Saturday, December 31, 2022
Gold Will Reflect Inflation 2023 / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2023
By: Zeal_LLC
Gold largely ignored inflation raging out of control in 2022. Despite the first inflation super-spike since the 1970s, history’s ultimate inflation hedge disappointed. But that unsustainable anomaly driven by extreme Fed rate hikes catapulting the US dollar parabolic won’t last. Inevitably prevailing gold prices will adjust much higher to reflect this red-hot inflation fueled by epic money-supply growth. That’s very bullish for 2023.
During this past year, the primary US inflation gauge recorded extremes not seen in four decades. The monthly headline Consumer Price Index averaged blistering 8.1% year-over-year surges, never printing lower than 7.1%. June 2022’s staggering 9.1% peak proved the hottest CPI since way back in November 1981, fully 40.6 years earlier! And the CPI has been heavily watered down since, lowballed for political reasons.
Such serious inflation should’ve lit a fire under gold, fueling massive investment demand. Gold got off to a strong start in 2022, surging up 12.1% year-to-date in early March. But that was a geopolitical spike on Russia invading Ukraine, which wasn’t sustainable. From there gold collapsed 20.9% over the next 6.6 months into late September. That left it down a shocking 11.3% YTD in the worst inflation year since 1981!
That gaping gold-inflation disconnect made no sense, leaving investors increasingly bearish. But gold’s brutal mid-2022 plunge was an extreme anomaly driven by the Fed scrambling to stuff that inflation genie back in the bottle. Between mid-March to early November, the Federal Open Market Committee hiked its federal-funds rate an astounding 375 basis points. That included a shocking streak of four monster 75bp hikes!
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Saturday, December 31, 2022
Gold, Silver, & Platinum Had a Good New Year 2023 / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2023
By: MoneyMetals
Precious metals markets are finishing out a choppy 2022 on an up note. A strong fourth quarter is pushing both gold and silver prices back up into positive territory for the year.
The yellow metal got off to a hot start in 2022, reaching as high as $2,050 an ounce in March. But it suffered a severe pullback in the second and third quarters. A rising U.S. dollar exchange rate amid aggressive Federal Reserve rate hikes drove futures traders to dump precious metals contracts.
In recent weeks, the Federal Reserve note dollar has begun trending lower versus foreign currencies – spurring the gold market to pick up some steam.
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Saturday, December 31, 2022
Silver: What Happened in 2022, and What Could Happen in 2023? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2023
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
It was an especially intense year, and silver held on tight. If 2023 is even more intense than 2022, silver won’t have a choice but to rally.A lot has happened this year. Russia invaded Ukraine. North Korea fired off missile after missile. Latin America turned to the left. The United Kingdom lost a queen, gained a king, and saw three Prime Ministers in Downing Street. President Xi Jinping was re-elected for an unprecedented third term as the General Secretary of the Communist Party of China, cementing his grip on power. Protests have been raging across Iran. The world population crossed 8 billion. On a personal note, my favorite sportsman and probably the best tennis player in history, Roger Federer, ended his brilliant career.
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Saturday, December 31, 2022
Stock Market and 10 Year U.S. Treasury Bond Yields - Trend Forecast 2023 / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The consensus view is that falling bond yields are good for stocks. However that is not accurate, what stocks like is mildly falling OR rising bond yields. What stocks do not like is what we have witnessed since the start of the year, that is fast moving bond yields as the bond bubble burst in the wake of HIGH INFLATION.
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Saturday, December 31, 2022
Cost of Living Crisis Hits Christmas Markets Across the UK - Sheffield - HIGH INFLATION / Local / Sheffield
By: Eliza_Walayat
Nurses, postmen, railwaymen and many others are striking for higher pay due to the raging cost of living crisis as workers pay do not match the prices in the shop, FAKE inflation indices of 10% when real inflation is 20%! Even Santa has hiked his Grotto price by 60%! Making Christmas that bit more painful for many families - BAD SANTA! This is why Christmas markets up and down the land have done badly during the festive season as many visitors did an about turn when the saw the high prices.
