result is -0.4%, over a full percentage point below the consensus and nearly a pull point lower than the lowest estimate of +0.5%.
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Wednesday, December 30, 2015
China Impending Real Estate Housing Market Crash / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Harry_Dent
We woke up this morning to find oil prices weighing on the market… again… with China suffering the biggest losses. Oil prices have already kept stocks at bay in the best time of the year.
Funny how this “Santa Claus” rally that I predicted wouldn’t happen this year, didn’t. The last time was in 2007 and 2008 – the last years the stock market crashed.
Tuesday, December 22, 2015
U.S. Housing Market Warning - Don’t Sit On Your Real Estate! / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Harry_Dent
I suppose you could say we have World War II to thank.Upon returning from the war, soldiers had their GI benefits to enjoy and a deep-seated desire to start a family. And so was born (quite literally) the baby boom, and an accompanying surge in home buying.
Out of the ashes of destruction arose an American middle class and the first generation able to more broadly buy homes with long-term mortgages.
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Tuesday, December 08, 2015
The U.S. Housing Market Needs to Watch Out For China! / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Harry_Dent
The New York Times ran an article on Sunday talking about how the Chinese invasion of U.S. real estate is only expanding.They aren’t just buying condos in Manhattan or McMansions in Silicon Valley – they’re buying properties in new developments in places like Plano, TX, just north of Dallas.
In the market for homes over $1 million, the Chinese make up one out of every 14 buyers – which is huge. In the top tier markets in San Francisco, Orange County or Manhattan, they can be 50% or more!
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Saturday, October 10, 2015
A Bifurcated U.S. Housing Market, How Much Longer Can Unaffordable Housing Prices Last? / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Adam_Taggart
Charles Hugh Smith writes: Markets discover price via supply and demand: Big demand + limited supply = rising prices. Abundant supply + sagging demand = declining prices.
Eventually, prices rise to a level that is unaffordable to the majority of potential buyers, with demand coming only from the wealthy. That’s the story of housing in New York City, the San Francisco Bay Area and other desirable locales that are currently magnets for global capital.
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Friday, September 25, 2015
U.S. Housing Market Two Outs in The Bottom of The Ninth / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: James_Quinn
The housing market peaked in 2005 and proceeded to crash over the next five years, with existing home sales falling 50%, new home sales falling 75%, and national home prices falling 30%. A funny thing happened after the peak. Wall Street banks accelerated the issuance of subprime mortgages to hyper-speed. The executives of these banks knew housing had peaked, but insatiable greed consumed them as they purposely doled out billions in no-doc liar loans as a necessary ingredient in their CDOs of mass destruction.
Friday, September 18, 2015
U.S. Housing Market May be About to Implode -- Again / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: EWI
Before I get into the "why," know that the residential real estate market never fully recovered.
Annualized new home sales this past July stood at 507,000, vs. the July 2005 peak of 1.39 million. The chart and commentary from the August Elliott Wave Theorist offer:
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Sunday, September 06, 2015
How to Buy Houses for 25% Below Market Value / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: DailyWealth
Dr. Steve Sjuggerud writes: "What's your top idea right now, Steve? What are you doing with your own money?"
The answer is simple: U.S. real estate.
Right now, I have a greater percentage of my net worth invested in the U.S. residential property market than in any other asset class – by far.
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Saturday, August 08, 2015
Despite Low Interest Rates, U.S. Housing Market Rebound is Weak / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: EWI
Elliott Wave International's Chief Market Analyst talks about the outlook for the U.S. housing market
A June 28 headline on CNBC reads, "Homeownership rate drops to 63.4%, lowest since 1967." The report goes on to say "The number of occupied housing units grew, but all on the renter side."
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Wednesday, July 29, 2015
U.S. Home Sales Market Is Dead – This Chart Proves It / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: ...
MoneyMorning.com
Lee Adler writes: The seasonally adjusted (SA) headline number for the monthly-error-times-12-annualized version of new home sales in June was 482,000.
Wall Street analysts had guessed that the number would be 550,000. The Wall Street Journal went into apoplectic excuse-making mode, almost foaming at the mouth to try to find pundits to explain away the bad number.
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Wednesday, July 29, 2015
The Gold - U.S. House Prices Ratio As A Valuation Indicator / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Dan_Amerman
The Gold/Housing ratio is a quite useful measure for evaluating relative values between real estate and gold, and also has an interesting historical track record for identifying turning points in long-term gold price trends. In light of the commodities rout occurring in the summer of 2015, and the continuing strength in housing – it is worthwhile revisiting this basic measure, because the results aren't at all what most people likely think they are.
Thursday, July 23, 2015
5 ways in which Real Estate has changed in the US in the last decade / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Submissions
Peter Scully writes: Following a ten year review of the real estate market in the United States, it is clear to see that things have changed a lot. Ten years is a long time but in that period there is a huge difference, and it may be surprising to hear that it is not all related to finance.
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Thursday, July 02, 2015
Inflation Is Lurking, but This Asset Can Protect You / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: ...
MoneyMorning.com Peter Krauth writes:While the investing world is focused on Greece, events unfolding right now in Africa offer another important cautionary tale.
Thanks to reckless political and economic mismanagement, Zimbabwe holds clues to the future of other nations – like ours.
Granted, this failed state's policies have been more egregious than those perpetrated by the U.S. government against its people. Nonetheless, some of the outcomes could be similar. And I'm going to tell you one way to protect yourself.
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Wednesday, June 24, 2015
U.S. Housing Market Recovery? Nah, It’s Just Spiking Mortgage Rates / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: John_Rubino
This morning saw two very strong housing reports:
Tuesday, June 09, 2015
It’s All a Lie: The Truth about U.S. Housing Market Recovery / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Harry_Dent
Most commentary on the housing markets — from the industry, from analysts, from the media — all give the impression that the housing crisis is well behind us. One economist in U.S. News & World Report highlighted the slight uptake in new single-family homes this year as fodder for economic growth. So is a $4.95 purchase at Ben & Jerry’s! Like we discussed last week, the increase in new home sales isn't worth a hoot!
Monday, June 08, 2015
US Housing Market Bull, Bear or Crash Ahead? / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
U.S. House prices as according to many analysts are apparently continuing to defy gravity, which is now for the third year as the latest data for March 2015 has US house prices rising by 0.8% on the month on the Case Shiller 10 city composite index. Which nevertheless did give some hope to the doom merchants as momentum has plunged or crashed as many like to prefer from a 14% inflation rate of a year go to a sub 5% inflation rate. Find out what this means for US house prices into 2016.
Monday, June 08, 2015
New U.S. Housing Market Crisis in the Making? What's the Solution? / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Mike_Shedlock
Home ownership rates are sinking and demographics are part of the reason. But does that constitute a new housing crisis?
Friday, June 05, 2015
U.S. Houses Prices Bull, Bear or Crash Ahead Into 2016? / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The most recent release for US House prices data for March 2015 (Case Shiller 10 City Composite) which despite rising by 0.8% on the month nevertheless continues to maintain a trend for the erosion of annual pace for house price inflation that remains below 5%, far lower than that of a year ago when US house prices were galloping ahead at near 14% per annum as illustrated by the momentum graph.
Thursday, June 04, 2015
The Fed's Failure: U.S. New Home Sales Back to 1960s Levels / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Harry_Dent
By Rodney Johnson : A problem with most humans is that we’re really bad at letting go of what happened yesterday. So too with nations. When estimating potential threats, it’s easy for leaders to adapt to whatever happened in the latest conflict, developing their military accordingly.Think of the U.S. after World War II. We built up land forces across Europe to guard against an invasion by the U.S.S.R. Later on in Vietnam we dove into jungle warfare, where tanks and mass forces were less useful. We were set up to fight the last war, not the next one.
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Thursday, May 28, 2015
US Housing Market - Something Smells Fishy / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: James_Quinn
It’s always interesting to see a long term chart that reflects your real life experiences. I bought my first home in 1990. It was a small townhouse and I paid $100k, put 10% down, and obtained a 9.875% mortgage. I was thrilled to get under 10%. Those were different times, when you bought a home as a place to live. We had our first kid in 1993 and started looking for a single family home. We stopped because our townhouse had declined in value to $85k, so I couldn’t afford to sell. In 1995 I convinced my employer to rent my townhouse, as they were already renting multiple townhouses for all the foreigners doing short term assignments in the U.S. We bought a single family home in 1995 with the sole purpose of having a decent place to raise a family that was within 20 minutes of my job.
Sunday, May 24, 2015
Why Do We Celebrate Rising U.S. House Prices? / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: MISES
Ryan McMaken writes: In recent years, home price indices have seemed to proliferate. Case-Shiller, of course, has been around for a long time, but over the past decade, additional measures have been marketed aggressively by Trulia, CoreLogic, and Zillow, just to name a few.
Measuring home prices has taken on an urgency beyond the real estate industry because for many, home price growth has become something of an indicator of the economy as a whole. If home prices are going up, it is assumed, “the economy” must be doing well. Indeed, we are encouraged to relax when home prices are increasing or holding steady, and we’re supposed to become concerned if home prices are going down.
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Wednesday, May 20, 2015
U.S. Housing Market Strong Numbers in Perspective / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Mike_Shedlock
Following today's better than expected housing numbers (See Housing Starts and Permits Surge Most in Seven Years) Doug Short at Advisor Perspectives pinged me with these comments.
Read full article... Read full article...Mish - I started tracking these for the first time today - complete historical data. These are two of the noisiest series of all time.
Wednesday, May 06, 2015
U.S. Government Using Subprime Mortgages To Pump Housing Market Recovery / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: James_Quinn
Taxpayers Will Pay Again - It seems hard to believe, but your government is purposely recreating the mortgage debacle of 2007 and putting you on the hook for the billions in losses coming down the road. In their frantic effort to generate the appearance of economic recovery they are willing to gamble with taxpayer’s money while luring unsuspecting blue collar folks into buying houses they can’t afford. During the previous housing bubble, greedy Wall Street bankers, deceitful mortgage brokers, and corrupt rating agencies colluded to commit the greatest control fraud in the history of mankind. This time it is your government, aided and abetted by the Federal Reserve, that is actively promoting the lending of money to people incapable of paying it back. And again, you the taxpayer will be on the hook when it predictably blows up.
Friday, April 17, 2015
U.S. House Building Off to Slow Start in 2015; Starts Miss Expectations / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Mike_Shedlock
Add home building to the list of disappointing economic reports.
The Bloomberg Consensus for seasonally adjusted starts was for 1.04 million. Instead we saw .926 million.
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Monday, March 30, 2015
Don’t Celebrate the U.S. Housing Market Recovery Yet / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Money_Morning
Shah Gilani writes: When I moved to Sarasota, Fla., in 1999, I was invited by a prominent local to an “un-wedding wedding” to make new friends in town. I accepted the invitation and, not wanting to display my ignorance, avoided asking the burning question: “What’s an un-wedding wedding?”
Inevitably, I found out what an un-wedding wedding is. It’s a full-blown wedding, only the host isn’t actually getting married. He or she wants to get married but isn’t – and goes through the motions anyway.
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Friday, March 27, 2015
The Hard-Earned Truth About Recreational Real Estate / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: DailyWealth
Peter Churchouse writes:
A group of us were having lunch on my recent ski trip to the French Alps.
One of the guys leaned across the table and showed me some photos on his iPhone.
The images showed a stunning piece of property. A gorgeous chalet set amongst the trees and snow of a mountain resort in western Canada. A very seductive piece of real estate.
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Thursday, March 26, 2015
The U.S. Housing Market Recovery Is Fabricated Optimism / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Money_Morning
When I moved to Sarasota in 1999 I was invited by a prominent local to an "un-wedding wedding" to make new friends in town. I accepted the invitation and, not wanting to display my ignorance, avoided asking the burning question, "What's an un-wedding wedding?"
Inevitably I found out what an un-wedding wedding is. It's a full-blown wedding, only the host isn't actually getting married. They want to get married but aren't, and go through the motions anyway.
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Wednesday, March 18, 2015
The Top Places in Florida to Invest in Real Estate Property / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Submissions
Peter Scully submits: For those who know the real estate market in Florida they will be aware that the prices vary across the state. The prices range from $37.36 per square foot in Kenneth City to $546.77 per square foot in Key Biscayne.
However, if you plan to invest and get out quickly whilst making a profit then Hialeah Gardens, Lauderdale-by-the-Sea and Atlantis are the places to choose. For those who want a strong investment with a beachfront then Miami-Fort Lauderdale is the popular choice but if you are planning on making an investment for the long run then the majority of the Florida housing market can work well.
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Tuesday, March 03, 2015
The Secret Behind My Hedge Fund Trade on U.S. Housing Market / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Money_Morning
Shah Gilani writes: Suppose I’m the manager of a giant hedge fund. Suppose I’m soliciting you to come into my fund with a few billion of your $100 billion net worth.
Suppose we’re good friends.
You want to come in because you trust me and you know I know how to make money.
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Friday, February 13, 2015
Buying a Home the Most Valuable Tax "Loophole" Available Today / ElectionOracle / US Housing
By: DailyWealth
Buying a Home the Most Valuable Tax "Loophole" Available Today
Brett Eversole writes: The government seems to spend its time finding ways to increase taxes...
In 2013, income taxes for America's top earners increased. And in last month's State of the Union address, President Obama proposed capital gains tax increases among other changes.
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Tuesday, February 03, 2015
Goodbye Money Laundering: The Slide in Luxury U.S. Real Estate Market / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Harry_Dent
Couldn’t happen to a nicer group of people: ultra-rich criminals, drug dealers, despots and the mafia globally. I’m being sarcastic, of course.
It seems the greatest scheme for international money laundering is rapidly coming to an end and it couldn’t come soon enough. Unfortunately, this will have some negative effects on real estate in the super-expensive cities across the county because buying of high-priced condos for cash in places like New York, Miami, L.A. and San Francisco is going to come to a screeching halt.
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Tuesday, January 27, 2015
If You Picked Up a Cheap Mortgage Today, Thank a Taxpayer / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Money_Morning
Shah Gilani writes: If you’re looking for a cheap mortgage to buy a new home, today should be a good day.
That’s because today the 50-basis point premium cut from the Federal Housing Administration (FHA) went into effect.
So with practically nothing down, unless you consider 3.5% down something, you can get a cheap loan through the FHA, one of those government agencies that was supposed to be getting out of that business.
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Sunday, January 18, 2015
The True Cost of the U.S. Homeownership Obsession / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: MISES
Ryan McMaken writes: In 2014, the US homeownership rate fell below 65 percent, which means it’s back to where it was during the 1970s and much of the 1990s. Various federal agencies have long made homeownership a priority, and have introduced a bevy of government and quasi-government programs including the GSEs like Fannie Mae, FHA-insured loans, VA-insured loans, the Bush administration’s “American Dream Downpayment Initiative” and, of course central bank meddling to keep interest rates nice and low for the mortgage markets.
Friday, January 16, 2015
U.S. Housing Market Bubble 2.0 Meet the Pin / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: James_Quinn
The 30 Year U.S. Treasury bond yield hit 2.35% yesterday. That is the lowest rate in U.S. history for the 30 Year Treasury. During the deepest darkest depths of the recession in March 2009, after the stock market had fallen over 50%, the yield was 3.5%. One year ago it was yielding 4.0%. Long term interest rates are not controlled by Yellen. They reflect the economic prospects of the country. When they are rising it means the economy is doing well. When they are plummeting to all time lows, the economy is either in recession or headed into recession. Take your pick. No amount of government data manipulation, feel good propaganda spewed by the captured mainstream media, or Ivy League educated Wall Street economist doublespeak, can change the fact this economy is in the dumper and headed much lower. The Greater Depression is resuming its downward march toward inevitable war.
Monday, January 12, 2015
U.S. Housing Market Optimism Is Back Up to 2006 Levels... Should You Worry? / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Money_Morning
Dr. Steve Sjuggerud writes: Housing optimism is back up to 2006 levels...
Should we worry about a 2006-style bust?
After all, 2006 was "the beginning of the end" in U.S. housing. And it kicked off the worst housing bear market of our lifetimes.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, December 02, 2014
Tiny Houses May Signal a Big Market Change / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: MISES
Jonathan Newman writes: The flowering of the tiny house movement is due in large part to the most recent boom-bust cycle, which left many homeowners wondering if mountain-sized homes are worth equally sized debt or a risky gamble on future housing prices. For some, this meant moving into a house that could be smaller than their previous house’s bathroom.
Although definitions vary for what “tiny” means — from the hardcore enthusiasts to the more inclusive tiny-housers — most agree that any residence smaller than 1,000 square feet fits the bill (but most are less than 500 square feet). And speaking of the bill, such dwellings can range anywhere from $10k to $50k, depending on the size and amenities, and they can enjoy total monthly utilities in the double digits.
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Tuesday, November 18, 2014
Too Difficult to Get a U.S. Home Loan / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Bloomberg
HUD Secretary Julian Castro spoke with Bloomberg TV's Peter Cook about the first positive balance for the Federal Housing Administration's mortgage-insurance fund in two years and the outlook for an overhaul of federal housing-finance rules.
Castro detailed the improving financial picture for the Federal Housing Administration, stating the government's mortgage insurance fund is "back in the black" for the time in two years: "Is it now in positive territory. In fact, over the last two years it's seen an increase of $21 billion in its value. And the underlying fundamentals of the portfolio of the fund are stronger than they have been in quite a while."
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Wednesday, November 05, 2014
U.S. Housing Market San Francisco at Critical Mass / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Harry_Dent
The website, zerohedge.com, recently reported on an interesting indicator that makes perfect sense, but it’s one that I hadn’t seen before.
They reported that the San Francisco Case-Shiller year-over-year home price index is the primary real estate market that foreshadows when the stock market or any other major bubble will crash. In other words, it’s the bubble that best forecasts other bubbles bursting.
The reason that San Francisco is unique is that it’s very bubbly from a very limited supply… it reflects both Silicon Valley and the tech bubble… and it also reflects the “mega” bubble that is China.
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Thursday, October 30, 2014
US Mortgages, Risky Bisiness "Easy Money" / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Mike_Whitney
Here we go again.
Last week, the country’s biggest mortgage lenders scored a couple of key victories that will allow them to ease lending standards, crank out more toxic assets, and inflate another housing bubble. Here’s what’s going on.
On Monday, the head of the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA), Mel Watt, announced that Fannie and Freddie would slash the minimum down-payment requirement on mortgages from 5 percent to 3 percent while making loans more available to people with spotty credit. If this all sounds hauntingly familiar, it should. It was less than 7 years ago that shoddy lending practices blew up the financial system precipitating the deepest slump since the Great Depression. Now Watt wants to repeat that catastrophe by pumping up another credit bubble. Here’s the story from the Washington Post:
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Tuesday, October 28, 2014
Evidence of New U.S. Housing Market Real Estate Bust Starting to Appear / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: EWI
Editor's note: With permission, the following article was adapted from the October 2014 issue of The Elliott Wave Financial Forecast, a publication of Elliott Wave International, the world's largest market forecasting firm. You may review an extended version of the article for free here.
In February, The Elliott Wave Financial Forecast discussed the great boom in New York City's residential real estate and its keen resemblance to what happened in 1929, when the demand for luxury housing also spiked to previously unseen heights. At 133 East 80th Street, we found this plaque commemorating the earlier era's brick-and-mortar monuments to a Supercycle degree peak in social mood.
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Friday, October 24, 2014
Meet the New U.S. Housing Market Mortgage Rules – They’re the Same as the Old Ones / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Money_Morning
Shah Gilani writes: And you thought the federal government was getting out of the mortgage guaranteeing and backstopping business.
In fact, the feds are not only not getting out of the mortgage business, but they’re already blowing up the next bubble.
As a result, the Great Recession – spawned by the credit crisis, easy-money mortgages and low interest rates – is going to make a comeback.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, October 23, 2014
Five U.S. Housing Market Warning Signs Point to Real Estate Market Downturn / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: John_Mauldin
By Tony Sagami
Investing is about piecing together different bits of information into an illustrative picture—sort of a Wall Street version of the connect-the-dots game we played in kindergarten.
That’s why the headline below from Bloomberg made my investment antennae stand up and motivated me to look for either confirmation that the real estate market was indeed slowing down or contrary evidence to explain if the weak summer sales numbers were just a temporary aberration.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, October 22, 2014
Evidence of Another Even More Sweeping U.S. Housing Market Bust Already Starting to Appear / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: EWI
Editor's note: With permission, the following article was adapted from the October 2014 issue of The Elliott Wave Financial Forecast, a publication of Elliott Wave International, the world's largest market forecasting firm. You may review an extended version of the article for free here.
In February, The Elliott Wave Financial Forecast discussed the great boom in New York City's residential real estate and its keen resemblance to what happened in 1929, when the demand for luxury housing also spiked to previously unseen heights. At 133 East 80th Street, we found this plaque commemorating the earlier era's brick-and-mortar monuments to a Supercycle degree peak in social mood.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, October 13, 2014
The U.S. Housing Market Recovery is a Lie... / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Money_Morning
Shah Gilani writes: Ben Bernanke began his tenure as Chairman of the Federal Reserve Board just as the housing bubble was peaking in February 2006.
He exited the post in February of this year after supposedly shepherding the country out of the Great Recession the mortgage crisis spawned.
He recently admitted the housing recovery is hitting a wall.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, October 09, 2014
Second-Richest Man Says Mortgages Now a "No Brainer" / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: DailyWealth
Dr. Steve Sjuggerud writes: Warren Buffett is the second-richest man in America today, behind Bill Gates. (He was the richest man in the world in 2008.)
He made his fortune through the financial markets. Buffett, to me, is the greatest financial mind of our time – if not ever.
Right now, Mr. Buffett says to get a fixed mortgage... Specifically, he calls it a "no brainer" today...
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, October 04, 2014
U.S. Housing Bull Market Over? House Prices Trend Forecast Current State / News_Letter / US Housing
By: NewsLetter
The Market Oracle NewsletterAugust 23rd, 2014 Issue # 16 Vol. 8
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Friday, October 03, 2014
The Diversity of the Current US Housing Market / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Boris_Dzhingarov
Though greatly improved from the staggering declines of the past decade, the US housing market still tends to undervalue homes by an average estimated 3%. This is the broad view, but America is an enormous country with multiple submarkets. Comparing Metropolitan home sales to the sale of homes in less concentrated areas illuminates the fact that US Housing is not one market, but several.
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Tuesday, September 23, 2014
Why Isn’t U.S. Housing Market A Bubble? / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: John_Rubino
In his book The Postcatastrophe Economy, iTulip’s Eric Janszen notes that financial bubbles don’t repeat. That is, yesterday’s bubble is never tomorrow’s because hot money likes to chase the next big thing, not the last big thing. Which explains how US equities, government bonds, fine art, and trophy properties like London penthouses can all be sizzling while US houses, the epicenter of the previous decade’s financial orgy, just sit there.
Saturday, September 20, 2014
Can the U.S. Economy Withstand Another Housing Market Breakdown? / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Sy_Harding
With the three fascinations of the week, the Fed’s FOMC statement, the separation vote in Scotland, and the Alibaba IPO, now history, will investors re-focus on the economy?
Given what the Fed actually said in its statement, and some recent economic reports, it might be a good idea.
Investors were anxious to judge how long the Fed will leave interest rates at low levels by whether or not it left the words “for a considerable time” in its FOMC statement.
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Sunday, August 31, 2014
U.S. House Prices to Soar AFTER the Fed Raises Rates / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: DailyWealth
Dr Steve Sjuggerud writes:"Steve, you know the housing boom will end when the Fed raises interest rates, right?"
Oh really? What makes you so sure about that?
"Steve, you know that mortgage rates are going up, right? And you know that when mortgage rates rise, house prices will fall – or at least stop going up – right?"
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, August 30, 2014
Peter Schiff U.S. Housing Market, House Prices Bubble Warning / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Peter Schiff recently made another appearance on RT News, once more warning that the U.S. Housing market is a bubble primed to burst as speculator investors will be forced to sell into a market without any buyers.
"I think this is a bubble.
I think speculative buyers are leaving the market ands there is no one to fill the void because the real buyers are absent and if you look at the recent home statistics the percentage of homes bought by first time buyers is at a record low and in fact home ownership amongst individuals is at generational lows so prices have to come down dramatically from here before real buyers can actually afford to buy all the properties that have been bought by speculators, and at some point the speculators if they cannot collect enough rent to cover the cost of ownership they are going to be selling these properties, and look out below because when they put these properties up for sale, again there are no buyers anywhere near the current prices."
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Friday, August 29, 2014
US House Prices Bull Market Over? Trend Forecast Video / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Slowing US house price inflation from a peak of 14% for data released in January this year to now 9% is prompting many housing market analysts to conclude that the US housing bull market may already be over, such as Professor Robert Shiller who recently expressed surprise at the strong rise in US house prices and stating that it is overvalued along with stocks and bonds.
Saturday, August 23, 2014
U.S. Housing Bull Market Over? House Prices Trend Forecast Current State / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Despite U.S. house prices surging higher in July by 1.1% (May data) after near flat lining for several months, the mainstream pundits continue to issue warnings of its unsustainability for as is always the case there are ample snippets of data out there to take either a positive or negative point of view and since fear tends to sell more copy, so that is where approx 80% of the mainstream media's focus lies.
Friday, July 25, 2014
Tap in to Your Inner Feminist-Real Estate Mogul Without Holding Real Property / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Don_Miller
The new book titled #GIRLBOSS by Sophia Amoruso—reformed petty thief and CEO of a $100 million online clothing store—is the latest “live and work as I do if you want to succeed” book from a string of brand-building female executives. Facebook COO Sheryl Sandberg has women “leaning in,” while Arianna Huffington’s sleep crusade marches on in her latest book, Thrive. Now, I should confess that I haven’t actually read any of these books; one of my colleagues gave me the recap. However, I have had another female executive on my mind: Ms. C.
Friday, July 18, 2014
U.S. Housing Market in Trouble Again - It’s 2009 All Over Again / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Money_Morning
Shah Gilani writes: Housing is in trouble… again.
As I write this, several housing stocks I recommended my Short Side Fortunes subscribers get in on are down fairly sizeably today. One stock is trading right now at $39.85. If it breaks below $38, that’s bad news. Another is trading at $23.75. If it breaks below $23, that’s bad news. And yet another is trading at $31.05. If it breaks below $30, that’s bad news.
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Wednesday, July 16, 2014
U.S. Housing Market Ponzi Scheme Losses: American Homeowners Battling Wall Street / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Ellen_Brown
Did the Other Shoe Just Drop? Black Rock and PIMCO Sue Banks for $250 Billion
For years, homeowners have been battling Wall Street in an attempt to recover some portion of their massive losses from the housing Ponzi scheme. But progress has been slow, as they have been outgunned and out-spent by the banking titans.
Tuesday, July 08, 2014
Ahead of Looming U.S. Housing Market Foreclosure Crisis, Local Governments Are Stepping In / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Ellen_Brown
Mortgage debt overhang from the housing bust has meant lack of middle-class spending power and consumer demand, preventing the economy from growing. The problem might be fixed by a new approach from the Fed. But if the Fed won’t act, counties will, as seen in the latest developments on eminent domain and litigation over Mortgage Electronic Registration Systems (MERS).
Tuesday, June 24, 2014
U.S. Economic Recovery™ In One Graph / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Jesse
"Gentlemen! I too have been a close observer of the doings of the Bank of the United States. I have had men watching you for a long time, and am convinced that you have used the funds of the bank to speculate in the breadstuffs of the country.
When you won, you divided the profits amongst you, and when you lost, you charged it to the bank.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, June 09, 2014
How to Profit from "Margin Call" on American Homeowners / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Money_Morning
Shah Gilani writes: Get ready. There's more trouble ahead for home buyers, home builders, and especially homeowners who took out home-equity lines of credit before the housing crisis. Those heydays have turned into haymakers.
What's already started to happen might not only knock out the formerly aspiring but now petering-out housing recovery, but also might knock the already weak economy to the ground.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, June 03, 2014
US Housing Market's Darkening Data, Get Ready for Falling House Prices / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Dr_Martenson
Brian Pretti writes: When looking at residential real estate, we often tend to focus almost solely on recent price movements in assessing the health of the housing market at any point in time. But as both homeowners and income-earners in the larger economy, of which the housing market is an important component, to really understand what's going on, we need clarity into the larger cycle driving those price movements.
The more we look at today's data, the more it looks like that we are in a new type of pricing cycle -- one that homeowners and housing investors have no prior experience with.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, June 02, 2014
Beware the Latest U.S. Mortgage Market Trap / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Money_Morning
Shah Gilani writes: Get ready. There’s more trouble ahead for home buyers, home builders, and especially homeowners who took out home-equity lines of credit before the housing crisis. Those heydays have turned into haymakers.
What’s already started to happen might not only knock out the formerly aspiring but now petering-out housing recovery, but also might knock the already weak economy to the ground.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, May 30, 2014
The Next Trillion-Dollar U.S. Mortgage Market Meltdown May Be Coming / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Money_Morning
Shah Gilani writes: The fourth securitization deal of big investor-owned single-family homes for rent is here.
Is this just another Wall Street gamble that will wreck the economy again, or is this time different?
You be the judge.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, May 22, 2014
How to Safeguard Your Portfolio from the Coming U.S. Housing Market Crisis / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: DailyGainsLetter
George Leong writes: The housing market has enjoyed a boom that’s lasted several years as prices have ratcheted upward toward the 2008 highs, prior to the subprime mortgage meltdown. Now, while the housing market has been fairly steady with above-average price appreciation potential in homebuilder stocks, I still think we could be headed for some issues on the horizon.
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Wednesday, May 21, 2014
U.S. Home Owners Drowning in the American Dream / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Raul_I_Meijer
According to a new Zillow report, 40% of all US mortgage holders can’t afford to sell their homes. That is 20 million Americans homeowners, 10 million who are downright underwater and another 10 million who are so close to being there that they don’t have the money to cover the cost of selling. And those are still numbers across the spectrum; things are far towards the bottom. ’30% of homes in the bottom price tier are in negative equity, while 18.1% of homes in the middle tier and 10.7% in the top tier are underwater’. If we assume that at the bottom, like across the spectrum, as many people are close to being submerged as those who already are, that would mean 60% of bottom tier borrowers are too poor to sell their homes (i.e. have less than 20% equity).
Saturday, May 17, 2014
U.S. Homeowners Become Renters - Welcome to the Third World America / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: John_Rubino
This morning’s housing report was huge. As one representative headline put it: “Housing starts up sharply; permits highest since 2008″.
Dig just a little deeper and it’s still huge, though in a different way. Turns out that all the increase was in apartment building, while single family homes — the linchpin of what used to be thought of as the American Dream — actually fell yet again. Here’s a brief but on-point analysis from the New York Times:
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Wednesday, May 14, 2014
Are Homebuilder Stocks a Buy Ahead of the Spring? / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Investment_U
David Becker writes: Homebuilding stocks are down nearly 5% so far in 2014, but as spring approaches, an increase in sales could just be the remedy these shares need. Unfortunately, homebuilders generally underperform in May and June, and higher housing prices and recent disappointing sales data could further erode the prices of homebuilder stocks.
Tuesday, May 13, 2014
The Mortgage Is Due for Fannie and Freddie / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Money_Morning
Shah Gilani writes: You can call it a bailout, a rakeover – I mean, takeover – or socialism for cash. It’s all that and more.
But, whatever you call it, it’s not going to last.
The $187.5 billion bailout of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac back in 2008 was absolutely necessary. Before you tell me I’m crazy, let me tell you why…
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Thursday, May 08, 2014
Profitable Investment Opportunities in a Fragile U.S. Housing Market / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: DailyGainsLetter
George Leong writes: The housing market continues to hold. But there are some warning signs. Famed investor Warren Buffett suggested the housing market was overvalued and due for an adjustment.
Now, while there are some indications of an overhyped housing market, I’m not convinced it’s bubble-like quite yet. But be warned: mortgage rates and interest rates are heading higher. This means it will become more expensive to finance mortgages going forward.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, April 28, 2014
Why U.S. Housing Market Has Stalled — And Why Everything Else Will Follow / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: John_Rubino
It’s not easy being a mainstream economist. You spend your life building models that become your professional identity. And when those models fail to describe and predict reality, you’re left wondering about the meaning of it all.
The latest case in point is US housing. Keynesian economic models say that if you lower mortgage rates you get more houses bought, sold and built. A nice, simple piece of cause and effect. But today’s mortgage rates are at levels that would have incited a buying frenzy a generation ago, employment is rising — and home sales, home building and mortgage originations are all flat-lining.
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Sunday, April 27, 2014
US Housing Market Is Down For The Count / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Raul_I_Meijer
Recent news, graphs and data confirm what we have long said would inevitably become clear: the entire global economy appears to have “functioned” through an orgy of refinancing, LBO and M&A lately. That is to say, zombie money has been enthusiastically slushed and re-slushed around to provide commissions, bonuses etc. to bankers and brokers, a process enabled by central bank and government policies in which large amounts of credit were thrown against the wall like so much Jello, hoping – but not demanding – that some would stick. Zero bound interest rates made this process all the more attractive, since it was crucial to lure mom and pop back in. But now, if our eyes don’t receive us, it is reaching its inherent limits. And that’s going to hurt something bad.
Wednesday, April 23, 2014
Fed Follies, U.S. Housing Market Fiasco / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: LewRockwell
So far we have experienced 7 million foreclosures. Beyond that there are still 9 million homeowners seriously underwater on their mortgages and there are millions more who are stranded in place because they don’t have enough positive equity to cover transactions costs and more stringent down payment requirements.
And that’s before the next downturn in housing prices—a development which will show up any day. In fact, another downward plunge is a positive certainty now that the buy-to-rent LBO speculators are rapidly pulling out of those “flash” bull markets in Arizona, California, Los Vegas, Florida and elsewhere. The latter were merely short-lived price eruptions which were an artifact of the Fed’s free money policies.
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Monday, March 31, 2014
How to Turn Disappointing U.S. Housing Market Data into Greater Returns / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: DailyGainsLetter
John Paul Whitefoot writes: Since the beginning of 2012, the U.S. housing market has been considered one of the bright spots in an otherwise uneven economic environment. Between 2007 and the end of 2011, the U.S. housing market fell 33%—since then, it has rebounded, climbing roughly 22%.
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Thursday, March 27, 2014
Winding Down Fannie and Freddie the Economic Scam of the Century / Politics / US Housing
By: Mike_Whitney
The leaders of the U.S. Senate Banking Committee, Sen. Tim Johnson (D., S.D.) and Sen. Mike Crapo (R., Idaho), released a draft bill on Sunday that would provide explicit government guarantees on mortgage-backed securities (MBS) generated by privately-owned banks and financial institutions. The gigantic giveaway to Wall Street would put US taxpayers on the hook for 90 percent of the losses on toxic MBS the likes of which crashed the financial system in 2008 plunging the economy into the deepest slump since the Great Depression. Proponents of the bill say that new rules by the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) –which set standards for a “qualified mortgage” (QM)– assure that borrowers will be able to repay their loans thus reducing the chances of a similar meltdown in the future. However, those QE rules were largely shaped by lobbyists and attorneys from the banking industry who eviscerated strict underwriting requirements– like high FICO scores and 20 percent down payments– in order to lend freely to borrowers who may be less able to repay their loans. Additionally, a particularly lethal clause has been inserted into the bill that would provide blanket coverage for all MBS (whether they met the CFPB’s QE standard or not) in the event of another financial crisis. Here’s the paragraph:
Monday, March 24, 2014
What’s Handicapping First-Time U.S. Homebuyers? / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: DailyGainsLetter
John Paul Whitefoot writes: For months and months now we’ve been pointing to seemingly obvious economic data to prove that the U.S. housing market is in trouble because of the weak U.S. economy. Those in the “know”—economists and the real estate board—have been waxing eloquence on how the weather is the main culprit behind the disappointing U.S. housing market numbers.
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Saturday, March 22, 2014
U.S. Housing Market One Chart Says it All / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Mike_Whitney
Get a load of this chart from DataQuick’s National Home Sales Snapshot. It’ll tell you everything need to know about housing.
Wednesday, March 12, 2014
Fannie and Freddie reform is necessary, but not at expense of private sector investment / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Ronan_Keenan
Private investors and the government don’t always make easy bedfellows and nothing exemplifies this more than the case of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. After verging on collapse in 2008, the government-backed mortgage groups are now turning significant profits, but investors are not happy.
Since their inception, the structure of Fannie and Freddie has been a point of contention. Established by government charter, the entities are owned by private shareholders and guarantee the vast majority of US mortgages, buying and selling loans from financial institutions to provide money for the banks to facilitate lending to home buyers. For much of their existence the groups’ configuration has drawn criticism as private investors enjoyed the profits while losses were felt by taxpayers. Things have changed since then.
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Wednesday, March 05, 2014
Has the U.S. Housing Market Hit the Wall? / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Carl_R_Tannenbaum
The housing market began 2013 with a great deal of momentum, but recent data on this sector has moderated considerably. It would be easy to blame this trend on the weather, but there may be more to the housing story. The contribution of this sector to economic growth going forward may not be as robust.
Construction and sales fell to a very low base level during the depth of the recession, and therefore were able to show outsized gains as the recovery began. Residential investment was one of the biggest contributors to gross domestic product growth in 2011 and 2012.
Wednesday, March 05, 2014
The Securitization Fraud That Collapsed the U.S. Housing Market - JPMorgan Chase Mortgage Fraud / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Ellen_Brown
In a nearly $13 billion settlement with the US Justice Department in November 2013, JPMorganChase admitted that it, along with every other large US bank, had engaged in mortgage fraud as a routine business practice, sowing the seeds of the mortgage meltdown. JPMorgan and other megabanks have now been caught in over a dozen major frauds, including LIBOR-rigging and bid-rigging; yet no prominent banker has gone to jail. Meanwhile, nearly a quarter of all mortgages nationally remain underwater (meaning the balance owed exceeds the current value of the home), sapping homeowners’ budgets, the housing market and the economy. Since the banks, the courts and the federal government have failed to give adequate relief to homeowners, some cities are taking matters into their own hands.
Friday, February 28, 2014
How to Profit from the Weakening U.S. Housing Market / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: DailyGainsLetter
John Paul Whitefoot writes: It doesn’t take much to get the bulls excited when it comes to the U.S. housing market. Solid new-home sales data seems to have erased everyone’s memory of the raft of negative housing market numbers that have been flowing in for months.
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Wednesday, February 26, 2014
Warren Buffett - What You Can Learn From My Real Estate Investments / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: John_Mauldin
It does not hurt to be reminded once in a while about what it means to be a “true investor,” and who better to remind us than Warren Buffett? Today’s Outside the Box comes to us from the pages of Fortune magazine (hat tip to my good friend Tom Romero of Capital Research Partners, who is a pretty fair investor in his own right).
Fortune seems to have had the inside scoop on Mr. Buffett’s pronouncements over the years. I still keep some old Fortune magazines with interviews of Mr. Buffett to remind myself about the basics. For whatever reason I was up at 5 o’clock this morning and began reading this piece, and it functioned just as well as coffee as a wake-up call.
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Saturday, February 22, 2014
U.S. Housing Market Mortgage Purchase Applications Running Out Of Time / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: PhilStockWorld
Courtesy of Doug Short: For 2013, one of the main stories in housing was the cool down in existing home sales numbers over the second half of the year, in spite of the relative strength in GDP.
