Sunday, November 20, 2022
Stock Market Investors Aren’t Buying the Fed’s Hawkish Posturing / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: MoneyMetals
As warning signs for the economy mount, investors are cheering for more bad news. That's because they expect economic weakness will force the Federal Reserve to stop raising interest rates and eventually re-embrace loose monetary policy.One reliable indicator over the years of an upcoming recession is an inverted yield curve. An inversion occurs when short-term interest rates rise above long-term rates.
Typically, a 3-month Treasury bill or 2-year note will yield less than a 10-year note or 30-year bond. Shorter-duration debt instruments entail less risk and therefore deliver less reward under normal circumstances. But over the past four months, short-term IOUs have begun to yield more than longer-term paper.
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Friday, November 18, 2022
WHY PEAK INFLATION IS a RED HERRING / Economics / Inflation
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
The Inflation Mega-trend
REAL INFLATON and not the BS statistics that the likes of the Fed and Bank of England vomit every month, fake inflation statistics watered down over decades to hide the stealth theft of wealth and purchasing power of wages and savings..
I have been calculating my my own inflation measure for the UK for a couple of decades now which computes to the UK inflation rate currently being at about 20% per annum! In fact it has been in a range of 15% to 20% for over a year!
As for the United States, shadow stats does a good job of calculating the real rate of inflation which ia based on the US governments own 1980 formulae that resolves to 13.5% vs 8.2%.
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Friday, November 18, 2022
As inflation eases, Macro grinds favor of Gold Stocks Mining Sector / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: Gary_Tanashian
The macro market and economic backdrop continues to pivot favorable for the gold mining sector
The risk/reward for gold stocks has been very good after 2.5 years of correction that, contrary to what a majority of gold bugs think, was very valid amid the post-pandemic cycle of cyclical inflation. I won’t review the details about why here, as it is beyond the scope of this article and I’ve parroted them in several blog posts at nftrh.com. But suffice it to say, the gold stock sector did the work it was supposed to do since August, 2020.
In a previous post we noted the risk/reward of gold (mining product) vs. crude oil (mining cost driver) that is at once very bearish for gold stocks and implying a great risk/reward proposition for gold, and by extension, the gold mining sector. Here is a chart showing the Gold/Oil ratio in a very depressed (bearish) state with nowhere left to go but up. That’s the positive risk/reward that has been hammered out since the high risk days of mid-2020 as the ‘inflation trades’ were just getting underway.
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Friday, November 18, 2022
Can a Gold Stocks Rally Be Bearish? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: P_Radomski_CFA
History tends to repeat itself, and mining stocks appear to be repeating their 2008 performance, which has very interesting implications.
Why do I think that gold miners are repeating their 2008 price patterns? Please take a look at the below chart.
Friday, November 18, 2022
Banks are becoming more cautious about lending / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2022
By: EWI
And the implications are bigger than just getting a loan
Robert Prechter's Last Chance to Conquer the Crash discusses the psychological aspect of a deflation:
When the trend of social mood changes from optimism to pessimism, creditors, debtors, investors, producers and consumers all change their primary orientation from expansion to conservation. As creditors become more conservative, they slow their lending.
Evidence of that developing financially conservative mindset is seen in this chart from the just-published November Global Market Perspective, a monthly Elliott Wave International publication which covers 50-plus worldwide financial markets (commentary below):
Friday, November 18, 2022
Amazon Black Friday - How to Grab BEST Deals, Top Tips and Hacks to Dodge FAKE SALES / Personal_Finance / Money Saving
By: HGR
It's Black Friday soon, and apparently Amazon is turning it into a week long sale, though its probably better to WAIT until the 26th of November for the real sales. Here are my top tips and hacks to ensure that you actually do grab bargains and not fall fowl to the tricks that sellers tend to pull such as raising prices before the sales and then cut on Black Friday so that there is no real sale. plenty of advice in our video on how to dodge the fake sales
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Friday, November 18, 2022
Feeding the Quantum AI Tech Stocks Bear / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
For some reason most folk when looking at the charts focus on the high vs the low as if investors only buy and sell at the exact highs and lows, well maybe the mania herd bought near the highs last year to sell near the lows this year but most intelligent investors don't invest that way i.e. during the second half of last year, I sold down 80% of my AI tech stocks portfolio in advance of this bear market, including warning virtually within a few percent of the high to get ready for a bear market during 2022 and maybe even worse a crash! That was on the 5th of December 2021!