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Friday, December 30, 2022
Stock Market Cool as a Cucumber Despite Earnings and Fed Noise / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
I got my COVD AUTUMN BOOSTER JAB (Pfizer Biontech) Saturday afternoon, unfortunately I have since been paying the price in terms of side effects that kicked in some 12 hours afterwards with shivers and chills, and continue as I write some 36 hours later I am feeling like I have a light flu, lethargic, lack of energy, drowsy despite having slept for over 12 hours. some Brain fog. Still I will see this article posted even if it is the last thing I do!
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Friday, December 30, 2022
What Signals Do Gold, Silver, and Stocks Send to Investors? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: P_Radomski_CFA
While the statistics scream, investors, often blinded by emotions, do not hear them. However, since history seems to rhyme, what do gold, silver, and mining stocks have in store for us?
What a boring month!
At least for those who monitor the performance of junior mining stocks. It’s Dec. 29, and the monthly price change for the GDXJ ETF is $0.15 (0.41%). That’s how much higher the GDXJ is now than it was at the end of November. That’s next to nothing – almost a “statistical error.”
Friday, December 30, 2022
Dow Stock Market Annual Percent Change Analysis - Trend Forecast 2023 / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
In my extensive analysis of September 2021 this indicator warned to expect the Dow to drop to 28k, the low to date has been 28.7k! For the bull market proper to resume this indicator needs trade above the thick black line, until then the market remains in no mans land of trading within range with the risks of worse to come. Most probable is the market trades in a range i.e. to trade above the blue dotted line, until the market has worked through it's bear phase. At this point I am discounting a re-run of 2008, as so far the indicator is showing a tendency to remain above the grey line, however this also implies that the bull market proper could be as much as a year away! In terms of price, the Dow is not going to see a new all time high anytime soon, probably beyond the end of 2023.
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Friday, December 30, 2022
Major Fed Myth: Debunked - Fed is Reactive in Setting Rates – Not Proactive / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: EWI
The days of near-zero interest rates are long gone -- at least for now.
As we look back on 2022, we know that it's been a year of rising interest rates, and many observers say it's all due to the Fed.
But it's a flat-out myth that the Fed determines the trend of interest rates. The market does. The Fed merely.
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Friday, December 30, 2022
Sheffield Peace Gardens 2022 Christmas Lights Giant Displays Fun / Local / Sheffield
By: Eliza_Walayat
Here's a look at the wonderful sights and sounds at Sheffield Peace Gardens, christmas lights 2022, giant ornaments which this year included a teddy bear, telephone box and a couple of fountains. So do visit Sheffield and check out the light shows as well as the sights and sounds of the Christmas market and Barkers Pool amongst other shows in our other videos.
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Thursday, December 29, 2022
How Stocks Bear Markets DIE! Technical Trend Analysis Forecast 2023 / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The Dow is bouncing off a new bear market low of 28,700 having already broken above the preceding low of 29.7k that targets resistance at 31k. However given the degree of momentum behind this rally the Dow could easily continue climbing to target 32k which would represent a sizeable 12% advance in what I would consider as being a sub-swing i.e. not the whole move which implies that this rally that apparently is being dismissed by most as bear market rally could eventually retrace the whole disown move from the 34k high. But for now the Dow 1st targets 31k and then 32k before it is likely to correct towards 30.5k before RESUMING it's bull run.
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Wednesday, December 28, 2022
Formulating a Stock Market Trend Forecast for 2023 / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The character of this bear market has been changing since the June low, first came the break above 33.3k into the August FOMO peak. and then came the decline to 28.7k that whilst a new bear market low was weak in trend channel terms.
so what is going on?
ACCUMULATION is what's going on, Accumulating since the June low. It should be fairly obvious that there is a lot of buying gone on and market manipulation so as to allow it to happen. It's as though the wolfs of wall street are leading the retail investor lambs to slaughter as the retail crowd are dealt hammer blows in either direction aimed at fleecing them of their wealth.
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Wednesday, December 28, 2022
Formulating a Stock Market Trend Forecast for 2023 / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The character of this bear market has been changing since the June low, first came the break above 33.3k into the August FOMO peak. and then came the decline to 28.7k that whilst a new bear market low was weak in trend channel terms.
so what is going on?
ACCUMULATION is what's going on, Accumulating since the June low. It should be fairly obvious that there is a lot of buying gone on and market manipulation so as to allow it to happen. It's as though the wolfs of wall street are leading the retail investor lambs to slaughter as the retail crowd are dealt hammer blows in either direction aimed at fleecing them of their wealth.
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Wednesday, December 28, 2022
Despite the War in Europe, Gold Remains Below Its 2011 High / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: P_Radomski_CFA
Can gold's recent short-term rally be considered bullish, or can we expect a decline like in 2008?
Is Silver Really Strong?
Gold and silver are moving higher today, but nothing really changed despite that. Silver moved to its previous highs, while gold didn’t (chart courtesy of https://GoldPriceForecast.com).
Monday, December 26, 2022
How Stocks Bear Markets DIE! Technical Trend Analysis Forecast 2023 / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
Dow Short-term Trend Analysis
The Dow is bouncing off a new bear market low of 28,700 having already broken above the preceding low of 29.7k that targets resistance at 31k. However given the degree of momentum behind this rally the Dow could easily continue climbing to target 32k which would represent a sizeable 12% advance in what I would consider as being a sub-swing i.e. not the whole move which implies that this rally that apparently is being dismissed by most as bear market rally could eventually retrace the whole disown move from the 34k high. But for now the Dow 1st targets 31k and then 32k before it is likely to correct towards 30.5k before RESUMING it's bull run.
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Monday, December 26, 2022
Gold Price Upleg Still Young / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2023
By: Zeal_LLC
Gold has been powering higher on balance for a couple months now, surging to major breakouts. That upside momentum is improving sentiment, with traders growing more bullish on gold’s potential. That is well-placed, as this upleg remains young. Major gold uplegs are three-stage events, each having distinct drivers. The first and smallest stage isn’t even finished yet, which bodes very well for gold and its miners’ stocks.
The yellow metal’s latest upleg was stealthily born at panic-grade lows in late September. Over the next 2.8 months into this week, gold powered an impressive 12.1% higher! Yet that remains small and young by recent-upleg standards. Gold’s previous four uplegs in the last few years averaged way-bigger 28.8% gains over much-longer durations of 7.9 months. This current upleg is likely only getting started, with a lot to prove.
Major gold uplegs evolve through three stages of specific buying from particular traders. They are born when gold-futures speculators buy to cover short contracts, which is stage one. After gold falls to deep lows, some catalyst spooks these guys. So they rush to close out their risky hyper-leveraged downside bets, which is legally required. That buying soon becomes self-feeding, catapulting gold sharply higher.
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Monday, December 26, 2022
US Debt Jubilee / Interest-Rates / US Debt
By: Richard_Mills
A cross-the-board ‘Debt Jubilee’ might sound radical, but a reading of history shows that retiring debt can actually make a country’s economy, and its indebted citizenry, all the better for it. There is even a relatively recent example. In 2000, U2 front man Bono launched a campaign to provide debt relief to developing countries. The Jubilee 2000 coalition managed to get the G8 to agree to write off $100 billion in debts that developing countries owed to developed nations.
The term ‘Jubilee’ comes from the Old Testament. The book of Deuteronomy refers to a sabbath year during which any slaves would be freed, and everyone would be allowed to return to their family farms and live off the land. During the Jubilee, all debt obligations would be forgiven — such as land or crops that debtors had pledged to creditors.
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Monday, December 26, 2022
US Economy and Stock Market Addicted to Deficit Spending - Trend Forecast 2023 / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Want to know what tends to drive the stock market into the stratosphere? US Deficit Spending! (actually twin deficits including Trade).
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Monday, December 26, 2022
Fuse Box RCD Tripping - How to Troubleshoot Putting Power Back On. Before Calling an Electrician / Personal_Finance / Home Maintenance
By: HGR
Fuse box keeps tripping? Does your electric keep tripping? Then watch this video on how to troubleshoot to get your power back on before calling an electrician.
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Monday, December 26, 2022
Llandudno Ferris Wheel at Sheffield City Centre Christmas Market 2022 / Local / Sheffield
By: Eliza_Walayat
Here's a look at the wonderful sights and sounds at Sheffield Christmas Market where the prime attraction was the giant Ferris Wheel brought over from Llandudno Wales. Llandudno Pier owner Adam Williams rolled the the £1million Wheel all the way from Wales to Sheffield Christmas Market after being taken down from the Llandudno pier last month that takes centre piece at Sheffield's christmas festivities.
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