ASML Stock Price Analysis Forecast 2023

Companies / Tech Stocks Jan 08, 2023 - 09:22 PM GMT

Ai Stocks Portfolio

A quick look at the current state of my portfolio which is now 88.5% invested after arrival of approx 5% of fresh cash and after I sold all of my NBIX holding given that it earlier retreated from a multi year high, and that it tends to trade within a range of $125 to $76. I have update the table to indicate when columns were last updated. I have also replaced the beta column with something more useful called Future Growth (1-10), which is basically how I see the COMPANY doing in terms of future growth potential where 10 is the highest and 1 is the lowest, note this does not mean that the stock prices will match growth potential due to a myriad of factors such as sentiment, valuation and politics, but it gives insight into the underlying prospects for the businesses where the two stocks that score 10 are AMD and TSMC which is why I am heavily invested in both and don't fret about stock price drops in either as recently experienced because the underlying businesses have huge long-term future growth potential. Stocks that score 9 are Nvidia, Facebook, ASML and IBM, which again means I am not too phased by what we recently witnessed with the likes of META and and Nvidia, stock prices rarely reflect the actual state of the underlying business as they oscillate between extreme fear and extreme FOMO as illustrated when one watches the Cartoon Network (CNBC).

Table Big Image - https://www.marketoracle.co.uk/images/2022/Nov/AI-stocks-portfolio-25th.jpg

ASML - $5924 - EGF +3%, 0%, P/E 35.5

If I had to pick one stock that I thought would bounce back strongly form it's bear market low, that stock would NOT be ASML! Given it's literal rip your bear face off 78% rally which is just as much a surprise to me as to most after all it is trading on a high PE of 35.5 with fairly neutral EGF scores of +4% and +2%. I guess it comes down to RELATIVE performance i.e. whilst most semi stocks have deep in the red EGF's ASML is positive over the short and longer term. That and the corporation makes the machines that makes the chips is clearly being discounted for stronger demand than it's semiconductor brethren as they need to BUY the lithography machines before the likes of TSMC can make the processors for it's chip designer clients, a case of ASML stock is first to drop and first and rise given that the stock peaked several months earlier than the likes of TSMC.

However the current rally has run ahead of itself +78% above it's LOW! There is plenty of scope for a post christmas hangover, but on the flip side there has literally been panic buying of this stock given that it rose at a faster pace then it fell! Given that the stock was so over valued it was one that was never at the top of my to accumulate list, still I did manage to lift my exposure to 92% invested with a large chunk of that buying done during the PANIC sell off into October when it spiked down to $362 as I just kept buying that dip. I think ASML is a prime candidate for testing it's all time high during 2023, though I would be surprised if it actually broke out to new all time highs. Clearly someone big is building a position in this critical one of a kind stock which means personally I am going to be reluctant to trim much of ASML and be even more eager to buy any future dips.

(Charts courtesy of stockcharts.com)

And now for the three nightmare Chinese stocks that Emperor Ping has crushed!

This article is an excerpt form my recent analysis on the current state of the embryonic stocks bull market Stocks Analysis Bonanza - GOOG, QCOM, ASML, TCHEY, BABA, BIDU, TSLA, WDC, RBLX, MGNI, COIN, BITCOIN CAPITULATION! that was was first made available to patrons who support my work.So for immediate first access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $4 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat. Lock it in now as $4 per month as this rises to $5 per month in th new year.

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By Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Nadeem Walayat has over 30 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

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