What was the main reason for this? Follow the data and the answer appears. When interest rates spiked we did not see the mythical sideline home buyer rush to the market place. Rather what we saw was a collapse of the mortgage purchase application index.
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Friday, February 21, 2014
Why Analysts Can’t Just Blame the Weather for Poor U.S. Housing Market Numbers / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: DailyGainsLetter
John Paul Whitefoot writes: No matter where you turn, bad earnings or economic indicators are being blamed on the cold weather. Weak January car sales figures were blamed on the weather; disappointing January housing data was blamed on the weather; Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. (NYSE/WMT) revised its earnings guidance lower because of the weather; and even Panera Bread Company (NASDAQ/PNRA) says the cold weather negatively impacted its results.
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Monday, February 17, 2014
U.S. Housing Market Foreclosure Filings Jump as Investors Eye Exits / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Mike_Whitney
Read full article... Read full article...“Speculators may do no harm as bubbles on a steady stream of enterprise. But the position is serious when enterprise becomes the bubble on a whirlpool of speculation. When the capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done.” -John Maynard Keynes, The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money
Monday, February 03, 2014
U.S. Housing Market Flipped, Warped Distorted and Manipulated / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: James_Quinn
The report from RealtyTrac last week proves beyond the shadow of a doubt the supposed housing market recovery is a complete and utter fraud. The corporate mainstream media did their usual spin job on the report by focusing on the fact foreclosure starts in 2013 were the lowest since 2007. Focusing on this meaningless fact (because the Too Big To Trust Wall Street Criminal Banks have delayed foreclosure starts as part of their conspiracy to keep prices rising) is supposed to convince the willfully ignorant masses the housing market is back to normal. It’s always the best time to buy!!!
Wednesday, January 29, 2014
The “Vanishing” First-Time Home Buyer; What It Means for the U.S. Housing Market / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: DailyGainsLetter
John Paul Whitefoot writes: Ah, the U.S. housing market, the so-called silver lining in the U.S. recovery—but not for long, as it may be rusting. The U.S. housing numbers are in, and they aren’t spectacular.
In the U.S. housing market, December existing-home sales rose one percent month-over-month at an annualized pace of 4.87 million units. Analysts were expecting December existing-home numbers to come in at 4.93 million. The one-percent increase also has to be taken with a grain of salt, as it was helped, in part, by a downward revision in November existing-home U.S. housing market sales to 4.82 million units. (Source: “December Existing-Home Sales Rise, 2013 Strongest in Seven Years,” National Association of Realtors web site, January 23, 2014.)
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Wednesday, January 29, 2014
Is the U.S. Housing Market Recovery Fake? / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: DailyGainsLetter
Mohammad Zulfiqar writes: The U.S. housing market is facing issues that must be addressed. The reality of the matter is that home buyers are still missing from the market—these are the people looking to buy a home and stay in it for a long time. If home buyers don’t come back to the housing market, hopes for the increase we saw in home prices in 2012 and 2013 will diminish very quickly.
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Friday, January 24, 2014
Dissecting the U.S. Housing Market Bubble - When Will the Next Bubble Burst? / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Mike_Shedlock
Today I am going to ask three simple questions that have easy to understand answers.
- What Causes Economic Bubbles?
- When Do Bubbles Burst?
- Can the Fed Prevent Bubbles?
Saturday, January 18, 2014
U.S. Housing Market Is Soaring... But There's Still Plenty of Upside / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: DailyWealth
Dr. Steve Sjuggerud writes: I had never bought real estate as an investment BEFORE the housing bust...
In short, I want INCREDIBLE value for my investment dollars... and I had never seen that before in U.S. real estate... until the Great Bust.
Then in 2008, near the bottom of the housing crisis, I wrote "The Housing Bust Is Over."
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, January 16, 2014
U.S. Housing Market Now Providing a Tailwind to Economic Growth / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: PhilStockWorld
Courtesy of Doug Short: While residential investment represents a small portion of gross domestic product (GDP), housing is perhaps one of the most cyclical sectors of the economy and tends to lead economic swings by months to years. As such, keeping a close eye on housing provides a valuable insight into future economic trends. While housing represented a major headwind to the economy after the housing bubble burst, as I show below, it is now providing a major tailwind instead.
Thursday, January 16, 2014
Get Ready for Subprime Mortgage Crisis 2.0, Collapse in U.S. Housing Market Coming... / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Videos
Forget what you are hearing about stiffer mortgage lending requirements. It’s not true. Real estate expert Fabian Calvo says, “If you can fog up a mirror or you have a pulse, they will give you a home loan. That’s what they have done with the car loans, and that’s what they are doing with housing loans.” The so-called new rules do not have any down payment credit score requirement. Zero percent down loans are going to make a very big comeback. According to Calvo, “After the mid-term election, you’re going to see no-money-down loans just really roar back. It’s all part of the pump and dump I’ve been telling you about for well over a year.”
Tuesday, January 14, 2014
Five U.S. Housing Market Headwinds / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Mike_Shedlock
Black Knight Financial Services, formerly LPS, released its latest Mortgage Monitor Forecast.
Key Highlights
- Mortgage originations are at the lowest levels in almost four years
- Prepayment/refi activity indicates another drop coming
- Higher interest rates slow refinance activity
- Quality of loans originated in 2013 have made it the best performing vintage on on record.
- Home equity originations are up significantly since a year ago: total HE lending is up 70%, while volume on 2nd mortgages has more than doubled
- Population of “refinancible” loans continues to shrink - Only 5.9M loans meet broadly defined criteria for refinancing, down 4M since December 2012.
- Delinquencies continue to rise among HELOCs that began amortizing
- High risk of “payment shock” in the coming three years
Tuesday, January 07, 2014
Trouble Ahead for the U.S. Housing Market in 2014? / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Profit_Confidential
Michael Lombardi writes: Will the gains that the U.S. housing market made in 2012 and 2013 continue into 2014? As you’ll read below, the biggest threat to the housing market is moving in the opposite direction—against housing.
Sure, the Case-Shiller S&P Home Price Index, which tracks prices in the U.S. housing market, shows an overall increase of 13.6% in home prices in the first 10 months of 2013 (see the chart below).
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Sunday, January 05, 2014
U.S. House Prices Forecast 2014, 2013 Bull Market to Yield U.S. Economic Boom / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
U.S. central bank rampant money printing has succeeded in inflating the US housing market far beyond anything that anyone could have imagined at the start of 2013, in fact a year ago the consensus view was that for U.S. house prices to end DOWN on the year, and such prevailing bearishness persisted in the mainstream press well into the middle of the year, instead as of writing the latest house prices data of 180.27 (SPCS10) published on 31st Dec 2013 for October 2013 puts U.S. housing market momentum at a high of 13.5% per annum as illustrated by the graph below:
Wednesday, December 18, 2013
A Property Bubble in the U.S. Housing Market? / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: DailyWealth
Dr. Steve Sjuggerud writes: I love it...
Many so-called "experts" are now worrying about a property bubble here in the U.S.
History says our opportunity in housing is still great. And all this bubble talk is way overblown. Let me explain...
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Wednesday, December 18, 2013
Will the U.S. Housing Market Tank Again? / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Marty_Chenard
We discussed long term interest rates last week, but it is too important to ignore given the critical juncture the Federal Reserve is at now. (FYI ... there are 4 important charts posted below today that show long term interest rates, median income, and employment. Please be sure to see them.)
Tuesday, December 17, 2013
U.S. Housing Market Setting Up for Another Crash / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: EconMatters
All that Glitters, is not Gold
The housing market appears to be in better shape than it really is and investors should be wary regarding investing in Housing stocks, investing in property not as a primary residence, and should conduct a thorough analysis of their own financial obligations with regards to their primary residence.
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Thursday, November 28, 2013
U.S. Housing Market Losing Ground? / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Carl_R_Tannenbaum
The Federal Reserve in its October policy statement viewed the housing sector as having "slowed somewhat." A quick run through the latest data confirms this diagnosis and offers some reasons for it.
The partial federal government shutdown had a very pronounced impact on the publication of home sales and housing starts reports, which have been delayed for quite some time. Home sales data for September and October will be published on December 4, while housing starts numbers for September through November are scheduled for December 18.
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Wednesday, November 27, 2013
Raging U.S. Housing Bull Market, House Price Inflation Breaks Above 13%, 2014 Outlook / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The latest U.S. house price data released yesterday for September shows U.S. house price inflation momentum has continued to soar to an annualised rate of more than 13% well beyond the expectations of even the few bullish market commentators at the start of the year, whilst the bears are left to wallow in a state of perma-tripe that continues to go completely contrary to what has actually been transpiring during 2013.
Sunday, November 24, 2013
U.S. Housing Mortgage Bubble About to Burst Again? / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Pravda
A new mortgage crisis is brewing on the real estate market, foreign experts believe. Judging by how briskly housing prices have been rising in the largest economies of the world - China and the U.S. - the mortgage "bubble" may burst very soon. The number of foreclosures in the United States has been growing steadily. Why do the authorities take no efforts to prevent another collapse of the housing market?
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Friday, November 22, 2013
More Evidence U.S. Housing Market Is Turning Cold / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: DailyGainsLetter
Mohammad Zulfiqar writes: The U.S. housing market is in trouble, and it’s foolish to believe that it’s going to show gains like it did earlier this year and in 2012. More and more evidence is lining up in favor of the housing market in the U.S. economy seeing stagnant growth, or maybe even heading for a downturn.
It is not stressed enough that the housing market depends on home buyers; if they don’t buy, robust growth doesn’t occur.
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Tuesday, November 12, 2013
Why the U.S. Housing Market Recovery Won’t End Well / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Profit_Confidential
Michael Lombardi writes:
The news headlines are saying the U.S. housing market is witnessing robust growth and flipping homes for profit is back.
While many are now saying there is growth in the U.S. housing market and that it will continue, I disagree with them, based on many different factors…all of which I want my readers to know about.
Friday, November 01, 2013
How to Profit from a Potential U.S. Housing Market Downdraft / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: InvestmentContrarian
George Leong writes: The housing market has had a nice run up over the past several years, but the party is beginning to fade.
Home prices continue to edge higher with a 12.8% jump in August, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index. While this seems positive, you also have to wonder if the housing market is headed for a bubble down the road as mortgage rates rise—and they will.
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Wednesday, October 30, 2013
New Rental Securitization Deal Likely Heralds U.S. Housing Market Double Dip / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Money_Morning
Shah Gilani writes: Today, in New York, investors will be pitched the first-ever REO-to-rental securitization deal. The $500 million deal bundles foreclosed single-family homes, "real-estate-owned" by Blackstone Group L.P. (NYSE: BX) , into securities that pass-through rental payments to investors.
The new securitization of rental properties comes at a time when home prices have rebounded dramatically across the country. But rather than confirming a bull market in housing, the "trade," as Reuters calls the transaction, likely heralds a coming double dip.
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Wednesday, October 30, 2013
What U.S. Housing Market Recovery? / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Mike_Whitney
"4,594,000 Mortgages Going Unpaid in the United States."
Buying a house is a lot like buying a car. If you don’t look under the hood, you could wind up with a lemon. Only with housing, it’s not as simple as checking the dipstick or looking for oil under the rear axle. No, smart home buyers check the data to see what’s really going on. That’s the best way to cut through the hype and separate the fact from the fiction.
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Thursday, September 26, 2013
How to Buy Prime Manhattan Real Estate for Less Than $100 / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Money_Morning
Robert Hsu writes: Unless you own a home in each of America's 20 biggest cities - or you're an economist - a 12.4% increase in the S&P/Case-Shiller Index doesn't mean much.
You can't make money from a nationwide statistic. Not in real estate...
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Thursday, September 26, 2013
No Tapering, More QE, Serious U.S. Housing Market Slowdown / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Mike_Shedlock
With September out of the way, most economists now expect a December tapering event. Steen Jakobsen, chief economist at Saxo Bank in Denmark is not one of them.
Via email, Steen writes ...
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Monday, September 16, 2013
Is the U.S. Housing Market Recovery Over? / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Mike_Whitney
Mortgage rates are rising and the housing market is getting weaker. In May of 2013, the 30-year fixed rate mortgage was 3.59%. Today it is 4.71%, more than a full percentage point higher. That means that the payment on a $200,000 loan is 15 percent more than it would have been just two months ago. The higher rates mean that would-be homebuyers are getting less bang for their buck and might not be able to afford their dream home. It means that housing sales will fall and prices will drop. Higher rates are poison for housing.
Thursday, September 12, 2013
Big Drop-Off in U.S. Mortgage Applications Spells Trouble for Housing Market Again / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: InvestmentContrarian
Sasha Cekerevac writes: Regular readers of this column are fully aware that for the past year I have been calling for higher levels of interest rates. I’ve also stated that higher interest rates will have an impact on the housing market and related stocks.
Well, now we are starting to see my forecast come to fruition, as many mortgage-lending operations are seeing the negative impact of higher interest rates on the levels of mortgage originations.
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Friday, September 06, 2013
U.S. Housing Market Short Squeeze Shorting Opportunity / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Money_Morning
Shah Gilani writes:Everyone knows the U.S. housing "recovery" has been resurrected on slippery ground. But now that we're finally about to slip - big time - no one sees it coming...
Then again, how could they?
The numbers are incredibly misleading...
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, August 28, 2013
WARNING: These Housing REIT Stocks Will Crush You - Strong Sell Signal / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Money_Morning
Robert Hsu writes: Log in to your brokerage account... Call your broker... Request a plan prospectus from your pension administrator... Jump online and review the holdings in your "target retirement" funds, ETFs, variable annuities...
Do whatever it takes to find out - today - how much exposure you have to real estate investment trusts (REITs), and mortgage REITs in particular.
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Saturday, August 24, 2013
What Those Collapsing House Building Stocks is Trying to Tell Us / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Profit_Confidential
Michael Lombardi writes:
Finally, some good news for the U.S. economy?
The National Association of Realtors (NAR) just reported July existing-home sales increased in the U.S. housing market to an annual rate of 5.39 million homes—up 17.2% from July of 2012. (Source: National Association of Realtors, August 21, 2013.)
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Saturday, August 24, 2013
U.S. Housing Market New Homes Sales Plunge 13.4% on Rising Mortgage Rates / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Mike_Shedlock
On August 14 I penned Mortgage Applications Decline 13th Time in 15 Weeks; Are Mortgage Rates Cheap? What's Next For Housing?.
Pertinent Snips
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Friday, August 16, 2013
U.S. Housing Market Flipping for Profit Is Back? / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Profit_Confidential
Michael Lombardi writes: When I turn on the TV or read a newspaper, reporters are touting how robust the U.S. housing market has once again become. Voices on the radio “sing” a similar tune. Some are saying the “rebound” in the housing market will continue for a while. Charts of home prices rising in Phoenix, Arizona and Las Vegas, Nevada are all over the media.
Thursday, August 15, 2013
U.S. House Prices Soaring, Housing Bull Market Momentum Reaches Boom Times / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Prospective U.S. Home buyers who may have been persuaded by skeptical journalists that populate the mainstream financial press of the sustainability of the rise in house prices will by now be increasingly finding themselves in an panicky state as US house prices have literally started to soar during the past few months, as illustrated by the Case Shiller house prices index for the most recent month of May showing a jump of 7% over just the past 6 months.
Friday, August 09, 2013
Why Millions of Americans are Still "Trapped" in Their Homes / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Money_Morning
Gary Gately writes: For millions of Americans who were underwater on their mortgages, the tide is finally receding.
That's good news for the housing market, of course, and for the U.S. economy as a whole, as housing is a major engine of the economy.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, August 03, 2013
Deflating Mini U.S. Housing Bubble May Be Economy’s Next Problem / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Sy_Harding
The housing and automobile industries are the main driving forces of the economy - in both directions. That makes sense since consumer spending accounts for 70% of the economy, and homes and cars are the biggest ticket items consumers spend money on. More importantly, unlike most purchases, it’s not just spending the money they made last week, but through loans and mortgages it’s spending in advance money they will earn for the next five to thirty years.
Friday, August 02, 2013
Is the U.S. Home Mortgage Interest Deduction Worth Keeping? / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Money_Morning
Garrett Baldwin: Don't Just Cut the Mortgage Deduction... Cut All Deductions and Lower Taxes
If home ownership is the American Dream... then why do we need government to subsidize it?
The home mortgage interest deduction (HMID) is a lopsided tool of economic alchemy that favors the rich, and artificially increases housing prices due to the "stimulus" it creates.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, August 01, 2013
Detroit Broke City / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Peter_Schiff
It should come as no surprise that the lessons that should be learned from the bankruptcy of Detroit, a city that once stood as the shining example of America's industrial might, are being ignored by the American political establishment and its allies in the docile press corps. While the death spiral of the Motor City may be extreme in relation to conditions throughout the country, it is a difference of degree rather than design. In truth, Detroit is our canary in the coal mine. It is succumbing to the same combination of productive decay, government mismanagement, and unmanageable debt that is crushing the rest of us. But as the most sub-prime of all major American cities, the symptoms that are infecting all of us have first become fatal in Detroit.
Tuesday, July 30, 2013
U.S. Housing Market Recovery in Jeopardy / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Michael_Pento
A major determinant for U.S. GDP growth is the state of the real estate sector. The construction of new homes contains only small section of the total picture. New appliance purchases and home furnishings go hand in hand with all the ancillary employment surrounding the housing market. Real Estate brokers, banking and legal functions are all necessary to support the buying and selling of new and existing houses. Most importantly, rising real estate prices increase the net worth of consumers, which in turn boosts credit creation, consumption and economic activity. These points were overlooked back in 2007; and the major reason why nearly everyone on Wall Street and in Washington was blindsided by from the fallout of collapsing real estate prices.
Monday, July 29, 2013
Why the Housing Market Recovery is Bypassing Young Buyers / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Money_Morning
Gary Gately writes: Think of the housing market as a ladder with first-time homebuyers at the bottom and homeowners on the upper rungs, with homes priced higher as you proceed upward.
The first-time homebuyers make it possible for those in the lower-priced homes to sell and move up to costlier homes, which in turn enables the sellers of those homes to move up to costlier homes - and so on.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, July 28, 2013
Declare Detroit a Free City, Give Free Markets a Chance / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: MISES
Patrick Barron writes: We who advocate the free market as the sure path to peace and prosperity often hear that the US economy has to get much, much worse before any real reforms will be allowed. Why must we continue to wait before taking serious action to throttle back parasitic government? A common response is that we need to wait until things are so bad that no one will be able to deny that government is the problem and not the answer. Then even died-in-the-wool socialists will give the free market a chance.
Saturday, July 27, 2013
Return of the U.S. Housing Market Bust / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Graham_Summers
Anyone who believes that housing is back in a big way needs to take a look at homebuilder stocks.
Here’s DR Horton (DHI) which is down over 30% from its recent highs.
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Friday, July 26, 2013
How Higher U.S. Mortgage Interest Rates Will Impact on Housing Market / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Money_Morning
Gary Gately writes: Where will higher mortgage rates raise monthly mortgage payments most?
These three charts from the real estate site Zillow.com depict how higher mortgage rates will affect monthly mortgage payments in different markets throughout the United States.
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Tuesday, July 23, 2013
How Higher Mortgage Interest Rates Will Dent U.S. Housing Market Recovery / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Money_Morning
Gary Gately writes: How much do higher mortgage rates reduce home sales?
That, of course, depends on how much rates rise and whom you ask. But there's no doubt higher mortgage rates hurt sales, experts say.
Interest rates have been climbing since May. Rates on 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages averaged 4.37% for the week ending July 18, Freddie Mac's weekly survey of conforming mortgage rates said. That's up more than a percentage point from early May.
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Wednesday, July 17, 2013
Big REIT Opportunities in the U.S. Housing Market Recovery / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Money_Morning
Martin Hutchinson writes: If you listen to most pundits, you would think housing is on its way back.
But I don't listen to people. I do my own research and make up my mind.
And what I've found is that this housing rally is a double-edged sword. But if you're smart you take advantage of its potential while eliminating much of its real risks.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, July 12, 2013
Will the U.S. Home Mortgage Interest Deduction Vanish in 2013? / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Money_Morning
Garrett Baldwin writes: In 2013, Congress is expected to explore a number of tax reforms in order to address staggering deficits and a crippling $17 trillion in debt owed by the Federal government.
No proposed tax reform will be more controversial this year than attempts to alter the Home Mortgage Interest Deduction (HMID).
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Sunday, July 07, 2013
The First Chinks in U.S. Housing Bull Markets Armor / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: DailyWealth
Steve Sjuggerud writes: My favorite idea for the last couple years has been U.S. housing...
The idea is simple. It's based on the fact that TWO once-in-a-lifetime things have come together. We're dealing with...
Wednesday, July 03, 2013
How to Profit from the U.S. Housing Market Recovery / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Money_Morning
Gary Gately writes: Housing has rebounded in a big way.
Sales of new, single-family homes surged from April to May at the highest rate since July 2008 and by 29% over the previous year, while existing home sales reached the highest level since November 2009.
And home prices posted their biggest annual increase in more than seven years in May and are expected to continue rising, CoreLogic said Tuesday.
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Thursday, June 27, 2013
How to Make the Most from the Changes in the U.S. Housing Market / Personal_Finance / US Housing
By: DailyGainsLetter
Moe Zulfiqar writes: The housing market in the U.S. economy has gained a significant amount of attention. Even my old friend, Mr. Speculator, who likes to make big bets for bigger gains, told me it’s a good time to buy a house, saying “the prices are cheap, and they are only going higher from here.”What’s certain is that the U.S. housing market has seen an uptick since the home prices hit bottom in early 2012; but is it on the path to real recovery, or is what we are seeing just a minor bounce?
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, June 26, 2013
Homebuyers in Bidding Wars - Why U.S. House Prices Have Been on a Tear / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Money_Morning
Gary Gately writes:
In another sign the housing recovery is genuine, home prices soared the most in more than seven years in April in 20 U.S. cities.
The S&P/Case-Shiller index, released today, climbed 12.1% from April 2012, marking the biggest year-over-year increase since March 2006, and rose 2.5% from March to April.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, June 24, 2013
U.S. Housing Market Once in a Century Opportunity / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: DailyWealth
Steve Sjuggerud writes: The numbers just came out... and they're excellent...
The median existing home price is up 15.4% year over year... to $208,000. But even at these higher prices, homes are going fast...
The latest numbers show that houses are only on the market for 41 days before they sell, versus 72 days a year ago. (These numbers are nationwide medians.)
Friday, June 21, 2013
Did the Federal Reserve Just Kill the U.S. Housing Market Recovery? / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: InvestmentContrarian
George Leong writes: Get ready folks, the party in the housing market may be drawing to a close. Sure, the housing market has steadily improved—you can thank the Federal Reserve for that. But nothing lasts forever.
Just take a look at the steady rise in the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rates after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke suggested he might have to reduce his monthly bond buying—buying that helped to drive down lower-term financing rates.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, June 19, 2013
Reasons Why U.S. Housing Market Recovery is Genuine / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Money_Morning
Gary Gately writes: The housing market recovery is for real this time. Coming after the housing market crash, the recovery is welcome news to those in the industry - and bodes well for the economy as a whole.
"It almost seems too good to be true," Lawrence Yun, the chief economist at the National Association of Realtors, told Money Morning.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, June 18, 2013
U.S. Real Estate Investing: Now Time to Take Advantage of the Current Buyer’s Market? / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Don_Miller
While I spent well over three decades writing books and teaching the subject of negotiations, some of the best lessons I learned on the subject came from luck.
Many investment pundits recommend taking full advantage of the current buyer’s market in real estate. Lenders are foreclosing on many properties, often selling them at a loss. At the same time, many private sellers are listing their property on the market well below what they paid for it. This presents wonderful buying opportunities for those who can take advantage of them. If you are going to buy property, you want the best price you can get.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, June 15, 2013
U.S. Housing Market - Time to Buy a House? / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Mike_Whitney
Anyone who buys a house in today’s market should be aware of the risks. They should know that current prices are not supported by fundamentals, but by unprecedented manipulation by the Fed, the Obama administration, Wall Street Private Equity investors, and the nation’s biggest banks. If any of these main-players withdraws or even reduces their support for the market (in other words, if the banks release more of their distressed inventory, if rates rise, if PE firms buy fewer homes, or if the Congress curtails current mortgage modification programs), housing prices will fall. Given the increasing volatility in global stock and bond markets in recent weeks–which is likely to intensify as the Fed implements its exit strategy from QE– interest rates will continue to fluctuate putting downward pressure on housing sales and prices. The impact the Fed’s policy will have on markets and the economy is unknown. The Central Bank is in uncharted water. That makes it a particularly bad time to buy a home. Caveat emptor.
Thursday, June 13, 2013
U.S. Housing Recovery Already Comes to an End? / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Profit_Confidential
Michael Lombardi writes: The housing market simply isn’t improving at the rate many in the mainstream media are telling us.
Home prices are still significantly lower than what they were during 2005 and 2006. On its own, there is no housing market recovery. All we are witnessing is the mere reflection of easy money provided by our central bank.
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Thursday, June 13, 2013
U.S. Housing Market Potential for Catastrophic Losses for FHA / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Money_Morning
Gary Gately writes:
Five years after the financial crisis, just about everyone has had to clean up their act.
Consumers have less credit card debt. Banks are stuffed with capital, prodded by the Federal Reserve. Even the federal deficit is shrinking.
But one federal agency seems to have resisted long-overdue change. It's the Federal Housing Administration or FHA.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, June 10, 2013
U.S. House Prices Accelerating, Fed Succeeding in Inflating New Ponzi Housing Market Bubble? / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The Fed's QE-Infinity money printing programme to buy mortgage backed securities and government bonds that is running at a monthly rate of $85 billion is succeeding in inflating another US housing market bubble as house prices surge by an annualised rate of 11% in March (28th May) with some cities such as Phoenix seeing house prices soar by an annualised rate of 20%.
Now whilst the title of this article may contain the word bubble, however understand this that we are in the very early stages of the housing bull market that follows on from the embryonic bull market of 2012 which has many years to run, so do not make the mistake that many market commentators are making in the wake of the latest data, those who never saw this bull market coming are busy already proclaiming it as bubble that is about to burst.
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Thursday, June 06, 2013
Best Explanation for the Fake U.S. Housing Market Recovery / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Profit_Confidential
Michael Lombardi writes:
The average American Joe isn’t participating in the U.S. housing market. As a matter of fact, according to the Campbell/Inside Mortgage Finance HousingPulse Tracking Survey, investors purchased 69% of “damaged” properties in April 2013, while first-time home buyers accounted for only 16% of “damaged” purchases.
Friday, May 31, 2013
The Great Reflation of the U.S. Housing Market / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Peter_Schiff
This week economists, investors and politicians were treated to some of the "best" home price data since the frothy days of 2006 when home loans were given out like cotton candy and condo flipping was a national pastime. The Case-Shiller 20 City Composite Home price index was up a startling 10.9% for the 12 month period ending in March. Prices in all 20 cities were up, with some (Las Vegas, Phoenix, and San Francisco) notching gains of more than 20%. Meanwhile the National Association of Realtors announced that April pending home sales volume reached the highest level in nearly three years.
Thursday, May 30, 2013
Is Real Estate Ever a Wise Investment for Retirees? / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Don_Miller
At one point in my life you might have heard me say something like, “I’ve probably made more money in real estate by accident than I have in the market on purpose.” For many years, you could buy good-quality property, as much as you could afford, and you were almost guaranteed to make money. That ended in 2008. Now folks are looking for bargains, hoping to profit from the crash.
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Wednesday, May 29, 2013
Chinese Sovereign Fund Shifts Focus to U.S. Real Estate / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: InvestmentContrarian
Sasha Cekerevac writes: One of the biggest fears for investors is to buy at the top of any market. This is a natural reaction because most of us were taught since childhood to do the opposite. For example, my parents always emphasized the importance of buying products when they’re on sale.
Some people view the significant rise in home prices with apprehension, believing that these prices have risen too far. While it is true that home prices have risen substantially, as long as interest rates remain low, there is potential for further capital appreciation.
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Wednesday, May 29, 2013
What U.S. Housing Market Recovery? Percentage of First-Time Home Buyers Falls Again / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Profit_Confidential
Michael Lombardi writes: It’s almost as if the mainstream media is defining the U.S. housing market as being “hot,” while some economists are calling for robust growth ahead. But the reality is that we are far from a recovery in thehousing market and more troubles could follow.
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Saturday, May 25, 2013
The Best Way to Play the Rebounding U.S. Housing Market / Companies / US Housing
By: Investment_U
Zach Scheidt writes: The U.S. is in the midst of a robust housing recovery.
There’s no denying it… The evidence has been mounting for several quarters now. Home prices are on the rise and the number of distressed houses on the market is dropping steadily. In some key real estate markets, there are even reports of shortages of available homes on the market.
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Friday, May 24, 2013
U.S. Housing Market Important Data that Financial Media Ignored / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: J_W_Jones
Wednesday was a wild trading session where we saw the largest intraday selloff in the S&P 500 E-Mini futures that we have seen in some time. Intraday price action was driven largely by statements made by Chairman Bernanke and the release of the Federal Reserve Meeting Minutes which saw some monster intraday moves and a large spike in the Volatility Index (VIX).
While the world is focused on when the Federal Reserve is going to taper their Quantitative Easing program and the impact those actions will have on financial markets, I wanted to look at another divergence in the economic data which is supported by market action.
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Monday, May 20, 2013
The Best U.S. Housing Market Stocks to Buy / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Money_Morning
Tim Melvin writes: In New York City last week investors from around the country gathered for the Ira Sohn Conference to pitch their lists of the best stocks to buy in 2013.
One of the more interesting presentations this year featured Steve Eisman of Emrys Partners, who gave a presentation that was very bullish on the prospects for the U.S. housing market.
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Monday, May 13, 2013
Sign of Another U.S. Housing Market Bubble? / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Money_Morning
All you have to do is look at a price chart of Lennar Corp (NYSE: LEN) to see the proof that the U.S. housing market is on the mend.
Since January 2012, shares of the Miami, Fl.-based new homebuilder have more than doubled.
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Friday, May 10, 2013
What Every Home Buyers Need to Know About the U.S. Housing Market / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Money_Morning
The U.S. housing market's recovery is gaining momentum, but there are still a number of issues for homebuyers to be cautious of.
To get to the bottom of what's really going on in the housing market, we talked to Gerri Willis, author of "Home Rich" and host of FOX Business Network's The Willis Report (6 p.m. weekdays), about the key things homebuyers need to know in today's challenging market.
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Wednesday, May 08, 2013
Is the U.S. Housing Market Shortage Just a Mirage? / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: DailyGainsLetter
John Whitefoot writes:Thanks to the near-record-low interest rates, many Americans are ready to jump back into the housing market. Unfortunately, many are running into one obstacle—there aren’t enough homes for sale. That’s a good sign, though! After all, a leading indicator of economic growth is a healthy housing market, and a lack of housing should mean that builders can’t keep up with demand.
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Tuesday, May 07, 2013
Another U.S. Housing Market Crisis on the Horizon? / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: InvestmentContrarian
George Leong writes: Home prices are heating up, as the flow of new homes and permits continue to steadily increase and the attraction of historically low mortgage rates motivates buyers.
The buyers that are driving up the housing market are not only the buyers of principal homes, but also the investors who are attracted to the relatively lower home prices and cheap financing.
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Sunday, May 05, 2013
U.S. Housing Market Shell Game - Prices Up Ownership Down / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Mike_Whitney
Why are housing prices rising when the homeownership rate has dropped to its lowest level in 18 years?
Actually, it’s not as confusing as it sounds. The Fed’s low interest rates have triggered a flurry of home buying by Private Equity firms and other speculators which has reduced already-tight supply and pushed up prices. Of course, there is a downside to all this speculation, which is that real, “organic” demand from ordinary working people looking for a place to live, has dropped off sharply. That’s why the homeownership rate is in the dumps. It’s also why existing homes sales declined 0.6 percent in March and “the volume of purchase applications is at levels last seen in 1998″, because as prices edge higher, more people are opting to rent rather than own. Who can blame them?
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Friday, May 03, 2013
The 10 Best U.S. Housing Markets 2013 / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Money_Morning
Ben Gersten writes: The percentage of Americans optimistic about the U.S. housing market has reached levels not seen since rumblings of the financial crisis began.
A new Rasmussen Reports national survey found 37% of homeowners believe the value of their home will increase in the next year - thehighest since September 2008.
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Friday, May 03, 2013
Lumber Sales Forecasting Stronger U.S. Housing Market / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: DailyGainsLetter
Mitchell Clark writes: Reflecting the strength in the U.S. housing market, Weyerhaeuser Company (NYSE/WY) reported very good financial results in its first quarter.
The company’s 2013 first-quarter revenues leapt to $1.95 billion, way up from $1.49 billion in the same quarter last year, on solid demand from all its business lines.
Sunday, April 28, 2013
Own or Rent Your Home - The Cost of Posession / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: DailyWealth
Mark Ford writes: In the mid-1980s, a few years after I "decided to be rich," I bought my dream house. It was a 4,000-square-foot chateau-styled, custom-built, five-bedroom home in a very nice gated neighborhood called Les Jardins in Boca Raton, Florida.
The cost of the house was about $600,000 – more than I ever imagined I could afford. But thanks to the success of a business I had started, I had socked away about $125,000. That was enough to cover the down payment and closing costs.
Friday, April 26, 2013
Investing in Housing Market REITs Instead of Property: Our Pick / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Don_Miller
I get a lot of questions from readers about holding real estate as an investment. Indeed, many are in response to another newsletter editor who was recently advocating that the only way for retirees to make decent income was to own property.
Personally, I wouldn’t hold physical property in our portfolio for three reasons.
First, it’s very illiquid; that makes it an instant failure on our Five-Point Balancing Test.
Second, you won’t get yield from a property for three to five years, but will instead pay to own it.
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Sunday, April 21, 2013
Tax "Loophole" That Will Help You Pay for Your Dream Vacation Home / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: DailyWealth
Dr. David Eifrig writes: I bet you've never heard of this...
It's a special government loophole... that allows you to earn extra cash, totally tax-free. It's 100% legal and simple to use. It can even help you pay for a dream vacation home.
Thursday, April 18, 2013
Safer Way to Get Exposure to U.S. Housing Market / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Profit_Confidential
George Leong writes:
I’m talking about the housing market and the continued recovery taking hold. The housing market is well off its early 2009 lows and is striving higher on the chart.
The number of foreclosures across America is declining, and this is a good sign, as a high foreclosure rate tends to place downward pressure on home prices.
Thursday, April 04, 2013
Is Wall Street Creating Another U.S. Housing Market Bubble? / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Money_Morning
Shah Gilani writes: Where there's smoke there's fire.
When it comes to rising home prices, the question is whether the on-fire price increases are a healthy sign of a housing recovery or a smoke screen masking another investor-led real estate bubble.
The answer is it's both.
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Tuesday, April 02, 2013
Take Advantage of U.S. Housing Market Recovery; Avoid Real Estate and Homebuilders / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: DailyGainsLetter
John Whitefoot writes: The Dow Jones Industrial Average continues to climb into uncharted territory, trading above 14,500. This is in spite of weak underlying economic indicators. On Main Street, unemployment remains high, consumer confidence is low, and gross domestic product (GDP) remains bleak. On Wall Street, it’s confetti, unicorns, and a raging bull.
Wednesday, March 27, 2013
Proof U.S. Housing Market Recovery is for Real and Just Beginning / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Money_Morning
Ben Gersten writes: The housing market has rebounded in a big way, with home prices increasing the most since the housing bubble burst in 2006.
Prices aren't the only indicator pointed toward recovery.
Housing barometers including sales, permits and housing starts have surged well beyond their recession troughs and back into healthy territory - and bullish analysts say there's plenty more room for growth after years of decreased activity.
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Thursday, March 21, 2013
U.S. House Prices About to Soar... Don't Wait a Moment Longer! / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: DailyWealth
Steve Sjuggerud writes: "We're only one year into this recovery..." Doug Yearley said on Bloomberg TV yesterday morning.
"Remember, we had seven of the worst years in housing that this country has ever seen. This recovery, we believe, should be a lot longer than just one or two years."
Saturday, March 16, 2013
How to Make Millions From U.S. Real Estate Market Without Paying Taxes / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Investment_U
Mark Skousen writes: “How do you make a million? Borrow a million, invest it in real estate, and pay it off.” - Jack Miller
I just returned from a weeklong Royal Caribbean cruise on the “Freedom of the Seas” (great ship) sponsored by The Real Estate Guys Robert Helms and Russell Gray, who have their own radio show and are regular speakers at FreedomFest. Most of my family joined me and we had a great time.
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Monday, March 11, 2013
U.S. Housing Market Mania Bidding Wars Are Back / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: EWI
Home-bidding wars have erupted in Washington D.C., a reminder of the days of the real estate frenzy.
Read full article... Read full article...While much of the nation is still struggling to emerge from a historic housing-market meltdown, the District is reliving its boom days. High rents, low interest rates, low inventory, and a flood of new residents in their 20s and 30s are making parts of the city feel like it's 2005 again.
Monday, March 04, 2013
U.S. Housing Real Estate Market House Prices Trend Forecast 2013 to 2016 / News_Letter / US Housing
By: NewsLetter
The Market Oracle NewsletterJanaury 12th , 2013 Issue # 1 Vol. 7
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Friday, March 01, 2013
Is a Bubble Developing in U.S. Housing Market? / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: InvestmentContrarian
George Leong writes: Recently in these pages, I talked about how the government, the Treasury, and the Federal Reserve were creating an artificial economy that was supported by cheap money and low interest rates.
One of the major benefactors of this cheap money was the housing sector, which is now sizzling hot. The median price of an existing home in the U.S. was $173,600 in January, up 12.3% from an average of $154,600 a year earlier. (Source: United States Census Bureau web site, last accessed February 27, 2013.)
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Thursday, February 28, 2013
Why Florida's Housing Market is Set to Boom / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: DailyWealth
Dr. Steve Sjuggerud writes: "I got off the plane in California last January and felt the warmth and the sunshine... in the depth of my New Jersey winter.
"I thought to myself, 'You don't have to live like this.'"
My friend wants out of New Jersey... for a warmer, more business-friendly state, like my own state of Florida. He will certainly not be the only one making such a move.
Tuesday, February 26, 2013
U.S. Housing Bubble - Why It's Always the Best Time to Buy Houses / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: James_Quinn
“The continuing shortages of housing inventory are driving the price gains. There is no evidence of bubbles popping.” – David Lereah, NAR mouthpiece/economist – August 2005
"The steady improvement in home sales will support price appreciation despite all the wild projections by academics, Wall Street analysts, and others in the media." – David Lereah, NAR mouthpiece/economist – January 10, 2007
"Buyer traffic is continuing to pick up, while seller traffic is holding steady. In fact, buyer traffic is 40 percent above a year ago, so there is plenty of demand but insufficient inventory to improve sales more strongly. We've transitioned into a seller's market in much of the country. We expect a seasonal rise of inventory this spring, but it may be insufficient to avoid more frequent incidences of multiple bidding and faster-than-normal price growth.” – Lawrence Yun – NAR mouthpiece/economist – February 21, 2013
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Friday, February 22, 2013
U.S. Housing Market Mania Makes a Comeback, Bidding Wars in Washington D.C. / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: EWI
Home-bidding wars have erupted in Washington D.C., a reminder of the days of the real estate frenzy.
Read full article... Read full article...While much of the nation is still struggling to emerge from a historic housing-market meltdown, the District is reliving its boom days. High rents, low interest rates, low inventory, and a flood of new residents in their 20s and 30s are making parts of the city feel like it's 2005 again.
Thursday, February 21, 2013
Krugman's Call for a U.S. Housing Market Bubble To Fight Recession / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: MISES
Daniel James Sanchez writes: In 2009, Lew Rockwell posted this quote of Paul Krugman's from a 2002 New York Times editorial:
Read full article... Read full article...To fight this recession the Fed needs…soaring household spending to offset moribund business investment. [So] Alan Greenspan needs to create a housing bubble to replace the Nasdaq bubble.
Friday, February 08, 2013
U.S. Housing Market Recovery Hits a Brick Wall / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: EWI
In 2005, a mania for residential real estate reached such a fever pitch that a series of cable television shows became entirely devoted to house "flipping."
Flipping involves buying a worse-for-wear house, making the minimum repairs necessary, then turning right around and selling it - ideally for a fast and handsome profit.
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Wednesday, February 06, 2013
U.S. Housing Market Bubble Threat Means Sell These Stocks / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Money_Morning
The recent rumors of a housing bubble have chilled the recent rise in homebuilder stocks, which were one of the great stories of 2012.
They had underperformed badly for several years in a row as a result of the credit crisis. Foreclosures and other distressed properties were clogging the marketplace and there was very little demand for new homes. Many of the stocks were still losing money and almost all of the homebuilders traded for less than their book value.
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Tuesday, February 05, 2013
Signs of a New U.S. Housing Market Bubble? / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Money_Morning
Jeff Uscher writes: Investors have taken comfort from the recent improvement in housing prices seen across the country.
Shares of homebuilders, including Toll Brothers (NYSE: TOL), Lennar Corporation (NYSE: LEN) and the SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF (NYSE: XBH), had been bid up late in 2012 and into January.
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Friday, February 01, 2013
What Housing Market Recovery? 10.7 Million Homes Still Have Negative Equity / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Profit_Confidential
As I have written in these pages recently, the housing market is still missing the most important part: first-time homebuyers. We have large institutions buying up homes in bulk transactions instead of a good old-fashioned housing recovery where actual home occupants fuel the recovery.
Financial institutions like The Blackstone Group L.P. (NYSE/BX) are eating up the supply of foreclosed and empty homes and driving prices higher in the housing market. Why are they doing it? Because these big funds can’t get better returns elsewhere. Stock market? It’s too high. Bond market? It doesn’t pay enough. “Better buy cheap houses and get tenant money,” seems to be the new thinking.
Thursday, January 31, 2013
U.S. Housing Market Recovery Faces a Brick Wall - Flippers Flopping / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: EWI
In 2005, a mania for residential real estate reached such a fever pitch that a series of cable television shows became entirely devoted to house "flipping."
Flipping involves buying a worse-for-wear house, making the minimum repairs necessary, then turning right around and selling it - ideally for a fast and handsome profit.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, January 29, 2013
Is Buying U.S. Real Estate Now, Insanely Brilliant or Moronic? / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: LewRockwell
Mark R. Crovelli writes: As a graduate student and construction worker in San Diego from 2003-2005, I was afforded an up-close view of the inflation of the last real estate bubble. It was a truly exciting time to work in the building industry in Southern California because there was so much money sloshing around. I literally couldn’t even walk into Home Depot without being accosted by hordes of greedy homeowners and slippery contractors offering to pay cash to anyone willing to do construction work.
Tuesday, January 29, 2013
Are You A Good Candidate for a Reverse Mortgage? / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Don_Miller
Two of the top subjects that my Money Forever readers have asked us to cover are annuities, specifically how to pick the right one and covered in the November issue with a companion “how-to” special report (click here for how to get your copy), and reverse mortgages. My guess they’re seeing all those TV ads featuring Henry Winkler and Robert Wagner and wondering if it’s right for them.
Monday, January 21, 2013
Why the U.S. Housing Market Is “Home Sweet Home” / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: InvestmentContrarian
George Leong writes: It was extremely difficult times for homeowners following the subprime mortgage implosion that helped to drag down the global economy in 2008. I recall how easy it was to get a mortgage without even having to provide an income or work history to the lenders. When an entry-level worker at McDonalds Corporation (NYSE/MCD) can get a mortgage with no questions asked, you have to wonder how long it might be before a housing bubble surfaces.
Thursday, January 17, 2013
U.S. Housing Market Recovery Just Rescued 4 Million Homeowners / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Money_Morning
Ben Gersten writes: In further signs of a U.S. housing market recovery, home prices are up - meaning a whopping 33% fewer homeowners are underwater.
When the U.S. housing market bottomed out in 2008, nearly one in six homeowners owed more on mortgages than their homes were worth. That translated to 12 million underwater homeowners.
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Tuesday, January 15, 2013
Why It’s a “Fake” U.S. Housing Market Recovery / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Profit_Confidential
Michael Lombardi writes: Michael Lombardi writes: The U.S. housing market is becoming a main topic again in the mainstream media these days. I keep reading about how rising home prices will now get the U.S. economy going again.
Tuesday, January 15, 2013
US Housing Bear Market Over? House Prices Forecast 2013-2016 / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Has the US housing bear market ended ?
Follow the analysis to find out the answer including a detailed trend forecast covering over 3 years from 2013 to 2016.
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Saturday, January 12, 2013
U.S. Housing Real Estate Market House Prices Trend Forecast 2013 to 2016 / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Following the peak of the over leveraged US housing market bubble late 2006, the real estate market literally crashed during 2007 triggering the financial crisis that has acted to subsequently feed a multi-year bear market as a consequence of the subprime mortgage debacle that was magnified globally via toxic CDO packages that literally risked the bankruptcy of the whole global financial system starting in June 2007 when Bear Sterns bailed out one of its hedge funds, within a year Bear Sterns would effectively go bust as JPM picked it up for about 5% of its peak value that acted as a prelude to what was yet to come during 2008 for the likes of Lehman's that prompted tax payer bailouts right across the globe to prevent financial armageddon as the too big to fail banks only slowly revealed the extent to their exposure to the toxic mortgage backed securities in what amounted to the greatest fraud in history as investors had been duped into buying junk that the credit rating agencies typically rated as Triple A for a fee.
Friday, January 04, 2013
The Mortgage Forgiveness Debt Relief Act and Debt Cancellation / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Submissions
The Mortgage Debt Relief Act of 2007 is a temporary law that allows homeowners who have their mortgage debt reduced, either through restructuring, modification, short sale or foreclosure, not claim the forgiven debt amount as taxable income.
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Saturday, December 08, 2012
Will the U.S. Housing Market Recovery Continue? / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: InvestmentContrarian
Sasha Cekerevac writes: We have all heard the recent news that the housing market recovery is well on its way off the bottom. With home prices continuing to move up, many are questioning the long-term strength of the housing market. While there is no question that home prices have hit the lowest point and won’t return to those levels again, many are worried that they missed the housing market recovery, as prices have already risen significantly. I think there’s a few more years left for price appreciation in the housing market.
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Thursday, November 22, 2012
U.S. Housing Market Outlook 2013 / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: InvestmentContrarian
Sasha Cekerevac write: One of the most often talked about parts of the economy is the real estate market sector. Because real estate is such a large and important part of the economy, naturally, many eyes are focused on whether or not this market sector can and will rebound from its deep decline.
Wednesday, November 21, 2012
The FHA Is Just Another Thanksgiving Turkey Whose Time Has Come / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: moneymorning
Shah Gilani writes:
In 2008, when mortgage-backed securities bled rivers of red ink from the slaughtered subprime housing market, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac rolled over dead in their tracks.
Then, government geniuses scrambled to fix the crisis by pushing forward another sacrificial turkey.
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Monday, October 29, 2012
Impact on U.S. Housing Market Demand of Boomerang Students Returning Home / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Mike_Shedlock
According to a study by the U.S. Census Bureau Multigenerational households on rise in U.S.
More than 4.3 million, or 5.6 percent, of the 76 million family households in the U.S. today are multigenerational households, or families living together that include a grandparent, parent and children as well as other family members, according to a study by the U.S. Census Bureau's American Community Survey.
Wednesday, October 24, 2012
Protect Yourself from the U.S. Dollar Crisis With Land Investments / Stock-Markets / US Housing
By: DailyWealth
Porter Stansberry writes: In the last three years, precious metals have soared.
They're soaring in response to a prediction I've been making since 2008 – that the U.S. government will do everything in its power to prevent a deflation in asset prices. This includes the shameless printing of dollars in order to prop up our rotted banking system... which is the plan, according to the Fed's most recent statement, out last month.
Saturday, October 06, 2012
The Truth Behind the U.S. Housing Market / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: InvestmentContrarian
With yet another month of data, we’re seeing the continued recovery in the housing market. Research firm CoreLogic, Inc. (NYSE/CLGX) just reported that August home prices were up 4.6% from a year ago. This big increase in year-over-year home prices is the largest in six years.
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Thursday, October 04, 2012
Ben Bernanke's Misguided Focus on U.S. Housing Market is Like a Bad Joke / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Money_Morning
Keith Fitz-Gerald writes:
It's a little early for April Fools, but Ben Bernanke might just be a prankster at heart.
I say this because he recently told the Economic Club of Indiana in Indianapolis that the Fed's plans for QE3 would help create more economic activity and higher home prices. Then he added, almost as an afterthought, that this would help many more savers than it would hurt.
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Wednesday, September 26, 2012
Slowly Rising U.S. House Prices Positive for U.S. Economy / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Asha_Bangalore
The Case-Shiller Home Price Index (HPI) of 20 metro areas rose 0.4% in July, marking the sixth consecutive monthly increase. An alternate price measure such as the CoreLogic Home Price Index shows almost a similar trend. However, it should be noted that these gains are occurring from extraordinarily low levels (see chart below) and the underlying trend is one of slight deceleration, which reduces the optimism rendered by the headline, somewhat.
Thursday, September 20, 2012
US House Prices Bottom As BubbleomiX Predicted / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Andrew_Butter
Now The 1% Can Screw The 99%...Yippee!!It looks like US house prices have bottomed; this is the S&P Case-Shiller 20-City Index up to June 2012:
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Thursday, September 20, 2012
U.S. Housing Market Improvements Keep Trickling In / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Asha_Bangalore
Housing market developments (starts and sales of existing homes) in August stand out amid a recent string of bearish economic reports. Builders broke ground for construction of new single-family homes at a brisk pace (+5.5%) in August. From a low of 478,000 starts in April of 2009, total housing starts have moved up 57%. Still, this is a long way from the historical high of 2.27 million units in January 2006.
Monday, September 17, 2012
U.S. Housing Market Mortgage Rates Maintain Slow Decline Trend / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Submissions
Brent Wayne writes: Housing mortgage rates in September 2012 continue to maintain the slow decrease in rate amounts, maintain the historically low levels not seen for 60 years. Rates for a 30-year single detached house mortgage are being offered at an average 3.79 percent as of September 6, 2012. This low rate has held since May . Some loans are seeing 0.4 points added, but those with good credit are being offered the average rate without any major conditions.
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Sunday, September 09, 2012
U.S. Housing Market is the Most Awesome Opportunity in American History / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: DailyWealth
Dr. Steve Sjuggerud writes: The situation we're facing today can be boiled down to a few very simple points... And the result is an awesome investment opportunity.
It is possibly the greatest investing opportunity in American history...
Sunday, September 02, 2012
How to Invest in the Resurgent U.S. Housing Market / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: InvestmentContrarian
While there are still many pockets of weakness in the housing market, there are now some positives beginning to emerge. We’ve seen plenty of companies reporting that the higher end of the housing market is certainly rebounding strongly. Last week, Toll Brothers, Inc. (NYSE/TOL) reported quarterly earnings that were the highest since 2008. The company’s CEO stated that it is currently seeing the most sustained demand since 2008.
Thursday, August 23, 2012
Fixing the U.S. Mortgage Market Mess / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Ellen_Brown
Two landmark developments on August 16th give momentum to the growing interest of cities and counties in addressing the mortgage crisis using eminent domain:
(1) The Washington State Supreme Court held in Bain v. MERS, et al., that an electronic database called Mortgage Electronic Registration Systems (MERS) is not a “beneficiary” entitled to foreclose under a deed of trust; and
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Friday, August 17, 2012
U.S. Jobless Claims Analysis / Economics / US Housing
By: Asha_Bangalore
Initial jobless claims rose slightly (+2,000) to 366,000 during the week ended August 11. Distortions from summer auto plant shutdowns are in the past now, with the level of initial jobless claims now standing close to the levels posted in the early part of the year.
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Friday, August 17, 2012
U.S. Housing Market Starts Fall, Take Note of Composition / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Asha_Bangalore
Housing starts fell 1.1% during July to an annual rate of 746,000. This level is about 56% above the low (478,000) registered in April 2009. In July, new home building activity advanced in the multi-family sector (+12.4%) but declined in the single-family sector (-6.5%). Despite these mixed numbers, as Chart 1 indicates, there is a steady but small upward trend of total housing starts in place, with most of the gain occurring since early-2011.
Friday, August 10, 2012
Will Speculators Rescue the U.S. Housing Market? / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Sy_Harding
After the housing bubble burst there was sympathy for first-time home-buyers who had been enticed in by the easy loans and rising home prices and wound up in trouble.
But investors in single family homes came to be castigated as ‘flippers’, ‘suckers’, and worse. They had played a significant role in creating the bubble, signing contracts, often on multiple homes, making virtually no down payments, not intending to ever live in or even rent out the homes, but to simply flip them for a quick profit. Builders could hardly keep up with demand for a while, but wound up with wastelands of partially completed developments and condo projects, especially in the sun-belt states.
Friday, August 03, 2012
U.S. Housing Market Good News Keeps Rolling In / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Fred_Sheehan
"Positive Housing News Keeps Rolling In," exclaimed the headline of a July 24, 2012, Wall Street Journal story by Steven Russolillo. The author found much to praise. One gloomy Gus could not help but conclude otherwise. Old Gus holds the house market at bay, one reason being the great unknown of what will happen to house prices when Fannie and Freddie are no more. The GSEs (Government Sponsored Enterprises) are still a massive presence in the home mortgage market. Their full faith is due to the implicit U.S. government guarantee.
Thursday, July 26, 2012
Fall in New Home Sales Casts a Shadow on U.S. Housing Market / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Asha_Bangalore
Sales of new single-family homes fell 8.4% to an annual rate of 350,000 in June following upward revisions to both April and May sales numbers. The level of new home sales in the second quarter (363,000) is above the first quarter mark (352,000) mainly due to the sharp increase in sales recorded in May.
Friday, July 13, 2012
U.S. Housing Market: Share of Underwater Homes Trending Down / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Asha_Bangalore
The recovery of the housing market is another major concern of the Fed in addition to the labor market. Three years of economic recovery is yet to result in a meaningful turnaround of the housing sector. One of the pressing issues is the prevalence of home mortgages with negative equity. Negative equity (often referred to as homes with underwater mortgages) means that homes are worth less than what borrowers owe on their mortgages.
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Wednesday, June 27, 2012
Case-Shiller U.S. Home Price Index – Confirms Improvements Reported Elsewhere / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Asha_Bangalore
The seasonally adjusted Case-Shiller Home Price Index increased 0.67% in April, marking the third consecutive monthly increase. This is the first sustained gain since the recovery began three years ago, excluding the gains seen when the temporary first-time home buyer credit program was in place during an extended part of 2009 and 2010. Among the twenty metro areas tracked, seventeen of them showed an increase in the home price index, while home price gauges of Boston, Detroit, and New York slipped.
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Tuesday, June 26, 2012
U.S. New Home Sales Encouraging Signs / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Asha_Bangalore
Sales of new single-family homes rose 7.6% to an annual rate of 369,000 units, after a nearly steady reading in April. Regionally, sales of new homes fell in the Midwest (-10.6%) and West (-3.5%), while they moved up in the Northeast (+36.7%) and South (+12.7%).
Sunday, June 24, 2012
Key Reasons Why U.S. Housing Market is Not Coming Back: Demographics, Student Debt, No Jobs / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Mike_Shedlock
Consumers Not Ready to Borrow Again
Ben Bernanke is trying like mad to stimulate credit and lending but to no avail. It's an uphill debt because of demographics, student debt, and lack of jobs.
Citing falling debt-service needs, some economists think consumers may be ready to go on a borrowing. They are badly mistaken.
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Friday, June 22, 2012
U.S. Existing Homes Sales Slip, But Prices Show an Improvement / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Asha_Bangalore
Sales of all existing homes fell 1.5% to an annual rate of 4.55 million units in May following an increase in April. Purchases of single-family existing homes declined 1.0% to an annual rate of 4.05 million. Sales of existing homes rose 1.0% in Midwest but dropped in the Northeast (-4.8%), South (-0.6%), and West (-3.4%) during May. The sales mark of existing homes has risen nearly 21% from the low in November 2008 but it has been a long four-year journey. The swings in home sales when the first-time home buyer credit program was in place are excluded from consideration.
Tuesday, May 29, 2012
U.S. House Price Index Maintains a Slow Improvement Trend / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Asha_Bangalore
The Case-Shiller home price index rose 0.1% in March, after a 0.2% gain in the prior month. The back-to-back monthly increase is noteworthy because one gains of this sort were seen several ago, excluding the period when the first-time home buyer program was in place. On a year-to-year basis, the quarterly Case-Shiller home price index posted a 1.9% decline in first quarter (see Chart 3). The Corelogic Home Price Index shows a nearly similar improvement in the first quarter (-1.7%, see Chart 3).
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Sunday, May 27, 2012
"Crash is Over", U.S. Housing Market has Bottom Declared / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: EWI
"The crash is over", says an economist. "Housing can only go up," says another. "I think the market has bottomed out," says one builder. "It appears we have turned the proverbial corner," says a second.
Wednesday, May 23, 2012
U.S. Housing Market Bulls vs Bears Showdown / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Bloomberg
**HOUSING SHOWDOWN: Housing bear Gary Shilling and housing bull Mark Kiesel of PIMCO debated the state of the U.S. housing market on Bloomberg Television's "Street Smart" with Trish Regan and Adam Johnson.
Shilling said that housing prices will decline 20% this year because "there are 2 million inventories, both visible and shadow inventories, over and above normal working levels", which is "a tremendous overhang." He went on to say that "excess inventories are the mortal enemy of prices."
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Wednesday, May 23, 2012
U.S. Housing Market Is Stabilizing / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Asha_Bangalore
Sales of existing homes rose 4.6% in April to annualized rate of 3.4 million units, following decline in February and March. Purchases of single-family existing homes rose 3.0% to an annual rate of 4.09 million units. The April sales tally of existing homes is the best in the entire recovery excluding the spikes recorded when the first-time home buyer credit program was underway and sales readings of January 2012. On a 3-month moving average basis, sales of existing single-family homes have been essentially flat.
Tuesday, May 08, 2012
Getting Ahead of the Competition or Is U.S. Commercial Real Estate Market about to Crash? / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Ron_Jaenisch
Trading is a craft. It is part art and part science. in order to succeed in trading one needs to recognize what is probable to occur in the future and be ahead of others in related fields.
An excellent example for this focus is the Chart of CBG. This is an excellent international firm profiting from commercial real estate turnover and value growth, as a result of thier activities. Their future is tied to the profitability of Commercial Real Estate, as well as being ahead of their competitor Advanced Market Consulting who has an excellent reputation with a lower cost structure.
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Friday, April 27, 2012
Another U.S. Housing Market Indicator Pointing to a Turnaround / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Asha_Bangalore
The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI) of the National Association of Realtors increased 4.1% to 101.4 in March, the highest since April 2010. The PHSI reflects contracts not actual closings of sales of existing homes and typically lead actual sales by 1-2 months.
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Wednesday, April 25, 2012
Is This the U.S. Housing Market Bottom? / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Money_Morning
Don Miller writes:
Analysts, government officials and certainly homebuyers are spending hours trying to figure out if we have reached the housing market bottom.
Yesterday's (Tuesday's) data would seem to suggest the bottom is a bit bumpier than most people think.
According to the S&P/Case-Shiller home price index of 20 cities, home prices declined 3.5% from a year ago, while the 10-city composite slipped 3.6%. That meant fresh new post-bubble lows for home prices.
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Wednesday, April 25, 2012
Improving U.S. Housing Market? / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Asha_Bangalore
Sales of new homes fell 7.1% in March to an annual rate of 328,000, hold your breath and don’t be disappointed. The level of sales would have been much lower if the sales of new homes of February had not been revised to an annual rate of 353,000 from the earlier estimate of 313,000 and January’s sales was 318,000 and not 329,000 as the report shows today. Essentially, there were upward revisions of new home sales from December (small upward revision) through February, which has changed the recent trend of new home sales. The 6-month moving average of new home sales has risen to 331,000 in March, up 13.7% from a low of 291,000 in October of 2010 (see Chart 1). So, the good news is there is a small pickup in sales of new homes.
Saturday, April 21, 2012
U.S. Housing Market Sector – Why the Fed Depicts it as "Depressed" / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Asha_Bangalore
The National Association of Realtors published existing home sales data for March; it was down. But, the strength of January home sales gave a lift to the quarterly read. Housing starts data for March show a drop in new homebuilding activity but the first quarter average shows a gain of 10.5%. New home sales numbers will be published on April 24. Sales of new homes fell in January and February, a sharp increase in March sales will be necessary to give a boost to the quarterly average. These numbers need to be viewed in a historical context to evaluate the current status of the housing sector.
Tuesday, April 10, 2012
Outlook for the Busted U.S. Housing Market, Cheapest Prices in 40 Years / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: LewRockwell
Addison Wiggin. writes: A little more than a year ago, a very successful professional investor declared, “If you don’t own a home, buy one. If you own one home, buy another one, and if you own two homes, buy a third and lend your relatives the money to buy a home.”
Tuesday, April 03, 2012
Where Would Warren Buffett Invest Today? / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Money_Morning
Jason Simpkins writes:
If Warren Buffett was going to invest in anything right now, where would he put his money?
At first, that question may be difficult to answer. But if you think about Buffett's classic investment approach - focusing on real assets with a reliable return and prizing valuation - it gets a little easier.
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Wednesday, March 28, 2012
U.S. House Prices Index Maintains Downward Trend / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Asha_Bangalore
The seasonally adjusted Case-Shiller Home Price Index held steady in January. Among the 20 metro areas that the index tracks, eight metros reported increases in prices (Seattle, Tampa, Miami, Washington, Minneapolis, Phoenix, Dallas, and Denver) during January, while it was unchanged in Boston and Las Vegas, and fell in the remaining metros.
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Saturday, March 24, 2012
U.S. Housing Market New Home Sales Show Disappointing Performance / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Asha_Bangalore
Sales of new single-family homes fell 1.6% to an annual rate of 313,000 in February. The level of single-family home sales is up 12.6% from the historical low of 278,000 registered in August 2010 (see Chart 1). Sales of new homes rose in the Northeast (+14.3%) and West (+8.0%) but fell in the Midwest (-2.4%) and South (-7.2%).
Friday, March 23, 2012
New Wave of Foreclosures Will Sink the U.S. Housing Market Rebound / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Money_Morning
David Zeiler writes:
The long-anticipated housing market rebound will hit a speed bump this year as the number of foreclosures rises again.
With January's mammoth $26 billion settlement between five major banks and a group of state attorneys general, foreclosures that had been held up for a year or more are now moving forward.
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Sunday, March 18, 2012
U.S. Foreclosure Fraud Settlement Documents Highlight Lawlessness of the Banks / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Barry_Grey
On Monday, the settlement between five major banks and the federal and state governments of foreclosure-related fraud charges was filed in federal district court in Washington, DC. The agreement must be approved by the court to take effect.
The settlement, reported to be worth $25 billion, was announced February 9 and hailed by President Obama as a serious rebuke to the banks and boon to distressed homeowners. (See: “Obama administration brokers pro-bank mortgage fraud settlement”).
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Thursday, March 15, 2012
Real Estate 4 Ran$om: Role of Speculation in the Financial Collapse - Patience and Finance / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Jesse
This is an Australian produced film, but the principles carry.
I would not focus on land to the exclusion of financial assets like stocks, and other vehicles for producing income and capital gains, that allow speculators to game the system.
Sunday, March 11, 2012
Evolving Global Financial Crisis, Selling "Foreclosed Homes" / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Bob_Chapman
The government is preparing to package and sell foreclosed homes. We do not know what discount to the current market there will be but you can guess it will be 20% or more. This event will cause home prices to trend lower dependent on whether the houses are put up for sale or rented. These homes will only be available to big buyers such as hedge funds and others with enormous amounts of capital. It is expected that the homes will be sold in lots of 5,000 to 10,000 and the minimum bid would be $1 billion. This is corporatist fascists busy at work.
Thursday, March 08, 2012
Is a House Ever a Good Investment? / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Casey_Research
Vedran Vuk, Casey Research writes: Recently, my parents were considering purchasing some real estate. As the financial professional in the family, they asked me, "What do you think? Will it go up in value? You know… not now, but eventually?" I've heard the same thing over and over again. In response, I shared my opinion: "Would you pay the current market price to live there even if its value never increased?" If the answer is yes, buy the property." Essentially, is the house worth it as a home, not as an investment?
Wednesday, February 29, 2012
America's Credit and Housing Crisis: New State Bank Bills / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Ellen_Brown
Seventeen states have now introduced bills for state-owned banks, and others are in the works. Hawaii’s innovative state bank bill addresses the foreclosure mess. County-owned banks are being proposed that would tackle the housing crisis by exercising the right of eminent domain on abandoned and foreclosed properties. Arizona has a bill that would do this for homeowners who are current in their payments but underwater, allowing them to refinance at fair market value.
Wednesday, February 29, 2012
U.S. House Prices Continue to Maintain Downward Trend / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Asha_Bangalore
The Case-Shiller Home Price Index (HPI) slipped 0.5% in December on a seasonally adjusted basis. The level of the index is the lowest since January 2003 (see Chart 2). Of the 20 metro areas, Phoenix (+1.5%), Miami (+0.2%), Tampa (+0.2%), Dallas (+0.2%), Portland (+0.1%), Denver (+0.1%), and Charlotte (+0.1%) recorded increases of varying sizes in December. Among the other metro areas that showed decreases in home prices, the largest declines were in Detroit (-3.5%), Atlanta (-1.3%) and Chicago (-1.1%), while San Francisco was the only metro area to show a nearly steady reading.
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Monday, February 27, 2012
Has the U.S. Housing Market Finally Bottomed? / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Money_Morning
Martin Hutchinson writes:
It was the most atrocious bubble in U.S. history pushing tens of millions of Americans into financial misery.
Even today, the last of the lawsuits have yet to be filed.
But five years later it's finally coming back.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, February 25, 2012
U.S. January New Home Sales Moving Sideways But Record Low Number of Homes for Sale Raises Expectations of New Construction / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Asha_Bangalore
Sales of new homes slipped 0.9% to an annual rate of 321,000 in January. Purchases of new homes have moved around 311,000 to 324,000 for the last four months. Combined sales of new and existing homes have risen in the last three out of four months, largely due to the relatively strong performance of existing home sales.
Thursday, February 23, 2012
U.S. January Existing Homes Sales Many Housing Market Positive Developments / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Asha_Bangalore
Sales of all existing homes – condominiums, townhouses, and single-family homes – rose 4.3% to an annual rate of 4.57 million homes in January, up about 35% from the 3.39 million low of November 2008. Sales of all existing homes plunged 52% between January 2005 (7.1 million units) and November of 2008 (see Chart 1). Sales of single-family existing homes increased 3.9% to an annual rate of 4.05 million units, marking the third increase in the last three months. Sales of existing homes advanced in all four regions of the nation, with the West (+8.8%) recording the largest gain among the four regions.
Monday, February 20, 2012
From Riches to Rags, the U.S. Housing Market Crash and Bankruptcy / Politics / US Housing
By: LewRockwell
Brad C writes: My experience with a tax audit, real estate crash, rental house woes, foreclosures, layoff and bankruptcy:
In a nutshell, we went from a 4,000 square foot home, worth more than $1 million, a vacation home, new RV, Mercedes convertible, Jeep, $50,000 SUV, 20 rental properties, a property management company and a great full time job... To living in a modest rental house in the middle of nowhere.
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Sunday, February 19, 2012
U.S. Housing Busts and Obama's Report To Congress / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: DK_Matai
The 2012 Economic Report of the US President published by the Whitehouse for the Congress contains a startling chart in chapter 4 "Stabilizing and Healing the Housing Market". Red = The Great Unwind: start 2007; Blue = New England bust: start 1989; Orange = California bust: start 1990; and Green = The Great Depression: start 1930. What does comparing housing busts in US history suggest?
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Friday, February 17, 2012
Obama's Housing Market Refi Program Won't Work Because the FHA is Insolvent / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Money_Morning
Shah Gilani writes:
In his State of the Union address last month, President Barack Obama outlined a plan to let homeowners, especially those underwater, refinance older mortgages to take advantage of today's low rates.
While serious political impediments stand in the way of the Obama refi plan, one reason it won't work is that it relies 100% on the Federal Housing Administration (FHA).
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Friday, February 17, 2012
U.S. Housing Market Starts, Jobless Claims, and Wholesale Price Index – Mixed Bag / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Asha_Bangalore
January Housing Starts: It is a Multi-Family Story
Total housing starts increased 1.5% to an annual rate of 699,000 in January. The entire gain came from an 8.5% jump in starts of multi-family units to an annual rate of 191,000. New construction of single-family units slipped 1.0% to 508,000.
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Tuesday, February 14, 2012
Arbitraging Fed Policies With U.S. Rental Housing Market Cash Flows / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Dan_Amerman
By forcing interest rates to record low levels, the Federal Reserve has effectively vaporized most interest income along with most of the ability to benefit from compound interest, with devastating results for many retirees, retirement investors and pension funds.
However, in the process of creating artificially low interest rates for an entire economy, the Fed has also opened up unusually profitable opportunities for individual investors with certain types of investments. Record-low interest rate levels are the most powerful of six different factors that are currently working together to increase owner cash flows from the purchase (or refinancing) of investment real estate in the United States.
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Wednesday, February 08, 2012
Banking, U.S. Housing Market and Mortgages / Politics / US Housing
By: BATR
The primary players that caused the housing bubble are:
Read full article... Read full article...1) The banking institutions that bundled and sold very risky mortgages
2) The Wall Street firms that bought these instruments and hedged for a default hazard by booking speculative derivative insurance that could never pay off on massive defaults
3) Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac provided government backing, of last resort, on bad mortgages
Sunday, February 05, 2012
U.S. Home Foreclosures and Shadow Banking: Why All the "Robo-signing"? / Politics / US Housing
By: Ellen_Brown
A foreclosure settlement between five major banks guilty of robo-signing and the attorneys general of the 50 states is pending for Monday, February 6th; but it is still not clear if all the AGs will sign. California was to get over half of the $25 billion in settlement money, and California AG Kamala Harris has withstood pressure to settle.
Friday, January 27, 2012
The Next U.S. Housing Market Bailout / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Mike_Whitney
Why are housing prices falling when the number of houses on the market continues to decline? Usually, when supply shrinks, then prices rise, right? So, why isn’t that happening now?
The reason is that housing market never completely cleared, which is to say that the Fed’s interventions and the manipulation of inventory by the banks prevented the market from finding a bottom. So, now– a full 6 years after the peak in home sales in 2006–the real estate depression continues while prices drift lower still. And–here’s the bad part–no one knows how much farther prices will drop, because the existing inventory of homes on the market (according to the Wall Street Journal) is presently 1.89 million while the shadow inventory (according to CoreLogic)… is “1.6 million units” which represents another 5 months supply, “the same level as reported in July 2011.”
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Friday, January 27, 2012
U.S. Housing Market Sales of New Homes Dips by 2.2% / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Asha_Bangalore
Sales of new single-family homes fell 2.2% to an annual rate of 307,000 in December, putting the annual average at 303,000 units. The tally of sales of new single-family homes in 2011 is the lowest on record (see Chart 1).
Wednesday, January 25, 2012
Home Depot Options Strategy to Play the Housing Market Bottom / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Money_Morning
Larry D. Spears writes:
After more than two years of false starts, the battered U.S. housing market may have finally found a bottom.
If so, that prospect offers options investors a chance to earn higher returns on lower costs using a Home Depot (NYSE: HD) straddle. (More on that later...)
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, January 21, 2012
U.S. Housing Market Sales of Existing Homes Slow Growth, Price Declines Moderating / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Asha_Bangalore
Sales of existing homes rose 4.6% to an annual rate 4.61 million units in December, which takes the annual sales to 4.293 million units. Sales numbers of 2009 and early part of 2010 reflect the impact of the first-time home buyer program. The cycle low for sales of existing homes excluding the swings related to the first-time home buyer program was 3.77 million units for all homes and 3.39 million units for single-family, which occurred in November 2008. With reference to this benchmark, sales of existing single-family homes have moved up 21% in roughly three years.
Monday, January 16, 2012
U.S. Housing Market the Greatest Contrarian Investment Play of 2012 / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Investment_U
“Real estate prices may be bottoming out.” – Robert Shiller
Over the weekend, I attended the annual American Economic Association (AEA) meetings in Chicago, and ran into Yale economist and long-time friend Robert Shiller at a luncheon.
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Saturday, January 14, 2012
U.S. Housing Market Foreclosure-to-Rental Screwjob / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Mike_Whitney
Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke wants US taxpayers to purchase more of the garbage loans and mortgage-backed securities (MBS) that the big banks still have on their books. (Cash for trash) That’s the impetus behind the Fed’s 26-page white paper that was delivered to Congress last Wednesday. The document outlines the Fed’s plan for ‘stabilizing the housing market’, which is a phrase that Bernanke employs when he wants to provide more buy-backs, giveaways, subsidies and other corporate welfare to big finance.
Thursday, January 12, 2012
US Housing Sector Returns / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Donald_W_Dony
The latest evidence of the rebounding US economy appears in the housing sector. This once battered area has recently jumped to life with housing related sectors providing the best performance on the S&P 500.
Over the last three or four months, industry groups that supply home construction, equipment, financing and renovations have lead the charge on the recovery.
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Wednesday, January 11, 2012
Distressed Properties Continue to Hold Down U.S. House Prices / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Asha_Bangalore
The CoreLogic Home Price Index inclusive of distressed properties (foreclosures and short sales) fell 4.3% from a year ago after showing a decelerating trend in the three months ended October. Excluding distressed properties, the CoreLogic Home Prices fell only 0.6% from a year ago and it shows of stabilizing (see Chart 4).
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Friday, January 06, 2012
Hidden Mortgage Tax Gives Congress Another Way to Pick Your Pocket / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Money_Morning
David Zeiler writes:
Americans had better enjoy the extra $40 they'll continue to get in their biweekly paychecks for the next two months, because most of them will be paying for it many times over in the form of higher mortgage costs.
Lost in the contentious debate over the payroll tax cut extension - a 2% cut in U.S. workers' Social Security tax - was the devious way Congress devised to pay for it.
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Tuesday, December 20, 2011
U.S. Housing Market Overview / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Mike_Stathis
The real estate market continues to show little signs of life. Despite record-low mortgage rates and a collapse in home prices, builders see little demand for new homes due to the record-high overhang of existing homes on the market, including the record-high level of foreclosed properties (4.29% of all active loans) which have continued to gain most attention from buyers due to much lower prices.
Even more disturbing is that the fact new foreclosures are outpacing foreclosure sales by a factor of 3 to 1. This means that the existing home inventory due to foreclosures is growing by 3 times the rate of foreclosure sales.
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Friday, December 09, 2011
U.S. Household Net Worth Posts Second Quarterly Drop / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Asha_Bangalore
Household net worth fell 4.1% in the third quarter (see Chart 2), after a 0.2% drop in the second quarter; year-to-date, net worth of households has dropped 2.5% to $57.35 trillion. Lower equity prices were the main reason the decline in net worth, while real estate made a positive contribution.
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Wednesday, December 07, 2011
U.S. House Prices Show a Small Improvement in October / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Asha_Bangalore
The CoreLogic House Price Index fell 3.9% from a year ago in October; excluding distressed homes, home prices dropped 0.5%. The CoreLogic Home Price Index of non-distressed properties rose 0.9% in October vs. September. The good news is that the pace of decline has slowed and the price index of non-distressed homes is almost stabilizing on a year-to-year basis (see Chart 8).
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Tuesday, November 29, 2011
U.S. October New Home Sales Reports Positive Aspects / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Asha_Bangalore
Sales of new single-family homes increased 1.3% in October to an annual rate of 307,000, with gains in sales recorded in the Midwest (+22.2%) and West (+14.9%). Sales of new single family homes in the Northeast held steady and declined 9.5% in the South. The level of new single-family home sales during October remains close to the record low of 278,000 registered in August 2010 (see Chart 1). Nevertheless, there are many positives to note in the October new home sales report.
Monday, November 28, 2011
Taking a Loss on Your House Sale, Time to Hit the Reset Button on Life / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: DailyWealth
Dr. Steve Sjuggerud writes: "We're going to have to write a big check to get out of our house," a friend told me.
He's moving far away from here.
Monday, November 28, 2011
U.S. Foreclosure Fraud in a Nutshell, How Average Joe's Home Was Stolen / Politics / US Housing
By: LewRockwell
Bill Butler writes: The untold story in the foreclosure crisis unfolding across America is that, following a foreclosure perpetrated by one of the October 2008 Bailout Banks (e.g. Bank of America, Citibank, JPMorgan, Wells Fargo) Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac suddenly appear as the record owner of Average Joe’s home. These federal government sponsored entities then go into local housing court and get a court order authorizing them to evict Joe. If Joe resists, these supposedly charitable institutions obtain a writ ordering the local sheriff to forcibly remove Joe from his home.
Friday, November 18, 2011
Gold House Price Ratio Falls To Historic Low / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Dan_Amerman
In gold terms, an average single family home in the United States can now be purchased for only 18% of its pre-bubble price in 2001. The term "pre-bubble" merits emphasis: the average house can be purchased at an 82% discount (in ounces of gold) not from the peak real estate values of 2006, but the much lower home prices of 2001, before the real estate bubble began.
Friday, November 18, 2011
U.S. Initial Jobless Claims, Improvement is Small but Notable / Economics / US Housing
By: Asha_Bangalore
Initial jobless claims fell 5,000 to 388,000 during the week ended November 12. Initial jobless claims have dropped during four out of the last six weeks and they are close to the low of 375,000 for 2011 registered during the week ended February 26 (see Chart 4). The initial jobless claims reading of the latest week is a noteworthy improvement. However, larger declines are necessary to say with confidence that the labor market has crossed the threshold of concern.
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Friday, November 18, 2011
U.S. Housing Market Sideways Trend Reflects Underlying Soft Labor Market Situation / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Asha_Bangalore
Builders broke ground to construct new single-family homes (+3.9%) in October, but starts of multi-family units slipped 8.3%. Total housing starts fell slightly (-0.3%) to an annual rate of 628,000 in October. The important point to note is that total and single-family starts of new homes continue to hover around levels seen in the past recession (see Chart 1), which are also historical lows. Starts of single-family units stood at 430,000 in October 2011 vs. 353,000 in March 2009 (historical low).
Monday, November 07, 2011
Obama's Housing Plan: Subsidizing the Terminally Stupid / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Money_Morning
Martin Hutchinson writes:
President Obama on Oct. 24 announced yet another housing bailout.
This time, borrowers who are underwater by more than 25%, are on time with their payments, and have Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac mortgages dating before March 2009 will be allowed to refinance their home mortgages at cheaper rates.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, October 27, 2011
Sales of New U.S. Homes Rose in September, But Trend is Unimpressive / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Asha_Bangalore
Sales of new single-family homes rose 5.7% to an annual rate of 309,000 in September, the second highest level for the year after the 316,000 mark seen in April. The picture is less impressive when we put things in a historical perspective. The 3-month moving average of existing home sales at 302,000 has held nearly steady since mid-2010 (see Chart 1) after the first-time home buyer program expired.
Wednesday, October 26, 2011
U.S. August Home Prices Small but Noteworthy Improvement / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Asha_Bangalore
The seasonally adjusted Case-Shiller Price Index held steady in August compared with July. On a year-to-year basis, the index fell 3.8%, the smallest decline since February 2011. The FHFA House Price Index of August dropped 4.0% from a year ago, the smallest reduction since December 2010.
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Tuesday, October 25, 2011
Will Modified Program to Alleviate U.S. Residential Housing Mortgage Problems Raise Consumer Spending? / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Asha_Bangalore
The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA), the regulator of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and the 12 Federal Home Loan Banks, announced a modification of the original Home Affordable Refinance Program (HARP) passed in 2009. The main objective is to make refinancing easier for people with mortgages backed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. HARP allows borrowers whose mortgage is worth more than the current value of their homes to refinance and take advantage of the low interest rate environment. CoreLogic estimates that currently 22.6% of mortgages (10.8 million mortgages) exceed the current value of homes (also referred to as under water mortgages or mortgages with negative equity).
Friday, October 21, 2011
U.S. Housing Sector Needs a Supportive Nudge / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Asha_Bangalore
Sales of existing homes, inclusive of condos, fell 3.0% in September to an annual rate of 5.03 million units after an 8.4% increase in August. Sales of existing single-family homes dropped 3.6% to an annual rate of 4.47 million units in September vs. a 9.0% jump in August. As Chart 1 indicates, sales of existing homes are far from the peak registered in 2005 and are very close to cycle lows seen in 2008 (The wide swings in home sales in 2009-10 are related to the temporary first-time home buyer credit program).
Wednesday, October 12, 2011
A Decade of Household Deleveraging? / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Asha_Bangalore
The recent trend of consumer spending is lackluster and, in fact, worrisome such that Chairman Bernanke has mentioned it in speeches over the past month. Real disposable personal income has posted a meager 0.3% gain in August 2011 (see Chart 1) and consumer spending shows a noticeably decelerating trend. The obvious reply to answers about the reasons for soft growth in consumer spending is related to lack of hiring.
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Monday, October 03, 2011
U.S. The Housing Market is Finally Bottoming, Here's How to Play It / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Money_Morning
Martin Hutchinson writes:
The housing market remains a drag on the economy, but there are indications that it is finally starting to bottom.
Prices have stopped declining, and there is even some sign of life in sales.
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Monday, October 03, 2011
U.S. House Prices, Expect Lower Lows / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Bill_Bonner
Cash is still king. Cash is king because non-cash is a commoner and a loser…it’s losing its value. An article in the Financial Times, for example, tells that:
“US inflation expectations at lowest point in year.”
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Tuesday, September 27, 2011
Case-Shiller Home Price Index - Noteworthy Improvement, But Durability is Uncertain / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Asha_Bangalore
The seasonally adjusted Case-Shiller Home Price Index held steady in July, matching the readings of the prior two months. These readings are a significant improvement after the string of declines of home prices seen for an extended period (see Chart 1). The gains in 2009 and 2010 are related to the first-home buyer program which was in place only for a short period. The encouraging news is that the FHFA House Price Index shows price gains for each of the four months ended July and the Core Logic House Price Index posted increases in three out of the last four months.
Tuesday, September 27, 2011
U.S. August New Home Sales Still Hovering around Recession Lows / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Asha_Bangalore
Sales of new single-family homes fell 2.3% to an annual rate of 295,000 in August, which marks the sixth monthly decline in the first eight months of the year and the level of sales remains close to the record low of 278,000 seen precisely a year ago. Sales of new homes fell in the Northeast (-13.6%), West (-6.3%), and South (-2.4%) but rose in the Midwest (+8.2%) during August.
Friday, September 23, 2011
U.S. House Prices Rise for Fourth Month / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Asha_Bangalore
The FHFA House Price Index rose 0.8% in July, marking the fourth monthly increase. The Core-Logic House Price Index also has posted gains in the each of the four months ended July (see Chart 5). Both these price indexes show a moderation of year-to-year price declines (see Chart 6), with the July drop being less negative than the June readings.
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Thursday, September 22, 2011
Sales of Existing U.S. Homes Recover, But Level Still Close to Recession Low / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Asha_Bangalore
Sales of all existing homes rose 7.7% to an annual rate of 5.03 million units. Single-family unit sales were stronger (+8.5%). Regionally, sales of existing homes increased in all four regions, with the nearly 19% jump in the West as the largest gain. From a year ago, sales of existing single-family homes have posted double-digit gains in July and August because of a base effect. Sales of existing homes in July-August 2010 fell sharply after the first-time home buyer credit program expired. Therefore, the year-to-year comparisons partly exaggerate the trend of existing homes sales.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, September 21, 2011
U.S. Home Construction Declines, Permits Post a Small Gain / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Asha_Bangalore
Construction of new homes and apartments fell 5.0% to an annual rate of 571,000 during August after a 2.3% drop in the prior month. Starts of both multi-family (-13.5%) and single-family starts (-1.4%) fell in August. The disappointing news is that the level of housing starts continues to hover at recession lows. The nearly 30% drop of housing starts in the Northeast and a 3.3% drop in the South brought down the headline, while housing starts rose in the Midwest (+2.6%) and West (+2.2%).
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Thursday, September 08, 2011
Time To 'Invest' in Real Estate Again? / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Bill_Bonner
“And they shall grind the face of the poor…” ~ Isaiah
The markets were closed yesterday. Which was a good thing. The lights were out in Congress. Economists went to barbecues. Central bankers stayed home with their families. And investors didn’t bother to check their blackberries to find the latest prices.
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Tuesday, August 30, 2011
U.S. Pending Home Sales Index Slips in July / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Asha_Bangalore
The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI) of the National Association of Realtors fell 1.3% in July, after two monthly gains. The PHSI leads actual sales of existing homes by 1-2 months. The July drop of the index bodes poorly for actual sales of homes in August and September. Sales of existing homes have posted declines in three out of the four months ended July. The level of existing home sales is close to recession lows even after two years of economic recovery.
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Wednesday, August 24, 2011
Sales of U.S. New Homes Still Holding Close to Recession Lows / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Asha_Bangalore
Sales of new single-family homes fell 0.7% to an annual rate of 298,000 in July following downwardly revised readings for May (309,000 vs. 315,000) and June (300,000 vs. 312,000). The level of new home sales is close to the record low registered in August 2010 (see Chart 1).
Wednesday, August 03, 2011
U.S. Housing Market Rebound Unlikely Anytime Soon / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Money_Morning
David Zeiler writes:
Dragged down by such anchors as a bulging pipeline of foreclosures and a dearth of buyers, it will be many more months - if not years - before a housing market rebound takes hold.
Symptoms of the limping U.S. economy, primarily an unemployment rate above 9% and weak consumer confidence, along with much stricter lending rules, have helped keep buyers scarce.
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Monday, August 01, 2011
The Next Down Leg of the U.S. Housing Bear Market has Begun / Economics / US Housing
By: Clif_Droke
Now that the latest round of quantitative easing (QE) has ended, it's time to take stock of whether inflation or deflation is likely to gain the upper hand going forward.
The Fed's monetary stimulus efforts of the last three years have done nothing to help what is arguably the biggest symptom of long-term deflation, namely the housing market. It's important to recall that the final "hard down" portion of the 60-year cycle of inflation/deflation cycle began with a collapse of real estate prices. The real estate bear market has been the chief evidence of deflation in the U.S. for the housing market prior to the crash represented the biggest form of savings for most Americans.
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Tuesday, July 26, 2011
U.S. Housing Market in Gold, 70% to 80% Price Crash / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Adrian_Ash
Inflationary or deflationary depression, it's like the long boom of affordable mortgages never happened...
SO IS the U.S. housing market nearing its low? Priced against gold it just might be.
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Wednesday, July 20, 2011
Sales of Existing U.S. Homes Fall, Partly Due to Cancellations / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Asha_Bangalore
Sales of existing homes declined 0.8% to an annual rate of 4.77 million units in June. The cycle low for sales of existing homes, excluding the swings related to the first-time home buyer credit program, is 4.5 million units, recorded in November 2008. Effectively, sales of existing homes have risen 6.0% from the cycle low mark (see Chart 1). Sales of single-family homes held steady at 4.24 million in June, up 5.5% from the cycle low reading of 4.02 million in November 2008.
Wednesday, July 20, 2011
U.S. Home Construction Advanced in June, But Inadequate to Declare the Housing Market Recovery is Here / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Asha_Bangalore
Housing starts rose 14.6% to an annual rate of 629,000 in June, the first increase since March. Construction of single-family units moved up 9.4% to annual rate of 453,000 in June, the highest level since October 2010. These improvements in home building activity are a positive development but the level of total housing starts is about 72% below the peak registered in January 2006 (2.273 million units).
Thursday, June 30, 2011
Chinese Homebuyers Throw a Life Raft to the U.S. Housing Market / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Money_Morning
Jason Simpkins writes:
From New York to Honolulu, Chinese homebuyers are swooping in to help salvage the U.S. housing market.
Indeed, California, Florida, New York, and even Hawaii have seen a marked up-tick in home sales to Chinese buyers who are exporting their country's real estate boom to the United States, according to Bloomberg News.
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Thursday, June 30, 2011
U.S. Housing Market Few Positives Remain Inadequate / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Asha_Bangalore
The National Association of Realtors reported an 8.2% jump of the Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI) in May to 88.8. The PHSI when advanced by two months tracks sales of existing homes closely (see Chart 1).
Wednesday, June 29, 2011
U.S. House Price Indexes Stability? / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Asha_Bangalore
Latest reports on home prices are somewhat encouraging. The Case-Shiller Home Price Index (HPI) of April edged down 0.1% on a seasonally adjusted basis and advanced 0.7% on a seasonally unadjusted basis from March. The seasonally adjusted drop of the Case-Shiller HPI is smallest since July 2010.
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Monday, June 27, 2011
Why U.S. House Prices Are Still Falling / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Janet_Tavakoli
In October 2007, CNBC's Diana Olick called me about Countrywide's so-called plan to modify mortgage loans scheduled to reset to higher rates. Subprime borrowers with a strong payment history would be able to refinance and possibly get prime FHA loans. Current paying borrowers with credit issues would be offered Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac loans under a new expanded program.
Friday, June 24, 2011
Disappointing Trend of U.S. Home Sales Leaves Housing Sector at Top of Fed’s Watch List / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Asha_Bangalore
Sales of new homes fell 2.1% in May to an annual rate of 319,000. The level of home sales is still close to the recession/record low of 278,000 registered in August 2010. Sales of new homes plunged nearly 27% in the Northeast, held steady in the Midwest, fell in the West (-3.5%) and rose in the South (+2.4%).
Wednesday, June 22, 2011
U.S. Existing Home Sales Decline, Housing Market Slump Continues / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Asha_Bangalore
Sales of existing homes fell 3.8% to an annual rate of 4.81 million units in May, the lowest level since November 2010. As shown in Chart 1, the sales mark of existing home sales remains close to recession lows after two years of an economic recovery. On a regional basis, sales of existing homes fell in the Northeast (-2.5%), Midwest (-6.4%), and South (-5.1%) but held steady in the West.
Friday, June 10, 2011
How the Housing Market Can Save the U.S. Economy / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Money_Morning
Shah Gilani writes:
Everyone knows that the U.S. housing market caused the current economic funk.
But here's the irony: The American housing market - a principal actor and victim of a bubble that burst, causing the worst recession since the Great Depression - may now be in a position to save the U.S. economy.
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Monday, June 06, 2011
U.S. House Price Crash Worse than the Great Depression, How Much Lower Will they Go? / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Washingtons_Blog
I noted in January that the housing slump is worse than during the Great Depression.
The Wall Street Journal noted Tuesday:
Read full article... Read full article...The folks at Capital Economics write in with this gloomy tidbit: “The further fall in house prices in the first quarter means that, on the Case-Shiller index, prices have now fallen by more than they did during the Great Depression.”
Friday, June 03, 2011
How to Fix the U.S. Housing Market / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Money_Morning
Shah Gilani writes:
If this week's economic reports showed us anything, it's the fact that two years into what's supposed to be an economic recovery, the U.S. housing market remains on life support.
But here's what those reports didn't tell you: If the housing market isn't fixed soon, it's going to drag the rest of the economy down into a hellish bottom that will take years, if not decades, to crawl out of.
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Wednesday, June 01, 2011
Case Shiller Home Price Index Confirms U.S. Housing Market Concern / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Asha_Bangalore
The seasonally adjusted Case-Shiller Home Price Index of 20 metro areas slipped 0.2% in March. This is the ninth consecutive monthly decline after the index posted gains in the second-half of 2009 and first-half of 2010. The temporary gain of the Case-Shiller Home Price Index was largely due to the first-time home buyer program which expired in April 2010.
Wednesday, May 25, 2011
Rebound of New U.S. Home Sales is Impressive, But Level Remains Close to Record Low / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Asha_Bangalore
Sales of new single-family homes rose 7.3% to an annual rate of 323,000 in April after an 8.3% increase in March. The record low sales mark of new single-family homes is 278,000 seen in August 2010 (see Chart 1). Essentially, sales of new homes continue to bounce around the record low reading after seven quarters of economic growth.
Wednesday, May 18, 2011
U.S. Housing Market Starts Continue to Hover Around Cycle Low / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Asha_Bangalore
Housing starts fell 10.6% to an annual rate of 523,000 in April. Construction of single-family homes (-5.1%) and multi-family homes (-24.1%) declined in April. Starts of both total and single-family units (394,000) in April are little different from the cycle low (see Chart 1). Starts of new homes fell in the Northeast (-4.8%) and South (-23%) but advanced in the Midwest (+15.7%) and the West (+3.7%). The large supply of unsold homes and distressed properties continues to hold down construction of new homes.
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Tuesday, May 17, 2011
US and UK Housing Market Outlook / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: John_Hampson
House prices globally tend to follow cycles lasting around 16 years: patterns of 12 years of rises followed by 4 years of declines (at a steeper rate than the rises). With US house prices having peaked in 2006 and UK house prices 2007, cycles suggest a new bull market should now emerge. So do historical measures support this?
Tuesday, May 17, 2011
U.S. Housing Market is Still Sick / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: John_Mauldin
Everyone is curious about the state of housing in the US. My friend Gary Shilling recently did a lengthy issue on housing as it is today. I asked him to give us a shorter version for Outside the Box, and he graciously did. And you want to know what Gary thinks, because he is one of the guys who really got it right early, from subprime to the bubble and the price collapse, and has been right all along. No one is better. This very readable edition is full of charts and fast reasoning.
Friday, May 13, 2011
US Housing Market Final Stage (REO) Foreclosures Target Six Million By 2014 / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Andrew_Butter
A Bank Repossession (REO) is the final stage of the foreclosure process that typically requires three foreclosure notices in USA. The REO is the point at which the bank throws you out on the street; but when the media report “X” many foreclosure filings in a month, that’s a mix of the 1st, 2nd and 3rd (final) stages.
Tuesday, May 10, 2011
U.S. Housing Market and GDP Economic Growth / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Tony_Pallotta
Housing as a percent of GDP peaked in 1980 at 19%. In 2005 as the housing bubble was set to pop it represented 18.5%. Today it stands at 15%, still a large piece of the economy.
The part that is not measured (not sure it can be) is housing's impact on overall economic demand through the wealth affect. If someone is confident in the value of their home for example they are willing to invest in an addition or a remodel for example.
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Wednesday, April 27, 2011
U.S. Housing Market Crisis Crazy Statistics / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Chris_Kitze
End of the American Dream writes: Has the U.S. housing market reached a "bottom" yet? Are home prices going to start recovering? Is the housing crisis going to end at some point? Today there are millions of American families that would like to buy homes but they are not sure what to do. After all, nobody wants to end up like all the suckers that bought at the top of the market and now owe far more on their mortgages then their homes are worth. A lot of people are really afraid to take out home loans right now. So should you buy a home in 2011? That is a very good question.
Tuesday, April 26, 2011
The Inside Out World of U.S. Home Mortgages / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Douglas_French
Nothing perks up the spirits like the coming of spring. Flowers are blooming and the birds are singing. The winter thaw is finally complete for most of the nation. But while yards are starting to bloom, home values are still dormant. The median sales price of a home in the United States has dropped to just over $159,000, the lowest level since 2002.
Tuesday, April 26, 2011
U.S. Home Sales Climb, But Level Remains Close to Record Low Mark / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Asha_Bangalore
Sales of existing single-family homes increased 11.1% to an annual rate of 300,000 units in March after an upwardly revised reading for February (270,000 vs. 250,000 in earlier report). The largest gain in sales of single-family homes was registered in the Northeast (+66.7%) followed by the West (+25.9%) and Midwest (+12.9%) and a virtually unchanged level in the South.
Thursday, April 21, 2011
U.S. Existing Homes Sales Data Continues to Suggest Soft Conditions in Housing Market / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Paul_L_Kasriel
Much like housing starts, existing home sales also posted a small gain in March. But, the bottom line is that housing starts and existing home sales are hovering close to cycle lows and sustained gains to push readings noticeably above cycle lows have not occurred, as yet. New home sales numbers for March will be published on April 25, 2011.
Wednesday, April 20, 2011
U.S. Housing Market Foreclosure Chinese Water Torture / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Douglas_French
The real-estate bust continues at a pace akin to Chinese water torture. Home prices peaked five years ago, but a mountain of foreclosures still looms. RealtyTrac reports that filings rose 7 percent in March from the previous month but are down 35 percent from March of last year, when RealtyTrac recorded the highest number of default filings since the company started in boom-time 2005. Foreclosure filings for the entire first quarter fell to a three-year low.
Wednesday, April 20, 2011
U.S. Housing Market Starts, Small Gain, But is Step in Right Direction / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Asha_Bangalore
Housing starts rose 7.2% to an annual rate of 549,000 in March following an 18.5% drop in the prior month. In the first quarter, total housing starts have risen at an annualized pace of 23.2%. Single-family starts moved up 7.7% to an annual rate of 422,000 in March. However, on a quarterly basis, starts of single-family units have dropped nearly 18%, which indicates that the entire gain in the first quarter came from multi-family starts. These numbers suggest that residential investment expenditure most likely made a small positive contribution to real GDP in the first quarter. The current level of housing starts is still down nearly 77% from the peak reading in January 2006 (1.823 million units).
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Friday, April 08, 2011
Falling U.S. House Prices Could Restrain Economic Recovery / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Money_Morning
David Zeiler writes:
With the latest data pointing to a double-dip in home prices, it has become increasingly clear that the wobbly economic recovery won't be getting any help from the housing sector.
Existing home sales in February sank 9.6% from the previous month, while prices fell 5.2% to a median of $156,000, the lowest since April 2002. Existing homes comprise 90% of the housing market.
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Saturday, April 02, 2011
U.S. Housing Market Will Remain a Government Program / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Neeraj_Chaudhary
Recently, the Obama Administration seemed to flash a rare sign of laissez-faire thinking when it issued a report calling for the "winding down" of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the two taxpayer-guaranteed institutions now responsible for backing at least 90% of the US mortgage market. In its press release, the Administration acknowledged that the private sector should be the "primary source of mortgage credit," and that their goal is to "bring private capital back to the mortgage market."
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Thursday, March 31, 2011
U.S. Housing Market Continues to Bleed / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Mike_Whitney
The collapse in housing prices is gaining pace proving that the Fed's bond purchasing program (QE2) has been an utter failure. While liquidity sloshes around in the equities markets, the distress on Main Street is more excruciating than ever. The release of the Case-Shiller index of property values on Tuesday, confirmed analysts worst fears, that the decline in prices is accelerating on the downside further weakening household balance sheets, wiping out precious home equity, and thrusting working class families back into the red.Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, March 27, 2011
Economic Depression in America: U.S. Housing Markets Double Dip / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Mike_Whitney
The housing market is now in full retreat. This week, the Commerce Department reported that sales of new homes plunged nearly 17 percent in February to a 250,000 annual pace. That's a record low. At the same time, the median price fell 8.9 percent from February of last year. The news comes on the heels of Monday's equally-dismal report that showed existing home sales dropped 9.6 percent in February. These are Depression era stats and builders know it which is why they're unloading homes as cheaply as possible. It's been 5 years since housing prices peaked in July 2006, and the market is still nowhere near the bottom. In fact, the rate of decline is accelerating. This is shaping up to be the worst spring in history.
Friday, March 25, 2011
Housing Market Double Dip and Economic Growth / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Tony_Pallotta
Economic data continues to reinforce the reality that a housing double dip has in fact begun. Were it not for the 2010 tax credits there would likely have just been one dip and we would be further along the process of clearing supply than we are today. Regardless, it is here and the question then becomes what, if any impact will it have on economic growth.
Wednesday, March 23, 2011
U.S. New Home Sales Plunge, Gains From First-Time Home Buyer Program Nearly Erased / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Asha_Bangalore
Sales of new single-family homes fell 16.9% to an annual rate of 250,000 in February, a new historical low for home sales. Sales of new single family homes have plunged 82% since the peak in July 2005 (1.389 million homes, see Chart 1). Sales of new single-family homes declined in all four regions of the nation, with the Northeast recording the largest drop (-57%).
Tuesday, March 22, 2011
Concern Over Falling U.S. Housing Market Existing Home Sales / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Asha_Bangalore
Sales of all existing homes fell 9.6% to an annual rate of 4.88 million units in February, after three consecutive monthly gains, while that of single-family units also declined 9.6% to an annual rate of 4.25 million units. Sales of existing homes declined in all regions of the economy, with the Midwest (-12.2%) recording the largest drop.
Thursday, March 17, 2011
U.S. Housing Starts Plunge in February, Outlook Remains Gloomy / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Asha_Bangalore
Starts of single-family units fell 22.5% in February to annual rate of 479,000, virtually identical to the 477,000 low seen in April 2009. New construction for single-family units fell 11.8% to annual rate of 375,000 in February, which is close to the historical low of 360,000 registered in January 2009. Essentially, construction of new homes has failed to rebound from historical lows despite a recovery that is seven quarters old.
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Monday, March 14, 2011
How Real Estate Came to Own Us / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Douglas_French
Cheap money, buyer tax incentives, lack of new supply, nothing seems to keep home prices elevated. The Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller Home Price Index fell 1 percent in December. Prices fell in every market excepting Washington, DC, where the business of doing the people's business continues to expand seemingly without end.
Thursday, March 10, 2011
U.S. Housing Market Developments Suggest Persistent Unease / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Asha_Bangalore
The Mortgage Bankers Association's Mortgage Purchase Index moved up 12.5% to 194.4 during the week ended March 4. On a monthly basis, the Mortgage Purchase Index has declined 3.3% in February following a nearly 8.0% drop in January. Of late, the link between mortgage applications for purchases of homes and actual sales appears to be weak (see Chart 1). Combined sales of homes rose slightly in January [Sales of existing homes advanced in January (+2.7%), while sales of new homes plunged (-12.6%)].
Wednesday, March 02, 2011
U.S. Housing Market, More Trouble in Squanderville / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Mike_Whitney
Bob, Frank and Freddie all bought identical houses in the same neighborhood in 2004. Each man paid $300,000 for his home.
Bob paid the whole $300,000 in cash. Frank put down 10% (or $30,000) and took out a $270,000 mortgage. Freddie paid $0-down on a 100% mortgage.
Wednesday, March 02, 2011
U.S. Home Improvements Lift Residential Construction Outlays / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Asha_Bangalore
Construction spending fell 0.7% in January after a 1.6% drop in the prior month. During January, the 5.3% jump in residential construction spending was largely due to home improvements (+10.5%, see Chart 7), with new construction of single family-units (+0.9%) posting a small gain and that of multi-family units declining (-2.9%). Non-residential private sector construction spending posted a significant drop (-6.9%).
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Tuesday, March 01, 2011
Pending U.S. Home Sales Index Points to Likely Weakness in Home Sale / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Asha_Bangalore
The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI) of the National Association of Realtors fell 2.8% to 88.9 in January, after 3.2% drop in December. These back-to-back monthly declines bode poorly for sales of existing homes in the near term. The PHSI has a 1-2 month lead on actual sales of existing homes. Sales of existing homes rose 2.7% in January.
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Friday, February 25, 2011
Sales of U.S. New Homes Decline in January to Erase Gains Posted in December / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Asha_Bangalore
Sales of new single-family homes fell 12.6% to an annual rate of 284,000 in January after nearly a 17% jump in December. Effectively, the level of new home sales is back to the November 2010 mark. The record low is 274,000 established in August 2010. Regionally, sales of new homes fell in the South (-12.8%) and West (-36.5%) but advanced in the Northeast (+54.5%) and Midwest (+17.1%).
Wednesday, February 23, 2011
U.S. House Prices Continue to Move Around Cycle Low / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Asha_Bangalore
The seasonally adjusted Case-Shiller Home Price Index fell 2.1% in the fourth quarter following a 3.3% decline in the prior quarter. The level of the index is close to the bottom registered in the first quarter of 2009 (see Chart 1). Price gains from the first-time home buyer program were only a temporary lift.
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Wednesday, February 16, 2011
Geithner's Failed Makeover of the U.S. Housing Finance Market / Politics / US Housing
By: Michael_Pento
To counter the increasing demands that government reduce its micromanagement of the economy, last week the Obama Administration offered a fig leaf in the form of a white paper entitled "Reforming America's Housing Finance Market." In addition to marking the official end of the Bush era "ownership society," where increasing the level of home ownership was a national priority, the document contains a recommended regulatory overhaul of the Federal Housing Authority (FHA) as well as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (together known as Government Sponsored Enterprises "GSE's"), that intends to bring the share of government owned home loans from the current 95% to 40% over the next 5-7 years.
Wednesday, February 16, 2011
Obama Proposes Fannie & Freddie Reforms as U.S. Housing Market Continues to Languish / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Money_Morning
Don Miller writes:
Three years after the housing market collapsed, efforts to clean up the financial mess created by Fannie Mae (OTC: FNMA) and Freddie Mac (OTC: FMCC) - the government agencies that largely inflated the bubble - remain stuck in limbo as Washington policymakers bicker over the details.
Meanwhile, the market continues to suffer through the aftermath.
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Tuesday, February 08, 2011
Commercial Real Estate No Longer the U.S. Economy's Achilles Heel / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Money_Morning
David Zeiler writes:
While many analysts had it pegged as the next big threat to the U.S. economic recovery, the commercial real estate (CRE) market is actually on the mend.
No doubt, fallout from bad loans will continue to pose challenges to banks for the next several years. But on the whole, commercial real estate seems to have finally found a bottom.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, February 06, 2011
U.S. Mortgage Crisis: Where Does The Homeowner Stand? / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Stephen_Merrill
Over the past several years, the real estate industry in the United States has undergone a near collapse. House prices have been reduced so far by 25% nationwide due to the bursting of real estate bubble. The only vibrant part of the real estate market in the present economic recovery is the millions of foreclosed homes being sold to bargain hunters.
Some smaller States, the Dakotas, Nebraska, Alaska, have managed to avoid a big downturn in prices and hope to continue to do so. The big States most affected by the real estate disaster though, California, Michigan, Nevada, Florida, have lost more than one-half on home values in many major cities.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, February 02, 2011
U.S. Housing Bear Market Resumes in 2011 / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Clif_Droke
An oft-repeated maxim is that real estate is one of the best long-term investments. For the better part of the last 60 years or so this certainly held true. In a typical “long wave” or 60-year Kress cycle, real estate benefits almost from the start of the inflationary leg of the long wave and prices tend to increase even after the 60-year cycle of inflation/deflation peaks, and real estate prices can continue to increase in the ensuing dis-inflationary years of the cycle. It’s mainly during the final “hard down” part of the cycle -- which is defined as the final 8-12% of the cycle -- that the real estate market struggles under the weight of deflation.
Friday, January 28, 2011
The Best Time in History to Buy a House / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: DailyWealth
Dr. Steve Sjuggerud writes: Right now, is the best time in history to buy a house in America.
Today, I'll show you why… based on a few cold, hard facts.
Thursday, January 27, 2011
Sales of New U.S. Homes Rebound from Historical Low / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Asha_Bangalore
Sales of new single-family homes increased 17.5% to an annual rate of 329,000 in December after holding steady during November. The magnitude of the jump in sales of new homes is impressive but it is important to note that home sales are recovering from a historically low level. Sales of new single family homes stood at an annual rate of 280,000 in November, which is close to the historical low of 274,000 recorded for August 2010. Putting things in perspective, the peak of new home sales was 1.389 million home and it occurred in July 2005.
Wednesday, January 26, 2011
U.S. Home Prices Remain a Challenge, Near Term Improvement Unlikely / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Asha_Bangalore
The Case-Shiller Home Price Index fell 0.5% in November marking the fifth consecutive monthly price decline following gains in the each of the three months of the second quarter. On a year-over-year basis, the index has declined 1.6% in November after a 0.8% drop in October. Moving back in time, the Case-Shiller Home Price Index posted year-to-year gains in each month during the February-September 2010 period, reflecting the positive influence of the first-time home buyer credit program.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, January 25, 2011
U.S. Housing Market into the 2020's / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Tony_Caldaro
From time to time we have been reviewing the historical housing market index, provided by Case-Shiller, in an attempt to identify historical patterns. Since the historical index is not provided in nominal terms (inflation included), but real terms (inflation excluded), this has been a difficult task. Everything we track, in OEW terms, is quoted in nominal prices. After several attempts over the past few years we feel we have identified enough historical patterns to offer an educated projection for the US housing market going forward. We present the history of US housing prices using a chart courtesy of Steve Barry/Barry Ritholtz. This chart displays the past 120 years of US existing home prices in real terms, with a dashed line forecast by Robert Shiller of Case-Shiller.
Friday, January 21, 2011
Sales of Existing U.S. Homes Soar in December, Partly From Distressed Sales / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Asha_Bangalore
Sales of existing homes rose 12.3% in December to an annual rate of 5.28 million. Purchases of single-family homes increased 11.8% in December to an annual rate of 4.64 million, the highest since August 2007, excluding the hikes recorded when the first-time home buyer program was in place during several months of the 2009-2010 period.
Thursday, January 20, 2011
U.S. Housing Starts Decline in December, But 2010 Closes With a Few Positives / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Asha_Bangalore
Starts of new homes fell 4.3% to an annual rate of 529,000 in December. Although builders broke ground for the construction of new multi-family units (+18%) in December, single-family starts declined 9% to an annual rate of 417,000. The level of housing starts is close to historical lows (see Chart 1) and the January Home Builders Survey (Composite index has held steady for three straight months) suggests that builders are not optimistic about the near term outlook for home building activity.
Wednesday, January 19, 2011
U.S. Home Builders Survey Suggests Stalled Home Construction / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Asha_Bangalore
The survey of The National Association of Home Builders for January indicates stalled home building activity in January (see Chart 1). For three straight months the composite index has held at 16. The index measuring traffic of prospective buyers moved up slightly (12 vs. 11 in January), while the index tracking current sales has held steady for four months at 16.
Friday, January 14, 2011
If Shiller’s Chart Is Right US Housing Market Has 50% to Fall: BubbleOmics Disagrees / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Andrew_Butter
There has been a kind of pause in house price angst in USA over the past year, the “good news” is that “only” one million homes were physically repossessed in 2010 which is about the same as 2009. The bad news is that outside of the temporary respite achieved by “Foreclosure-Gate”, the trend is still up.
Wednesday, January 12, 2011
U.S. Housing Slump Worse than the Great Depression / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Washingtons_Blog
Zillow's reports: The Zillow Home Value Index has now fallen 26% since its peak in June 2006. That’s more than the 25.9% decline in the Depression-era years between 1928 and 1933.
November marked the 53rd consecutive month of home value declines, with the Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI) falling 0.8% from October to November, and falling 5.1% year-over-year.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, January 12, 2011
The Allure of Real Estate / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: MISES
Fred Buzzeo writes: These days everyone is sitting at the edge of their seats waiting for a real-estate recovery. Indeed, during the past ten years, everyone has become a real-estate addict. It is hard for me to walk down the street without someone telling me that the market has "hit bottom" or that the market is on the "rebound."
Wednesday, January 12, 2011
Why Falling U.S. House Prices 2011 Will Not Stall U.S. Economic Recovery / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Money_Morning
Martin Hutchinson writes:
U.S. housing prices still have further to fall -perhaps a lot further.
In fact, depending upon the circumstances, the additional price declines could be quite steep.
But here's the shocker: That decline won't necessarily cause a "double-dip" recession.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, January 05, 2011
Critical Mass in U.S. Real Estate Market: Comments From Steve Moyer / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: JD_Rosendahl
I love getting emails from those who read my blogs because I keep getting well thought out comments and/or questions from readers. Yesterday was a particular treat for me, as my good friend and fellow blogger (Steve Moyer) at SafeHaven and The Market Oracle sent in some comments regarding my pet topic (Critical Mass).
Thursday, December 30, 2010
‘Unexpected’ U.S. Home Price Decline is a Serious Reason to Worry About Economy / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Mac_Slavo
The Standard & Poors/Case-Shiller index’s most recent report shows that home prices across the country are sliding. For economists, this is yet another unexpected decline. For readers of non-mainstream news, analysis and opinion, this was to be expected.
Monday, December 27, 2010
U.S. Housing Market Foreclosure Gate Distraction / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Mike_Stathis
Over the past few months we have heard about a variety of questionable practices from banks looking to seize the homes due to chronic mortgage delinquencies. Each day more drama is added to the picture. It has become the center of focus for many media hacks who want to exploit the frustration and anger they have with Wall Street and Washington.
Friday, December 10, 2010
U.S. House Prices Continue to Fall, Down Over 80% in Gold and Silver / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Mark_B_Rasmussen
Median prices declined 3% from 11/09.
The peak was 63 - 64 months ago. The historical peak to trough real estate prices is 46+ months. 01/10 was the low for the 4.5 yr. decline that began in the summer of 2005. It really is “different this time”.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, December 09, 2010
U.S. Mortgage Rates Rise toward 5 per cent / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: LiveCharts
National average mortgage rates are on the rise in the United States as jobless claims are improving and the economy appears to be improving.
The national average 30-year fixed rate Thursday (December 9) morning is 4.91 per cent according to Bankrate.com, compared with an average mortgage rate of 4.66 per cent on Thursday last week.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, December 07, 2010
U.S. Housing Market Lags Economic Recovery, Robust Growth in Hiring Key to Revival / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Asha_Bangalore
The current recession/recovery phase has many records for history books. Here is another one. In the post-war period, the housing market nearly always led the economic recovery. Housing market troughs, as measured by the trough of real residential investment expenditures, occurred prior to the onset of the overall economic recovery. Chart 1 plots real private residential investment expenditures and the shaded regions denote recessions as identified by the National Bureau of Economic Research.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, December 03, 2010
U.S. Housing Market Update, Affordability Index, Pending Home Sales Index / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Asha_Bangalore
Home prices and mortgage rates are at historical lows, which makes homes most affordable. In fact, the Housing Affordability Index of the National Association of Realtors scaled a record high mark in October - 184.2 (see Chart 1). Historically, readings above 120 have been viewed as a seller's market. The chain of economic events of the past three years has modified this perception and the housing market is currently a buyer's market. However, buyers do not have the wherewithal to take advantage of the sweet spot in the housing market with affordable homes and low mortgage rates.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, December 02, 2010
Strength in Residential Construction Spending is Entirely from Improvements / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Asha_Bangalore
Residential construction outlays increased 2.5% in October after a 0.6% gain in September. The headline number is impressive and the increase in residential construction outlays should add to GDP growth in the fourth quarter. However, it should be noted that the entire gain of these outlays in October was from home improvements and not from new residential construction (see Chart 3).
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, December 01, 2010
The Rise and Fall of the U.S. Home Ownership Myth / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Douglas_French
The idea that "a man's house is his castle" is attributed to American Revolutionary James Otis from 1761, and his idea was that government should never be permitted to breach its walls. It is a good thought, in context, one that sums up a dogged attachment to the right of private property.
Wednesday, December 01, 2010
U.S. House Prices, Tip of Iceberg of Housing Market Woes / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Asha_Bangalore
The seasonally adjusted Case-Shiller Price Index fell 0.8% in September after a 0.5% drop in August. In the third quarter, house prices, as measured by the Case-Shiller Price Index have dropped 3.4% after a 2.6% gain in the prior quarter. From a year ago, this price index declined 1.5%. The house price picture is disappointing and worrisome. The brief gain in house prices in the second quarter reflects the impact of the first-time home buyer program much like the situation in 2009 when the program was put in place (see Chart 1).
Thursday, November 25, 2010
U.S. New Home Sales Continue to Linger Around Historical Low / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Asha_Bangalore
Sales of new single-family homes fell 8.1% to an annual rate of 283,000 in October after an upwardly revised gain of 12.0% in September (previously estimated as a 6.6% increase). Sales of new single-family homes have hovered around the historical low of 275,000, recorded in August, for the last six months.
Wednesday, November 24, 2010
U.S. Sales of Existing Homes Fell in October, Inventories Remain a Challenge / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Asha_Bangalore
Sales of all existing homes fell 2.2% in October, after posting gains in August and September, to an annual rate of 4.43 million. Purchases of existing single-family homes dropped 2.0% to annual rate of 3.89 million in October, putting the year-to-year decline at 28%, the largest drop for the current downturn. On a regional basis, sales of existing homes fell in all regions of the nation in October.
Thursday, November 18, 2010
U.S. Housing Market Continues to Rot, No Rebound in 2011 / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Money_Morning
Larry D. Spears writes:
The year of 2010 saw very little improvement in the housing sector, and that's not likely to change in 2011.
The industry's weaknesses - high unemployment, tight credit, ineffectual government programs, soaring inventories, plunging prices, and so on - are simply too gaping to be resolved by next year.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, November 18, 2010
U.S. Housing Market Starts Were Unimpressive in October / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Asha_Bangalore
Housing starts fell 11.7% to an annual rate of 519,000, reflecting a 43.5% drop in starts of multi-family units and a 1.1% drop in single-family units to an annual rate of 431,000. Single-family starts have essentially held nearly steady for four straight months (see chart 3). The decline in multi-family starts was the culprit behind the weak headline reading. Multi-family starts are highly volatile and do not speak for the underlying trend of homebuilding activity.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, November 06, 2010
ForeClosureGate and The Economic Crisis, Spiralling Gold and Silver Prices / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Bob_Chapman
Foreclosuregate will soon again dominate the financial news along with the three class action lawsuits – one is a RICO suit, entered against JPMorgan Chase and HSBC for rigging the silver markets.
Friday, October 29, 2010
U.S. Mortgagegate Scandal Puts Taxpayers into the Title-Insurance Business / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Money_Morning
Shah Gilani writes:
U.S. taxpayers already own pieces of such problem-plagued companies as General Motors Corp., Chrysler LLC, American International Group Inc. (NYSE: AIG), Fannie Mae (OTC: FNMA) and Freddie Mac (OTC: FMCC). Now the increasingly problematic "Mortgagegate" saga could land American taxpayers in the trouble-ridden title-insurance business.
Wednesday, October 27, 2010
Case-Shiller U.S. Home Price Index Dips in August as Jobs Outlook Remains Poor / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Asha_Bangalore
The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index increased to 50.2 in October from 48.6 in the prior month. The Present Situation Index rose to 23.9 from 23.3 in September and Expectations Index moved up to 67.8 from 65.5 in September.
Tuesday, October 26, 2010
Existing U.S. Homes Sales Advance, But Inventories Remain Problematic / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Asha_Bangalore
Sales of all existing homes rose 10% in September to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.53 million units following a 7.3% increase in the prior month. Sales of existing single-family homes increased 10.0% to an annual rate of 3.97 million units during September vs. a 7.1% gain in August. On a regional basis, sales of all existing homes rose in all four regions of the nation, with the gains in the Midwest leading the group.
Saturday, October 23, 2010
The Mortgage Securitization Scam / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Bob_Chapman
The foreclosure crisis has set its sights on MERS, the Mortgage Electronic Registration Systems, which files almost all of the foreclosure actions in behalf of lenders. The problem never anticipated by lenders is that the company has no legal standing to do such things. In addition they broke the law by not requiring a notarized document of transfer of title signed by the seller and buyer. That is because they did not own the loans.
Friday, October 22, 2010
Mortgage Mess Comes Back to Haunt Bankers … Again / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Mike_Larson
Halloween is right around the corner. So it’s only appropriate that — just like some bad horror movie character — the mortgage monster keeps coming back to haunt bankers. Indeed, major financial institutions like Bank of America got pummeled this week amid fear of even MORE losses tied to the mortgage debacle.
What’s at stake? How will this impact the markets? Why do these home loan zombies refuse to die?
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, October 21, 2010
Getting Real About U.S. Real Estate, Mortgage-backed Securities and Foreclosures / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: David_Galland
David Galland interviews real estate professional Andy Miller, Miller Frishman Group
In 1990, following the real estate debacle of the 1980s, Andy Miller co-founded SevoMiller, Inc. The company provided workout services for major financial institutions throughout the country and also began buying and developing apartments, retail and office properties. From its founding to the present, the company's acquisitions totaled over 30,000 apartment units, several million square feet of retail space, and numerous office projects throughout the country, including the states of Colorado, Arizona, California, Nevada, Illinois, Texas, Louisiana, Indiana, Oklahoma, Georgia, and Florida.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, October 20, 2010
Is ForeclosureGate Sloppy Paperwork or Push Button Financial Fraud? / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Washingtons_Blog
Foreclosure Expert Confirms Mortgages Pledged Multiple Times, Not Actually Securitized, Document Problem Is Really a System of "Push Button Fraud"
Yesterday, I showed that mortgages were fraudulently pledged to multiple buyers at the same time.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, October 20, 2010
Foreclosure Mortgage Mess, The Second Leg Down in America’s Death Spiral / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Gonzalo_Lira
Last Friday, Bank of America announced that it was suspending all foreclosure proceedings, presumably until further notice. Other banks have already suspended foreclosures in a whole truckload of states. A nationwide moratorium on foreclosures might soon happen—which would be a big deal: Global Financial Crisis, Part II—Longer, Wider and Uncut.
Wednesday, October 20, 2010
U.S. Housing Market Foreclosure-gate Doomsday Revolution Erupts / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Chris_Kitze
Foreclosure-gate is heating up and the mad scramble for what's left of $45 trillion in real estate is guaranteed to leave homeowners homeless, pension funds unable to pay their pensions and even some of the biggest banks insolvent. A great housing goat rodeo was created when some of the 65 million mortgages on U.S. homes didn't follow proper legal procedures;
Wednesday, October 20, 2010
U.S. Housing Market Starts Small Increase Inadequate to Make a Positive Contribution to Q3 Real GDP / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Asha_Bangalore
Housing starts rose 0.3% to an annual rate of 610,000 in September. In the third quarter, housing starts declined at an annual rate of 8.2% after a 9.4% drop in the second quarter. Starts of single-family units moved up 4.4% in September, but the third quarter average fell 36.9% vs. a 23.3% drop in the second quarter. Permit extensions for single-family units rose a paltry 0.5% to an annual rate of 405,000 in September, implying a possible decline in construction of new homes in October.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, October 19, 2010
U.S. Mortgage Crisis Act II, Securitization Meets Loan Notes / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Mark_B_Rasmussen
This is an $11 Trillion market. Apx. 42 million mortgages were created from 2003 – 2009. Was Sub-Prime a light shower?
Inquiring minds want to know.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, October 19, 2010
When Will the U.S. Housing Market Bust End? / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: DailyWealth
Ten thousand a month... That's how many foreclosures Palm Beach, Florida-based GMAC-employee Jeremy Stephan was required to sign off on. His signature confirmed the paperwork was all in order, kicking off the foreclosure process.
Think about that... That's 2,500 foreclosures a week... 500 a day...
Sunday, October 17, 2010
Wall Street and White House Blame Homeowners For Foreclosure Crisis / Politics / US Housing
By: Global_Research
Tom Eley writes: Wall Street has raised its voice against any government moratorium on foreclosures, even as evidence mounts that banks systematically and illegally falsified documents in order to expedite hundreds of thousands, or even millions, of foreclosures.
Documented examples of abuse include banks hiring contractors and what one Goldman Sachs executive referred to as “Burger King kids” to process thousands of foreclosure documents per week, all the while declaring to courts they were familiar with the cases. Lenders also falsified signatures, notary stamps, and tossed legal documents into the garbage. Every major bank is implicated in the widening scandal.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, October 17, 2010
Report from the Epicentre of Foreclosures Fraud / Politics / US Housing
By: Danny_Schechter
WEST PALM BEACH, FLORIDA: In all of the economic issues we are dealing with, there is always a “back story, a deeper context” that is usually missing, “disappeared” like those Allende supporters in Chile in the l970’s who wanted to empower workers, not just rescue them when they get buried in a deep hole.
Sunday, October 17, 2010
Are ALL Mortgage Backed Securities a Scam? / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Washingtons_Blog
Pensions and other large investors may sue the banks which sold them mortgage backed securities (mbs) based upon fraudulent misrepresentation.
Sunday, October 17, 2010
Foreclosure Mess, Subprime Debacle Act2, Where is the U.S. Housing Market Recovery? / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: John_Mauldin
There's trouble, my friends, and it is does indeed involve pool(s), but not in the pool hall. The real monster is hidden in those pools of subprime debt that have not gone away. When I first began writing and speaking about the coming subprime disaster, it was in late 2007 and early 2008. The subject was being dismissed in most polite circles. "The subprime problem," testified Ben Bernanke, "will be contained."
Saturday, October 16, 2010
Foreclosuregate: Time to Break Up the Too-Big-to-Fail Banks? / Politics / US Housing
By: Ellen_Brown
Looming losses from the mortgage scandal dubbed “foreclosuregate” may qualify as the sort of systemic risk that, under the new financial reform bill, warrants the breakup of the too-big-to-fail banks. The Kanjorski amendment allows federal regulators to pre-emptively break up large financial institutions that—for any reason—pose a threat to U.S. financial or economic stability.
Friday, October 15, 2010
BubbleOmics: U.S. Office Price Index Forecast to 2013 / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Andrew_Butter
My view is that the office market in USA has bottomed.
No particular reason, just I’ve been tracking office prices for twenty years and that’s what I think. Although you could argue that since I haven’t visited USA for three years and that was only for a week (during which time, interestingly I got a guided Sunday tour of Fannie or Freddy’s head office (can’t remember which), by the architect who designed it, and who was trying to impress me (he did, and he got the job, and then he screwed me (but that’s another story)).
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, October 15, 2010
U.S. Banks Mortgage Fraud, Take Action- Demand To see Your Mortgage Note / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Submissions
CBS News' Rebecca Jarvis discusses the brewing mortgage fraud scandal and how important it is for homeowners to demand to see their original mortgage note.
Friday, October 15, 2010
Mortgagegate Could Crush the U.S. Banking System / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Money_Morning
Shah Gilani writes:
What most Americans don't know about " Mortgagegate" is that "robo-signing" of foreclosure documents is the tip of the iceberg.
The breadth and depth of this newest mortgage crisis is so dangerous that the U.S. Federal Reserve last month pre-announced another potential round of quantitative easing (pundits are calling it "QE2") to address "potential negative shocks."
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, October 15, 2010
U.S. Mortgage Fraud, Greenspan Was Right, So Was Jesus / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Andrew_Butter
In his “book” The Age of Turbulence which was written before the full horror of the financial catastrophe was even imagined, Alan Greenspan devoted just four pages to the subject of financial regulation.
His big point was that many regulations, often hastily conceived, need to be trimmed back and simplified over time. And that complexity in regulation that grows out of multiple agencies, and multiple initiatives is not a good idea.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, October 14, 2010
Getting Real about U.S. Real Estate / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: David_Galland
David Galland, Managing Director, Casey Research writes: In 1990, following the real estate debacle of the 1980s, Andy Miller co-founded SevoMiller, Inc. The company provided workout services for major financial institutions throughout the country and also began buying and developing apartments, retail and office properties. From its founding to the present, the company’s acquisitions totaled over 30,000 apartment units, several million square feet of retail space, and numerous office projects throughout the country, including the states of Colorado, Arizona, California, Nevada, Illinois, Texas, Louisiana, Indiana, Oklahoma, Georgia, and Florida.
Wednesday, October 13, 2010
Banks Laundering Counterfeit Mortgages, The Largest Financial Fraud in World History! / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Washingtons_Blog
A "false front" building from the Old West. Towns built false fronts to make the town look more substantial and prosperous than it really was.
The tidal wave of evidence showing that the giant banks have engaged in fraudulent foreclosure practices is so large that the attorneys general of up to 40 states are launching investigations.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, October 11, 2010
Bank Shot, Nobody Can Buy or Sell Property / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Submissions
James Howard Kunstler writes: The banking authorities were shocked - shocked - to discover last week that an awful lot of mortgage paper in this country is not quite in order... appears to contain, er, irregularities... seems less than kosher... frankly, exudes an odor like unto dead carp or, shall we say, a heap of dead carp the size of the building at 3900 Wisconsin Avenue, N.W., Washington, D.C. Any day now we will hear that... mistakes... were... made.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, October 11, 2010
U.S. Housing Market Buyers Sideline Foreclosed Properties Due to Unclear Titles / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Mike_Shedlock
Would you buy a foreclosed home now, knowing full well the title may be clouded by mortgage fraud? I wouldn't. Anyone who would without title insurance is asking for a huge legal mess.
Moreover, because of fraudulent procedures, bank of America and other companies have halted all foreclosures. See 40 State Attorneys General to Investigate Mortgage Fraud; Bank of America Halts Evictions Nationwide; Senator Reid Calls for More Suspensions, A nationwide halt in foreclosures for details.
Monday, October 11, 2010
Foreclose This: There’s More Than Robo Signatures To Blame For The Ongoing Foreclosure Scandal / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Danny_Schechter
The other day, during an interview on Al Jazeera, I was asked if I was frustrated because my warnings and worries about the financial meltdown and foreclosure crisis, first aired in 2006, have been ignored so long.
Duh!
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, October 09, 2010
U.S. Banks Fake Documents to Rush Home Foreclosures / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Global_Research
Tom Eley writes: Major US banks systematically faked documents in order to speed up foreclosures for hundreds of thousands of homeowners, a mounting body of evidence shows. It appears likely that federal and state laws were broken in the process.
Friday, October 08, 2010
Fraud in U.S. Home Mortgages: "ForeclosureGate" and Obama’s “Pocket Veto” / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Ellen_Brown
Amid a snowballing foreclosure fraud crisis, President Obama today blocked legislation that critics say could have made it more difficult for homeowners to challenge foreclosure proceedings against them.
The bill, titled The Interstate Recognition of Notarizations Act of 2009, passed the Senate with unanimous consent and with no scrutiny by the DC media. In a maneuver known as a "pocket veto," President Obama indirectly vetoed the legislation by declining to sign the bill passed by Congress while legislators are on recess.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, October 07, 2010
U.S. Consumer Debt Deleveraging Equals Commercial Real Estate Market Collapse / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: James_Quinn
There is a Part 2 to the story of Consumer Deleveraging that will play out over the next decade. Consumers will deleverage because they must. They have no choice. Boomers have come to the shocking realization that you can't get wealthy or retire by borrowing and spending. As consumers buy $500 billion less stuff per year, retailers across the land will suffer. To give some perspective on our consumer society, here are a few facts:
Tuesday, October 05, 2010
Foreclosures Continue to Hit U.S. Housing Recovery / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Money_Morning
Don Miller writes: Banks seized more homes in August than in any month since the housing bubble burst in 2007, even as the number of homes entering the foreclosure process dropped for the seventh month in a row, according to data compiled by RealtyTrac Inc.
In all, banks repossessed 95,364 properties last month, up 3% from July and an increase of 25% from August 2009, RealtyTrac said. August was the ninth month in a row that the rate of homes seized by banks increased on an annual basis. The previous high was in May.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, September 28, 2010
Wealthy Chinese Are Desperate to Buy Your Vacation Home / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: DailyWealth
Tom Dyson writes: My friend is visiting from Shanghai. Last night, he told us some incredible stories about the crazy rise in real estate prices in China...
Take his parents, for example. They live in Qingdao, a fast-growing city on the east coast between Shanghai and Beijing. His parents bought a house on the beach seven years ago. It's gone up six times in value since they bought it and is now worth over $1 million.
Friday, September 24, 2010
U.S. Housing Market BIG Picture, Shiller's Forecasts and Media Propaganda / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Mike_Stathis
Each month, the media lines up to read the results of the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices. It’s published the last Tuesday of the month and reports on data 60 days in arrears. This group of indices is generated and published by Standard & Poor's and Fiserv Inc. Keep in mind that these indices are maintained by the Index Committee members drawn from Standard & Poor's, Fiserv CSW, and so-called “leading industry experts.”
Thursday, September 23, 2010
U.S. August Home Sales Were Actually Terrible! / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Sy_Harding
Sometimes I long for the days when newspapers and magazines were the main sources of economic information for investors. They took the time to analyze data before their headlines and reports influenced investor thinking.
With television and the Internet, the goal is not accuracy but speed.
Thursday, September 23, 2010
The ‘Catastrophic Change’ in the U.S. Real Estate Market / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Barry_M_Ferguson
We learned today (9/22/10) from our illustrious US government that new housing starts jumped 10.5% in August. Don’t get exited. Almost all of the gain was from apartment construction. This month-over-month burst in activity is still 9% below last year’s level. Nevertheless, the recession has been declared dead, the stock market has appreciated every day since the conclusion of Bernanke’s August Jackson Hole, Wyoming meeting, and the government needs affirmation of both events. But like most people with a functioning brain cell, I have eyes and ears. Here are my observations on real estate from my little vantage point.
Sunday, September 19, 2010
U.S. Housing Market and its Future / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: David_Urban
So much has been written about the housing market and its overall effects on the economy so I will not spend much time here.
Without dating myself the S&L crisis was partially solved through the removal of bad loans from the balance sheet of banks, the repackaging of said bad loans, and selling them off in tranches to investors.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, September 16, 2010
Surge in Housing Supply Will Drive Down U.S. House Prices / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Mike_Whitney
Home ownership has become an albatross. Prices are falling, demand is weak, foreclosures have skyrocketed, and inventory is backed up to the moon. If there's an upside, it's hard to see.
Everyone who bought a house in the last 6 or 7 years knows that he was fleeced by bankers who were pushing "fishwrap" mortgage paper to line their own pockets. Prices did not reflect the underlying supply/demand fundamentals as much as they exposed the massive mortgage laundering operation that was taking place in the shadow banking system. Hedge fund sharpies and other speculators walked away with billions while credulous homeowners were lashed to an anvil and tossed in the East River.
Wednesday, September 15, 2010
U.S. House Prices Drop in 36 States, Market to Stagnate for a Decade / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Mike_Shedlock
The small upward correction in home prices from multiple tax credit offerings died in July. Worse yet, inventory of homes for sale as well as shadow inventory both soared. 8 million foreclosure-bound homes have yet to hit the market according to Morgan Stanley.
Sunday, September 12, 2010
Zero Down Mortgages Restarted by the Biggest Subprime Lender in Town - Fannie / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Trader_Mark
Good news folks... the "no skin in the game" mortgage is back. You know the game right? It's a one sided bet where the buyer can only win. If the house goes up, you pocket that and hopefully get that granite countertop you so deserve with the home equity. If it doesn't go up.... you walk - but only after living in the home rent free for at least 18-22 months as you strategically default your way to a mountain of savings while waiting for the sheriff to show up. If you are smart you can save at least $30K during this time. There are no losers here (except the U.S. taxpayer). [Jan 5, 2010: WSJ - The Treasury Department's Christmas Eve Masscare of the US Taxpayer] [Feb 1, 2010: 2 Graphs Showing Part of the Reason for the Christmas Eve Taxpayer Massacre] [May 12, 2010: [Video] Are Losses at Fannie and Freddie Now "National Policy"?]
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, September 09, 2010
Should You Buy a House Now? / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: David_Galland
David Galland, Managing Editor, The Casey Report writes: Recently, we have had a number of queries about real estate. And no wonder. For starters, real estate prices have come down. Plus, in an environment with next to zero interest rates, the idea of possibly picking up some income-producing property on the cheap holds a certain appeal to some. Then there’s the fact that real estate is very much a “tangible” – and so should hold up reasonably well, should the fiat currency system come undone, as we expect it will before this crisis is over.
Monday, September 06, 2010
The U.S. Unreal Real Estate Market / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Mark_B_Rasmussen
The peak was 60 - 61 months ago. The historical peak to trough real estate prices is 46+ months. 01/10 was the low for the 4.5 yr. decline that began in the summer of 2005.
Friday, September 03, 2010
Double-Dip Recession Deepens as U.S. Housing Market Collapses / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Mike_Larson
The Double-Dip recession I’ve been predicting for some time is deepening. And nowhere is the emergence of this powerful economic force more clear than in the housing market.
All the fresh economic data confirms that home sales are weakening … home inventories are rising … and home price pressure is building.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, September 01, 2010
U.S. Housing Sales Slump Whilst China's Boom / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Tony_Sagami
I’m back in Montana for a short visit and I am really enjoying my time here.
I’ve hiked around two of my very favorite spots in the world, Jewell Basin area of the Flathead National Forest and Glacier National Park, and even picked a couple buckets of wild huckleberries. Fortunately, I did not run into any grizzly bears, but I didn’t see Huckleberry Hound either.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, August 31, 2010
Little Hope for the U.S. Housing Market / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Money_Morning
Jon D. Markman writes: Just when you thought the housing market couldn't get worse, it did.
New single-family home sales slumped 12.4% in July to a record-low annual rate of 276,000 units, as homebuyers shunned their realtors in the absence of government support. The consensus expectation was for a slight up-tick to a 333,000 unit annual rate, so I suppose it's time to throw out the models. Sales over the prior three months were also revised lower by 9,000 units.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, August 29, 2010
U.S. Home Sales Drop 27% In July And Things Are Only Going To Get Worse / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Pravda
On Tuesday the National Association of Realtors announced that existing home sales in the United States dropped a whopping 27.2% in the month of July. The consensus among analysts was that we would see a drop of around 13 percent, so when the 27 percent figure was announced it sent a shock through world financial markets.
Friday, August 27, 2010
Why Are U.S. Home Sales Plummeting? Huge Waves of Foreclosures Coming down the Pike / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Washingtons_Blog
The government opted to try to prop up prices. Indeed, as I have repeatedly pointed out, the government's entire strategy has been to try to artificially prop up the prices of all types of assets.
Friday, August 27, 2010
U.S. New Home Sales Housing Market Forecast 2010 to 2020 / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Andrew_Butter
A bubble is like if you have a flat pond, and you throw a pebble in.
First there is an “up” wave; that you can ride (if you are smart or lucky); then there is a “down” wave, and the size and the shape of the down that follows the up is predicated by the size and the shape of the preceding up.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, August 27, 2010
Record Drop in U.S. Home Sales / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Barry_Grey
Sales of existing US homes in July plunged by a record 27.2 percent from the previous month, according to a report released Tuesday by the National Association of Realtors.
The virtual collapse in home sales affected every region of the country and was more than twice as bad as anticipated by economic analysts, who had forecast a drop of 12.1 percent. Sales fell to 3.83 million units, compared to June’s downwardly revised figure of 5.26 million.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, August 26, 2010
Moribund U.S. Housing Market Threatens to Kill Economic Recovery / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Money_Morning
Don Miller writes:
The weak housing market, which has traditionally led the U.S. economy out of recent recessions, this time may put an end to the economic recovery.
Existing home sales plummeted by a record 27% to their lowest level in 15 years in July and inventories soared, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported yesterday (Tuesday). Home re-sales, which account for 90% of the total market, dropped to an annual rate of 3.83 million in July. And inventories rose to 12.5 months from 8.9 months in June, putting them at their highest level in more than a decade.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, August 25, 2010
U.S. Housing Market Holocaust, Existing Home Sales Crash / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Mike_Whitney
Don't look now, but someone just pushed the housing market off a cliff. The National Association of Realtors announced on Tuesday that the sales of existing homes fell a staggering 27.2 percent to a seasonably adjusted rate of 3.83 million units. This is the lowest number of sales since 1995. The reaction on Wall Street has been swift, shares plunged in a wild sell-off that pushed stocks down more than 100 points in a matter of minutes. US Treasuries rallied on the news sending bond yields lower as jittery investors sought safety from the ongoing avalanche of dismal economic data. The 10-year slid to 2.49% while the 2 year note dipped to 0.46%. Bond yields are a gauge of investor pessimism. At present, confidence in the management of the economy is at its nadir.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, August 24, 2010
U.S. Existing Home Sales Crash 27%, Treasury Bond Yields Hit New Lows / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Mike_Shedlock
In yet another clean sweep, the third in a week or so, sales of existing homes dropped twice as much as expected, worse than every economist forecast, to a 15 year low. Inventory soared to 12.5 month, the highest since 1999. Treasury yields plunged with yield on the 10-year note falling as low as 2.50 and the 2-year note hitting a new all-time low at .47%.
Monday, August 23, 2010
Let the U.S. Housing Market Normalize! / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Dr_Ron_Paul
Recently there have been some encouraging signs that Congress is finally willing to admit what should have been evident two years ago. Even after a $150 billion bailout, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are still bankrupt and should be abolished. Indeed Rep. Barney Frank, a longtime champion of Fannie and Freddie has made a few statements alluding to this and I have signed on to a letter asking him to clarify his remarks and hold hearings on this topic. There seems to be a growing consensus in favor of abolishing Fannie and Freddie. This is the good news.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, August 17, 2010
A Permanent U.S. Housing Market Collapse? / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Shamus_Cooke
The recent chaos that erupted when 30,000 people waited hours in the Atlanta, Georgia heat to receive applications for subsidized housing is a mere symptom of a worsening national problem.
The housing market appears to be on a never-ending downward spiral, with the much-discussed "recovery" always around the next corner.
Sunday, August 15, 2010
U.S. Housing 10% Below Fundamentals, BubbleOmics Says Must Drop 15% More / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Andrew_Butter
From Felix Salmon today: The government does need to get the housing market going, because the alternative is unthinkable: if the government just kicked away the housing market’s multi-trillion-dollar scaffolding overnight, as Santelli suggests it should, then the entire banking system would become insolvent, and we’d soon be reminiscing wistfully about how painless and shallow the 2008 financial crisis was, compared to the one of 2011. http://seekingalpha.com/..
Tuesday, August 10, 2010
The Forgotten U.S. Housing Market Foreclosure Crisis / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Submissions
Faiz Shakir writes: The economic meltdown of 2008 grew out of a foreclosure crisis, as Wall Street banks drove lenders to make loans that were then securitized and sold around the world, in an unregulated slew of credit products. This inflated a housing bubble that, when it burst, severely damaged an already weak economy, sent millions of homeowners into foreclosure, and put millions more out of work, leading to even more foreclosures as unemployed workers began to miss mortgage payments.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, August 05, 2010
IMF Warns U.S. Real Estate Sectors Could Bring Banking Crisis 2.0 / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Dian_L_Chu
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) stress tested 53 large banking holding companies and published its findings last month. The report concluded that despite restoration of some stability, there remain certain important risks to the U.S. financial system and economy mainly coming from the real estate sectors:
Tuesday, August 03, 2010
Florida's Panhandle: Supreme Real Estate Buying Opportunity / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: DailyWealth
Dr. Steve Sjuggerud writes: Greetings from Destin, Florida... Ground Zero for the Double Whammy.
I'm talking about the one-two punch of:
- The bust in Florida coastal real estate prices...
- AND the bust in tourism from the BP oil disaster in the Gulf.
Monday, August 02, 2010
Self Sustaining U.S. Housing Market Recovery? / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: James_Quinn
John Paulson Will Be Wrong This Time - We have arrived at critical juncture in the ongoing financial crisis. Have the government actions of the last year successfully spurred the animal spirits of Americans, resulting in a self-sustaining recovery? The Obama administration and most of the mainstream media would answer yes. GDP has been positive for the last four quarters. Consumer spending has increased in five consecutive months. Corporate profits have been relatively strong. The country has stopped losing jobs. The missing piece has been a housing recovery.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, July 27, 2010
A Decade of Falling House Prices / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Mike_Whitney
The housing depression will last for a decade or more. This is by design. The Fed has been working with the banks to withhold inventory so prices do not fall too fast or too far. That way the banks can manage their write-downs without slipping into insolvency. But what's good for the banks is bad for the country. Capital impairment at the banks, means no credit expansion in the near-term. It means the economy will continue to contract, unemployment will remain high, and deflation will push down wages and prices. Everyone will pay for the mortgage-backed securities scam that was engineered by the banks.
Monday, July 26, 2010
U.S. Housing Market is Stalling, REITs Are Dangerous Investments Right Now / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: DailyWealth
Tom Dyson writes: "The housing market... is stalling again," says the Wall Street Journal this week.
On one hand, demand has evaporated. The government was giving out $8,000 tax credits for buying a new house. On April 30, the program ended. Naturally, anyone who wanted a house bought one before April 30. Now, there aren't any buyers.
Friday, July 23, 2010
U.S. House Price Forecast 2010 to 2015 / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Andrew_Butter
This is the first model I ever did for a bubble popping:
Thursday, July 22, 2010
U.S. Taxpayers $3.7 Trillion Bailout Fails to Save Housing Market / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Money_Morning
Kerri Shannon writes: The amount of taxpayer dollars directed at the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) continues to grow but with little economic progress being made, particularly in the housing market.
Total taxpayer support for the mortgage market rose by $700 billion in the past year to $3.7 trillion, Neil Barofsky, the Special Inspector General for TARP, said his quarterly report to Congress.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, July 21, 2010
Obama’s Mortgage Assistance Plan Complete failure: More Foreclosures, Real Estate Set to Decline / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: JD_Rosendahl
WASHINGTON — More than 40 percent of homeowners seeking help from the Obama administration's flagship effort to rescue those at risk of foreclosure have dropped out of the program.
The latest report on the program suggests foreclosures could rise in the second half of the year and weaken an ailing housing market.
Wednesday, July 21, 2010
Ponzi Shark Loans Fuel China's Housing Market Bubble That's Going Bust / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Mike_Shedlock
China's property bubble is now on the verge of collapse. Transaction volumes are significantly down and declining volume is how property bubbles always burst. In simple terms, the pool of greater fools eventually runs out.
In China's case, the pool of fools is heavily involved in "loan shark" schemes where speculators hope property values rise fast enough to cover the interest.
Tuesday, July 20, 2010
How to Get a 20% Discount on a Florida Mansion / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: DailyWealth
Steve Sjuggerud writes: For the last two months, a man has stood on the corner of the busiest intersection in the Florida beach town where I live, holding up a five-foot high placard and waving to passing motorists. He's advertising a beachfront mansion with nine bedrooms and nine bathrooms for sale at $2.2 million.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, July 01, 2010
Hooray for Falling U.S. Real Estate Prices / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: LewRockwell
Jeffrey A. Tucker writes: Pittsburgh is a town that makes me want to rhapsodize like a Randian. Its skyline, the materials and shapes that make up the structure of the city, celebrate man's creative genius in every way. It is more beautiful than the most cultivated garden because it is a picture of order out of chaos and all directed toward the betterment of society.
Thursday, July 01, 2010
U.S. Housing Market Wobbling without Tax Credit Crutch / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Money_Morning
Don Miller writes: The housing market has struggled to rebuild since its 2007 collapse, and its recovery is on even shakier ground now that a tax credit for first-time homebuyers has expired.
Tuesday, June 29, 2010
U.S. Housing Bear Market Second Down Leg Closer Look / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: John_Mauldin
Quickly, I will be on Larry Kudlow's show tonight (Tuesday, June 28), which is at 7 pm Eastern. Larry has promised that we will spend some quality time on some of the current issues facing us. See you there! And now, let's jump in to this week's Outside the Box.
Last January 2009, the Outside the Box featured FusionIQ's quant models that blend both fundamental and technical metrics to determine the strength of 8,000 equities as well as the overall markets ( Trading With the Big Boys).
Monday, June 28, 2010
We're Nowhere Near the End of the Real Estate Houisng Bear Market / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: DailyWealth
"Can I see a list of foreclosures, please?"
I was talking to a friend with close contacts in the real estate industry. He said right now, people walk into real estate agencies with only one thing on their minds: buying foreclosures.
Friday, June 25, 2010
U.S. Housing Market Shortage Coming, Now in the Best to to Buy, Inane Thoughts? / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Mike_Shedlock
Housing bulls are coming out of the woodwork just as housing is about to collapse for the second time.
New Home Sales at Record Low
Housing sales, housing starts, and mortgage refinancings have all collapsed along with the expiration of home-buyer tax credits.
Friday, June 25, 2010
Lousy U.S. Economy Pulling Rug Out From Under Housing Market / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Mike_Larson
Heads up, folks! It’s time for a very important housing market update from the front lines.
More than a year ago in these cyberpages, I told you that housing was stabilizing. All my indicators pointed to an improvement in conditions — less deadweight inventory on the market … increased sales rates … stabilization in pricing.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, June 24, 2010
U.S. Home Sales Take a Big Hit / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Mac_Slavo
For more evidence of the current deflationary trend look no further than the real estate market.
Thursday, June 24, 2010
FOMC Statement and U.S. Housing Market Post Tax Credit Fundamentals / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Paul_L_Kasriel
FOMC Statement “… low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period.” - No big surprises from the FOMC today. The committee's economic outlook was marginally downgraded and its financial conditions outlook was more substantially downgraded. To wit, "Financial conditions have become less supportive of economic growth on balance, largely reflecting developments abroad." And, oh yes, "Bank lending has continued to contract in recent months." The fact that KC Fed President Hoenig dissented about the "extended period" language also was no surprise, but of no significance either.
Wednesday, June 23, 2010
Little Surprise in U.S. Housing Market's Dive / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Andy_Sutton
Wall Street doubled over in anguish today as the latest numbers on existing home sales hit the news wires. I must say that I am totally confused as to why the decline was any kind of surprise, however. The mainstream press dutifully expressed every emotion from grief to even outrage as the number was reported and analyzed.
Tuesday, June 22, 2010
Here Comes the U.S. Housing Market Double Dip / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Justice_Litle
The housing market double dip is coming... along with an unpopped Australian bubble just waiting to burst.
Remember when "safe as houses" was a legitimate expression? Now it's a bit of an ironic joke. What counts as no joke at all, however, is the chaos investors will face when the second wave of housing market turmoil hits.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, June 20, 2010
Florida Real Estate Prices: Guess Which Direction This Chart Will Go / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Mac_Slavo
The US real estate market all but fell off a cliff two years ago. Though there has been a very minor recovery, or rather, stabilization, in home prices, we recently pointed out that it makes sense to be gloomy.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, June 16, 2010
Worried About Stocks? The U.S. Housing Market Should Be Your Real Concern / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Money_Morning
Shah Gilani writes: According to the latest reports on the U.S. housing market, the 96,400 homes hit with default notices last month were 7% less than in April and 22% less than in May 2009.
And that's not all. Foreclosure auctions were scheduled for the first time on 132,680 properties last month - 4% fewer than the month before and 16% fewer than in May a year ago, according to the Irvine, California-based RealtyTrac Inc.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, June 15, 2010
U.S. Housing Market Crash Next leg Down Signaled by Bulging Inventory / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Mike_Whitney
Did the Federal Reserve collude with the big banks to hold millions of houses off the market until the Fed finished adding $1.25 trillion to the banks reserves? Did the Fed do this to make it appear that its bond purchasing plan (quantitative easing) was stabilizing prices when, in fact, it was the reduction in supply that stopped prices from plunging? It sure looks that way. This is from Bloomberg News:
Tuesday, June 01, 2010
Nothing Can Fix the U.S. Housing Market / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Kevin_Duffey
The government could force mortgage rates across the board to 2%, it won’t matter. They can re-introduce a tax credit worth $15,000 for anyone buying a house, it still won’t matter. Don’t you get it? You can’t fix housing with artificial demand. Tell me where you can find enough buyers of homes that have money for a down payment and who can purchase a home without government incentives, and then have the job and income security to not be at risk of not being able to afford to live there.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, May 22, 2010
U.S. Housing Market Foreclosures Menace, Woman’s Home Confiscated Over Small Water Bill / Politics / US Housing
By: Submissions
One raw day in early February, Vicki Valentine stood by helplessly as real estate investors snatched her West Baltimore home over what began with an unpaid city water bill of $362.
As snow threatened to fall, she watched a work crew hired by the new owners punch out the lock on her front door. A sheriff's deputy was on the scene while Valentine and her teenage son piled whatever they could into a borrowed car.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, May 20, 2010
A Strategic Proposal to Combat Strategic Residential Housing Market Mortgage Defaults / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Paul_L_Kasriel
More and more we are hearing that occupants of residential real estate with mortgages far in excess of the current market value of the real estate are choosing to default on those mortgages. It is not that they do not have the income to keep current on their principal and interest payments. Rather, they have made a calculation that it would take many years for the value of their properties to rise back to the amount outstanding on the mortgages of these properties.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, May 18, 2010
We're Not Out of the U.S. Housing Market Mess Just Yet / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Dr_Jeff_Lewis
Perhaps more than stock and bond investors, precious metals investors must be privy to important macroeconomic indicators. Of the most important is money supply, followed immediately by lending and credit availability. These three factors all come together to establish how expensive or inexpensive paper currencies are and how silver and gold should be relatively priced to their paper counterparts.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, May 18, 2010
U.S. Housing Market New Home Construction Up, But Building Permits Drop / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Mac_Slavo
In the not so bad news category, the government reports that the housing market is rebounding:
Sunday, May 16, 2010
What is The Fundamental Value of Housing? / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Andrew_Butter
The spectre of housing bubbles is starting to raise its head again, along with discussions about what the central banks, regulators and/or governments should do about it.
House prices have been going through the roof in China, there is talk about a bubble in Australia and yet over there prices keep rising, Canadian house-prices are looking “toppy” and in Riyadh they are insane.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, May 09, 2010
A "Lost Decade" Ahead For U.S. Housing Market / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Mike_Whitney
In its effort to rescue the housing market, the Obama administration has created a Frankensystem which neither allows the market to clear nor solves the intractable social problems of lost equity and foreclosure. Obama needs to step-back and take a look at the mess he's made by following the advice of financial industry reps and bank lobbyists. Housing is in a shambles. The market is presently stitched together with buyer-assistance programs, loan modifications programs, new homebuyer subsidies, foreclosure abatement programs, principal reduction programs, historic low interest rates, "easy-term" financing, and government-backed loans.
Saturday, April 24, 2010
U.S. Housing Market Changes Opening Up Surprising Pockets of Investment Value / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Mike_Larson
Boy did last week’s column prompt a lot of comments. And frankly I’m not surprised. Many people thought I was nuts when I called the housing market top in 2005. They simply didn’t believe my prediction that the market would crash, rather than gently level off.
Thursday, April 22, 2010
U.S. Housing Market is a Buy Says Rent Ratios, HAI and Cap Rates / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Paul_L_Kasriel
In Wednesdays (April 21) NYT, David Leonhardt writes that rent ratios - the market price of a house divided by the annual rent of a comparable house - are suggesting that in many regions of the country, the purchase of a house makes more economic sense than renting a comparable house (In Sour Home Market, Buying Often Beats Renting).
Sunday, April 18, 2010
U.S. Housing Market Crash Update, There's A World of Pain Ahead / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Mike_Whitney
The brief period of stabilization in housing appears to be over and the next leg-down has begun. Mortgage rates are edging higher, foreclosures are on the rise, and the government programs that supported the sector, are being phased out. The uptick in bank-owned properties (REO) is adding to surplus inventory and pushing down prices. Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, April 17, 2010
Financial Regulators and Insiders had Foreknoweldge of the U.S. Housing Bubble / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Washingtons_Blog
Greenspan and many other bankers, regulators and industry insiders say that "no one could have known" that we were in a housing bubble.
Friday, April 16, 2010
How to Sell Your House, Lessons for Today’s U.S. Housing Market / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Mike_Larson
By now you should know I believe the biggest story for the capital markets is no longer housing. It’s interest rates.
But that doesn’t mean I’m ignoring the housing market. Far from it. Heck, you could say I’m more interested in housing than ever before for a simple reason: I have a home to sell!
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, April 16, 2010
Anatomy of a Housing Market Crisis / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Sol_Palha
"A fool despises good counsel, but a wise man takes it to heart." ~ Confucius, BC 551-479, Chinese Ethical Teacher, Philosopher
Freddie and Fannie certainly had a large role to play in the housing crisis and many may claim that they were the main contributors of the housing crisis which eventually resulted in a market meltdown. Before we proceed let's get some background info on these two chaps.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, April 16, 2010
U.S. Housing Market Debt, The Government’s Loan Mod Bizarro World / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Tim_Iacono
Just when you think that the statistics can’t get any worse for the graduating class of the Obama Administration’s Home Affordable Modification Program, they do. Otherwise known as HAMP, this program is apparently designed to convince people who really can’t afford their current debt load that they really can.
Friday, April 02, 2010
U.S. Commercial Property Market BubbleOmics / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Andrew_Butter
Some folks made a fortune after the S&L buying up commercial property for a song, tidying it up, holding it for a few years and then cashing out.
Will history repeat itself?
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, April 02, 2010
The U.S. Housing Real Estate Bubble the “Experts” Missed / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Mike_Stathis
When many people mention the collapse these days, the most common response I've heard is "everyone knew it was coming." Perhaps you've heard the same.
This just goes to show you that the mind can play tricks on people when time has passed.
Thursday, April 01, 2010
More Financial Bubbles Ahead in the US Housing Market / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Bob_Chapman
Bubbles have a hard time coming to an end, especially in residential real estate. Underlying forces such as government intervention to prolong the agony and the abject stupidity of builders extends the bubbles.
Monday, March 29, 2010
Feeble New U.S. Housing Market Rescue Plan Not Enough / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Sy_Harding
Historically, the two main driving forces for the economy have been the housing and auto industries. Whether the problems were rising interest rates that affected their sales, or bursting bubbles that scared consumers, economic slowdowns usually began with problems in the housing and auto industries, and the first signs of recovery were usually seen in the same two industries. The historical pattern has continued this time around.
Monday, March 22, 2010
Three Reasons U.S. Housing Market Will Head Lower / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Q1_Publishing
It’s one of the most pressing questions facing investors today.
Is the housing market about to recover?
With the housing market at the center of the credit crunch, any recovery in the housing market could quickly turn the Wall Street recovery into a Main Street recovery.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, March 19, 2010
More Ugly U.S. Housing Market Data, Forget the Bottom and Recovery Hype / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Adam_Brochert
Every month, tout TV and mainstream financial sites like Yahoo! Finance and Marketwatch re-print propaganda pieces from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) and other vested interests related to real estate. The headlines are ALWAYS spun to look positive, as comfort is more important than truth. The NAR has been calling the bottom in housing every month since before the top was in! Statistics are twisted and tricks like comparing the current month to the prior month instead of the same month in the prior year are used routinely to baffle, confuse, satiate and/or soothe those who still turn to mainstream media sources for truthful data.
Tuesday, March 09, 2010
U.S. Real Estate Confusion or Lies? / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Mike_Stathis
Do you ever become confused over daily economic data?
If not, then you probably aren’t paying close attention.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, February 28, 2010
Want to Fix the U.S. Housing Market? Listen to the Gipper / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Mike_Whitney
There is a remedy for the housing crisis. And it doesn't involve an agonizing decade of uncertainty while supply adjusts to demand. All Obama needs to do is to stop artificially propping up the market and let the chips fall where they may. That means the Fed should stop buying mortgage-backed securities to keep long-term interest rates low. That means the congress should not renew the $8,000 first-time homebuyers subsidy. That means the FHA should modify its lending standards so that mortgage applicants have to meet normal criteria for securing a mortgage.
Friday, February 26, 2010
U.S. Housing Market Recovery Forecast / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Mike_Larson
I’ve been talking about interest rates an awful lot lately … and for good reason. The next BIG story in the bond market is clearly the sovereign debt crisis.
But I don’t want to ignore the housing market, either.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, February 24, 2010
BubbleOmics, Reflecting On My 2008 U.S. House Price Prediction / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Andrew_Butter
What worries me about what is increasingly looking like a bottom and bounce in US prices is mainly that it’s too soon.
Bubbles are about mal-investment; normally created by credit under one guise or another. That’s how the South Sea Bubble got going, same thing for 1929, Dot.com and housing; people start paying a price because they can get credit (and they think prices are going up), rather than weighing their needs against their means. Fear plays a part too, fear of missing the boat and “never being able to own a house”, you can’t blame people for that.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, February 23, 2010
Washington Trying Hide Commercial Real Estate Crisis to Prevent Double Dip Recession / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Money_Morning
Shah Gilani writes: Sooner or later, mounting losses on commercial real estate could crash through the market's 2009 optimism and send the economy and stocks into a double-dip downturn.
Monday, February 22, 2010
Commercial Real Estate Apocalypse 2011-2012 / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Mike_Shedlock
Inquiring minds are digging deep into a 190 page PDF by the Congressional Oversight Panel regarding Commercial Real Estate Losses and the Risk to Financial Stability.
Monday, February 15, 2010
Are Lumber Prices Signaling a Rebound in U.S. House Prices? / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Money_Morning
Jon D. Markman writes: Source:Crude oil, gold, steel and commodity stocks have all taken it on the chin to varying degrees so far this year.
But not every commodity has suffered this same tough fate. In fact, there's even been a major standout. It's a commodity that most investors rarely think about.
Friday, February 12, 2010
U.S. Real Estate Market and Interest Rates in 2010 and Beyond / Interest-Rates / US Housing
By: Mike_Larson
Last week’s World MoneyShow in Orlando was a huge success! I had the pleasure of meeting several of you at the Gaylord Palms Hotel, and I couldn’t have been happier with the constructive feedback you shared.
But I also know that not everyone could make the trek. And I don’t want to leave you out in the cold!
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, February 09, 2010
An Insiders View of the U.S. Real Estate Train Wreck / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: David_Galland
The first time I spoke with real estate entrepreneur Andy Miller was in late 2007, when I asked him to serve on the faculty of a Casey Research Summit. And there was no one in the nation I wanted more than Andy to address the critical topic of real estate.
My interest in Andy was due to the fact that he has been singularly successful in pretty much all aspects of the real estate market, including financing and developing large projects - such as shopping centers, apartment communities, office buildings, and warehouses - from one end of the country to the other. His expertise has also allowed him to build an impressive business providing assistance to large financial institutions that need help in dealing with problem commercial real estate loans. As you might suspect, business is booming.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, February 09, 2010
How to Make Money From South Florida Real Estate / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: DailyWealth
Dr. Steve Sjuggerud writes: Ah... 70 degree weather, with toes in the sand...
While the East Coast was hit with a record snowstorm over the weekend, my wife and I spent a few days away from it all in Palm Beach, Florida.
Monday, January 25, 2010
Insider's View of the U.S. Real Estate Train Wreck Crash / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: David_Galland
The first time I spoke with real estate entrepreneur Andy Miller was in late 2007, when I asked him to serve on the faculty of a Casey Research Summit. As John Mauldin, a former faculty member himself, knows, we're very selective with our speakers. And there was no one in the nation I wanted more than Andy to address the critical topic of real estate.
Monday, January 25, 2010
How To Stop U.S. Housing Market Foreclosures / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Danny_Schechter
It is Time For A Moratorum and Debt Relief as Government Aid Fails To Reach Those In Need, Here as in Haiti?
Stung by the election of Scott Brown in Massachusetts and the abandonment of his health care initiative by members of Congress, and fearful of a political backlash President Obama may himself not be “too big to fail.” He has now “pivoted,” to use a favorite phase from the pundits, and shifted his focus to trying to fix a still deteriorating economy.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, January 08, 2010
Ignore the Crowd … It’s Time to Invest in Commercial Real Estate 2010 / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Money_Morning
Jon D. Markman writes: Of all the independent institutional research that I receive, some of my favorite comes from Justin Mamis, a veteran of all the financial wars we've seen over the past five decades.
Friday, January 08, 2010
The Big Picture for U.S. Housing Market 2010 / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Graham_Summers
The typical essay I write on these pages is 700-1,500 words or so. Today’s essay will be setting an all time record for Gains, Pains, & Capital because my first 1,000 words are the following:
Thursday, January 07, 2010
US Home Sales Plummet, Personal Bankruptcies Soar / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Global_Research
Tom Eley writes: An important measure of future home sales fell far more sharply in November than economists had expected. The National Association of Realtors (NAR) index on pending home sales—contracts agreed upon but not finalized—dropped by 16 percent in November, more than three times what economists interviewed by the Dow Jones Newswires had anticipated.
Thursday, January 07, 2010
Bernanke Says "Easy Money did not Cause the Housing Bubble" / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Mike_Whitney
In an effort to defend himself against his critics, Fed chairman Ben Bernanke spent over 2 hours at the Annual Meeting of the American Economic Association in Atlanta trying to prove that low interest rates were not the main cause of the housing bubble. Here's an excerpt from Bernanke's speech:
Wednesday, January 06, 2010
Why Adding Bureaucracy Won't Halt the Housing Market Blues / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Money_Morning
Martin Hutchinson writes: U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's latest thesis is that the home mortgage bubble had little to do with record low interest rates, and was actually much more a problem of regulation.
Thursday, December 31, 2009
Is the U.S. Housing Market Recovery for Real? / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Money_Morning
Martin Hutchinson writes: Existing home sales surprised the markets by rising 7.4% to an annual rate of 6.54 million units in November, the highest since February 2007, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR). That's only 10% below the all-time peak in 2005.
Friday, December 18, 2009
What Motivates U.S. Home Owners in High Mortgage Negative Equity Properties to Stay Put? / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Tim_Iacono
The question of what motivates underwater homeowners to either stay put and continue to make their mortgage payments (if they can) or "walk away" from their home (and their financial obligations) has been receiving an increasing amount of attention in recent weeks.
Wednesday, December 16, 2009
U.S. Housing Market Will Continue to Suffer in 2010 / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Oakshire_Financial
Housing prices aren’t going anywhere. Not for a long, long time.
This is not information that I am excited to be admitting to, as I am a homeowner and am currently in the process of buying another. Unfortunately, I have had way too many cold buckets of reality dumped on me over the years to ignore such a simple truth.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, December 15, 2009
Buying a House – A Risky Proposition? / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Axel_Merk
After renting four homes in the San Francisco Bay Area this decade, I bought a house last month. I had been a long-time advocate of renting rather than buying, so what drove me to buy a house now? Has the time come to buy a house as an inflation hedge? Buying a house should be a matter of risk, not price.
Tuesday, December 15, 2009
U.S. Housing Underwater, Securitized, and Screwed by the "Pass the Trash" Strategy / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Mike_Shedlock
Calculated Risk had an interesting post last Saturday about Refinancing with Negative Equity.
His post refers to an article written by David Streitfeld from the NY Times Interest Rates Are Low, but Banks Balk at Refinancing citing among other things the plights of Mark Belvedere who owes $235,000 on a condo that would sell for barely half that today, and Andrew Knapp who has tried twice to refinance and failed. From the Times...
Sunday, December 13, 2009
U.S. Housing Market, All Bubbles Pop, No Matter What Color They Are / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Mike_Shedlock
I frequently agree with ideas expressed on New Geography but certainly not Ian Abley's article There is no "Free Market" Housing Solution
Read full article... Read full article...The common line used by advocates of housing affordability has been that the solution lies in “free markets”. Yet this "free market" solution does not address the fundamental problem which is really a political one.
Thursday, December 10, 2009
U.S. Housing Market Equity Cushions and Impact of Negative Equity / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Tim_Iacono
A report last month indicating that almost 25 percent of all borrowers now owe more on their mortgage than their homes are worth punctuated one of the more dramatic turn of events in the ongoing credit crisis and housing bubble aftermath. Twenty five percent!
Saturday, December 05, 2009
U.S. Housing Market Improves as Rents Finally Cover Mortgage Payments Again / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: DailyWealth
Dr. Steve Sjuggerud writes: Nobody has noticed... but an incredible thing has happened: Rents are finally covering mortgage payments again in residential real estate.
Saturday, December 05, 2009
U.S. Housing Market, Worst Behind Us Or Another Downleg? / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Tim_Wood
This past spring and summer there was a surge in real estate activities. The consensus amongst the realtors and builders that I talk to are of the opinion that the worst is behind us. However, the charts say we are now seeing another housing slow down.
Tuesday, December 01, 2009
Eight Ways to Profit as the U.S. Housing Market Recovery / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Money_Morning
Larry D. Spears writes: If you were interested in homes for anything other than personal shelter, November was a pretty discouraging month, with continuing gloom the most prominent feature of virtually every report issued on the housing sector.
Whether it was the disappointing quarterly earnings numbers for America’s top two home-improvement companies, the dismal listing of October housing starts and new building permits or the downbeat readings for the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Sentiment Index, you had to dig pretty deep to find any hint of a near-term rebound in the housing sector.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, November 25, 2009
The Fed Fears New Mortgage Crisis Could Derail Economic Recovery / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Claus_Vogt
Although the number was just revised downward, the U.S. economy still expanded by 2.8 percent during the third quarter. So it definitely looks like the recession is history.
What’s more, last Thursday the Conference Board published its Leading Economic Indicator (LEI) for October. This indicator has a strong predictive history, having predicted each recession since the early 1960s as well as the one we’ve just gone through.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, November 25, 2009
FHA Train Wreck, New U.S. Housing Market Crisis / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Andrew_Abraham
Who do you believe these days… the Govt…the news…or an industry insider? My bet would be with the industry insider.
Robert Toll the principle of the largest luxury home builder Toll Brothers said the other day that the Federal Housing Administration (FHA) is a train wreck waiting to happen.
Tuesday, November 24, 2009
U.S. Housing Market Dead Cat Bounce In Motion? / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Andrew_Butter
Looks like King Canute may be having a reality check; perhaps house prices are going to go where house prices are going to go?
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, November 24, 2009
U.S. House Prices Rise Again Despite Quarter of Mortgage Borrowers Underwater / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Mike_Shedlock
Case Shiller housing data for September came out today and Home Prices Rose For 4th Consecutive Month.
Friday, November 20, 2009
U.S. Housing Market Mortgage Meltdown Wave Two / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Mac_Slavo
In Mortgage Delinquencies Up 58% we pointed out that the American home owner borrower will continue to experience difficulty in making their monthly payments for years to come.
Wednesday, November 18, 2009
U.S. Real Estate Market Getting Worse / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Adam_Brochert
Though I am sure the National Association of Realtors has some statistic indicating that higher real estate prices are "right around the corner" (as they have every single month since before the crash started), real estate is getting worse. Wave 2 of the residential real estate crash is starting on cue and "walking away" from underwater mortgages has reached critical mass.
Thursday, November 12, 2009
Monetizing the U.S. Housing Market Debt / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Tim_Iacono
In reading the newspapers over the last eight months, since the Federal Reserve decided to print money on a massive scale in order to buy $300 billion in U.S. Treasuries along with about a trillion and a half dollars in mortgage related debt, these two groups of purchases have been viewed quite differently.
Monday, November 09, 2009
If the U.S. Housing Meltdown Was Bad Wait for Commercial Real Estate Crash / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Doug_Horning
That’s right, the next train wreck will be in commercial real estate. Couldn’t be worse than last year’s residential market crash? That remains to be seen. But it’s coming soon, probably as early as the second quarter of next year, and there’s nothing that can prevent it. The government will intervene, trying desperately to delay the day of reckoning, and may even succeed. For a while. But make no mistake about it, that train is going off the tracks no matter what.
Thursday, November 05, 2009
The Great U.S. Housing Market Foreclosure Robbery Of The 21st Century / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Robert_Singer
The Center for Responsible Lending estimates that there have now been 1,000,000 foreclosures filed so far in 2009 and the group expects the foreclosure number to double before the end of the year.
U.S. Home Vacancies Hit 18.7 Million on Bank Seizures (Update2) [1]
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, November 05, 2009
Fannie Mae's New Deed for Lease Program, Rent your Home from the Government / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Trader_Mark
There are so many rescue programs going on, I am losing track. Thanks to reader Patrick for notifying me of this; I have been so busy staring at the mirror (while clicking heels 3x) slowly repeating "prosperity is back" I sometime forget how "prosperity" is being achieved.
Sunday, November 01, 2009
Before Walking Away From Your Mortgage Consult An Attorney / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Mike_Shedlock
I occasionally have people ask me what they should do about their underwater mortgage. I sometimes give them an opinion as to what I think might be appropriate but I always tell them to consult an attorney or You Walk Away (the latter has attorneys for the states they do business in).
Friday, October 30, 2009
U.S. Government Policy Is Distorting the Housing Market / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Mike_Larson
Every few months for the past couple of years, I’ve made it a point to update you on the state of the housing market. I feel it’s essential to do so because …
Friday, October 30, 2009
U.S. Housing Market Rebound? Not so fast! / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Mike_Whitney
Senate Democrats are a dogged bunch. And they're not easily deterred from their primary duty of kowtowing the big banks. Case in point, the first-time home-buyer tax credit, the controversial bill which provides an $8,000 tax credit (re: subsidy) for new home buyers. Changes in the bill, will provide a $6,500 credit to homeowners "earning up to $250,000 for couples" if they have lived in their home for five years.
Thursday, October 29, 2009
Commercial Real-Estate Crush, The Next Crisis Not to Be Wasted? / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Matthew_J_Novak
As I walked home recently from a weekend trip to the grocery store, I passed a total of 13 vacant offices with signs saying "for lease" or "for sale." These spaces ranged from approximately 500 to 5,000 square feet according to their signs, and they are stretched along a main, commercial street in the center of Tucson, AZ. There is also an eight-screen movie theater that sits empty as well.
Wednesday, October 28, 2009
U.S. House Prices, S&P Case-Shiller Rolling Over? / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Andrew_Butter
In May the S&P Case-Shiller Index started to tick upwards, plenty of people thought that was not going to last (Has the U.S. Housing Market Hit Bottom? ), yet it has edged upwards for three months now.
Tuesday, October 27, 2009
U.S. Housing Market Has Bottomed, Now is the Time to Buy / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Money_Morning
Martin Hutchinson writes: It looks like the U.S. housing sector has bottomed. In fact, if you’ve been thinking about buying a house, this may be the time to make your move.
Let me tell you why.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, October 23, 2009
A Mixed Picture In The U.S. Housing Market / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Sy_Harding
In early 2007, after the real estate bubble began bursting and the extent of the problems from sub-prime mortgages became more clear, I predicted the aftermath would have the economy in the worst recession since 1973-74 by the end of the year (2007).
Friday, October 23, 2009
U.S. Housing Market, Tax Credits, and Realtors / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Tim_Iacono
So, the home buyers tax credit is in the news again and it's becoming quite controversial...
Proponents would like to see the program extended well into next year and have the credit expanded to $15,000 (or more), removing the first-time home buyer requirement which, by the way, really didn't restrict this to new home buyers at all, just those who hadn't owned a home in the last three years.
Friday, October 16, 2009
Commercial Real Estate Vacancies Musical Chairs / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Mike_Shedlock
Commercial real estate vacancies hit nearly 25% in Phoenix Valley area. Scottsdale and Southeast Valley vacancies are even higher. Please consider Office vacancy rates in Valley hit record.
Tuesday, September 29, 2009
Connecting the Dots to the U.S. Housing Market Recovery / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Mark_B_Rasmussen
Dot 1
There is a “shadow market” of 2.7 million homes that are technically in foreclosure but are yet to be reclaimed by the lender, says a Wall Street Journal study today. While it’s no secret banks are kicking the can down the road on finalizing foreclosures (and consequently accepting the mortgage loan as a loss) this is the first guess at the total number of such homes that we’ve heard:
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, September 27, 2009
Commercial Real Estate Day of Reckoning is Here / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: DailyWealth
Tom Dyson writes: This weekend, I had pizza and beer with an executive at a commercial real estate company...
My friend's company is one of the largest office landlords in America, with big investments up and down the East Coast. My friend manages the debt-finance division.
Wednesday, September 23, 2009
How Does One Tell If Houses Are Overpriced? / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Mike_Shedlock
Tonight I received a question from a "Concerned Canadian" about home prices.
However, my answer does not change regardless of where someone lives. The same metrics apply universally.
Saturday, September 19, 2009
We're All Going to Pay For the Housing Market Mess / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Adam_Brochert
The citizens of the United States will be paying to clean up the collapse of the real estate bubble. It doesn't matter if one participated in the housing boom or not - we are all going to pay and pay dearly for this mess. Renters, owners and speculators are all equally on the hook if they are taxpayers (did you know that 40% of people living in the U.S. pay or owe no federal income tax?).
Saturday, September 19, 2009
U.S. Housing Market Foreclosure Prevention Tactics Useless / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Mike_Shedlock
An interesting report in the Los Angeles Times shows that a person with super-prime credit scores is more likely to walk away from an underwater mortgage than a person with a subprime credit rating.
Friday, September 11, 2009
U.S. Housing Market Foreclosure Filings Top 300,000 for Sixth Straight Month / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Mike_Shedlock
Foreclosure filings are still on a rampage as noted by the Bloomberg headline U.S. Foreclosure Filings Top 300,000 for Sixth Straight Month.
Tuesday, September 08, 2009
U.S. Housing Market, The 800,000 Pound Deflationary Gorilla / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Adam_Brochert
The housing market is rapidly deteriorating under the surface. A housing price collapse is a highly deflationary event because it affects so many banks and individuals. We are not close to a bottom in the real estate market and it is essentially almost impossible for it to come before the 2011-2012 time frame. If our government insists on continuing to subvert what's left of the free market system in real estate, it may take another decade to find the bottom.
Tuesday, September 01, 2009
The U.S. Housing Market's False Dawn / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Money_Morning
Martin Hutchinson writes: Is the U.S. housing market truly at a turning point, as investors seem to increasingly believe? Or is this actually a false dawn, meaning that there are problems and pain ahead for those who turned bullish too soon?
Tuesday, September 01, 2009
Six Million Home Foreclosures: Next Ticking Lehman-Style Bomb…FDIC Insured Banks? / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Andrew_Butter
Over a year ago Hank Paulson declared "The US Banking System Is A Safe and Sound One", the market's reaction to that piece of news was to short Fannie and Freddie into oblivion. A key issue there was holdings of mortgaged backed securities, specifically RMBS; valuations of those things depended on (a) their credit rating, (and once the LTV started to slip the rules said they had to be downgraded, so the price tanked), and (b) there was a rule of thumb that the value of those things was what an equivalent Treasury cost, less the cost of a CDS to insure them; when fear took over, the cost of a CDS went through the roof, the "market" (it never was a real market), froze. Then there was Lehman.
Friday, August 28, 2009
U.S. Housing Market Stabilises, But Don't Expect an Rip-Rooaring Rebound / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Money_and_Markets
Mike Larson writes: Almost four months ago, I made one of the most dramatic shifts in my investment outlook ever. After warning — in advance — that we would experience a devastating housing and mortgage market crash … and after repeatedly refuting all the early — and wrong — bottom callers during the four-year collapse, I wrote the following in my Money and Markets column four months ago:
Tuesday, August 25, 2009
Huge Plunge In Mortgage Cure Rates Portends Housing Market Foreclosure Disaster / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Mike_Shedlock
Mortgage cure rates have fallen off a cliff. For those unfamiliar with the term, a "cure rate" pertains to those who go delinquent on loans then catch up and become current. Late payments that don't "cure" have a tendency to get later and later over time, before they eventually default.
Saturday, August 22, 2009
Do U.S. Housing Stats Really Indicate Housing Market Bottom? / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Sy_Harding
In 2006 I predicted the bursting of the real estate bubble would spread its problems into the financial industry and broad economy to create one of the worst recessions since the 1930s. In 2008 I said the problems began in the real estate industry and the eventual recovery will have to begin in the real estate industry.
Friday, August 21, 2009
Liar Loans Were Not The Problem: Don't Worry About Re-Sets...Just A Scare Like Y-2K / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Andrew_Butter
Years ago I got a project building a credit scoring system for a bank that did auto loans in Dubai, it was a lot of fun, I got hold of tons of data, did a multivariate regression analysis, and the result was absolutely useless.
Friday, August 21, 2009
U.S. Housing Market Hidden Backlog of Foreclosures / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Mike_Shedlock
When it comes to foreclosures, there is no such thing as a "safe state". Even states that did not engage in widespread use of liar loans and other silly mortgage lending practices are struggling with foreclosures. The issue is jobs, and unemployment is rising everywhere.
Tuesday, August 18, 2009
Bright Side of Falling House Prices / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Mike_Shedlock
"Morally Conflicted in Arizona" writes:
Monday, August 17, 2009
Wave of Foreclosures About to Break U.S. Housing Market Dam / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Mike_Shedlock
A summary of Second Quarter 2009 Negative Equity Data from First American CoreLogic shows that Nearly One-Third Of All Mortgages Are Underwater.
Sunday, August 16, 2009
U.S. Housing Market Crash Means Collapse Of The "Ownership Society" / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Mike_Shedlock
Bush's "ownership society" has collapsed under the dead weight of debt. There is too much debt and too little income to support it. Please consider President shifts focus to renting, not owning.
Thursday, August 13, 2009
U.S. Housing Market Recovery Will Be Slow as Foreclosures Continue to Weigh on Housing Prices / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Money_Morning
Bob Blandeburgo writes: Prices for single-family and condominium homes in the second quarter fell by a record 15.6% and 19.8% year-over-year in the United States, mainly due to foreclosures.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, August 13, 2009
U.S. Housing Bear Market Cash for Clunkers Solution / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Mike_Shedlock
Caroline Baum sent me the following Bloomberg clips.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, August 10, 2009
Shattered U.S. Housing Market Dreams and the Painful Process of Household Deleveraging / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Mike_Shedlock
Inquiring minds are reading a Comstock Special Report on Deleveraging the U.S. Economy.
Tuesday, August 04, 2009
Pressure to Remain on Commercial Real Estate for a Decade / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Mike_Shedlock
Retail, office, and industrial real estate are all suffering to various degrees.
Sunday, August 02, 2009
U.S. Housing Market Florida Condo Bust / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Mike_Shedlock
In case you did not realize just how bad the condo bust is in Florida, this story will clue you in: Florida highrise has 32 stories, but just 1 tenant.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, August 01, 2009
U.S. Housing Market Forecast, One Dead Cat Bounce and Two Sucker Rallies to Go? / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Andrew_Butter
The big excitement this month was the tiny up-tick in the May S&P Case-Shiller Index. "Seasonally adjusted" the number was still down on April, but then it's not clear what's "seasonal" about a house-price crash. Right now the bulk of the market is driven by foreclosure sales and there is no evidence that is "seasonal".
Saturday, August 01, 2009
U.S. Housing Market Winds Shifting, Investor Flexibility Breeds Opportunity / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Money_and_Markets
If there’s one thing you learn fast in this business, its flexibility. If you stay rigid, unwavering, and unyielding in the face of a mounting pile of contrary technical and fundamental evidence, you’re not being disciplined. You’re being inflexible. And you’re going to go broke pretty darn quick!
Thursday, July 30, 2009
How Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac Helped Create the U.S. Housing Market Bubble / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Money_Morning
Shah Gilani writes: Fannie Mae (NYSE: FNM), originally designated as a "government-sponsored enterprise" (GSE), was born in 1938 as a child of U.S. President Franklin Delano Roosevelt's Great-Depression-fighting "New Deal," and was designed to stimulate mortgage lending.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, July 30, 2009
U.S. Housing Market Bottom or Heading for Another Collapse? / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Money_Morning
Jason Simpkins writes: A rash of positive housing data has given some analysts hope that the housing market has bottomed and an economic recovery is underway. But the soaring unemployment and rising mortgage rates could lead to a double-dip plunge for the housing market.
Thursday, July 30, 2009
U.S. Housing Market Mortgage Debt Walk Away Hypocrites Comments / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Mike_Shedlock
Yesterday's post Emails from Housing Hypocrites about Ethics generated an unusually high number of responses. Let's take a look at some of them.
Wednesday, July 29, 2009
Has the U.S. Housing Market Hit Bottom? / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Tim_Iacono
Now that a number of recent housing reports are generating some incredibly positive headlines and the global economy appears to be slowly digging its way out of an enormous hole that was created last fall when the world nearly came to an end, the burning question on the minds of millions of people is ... Has the housing market hit bottom?
Wednesday, July 29, 2009
Emails from Housing Hypocrites about Ethics of Walking Away from Debt / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Mike_Shedlock
In Preemptive Defaults I discussed how consumers "trapped in a whirlpool of debt, interest payments, and fees spiraling out of control, finally see the light of preemptive defaults and elect to walk away".
Friday, July 24, 2009
U.S. Housing Market Crash Real Story as Home Vacancies Hit 19 Million / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Mike_Shedlock
Bloomberg is reporting U.S. Home Vacancies Hit 18.7 Million on Bank Seizures.
Wednesday, July 22, 2009
Bernanke Terrified by Commercial Real Estate Market Crash / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Mike_Shedlock
When a member of the Fed admits a problem, especially chairman Bernanke, you can rest assured the problem is far worse than what they admit.
Wednesday, July 22, 2009
Commercial Real Estate Trend Accelerates To Downside / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Mike_Shedlock
The commercial real estate bust is now in full swing as Moody's Commercial Real Estate Scorecard Accelerates To Downside.
Thursday, July 16, 2009
U.S. Housing Market Foreclosures Hit Record 1.5 Million / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Mike_Shedlock
The grim but not unexpected housing data shows U.S. Foreclosure Filings Hit Record 1.5 Million in First Half.
Wednesday, July 15, 2009
Peak to Trough Case Shiller and CAR Home Price Declines / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Mike_Shedlock
The following charts were produced by my friend "TC" who has been monitoring California Association of Realtors (CAR) data, DQNews data, and Case-Shiller Data. Although individual cities topped at varying times, the top-10 and top-20 cities peaked in a June-July 2006 timeframe.
Monday, July 13, 2009
U.S. Housing Update - How Far To The Bottom? / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Mike_Shedlock
Inquiring minds have been asking for another housing update.
Using the Japan Nationwide Land Prices model as my guide, here is how I have called things in real time.
Friday, July 03, 2009
U.S. Housing Market Recovery Process Outlook / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Money_and_Markets
Mike Larson writes: Every few months, I feel it’s my duty to let you know the latest about what’s going on in housing. There is simply so much off-the-wall blather, bogus data, and downright misinformation out there that if I don’t cut through it, I don’t know who the heck will!
Thursday, July 02, 2009
U.S. Housing Market Blast From the Past / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Mike_Stathis
Real Estate Then and Now - I thought I’d take a look at where we are currently in real estate versus what I predicted a few years ago for those of you who never read either of my books.
Wednesday, July 01, 2009
U.S. Housing Market Deteriorates as Foreclosures Soar / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Mike_Shedlock
The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency says Delinquencies Double on Least-Risky Loans.
Read full article... Read full article...Delinquency rates on the least-risky mortgages more than doubled in the first quarter from a year earlier as U.S. efforts to help homeowners failed to keep pace with job losses that pushed more borrowers toward foreclosure.
Tuesday, June 30, 2009
U.S. House Prices Have Bottomed / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Uncommon_Wisdom
Larry Edelson writes: I just arrived at my condo in Bangkok, Thailand — my home away from home — where I’ll be working out of for the next four or five months. Expect me to cover lots of ground as I report from the front lines about the myriad profit opportunities that are popping up in Asia.
I’ll also give you an update on the latest developments in U.S. stocks … the dollar … gold … and oil.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, June 16, 2009
How Does an Excess Supply of Houses Get Remedied? / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Paul_L_Kasriel
By allowing prices to fall and by cutting production. This remedy applies to everything from hods to houses. It is well documented that the prices of houses have plummeted. What may be less well known is that newly-started production of single-family homes has come back into equilibrium with the sales of new single-family homes - at least through April.
Sunday, June 14, 2009
U.S. Housing Market Crash, "I'm Trapped In My House" / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Mike_Shedlock
In response to Median Home Prices In Detroit Fall To $6,000 I received the following from "GD" who feels literally trapped in his house.
Saturday, June 13, 2009
Median U.S. House Prices Crash To $6,000 in Detroit / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Mike_Shedlock
A few years ago, after my dad passed away, we sold his Danville, Illinois house for the grand total of $14,000 which was then split among 4 siblings. Friends where I live now cannot ,fathom a house selling for $14,000.
Thursday, June 11, 2009
U.S. Mortgage Market Remains Solidly Frozen / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Mike_Shedlock
On May 28 I wrote Mortgage Market Locks Up. Ten year treasury yields started to soar and 30 year mortgages for good borrowers jumped a full point from 4.5% to 5.5%.
Wednesday, June 10, 2009
Which Housing Mortgage Applications are More Important, Refinance or Purchases? / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Paul_L_Kasriel
As Chart 1 shows, mortgage applications for refinancing purposes have plummeted in recent weeks as applications for purchases appear to have bottomed and entered a very mild uptrend. With regard to aggregate demand, which category of applications - refis or purchases - should we get more excited about? For my money, purchases. Why? If a refi because of lower mortgage rates does not involve the cashing out of equity, the net effect is simply a redistribution of spendable income from ultimate lenders to ultimate borrowers. Yes, with the lower mortgage rate, the borrower now has lower monthly payments and, thus, more left over for the purchases of goods and services.
Wednesday, June 10, 2009
Has the U.S. Housing Market Made a Bottom? / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Hans_Wagner
Listening to the news and reading the headlines would make you believe the economy is recovering and the good times will come in the not to distant future. After all home sales rose 0.3% in April and all those green shoots are sprouting. Many analysts are stating we have seen the bottom in housing. That would be good news indeed. For housing was the major culprit of the latest recession. However, a look at the detail does not indicate a bottom is here yet.
Sunday, May 31, 2009
U.S. Housing Mortgage Market Meltdown, More Pain To Come / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Mike_Shedlock
T2 Partners has a phenomenal series of charts on the housing crisis stating Why There Is More Pain To Come.
The report is 69 pages almost all of them loaded with charts. I took a liberal selection below, adding plenty of comments, but please take a look at the original article for many additional charts. All charts below are from the article. Quotes from the article in italics. My comments are in plain text.
Sunday, May 31, 2009
U.S. Housing Bust, More Prime Mortgage Foreclosures; More Re-Defaults / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Mike_Shedlock
John Mauldin has another interesting weekly letter called This Way There Be Dragons. Here's a look at the section on housing. Emphasis mine.
Saturday, May 30, 2009
No U.S. Housing Bear Market Bottom Until 2011 / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: John_Mauldin
This Way Be Dragons
A Housing Update
More Prime Foreclosures In Our Future
Are We Paying Too Much for Health Care?
In fantasy novels the intrepid heroes come across a sign saying "This Way Be Dragons." Of course, they venture on, facing calamity and death, but such is the nature of fantasy novels. We live in a very real world, and if we don't turn around there will be some very nasty dragons in our future. This week we look at three possible paths we can lead the world down. We then review a number of charts and data on the housing market.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, May 28, 2009
U.S. Housing Bust: The Epic Garage Sale of America Is Under Way / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Graham_Summers
“Everyone’s furious at him” - In the last 18 months, the topics under discussion at my local café have shifted genres from comedy to horror. I know the CNBC news anchors are high-fiving over the alleged jump in consumer confidence. But if you judge sentiment based on un-massaged data points like the conversations in the café down the street, things aren’t improving.
Friday, May 22, 2009
U.S. Housing Markets Big Picture Isn't Pretty / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Peter_Schiff
While economists and real estate investors "celebrate" the slight deceleration in the pace of home price declines in the recent data, a quick look at home price trajectories over the past 100 and 50 years reveals little to cheer about and much to be feared.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, May 20, 2009
History Will Show That Alan Greenspan Was Responsible for the U.S. Housing Market Bubble / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Money_Morning
Back during the U.S. invasion of Iraq, when the U.S. government issued its now-famous deck of playing cards featuring pictures of the 52 arch villains of the Iraqi police state, Saddam Hussein's face adorned the Ace of Spades. If the Barack Obama administration wanted to engage in a similar public relations campaign - this time with a focus on the U.S. real estate crisis - that top card should be reserved for former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan. Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, May 15, 2009
Bubble Blower Greenspan Continues to Denie Responsbility for U.S. Housing Bust / Politics / US Housing
By: Peter_Schiff
When, during the invasion of Iraq, the United States Government issued its famous deck of playing cards with the 52 arch villains of the Iraqi police state, Saddam Hussein's face adorned the Ace of Spades. If the Obama Administration wanted to engage in a similar public relations campaign for the real estate crisis, the top card should be reserved for Alan Greenspan.
Wednesday, May 13, 2009
U.S. Real Estate Investing, Why It's Time to Buy REITs / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: DailyWealth
Porter Stansberry writes: Just a few weeks ago, I introduced my new theory of "The Great Re-Leveraging" to readers of my investment advisory. What is the Great Re-Leveraging? And how is it going to hand investors 60% in the next six months?
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, May 13, 2009
U.S. Housing Market Driven by Super Sizing Baby Boomers Now Going Bust / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: James_Quinn
Beneath the finely groomed blissful suburban façade of America lurk desperation, denial, hypocrisy, and anger. The kids of suburbia today have an entirely different reality than the suburbs I grew up in during the 1970’s. The Ozzie & Harriet idealized version of suburbia from the 1950’s has degenerated to the Green Day nightmare vision of today. The suburbs have mansion-like homes with spotless interiors, entertainment centers, three car garages, manicured lawns, and no soul. The children of suburbia have been brought up on soda pop and Ritalin.
Friday, May 08, 2009
The Nexus of the Real Estate Crash is Shifting to Commercial Properties / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Money_and_Markets
If you’ve been reading my stuff for the past few years, then you’ve been ahead of the real estate pack every step of the way.
I warned you well in advance that the housing market would implode … that the mortgage industry would collapse … and that virtually any stock exposed to building, construction, banking, or finance would suffer immense collateral damage.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, May 01, 2009
U.S. House Prices Measured in Gold / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Adrian_Ash
The broad sweep in housing-gold ratios is just as broad and as sweeping as both gold bulls and bears might hope...
"I WOULD LIKE to see a similar study using US housing market data," asks a note after BullionVault's recent chart of UK house-prices in gold.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, April 29, 2009
Foreclosure Prevention Bill Shields Mortgage Lenders From Fraud / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Mike_Shedlock
Inquiring minds are investigating provisions of a foreclosure prevention plan working its way through Congress. The plan throws away more taxpayer money while shielding servicers from misconduct. In other words, the bill does exactly what one might expect from this Congress and this administration. Please consider the Washington Post article Foreclosure Prevention Plan Expanded to 2nd Mortgages.
Tuesday, April 28, 2009
The Great U.S. Housing Market Depression, America Stop Thinking about Homes as Investments / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Uncommon_Wisdom
Sean Brodrick There’s something you need to do for your own mental health: Stop thinking about homes as investments.
You know those guys who are trying to reinflate the housing bubble — Tim Geithner, Ben Bernanke, Larry Summers — President Obama’s posse of the ethically challenged? They’re not your friends.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, April 24, 2009
U.S. Housing Market Crash, Why is the Media Misleading the Public? / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Mike_Whitney
Why is the media misleading the public about housing? The housing market is crashing. There are no "green shoots" or "glimmers of hope"; the market is worn to a stump, it's kaput. Still, whenever new housing figures are released, they're crunched and tweaked and spin-dried until they tell a totally different story; a hopeful story about an elusive "light in the tunnel". But there is no light in the tunnel; it's a myth. The truth is, there's no sign of a turnaround or a "bottom" in housing at all; not yet, at least. The real estate market is freefalling and it looks like its got a long way to go. So why is the media still peddling the same "rose-colored" claptrap that put the country in this pickle to begin with? Here's an example of media spin which appeared in Bloomberg News on Wednesday:
Tuesday, April 21, 2009
U.S. Housing Market Heading for a Bigger Crash, Another $4 Trillion of Asset Price Deflation / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Mike_Whitney
Due to the lifting of the foreclosure moratorium at the end of March, the downward slide in housing is gaining speed. The moratorium was initiated in January to give Obama's anti-foreclosure program---which is a combination of mortgage modifications and refinancing---a chance to succeed. The goal of the plan was to keep up to 9 million struggling homeowners in their homes, but it's clear now that the program will fall well-short of its objective.
Thursday, April 16, 2009
U.S. Housing Market Bust, Who is the ‘Greater Fool’ Now? / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Lorimer_Wilson
Many Americans, and indeed many people the world over, have lived in a Ponzi bubble economy for more than a decade. They have applied the Greater Fool Theory in the false belief that they would always be able to sell their house or their stocks or bonds or other highly leveraged assets to “bigger fools” than they were for buying them in the first place. With the collapse of the housing bubble and the stock market it begs the question “Who is the ‘greater fool’ now?Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, April 14, 2009
U.S. Real Estate/ Credit Bubble Deflation 18: Tick-Tick-Tick.... / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Steve_Moyer
"To restore the wealth lost in the current financial crisis, the Treasury would have to monetize some $30 trillion of toxic assets, almost ten times what the Geithner Treasury is currently contemplating, and twice the size of current U.S. annual GDP. Add to that about $10 trillion of value lost in the collapse of commodity prices and another $10 trillion in real property values, and we have a wealth loss of $50 trillion." ~ Henry Liu, Asia Times via Mike Whitney
Wednesday, April 08, 2009
Why Wall Street is Missing the U.S. Housing Market Recovery / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Money_Morning
William Patalon III writes: Wall Street created the U.S. housing bubble and now it's missing the real estate rebound.
And Andrew Waite understands why. Waite is the publisher of the Personal Real Estate Investor , a glossy magazine that focuses on investors who buy houses or condos to manage for income or to fix up and sell for a profit. But he's not some industry cheerleader whose statements are nothing but spin.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, April 05, 2009
U.S. Housing Market Case Shiller March 2009 Analysis / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Mike_Shedlock
Inquiring minds are considering the Case Shiller Home Price Release for March 2009.
New York, March 31, 2009 – Data through January 2009, released today by Standard & Poor's for its S&P/Case-Shiller1 Home Price Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices, shows continued broad based declines in the prices of existing single family homes across the United States, with 13 of the 20 metro areas showing record rates of annual decline, and 14 reporting declines in excess of 10% versus January 2008.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, April 03, 2009
U.S. Real Estate Ownership and Investing Dangerous Myths / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Jennifer_Barry
In March, I started reading a new rush of positive news headlines about U.S. real estate. According to the U.S. Census Bureau, new home sales increased 4.7% in February in comparison to the January revised figures. This was the biggest leap since 2003. MDA Dataquick reported existing home and condominium sales jumped 43% year-over-year. Mortgage applications also rose 32.2% in the third week of March. Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, April 01, 2009
Collapsing Commercial Real Estate Could Snuff out U.S. Economic Recovery / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Money_Morning
William Patalon III writes: Stock prices have rallied for much of last month. The housing market has shown some early signs of life. And some of the latest economic reports haven't been the disasters that many experts feared. Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, March 25, 2009
Housing Market Collapse: America's Abandoned Cities / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Mike_Shedlock
Flint Michigan typifies the plight of inner city urban decay. Inquiring minds are wondering what if anything can be done. MLive explores that issue in an article discussing what to do with abandoned neighborhoods in Flint . Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, March 22, 2009
U.S. House Prices Could Drop Another 20%, Housing Market Crisis Solutions / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: John_Mauldin
- Solving the Housing Crisis
- Housing Could Drop Another 20% in Pricing
- Buy A Home, Get a Green Card
- A Real Stimulus Package
This last Tuesday the Wall Street Journal published an op-ed by my friend Gary Shilling and Richard LeFrak. They offer a simple solution for the housing crisis: give foreigners who will come to the US and buy a home resident status (green cards). This is a very important proposal and one that deserves national attention and action.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, March 17, 2009
Pretcher Presents Analysis to the Government on the U.S. Housing Market Crash- Video / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: EWI
I want to share with you a FREE 30-minute video that might just change the way you think about government's response to the unfolding financial crisis. Please learn more below or get access to the video now . Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, March 12, 2009
Sedona House Prices, Timothy Geithner, and Toxic Assets / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Kevin_Geary
I was shocked to see the latest issue of the local Sedona newspaper today. I decided to glance at the classified section of houses for sale, and the prices have fallen so much since I last paid any attention to it that I found it difficult to believe. For instance, there's a 2,400 sq.ft. home with 3 bds, 2 bths, with views, on a 1/4 acre, with a pool and a hot tub, here, in the Village of Oak Creek, near where I live, and it's offered for sale at only $339,000! Back in 2003, we sold our house for $275,000 and our house was only 1,820 sq.ft. and has no pool or hot tub! If that $339,000 price was to be translated into the value of our house, I think our house would now be worth less than what the current owners paid nearly 5 1/2 years ago, at the very beginning of the boom here (Nov. 2003). There are other houses with incredibly low prices as well, but the 2,400 sq.ft. one really stood out to me!Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, March 06, 2009
Obama's Mortgage Plan Fails to Address Housing Market Crisis / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Money_and_Markets
This week, the Obama administration released the details of how its expanded refinance and mortgage modification programs will work. I've combed through the details. And the view I shared with you two weeks ago in my Money and Markets column remains the same: There's some good, some bad — and one glaring flaw … Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, February 21, 2009
Commercial Real Estate Closing Shop? / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: David_Haas
As most of us who carefully follow the macro-economic picture know quite well - there is a certain logical “order” to things and that order has been accurately anticipated by some of us for a very long time. One of the things that's been looming dark-and-large on the economic horizon is the impending and apparently unstoppable hurricane that's about to hit the commercial real estate markets. Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, February 20, 2009
Obama's U.S. Housing Market Mortgage Bailout Plan Analysis / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Money_and_Markets
Mike Larson writes: Hardly a day goes by without another government bailout plan, and this week was no different. In Arizona on Wednesday, President Obama rolled out a plan designed to reduce foreclosures.
The multipronged plan has several moving parts. Since it could have an impact on both your personal finances — and your investing strategy — I want to give you some straight talk on it right here in Money and Markets .
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, February 15, 2009
Are We Nearing a Housing Bear Market Bottom? / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Money_Morning
Mike Caggeso writes: It's been a long, downslide for homeowners or anyone trying to buy a house.
But a Moody's Economy.com report, “Housing in Crisis: When Will Metro Markets Recover?”, says we could be nearing the end.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, February 10, 2009
The Reality Behind U.S. Housing Market Crash / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Michael_Pento
Much has been written lately about the beginnings of a recovery in the real estate market. Just last week housing bugs (investment “bugs” are not exclusive to those who only love gold) were cheering the latest data point which they claimed as evidence the market is making a comeback.
The Pending home sales index rose 6.3%, to 87.7 from 82.5 in November. That figure was also 2.1% higher than that of December 2007 when it registered 85.9. Helping to drive the increase in pending home sales are three major factors: lower home prices, lower new home construction rates and lower mortgage rates.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, February 01, 2009
Soaring Unemployment Means No U.S. Housing Market Bottom / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Mike_Shedlock
California Association of Realtors C.A.R. Data The following chart is from my friend "TC" who has been monitoring California Association of Realtors (C.A.R.) and DQNews data. C.A.R. data contains resale single family residences and new homes. DQNews data contains resale single family residences and new homes.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, January 21, 2009
The True Scope of the U.S. Housing Market Bust / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Chip_Hanlon
Below is the transcript of an interview I conducted just a few weeks ago with Fannie Mae's first Chief Credit Officer, Edward Pinto. In our conversation, Ed painted a very clear picture as to why government policies were key in blowing up the housing bubble. In the time since our last discussion, he testified in front of Congress about the true scope of the problems which face us. Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, January 16, 2009
U.S. Housing Market Panic of 2009, Buying Opportunity of a Lifetime? / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Q1_Publishing
“Sir, there are no seats left. You're going to have to stand in the back.”
I was only 10 minutes late, but the conference hall was packed. Every seat was taken. The walls were lined with people.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, January 08, 2009
Nouriel Roubini 2009 U.S. GDP Forecasting 40% Home Mortgage Failures? / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Andrew_Butter
IF Nouriel Roubini's 2009 GDP forecast for USA is right, THEN could 40% of home mortgages fail? It's been a long time since I saw two guys so eager to lose their jobs, Hank Paulson and George Bush could hardly be held back, they were positively skipping out of the door; I wonder why? Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, December 26, 2008
U.S. Housing Market Forecast 2009 / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Money_and_Markets
Mark Larson writes: I don't know about you, but I had a great time watching my little girls open their presents on Christmas morning. You should have seen the smiles on their faces! I sincerely hope that you and your family are relaxing and enjoying this holiday season as much as I am.
But soon, thoughts are going to turn from relaxation to reality. Investors are going to focus once again on the wounded real estate market. And millions of homeowners and commercial property owners are going to ask that all-important question: Will 2009 be “it” — the year when things finally start turning around?
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, December 09, 2008
The High Cost of Washington's Housing Market Price Manipulation Policy / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Ayn_Rand
Want to eliminate the glut of homes? Don't give the government more power--open the borders to immigration.
For decades Washington has been manipulating prices to encourage homeownership and "steer" the economy. To "incentivize" you to buy a house, it made mortgage payments tax deductible, largely exempted homes from capital gains taxes, and created Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. After the stock market tumbled in 2001 and 2002, Washington established a policy of artificially low interest rates that created the illusion of cheap credit; leery of the stock market, and looking for someplace else to put all this easy money, Americans began buying homes in droves.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, December 07, 2008
U.S. House Prices Case Shiller CPI Analysis / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Mike_Shedlock
This post is an update on the Case-Shiller-CPI (CS-CPI). The chart is courtesy of my friend "TC" and a brief explanation is that the Case-Chiller housing index is substituted for Owners' Equivalent Rent in the CPI. The results are compared to the BLS Government Published CPI (CPI-U called OER-CPI in the following chart).
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, December 05, 2008
U.S. Housing Market Crash- How Far To The Bottom? / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Mike_Shedlock
Inquiring minds have been asking for another housing update. My previous update was was on February 15,2008 in Housing Bottom Nowhere in Sight . I did not remember Bernanke's comments at the time but looking back now they sure seem funny. Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, November 23, 2008
U.S. Housing Market Forecast 2009, More Pain No Gain / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Money_Morning
Don Miller writes: The U.S. housing market is already being pounded by the “perfect storm.” And the outlook for the New Year is for the stormy weather to continue – and probably to get worse.
As if a locked-up credit market and tidal waves of foreclosures weren't already enough, we're now watching unemployment climb and consumer confidence plunge.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, November 14, 2008
New Precedent for America : Financial Irresponsibility Pays / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Mike_Stathis
As a desperate attempt to stop the bleeding, banks are stepping up with further efforts to protect delinquent homeowners. To date, this represents the most radical effort to stop the avalanche of foreclosures. It's thought these ridiculous bailouts will help restore the housing market which will provide more stability to the economy. The problem is that these plans are still insufficient to make any impact. And there is nothing to absorb the massive inventory of housing.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, November 07, 2008
Capital Economics UK Housing Market Forecasts / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
What is the value of typically the same housing bear market / crash forecast that is rolled out every few months? This article takes a look back at Capital Economics that has been grabbing the headlines of late of having forecast the UK housing market crash of 2008. However if you dig a little deeper the actual accuracy of Capital Economics housing market forecasts evaporates into thin air.
Tuesday, November 04, 2008
The Great American Housing Market Nightmare Next Phase / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Money_and_Markets
Martin Weiss writes: One of the greatest blunders of our time is made by those who blindly assume home prices are so low they couldn't possibly go any lower.
In reality, home prices don't stop going down at some particular level that appears to be “cheap.” Nor do they stop falling because they match some historical price that was previously a low.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, October 29, 2008
U.S. Housing Bust Continues on October Case Shiller Data / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Mike_Shedlock
Inquiring minds are considering the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Release for October 2008.
New York, October 28, 2008 – Data through August 2008, released today by Standard & Poor's for its S&P/Case-Shiller1 Home Price Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices, shows continued broad based declines in the prices of existing single family homes across the United States, a trend that prevailed throughout the first half of 2008 and has continued into the second half.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, October 23, 2008
U.S. Housing Market Boom and Crash Engineered by the Government / Politics / US Housing
By: Richard_C_Cook
They Did It On Purpose: The Housing Bubble and Its Crash Were Engineered from the Highest Levels of the U.S. Government, the Federal Reserve, and the Financial Industry
During the Clinton administration, the government required the financial industry to start expanding the frequency of mortgage loans to consumers who might not have qualified in the past.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, October 09, 2008
When will the U.S. Housing Market Bottom? / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Hans_Wagner
Now that the US has signed the rescue bill, investors are analyzing ways they can use the bill to help them beat the market. The collapse of housing prices in the United States led directly to the problems with the mortgage securities that are freezing credit markets. Some investors might think that the bottom in the current recession is near and the markets will recover soon. Others are not so sure. In this case, it pays to look at the past to see if you can learn from prior experiences and the trends in the housing market. Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, October 07, 2008
Fixing the U.S. Housing Market and House Prices / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Andrew_Butter
At this rate they won't bottom 'till 2010 and there is 15% to go. I think I need to get my hearing checked, but I thought I heard "Hank" say that his bailout plan won't start to work until house prices recover. Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, October 05, 2008
France To Buy 30,000 Homes, How Many Will the U.S. Own? / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Mike_Shedlock
Morningstar is reporting, France To Buy 30,000 Planned Homes To Boost Building Business .
President Nicolas Sarkozy, grappling with the global financial crisis, has decided to directly support the French construction industry by buying 30,000 homes waiting to be built, the presidential palace said Wednesday.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, September 26, 2008
Horrid US Economic Data on Housing Market, Jobs and Durable Goods / Economics / US Housing
By: Mike_Shedlock
Inquiring minds are looking at weekly unemployment claims . In the week ending Sept. 20, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 493,000, an increase of 32,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 461,000. It is estimated that the effects of Hurricane Gustav in Louisiana and the effects of Hurricane Ike in Texas added approximately 50,000 claims to the total. The 4-week moving average was 462,500, an increase of 16,000 from the previous week's revised average of 446,500. The spin above blames hurricanes. I do not buy it, at least to the extent claimed. The fact of the matter is this economy is rapidly falling apart.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, September 25, 2008
Bush's Housing Market Rescue Plan Full of Dry Rot / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Adrian_Ash
"The reality of the situation is that an open, competitive, and liberalized financial market can effectively allocate scarce resources in a manner that promotes stability and prosperity far better than governmental intervention..." – Hank Paulson, speaking at the China-US Strategic Dialogue in Shanghai, 3/7/2007
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, September 13, 2008
Value of Housing Markets in USA and UK Past, Present, and Future / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Andrew_Butter
The nationalization of Fannie and Freddie signaled that the valuations of assets used to secure loans to which these companies were exposed, were suspect.
"Legally" Fannie and Freddie were solvent. But no one believed the valuations, first the market didn't, and finally, neither did the regulators. This was an extraordinary admission of failure of the system of valuation, past and present.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, September 13, 2008
US Housing Bear Market Nowhere Near a Bottom / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: John_Mauldin
- The Headwinds to Growing Your Wealth
- The Wealth of Nations
- Housing: Are We at the Bottom?
- Alt-A is the New Subprime
- 3.5 Million Unemployed and Counting
This week we look at the housing market in some detail. When can we expect it to turn around? Part of the problem is that a new wave of foreclosures is coming due, and this time it is not subprime. And that means more problems for the large financial companies. Also, as predicted here, consumer spending is taking a hit as consumers are finding it increasingly difficult to get credit and a deteriorating labor market is dragging down total spending. There are some very interesting details in the data that was released this week. And we take a quick peek at the outlook for inflation. What is in the pipeline, so to speak? It should make for an interesting letter.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, September 12, 2008
U.S. Foreclosures Shock Wave Ripples Through Housing Market / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Peter_Schiff
Bloomberg is reporting U.S. Foreclosures Hit Record in August as Housing Prices Fell .U.S. foreclosure filings rose to a record in August as falling home prices made it harder to sell or refinance homes to pay off the mortgage, RealtyTrac Inc. said.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, September 05, 2008
UK Housing Market Crash Now at Minus 12.8% For August / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The Halifax's latest house price data shows that the housing market crash continued to accelerate into August, plunging by 1.7% that saw another £3000 wiped off house prices following the £3,300 write off for July to stand at down 12.8% on the year to August (on a non seasonally adjusted basis). UK house prices have now fallen by more than 8% since April. If a fall of 8% in 4 months cannot be considered a crash in UK house prices than I do not know what can. No wonder Chancellor Darling virtually threw in the towel during the weekend in his famous "I give up, please let me spend more time with my family" speech.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, September 02, 2008
Chancellor Darling's Panic Move on Stamp Duty Freeze to Rescue Housing Market / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Mike_Shedlock
The Telegraph is reporting Chancellor raises stamp duty threshold to £175,000 . Buyers of homes worth up to £175,000 will not have to pay stamp duty, Alistair Darling has announced, as he promised the country would "get through" the economic downturn.
In a surprise move to try to revive the housing market, the embattled Chancellor said that the £125,000 threshold at which buyers pay 1 per cent stamp duty will be raised from tomorrow and frozen at the new level for one year.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, September 01, 2008
When Will Southern California House Prices Bottom? / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Mike_Shedlock
Inquiring minds are wondering about California home prices. My friend "BC" pinged me recently with the following thoughts: Were the Kuznets Cycle to confirm to past patterns, real median CA house prices will not again return to the '04-'06 levels for another 15-20 yrs., if then given the longer-term demographic profile, normalized lending standards, and likely slower real GDP growth trend (2% vs. 3-3.5%).
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, August 31, 2008
Fed Rate Cuts Fail to Halt US House Price Crash / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Prieur_du_Plessis
Feldstein says low Fed rates may not stimulate growth
“Harvard University economist Martin Feldstein, a member of the committee that charts American business cycles, said the Federal Reserve cannot count on low interest rates to buoy economic growth.
“‘Lower interest rates are not going to get us anything more,' said Feldstein, who retired in June as president of the National Bureau of Economic Research. ‘The economy has really shown one sign after another of weakening.'”
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, August 29, 2008
US Real Estate Another Bottom in Sight? / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Peter_Schiff
Once again, real estate market watchers have pounced on a shred of seemingly positive news to proclaim that the long sought “bottom” is in sight. The routine is becoming extremely stale, but somehow the media never seems to tire of it. This time the “good” news was that the percentage declines in national home prices (according to Case Shiller) in July where not as large as they were in June. Although the report contained many other negative data points, including increased inventories and a spike in foreclosure sales, it was the slowing declines that got spotlight. Talk about grasping at straws. Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, August 14, 2008
The US Housing Market Mess the Experts Missed / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Mike_Stathis
The latest data on housing continues to worsen on most fronts.In fact, the data is now showing strong indications of bold predictions I mad in 2006 and as recently as May 2008 – the prime mortgages would be next. For those of you who did not read my May 13, 2008 article, “NAR's Yun Continues to Mislead on Housing” I have reprinted it below. Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, August 12, 2008
American Housing Rescue and Foreclosure Prevention Act / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Dr_Ron_Paul
Recently Congress passed the American Housing Rescue and Foreclosure Prevention Act., also known as the Housing Bill. Its passage was lauded by many who are legitimately concerned about foreclosures and the housing market in our country's economy. I was asked how I could vote against a bill to help American homeowners, but I found this bill to have more to do with helping big banks than helping average Americans.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, August 08, 2008
The Day That Alt-A Mortgages Died / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Mike_Shedlock
Bloomberg is reporting Fannie Mae, Battling Losses, to End Alt-A Mortgages . Fannie Mae, the largest U.S. mortgage- finance company, will stop buying or guaranteeing Alt-A home loans, such as those that require little or no documentation of borrower incomes or assets, by yearend.
The company announced the changes when reporting its fourth straight quarterly loss today. The second-quarter net loss of $2.3 billion, or $2.54 a share, included $5.3 billion in credit- related expenses.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, August 03, 2008
US Housing Market Crunching Banks, Earnings and Economy / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Prieur_du_Plessis
Housing, credit and labor … oh my! -“Recent data releases and reports suggest that the consumer will continue to be pressured on all fronts: income (or cash flow), wealth and credit. Consumers can spend using any of these buckets. However, with the labor market continuing to weaken, housing continuing to deteriorate and credit harder to come by, the outlook for spending remains bleak despite recent declines in gasoline prices. Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, July 30, 2008
US House Prices Suffer Record Falls In Case-Shiller Home Index / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Mike_Shedlock
The May S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices are now out. New York, July 29, 2008 – Data through May 2008, released today by Standard & Poor's for its S&P/Case-Shiller1 Home Price Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices, show annual declines in the prices of existing single family homes across the United States generally continued to worsen in May 2008. Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, July 29, 2008
Paulson's Covered Bond Proposal to Rescue US Housing Market / Interest-Rates / US Housing
By: Mike_Shedlock
Many people are asking about Treasury Secretary Paulson's Covered Bond Plan .Bank of America Corp., Citigroup Inc., JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Wells Fargo & Co. threw their support behind Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson's effort to spur covered bonds as a new source of mortgage financing.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, July 18, 2008
Federal Housing Administration Mortgage Market Ticking Time Bomb / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Money_Morning
Shah Gilani writes: The fundamentals of economic strife based on the disastrous collapse of the U.S. housing market will not get better any time soon. In fact, what's being pushed through both houses of Congress, even as you read this, is so dangerous that it should be immediately abandoned and revealed for what it is - a ticking time bomb labeled with the initials FHA. Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, July 14, 2008
Fannie & Freddie Bailout: Truth or Consequences / Companies / US Housing
By: Mike_Stathis
Amidst speculation that Freddie and its big brother Fannie are facing insolvency, U.S. Treasury Secretary Paulson said the primary focus was supporting Fannie and Freddie "in their current form as they carry out their important mission." Well, the fact of the matter is that “carrying out their mission” is what got them into this mess to begin with. Paulson delivered the subtle message that has been interpreted by most that he won't bail the GSEs out. But if the GSEs aren't able to raise sufficient capital, it's going to initiate a printing frenzy by Bernanke, with or without a conservatorship. Before we consider exactly what Paulson's statement means, have a look at the following excerpts I put into print in 2006. Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, July 09, 2008
Finally the Truth on the US Housing Bear Market / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Mike_Stathis
You've all probably seen or heard about the recently released Harvard Housing study. Among other things, the report discusses the fact that the median wage-earner is unable to afford the median priced home and forecasts a drop in real estate prices to the 1999 level. The fact is that the study comes about one year too late for investors and consumers. Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, June 29, 2008
US House Prices Forecast 2008-2010 / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
US House prices continued to plunge for April 08 data, reaching an extreme low reading of down 16.3% on a year earlier as measured by the S&P/ Case-Shiller Composite-10 and down more than 19% from the mid 2006 peak. The rate of decline is the worst since the Great Depression and signals further distress in the real estate linked credit markets and therefore a continuing drag on the US economy in the face of the continuing deleveraging of the mortgage backed derivatives markets. Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, June 28, 2008
Californian Housing Market in Meltdown, Liar Loan Writedowns Have Barely Begun / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Mike_Shedlock
My
friend "TC" monitors C.A.R. data, DQNews data, and Case-Shiller Data. Case-Shiller data was out a few days ago and you can read about it in Case Shiller Futures Suggest 2010 Housing Bottom . What follows is an analysis of data from the California Association of Realtors from "TC" who tracks the data month by month and is looking at things from perspective of percent declines from the peak.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, June 26, 2008
US New Homes Taking Longer Sell / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Paul_L_Kasriel
I hope the Census Bureau can count the number of people in the U.S. better than it can count the number of new homes sold. The first estimate of a given month's sales is notoriously off. So, we should take the first estimate of May sales and inventories of new homes with a grain of salt. Be that as it may, May new home sales retreated 2.5% to an annualized pace of 512 thousand units. The low sales rate for this cycle to date is 501 thousand established in March. The sales region that really put a dent in the total was the wild West, where sales declined 11.63% to a cycle low annual rate.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, June 25, 2008
Case-Shiller House Price Index Declines - Light at the End of the Tunnel? / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Paul_L_Kasriel
The Case-Shiller Composite 20 house price index dropped at an annual rate of 18.5% seasonally adjusted (by me) in April compared with March. This was a relatively sharp slowdown in the rate of descent as the March month-to-month annualized decline was 24.2%. On a year-over-year basis, this house price index descended at its fastest rate to date, 15.3% vs. 14.3% in March (see Chart). If, in fact, the slowdown in the rate of price decreases on a month-to-month basis is signal, not noise, then perhaps we are nearing an inflection point in house prices.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, June 25, 2008
Case Shiller Futures Suggest 2010 US Housing Market Bottom / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Mike_Shedlock
The April S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices are now out. The index shows show annual declines in the prices of existing single family homes across the United States continued to worsen in April 2008, with all 20 MSAs now posting annual declines, 13 of which are posting record low annual declines, and 10 of which are in double-digits.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, June 22, 2008
Housing Market Depression Without an Economic Depression / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Michael_Pollaro
They” said it couldn't happen, but it has. Home prices are falling at rates not seen since the Great Depression. From peak to March 2008:
• New Home Median Prices -13%
• Existing Home Median Prices -13%
• Case Shiller US National Index -16%
Saturday, June 14, 2008
US House Prices Collapsing, Home Owners Equity Plunging / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Paul_L_Kasriel
House prices are collapsing, which means that homeowners' equity in their houses is plunging. According to Federal Reserve flow-of-funds data, homeowners' equity dropped by $399 billion quarter-to-quarter in Q1:2008 and $880 billion year-over-year - both record absolute declines (see Chart 1). The drop in homeowners' equity contributed significantly to the $1.7 trillion decline in household net worth in the first quarter (see Chart 2). Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, June 08, 2008
Greenspan Interest Rate Conundrum In Reverse / Interest-Rates / US Housing
By: Mike_Shedlock
There was an interesting chart in the New York Times article Shrinking Lines of Credit . The fact that home lines of credit are shrinking is not really news, nor is the fact that mortgage rates are stubbornly high. I have talked about both of those on many occasions.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, June 03, 2008
Bernanke Blames Global Saving Glut For Housing Bubble Instead of the Fed / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Mike_Shedlock
In yet another long winded and self serving speech, Bernanke blames everyone but the Fed for the housing and credit bubbles. Not once did he mention interest rate policy at the Fed. However, he did blame foreign investors and "the global savings" glut for contributing to the problem. Given there were no highlights, let's tune into the lowlights from Bernanke's Remarks on the economic outlook at the International Monetary Conference, Barcelona, Spain.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, June 03, 2008
Zero Overhead Real Estate Investing- Right Now / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Steve_Selengut
Real estate investing is not nearly as complicated, financially burdensome, or time consuming as you might think. In fact, Its easy to add raw land, shopping centers, apartment complexes, and private homes to your portfolio without brokers, bankers, attorneys, and handymen on your payroll. Even better, the zero overhead approach allows you to blend your real estate investments into your securities portfolio for ease of management, income monitoring, diversification, and analysis.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, June 03, 2008
US Housing Industry- A Monument to Futility / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: John_Mauldin
Regular readers of Outside the Box will be familiar with Michael Lewitt's thoughtful commentary. Today, he reminds us that much of the turmoil we are in could have been avoided with proper regulatory structures and then does a very poignant analysis of various sectors of the economy. I agree with him that we have not seen the worst and that we will continue to see this mild recession/slow recovery for longer than we should without true structural reform. Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, May 30, 2008
"Liar Loans" Live Up To Expectations / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Sara_Klein
Investors who purchased soured mortgages securities are forcing lenders to repurchase the original loans based on a provision that required lenders to take back loans that defaulted unusually fast if mistakes were made or fraud was committed during the underwriting process.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, May 23, 2008
US House Prices Suffer Record Worst Quarterly Fall / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Jennifer_Yousfi
U.S. home prices suffered their worst decline on record, skidding 1.7% in the first quarter, the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight (OFHEO) announced yesterday (Thursday).
That drop-off from the fourth quarter to the first quarter in the OFHEO's "purchase-only index" exceeded the 1.4% decline between the third and fourth quarters of last year, and was the biggest decrease in the 17-year history of the index. On a year-over-year basis, home prices have fallen 3.1% since the first quarter of 2007.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, May 19, 2008
FDIC: Fights US Housing Market Deflation with Inflation / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Adrian_Ash
"...Apparent defender of US cash savers since the Great Depression, the FDIC wants to see $50bn pumped into the very worst mortgages issued in 2004-2007..."
AS THE U.S. and British housing bubbles continue to deflate, leaking stale gas like an air-bed blown up when you're drunk, just how much trouble will come from government schemes aimed at saving over-geared debtors and over-lent lenders?
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, May 15, 2008
Fannie Mae Advertising Foreclosed US Homes to the Brit's / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Adrian_Ash
"...'Find a holiday home in America ,' shouts Fannie Mae across the Pond..."
YOU CAN'T BLAME Fannie Mae for trying. Last year saw British property buyers snap up around 20,000 homes in the United States .
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, May 13, 2008
US Government Responsible for the Housing Boom and Bust / Politics / US Housing
By: Dr_Ron_Paul
The House passed two bills attempting to rehabilitate the housing and mortgage market this week. There doesn't seem to be any shortage of criticism and blame for the bad decisions, and rightly so. Lenders and banks do share much of the blame for the overheated market. Lending standards were relaxed, or even abandoned altogether, creating an exaggerated pool of homebuyers that led to ballooning home prices that many, especially real estate investors, expected to continue forever. Now that the bubble has burst, the losses are staggering.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, May 12, 2008
US Housing Dueling Views: Jim Rogers Sees More Pain, Warren Buffet Sees Rebound Under Way / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Keith_Fitz-Gerald
When asked about their outlook for the crisis-ridden U.S. housing and financial-services markets, two U.S. financial experts provided outlooks that completely contradicted one another - once again underscoring how tough it is for investors to predict when the U.S. economy will turn around. Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, May 10, 2008
Real Estate and Credit Deflation: The Next Dozen Shoes to Drop / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Steve_Moyer
"If the shoe fits, it's too expensive." ~ Adrienne Gusoff I was offered a very nice position with Fisher Investments of Woodside, California last year and, although I passed on the opportunity, I truly respect their money management track record. At the same time, I have noticed from their website that they are comparing the current equity market with the set-up which existed in 1992; they see this as a brief cyclical downturn prior to a multi-year bull market run rather than an unfolding, post-triple-bubble economic downward spiral. In fact, as I look through the site's archives, the Fisher research team (60 strong, and plenty bright) doesn't address post-bubble possibilities in any way, shape or form.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, May 09, 2008
Pending US Home Sales Hit Record Low, Again / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Sara_Klein
Pending home sales hit a record low for the second consecutive month in March. March's reading was down 20.1% year-over-year and 35% from the index's peak in April 2005. With the recent resilience in homebuilder stocks, powered by those who must believe that the housing market is bottoming, these numbers should be a disappointment. In my universe of understanding, a bottom should be followed by some sort of uptick, not continuing declines.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, May 08, 2008
Fannie Mae Cumulative Defaults and other Mortgage Market Disasters / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Mike_Shedlock
Inquiring minds are checking out the Fannie Mae 2008 Q1 10-Q Investor Summary . There are plenty of charts, graphs and other data to consider. For example, please consider this graph on page 27.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, May 07, 2008
WaMu's Suspect Mortgage Pool- Fallout from Liar Loans Continues / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Mike_Shedlock
I have been tracking a particular Washington Mutual (WM) Alt-A mortgage pool for several months. The pool is known as WMALT 2007-0C1. Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, May 05, 2008
Rebuttal To SmartMoney US Housing Market Bottom Call / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Mike_Shedlock
Donald Luskin at SmartMoney is making a case that Housing Prices Near or at Bottom I'm not here to tell you that home prices are at absolute bottom this very moment. But I can argue pretty persuasively that they might be. Or that they are close.
What establishes value in a home price? Like anything else, it's a question of historical norms. So how do we determine the norms? Try this way on for size.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, April 30, 2008
$536 Billion Worth of Household Assets Evaporated in February? / Economics / US Housing
By: Paul_L_Kasriel
It sure is a good thing that $150 billion of checks from the IRS are in the mail to U.S. households because these same households experienced an evaporation in paper wealth in February to the tune of about $544 billion according to my admittedly back-of-the-envelope arithmetic. It was reported today that the Case-Shiller house price index for 20 major metropolitan areas fell 2.66% month-to-month in February. Applying that percentage decline in house prices to the fourthquarter value of $20,154.7 billion for household residential real estate from the Fed’s flow-offunds data yields a decline of $536 billion. Now, this is a very rough approximation for at least two reasons.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, April 07, 2008
US Housing Bust and the American Dream / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Mark_B_Rasmussen
Home ownership has long been considered “The AMERICAN DREAM” and with the recent paradigms of the “WEALTH AFFECT” and the “OWNERSHIP SOCIATY”……..(Really fraud and myths I have written about earlier on this site)…..See “Debunked Myths of 2007”.
It is estimated that 8 - 10 Million Americans owe more than their home is worth today, as the rate of housing price decline accelerates and the economy slows…(actually early recession).
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, March 30, 2008
US Housing Market Bottoming? / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: John_Mauldin
- Housing - Finding the Elusive Bottom
- Where is the Value in Housing?
- Bottom Line? There is no Bottom in Sight
- The Real ARMs Race
Existing home sales rose by 2.9% in February, the first significant rise in home sales since the housing market started to decline last year. I was in my car and listening to CNBC as commentators started to celebrate the bottom of the housing market. Since the credit crisis has its roots in the US housing market, and will require a resolution of the housing market in order for credit markets to return to whatever will look like normalcy in the future, it is of more than passing interest to get a handle on the actual state of the housing market.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, March 07, 2008
US Mortgage and Housing Markets at Very Important Crossroads / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Money_and_Markets
Mike Larson writes: The most amazing thing about the housing and mortgage market crunch is that it has unfolded in the context of a decent employment backdrop and a growing economy.
Home sales collapsed ... inventories ballooned ... prices started dropping ... and mortgage delinquency rates and foreclosures exploded.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, February 24, 2008
Proposal for a Depreciating US Housing Market Environment / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Wall_Street_Weather
Being “upside down” is the term for when a borrower owes more on a car than the car is worth. Cars have always been a depreciating asset, but real estate has not been viewed in the same way. That is about to change.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, February 15, 2008
What the Government Should Do About the US Housing Bust / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Money_and_Markets
Mike Larson writes: I told you it was coming. And there it was yesterday — summarized perfectly in the second headline of the Wall Street Journal's website: “Worried Bankers Seek to Shift Risk to Uncle Sam.”
The gist of the story?
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, February 14, 2008
Sell Your Real Estate Immediately! - Asset Price Deflation Crash! / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Steve_Moyer
"I always felt very secure and very safe with real estate. Real estate always appreciates." ~ Ivana Trump
Before we begin our next hair-raiser, I notice a lot of people scratching their heads as global stock markets decline in the face of a "strong global economy." What you are seeing is the "pricing in" of approximately $2 trillion of lost homeowner equity in the U.S. (soon to be $3 trillion, then $4 trillion and so on). And it's only a matter of time before that equity squeeze wreaks havoc across the economic board and takes down the stock market and commodities, too. Picture a five year old trying to beat back an elephant with a Wiffle bat -- eventually that will be the metaphor for a declining global economy trying to chase from the living room the growing, immovable force that is asset deflation.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, February 12, 2008
US Housing Indexes Bounce From Key Support, Bottom of the Housing Bust? / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Donald_W_Dony
After 30 months of plunging lower, several leading indicators of the U.S housing sector have finally found a narrow ledge to support their falling prices. Now the most important question is; can these past support levels be broad enough to hold the frail U.S. housing market indexes or is this just a short-term stop on the way down? Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, February 06, 2008
US Housing Bust Heading for the Perfect Storm / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Mark_B_Rasmussen
The following data on the Housing Depression in the City of Reno illustrates that the Peak was 30 – 31 months ago. The historical peak to trough real estate value is 46 months. Then again, the recent past has exceeded anything in history by several orders of magnitude.
For washoe county, there were 69 bank flreclosures for the entire year 2006, 100 for december 2007 and 204 for january 2008.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, February 04, 2008
US Interest Rate Cuts Will Not Help Falling House Prices / Interest-Rates / US Housing
By: Money_and_Markets
Mike Larson writes: The Federal Reserve stepped up this week and gave Wall Street what it wanted — another half-percentage point cut in interest rates. That brings the federal funds rate down to 3%, the lowest level since the middle of 2005.
Today I want to take a closer look at the Fed's action, to find out what it will — and won't — do. Let's start with ...
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, January 31, 2008
US Homebuilders Stocks Bullish Pattern Developing / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Mike_Paulenoff
Let's have a look at the near term pattern development in the XHB (Homebuilders ETF), which is being led by components PHM, HOV, DRI, HD, KBH... all of which have very dynamic chart formation after an entire year (or more) of relentless weakness.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, January 28, 2008
US Homebuilders (XHB) ETF Rally Set to Resume / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Mike_Paulenoff
Let's take a look at the developing pattern in the Homebuilders ETF (AMEX: XHB), as some of its components, like PHM, DHI, NVR, RYL, HD exhibit charts with meaningful upside technical potential.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, January 07, 2008
US Real Estate's Deflationary Collapse: Beware the Falling Knife! / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Steve_Moyer
"Dear Steve,
I want to thank you for your takes on the economy and for telling me what was going to happen. It got me started listening and reading and that has made a big difference in what I invested in. While a lot of people are in shock about what is happening, I see it unfolding just as you said and I have been careful about my investments. Not only that, it's happening pretty much as you said it would.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, January 07, 2008
US Housing Market Forecast 2008 / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Dr_Housing_Bubble
Firstly, Dr. Housing Bubble 1 Million Visitors! 200th Housing Post. If you were to ask me in September of 2006 if I would still be blogging, the answer would have been no. From multiple estimates, there are approximately 50 million to 70 million blogs out there. It seems like there is a bubble in blogs! Many blogs do not survive past a few months because it does take commitment and a solid readership.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, January 03, 2008
Fed Won't Save the US Housing Market 2008 / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Michael_Pento
Investors are anticipating that the Fed will continue its easy money policy into 2008, which is expected to relieve credit markets. As a result, the 10-year Treasury note yield has fallen to 4.02% from a high of 5.25% reached in the summer of last year. And as evidence that the fear among banks is easing, LIBOR spreads have narrowed-- although it is still well above the historical average as well as the lows seen in July of 2007. Many now believe that the Fed, in conjunction with foreign central banks, will rescue the consumer and allow the U.S. to avoid a recession.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, December 27, 2007
Falling US Home Prices and Frozen Interest Rates / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Peter_Schiff
The Bush administration's mortgage rescue plan will worsen, not alleviate, the problems in the housing market.
We are suffering from a home value crisis, not simply a credit crisis. If home prices were still rising, defaults would be low, investment returns would be high, borrowers would still be cashing out equity, and lenders would be showering credit on home buyers.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, December 10, 2007
Homebuilders ETF Hurdles Above Resistance / Companies / US Housing
By: Mike_Paulenoff
During the past three sessions, the Homebuilding Sector ETF (AMEX: XHB) has broken and sustained above its 9, 20 and 50 DMA, and has hurdled its May-Dec resistance line. This is impressive action, and has inflicted meaningful damage to the heretofore dominant multi-month downtrend. On one hand, I should have established a new long position last Thurs or Fri, but on the other hand until I actually see the ability of the XHB to break key near-term resistance and sustain above those levels, I decided to take the prudent "show-me" approach. So far so good.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, December 10, 2007
Fed US Interest Rate Cut Tomorrow: Too Little, Too Late / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Money_and_Markets
Martin Weiss writes:When Dad and I gave our last seminar together, the median price of a new home in the U.S. was under $140,000.
To buy one, you had to put 20% down.
No one had heard of option mortgages, no-doc mortgages or companies like Countrywide Financial that created them.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, December 09, 2007
US Housing Subprime Mortgage Rescue Plan Specifications / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Money_and_Markets
Mike Larson writes: By now, you've probably heard of what I'm calling the "Paulson Plan" — a federal government proposal to ease the pain of the housing and mortgage market collapse. President Bush and Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson held press conferences to highlight the key points yesterday.
I'll be discussing it on CNN's "Open House" show this weekend [Editor's note: 9:30 A.M. Saturday on CNN and 3:30 P.M. EST Saturday and Sunday on CNN Headline News]. But first, I wanted to share my thoughts with you.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, December 07, 2007
Subprime Mortgage Bailout is the Mother of all Bad Ideas / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Peter_Schiff
Without question, the Bush administration's mortgage rescue plan will exacerbate, not alleviate, the problems in the housing market. As the plan will sharply reduce the ability of new buyers to make purchases, it really amounts to a stay of execution and not a pardon. Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, December 05, 2007
HOPE For the US Housing Subprime Mortgage Credit Crunch Victims / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Adrian_Ash
"...What a difference lies between .org and .com on a website address..."
HOPE NOW is a British-based charity, founded in 1985 to spread the good news of Jesus Christ, working primarily in the former Soviet state of Ukraine .
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, December 03, 2007
US Housing Slump 2008... DEEPER, DARKER, SCARIER! / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Dr_William_R_Swagell
The (spreading sub-prime) mortgage hole is worse than anyone saw. It is deeper, darker, scarier… (banks) are now looking at new reserves …my sense…is they don't have a clear picture of how this will play out …confidence is low.” ( Tony James, Blackstone Group.)Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, November 30, 2007
US Housing Market Crash Can't Find A Floor! / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Money_and_Markets
Mike Larson writes: Every month, I get asked if there's any evidence whatsoever of a turnaround in the housing industry. So far — every month — I've had to emphatically say "NO."
And I'm going to give it to you straight about the numbers that were just released: They are some of the worst I've ever seen.
Here's what happened for the month of October ...
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, November 18, 2007
Buyers Disappear From US Housing Market Fearing Further Falls in House Prices / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Tim_Iacono
Yesterday, DataQuick released the Southern California real estate sales data for the month of October. For the first time since probably the mid-1990s all six counties show year-over-year declines in the median price led by Riverside County at -15 percent. Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, November 16, 2007
UK Housing Market Continues to Weaken, Nationwide Now Expects Zero 2008 House Price Growth / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The housing market analysts are belatedly starting to come to terms with the prospects of a falling UK housing market during 2008. Nationwide takes the first step on that road by now forecasting ZERO house price growth during 2008. This still remains some way from the Market Oracles forecast of a fall of 15% over 2 years as of 22nd August 07 and therefore suggests continuing downward revisions in Nationwide's forecasts during 2008 in the face of falling house prices.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, November 12, 2007
US Housing Crash - History Repeating in Florida and Lessons from the Roaring 20's - Part 2 / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Dr_Housing_Bubble
Part 1 - “Perhaps the boom was due for a "healthy breathing-time…
As a matter of fact, it was due for a good deal more than that. It began obviously to collapse in the spring and summer of 1926. People who held binders and had failed to get rid of them were defaulting right and left on their payments. One man who had sold acreage early in 1925 for twelve dollars an acre, and had cursed himself for his stupidity when it was resold later in the year for seventeen dollars, and then thirty dollars, and finally sixty dollars an acre, was surprised a year or two afterward to find that the entire series of subsequent purchases was in default, that he could not recover the money still due him, and that his only redress was to take his land back again.
Saturday, November 10, 2007
US Housing Crash - History Repeating in Florida and Lessons from the Roaring 20's - Part 1 / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Dr_Housing_Bubble
History has a mysterious way of creeping up on those that fail to study it. Somehow, with all the talking heads going crazy, you would think this housing market has no parallel in history. When you hear that the national median home price has never gone down there is always the caveat of “since the Great Depression.” I've written 3 articles about the Great Depression ( letter from a lawyer , letter from a president of a bank , and 3 main reasons why this bubble is worse ) highlighting eerie similarities of this credit bubble to the Roaring 20s.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, October 27, 2007
Subprime Credit Crunch - The Market for New Homes is Dead / Stock-Markets / US Housing
By: John_Mauldin
In this Issue: As the Subprime Turns
"The Market for New Homes is Dead"
Mortgage Pig of the Year
When the Going Get Rough, Simply Borrow More
$100 Oil and $1,000 Gold
More Birthdays, Home Again and Deadlines
As the World Turns is a popular soap opera playing on American TV. It focuses, as do most soaps, on the lives and foibles of its characters, with plenty of dramatic flair. We are watching a different type of soap opera today which we could call "As the Subprime Turns. And the world is watching. It has plenty of drama, lots of flawed characters, a plot that is hard to understand, everyone saying it was the other guys fault and the world (literally) paying for the sins of exuberance in the US. Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, October 09, 2007
Wanted: Prime Suspect of Housing Market Murder / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: EWI
Helen Mirren accepted her Emmy award for best actress in the mini-series, "Prime Suspect" with elegance and grace. Just the opposite of the tough detective superintendent character she plays who tracks down murder suspects in England. Who would Jane Tennison pick out as the prime suspect for the murder of the U.S. housing market and the resulting gruesome credit crunch?Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, October 07, 2007
US Homebuilders in Desperation As Housing Bust Continues / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: David_Shvartsman
If you've been keeping an eye on the news in the U.S. at all these past few months, you know that the situation in housing has continued to deteriorate, despite the much too early bottom calling from industry spokespeople, vapid "economists", and the media's talking heads.We've reached the "bust" portion of this particular boom-bust cycle, and with each passing week there are new stories to fill in the picture of the real estate market's decline.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, September 28, 2007
US Housing Decline to Continue and Commodities Prices Headed Much Higher / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Emanuel_Balarie
This past weekend, I went into my local bookstore and saw Alan Greenspan's The Age of Turbulence prominently displayed in front of the store. When Alan Greenspan retired, just over a year ago, CNBC auctioned off a painting of the former head of the Federal Reserve, and financial pundits around the world were lauding his achievements. Unfortunately, as I read the news surrounding housing, our economy, inflation, and the dismal outlook for the US dollar, I cannot understand why most people view him as such a prominent economist.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, September 07, 2007
Feds Starts Bailing As US Housing Market Takes On More Water! / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Money_and_Markets
We're seeing two major developments on the housing and mortgage fronts, and I want to make sure you know about them — and what they mean.
So let's get right to it …
Development #1: Bailout Plans Are Set Into Motion
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, September 05, 2007
Housing Bust Lessons From the Great Depression: / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Dr_Housing_Bubble
A Letter from a former Banking President Discussing the Housing Bubble
With the incredible response we had to a personal letter from a lawyer discussing in great deal, the failures of the previous Great Depression bubble we can see many parallels emerge to our current potential future. For one, the wanton greed and disregard of financial prudence. The inability to see beyond the current market and realize that history has a mischievous way of sneaking up on those who forget her. There is no longer a debate regarding the once fabled housing bubble. We can all take off our tinfoil hats off and begin to construct a vision of the future in the midst of a collapsing housing market. Today I'll be posting an article that came out in the Saturday Evening Post in November of 1932 from a former bank president in New York, three years after the crash, highlighting the economic situation of a post bubble world. This is an old article so I retyped the important paragraphs:
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, September 04, 2007
US Housing Market Crash - School of Hard Work Or Habituated Hand-Outs? / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Brady_Willett
After signing the 'American Dream Downpayment Act of 2003' Bush added , "We want people to be fully aware of what it means to buy a home and what it takes". The contradiction, if otherwise unclear, was that the President was signing a law that gave free money to those who could not afford to buy a home, and then he planned to educate them about the hard work, savings, and planning that is required to buy a home.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, August 31, 2007
US Housing Bubble Crash - The Writing is on the Wall / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Peter_Schiff
This week, Larry Kudlow and others strongly chastised Bernanke for his failure to read the writing on the wall and urged the Fed Chairman to quickly slash the Fed Funds rate. Methinks the pundits doth protest too much. For years, Kudlow, who practically coined the term “Goldilocks economy,” has dismissed with scorn suggestions that the American economy was anything less than ragingly healthy. If our economy is really so strong, why does he call so loudly for the artificial stimulus of a significant rate cut?Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, August 31, 2007
Navigating Treacherous US Housing and Mortgage Markets / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Money_and_Markets
Mike Larson writes:I've written a lot about the housing and mortgage crises, and what they mean to your investments. But I'd wager that many of you are homeowners with mortgages, too.
Some of you may even be trying to buy or sell residential property right now. And if you're like me, you probably know of at least one or two folks having financial troubles because of the housing crisis.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, August 30, 2007
US Housing Market Crash - Subprime's New Song: The Worst Is Yet To Come / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Submissions
Susan C. Walker of Elliott Wave International writes: Remember that catchy love song that Frank Sinatra made popular in the 1960s, "The Best Is Yet To Come"?
"The best is yet to come and, babe, won't that be fine?
You think you've seen the sun, but you ain't seen it shine."
At the risk of mixing musical metaphors and styles, it looks more like the sun has deserted us right now in the financial markets, and we're about to see "The Dark Side of the Moon," the title of Pink Floyd's 1973 smash album. With the subprime mortgage problems reaching farther and farther out to touch hedge funds, U.S. and European banks, mortgage companies and money-market funds, what we're going to experience sounds more like "The Worst is Yet To Come."
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, August 24, 2007
There’s No Such Thing as a Free Bailout for the US Housing Market / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Paul_L_Kasriel
PIMCO's William Gross is now calling for a fiscal policy bailout for the U.S. housing market debacle rather than a monetary policy bailout (see “Where's Waldo? Where's W?”). On the surface, Gross's arguments seem to make sense – on the surface . Gross argues that even a cut in the federal funds rate of several hundred basis points might not lower reset rates on adjustable-rate mortgages enough to prevent the massive looming foreclosures. In addition, Gross argues that such an injection of Fed-created credit could be the catalyst for a run on the dollar, which, in turn, would probably prevent 15-year or 30-year fixed rate mortgage yields from falling enough, if at all, to prevent massive foreclosures.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, August 22, 2007
US Housing Market Collapse Not Correction! / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Ned_W_Schmidt
With U.S. mortgage defaults up 90+% from a year ago, collapse of U.S. mortgage market is being felt around the world. U.S. housing starts have fallen to a ten year low, and are headed lower. Financial infrastructure that fueled this speculative bubble is being dismantled. Rate is important, but so is means of funneling money to borrowers. Mortgage financing system begins with mortgage brokers at front end. Mortgages then travel through layers of investment bankers till ultimately residing in portfolios of gullible investors around the world.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, August 15, 2007
Wall Street and Main Street Are Joined at the Hip / Economics / US Housing
By: Paul_L_Kasriel
Watching Bubblevision and reading the Wall Street Journal (see August 7 edition, " Don't Panic About the Credit Market ," David Malpass), I keep hearing that what happens on Wall Street doesn't materially affect Main Street. I respectfully disagree. Main Street is more dependent on Wall Street than ever before.
Chart 1 shows the history of one simple definition of household surpluses and deficits. This definition subtracts the sum of Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) and Residential Investment Expenditures (RIE) from Disposable Personal Income (DPI). Both PCE and RIE are "line items" in the Gross Domestic Product accounts. RIE is essentially the value-added in the private residential real estate sector - new construction of homes, including remodeling of existing homes, and the value added by real estate brokers. DPI is equal to all income currently earned by households, including employer contributions to pension funds, interest on investments, dividends on corporate equities and rents on property less taxes paid by households.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, August 01, 2007
Putting Home Sellers on the Couch: The Psychology of why Sellers Refuse to Lower Prices / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Dr_Housing_Bubble
Driving to a meeting, I tuned into a show called House Calls on a local FM talk radio station. The show centers on real estate investing and taking calls (massively prescreened) from the public. Whenever I'm in the car on a Saturday morning driving with the gorgeous California sun, I usually tune into this station to see what the media and the public are saying about the housing market. I've listened to this show for a very long time. And I can tell you that last year they were cheerleading Southern California housing like you wouldn't believe. Any caller mentioning the word “bubble” was painted as a tinfoil hat wearing bubblelista. Fast forward one year to summer 2007 and they are giving the advice of investing out of state for cash flow properties. Sounds like the strategy I've been purporting since the beginning but why mince words, these are the experts.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, July 30, 2007
Rich Investor, Poor Investor / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: David_Morgan
One of the most widely read books on money and investing has to be Robert Kiyosaki's Rich Dad, Poor Dad, which is a unique economic perspective developed by Kiyosaki's exposure to two “dads,” his own highly educated father, and the multimillionaire eighth-grade dropout father of his closest friend.
Saturday, July 28, 2007
Why Did the Housing Phenomenon Spread? Three Key Reasons for a Social Epidemic: Housing Connectors; Mavens; and Salespeople / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Dr_Housing_Bubble
We can learn a lot from the social sciences especially in analyzing the current housing bubble. Many may see very little connection between housing and social science but behavioral economics and marketing have much to do and say regarding our current environment. This is particularly relevant in analyzing the current housing market because we are in a bubble; and by definition something in a bubble does not follow conventional rules.Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, July 21, 2007
More Evidence of Spillover from US Housing Market to Consumer Sector / Economics / US Housing
By: Paul_L_Kasriel
We have been forecasting that the housing recession would have a negative knock-on effect on discretionary consumer spending. Six successive months of declining light motor vehicle sales is corroborating evidence of this. If J. D. Power has got its numbers correct, July is on course to mark the seventh consecutive month in which car and truck sales decline.Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, July 21, 2007
Why the Housing Market Has Failed You. Five Major Failures of the US Housing Market / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Dr_Housing_Bubble
I'm sure many of you already read the article about The Real Estate Prayer Luncheon in Florida where a group of hopeful agents prayed that the housing slump will end. I actually think this is a great idea to resurrect the housing market. So in light of this, I am going to pray that my new book coming out called The Wealth via Failure Code will be a major success. I'm praying that all of you will buy it. Since we are living a surreal housing environment, I figure writing a book with Orwellian themes will tickle many of your fancies.
Monday, July 16, 2007
Mission Accomplished: 3 Housing Issues: Multiple Bottoms, Declining Dollar, and More Sub-prime and Alt-A Defaults / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Dr_Housing_Bubble
It is said that the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result. If we adhere to this definition, housing pundits must be clinically insane because since the middle of 2006 we've been hearing rhetoric of “yes, today we've reached bottom.” Amazing how these folks live on one way streets. During the past seven years, each new record high was welcomed and when asked if this was a peak most would respond that the sky was the limit. No end in their immediate future. If up to them, housing would appreciate 20% each year until the end of time.
Thursday, July 12, 2007
Where Are All The Homebuilder Bargains? / Companies / US Housing
By: Brady_Willett
Brady Willett & Todd Alway write: With U.S. homebuilder confidence slipping to a 16-year low in June and subprime contagion fears omnipresent, no one seemed to notice when Toll Brothers reported a 93.5% increase in its ‘Provision for inventory write-downs/write-offs' for the six-months ending April 2007. However, as the losses and/or inventory write-downs at Toll and other builders mount in the coming quarters, the carnage could prove difficult to ignore. After all, following more than a decade of truly spectacular gains, the good times for U.S. homebuilders are over.Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, July 07, 2007
Comparative Analysis of 3 U.S. Cities: Contrary to What Your Parents Told You, Not all Bubbles are Created Equally / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Dr_Housing_Bubble
As we are witnessing the mortgage debacle unfold in California, there are other parts of the country that felt very little impact by this seven year credit bubble. For the most part, this bubble has been isolated to coastal metro areas. Not uncommon in beach locales, housing in prime locations always yields a commanding price in the market. But to what extent? Actually to the extent the market can sustain the price, sellers will ask for Pollyanna if they have the inclination they will get it. Yet this desire for higher and riskier mortgages has added fuel to a housing craze unparalleled in history.Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, July 01, 2007
So Much for the Spring House Selling Season! / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Money_and_Markets
Mike Larson writes: I'm an optimist. No, really. In "regular life," I like to look at the bright side of things. Anyone who has known me for a long time will tell you the same thing.
But when it comes to the markets, I don't mess around. Starry-eyed optimism is a recipe for disaster. You have to approach trading and investing in a cold, rational manner. I don't care if you're talking about bonds, stocks, real estate, or anything else.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, June 28, 2007
The Housing Tipping Point. 3 Factors That Will Burst the Bubble: The Negative Wealth Effect, Negative Press, and Suffocating Debt Payments / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Dr_Housing_Bubble
As the Fed does an ostrich impression by sticking its head in the ground and pretending everything is okay, we are facing an economic tipping point ushered in via housing. The Fed has left the key interest rate steady once again. At this point, they are backed to a wall because lowering rates will signal that the economy is weak and needs additional help thus stunting consumer confidence. If they raise rates, they accelerate the bursting bubble because debt service on millions of American's mortgages will go higher thus taking money away from the national past time of mall shopping. We are quickly approaching a global tipping point.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, June 27, 2007
So, the US Housing Recession Is Contained? / Economics / US Housing
By: Paul_L_Kasriel
That's the conventional wisdom, but recent reports from retailers might suggest otherwise. Early in June, Bed Bath & Beyond issued a profit warning. BB&B's chief executive, Steven Temares, said: "Based upon what we have experienced and has been reported by others, the overall retailing environment, especially sales of merchandise related to the home , has been challenging" (emphasis added).Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, June 20, 2007
Irrational Housing: Insiders Out Early and the Duesenberry Effect / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Dr_Housing_Bubble
Markets operate under the assumption that key players act rationally in most circumstances. Their premise is such that market stability is based on people acting to a set of according rules. Much has been debated about this because economics as a science is cold and aloof; it is a matter of simply stating the facts. Yet we have learned in the recent housing mania that market psychology and behavioral economics play a large role in how people interpret risk and what constitutes an investment.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, June 19, 2007
Subprime Mortgage Problems Quarantined? Ask the Home Builders / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Paul_L_Kasriel
The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) index of current sales of new single-family homes edged down a tick to 29 in the June survey, the lowest reading for this housing cycle and the lowest reading since early 1991 (see Chart 1). Why? I will let David Seiders, the NAHB's chief economist, tell you in his own words: "It's clear that the crisis in the subprime sector has prompted tighter lending standards in much of the mortgage market, and interest rates on prime-quality home mortgages have moved up considerably during the past month along with long-term Treasury rates."Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, June 17, 2007
America's Codependence on Housing: 30% of Job Growth Contributed by Real Estate. Five Point Plan on how the Bubble Will Burst / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Dr_Housing_Bubble
America has gone housing crazy. In the last six years, housing has contributed to 29% of total employee additions. How does this equate to past decades? Let us take a look:
1971-1979: 10%
1980-1989: 12%
1990-1999: 10%
2000-2006: 29%
Friday, June 15, 2007
Homebuilders Stocks Rallying : How could this be? Part II / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Michael_K_Dawson
My trading strategy is fairly simple. I identify a dominate theme and then buy leading stocks in that theme. This has worked quite well for me over the years. Back in the good old days it was the Internet and stocks like AOL (TWX), CMGI (CMGI), Cisco (CSCO), Intel (INTC) and Microsoft (MSFT). Over the past three years, it has been industrialization of the emerging markets. This led to the formation of my Big Build-Out (BBO) portfolio and stocks like Companhia Vale do Rio Doce (RIO), Southern Copper (PCU) and BHP Billiton (BHP). Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, June 12, 2007
Housing Market Crashing? Yes, In Slow Motion / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Phillipa_Green
Interesting video on the US housing market crash by Itulip.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, June 11, 2007
So-Called Fed Model Suggests Housing Market Is Over-Valued / Economics / US Housing
By: Paul_L_Kasriel
Better late than never, huh? The so-called Fed model is often used to gauge the under-over-valuation of corporate equities by comparing the earnings yield on, say, the S&P 500 with the yield on the Treasury 10-year security. The same kind of analysis can be applied to owner-occupied housing by dividing the "earnings" or services produced by owner-occupied housing by the market value of that housing. The services produced by housing are estimated by the Bureau of Economic Analysis in its National Income and Product Table 2.45U, line item "Personal Consumption Expenditures: Owner-Occupied Nonfarm Dwellings: Space Rent."Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, June 02, 2007
What a Housing Market Recovery Will Look Like - Housing Bust Recovery in 1930s / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Submissions
The housing bust is here and we can all expect home prices to decline every year for years to come. However, recovery will eventually happen and when today's market seems bad just take a look at this video to know what a recovery looks likeRead full article... Read full article...
Friday, June 01, 2007
Price is Everything in Today's Housing Market! / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Money_and_Markets
Mike Larson writes : There is demand for housing out there. Yes, you heard me right — people are willing to buy homes.
There's just one catch: The prices have to be low!
That's one message from the April housing data. The other is that we are literally swimming in homes for sale — condos, town houses, single-family homes, you name it!
Let me tell you what this means …
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, May 31, 2007
Real Estate Bubbles and California's Economic Growth, Video Lecture Part 1 / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Submissions
An economics video presentation at Humboldt State University. Special guest lecturer Dr. Christopher Thornberg of Beacon Economics discusses the current housing bubble and its effects on CaliforniaRead full article... Read full article...
Monday, May 28, 2007
The California Housing Report: Details In the Data Show A Broad-based Price Decline / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Jas_Jain
Headline: "C.A.R. [California Association of Realtors] reports sales decrease 27.8 percent in April, median price of a home in California at $597,640, up 6.2 percent from year ago." Then we also read, "Throughout the state inventory levels have increased to their highest levels in recent years..."
Price increase in the climate of declining sales and rising inventory? Something doesn't add up.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, May 23, 2007
Homebuilders Stocks Rallying : How could this be? / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Michael_K_Dawson
Since bottoming on April 12th, the SPDR Homebuilders ETF (XHB) is up 12.5%; twice as much as the S&P 500's gain of 6%. If you are surprised by that statement you are not alone. I still find it hard to believe even after staring at the chart.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, May 22, 2007
Investment Flash: Derivatives Say Bernanke Will Be Wrong / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Paul_Lamont
U.S. mortgages in foreclosure rose in April 62% from a year ago according to RealtyTrac Inc. Folks are increasingly losing their homes as we warned last October . Attempting to allay fears, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke spoke last Thursday: "We believe the effect of the troubles in the subprime sector on the broader housing market will be limited and we do not expect significant spillovers from the subprime market to the rest of the economy or to the financial system." We clearly disagree.
Credit Suisse's ARM Reset Schedule, included in our last report , shows that over $1 Trillion dollars worth of adjustable rate mortgages will reset over the next 5 years. Bloomberg is just now reporting on the extent of the subprime meltdown . Even more telling is what credit derivative market charts are showing.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, May 16, 2007
US Housing Sector is Crashing, False Housing and Jobs statistics to eventually benefit Gold / Economics / US Housing
By: Jim_Willie_CB
The newest deceptions are with jobs and housing. Each is much worse than reported. The housing decline might be as much as 15% worse than reported, which leads to much bigger job loss than is reported. Most of the home construction job loss is under the table, to people not on state jobless insurance programs, and to immigrant workers paid in cash. Both fall through the statistical cracks in those home frames and plywood floors underlayments. A quick preface on the two biggest corrupted statistics first, since of paramount importance.
The US Federal Reserve will likely respond to more rapid job loss, and to more rapid home sector erosion decline. When they do, expect an official rate cut sequence to resemble that of 2001. As in, sharp & sudden. The signals surround us, that the major powers are in the process of permitting the USDollar to fall.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, May 10, 2007
Inventory and Sales Of Single Family Homes In Santa Clara County / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Jas_Jain
The median price for the county in April increased 12.1%, YoY, more than I expected, led by increased prices and volume in high-priced areas like Cupertino, Los Gatos and Palo Alto.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, May 04, 2007
Dump REITs - An early heads up on another Important US real estate trend! / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Money_and_Markets
Mike Larson writes: You want to know how to make big money in the markets? Be early.
By picking up on a trend in its infancy, you're able to position your portfolio for the day when that trend explodes onto the front pages of the nation's business sections. Then, when mainstream investors pile in, you'll be there to sell to them.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, May 02, 2007
Global stock market growth to offset US Housing Slump - Whistling Dixie To The Chicken Littles / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Brady_Willett
Having stayed out of the limelight for far to long, the 'bubbles forever!' doctrine is roaring back:
"Speculative money needs to go somewhere. There is no question that some of it is moving away from housing and into the stock market." Van der Eb, of the Gamco Mathers Fund, Chicago Tribune
"...bulls argue that global stock market strength helps to offset the wealth lost in people's homes..." Street
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, April 28, 2007
US Housing Bubble Meltdown: "Is it too late to get out"? / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Mike_Whitney
Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson delivered an upbeat assessment of the slumping real estate market on Friday saying, "All the signs I look at" show "the housing market is at or near the bottom.”Baloney.
Paulson added that the meltdown in subprime mortgages was not a “serious problem. I think it's going to be largely contained.”
Wrong again.
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Friday, April 27, 2007
More Bad News on the US Housing Market / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Money_and_Markets
Mike Larson writes I hate to sound like a broken record … I really don't enjoy being tagged as the "doom and gloomer" of the bunch here … I wish I could do something fun like my good friend Sean Brodrick, who gets to traipse through Canadian uranium mines and tell you all about the red-hot prospects in the sector!
But right now, it's my job to deliver bad tidings. Because when it comes to housing, there are plenty of 'em. With each passing month, more data confirms what I've been telling you — that the U.S. housing market remains stuck in the mud.
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Tuesday, April 24, 2007
Chicago Fed Index Points To Weak GDP Report On Friday / Economics / US Housing
By: Paul_L_Kasriel
The Chicago Fed publishes a monthly national economic activity index (CFNAI). With the release of its March index today, we can now calculate an average for the first quarter. And that first quarter average is minus 0.30 - the lowest quarterly average reading since Q2:2003 and the third consecutive quarterly contraction in the CFNAI. All of this points to another quarter of subpar real GDP growth for the first quarter, which already is expected by the consensus of forecasters.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, April 18, 2007
Consequences of Housing Bubble Crash Ignored by the Media for 2 Years / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Mike_Whitney
Trouble in Squanderville - Two years ago, anyone who wrote about the housing bubble was dismissed as a conspiracy nut. Now hardly a day goes by that the headlines aren't splattered with the details of the massive meltdown in the real estate market.What changed? The facts are essentially the same today as they were back then. In fact, the “Economist” — as well as many independent journalists — had already shown that the Fed's low interest rates had inflated the biggest equity bubble in history which could potentially bring down the entire economy.
Now, all of a sudden, the media is acting as if the problem sprouted up overnight?
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Monday, April 16, 2007
Hidden Home Price Decline In Silicon Valley Housing Market / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Jas_Jain
The home price declines in Silicon Valley are anything but hidden for most people trying to sell their homes, but it doesn't seem to show up in monthly and weekly reports that show slight YoY gains in the median prices. I have used Santa Clara County as a proxy for Silicon Valley and it is also a good proxy for the SF Bay Area except that Santa Clara County has held up better than most other parts of the Bay Area.
There are two sources of data that I have used - DataQuick, which reports on all home sales, SFHs (single family homes) and condos, new and resales, and sales on MLS, reported by California Association of Realtors (CAR), which reports SFHs and condos separately and most of the detail break down are for SFHs. San Jose Mercury News, the main paper in the area, publishes weekly data from DataQuick with break down by zip codes and that is my source for the DataQuick reports.
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Tuesday, April 10, 2007
Don't Blame the Market for Housing Bubble and Crash / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Dr_Ron_Paul
The U.S. housing market, long considered vulnerable by many economists, is now on the verge of suffering a serious collapse in many regions. Commodities guru and hedge fund manager Jim Rogers warns that real estate in expensive bubble areas will drop 40 or 50%. Mainstream media outlets like the New York Times are reporting breathlessly about the possibility of widespread defaults on subprime mortgages.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, April 04, 2007
Who's afraid of the US housing slump? / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Adrian_Ash
How the suckers robbed themselves in America's biggest ever Ponzi scheme...WHO'S AFRAID of falling home prices in the United States?
Bond investors might welcome a slump, says Bill Gross at Pimco. Head of the world's largest bond fund, he now forecasts "an ongoing bond bull market of still undefined proportions" thanks to US interest rates falling in response to the subprime collapse.
Gross's models put US rates back around 4%, down from the current 5.25%, if the Fed wants to stabilize national home prices.
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Wednesday, April 04, 2007
Subprime Mortgage Problem Contained? Give Me A Break! / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Michael_K_Dawson
I think that some heads are going to roll when Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson are forced to admit that the subprime mortgage problem is not contained. In my previous professional life, I worked as a sales person for a software company. We as sales people were often referred to as “feet on the street.” In addition to our sales responsibilities, we were responsible for gathering competitive information, surveying the landscape, detecting trends and most importantly feeding this data back to headquarters. Through formal as well as informal channels, the “feet on the street” ensured that the executives always had the most current field data. Since the executives were constantly speaking to Wall Street or in Industry forums inaccurate data could be very costly in many ways.
Obviously there is no such thing as “feet in the street” in the Government. If it were so, Paulson never would have made the following statement “Damage to the American economy from the housing market downturn and subprime mortgage foreclosures appears to be contained…” Five days after his remarks, in a statement released by a Buffalo, N.Y. based regional bank M&T Bank Corp (MTB), it stated that it is having trouble selling some of its loans. Prices dropped more than anticipated in its recent auction of some of its Alt-A loans – loans that fall between subprime and prime.
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Monday, April 02, 2007
Will the Vacation Industry be a Victim of Sub-prime and ARM Problems? / Companies / US Housing
By: Marty_Chenard
Where and How will the sub-prime/ARM problems hurt other parts of the economy?
Who will get hurt first?
You are probably tired of hearing about the sub-prime problem by now. There is another aspect about sub-prime problems that the no one is talking about that has underlying implications regarding delinquent debts problems .
Larry Jeddoloh, of TIS Group, made a good observation about consumers caught in debt problems relative to their mortgage payments and losing their homes. He said that, " ... when a consumer is in deep debt, they always try to save their homes first. They will let their credit card payments go, stop payments on their car, and default on loans from a relative before they lose their house." What about those who are not in deep debt yet?
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Thursday, March 29, 2007
US Housing Market - Only One Sub-prime cockroach? / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Hans_Wagner
One of the Trading Rules identified by Dennis Gartman of The Gartman Letter states that there is never only just one cockroach. If you see one, you know more are hiding in the walls and behind the counters. Investors who seek to beat the market should carefully consider this principle when they are considering investments in sectors that are experiencing trouble. They also might want to read Ahead of the Curve: A Commonsense Guide to Forecasting Business and Market Cycles 
by Joe Ellis is an excellent book on how to predict macro moves of the market.
Well, as I mentioned in earlier commentaries, the problems in the sub-prime mortgage market are going to become more significant over time. Where there is one cockroach, there will be many more. For example, www.lenderimplode.com lists 39 sub-prime mortgage firms that have either shut down or been taken over so far.
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Saturday, March 24, 2007
US Housing Market - All Foreclosures, All Subprime, All the Time / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: John_Mauldin
At the risk of being all subprime, all the time, this week we look at what I think are the real risks for the economy as a result of the subprime debacle. How can one side say it is a contained risk (and in one sense it is) and not a problem for the economy while another side says it will drag the US into a recession and thus be a drag on the world economy? The answers will give us a handle on the whole issue, as we look at how the problem developed.
But first, let me correct an error. Last Monday in my Outside the Box, we used a brilliant piece of work from Dr. Woody Brock on why we need more derivatives and that the real problem in the derivatives market is not the size of the market. If you did not read it, you should.
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Wednesday, March 21, 2007
US Housing Market - IndyMac - We are Not a Subprime Lender! / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Michael_K_Dawson
On March 15, IndyMac released a rather lengthy press release claiming that it had been inappropriately categorized by many media sources as a subprime lender. IndyMac stated that it is primarily a prime/Alt-A mortgage lender with minimal exposure to subprime. With the subprime lenders in melt-down mode, it is quite understandable why IndyMac would want to differentiate itself.
However, in doing so it brought more attention to itself and was featured in an article by CNN Money called “Liar loans: Mortgage Woes Beyond Subprime.” Sometimes it pays just to be quiet.
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Tuesday, March 20, 2007
The United States of Foreclosure - Subprime fiasco to trigger Stock Market Crash / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Mike_Whitney
The stock market is about to crash. The only question is whether it will quickly fall down the elevator shaft or follow the jerky flight-path of a man pushed down a stairwell. Either way, the outcome will be the same; stocks will nose-dive, the dollar will plummet, and the bruised US economy will be splattered on the canvas like George Foreman in Rumble in the Jungle.Troubles in the sub-prime market have just begun to materialize and already 38 main sub prime lenders have gone kaput. Foreclosures have reached a 37 year high, and an estimated 2 million homeowners will be put out on the street in the next few years.
And that's just for starters.
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Saturday, March 17, 2007
What I'm seeing in the US Housing Market now / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Money_and_Markets
The last few weeks have been disastrous for the major homebuilders and mortgage lenders. The stocks have been crushed across the board. I'm not talking about a few percentage points. I'm talking about …
A 45% plunge in subprime mortgage company Fremont General (NYSE: FMT) in just 12 trading days …
A whopping 87% five-day collapse in New Century Financial , some of which took place on the Pink Sheets because the New York Stock Exchange suspended the shares …
A multi-week, 24% decline in the shares of homebuilder Centex (NYSE: CTX) …
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Thursday, March 15, 2007
US Subprime Mortgage Meltdown - Financial Fiascos Everywhere! / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Clif_Droke
“Millions at risk of losing homes” was the headline on the news wires on Wednesday, March 14. This happened on the day when the stock market showed a positive intraday reversal on strong trading volume. Obviously, the stock market wasn't put off by this negative piece of news.
If it were true that millions of Americans risk losing their homes over the sub-prime mortgage fiasco, the market would have already tanked by now.
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Wednesday, March 14, 2007
US Housing Mortgage Sector Meltdown - From the Sub-Prime to the Ridiculous / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Peter_Schiff
With the meltdown in the sub-prime mortgage sector now laid bare, many on Wall Street desperately cling to the notion that the pain will be localized. The prevalent delusion is that the overall mortgage, housing and stock markets will be little impacted by the carnage ravaging the sub-prime sector.
As such, renewed stock market weakness is seen as an over-reaction and a great buying opportunity. These assumptions represent wishful thinking in the extreme.
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Wednesday, March 14, 2007
A Bailout of the US Housing Market before the Bust ? / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Brady_Willett
Mortgage Bankers Association Chief Economist, Douglas Duncan, believes that mortgage activity is set to dip and that “there's no question that the decline in [mortgage] volume will reveal excess capacity”. Although Mr. Duncan isn't painting on overly grim picture, it is worth pointing out that he offered this negative outlook more than 3-years ago …Nearly Three Years of Insanity All But Over
As it would turn out, the so called ‘excess capacity' in the mortgage industry wasn't shed in 2004, it was simply utilized to push more ‘creative' mortgages.
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Sunday, March 11, 2007
China and the Hedge Fund Dragon - Subprime Mortgage Market continues to Implode / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: John_Mauldin
This week we look at the possible latest entry into the hedge fund world, The People's Republic of China; review the cockroach principle of subprime mortgages; and investigate the possibility of whether we need more derivatives and not less than the $283 trillion or so we now have. It's a lot to cover, but it should all be interesting.
And speaking of China, we all read the stories about the rapid growth of the economy, the increasing percentage of the growth in demand for commodities and energy that comes because of that growth, the increased trade deficit with the US, and the rapid increase in foreign reserves.
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Friday, March 09, 2007
The next wave of the US Housing Market Crash - Apartment REITs / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Money_and_Markets
I told you about the housing sales and pricing declines before they happened …
I told you that the subprime mortgage industry would end in disaster before the stocks blew up …
And today, I want to tell you about the next major group of companies that I think are going to get hit from the housing bust. I'm talking about apartment Real Estate Invest Trusts (REITs).
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Thursday, March 08, 2007
Subprime mortgages hit Banking sector and likely to lead to further Stock Market Falls / Stock-Markets / US Housing
By: Marty_Chenard
Let's look at a 3 year picture of the S&P 500 versus the Banking Index today.
Why is it important to look at the Banking Index at this time?
The answer is, "because of mortgages, the home building industry, and a credit contraction."
First, the home building industry caved in, but our economy seemed unaffected.
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Sunday, February 25, 2007
Foreclosure USA - US Housing Bust, Debt and Democracy Lost / Politics / US Housing
By: Joel_S_Hirschhorn
We the people once owned our democracy. We elected "representatives" to run it for US. Have you noticed? Somewhere along the way we lost our democracy. It was foreclosed by wealthy and power elites that corrupted our "representatives" who literally sold us out. Our homeland was foreclosed right in plain sight. Sure, we citizens still reside in the USA, but we no longer own our democracy. We pay rent through our taxes. But we no longer have any equity. Our democracy is owned by the rich, and their partner foreign elites and governments, which is why in a strict sense it no longer is a democracy, but rather a plutocracy. Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, February 10, 2007
US housing market - Subprime lending sector spiraling south ! / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Money_and_Markets
ContiFinancial ... EquiCredit ... The Money Store ... Southern Pacific Funding. Maybe you've never heard of them, but they were the subprime mortgage lending stars of the mid-to-late 1990s.
They specialized in making loans to borrowers with bad credit, little or no down payments, and a host of other problems. Once they made loans, they'd sell them off to Wall Street firms and other investors, who would help package them together into bonds — a process known as “securitization.” The subprime lenders would use the proceeds to make additional mortgages, and the process would start all over again.
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Sunday, September 17, 2006
IMF Warns Housing Market could slow US GDP growth / Economics / US Housing
By: Sarah_Jones
The International Monetary Fund warned that the U.S. economy is headed for a slowdown caused by a cooling housing market, and that could drag on global growth.
The IMF revised downward its forecast for U.S. economic growth to 2.9 percent for 2007 from an estimate of 3.3 percent in April. This year, the U.S. is seen expanding 3.4 percent, the fund projected in its semiannual World Economic Outlook.
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Sunday, September 10, 2006
The Effects of a US Housing Market Crash / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Sarah_Jones
House prices across the atlantic continue to tumble across the board, with the National Association of Realtors, reporting a price fall of 1.7 per cent last month to $225,000 (£118,000), while sales of existing homes drop 0.5% to an annual rate of 6.3 million. At the same time, ever more owners are being forced to put properties on the market as mortgage rates have steadily risen, further dimming prospects of an improvement in the short term. The total of existing homes on the market is now the highest since April 1993.
As house prices fall, there will likely be many more defaults on mortgage products, such as ARM (adjustable rate mortgages), which the US borrowers were not used to a floating interest rate instead having relied on fixed rate products, now as interest rates have risen to 5.25% from just 1% have seen a surge in foreclosures reaching some 116,000 in August, up 53% on a year ago.
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