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Tuesday, November 15, 2022
The INTEL Empire Strikes Back! 13th Gen Raptor Lake Beats AMD Ryzen 7000 CPUs / Companies / INTEL
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Intel is BACK! RAPTOR LAKE!
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Tuesday, November 15, 2022
S&P 500 Reached 4,000 – Is Stocks Bear Market Over? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Paul_Rejczak
Stock prices extended their advance on Friday, as the S&P 500 index reached the 4,000 level. We may see a profit-taking action, however, bulls are still in charge.The S&P 500 index gained 0.92% on Friday following its Thursday’s rally of 5.5%. The market remained bullish after the Thursday’s Consumer Price Index release and the broad stock market’s gauge went the highest since September 13. On Friday, the daily high was at 4,001.48.
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Tuesday, November 15, 2022
Why Sheffield's Mobile Signal Coverage BAD - O2, EE, Three, Sky Vodafone / Local / Sheffield
By: N_Walayat
The last time many Sheffielders experienced a good mobile signal was near 2 months ago! Find out why in our latest video on why many of Sheffield's Mobile mast towers are SWITCHED OFF!
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Saturday, November 12, 2022
FTX Crypto Exchange Collapse Poses Warning of Much Broader Market Risks / Currencies / cryptocurrency
By: MoneyMetals
Investors finally got some good news this week on the inflation front. Thursday's Consumer Price Index report showing price level increases moderating somewhat sent stocks, bonds, and precious metals all soaring.
CPI inflation still came in elevated at an annual rate of 7.7% through October. But that was slightly lower than analyst expectations. The 7.7% reading also represents a possible deceleration trend from earlier in the year when the CPI was running well above 8%.
With the official inflation rate now heading down a little bit, the Federal Reserve will likely start scaling back its interest rate hikes. Expectations for Fed softening helped drive the U.S. Dollar Index down to a two-month low.
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Saturday, November 12, 2022
Crypto investing for beginners – insights you might need in 2023 / Currencies / Crypto Mining
By: Submissions
As time goes on, new altcoins appear out of obscurity and challenge Bitcoin and Ethereum's statuses. However, even in this context, Bitcoin remains the king of the market, with over 43% of the crypto market capitalisation. The oldest digital token has gained worldwide attention and doesn't seem to slow down.
The growing interest, adoption, and investment in Bitcoin and other currencies have investors curious about trading digital currencies. The following recommendations and market insights take the reader through the basics of trading digital currencies.
Saturday, November 12, 2022
Sheffield O2 Mobile Network Masts Not Working - Bad O2 GiffGaff Sky Vodafone Signal / Local / Mobile Technology
By: N_Walayat
It's now approaching 2 months, TWO MONTHS! Since the good folk of Sheffield last had a decent mobile signal in at leas the Southern half of the city as apparently multiple masts are down. Query online and one is met with response that the mast is down due to a traffic accident. really? Then how come more than 1 mast is down. Sheffielders are suffering from a very bad mobile signal across multiple networks including O2 GiffGaff Sky Vodafone,, which manifestos with inability to make or receive calls indoors or text messages, and even outdoors one has to find an open space away from houses, for instance stand in the middle of the road with the phone held high so as to get a signal! How long does it take to fix a mast? And why are more than 1 masts switched off in Sheffield, find out as we investigate.
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Saturday, November 12, 2022
The 7 Best Things About Online Poker / Personal_Finance / Online Gambling
By: Sumeet_Manhas
Poker is not just for the sophisticated player. It's one of many games players at any level can enjoy. There are casino poker games, home poker games, and online poker games. While each type of poker has perks, playing online poker can offer advantages over the other types.
Online poker has become one of the most popular games to play online. It gives players a chance to win money by playing against other players from all over the world. Here are the seven best things about playing online poker:
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Thursday, November 10, 2022
Stock Market Discounting Events Big Picture - FEEDING THE BEAST! / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
This is the first excerpt from my extensive analysis that concludes in a detailed trend forecast right into the end of 2023, well beyond the scope of what I had originally planned to be a 1 year trend forecast. Yes I posted part 2 before part 1 so that my Patrons gained immediate access to my trend forecast rather than have to wait a few days for that which they ultimately seek. This is the problem with mega-pieces of analysis in the time needed to proof read, error correct and edit so that hopefully the article makes sense to others, but still mistakes can happen such as the recent Bull Trap / Bear Trap saga illustrated. So multiple time consuming proof readings are necessary so as to whittle down the number of errors and to ensure the text matches what I meant for it to say.
And before we get started, the world took another baby step towards Czar Putin sending nukes flying as the Ukrainians apparently fired a missile at the bridge that they don't have access to,That's if the Russian tactical nukes actually work given how rubbish the Russian Army has turned out to be, as the war that was supposed be over within days of invasion instead drags on building the pressure keeps on Putin as his little fat fingers inch closer towards pressing the nuclear button.
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Thursday, November 10, 2022
Why Now 'Is a Great Time To Load up on Silver and Silver Investments / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: Clive_Maund
Expert Clive Maund reviews silver's 4-month and 1-year charts to tell you why he believes it is a good time to load up on this precious metal.
Silver has three irresistible attributes at this time, one is that it is very cheap historically, especially when you factor in mounting inflation in recent times. Another is that, in common with metals generally, it looks set to enter a robust bull market as the dollar breaks down into a severe bear market.
The arguments relating to why the dollar looks set to break down have been set out in the parallel Gold Market update, as have the other circumstantial factors supportive of a rising silver price, such as the upside breakouts by copper and oil, so they will not be repeated here.
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Thursday, November 10, 2022
Stock Market Tight CPI Race / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Monica_Kingsley
S&P 500 invalidated the key bull flag thesis laid out in yesterday‘s chart section, and both 3,815 and low 3,770s supports gave way. I think markets are positioning for too hot CPI beating expectations, in what results in a boat inordinately tilted the risk-off way, positioned for still accelerating inflation beyond the consensus 7.9% YoY. True, I‘m looking for a sticky figure likewise, but would be happy about 8.1% that still has the potential to generate some relief for risk-on assets.
In such a tight trading range pre-CPI, it‘s key to think in terms of upside and downside risks with their probabilities and advance clues – those to the upside on the CPI release prevail, no matter that I‘m not wildly optimistic about Nov, and I refuse the notion of Fed pivot or even pause as being anyhow near, not even just a couple of months away, no. This is what it means for the short-term S&P 500 path. Crucially, I‘m looking for a bright Dec, and not a great Nov monthly candle. As for today, these bullish cues simply can‘t be ignored in delivering a surprise to the sellers.
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Wednesday, November 09, 2022
RECESSIONS 2023 / Economics / Recession 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
In terms of economic activity of all the major economies the US is the most robust so Recession delayed, which may never materialise. Meanwhile the rest of the world, especially Europe is scrambling to counter soaring energy bills and economic stagnation.
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Wednesday, November 09, 2022
GBPUSD 7 Charts to Help You Catch the Next Move / Currencies / British Pound
By: EWI
Hi,
You're invited to a free forex webinar!
Now that the British pound has almost hit parity with the U.S. dollar, forex traders everywhere are wondering what's next.
Our friends at Elliott Wave International are hosting a live webinar to answer the question. Join EWI's Senior Currency Strategist, Michael Madden, on November 10th at 12 PM Eastern/NY time. He'll show you 7+ eye-opening charts that highlight where GBP has been -- going back all the way to the late 1700s! -- how it got to where it is today, and, most importantly, what Elliott waves suggest next for Cable.
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Wednesday, November 09, 2022
What the USDX Shows Will Happen to Crude Oil Price Soon / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Submissions
Less than a month from now – on December 5 – an embargo on maritime exports of Russian crude oil to the European Union will come into force, as I explained in my last article.
As a result, global oil supply is expected to tighten significantly, with Russia being the world’s largest exporter of oil and fuels.
Therefore, energy markets are bracing for turbulence, as they may face a new storm of volatility.
On the macroeconomic view, the US Dollar Currency Index – still weakening against a basket of major currencies – starts looking down from the balcony to revisit some lower floors: